SPIA 2020 EARLY OUTLOOK GENERAL ELECTION POLL

CONDUCTED BY THE SPIA SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER
MARCH 4, 2020

M.V. HOOD III
PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
AND
DIRECTOR, SPIA SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER

JEFFREY GLAS
LECTURER OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

 Professor M.V. Hood III
180 Baldwin Hall
Athens, Georgia 30602
www.spia.uga.edu

School of Public and International Affairs
Department of Political Science
SPIA Survey Research Center

SPIA Early Outlook General Election Poll
March 4, 2020
Media contact: Professor M.V. (Trey) Hood III
th@uga.edu
706-583-0554
The SPIA Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia fielded a survey of likely 2020
general election voters in the state of Georgia from February 24th through March 2nd. This survey was
designed give an early look at the presidential and special U.S. Senate elections coming up in
November.
In head-to-head matchups between Trump and Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg, and Warren the president
maintained a statistically significant lead in Georgia over all four Democratic candidates
(Buttigieg and Klobuchar were also included, but both withdrew from the race while our survey was
still in the field). Trump had the greatest lead against Sanders (+11.5) and the smallest lead against
Bloomberg (+8.1).
Trump 51.4% vs. Biden 43.1%
Trump 52.4% vs. Sanders 40.9
Trump 49.7% vs. Bloomberg 41.6%
Trump 51.8% vs. Warren 41.6%
In the special U.S. Senate race to be held in November to fill the remainder of now retired Senator
Isakson, Republican Congressman Doug Collins sat atop the leader board with 20.6% of the vote,
followed closely behind by incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler at 19.1%. The difference between these
two candidates, at 1.5 points, is not statistically significant. In other words, Collins and Loeffler are
statistically tied. The Democrat with the highest vote share in our poll in Matt Lieberman with 11.2%.
The remaining votes (14.1%) were split among the other three Democratic candidates and one
Independent in the race. It is clear, however, that many Georgia voters have yet to make up their
minds concerning this contest. A plurality, 31.2%, indicated they were still undecided.
Finally, among likely general election voters in Georgia a majority of those polled (53.5%) somewhat
approved or strongly approved of the Trump’s job as president. On the other side, 45.8% somewhat
approved or strongly disapproved of his performance.

Commit to Georgia   give.uga.edu
An Equal Opportunity, Affirmative Action, Veteran, Disability Institution

 General Information:
The SPIA Poll was conducted Feb. 24-March 2, 2020 and included a total of 1,117 likely general
election voters in Georgia. Likely voters were respondents who had voted in the 2016 and/or the 2018
general election, who indicated they were currently registered to vote in Georgia, and were definitely
or probably going to vote in the 2020 November election. The survey was administered by the School
of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia. Interviews
were conducted in English. A dual-frame statewide random sample consisting of approximately 65%
cell phone numbers and 35% landline numbers was obtained through L2 (L2 is a sampling vendor
that maintains a database constructed from state voter registration lists. Through commercial sources,
phone numbers have been appended to the individual records (registrants) that make up these lists).
The survey results were weighted using iterative proportional raking in order to ensure the sample is
representative of the 2020 general electorate in terms of race, sex, age, and education. The calculated
margin of error for the total sample is +/-2.9 points at the 95% confidence level. This would mean
that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95% confident that the
population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 52.9% and 47.1%.
The formula used to determine if the difference in vote percentages between candidates is statistically
significant is derived from Alastair J. Scott and George A.F. Seber. 1983. “Difference of Proportions
from the Same Survey.” The American Statistician 37(4): 319-320.

 Republican

1.8
93.8
3.0
1.4
0.0

34.6
45.2
18.3
1.9
0.0

94.2
3.8
0.4
1.6
0.0

33.7
52.1
11.7
2.5
0.0

50.6
44.9
2.6
1.9
0.0

57.0
38.5
2.6
1.9
0.0

55.6
42.4
0.4
1.2
0.4

Notes: Entries are column percentages. Candidate names were randomly rotated.

Graduate

Independent

58.6
39.3
1.0
1.0
0.0

35.3
51.5
8.8
4.4
0.0

BA

Democrat

52.9
44.7
1.5
1.0
0.0

4.9
89.8
3.9
1.3
0.0

Some College

Over $150,000

54.2
39.9
4.6
1.3
0.0

72.0
23.3
3.0
1.7
0.0

High School or less

$100,000-149,999

45.7
43.1
6.4
4.8
0.0

65+

$75,000-99,000

44.4
50.9
4.1
0.6
0.0

45-64

$50,000-74,999

53.0
43.9
0.0
3.0
0.0

30-44

$25,000-49,999

Trump
Biden
Neither (vol.)
Undecided (vol.)
Refused

18-29

43.2
52.2
3.2
1.4
0.0

Other

Female

62.2
31.2
4.1
2.3
0.2

Black

Male

51.4
43.1
3.5
1.8
0.1

White

Topline
Trump
Biden
Neither (vol.)
Undecided (vol.)
Refused

Under $25,000

Question: If the election for president were being held TODAY, and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, for
whom would you vote?

56.6
37.9
4.3
1.2
0.0

51.8
41.9
4.5
1.9
0.0

51.9
43.5
2.5
1.7
0.4

34.2
61.0
0.7
4.1
0.0

 Republican

3.4
90.6
3.9
2.1
0.0

34.6
37.5
25.0
2.9
0.0

94.9
2.7
1.1
1.3
0.0

36.4
50.0
11.1
2.5
0.0

51.9
44.0
1.9
2.2
0.0

57.3
36.4
4.6
1.7
0.0

56.6
38.4
2.9
1.7
0.4

Notes: Entries are column percentages. Candidate names were randomly rotated.

Graduate

Independent

61.6
35.8
2.1
0.5
0.0

40.6
52.2
2.9
4.3
0.0

BA

Democrat

53.6
42.5
2.9
1.0
0.0

5.3
88.2
3.6
3.0
0.0

Some College

Over $150,000

55.2
40.9
1.9
1.9
0.0

72.7
20.6
5.2
1.3
0.1

High School or less

$100,000-149,999

46.0
39.7
10.1
4.2
0.0

65+

$75,000-99,000

44.8
46.5
7.0
1.7
0.0

45-64

$50,000-74,999

51.5
45.5
1.5
1.5
0.0

30-44

$25,000-49,999

Trump
Sanders
Neither (vol.)
Undecided (vol.)
Refused

18-29

43.8
48.3
6.0
1.9
0.0

Other

Female

63.7
31.4
2.7
2.1
0.2

Black

Male

52.4
40.9
4.6
2.0
0.1

White

Topline
Trump
Sanders
Neither (vol.)
Undecided (vol.)
Refused

Under $25,000

Question: If the election for president were being held TODAY, and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie
Sanders, for whom would you vote?

57.8
36.0
4.8
1.4
0.0

51.0
40.1
6.4
2.5
0.0

53.4
42.4
2.1
1.7
0.4

37.7
55.5
4.1
2.7
0.0

 Republican

2.5
87.2
8.2
2.1
0.0

28.6
42.9
22.9
5.7
0.0

92.0
6.6
0.5
0.9
0.0

27.8
46.3
21.0
4.9
0.0

48.9
42.2
5.2
3.7
0.0

56.1
39.8
2.2
1.9
0.0

55.6
40.2
3.3
0.8
0.0

Notes: Entries are column percentages. Candidate names were randomly rotated.

Graduate

Independent

52.4
44.0
1.6
2.1
0.0

30.4
47.8
8.7
13.0
0.0

BA

Democrat

53.4
39.3
5.8
1.5
0.0

3.3
83.9
10.2
2.6
0.0

Some College

Over $150,000

52.3
42.5
3.3
2.0
0.0

70.4
23.8
4.0
1.6
0.1

High School or less

$100,000-149,999

46.0
39.6
11.2
3.2
0.0

65+

$75,000-99,000

44.8
46.5
5.8
2.9
0.0

45-64

$50,000-74,999

45.5
47.0
4.5
3.0
0.0

30-44

$25,000-49,999

Trump
Bloomberg
Neither (vol.)
Undecided (vol.)
Refused

18-29

42.8
49.8
5.6
1.9
0.0

Other

Female

58.9
31.0
6.4
3.5
0.2

Black

Male

49.7
41.6
6.0
2.6
0.1

White

Topline
Trump
Bloomberg
Neither (vol.)
Undecided (vol.)
Refused

Under $25,000

Question: If the election for president were being held TODAY, and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Michael
Bloomberg, for whom would you vote?

52.9
40.9
5.3
1.0
0.0

51.6
36.3
8.9
3.2
0.0

51.3
40.7
4.7
3.4
0.0

33.8
57.2
4.1
4.8
0.0

 Republican

3.9
88.5
4.6
2.1
0.0

30.5
44.8
21.9
2.9
0.0

94.2
4.2
0.7
0.9
0.0

33.7
49.1
11.7
5.5
0.0

51.7
44.6
1.5
2.2
0.0

56.7
38.0
3.8
1.4
0.0

56.8
38.7
3.3
0.8
0.4

Notes: Entries are column percentages. Candidate names were randomly rotated.

Graduate

Independent

59.5
37.9
2.1
0.5
0.0

37.7
44.9
7.2
10.1
0.0

BA

Democrat

51.9
44.2
2.9
1.0
0.0

3.9
88.8
4.6
2.6
0.0

Some College

Over $150,000

54.6
42.1
1.3
2.0
0.0

72.6
22.0
4.2
1.1
0.1

High School or less

$100,000-149,999

50.0
38.3
8.5
3.2
0.0

65+

$75,000-99,000

44.8
45.9
6.4
2.9
0.0

45-64

$50,000-74,999

43.9
53.0
1.5
1.5
0.0

30-44

$25,000-49,999

Trump
Warren
Neither (vol.)
Undecided (vol.)
Refused

18-29

44.4
48.7
5.1
1.7
0.0

Other

Female

61.5
32.3
3.5
2.5
0.2

Black

Male

51.8
41.6
4.4
2.1
0.1

White

Topline
Trump
Warren
Neither (vol.)
Undecided (vol.)
Refused

Under $25,000

Question: If the election for president were being held TODAY, and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Elizabeth
Warren, for whom would you vote?

56.6
38.2
4.5
0.7
0.0

50.8
39.0
6.7
3.5
0.0

53.4
41.5
2.5
2.1
0.4

36.8
58.3
2.1
2.8
0.0

 11.0
8.0
10.4
16.0
2.5
6.1
3.1
4.9
38.0
0.0

17.2
17.9
1.5
9.7
4.9
4.1
4.9
1.9
38.1
0.0

22.4
23.3
2.4
9.1
3.1
8.4
2.6
0.5
27.6
0.5

29.2
21.4
2.5
11.9
3.7
5.3
0.0
2.5
23.5
0.0

Graduate

65+

10.0
8.6
1.4
8.6
0.0
10.0
7.1
7.1
45.7
1.4

BA

45-64

1.3
2.3
5.2
20.7
8.5
14.8
5.6
1.0
40.3
0.3

Some College

30-44

29.6
26.9
3.0
7.5
1.7
2.3
1.1
1.7
25.9
0.3

High School or less

18-29

15.4
18.4
4.1
13.9
4.0
7.6
2.2
1.4
32.8
0.2

Other

27.3
19.9
2.7
7.6
2.7
4.3
3.3
2.5
29.2
0.6

Black

Female

20.6
19.1
3.5
11.2
3.5
6.2
2.6
1.9
31.2
0.3

White

Male

(R) Collins
(R) Loeffler
(R) Johnson
(D) Lieberman
(D) Tarver
(D) Warnock
(D) Winfield
(I) Bartell
Undecided (vol.)
Refused

Topline

Question: There will also be a special U.S. Senate election on the ballot this November to fill the vacancy created when Senator Isakson resigned.
In this race candidates from all parties will run against one another. I'm going to read you a list of candidates who have announced they are
running for this seat. Please tell me if this election were being held TODAY, for whom would you vote?

21.2
22.7
5.5
10.3
3.3
5.0
2.9
1.9
27.2
0.0

24.2
16.6
1.6
12.7
2.5
4.1
1.6
2.2
34.4
0.0

19.0
19.0
3.0
11.4
2.5
6.3
3.8
2.1
32.1
0.8

13.8
14.5
2.1
11.0
7.6
13.8
2.8
0.7
33.8
0.0

 Under $25,000

$25,000-49,999

$50,000-74,999

$75,000-99,000

$100,000-149,999

Over $150,000

Democrat

Independent

Republican

(R) Collins
(R) Loeffler
(R) Johnson
(D) Lieberman
(D) Tarver
(D) Warnock
(D) Winfield
(I) Bartell
Undecided (vol.)
Refused

26.6
14.1
0.0
9.4
17.2
4.7
0.0
1.6
26.6
0.0

18.1
19.3
0.0
14.6
0.0
3.5
4.1
0.6
39.2
0.6

12.2
16.5
4.8
16.5
5.3
6.9
1.1
2.7
34.0
0.0

31.4
15.7
1.3
7.8
2.6
11.1
2.0
2.0
26.1
0.0

16.7
26.0
9.3
6.4
2.9
2.9
4.4
4.4
27.0
0.0

26.3
18.9
2.6
11.1
2.1
9.5
3.2
0.5
25.3
0.5

0.7
3.7
3.2
22.8
6.4
15.1
5.3
0.9
41.8
0.2

10.5
17.1
0.0
19.0
8.6
2.9
4.8
8.6
28.6
0.0

38.9
32.1
4.6
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.4
1.5
21.9
0.0

Note: Entries are column percentages. Candidate names were randomly rotated; candidates were identified with party label.

 42.4
15.2
10.6
31.8
0.0

38.0
9.9
4.7
47.4
0.0

38.3
11.7
13.8
35.1
1.1

42.1
13.2
3.9
40.8
0.0

34.5
18.9
7.3
39.3
0.0

38.7
20.9
3.7
36.1
0.5

2.1
4.3
10.1
83.3
0.2

17.1
23.8
24.8
34.3
0.0

71.5
22.4
1.3
4.6
0.2

Note: Entries are column percentages.

Some College

BA

Graduate

65+
48.5
7.9
5.8
37.8
0.0

High School or less

45-64
43.8
14.2
5.0
36.8
0.2

Republican

30-44
35.0
19.9
6.4
38.0
0.8

Independent

18-29
17.8
19.6
16.0
44.8
1.8

Democrat

Other
23.2
10.1
10.1
50.7
5.8

Over $150,000

Black
1.3
8.3
9.9
80.2
0.3

$100,000-149,999

White
54.9
18.5
5.7
20.8
0.3

$75,000-99,000

Female
33.0
12.2
7.8
46.9
0.2

$50,000-74,999

Male
45.2
19.1
6.2
28.1
1.4

$25,000-49,999

Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Don’t know

38.3
15.2
7.1
38.8
0.7

Under $25,000

Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Don’t know

Topline

Question: Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his
job as president?

46.1
11.2
5.7
36.3
0.7

38.2
18.8
8.6
34.1
0.3

34.3
19.1
6.4
40.3
0.0

22.8
12.4
9.0
54.5
1.4

 DEMOGRAPHIC TOPLINES

Percentage
Sex:
Male
Female

43.6
56.4

Race:
White
Black
Other

66.6
27.2
6.2

Age:
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+

15.0
24.6
38.2
22.2

Education:
High school or less
Some college
BA/BS
Graduate school

37.6
28.2
21.2
13.0

Income:
Under $25,000
$25,000-$49,999
$50,000-$74,999
$75,000-$99,999
$100,000-$149,000
Over $150,000

6.7
17.6
19.3
15.6
21.2
19.5

Political Party:
Democrat
Independent
Republican

40.1
9.6
50.3