Declaration of Douglas A. Ollivant
Senior Fellow, Future of War Program, New America

I, Douglas A. Ollivant, make the following declaration pursuant to 28 USC, Sec
1746, on the State of Iraqis returning to Iraq:
1. Qualifications. I am a retired Army Infantry officer who served two tours in
Iraq (2004-5, 2006-7), the second as the Chief Planner for Multi-Nation al
Division Baghdad. I served in both the George W. Bush and Barrack Obama
administrations as Director for Iraq at the National Security Council (20089). Since 2012, I have conducted commercial business (primarily as a
partner in Mantid Internationa l, LLC) in Iraq, entering the country 1-4
times/year. In 2016, I travelled to Iraq and the region as part of the Atlantic
Council's FUTURE OF IRAQ project, headed by Ambassador Ryan Crocker
and spoke, in Berlin, with representatives of the Christian community
including Chaldean Patriarch of Baghdad Louis Raphael Sako. I most
recently travelled to Iraq in late August of 2017, first to Baghdad, where I
spoke directly to the Iraqi Prime Minister, and later to Mosul and the
Christian regions, as part of a delegation hosted by the UN High
Commissioner for Refugees. I hold an earned doctorate in political science
from Indiana University. I perform analysis for two non-profit research
centers or "think tanks. 11 I am the Arizona State University Future of War
Senior Fellow at New America and also work, when called, as adjunct staff
at the RAND Corporation, a non-profit Federal Funded Research and
Development Corporation. In both of these institutions, my work centers
around Iraq, Syria, ISIS, post-conflict stabilization and "small wars." With
the exception of the 2010-2011 period (when I worked in Afghanistan), my
work has focused either primarily or singularly on Iraq since 2004. I write
frequently about Iraq, have testified to the Senate Armed Services
committee about Iraq, and have frequently given commentar y on outlets
such as ABC News, MSNBC, CBS, CNN, BBC, and Al Jazeera.
2. I have been asked to give my opinion about the likely treatment and
conditions faced by Iraqis removed from the United States and returned to
Iraq, including those convicted of crimes and members of religious minority
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 groups such as Chaldean Christians. It is my considered opinion thatcontra other declarati ons-thes e individuals and/or groups are unlikely to
face either persecution or torture. I understand "persecution" to be
generally defined as: a threat to the life or freedom of, or the infliction of
suffering or harm upon those who differ in a way regarded as offensive,
and "torture" to be generally defined as: any act of severe pain or suffering,
whether physical or mental, that is intentiona lly inflicted on a person for
such purposes as obtaining informati on, punishment, intimidati on,
coercion, or discrimination. Iraqis returned to Iraq may face harm based on
perceived wealth by organized criminal groups, and those returning after
long stints in the United States will almost certainly experience significant
barriers to integration, possessing neither cultural awareness nor language
skills. But this is quite different from being subjected to persecution and/or
torture.
3. Iraqis returning to Baghdad will certainly be subject to screening. The
reason for their return will not be secret, and the Government of Iraq will
have a responsibility, given the criminal records of some of the returnees,
to ensure that the returnees do not present a danger to Iraqi society. In
addition, some returnees will not have Iraqi identification documents, so
will be held in government custody until these documents can be produced.
Without government documents they will not be able to freely move about
the country (any more than one can fly internally within the U.S. without
governme nt issued ID), but I know of no incidents of Iraqi citizens being
tortured for not having proper documents or because of their criminal
history in the United States-th ey are simply denied forward passage and
may be detained until their identity can be verified. If torture were a
common occurrence based on either of these circumstances, this would be
something reported by NGOs, and I know of no evidence that these reports
exist.
4. Upon release from government custody, Christian returnees will almost
certainly want to move to a location secured by an Iraqi Christian militia.
These militias-a lso part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)-a re
securing the Christian areas in Ninewah province. These militias provide
"insurance" against persecution by any remnants of ISIS that might be able
to act in northern Iraq. These militias are uniformed, armed, disciplined
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 and locally controlled (see picture of a membe r of the Ninewah Plains
Protection Unit, attached as Annex 1, photo taken by author in either
Bartella or Bakhdida in Aug 2017).
5. When ISIS controlled Ninewah province, Iraqi Christians did face
persecution and even genocide. However, the liberatio n of Ninewah
provinc e-the completion of which was formally announced by the Iraqi
government on August 31, 2017-- by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) has
removed the genocidal threat, though ISIS retains the ability to conduct
terrorist attacks. As of this writing, ISIS controls only one city in Kirkuk
province, and some small towns in western Anbar province, neither of
which would be a likely destination for returnin g Iraqi Christians (see Annex
2, ISIS remaining territory in Iraq/Syria from the Institute for the Study of
War). 1515 controlled territory consists of no more than 5% of the country
at present. The ISF will likely clear these few remaining ISIS strongholds by
the end of this calendar year, or early in 2018.
6. The largest Christian enclave is in a collection of villages just east of Mosul,
in Ninewah province. I visited both Bartell a and Bakhdida, two of the major
villages in this cluster, in August of 2017. The villages suffered significant
damage, both from ISIS looting and collateral damage in their liberation.
But both villages have a small populat ion garrisoning them as the
infrastructure is repaired. They are secured by the Ninewah Plains
Protection Unit, which also played a significant role in liberating them. The
living in these villages will be spartan, but safe, for the foreseeable future.
Further, I suspect that the returnees will be welcome there, as Patriach
Sako has expressed his concern that not enough Assyrian Christians will
return to, or stay in, Iraq to maintain a critical mass for his community.
7. The fact that these returnin g Iraqi Christians have been "Westernized"
should be of little concern. That they were in the West makes them almost
certainly innocen t of any ISIS connection, which will be the primary concern
of Iraqi authorities receiving them. Further, Western influences are hardly
unwelcome or uncommon in Iraq. Schools teaching English are common
{the University of Kufa near Najaf teaches classes in English) and the Iraqi
Prime Minister holds a graduate degree from the University of Manchester.
8. I am given to understand that there is great concern about the presence of
the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) and the danger they present to
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 the returnees. I find this concern to be exaggerated. First, the PMUs have
been, since last year, formal ly incorporated into the Government of Iraq).
Second, the PMUs are not monoli thic. Almost all factions within Iraq have
units within the PMUs (e.g., the Yezidi) and I have earlier discussed the
Christian units with the PMUs. The PMUs were established to protec t Iraq
against ISIS, and were a returnee to have ISIS ties, then he might have
concerns with the PM Us. But PMU officials at the highest level have
expressed affinity with Iraq's Christians, and for years spoke about the
importance of liberati ng Mosul's churches. While videos released by an
organization may reflect formal, rather than actual values, that the PMU
office released a video glorifying the (then future) liberati on of a Mosul
church shows the values the PMU officials are trying to instill in their forces.
That video is available at:
https:/ /www.y outube .com/w atch ?v=L3ZTj2gdNiE.
9. When PMU units (and other security forces) have been accused of crimes,
the Iraqi government has responded with investigations. Even in the
liberation of Mosul, about which the Iraqis took fierce national pride, the
Prime Ministe r publicly allowed investigations of alleged abuses to move
forward.
10. I have been asked to opine on whethe r there would be a difference in
treatm ent between Iraqis returni ng on a commercial ticket, and those
arriving en masse in a chartered plane. I would suspe ct-as with any
bureaucratic organi zation -that the Iraqi interio r officials will be able to
respond better to a large group that they are prepared for, rather than
taking in returnees one at a time. However, this is based simply on my
knowledge of bureaucratic processes, and I believe that neither group once their situation is fully under stood- will face any more hardship than is
necessary, as this return will have been negotiated with the U.S.
government.
11. In short, it is my professional opinion, based on long association with,
study of, and travel to Iraq, that Christians of Iraqi origin who are returned
to their country are at low risk of torture or persecution, whethe r at the
hands of the government or non-government actors. The same is true for
Shi a and Sunnis returni ng to Iraq. Though Sunnis suspected of ISIS
affiliation may be subject to scrutiny, a returnee would not. That an
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 individual retur ning to his home coun try after long absence
with no or low
language skills and little cultural attun eme nt will be vulne
rable to crime and
othe r predation borders on the obvious, and is equally true
for Iraq as for
any othe r coun try of retur n. But Iraqi Christians are work
ing hard, banding
together, and making their homes in Ninewah province,
and I believe that
returnees will be accepted in these communities.
12. I believe that my opini on is the consensus opinion of
Iraq coun try experts
who travel regularly to Iraq.
13.1 declare under pena lty of perju ry that the foreg oing is
true and correct.
ctobe r 4, 2017 .

.

A~

. Ollivant, Ph.D.

Senior Fellow, Future of War Project, New America

2 Annexes

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