Rod Rodriguez (00:01): This episode of military matters is brought to you by stars and stripes. Stars and stripes provides independent news and information to the U S military community, including active duty service members, DOD, civilians, veterans, contractors, and their families. Unique among department of defense, authorized news outlets, stars and stripes is governed by the principles of the first amendment, no slants, no agendas. Just the news. Go to stripe.com and see the difference for yourself. That's stripes.com use promo code podcast. Get 50% off your digital subscription. Use promo code podcast. Get 50% off your digital subscription. Rod Rodriguez (00:37): Go to stripes.com now, this episode is also brought to you by international auto logistics. Go to PCs, my pov.com to get all of the information you'll need on storing and picking up your vehicle or check out the just launched I aL mobile app. Just search for PCs, my POV and the Apple store or on Google play. Rod Rodriguez (01:00): Stay tuned after the show to hear about author max Brooks' upcoming book devolution Rod Rodriguez (01:07): militaries have long had to contend not only with the extreme environments, hostile enemies, but also diseases. Every ailment has found its way into the ranks of the military power of the time history has shown us Roman soldiers returning from campaign to Mesopotamia around 190 AD bringing back with them smallpox or as it was known then as Antonine plague after the Roman emperor and today the Coronavirus is taking its toll within the defense department. DOD schools in Italy have been closed sports tournaments in the Pacific canceled and military exercises have been called off or scaled back. PCs transfers to South Korea have been suspended and travel restrictions imposed. You're listening to this podcast because you want to know more about what is popularly called Coronavirus. It feels like there's a lot of information about it and there's no information about it. So what is the coronavirus, what does it look like if you have it and what does this virus have to do with information warfare? How can you do your part in what the world health organization has declared a pandemic? I'm rod Rodriguez, Desmon Farris (02:12): I'm Desmon Farris. Rod Rodriguez (02:14): All that and more on this special edition of military matters Desmon Farris (02:22): unless you have been living under a rock, you have undoubtedly heard about the Corona virus. It's all over the internet on every newspaper and magazine. Every talking head on television is talking about the Corona virus. Rod Rodriguez (02:35): The virus itself is called SARS Cov2. SARS stands for severe acute respiratory syndrome. You probably remember the SARS outbreak from 2002 that was also all over the news. This is called SARS cov2 because it's very similar to the 2002 SARS virus. SARS 1 and 1 belong to the Corona virus family. Corona comes from the Latin word for halo. In this case, it refers to the tiny little crown like spikes on the surface of the virus as seen from top down. When you're looking through a microscope threedimensionally, the virus is covered in those little spikes, those tiny little spikes arer protein spikes that allow the virus to attach itself to the inside of your respiratory system. Once there, the virus gets to work replicating itself and spreading into your mucus, which now you're in turn spreading everywhere. Kamal Kalsi (03:27): We're trying to figure out exactly the mechanism of the, uh, of this, uh, virus. Rod Rodriguez (03:33): That's dr Kamal Kalsi. He's an emergency room doctor working in New Jersey in New York. He's an expert in disaster medicine and also a us army physician. Dr Kalsi will not be speaking on behalf of or as a representative of the army, but he does bring his vast experience to this conversation. Kamal Kalsi (03:51): It seems that it starts to replicate heavily, uh, within the lung tissue. It causes at least on x-ray or CT sort of this patchy ground glass type infiltrate again on the x-ray and cat scans. So it looks like a bad pneumonia. It looks like maybe an almost like an ARDS a, uh, type of picture, acute respiratory distress where, uh, your, your body mounts this, this huge inflammatory response in response to the infection. Uh, and in sometimes the inflammatory response is what, what actually gets you and gets you even sicker and prevents you from oxygenating and uh, you become hypoxic and then you die. Rod Rodriguez (04:36): The coronavirus family is actually pretty chill group for the most part. Most of the viruses in that family are relatively harmless. Again, for the most part, they account for a quarter of all the colds that we get. The Corona virus family is a diverse one. Some viruses in this family live in humans and others live in animals. Where things get weird is when a Corona virus that lives within the animal world mutates and makes the jump to humans. The 2002 SARS and 2012 MERS, the middle East respiratory syndrome, where both jumps from an animal to a human. Evidence is pointing to this SAR cov2 also being connected to a jump from an animal to a human. So SARS cov2 is the virus Rod Rodriguez (05:23): Iris. Now, if you can track the virus and develop the symptoms, you now have cov ID 19. So the virus is called SAR cov to the disease it causes is called cov ID 19 or COVID-19 that stands for coronavirus disease discovered in 2019 it doesn't have a distinguishing name like Wuhan virus or China death, like the middle East respiratory syndrome had calling it COVID 19 was an attempt to keep from stigmatizing the disease. Chinese are not carriers, neither are people from Mohan. Also steering clear of naming the disease after a region or animal prevents folks from thinking, well, I haven't touched the animal or I haven't been to Hans, so I'm good. Right before it was named, it was called the novel coronavirus, which literally means new Corona virus or 2019-nCoV. When we say Corona viruses killing people, that's like saying the Smith family is killing people when in fact it's not the entire Smith family. Just one guy, Billy Smith. In this case Billy Smith is SAR cov2, Desmon Farris (06:31): So you get SARS CoV-2, and you die a horribly painful death, right? Well, no, not exactly. You see, you can get the Corona virus and develop zero symptoms. Congrats. You're not sick. You have the virus, but you're good. And other people they can develop flu like symptoms. Kamal Kalsi (06:52): Uh, the first week of infection for most people will be very, very benign. I mean, you're talking cough, congestion, uh, maybe a sore throat, body aches, you might feel tired and you, you may or may not develop a fever. And if that's all you get, then feeling that way. Uh, please, for the love of God, do not go to the ER. Rod Rodriguez (07:14): Going to the ER will eat up precious time a doctor needs to spend working with patients with life threatening symptoms. You'll also be exposing other people at the ER to your disease. Kamal Kalsi (07:25): You know, if it's just, it's just a mild cold or flu like symptoms that you're experiencing. You know, 97% of the public will be, according to the data, will be just fine. But it seems that a portion of those people, will then after the first five days go on to more serious illness. And so those people will start to develop a more severe cough, high fevers. They'll start getting short of breath. They may develop chest pain and they'll have a sort of more of a pneumonia type of picture and they will, they're the ones that will potentially go into acute respiratory distress and acute respiratory failure in the second week. No. So if you, if you start to feel short of breath or you start to feel chest pain, you feel like you're, you're starting to get very, very sick, then I think you should follow up with your, you know, go see your doctor right away. Uh, but if you're just having mild symptoms, you know, I, I think the best thing to do is to self isolate at least for the next week and until your symptoms are completely gone for the 48 hours. Rod Rodriguez (08:33): So if you're sick with COVID-19, there's a really good chance you're going to be all right by using over the counter medications to treat your symptoms. Kamal Kalsi (08:44): Essentially we just treat them, treat their symptoms with what they would normally take for a cold and flu, you know, stuff that's readily available at your, at your local pharmacy. Uh, you know, with good instructions to, to come back if their get worse. So if they start developing really high fevers, they start getting shorter breath or they start developing chest pain, then they need to come back and then uh, let us check them out. And at that point we would have to uh, take some more significant measures. But for the vast majority of people, they should just be able to treat this with, with what you would normally would treat a cold and flu. Desmon Farris (09:18): Here's the thing about COVID-19 that you need to understand. Most people can contract SARS CoV2 develop COVID-19 and be okay. The mortality rate is relatively low for folks under 50 and healthy. Rod Rodriguez (09:34): But here's the part you need to consider. If you're asking yourself what's the big deal about a disease, I'm likely to survive. The big deal is actually two parts. The first part is all about the spread. Kamal Kalsi (09:47): This is, uh, this is more virulent. And so it is, it is more infectious and it is more lethal than your common cold or flu. There's a value that that, uh, that's called the, the R0, describes the infectivity of a particular agent. Rod Rodriguez (10:08): The R0 value is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious and infectious disease is, it's also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection spreads to new people. It reproduces itself. The R0 number tells you the average number of people who will catch the disease from one contagious person. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection and haven't been vaccinated. Like all of us. If a disease has an, R0 value of five, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of five other people in their community. Kamal Kalsi (10:44): So the are not value of, of flu, you know, roughly between a 1 and 1.2. The, the infectivity rate of, of this is somewhere between 1 and 2. Uh, we think it may be, uh, closer to 2, but some of that data is still coming in. Something like a measles has a infectivity rate that is significantly higher, but you know, this is this, this, this is not something that we, we really should be waiting around to collect data on. I think we have enough data from, uh, all over the world to show us that this is a, this is going to be something bad. Um, and this is, uh, something that we do don't take drastic measures for. Uh, right now is, is going to leave a, a, a lot of people dead unfortunately. Rod Rodriguez (11:36): So part one of what's the big deal about a disease I'm likely to survive is that the are not value or reproduction rate is likely higher than the flu. We don't know exactly because we can't test for COVID-19 everywhere. The only people getting tested are with the worst symptoms. So it's very possible that the R0 value is way higher. Rod Rodriguez (11:59): Part two of what's the big deal about a disease, I'm likely to survive. Well, it's not about you. It's about the population that is most vulnerable to the worst parts of this disease. Desmon Farris (12:12): Initial reports indicated that it was people over 50 with respiratory issues that were most vulnerable, which is still true, but anyone with respiratory issues, regardless of age, is in danger of COVID-19 young and old with compromised immune systems and preexisting health issues are in the high risk categories. Rod Rodriguez (12:34): So you blow off the warnings and you go out, don't wash your hands, contract the virus, go to work, give the virus to a coworker whose child is battling cancer. You might've just passed SARS cov2, to a child with a compromised immune system or to an elderly person on the bus going to their doctor's appointment or maybe to your own parent or grandparent. Desmon Farris (12:57): And if you're still thinking what's the big deal about a disease, I'm likely to survive. Thank again, Kamal Kalsi (13:03): I don't think you're out of the clear, even, even if you're a young, healthy person. A, we know, again, this just based on the data that's coming in, 2% of those that are hospitalized are are kids. And I think earlier today with uh, some seven year old child was, was uh, admitted and diagnosed with coronavirus here in our local area. I think the first person that was diagnosed here in New Jersey was a 32 year old, uh, physician assistant I think he's, He's given a few interviews. He doesn't, it doesn't look too good. And you know, we, we all hope he, uh, he pulls out of this. Okay. But, you know, I think just because you're otherwise young and healthy and have no comorbidities, it does not make you immune to developing complications. You know, it's, you know, young, healthy people are getting sick. And what we saw in, in China and other parts of the world, young, healthy people did die. You know, one of the first first doctors to sort of sound the alarm in, in Wuhan, uh, actually died from this. And he was a, as far as, as far as I know, a young healthy individual. Rod Rodriguez (14:11): So we know this disease spreads fast and it's deadly. So how was the department of defense handling this crisis to help us understand this question, we turned to reporter Elizabeth Howe from the online news organization connecting vets. Elizabeth Howe (14:25): We're seeing more preventative measures across the department of defense. Now the air force and Navy have barred the public from attending graduation ceremonies. The Army's Europe commander is working from home and the secretary of defense is hosting meetings in the Pentagon by teleconferencing separate rooms together. So instead of having 30 people all in one room, he's got 10 in one 10 in one 10 in one and they're teleconferencing the rooms together. These are just some of the things that are being implemented across the department of defense at different installations. Desmon Farris (14:52): So the DOD is doing pretty much what the CDC and the world health organizations are recommending, teleconferencing and minimizing large gatherings. Elizabeth Howe (15:01): There haven't been any force wide regulations passed down at this time. It's up to each installation commander to implement whatever policies they deem necessary. There are also many installations that have been designated as quarantine sites. We've been seeing that from the very beginning. Most recently four bases in California, Texas and Georgia were designated as sites for the passengers leaving the grand princess cruise shuts the ship. That's been being held off the coast of California Rod Rodriguez (15:25): back in early February. Secretary of defense. Mark Esper and he memo identified several military installations near 11 airports that would be used as tertiary locations for COVID-19 quarantine facilities. So HHS, the health and human services has a first and second resort already for housing quarantined individuals. The third resort are those identified military basis. Desmon Farris (15:49): The secretary of defense wrote in his memo quote, DOD personnel will not be in direct contact with the evacuees and will minimize contact with personnel supporting the evacuees should routine monitoring of evacuees identify ill individuals. HHS has procedures in place to transport them to a local civilian medical facility. HHS will also ensure that no evacuated personnel are transferred to any DOD installation if they are infected or ill. Elizabeth Howe (16:20): There was a Pentagon press briefing on Monday to discuss the current state of the situation and according to the joint staff surgeon, the risk level is low. Not sure what that means exactly, but they wanted to be very clear about that. So he said, quote, to frame this from a medical standpoint, the immediate risk to our force remains low across the force and I want to be very clear about that. We've had a handful of cases around the world. No one is seriously ill at this point. Everyone that has been diagnosed is being appropriately treated, getting the care that they need and quote, which is interesting because they're canceling operations, stalling PCs moves and doing a lot of things that impact where military personnel are and how well they're trained. But the Pentagon officials have said that they're confident we can all continue to do our jobs while also practicing preventative measures. Desmon Farris (17:06): The army is looking at COVID-19 first and foremost from the position of how it affects the individual soldier. Like we said, healthy people under 50 are in a category that is not likely to develop complications from COVID-19 symptoms, Rod Rodriguez (17:21): not impossible, just unlikely. But remember two parts, the spread or the R0 value and it's not just about you. So as far as direct impact, the joint staff surgeon likely views the impact on operations and readiness as low, but the military isn't ignorant to how dangerous the virus is. That's why they're working hard to develop a vaccine. Elizabeth Howe (17:46): As of Monday morning, department of defense had 12 up and running and performing the test and there were half a dozen active duty personnel who were being tested. They said they were being investigated for a COVID-19 whatever investigated means those numbers are very likely to have already changed since then. However, I'm haven't had an update from the Pentagon on how many active duty personnel have received positive results. They also wanted to clarify that the vaccine Walter Reed army Institute of research is working on is months away. It has to be developed and then it has to go through human tests. Uh, so in the meantime, wash your hands, keep your distance. Desmon Farris (18:20): What about our veteran population? This pandemic is occurring when there's talk about veterans potentially losing access to on base doctors Elizabeth Howe (18:29): from the veteran's affairs side, at least six veterans have tested positive for COVID-19. That's as of Monday. Uh, according to the department of veterans affairs on last Thursday, VA hospitals and nursing homes began restricting visitors and limiting guests and they've also started screening all staff and patients who showed symptoms. About half of VA patients are older than 65 which is the population most at risk for the infection. According to the CDC VA released info this week about its virtual care visit capabilities through my health.va.gov the release advised veterans with fevers, colds, coughs and flu like symptoms to use. This resource includes secure messaging and video appointments so instead of going into a doctor's office, veterans can use this resource. Um, you even receive prescriptions from their doctors. The VA did emphasize that this service is not for emergency situations. Interestingly, VA plays a rather crucial role in all this. They are one of four federal agencies that are part of the national disaster medical system along with the department of defense, department of Homeland security and H H S. together those four agencies should this be declared a national medical emergency are responsible for deploying clinical staff and setting up mobile medical units. VA secretary Robert Wilkie told members of Congress last week that VA trains for these situations year-round, their testing processes and checking supplies as we speak. Rod Rodriguez (19:50): With all the issues the VA has been trying to address. In addition, they're going through some internal leadership changes. It's going to be interesting to say the least to see how the VA can work with other agencies to fight COVID-19 while addressing the issues it already has. After the break, we'll talk with the author of world war Z max Brooks. What does a fictional zombie outbreak have to do with COVID-19 are we really doing all that we can to fight this pandemic and should you buy up all the medical mask and toilet paper you can get your hands on? I'm going to let you know right now. Don't do that, but after the break we'll tell you why you shouldn't. Desmon Farris (20:30): This episode of military matters is brought to you by stars and stripes. Stars and stripes provides independent news and information to the U S military community, including active duty service members, DOD, civilians, veterans, contractors, and their families. Unique among department of authorized the news Rod Rodriguez (20:47): news outlets, stars and stripes is governed by the principles of the first amendment, no slants, no agendas, just use promo-code podcast and save 50% on your digital subscription. Desmon Farris (21:02): Go to stripes.com and see the difference for yourself. That's stripes.com. Rod Rodriguez (21:07): when your orders come in and it's time to make a plan to move or store your personally owned vehicle. International auto logistics is here as the number one resource for us service members, P O V needs. Just use their website to get started at www.PCsmypov.com to get all of the information you'll need on storing and picking up your vehicle or check out the just launched I aL mobile app. Just search for PCs, my POV in the Apple store or on Google play. Rod Rodriguez (21:41): world war Z is hands down one of my favorite books. If you haven't read it, you're likely familiar with the film of the same name starring Brad Pitt. What made the book So interesting to me was how serious and honest the author took the zombie virus and it spread. Since writing world war Z, author max Brooks has worked with the CDC and the military to bring his insight from the fictional world of zombies to the world of COVID-19. Max Brooks (22:08): Well, this was crazy. Uh, back in January I was laid up with the flu even though I'd had a flu shot. Thank God it could've been a lot worse. Uh, but in those few days I was recovering. I got an email from, uh, Admiral Phil wisecup and Admiral wisecup was the president of the Naval war college when world war Z came out and he put world war Z on the reading list there. So he was my introduction into the modern military. He brought me in to talk. And from that got me speaking at strategic studies groups and now got me the fellowship at the modern war Institute at West point. So Admiral wisecup sent me this email about Corona virus in China and he said, have you seen this? And as I started to look at it, I realized, Oh God, this is really bad. Because when I wrote world war Z, I based it on SARS, that's why I put my zombie plague in China, because to have a plague really get out of control. It's not enough to have a massive population. You need a first rate infrastructure. That's, that's the next thing you need. That's why so many African diseases haven't wiped us out yet. They can't get out of the jungle. They get to a village, they stay in the village long enough for help to come. So China is the perfect storm, massive population. A large amount of that population is recently urbanized. It has a hyperspeed infrastructure transportation network. But the most important thing is a government willing to suppress the truth. That's the most important part of a plague. And that's why SARS got out of control. And that's why I put my fictional zombie plague there. But I had imagined we had learned our lesson, I wasn't looking forward, I was looking back and suddenly here we are again, a hundred, a thousand times worse than SARS. Desmon Farris (23:54): Unlike a zombie outbreak, COVID-19 feels almost invisible. We don't see the streets full of shuffling COVID-19 infected semihumans. Instead, victims of the disease are nameless numbers and statistics on maps of the United States and the world showing areas with infection. Rod Rodriguez (24:13): In the book world war Z, the governments of the world are slow to react to the growing threat of a virus. It's only after it's gotten out of control that there is a sense of urgency to regain control. At its core, the book is about a national security threat that isn't taken seriously. Max Brooks (24:31): The, I think this is, this has to be a huge wake up call for the gutting of our national security. Uh, when you talk about these carriers, about evacuation from sea, Rod Rodriguez (24:41): one of the ways that civilians are evacuated overseas in the zombie world is by aircraft carriers and other Naval ships. Max Brooks (24:47): This is the problem. We have gutted our merchant fleets because right now it's all about the bottom line. It's all about profits. Uh, it's the same thing with disaster logistics. I was at the United States Homeland security, nuclear scenario, vibrant response, and I was told by a very high ranking member of the defense logistics agency that we have, We have absolutely removed all our stockpiling. You know, up until the end of the cold war, we used to have warehouses everywhere with emergency supplies in case we got nuked. The good news was if there was a tornado or an earthquake, boom, you got those supplies ready to go, those warehouses are gone because it was expensive to keep them. So now we, we do a thing where we buy our emergency supplies on the day of the crisis from the big box stores. But here's a little tidbit. Nobody knows about those big box stores. They don't have warehouses either. They have to turn their stock over every 24 hours. So there's no back room at the Walmart, which means if we have a crisis and God forbid the crisis interrupts the flow of same day delivery, that basically is our economy. We've got nothing. That's the problem. It's the same thing for ships. A year ago I wrote an article about this, uh, about, I believe it was South Korea's merchant fleet. They had too many. They laid them off. Well, what if we needed those ships to evacuate South Korean civilians on the Dawn of an next Korean war? We need to be able to not be so greedy and take a percentage of our wealth and just put it aside for stuff that we might need in a crisis. Desmon Farris (26:28): This issue of the U S being in a state of being ill prepared to handle a pandemic according to max comes down to policies that have been around long before this administration and what could be considered a national mindset that national security Max Brooks (26:44): isn't important to the average citizen anymore. I'm going to, I'm going to say two things that may be a little controversial. I would say that we might not have the most competent captain behind the ship of state right now. But I will say that that ship of state has been gutted for many years before this captain ever came aboard. You know, as, as much as this current captain is to blame, I think for causing unnecessary panic. I think that the gutting of our institutions like the CDC and also public health in this country, you can't lay it out all on the steps of the white house. We'd been doing this for years and years and years. And I think part of that is ground up. I think part of that is we have a generation now, the grandparents, America's grandparents have grown up vaccinated so they don't have that gut reaction to disease the way my parents and my grandparents did. It would have been incomprehensible in my parents' day to not vaccinate their children. And so I think that fear has left the public consciousness, which then gives our leaders authority to gut the CDC, not invest in hospitals, doctors, nutrition programs, good nutrition programs. Uh, honestly, I think part of that is a much bigger picture. Part of that is the divorce of the American people from national security. You know, at the end of world war II we had a wholeness of nation concept like Israel still has everything from physical fitness programs in schools to nutrition programs to education. Everything was based on the fact that we may have to go to war again and everyone's going to have to do their part and for the last half a century we've been dismantling that and now we're reaping a bitter crop. Rod Rodriguez (28:35): That bitter crop that max is talking about is related to knowing this virus was coming weeks, even months in advance as stories came trickling than flooding out of China. Desmon Farris (28:45): Hindsight is really important here because the virus is in Ebola and it isn't smallpox. Those are stacked. The body's outside kinds of diseases that won't stay invisible for long and many ways COVID-19 can be seen as a dress rehearsal for something way worse to come. Rod Rodriguez (29:03): One of the biggest problems with COVID-19 has been the messaging. In one hand we have, it's fine, no worse than a cold wash. Your hands will be okay. But on the other hand, we're locking down the entire country of Italy. So is the lockdown of an entire country panic or a reasonable precaution is just telling folks to wash their hands and they'll be okay A form of denial? Max Brooks (29:25): you know, and this is, this is why we have to be very careful to not tip in either way between denial and panic because panic comes from too much denial. When you don't prepare, you don't educate, you stick your head in the ground long enough, then you stick your head up and look around and it's too late and you're unprepared. That's why people panic. So right now our best weapon is education. And as with all my writings, I go to history, I look right back on history because I lived through a plague. I'm 47. I lived through AIDS and we stopped AIDS for wiping this country out with public education. We still don't have a vaccine. We still have a way to take care of it. Really. It's, uh, if you've got it, you can keep it at Bay for the rest of your life. But when I was a kid, we had nothing. What we did have was an Amish Admiral looking guy called C. Everett Koop. He was surgeon general. He was on TV, it seemed to me every night. And we sent out a pamphlet to every single American home educating them about AIDS. Here's how it's transmitted, here's how you can stop it. Boom. And we did, we didn't wipe it out, but we kept it at Bay. And I think right now, public education, calm, clear facts is what's going to keep us safe. Desmon Farris (30:53): Dr Kalsi, Kamal Kalsi (30:54): you know, I think we should have a healthy, healthy level of fear. You know, I don't think it helps anybody to panic, but I do think there is a, there should be a healthy element of fear in all of this. And, uh, you know, that fear stems from not knowing, you know, we could have potentially gotten ahead of this thing and collected enough data to determine, you know, the, the, the infectivity rate, uh, get a good handle on the lethality rate. Uh, and so that we could make better projections and better models, but now we just sort of, we will have to be reactive instead of being proactive and then we'll just have to mitigate the tide of infections that is, uh, headed our way. We only have maybe about a hundred thousand ventilators roughly in the U S uh, so if you, again, if you just, if you do the math, we will not have enough ventilators to take care of the people that are sick. Uh, the or that will become sick from all these infections. So a lot more people will, will die unnecessarily, uh, because we just simply won't have the medical resources to, uh, uh, to help them. Italy is going to, to see that probably sometime next week, uh, where their medical resources will be overcome. And I think we are probably, uh, if I, if I had to guess, we're probably four to six weeks away from something like that where we, we just won't have the medical resources to, uh, to save the very, very sick people. Um, because our ICU is, are all basically already full with flu cases. So that's, that's what's sort of scary about it. You know, with a little preparation, I think we could have potentially pushed off this uh, pandemic, uh, maybe pushed it to the right a little when uh, uh, when our ICU beds would have been a little more available. Rod Rodriguez (33:00): There are lots of talking heads out there. Most of them reside in your social media feed. There are people making signs, memes and videos telling you what you should think about this disease. Max Brooks (33:11): Listen to the quiet professionals. Do not listen to anyone who might have political skin in the game and is either going to gin up panic or going to suppress the real facts because they don't want to lose political points. Listen to the doctors, listen to the scientists, listen to the institutions, the CDC, they're doing the best they can. I listen to them. I listen to the world health organizations, I listen to the surgeon general. These are the folks that I get my facts from because the problem is panic can tip over very, very easily. And by the way, you know, this whole thing in Yonkers, the idea of the army breaking because they're hearing terror Rod Rodriguez (33:53): in world war Z, a breakdown in the morale of troops fighting the infected zombies occurs when the system's designed for soldiers to communicate rapidly and to share information becomes the mechanism by which they witnessed their sister units being eaten alive by the zombies. Max Brooks (34:09): I didn't just make that up. You know, part of that came from a wonderful novel called red army written by captain Ralph Peters about Ivan attacking NATO in the 1980s and I'm just going to spoil it. Here we go. They win by building an entire West German town, rebuilding it somewhere in the Soviet union, right down to the window panes and then burning it and then filming it and broadcasting that on West German television and the West German see that? And they freak out and they're sue for peace and they'd break up NATO. That's how I been wins, not with an ocean of T-80 tanks. And so I think right now information is, are best weapon against COVID-19. Kamal Kalsi (34:53): You know, I don't know, uh, that the right people are freaking out about it. We, uh, you know, we are probably where we are today is, is I think where Italy was maybe three or four weeks ago. So we've got some sporadic, uh, people popping up, uh, uh, with positive tests. You know, we're, we don't have enough tests to actually test. And the, the only tests that are being used are the ones on the, on the sickest patients. So, uh, the number of infections, this is actually way, way under reported based on the numbers that we have. It seems like, uh, we have a you know, anywhere from it. Three to, uh, three to 5%, uh, lift salary rate here in the U S and we are, no, we, we spend the most healthcare dollars in the world and we have supposedly the most modern medical system and, uh, and, and we're, you know, we're failing. Uh, we're, we're absolutely failing on this, uh, response here. Desmon Farris (35:56): So what happens next? What can we expect from the next couple of days or weeks? Max Brooks (36:02): You know, I, I honestly don't know. I think this week is going to be very telling this week and the next week will be very telling because that's when the test kits are going to start to make their way throughout the country because right now we're fighting a war and the enemy's microscopic and in every war you need good Intel and we are really deep in the fog of war right now. We simply don't know how far this disease has spread. We are not able to track it. We don't know who has it. I do think we're taking some good proactive measures like canceling big social events and I don't know if we have to cancel the little ones, the local ones we might have to, but I do think big conventions like the ones I was supposed to go to. Listen, I have a book coming out in two months. I was literally about to launch it at Emerald city con this week I wrote a big foot book and I am not allowed to go to Bigfoot's house in Seattle and talk about it. I pulled out and then two days later the con was canceled South by Southwest. Is canceled. I was about to go to history con at the end of April. Cancel until we know more. I don't think that's such a bad idea to cancel international, especially international events, people coming from all over the world cramming it and then going home. That's a great way to spread diseases. Kamal Kalsi (37:15): This is just my, you know, this is just my opinion. Uh, so doesn't represent the position of DOD or is this just me? So we are, we're definitely not doing all that we can do. We should be instituting a targeted quarantine, if not perhaps broader, a more coordinated quarantines we don't have a handle on which, uh, which medications actually work to to treat this. Although some of that data is coming in, we know that about 5% of people that will get sick with this will be in critical care. Well, we're, we'll need some sort of critical care. Uh, and if you, if you just do the math, we think that this is going to be probably a little more infectious. Uh, have a, a little bit higher infectivity rate compared to the flu and it may have a lethality rate of anywhere from 0.5 to uh, maybe close to 3%. You know, that's, that's hundreds of thousands of people that will be needing a ventilator and hundreds of thousands of people that potentially will, uh, will die. Maybe, maybe millions on some of the, uh, on some, the most dire projection. Rod Rodriguez (38:37): COVID-19 is a serious threat. Leaders at all levels are beginning to take very seriously. Washington DC just declared a state of emergency as have California, Maryland, Utah, Kentucky, New York, Oregon, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Washington state, Massachusetts and New Jersey. Desmon Farris (38:56): So the world health organization declared a pandemic and we have multiple States of emergency. What can we do? What can you do that's within your power? Rod Rodriguez (39:06): First, let's talk about what not to do. Let's talk about surgical masks and toilet paper. Kamal Kalsi (39:12): If you're sick, then you should wear a mask because that will help keep the virus out of the air when you cough and it'll help reduce the aerosolization of the virus when you call. But for the general public, I don't think the masks really are very helpful. Um, I don't think they really work all that well, especially when you're not shown or trained to how to wear them or fit them. Uh, you know, I don't, I don't think the general public really needs to wear these. Uh, I think we should leave them for healthcare personnel and other folks that, uh, are at very, very high risk. Uh, and we are facing shortages of these masks and other personal protective equipment. Don't, don't hoard toilet toilet paper. You know, our civilization in our society, uh, will go on and you know, this is just another bump in the road, you know, things that are going to be okay. But we, we really do need to get the ball rolling on this, uh, larger coordinated effort. Um, and I do strongly feel that mass quarantines is one of those weapons that we have against, uh, this threat to which we currently have no vaccine and no, no proven treatment. Rod Rodriguez (40:24): We can treat the symptoms, but we don't have any treatment for the disease itself or a vaccine. Desmon Farris (40:30): You've heard it before, but here it is again. Wash your hands. Try not to touch your face. Stay away from gatherings. In fact, try to stay home and avoid travel and take this seriously. This isn't some overblown political gambit. Real lives are on the line and you can make a real difference just by following those simple rules of hygiene. It's not just about hoping for the best. It's about taking real action so that you can make the best happen. Kamal Kalsi (40:59): I think we can hope for the best, right? Like we can hope that this is really only as bad as the flu, which case maybe we'll, we'll see a death rate on the order of about 30 to 60,000 people, but I don't think public policy should be pinned on hopes and dreams. You know, I think public policy has a higher, do you have a higher responsibility and you can't just simply wish that things are better hope that things are going to get better. You have to have a plan of attack, right? You, you would, you would never go into battle thinking, gosh, I hope the enemy doesn't come over that Hill. Cause that would really, really suck, you know, we would, we would not have prepared for that. I. Max Brooks (41:48): think that the military, and this is going to be, this is going to be really hard. I think the military needs to take a good long, hard look on germ warfare because if I were the enemy and I wanted to take out the U S military, and when I say take out, I don't mean having to kill, I mean removing the U S military from the world stage germs is how I would do it because we've shown the world in 1991 don't screw with us in the Prussian mechanized battlefield. Desert storm showed the world if you meet us on the battlefield we'll annihilate you. We thought we scared the world off. What we did was taught them not to meet us on the battlefield. We taught them to be asymmetric. And so that's why the rest of the world, while we're still building big, shiny world war, two style military weapons, they're investing in proxy Wars, intelligence Wars, and possibly germ Wars. Because for me, the best ways to remove the U S military is to start a germ attack. Maybe not even within the ranks. Maybe at home. You know, you try to keep unit cohesion when your soldiers are getting emails back home that their children are sick. We know, especially the Russians are so good at synchronized asymmetric warfare. If I was working for the GRU, uh, I wouldn't have to spread a plague in America. I would have to spread disinformation about that play. Because think about it now, if I'm, if I'm sitting in my little basement in Dzerzhinsky square, I didn't spread COVID-19 around the world, but all I have to do is plant some very carefully crafted messages on social media that COVID-19 is mutating and it is starting to kill children. And the government doesn't want you to know, you know, our enemies are going to exploit this if we're not careful. And that's why we really need to get a handle on unified messaging and strict Orthodox adherence to the scientific facts. Because if we don't, then our enemies will use this against us. Desmon Farris (43:55): We hope you walk away from this episode empowered with knowledge and a sense of understanding of this disease. Rod Rodriguez (44:02): I want to thank dr Kalsi for his tremendous work on the front lines in the ER against a virus that has so much potential to harm, not just us, but him as well. I don't know if you could tell, but he was tired when we conducted our interview. I could hear the strain over his voice. There are thousands of medical professionals out there fighting this fight right now, so listen to what they're telling us. Listen to what they're telling you. They've got boots on the ground and they're trying to guide us all through this very trying time. Desmon Farris (44:32): We also want to thank max Brooks and Elizabeth Howe for contributing to this episode, their expertise and research. Rod Rodriguez (44:40): To learn more about Elizabeth Howe and connecting vets. Go to connecting vets.com there you'll find articles, podcasts, and links to the veteran news that matters to you. Max talked about information warfare and he said something that really resonated with me considering stars and stripes is currently on the budget chopping block. Max Brooks (44:58): I think stars and stripes is one of the most important weapons the U S military has in its arsenal in an age of gray zone warfare, hybrid warfare, information warfare. We need stars and stripes as certainly as we need all the tanks and artillery and aircraft carriers and B-1Bs. We need to fight misinformation propagated from our enemies and our enemies are a decade ahead of us. Losing stars and stripes would be like losing NORAD on the Eve of the Cuban missile crisis. Desmon Farris (45:38): This was a special edition of military matters. Military matters is available everywhere you can find podcasts. We're also@stripesdotcomgotostripes.com use promo code podcast and get 50% off your digital subscription to stars and stripes online. Go to stripes.com use promo code podcast and get 50% off. Rod Rodriguez (45:59): Thank you to our sponsor, international auto logistics. Go do PCs, my pov.com to get all of the information you'll need on storing and picking up your vehicle or check out the just launched IaL mobile app. Just search for PCs, my POV in the Apple store or on Google play. This was military matters. Rod Rodriguez (46:18): Follow us on Twitter at stripes M M pod. I'm also on Twitter at rod pod rod and you can find Desmon at DpodFerris. All the links and social media will be in the show notes. This episode was written and produced by me, rod Rodriguez. Additional production assistance by Desmon Ferris, executive producer Benjamin Bateman. This was the stars and stripes production. Keep listening to hear more about max Brooks' new book, devolution follow max on Twitter at max Brooks author. We'll see you at the next episode. Max Brooks (46:51): Well, the premise is, and this goes right back to what I do with all my books is facts first. Uh, the premise is that there is a very high tech, high end ecocommunity in the cascade mountains and it's sort of the new Levittown if the new model for how we should all live with solar panels, telecommuting, drone deliveries of groceries, uh, smart homes that basically if something breaks the home, knows it, sends a signal, the uh, the handyman comes into his electric driverless van boom. So you could essentially have all the comforts of the upper East side of Manhattan and live in the middle of the wilderness. And it's a wonderful way of living until Mount Rainier erupts. Max Brooks (47:36): And so not only are our community members stranded, they're forgotten because the volcano blows out in the direction of Seattle causes one of the greatest natural disasters in American history. So they are totally forgotten and winter is coming. And like I said, these are highly educated, highly paid David Sedaris fans who don't know how to change a light bulb. They don't even have a tool kit. So they have to learn how to try and survive and prepare for the winter. And that is the least of their problems. Because the volcano has also driven a pack of very large, very hungry, Sasquatch creatures out of their traditional hunting grounds. And winter is coming and they need to stock up calories for the winter, and they come up against what is essentially a pen of sheep. So these people have to not only try to survive, but fight for their lives with no weapons of any kind. You can always follow me on max Brooks, author on Twitter, and I've got devolution, the novel, which is coming out, uh, in May 12th. You can actually preorder it on Amazon right now. And what I apparently, what's so cool about Amazon is if they reduce the price, they reduce what you've already bought it for. So thank you Amazon.