THE DES MOINES REGISTER/MEDIACOM IOWA POLL SELZER & COMPANY Study #2212 800 Iowa adults, including 667 likely voters in the 2020 general election March 2-5, 2020 Margin of error: ± 3.5 percentage points for all Iowa adults Weighted by age, sex, and congressional district Margin of error: ± 3.8 percentage points for likely voters Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. In general, do you think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track? Mar-20 Feb-19 Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Jul-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Feb-16 Feb-15 Sep-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13 Feb-13 Sep-12 Feb-12 Feb-11 Sep-10 Feb-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Right direction Wrong track Not sure 46 44 10 39 34 40 29 32 36 21 25 29 23 23 23 22 30 37 40 30 32 30 31 35 41 43 36 51 55 49 60 56 51 71 65 60 65 68 70 68 60 51 54 64 58 63 61 58 50 49 53 10 11 12 10 11 13 8 10 11 12 9 7 10 10 12 6 6 10 7 8 7 9 8 11 __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 1 What about here in Iowa? Do you think things in the state are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track? Mar-20 Feb-19 Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Jul-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Feb-16 Feb-15 Sep-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13 Feb-13 Sep-12 Feb-12 Feb-11 Sep-10 Feb-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Right direction Wrong track Not sure 57 30 13 58 47 49 47 44 42 48 45 56 55 52 55 52 56 58 60 52 40 39 34 34 48 45 44 32 42 39 40 43 41 39 40 30 31 37 33 36 34 28 31 38 47 52 57 57 41 44 45 10 11 13 13 13 18 13 15 14 14 11 12 12 10 14 9 10 13 9 9 9 11 11 11 I’m going to mention some elected officials. For each, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way each is handling the job. (Rotate list.) Kim Reynolds as governor Kim Reynolds as lieutenant governor Joni Ernst as U.S. senator Not Sure Approve Disapprove Mar-20 Feb-19 Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Jul-17 Feb-17 Feb-12 54 33 13 59 46 47 51 46 44 39 32 38 33 30 24 24 15 9 17 20 19 30 32 46 Mar-20 Feb-19 Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Jul-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Feb-16 Feb-15 47 38 15 57 47 51 48 50 48 50 43 38 30 31 33 38 37 37 28 31 34 13 22 16 15 13 15 23 25 28 __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 2 Chuck Grassley as U.S. senator Mar-20 Feb-19 Sep-18 Approve Disapprove Not Sure 55 34 12 58 50 33 36 9 14 __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 3 Jan-18 Dec-17 Jul-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Feb-16 Feb-15 Sep-14 Jun-13 Feb-13 Sep-12 Feb-12 Feb-11 Sep-10 Feb-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 49 51 53 54 56 57 64 59 60 62 62 60 65 56 54 57 57 66 75 40 40 35 37 30 28 22 25 27 22 23 28 21 30 28 32 30 20 12 11 9 12 9 14 15 14 16 13 16 15 12 14 14 18 11 13 14 13 Donald Trump as president of the United States Mar-20 50 47 4 Feb-19 46 50 4 Sep-18 39 56 5 Jan-18 44 51 5 I'm going to mention the names of some people in the Dec-17 news. For each 35 name I read, 60 please tell me5 if your feelings toward the person are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostlyJul-17 unfavorable,43or very unfavorable. If you5 don’t know the person, 52 Feb-17list.) 42 49 9 just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate Combined Favorable Joni Ernst Combined Very Unfavorable Favorable Mostly Favorable Mostly Very Not Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure Mar-20 Feb-19 Feb-14 Jun-13 46 36 20 26 15 21 18 56 13 7 29 14 5 23 3 1 33 10 6 16 7 3 13 7 2 14 73 88 Michael Franken, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate and retired navy admiral Mar-20 17 10 5 12 6 4 73 Kimberly Graham, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate and children’s advocate Mar-20 19 12 6 13 7 5 70 Mar-20 Feb-19 Feb-12 Nov-09 Sep-09 Jul-04 Feb-03 Jun-02 Jun-98 54 33 24 31 15 17 13 60 61 64 64 70 67 67 78 31 26 30 28 16 12 13 9 29 18 15 24 27 24 28 34 31 43 49 40 43 43 39 44 16 17 21 17 12 9 8 7 15 9 9 11 4 3 5 2 8 13 6 8 14 21 20 13 Joni Ernst, a state senator Chuck Grassley Charles Grassley, U.S. senator U.S. Senator Charles Grassley Senator Charles Grassley U.S. Senator Charles Grassley Combined Favorable Theresa Greenfield, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate and urban planner Theresa Greenfield, former candidate for Congress in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District Eddie Mauro, Democratic Combined Very Unfavorable Favorable Mostly Favorable Mostly Very Not Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure Mar-20 14 13 5 9 7 6 73 Feb-19 8 4 3 6 3 1 88 Mar-20 12 14 3 9 8 6 74 __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 4 candidate for U.S. Senate and businessman Kim Reynolds Mar-20 Feb-19 52 31 22 30 17 14 17 59 31 24 36 17 14 10 Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 45 48 44 37 32 33 17 14 14 28 34 30 19 17 16 18 15 17 18 20 23 Feb-17 44 24 14 30 14 10 32 Mar-20 51 47 32 18 9 38 2 Sep-18 41 56 21 20 13 43 3 Jan-18 45 53 22 22 13 40 2 Mar-20 9 13 3 7 8 5 78 Kim Reynolds, the current Republican governor running for election Kim Reynolds, governor Kim Reynolds, Republican governor Kim Reynolds, Republican lieutenant governor Donald Trump Donald Trump, current president of the United States Donald Trump, president Cal Woods, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate and contractor How likely is it you will vote in the November 2020 general election for president, U.S. Senate and other offices—will you definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, or probably not vote? Mar-20 Feb-19 Jan-18 Definitely vote Probably vote Might or might not vote Probably not vote Refused/ Not sure 80 11 5 4 - 81 81 8 10 3 3 5 3 3 3 (Based on likely voters in the 2020 general election.) If the elections for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: The [DEMOCRATIC] candidate or the [REPUBLICAN] candidate? (If not sure, ask:) Which way are you leaning—toward the [Republican] candidate or the [Democratic] candidate? Mar-20 Sample size Margin of error Democratic candidate Lean Democratic candidate Republican candidate n=667 ±3.8% pts. 40 2 47 Lean Republican Other/ Would candidate not vote (VOL) 2 Not sure 2 7 (Based on likely voters in the 2020 general election.) If a vote for U.S. Senate were held today, would you definitely vote to reelect Joni Ernst, consider someone else, or definitely vote to elect someone else, or would you not vote? Mar-20 Sample size Margin of error n=667 ±3.8% pts. Definitely vote to reelect Ernst Consider someone else 41 Definitely vote to elect someone else 20 Would not vote 31 Not sure 3 6 (Based on likely voters in the 2020 general election.) If the general election were held today, and the candidates for president were [NAME ON LIST for the Democrats] and [Donald Trump for the Republicans], for whom would you vote? (Rotate list names. Rotate which name is asked first in question.) Joe Biden, former vice president Michael Bloomberg, former mayor* Mar-20 Mar-20 Sample size Margin of error n=667 n=667 ±3.8% pts. ±3.8% pts. __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 5 Name from List 41 34 Donald Trump 51 53 Not Sure 8 13 Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator# Mar-20 Mar-20 n=667 n=667 ±3.8% pts. ±3.8% pts. 41 40 53 52 6 8 *Michael Bloomberg dropped out of the race on Wednesday, March 4 #Elizabeth Warren dropped out of the race on Thursday, March 5 Here are some specific issues that have been debated [past wording: may be debated] in the Iowa Legislature this year. For each, please tell me if you favor or oppose the initiative. Mar-20 74 21 5 Mar-20 33 54 12 Mar-20 Feb-19 Jan-18 Feb-17 Feb-16 Feb-15 Feb-14 Feb-13 53 41 6 48 39 39 34 30 28 29 48 58 57 63 67 69 68 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 [Not directly comparable:] What about legalizing marijuana for recreational use, with restrictions similar to the use of alcohol, such as prohibiting driving while under the influence and setting a minimum? Do you favor or oppose legalizing marijuana for recreational use? Feb-10 28 70 2 Expand access to the medical marijuana program by covering more diseases and conditions Mar-20 81 13 5 Feb-19 78 18 4 Mar-20 63 30 8 Feb-19 64 29 7 Expand Iowa’s Smoke-Free Air law so that vaping would be banned in public places the same way cigarette smoking is Amend the Iowa Constitution to say it does not recognize a right to abortion or to require public funding of abortion Legalize the use of marijuana for recreational purposes in Iowa [Not directly comparable:] Expand access to the medical marijuana program by covering more diseases and conditions and adding more dispensaries around the state beyond the current five locations Amend the Iowa Constitution to say [Feb-19: to clarify] that convicted felons are automatically eligible again to vote once they have completed their sentences Which of the following approaches to felon voting rights do you prefer: (Read list. Do not rotate.) Automatically restore felons’ voting rights when they leave prison May-20 Restore felons’ voting rights only after they have served their time and also paid all restitution owed to their victims 16 45 Allow the governor to continue to decide on a case-by-case basis Not sure 36 3 Do you think all convicted criminals should have an opportunity for automatic restoration of their voting rights, or should those convicted of the most serious crimes, such as murder or sexual offenses, get their rights restored only if the governor approves? Asked only of those who prefer some type of automatic felon voting rights restoration in previous question. All should be automatic Those convicted of the most serious crimes should get their rights restored only if the governor approves Not sure Based on only those who were asked; n=481, MoE: ±4.5% pts. May-20 29 63 __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 6 8 Do you think all convicted criminals should have an opportunity for automatic restoration of their voting rights, or should those convicted of the most serious crimes, such as murder or sexual offenses, get their rights restored only if the governor approves? Asked only of those who prefer some type of automatic felon voting rights restoration in previous question. All should be automatic Those convicted of the most serious crimes should get their rights restored only if the governor approves Not sure 38 5 [From Q.10a: Allow governor to continue to decide on a case-by-case basis for all felons] [From Q.10a: Not sure] Based on all; n=800: MoE: ±3.5% pts. 17 May-20 36 3 Last year, the Iowa Legislature legalized gambling on sporting events. Do you approve or disapprove of this law? Approve May-20 Disapprove 59 Not sure 30 11 The Iowa caucuses earlier this month are the nation’s first test of presidential candidates. Iowa goes first in part because it is a caucus, not a primary. Do you think it would be better or worse for Iowans to cast votes for presidential contenders in a regular primary, rather than a caucus, even if it means Iowa would no longer be first? Mar-20 Feb-17 Better Worse Not sure 47 30 23 39 43 18 Now that the Iowa caucuses are over, is it best for the country for Iowa to be the first test for presidential candidates, or would it be best for the country if some other state or states go first? Best if Iowa goes first Mar-20 Feb-08 Best if some other state or states go first Not sure 52 23 25 66 13 21 State and national Democratic party leaders have acknowledged they made mistakes in handling the Iowa caucuses in 2020. How confident are you that the state and national parties could make the 2024 caucuses run smoothly if Iowa retains its place as the first contest—very confident, fairly confident, just somewhat confident, or not at all confident? Very/fairly confident Mar-20 49 Just somewhat/ not at all confident 47 Very confident 22 Fairly confident 27 __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 7 Just somewhat confident 31 Not at all confident 16 Not sure 4 Which of the following comes closest to your opinion on abortion: (Read list.) Abortion should be legal in all cases Mar-20 Sep-18 Sep-08 Legal in most cases Illegal in most cases, or Illegal in all cases Not sure 19 29 29 16 7 15 16 39 32 28 30 11 16 7 6 For each of the following, please tell me if you have already done it, seriously considered, or have not considered taking action as a response to what is happening with the coronavirus: (Rotate list.). Changed travel plans Washed your hands more frequently Avoided shaking hands with others Avoided crowds Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Already Done Seriously Considered Have not Considered Not Sure 8 61 21 20 10 10 13 13 76 25 63 63 6 4 3 4 ABOUT THE POLL The Iowa Poll, conducted March 2-5, 2020, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 800 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cellphone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data. Questions based on the sample of 800 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, and questions based on the sample of 667 likely voters in the 2020 general election have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 or 3.8 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited. __________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 8