MEMORANDUM FOR AMBASSADOR SUSAN E. RICE THROUGH: AMY E. POPE FROM: CHRISTOPHER M. KIRCHHOFF, Ph.D. SUBJECT: NSC LESSONS LEARNED STUDY ON EBOLA DATE: JULY 11, 2016 The Ebola epidemic in West Africa—one of the swiftest outbreaks of infectious disease since the 1918 Spanish Flu—claimed the lives of 11,000 and sickened more than 28,000. Yet it could have been exponentially worse. Models suggested 1.4 million stood to be infected and that the disease could have become endemic in West Africa, turning swaths of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea into a perennial hotzone. In this scenario Ebola would undoubtedly have spread to many more countries around the world, further threatened the U.S. homeland, and potentially contracted the global economy. The U.S.-led international response prevented that from happening. Americans should be proud of the role our nation played at a moment of global peril. It is sobering to note the odds are increasing that the United States will be called upon again in the not too distant future to respond to another health crisis that threatens global security. Population growth, urbanization, deforestation, the expansion of agriculture, the bunching of species together in island ecosystems, global commerce flows, and an unsurpassed level of intercontinental air travel are creating the very conditions for the next dangerous pathogen to emerge. A strong scientific consensus exists that we will see more zoonotic pandemics and infectious disease outbreaks going forward, as the present outbreak of Zika virus vividly illustrates. In recognition of this threat, President Obama called in his February 11, 2015 speech for us all to study the lessons-learned from the U.S. response to the Ebola outbreak, with a view to being better prepared to prevent and respond to the aftermath of future pandemic diseases. The conclusions of this study—the product of a single researcher—are not definitive or exhaustive. Rather, they are meant to bring into relief key elements of what the NSC staff and Federal departments and agencies have learned and to spell out outstanding issues that require further action. The report in this way is meant to inform deliberations about what specific steps the Administration can take by itself and with the international community to enhance pandemic preparedness, advance the Global Health Security Agenda, and further prepare for the potential that terrorists could acquire and use a biological weapon. The report’s 21 findings and recommendations feed directly into ongoing work being led by Deputy Homeland Security Advisor Amy Pope to learn not only from Ebola but also from other global health crisis that occurred during the Administration, including Middle Eastern Reparatory Syndrome (MERS) and the Zika virus outbreak. Methodologically, this study draws its findings from the work of 26 lessons learned teams and one official history from eight departments, agencies, and offices across the Federal government (see Appendix B for a full listing). While most agency lessons learned efforts were compiled by small teams, the United States Agency for International Development has eight separate lessons learned efforts underway, including a sophisticated assessment of the relative effectiveness of different programmatic interventions in the field. A similarly sophisticated Department of Defense effort interviewed over 300 people involved in Operation United Assistance, which deployed 2,800 troops to West Africa at the height of the epidemic. The teams discussed their findings with one another at NSC staff convened “lessons learned summits” in February, April, and May 2015. Collectively, these efforts have created a detailed portrait of the U.S. response, bringing into relief its significant successes and notable failings. This document highlights those among them that are most centrally related to capabilities within government that must be strengthened for the U.S. to successfully contain a future outbreak of greater magnitude. Its narrative of policy decisions and response actions is divided into three sections: the Early Response (March-July 2014); the Crisis Phase (August-December, 2014); and the Drive Towards Zero (January to June, 2015). It concludes with findings and recommendations, a list of reforms being contemplated by departments and agencies, a timeline of the response, and a list of the federal lessons learned efforts. To ensure this account faithfully captures the historical narrative, it was reviewed by members of the White House Ebola Task Force, former NSC Ebola Coordinator Ron Klain, CDC Director Tom Frieden, USAID/OFDA Director Jeremy Konyndyk, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Anne Witkowsky, Joint Staff Ebola Coordinator Major General Steven Shepro, Deputy Secretary of State Heather Higginbottom, NIH/NIAID Director Anthony Fauci, HHS Counselor Leslie Dach, HHS Assistant Secretary Nicole Lurie, DHS Chief Medical Officer Kathryn Brinsfield, former Deputy Homeland Security Advisor Rand Beers, and former NSC legal advisor James Petrila. 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Ebola at first spread unnoticed. Clusters of deaths that began in Guinea in late 2013 were not recognized as Ebola for several months because the disease had never been seen so far West in Africa and because the health system in Guinea was not capable of conducting the biosurveillance necessary to detect and contain the outbreak of novel pathogens. Once the outbreak of Ebola was confirmed by blood testing on March 23, 2014, international responders from the World Health Organization and Centers for Disease Control mobilized immediately. The widespread presumption among international and U.S. officials was that the outbreak would be quickly contained as had prior outbreaks over the past 38 years. The number of cases ebbed in May, 2014, but a sudden uptick of geographically distributed cases in June, 2014 made it clear that early control measures, which at first appeared to work, had in fact failed spectacularly. In retrospect, all the ingredients for the acceleration of transmission were present: colonial borders that artificially separate a tri-state region of hyper-mobile individuals; communities where a decade of civil conflict eroded trust of central authorities; the lack of biosurveillance, laboratory capability and field epidemiologists; underdeveloped healthcare systems; unfamiliarity with Ebola; limited medical literacy and a widespread reliance on traditional healers; deeply rooted funerary practices that create the very conditions to spread Ebola across entire communities; and extreme poverty. The failure to grasp what would make this outbreak so deadly was widely lamented by those who were in the field in the initial months. “It's much worse because we failed early,” one epidemiologist told White House officials. Built into the U.S. government approach to the containment of infectious diseases abroad was the assumption of a level of capability and competence in the WHO that turned out not to exist. By August, 2014 it was clear the WHO had lost control of the epidemic and that the U.S. must rush resources into West Africa to avoid a global catastrophe. The U.S. government was not well postured to mount the response that became necessary. It had no standing doctrine for how to combine the various deployable capabilities for fighting biological threats resident in HHS, CDC, USAID, and DoD. There was little comprehension at the White House or among agencies officials of what those capabilities actually were. At a moment when the epidemic was doubling in size every three weeks, it took time for officials to figure out how the U.S. should respond. What became the nation’s civil-military doctrine for how to fight Ebola came together quickly after the President directed that Ebola be considered a tier one national security emergency and ordered the deployment of 2,800 military personnel to West Africa as part of Operation United Assistance. The eventual integration of personnel from CDC and USAID under an improvised chain of command, with DoD working in support of thousands of civilian health workers, is one of the response’s most significant doctrinal innovations. The U.S. and international mobilization had immediate if unexpected effects. Transmission rates in Liberia fell far faster than predicted, with community behavior and social mobilization emerging as more potent factors in stopping Ebola than the build out of isolation and treatment facilities at the core of the initial strategy. The heroic actions of U.S., international, and West African responders effectively contained the epidemic in all three affected countries by January, 2015, with transmission slowly trailing off to zero by the end of 2015. 3 Domestically, the federal government’s establishment of a nationwide Ebola treatment and testing system, standing up a system of passenger funneling and screening at U.S. ports-of-entry, and establishment of an active monitoring program effectively protected the public from being exposed to Ebola. Nevertheless, Ebola cases in Dallas and New York showed how challenging a domestic health incident can be to manage. Federal, state, and local authorities in Dallas struggled to develop a working relationship that leveraged the expertise and authorities of each effectively. The lack of an effective system of whole of government incident command structure in response to a one-city, one hospital outbreak that nonetheless generated a tremendous amount of media coverage contributed to oversights in personal protective equipment use, disinfection, the collection, transport, and disposal of hazardous waste, the provision of social services for those placed under quarantine, and post-event monitoring and travel restrictions for potentially exposed health workers. The New York response was better managed, but the experience of Ebola cases presenting in the U.S. revealed the need for a smoother sliding scale of escalation of government response, from local authorities acting on their own to local authorities acting with some federal assistance, to a declaration of a Public Health Emergency and the full activation by DHS of the National Response Framework. Seen in retrospect, the Ebola outbreak amounts to a real life test of our ability to detect and contain an infectious disease that threatens global security. The response in West Africa and at home exposed weaknesses in preparedness and capability at the international level and in the U.S. government. Because the way the world is developing makes epidemics more likely to occur and spread rapidly in the future, epidemics must be considered one of the most pressing threats to global security While reform at the WHO and in other multilateral institutions is vital, the United States cannot wait until deployable international capability comes online. The United States and willing partner nations should maintain an interim global response capability as a bridge to whatever investments are ultimately made at the international level. Merely maintaining the current scale of response activities as a standing capability is likely not sufficient. Capacity during the Ebola response was stretched so thin that at certain points in 2014 and 2015 USAID and CDC’s standing and reserve capacity were maxed out. Had another disaster or disease outbreak occurred, there would have been no one left to deploy. Moreover, future epidemics, especially those that are airborne and transmissible before symptoms appear, are plausibly far more dangerous than Ebola, which is hard to catch, easy to test for, and occurred in a region of the world with minimal air connectivity. To organize U.S. deployable capability, the NSC should create a roster of standing capabilities in departments and agencies and consider creating an international equivalent of the National Response Framework that imagines ways in which needed capabilities from different parts of the federal government might be rapidly integrated in the next response, however it takes shape. . The NSC should also be prepared to reinstate the Ebola Coordinator role. A single person accountable to the President, and working within the NSC structure, is a model that works in extremis cases. Likewise, the level of integration USAID, CDC, and DoD have now reached should be perpetuated by mechanisms that facilitate joint planning, preparedness, and exercise programs. Relatedly, the new concentration of foundations that work in the health and epidemic space, who in aggregate contributed more resources to the Ebola response than many European 4 partners and the WHO, means the U.S. government needs to think about and maintain relations with the foundation world as it does its major allies. Summary of Findings and Recommendations • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • The very dynamics of globalization and population growth will lead to more pandemics, which must appropriately be considered among the most serious threats to our homeland and to international security. The Ebola epidemic showcased substantial gaps of global preparedness and capacity in infectious disease response. When the U.S. mobilized after the WHO failed to contain the epidemic, gaps in preparedness and capacity surfaced in every major agency tasked with health and security in the U.S. government. Merely maintaining the current scale of response activities as a standing capability is likely insufficient. As a first step to organize U.S. deployable capability, the NSC should create a roster of standing capabilities in departments and agencies and consider creating an international equivalent of the National Response Framework that imagines ways in which needed capabilities from different places might be more cohesively integrated in the next response, however it takes shape. A key part of that framework will be building upon the “civil-military” doctrine for epidemic response developed for Ebola, but without DoD’s “redlines” and with a view towards different scenarios. A single person accountable to the President for response efforts, working within the NSC framework, is a model that works in extremis cases. Funding mechanisms and triggers for mobilization short of a Stafford Act declaration need to be established. Vaccine and therapeutic liability, medevac capability, and hazardous waste disposal are issues that were raised but not solved by the Ebola response. Because the military, humanitarian, and health first responders do not meet up frequently, exercising, table-tops, training, liaison officers, regular detailing of personnel, and senior management exchanges are needed, both within governments and at the international level. Health and non-health agencies need a common language for situational awareness, a defined set of triggers for when to mobilize, the ability to deploy interagency assessment teams to monitor events long before they become crises, and a single system of situational reports. Greater study of population behavior change and social mobilization is needed. The management of public perception and community behavior, both at home and abroad, together with anthropological expertise, is a fundamental part of any response. New mechanisms are needed to harness better the potential contributions of the private sector, foundations, and the digital humanitarian community. Technology is a key part of enhancing effectiveness in the response, but epidemics most often move too fast to try out good ideas in the field. Management of the risk of disease spread by international travelers is essential. Multi-national, cross-jurisdictional data systems and indicators of how pathogens are spreading is one of the best ways to improve pandemic responses. Global humanitarian response capabilities are stretched to their limits and need additional capacity to handle the “new norm” of multiple crises occurring simultaneously. 5 • Stopping an outbreak at the source before it becomes an epidemic is crucial, reinforcing the need to accomplish the goals of the Global Health Security Agenda. 6 THE EARLY RESPONSE (March – July, 2014) On March 24, 2014, as part of routine briefing, National Security Council (NSC) staff informed National Security Advisor Susan Rice of the first known outbreak in Guinea of Ebola, a Tier 1 select agent “with significant potential for mass casualties.” The President was informed shortly thereafter. By the time Institute Pasteur had performed confirmatory testing of a blood sample sent by Medicine Sans Frontier (MSF) on March 21, 2014, the hemorrhagic fever had sickened 80 and killed 59—most of whom were misdiagnosed as having malaria. While suspected cases in Sierra Leone and Liberia were under investigation and there was suspicion by some that the deadly Ebola Zaire strain had spread more widely in Guinea, the assessment of NSC staff at that earliest moment reflected the view of CDC and the wider epidemiological community that Ebola would be quickly contained, as had other outbreaks over the past 38 years. The NSC update noted “we expect additional cases to be identified in the coming weeks and potentially in neighboring regions,” but concluded “a response is underway and should able to control the outbreak.” Statements by the World Health Organization (WHO) reflected this same conventional wisdom. “There has never been an Ebola outbreak larger than a couple hundred cases,” its spokesperson said. Epidemiological tracing suggests this extraordinary chapter in epidemic disease was set in motion four months earlier when a two-year old boy named Emile died on December 6, 2013 in the Guinean village of Meliandou. He fell sick after playing under bats roosting in a nearby tree, and passed on the disease to his mother, three-year old sister, grandmother, and the village healer who cared for them. Two mourners who attended the grandmother’s funeral carried the virus to their villages, from which it eventually spread to Guinea’s capital, Conakry. Once the outbreak of Ebola was confirmed, WHO flowed personnel into Guinea from its Africa regional office, country offices around Africa, and headquarters in Geneva. Internal protocols placed the WHO’s Africa regional office—widely known as its weakest—in charge of the response. CDC also deployed a team of five epidemiologists and public health specialists, including one of its top experts on Ebola, to assist the Guinean Ministry of Health. The team was onsite six days after the outbreak was confirmed. The mobilization was in many ways routine, except for the novel location. Ebola had only before appeared in African nations further east, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Sudan, and Gabon. The failure of the Guinean health care system and international health community to recognize Ebola for over three months is what the Defense Department lessons learned team characterized as “normalcy bias”— the tendency to believe that since a novel crisis did not occur in the past, it will not occur in the future. The presumption that the WHO would and should direct the response, as it set out to do quite publically, was widely shared by U.S. officials. Equally pervasive was the belief that this outbreak would follow the trajectory of prior ones and be successfully contained once sufficient control measures were established in affected communities. A strong consensus existed among infectious disease experts that patient isolation, contact tracing, and safe burial, when implemented correctly, stopped chains of transmission. The challenge in this case would be working in communities where medical personnel and community leaders were not familiar with 7 Ebola since it had never occurred there before, and in areas in which high levels of distrust existed towards authorities. Throughout April, 2014 a small number of officials independently monitored events from the Office of the Secretary of the Department of Health & Human Services (HHS), CDC, the National Institutes of Health, the National Biosurveillance integration Center (NBIC) at the Department of Homeland Security, DoD’s National Center for Medical Intelligence, and the regional office within USAID’s Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) that monitors Africa. During this time NSC staff sent periodic updates to National Security Advisor Rice. On the whole, most communication in the White House about the outbreak was informational in nature, updating leadership about the status of the outbreak and U.S. personnel deployed to West Africa. The posture reflected the known epidemiological status of the outbreak, which while widespread in isolated clusters was not yet alarming in scale. Though some inside and outside government raised concerns about what remained unknown about the epidemic and whether significant numbers of cases had gone undetected, the view of CDC officials on the ground and WHO officials leading the response was that the outbreak was on its way to being contained. In early May, 2014 the epidemic seemed to have waned. Though a few cases remained in the forest region of Guinea, Liberia had not recorded a case in four weeks and Sierra Leone appeared to remain Ebola free. Reflecting confidence that the epidemic was effectively contained, on May 19, 2014 WHO Director General Margaret Chan mentioned Ebola only in passing in her address to the World Health Assembly in Geneva. WHO officials in West Africa communicated to CDC their confidence in being able to conclude control measures and that CDC teams were no longer needed in the region. To officials in Atlanta, there was a feeling that WHO wanted to demonstrate its independence and that CDC was being “pushed out.” WHO assertion of control, one White House official noted, later extended to other U.N. Agencies, including the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, which WHO did not request to become part of the response when caseloads rose to crisis levels. At this very moment chains of transmission escaped notice as Ebola spread widely across the porous borders joining Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. WHO officials would later write in the New England Journal of Medicine that “modest further intervention efforts at that point could have achieved control.” Exactly how its spread was missed remains a point of contention among epidemiologists to this day. The significance of Ebola presenting for the first time in an urban context, and in a tri-state region that was a nexus of commerce and transport, were underappreciated. So too was the prospect that Ebola could have been circulating farther West than typically thought. Though a consensus has not yet formed in the medical literature, and the finding may well be incorrect, the retesting of archival blood samples for the presence of Ebola antibodies point to the possibility that Ebola outbreaks had previously occurred, but not been recognized, in Guinea and Sierra Leone. In other words, Ebola might have been circulating in West Africa animal reservoirs and in isolated human cases all along, a circumstance that, if known, would have helped health authorities identify the outbreak earlier. In retrospect, all the ingredients for the acceleration of transmission were present: colonial borders artificially separate a tri-state region of hyper-mobile individuals; communities where a decade of civil conflict eroded trust of central authorities; the lack of biosurveillance, laboratory 8 capability, and field epidemiologists; underdeveloped healthcare systems; unfamiliarity with Ebola; limited medical literacy and a widespread reliance on traditional healers; deeply rooted funerary practices that create the very conditions to spread Ebola across entire communities; and extreme poverty. By one count Liberia had 51 doctors to treat a population of four million. Its average per capita healthcare expenditure was under $50. Though Guinea had a modestly stronger public health capacity, the healthcare system in Sierra Leone was not significantly different. The failure to grasp what would make this outbreak so deadly was widely lamented by those who were in the field in the initial months. “It's much worse because we failed early,” one epidemiologist told White House officials. It would not be until early summer, when suspected and confirmed cases in West Africa suddenly trended upwards, that the policy conversation about Ebola moved more fully into an interagency process. On June 21, 2014, Medicines Sans Frontier (MSF)’s Director of Operations noted the spread of Ebola at more than 60 known locations meant the epidemic was “out of control” and that “we have reached our limits.” MSF’s call for international mobilization was widely repeated in press accounts and captured the attention of NSC staff. The White House held its first Interagency Policy Committee (IPC) meeting on Ebola on June 27, 2014, with the NSC Director for Humanitarian Affairs stepping into the role that would ordinarily have been filled by the NSC Director for Global Health, a position that was gapped from May to September, 2014. The uptick in cases that had by then been detected among a widening geographic distribution of clusters made it clear that early control measures, which at first appeared to work, had in fact failed spectacularly. In-kind support was already being provided to the WHO by different parts of USAID and DoD, but it was for the most part ad hoc and uncoordinated. The White House and State Department moved to figure out what was being provided and also address the concerns of U.S. Embassies in the region, who were frustrated by the lack of clarity about what the U.S. could or should be doing to augment the response and how they should protect their personnel from infection. Despite the uptick in cases, two prevailing assumptions about the leadership and scope of the response remained intact through the end of June, 2014. It was still assumed that WHO personnel on the ground—who continued to assert their leadership of the response—would spearhead the assessments of what was needed to contain the now significantly larger outbreak and that WHO would form the core command and control architecture to direct responders. It was also still thought that the epidemic could be contained without the possibility of catastrophic intensification. As a USAID official noted, there was not yet the recognition in the U.S. government of the mission that would come. Toward the end of June, 2014, NSC officials were beginning to recognize that the WHO was not playing the leadership and coordination role that was necessary, but the focus became improving rather than supplanting the WHO response by forcing greater centralization and pressuring WHO to dispatch additional personnel from Geneva. A WHO estimate in mid-July projected a need for $20 million dollars to continue containment though the end of 2014. The estimate was revised upward two weeks later as the magnitude of cases came into focus. Meanwhile, as June shifted to July, Ebola came barreling into Monrovia. One of the first infected patients to reach the Liberian capital sought care at Redemption hospital at a time when doctors there did not assume patients presenting with fever should be treated as potential Ebola 9 cases, given the many endemic diseases its symptoms overlap. The results were disastrous. Within two weeks, many of Redemption’s medical staff lay dead or dying. Healthcare delivery ceased as medical professionals fell victim to the disease. Parts of the hospital were sealed, and riots erupted outside over the refusal of doctors to return the highly infectious bodies of Ebola victims to their families. Other clinics and hospitals in Monrovia experienced similar infections among healthcare workers as more cases entered the healthcare system. In the span of four weeks, Monrovia’s clinics and hospitals almost completely collapsed under the sudden burden of caring for highly infectious patients. The increased infections and deaths among healthcare workers in Liberia and Sierra Leone and the forced closure of other key hospital facilities, such as Kenema, in Sierra Leone, crossed thresholds that alarmed public health experts worldwide. In July, 2014 the tempo of decision-making accelerated at the White House, CDC, HHS, and USAID. The WHO called for emergency meetings in Accra, Ghana, July 2-3, which was seen by NSC staff as something of a “last chance” for the WHO to organize itself sufficiently and rigorously identify needs. The NSC staff began frequent Ebola strategy meetings at the sub- IPC level, with HHS agreeing to coordinate the U.S. response to requests from the emergency WHO meeting in Accra as they had for WHO’s first appeal in March. On July 9, 2014 CDC activated its Emergency Operations Center for Ebola on the floor of the CDC operations center in Atlanta, at level 3, its lowest level of mobilization, and at the request of the NSC began to develop a proposal for how overall U.S. government coordination could occur. CDC committed to sending dozens of additional disease control specialists to West Africa by the end of July. On July 17, the tally of reported cases from the region exceeded 1,000. Five days later, the NSC staff led an IPC to finalize a framework for the division of labor among Federal agencies and departments involved in the response. As the number of the sick rose, there was a struggle to erect Ebola Treatment Units (ETUs) that could contain infectious patients and adequately protect those who treat them. At ELWA hospital, near the stadium in Monrovia, the chapel was outfitted as a makeshift ETU with a capacity of eight beds. The medical director there recalled looking up on the Internet procedures for donning and doffing personal protective equipment in what amounted to a crash course in how to safely treat Ebola patients. It was in this facility in late July that American healthcare workers Kent Brantly and Nancy Writebol became infected. Its subsequent collapse after the healthcare worker infections was a seminal event for USAID’s Office of Foreign Disaster Assistane (OFDA), who was then involved in discussions to fund the ETU’s sponsor, Samaritan’s Purse. The OFDA Director later said this was when he knew they had to “go in big,” as the absence of treatment beds effectively left Monrovia undefended from the outbreak. The first virus exportation event beyond Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea occurred on July 20, 2014 when an infected man flew from Monrovia to Lagos, Nigeria, while symptomatic, and was later confirmed to have Ebola, leading to a frantic effort to contain a potential cluster in Africa’s largest mega-city. In perhaps the most significant unsung success of the response, CDC rushed in field epidemiologists, mobilized Nigerian epidemiologists trained by CDC, worked with the Nigerian government to establish effective incident command, and pivoted leadership and staff from the CDC Nigerian Polio Eradiation Program. Vice President Biden also pressured Nigerian President Jonathan Goodluck to accelerate his government’s response on the margins of the Africa Leaders summit. In fourteen days, an Ebola Treatment Unit was constructed, 2,300 health care staff were trained, and health care workers traced 800 contacts, performed 19,000 home 10 visits of these contacts, and screened 150,000 travelers at airports. The mobilization stopped transmission after 19 secondary cases in three generations of spread across two cities. Had the index patient not presented in a well-run private hospital in the capital city (one of the few facilities open as government healthcare worker were on strike and most state run hospitals were closed), it is entirely possible a large-scale response would have been required in Nigeria as well—a potentially catastrophic development given that security concerns in the north would have substantially complicated any international response. The virus later made its way to Mali and Senegal, and later Spain, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Italy, but was contained with only minimal spread after rapid mitigation efforts by the U.S., affected governments, and international health community. Meanwhile, aid organizations and multinational businesses in the mining, coca, and tapioca industries began evacuating non-essential personnel and shutting down operations, leading to a series of consultations between the WHO, CDC, and the governments of India and the Philippines, among others, about how to ensure returning migrant workers did not bring home the virus along with them. On July 22, 2014 NSC staff received a harrowing field report, passed on by CDC leadership, from a CDC official traveling in Kenema, the third largest city in Sierra Leone. The official described chaos in local hospitals and clinics. At Kenema Government Hospital, there were “bodies strewn on the side of the entrance to one of the three wards,” nearly half the nurses from the Ebola response unit were themselves sick with Ebola, and hospital workers were struggling to care for a number of symptomatic orphaned children dropped off by ambulance drivers. The official recommended the establishment of an emergency operations center, a call to the international community for clinical workers and lab personnel, a humanitarian relief effort focused on orphans, and the placement of quality control officers to focus on infection control and to determine the cause of transmission among the staff and ambulance drivers, none of whose cases had been investigated to date. The official also cited dangerous working conditions and insufficient decontamination protocols in the few onsite labs capable of testing Ebola samples, which he noted would require substantial outside help to safely process the number that now needed to be tested. The field report, which was the first granular account of the crisis shared with the NSC, drove home to NSC staff and leadership the gravity of the situation and the potential steps needed to turn it around. On July 23, 2014 the American doctor Kent Brantly, who was working in ELWA’s makeshift ETU in Monrovia, was confirmed to be Ebola positive. With no Ebola patient having been transported by air, State Department officials were faced with the sudden decision of whether he could be safely evacuated to a hospital in the United States to receive a higher level of care. When he got the call, the State Department official responsible for aeromedical evacuations knew he had an unprecedented situation on his hands. Curious about who the doctor requesting evacuation was, the official found a picture on the Internet of Brantly standing with his family. He later told colleagues that he knew we had to help. The evacuation was quickly approved and coordinated, but in a surprise to officials at the White House, there was no airplane in the U.S. government inventory able to safely transport a patient with a hemorrhagic fever. The private aeromedical evacuation company Phoenix Air Group was quickly contacted and used a specialized Gulfstream jet, kept on contract by the CDC, for the transport. Brantly arrived in Atlanta for treatment at Emory University Hospital on August 2, 2014. A nurse practitioner 11 working at the same facility, Nancy Writebol, fell ill several days later, and was evacuated by Phoenix Air to Emory as well. Shortly thereafter, State’s Office of Medical Services signed a new contract for use of the only aircraft then capable of safely evacuating symptomatic Ebola patients. In one of State’s most important contributions to the response, it subsequently created a framework for donors and other nations to use this capability on a reimbursable basis. The capability became a key policy tool for recruitment of health care workers into the response. Until a DoD aeromedical evacuation capability that used pods placed in C-130 or C-17 aircraft became operational in early 2015, and a similar pod capability funded by the Paul G. Allen Foundation become operational in mid-2015, the contract with the Phoenix Air Group was the only means the United States had to transport those infected with Ebola. Many medical lessons resulted from treating Ebola patients in advanced facilities where adequate fluid replacement and real-time monitoring of blood chemistry were possible. Physicians learned that Ebola caused 5-7 liters of fluid loss, even sometimes up to 12, in 24 hours, leading to profound electrolyte imbalances severe enough to cause cardiac rhythm abnormalities. Maintaining adequate fluid and electrolyte replacement was critical for survival. Beyond challenges in caring for the patient in the hospital, there were associated challenges for ground transport and—because of the copious fluid loss—hospital waste management. NSC staff requested and received a briefing from the treating physicians and worked to disseminate this clinical knowledge in medical channels. CRISIS (August-December, 2014) As July turned to August, Liberia was descending into chaos. Caseloads were rising rapidly in Sierra Leone and Guinea. The WHO, along with the Presidents of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, announced a response plan with funding needs of $71 million. As the scope of the crisis became clearer, the President directed NSC Leadership to begin making plans for the U.S. to intervene on a large scale, and to do so in a way that drew other nations into the response. Homeland Security Advisor Lisa Monaco recalls the President giving clear direction for the U.S. to organize and lead an international response, with particular focus on enhancing the nascent British response in Sierra Leone and French response in Guinea. It was the beginning of a remarkable chapter of Presidential leadership on Ebola that would continue through the entire arc of the response. With the President’s direction clear, NSC officials, under Monaco and Ambassador Rice’s leadership, worked closely with CDC, USAID, and DoD to escalate the U.S. response. At a July 31, 2014 Deputies Committee meeting on Ebola, agencies were asked—at the request of the President—to be forward leaning in their provision of leadership and assistance in the response. Convinced that Department and Agency commitments were still not appropriately scaled, and frustrated by working-level conversations that hit dead ends when trying to identify capabilities, Lisa Monaco used the DC to ask DoD and others what operational capabilities they had to deploy. 12 NSC staff started to understand CDC’s limited capacity to call forth and coordinate a multiagency response. To help coordinate the on-the-ground response and organize a more robust response, NSC staff asked USAID to deploy a Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) to the region, a trained group of technical experts specializing in assessing needs and coordinating relief efforts. On August 1, 2014 USAID activated the Washington, D.C.-based Response Management Team, a first step in mobilizing for the response. Deploying a DART into a public health emergency was not an immediately evident course of action. No DART had ever been stood up to respond to an emergency that began as a disease outbreak. The proposition was not initially welcomed by CDC, which already had personnel on the ground with separate funding and chain of command. But NSC staff brokered the agreement between CDC and USAID at an IPC level meeting that a DART should be deployed, with a CDC official designated as the DART deputy with overall leadership for public health and medical issues. The idea, in the words of a senior CDC official, was to marry “CDC’s brains with USAID’s brawn.” CDC would lead the strategy, but as in disaster responses, USAID would bring the systems and personnel to assess and validate needs, establish logistics and communications systems, and coordinate requests to other parts of the U.S. government, including the Department of Defense. On August 3, 2014, the NSC Deputies Committee ratified the decision to deploy the DART with interagency participation. U.S. Ambassador Deborah Malac formally initiated the request for a DART team, marking the beginning of the emergency phase of the U.S. response. The main body of the DART deployed to Liberia on August 4th, with its leader arriving on August 7th. On August 5, 2014, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey asked his senior civilian Special Assistant to assess the status of DoD preparedness to aid in the response and evaluate whether protocols were sufficiently developed to allow active duty, reserve, and national guard forces to work safely and effectively in support of public health first responders if called to do so by the President. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel established the DoD Ebola Task Force that same day. Liberian President Sirleaf declared a national emergency on August 6th. On August 8th the WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, its highest level of alert. The NSC Deputies Committee met again on August 11th, the same day the DART team expanded its deployment into Sierra Leone. In Liberia, it was a strange time of both fear and unexpected normality. Embassy and USAID personnel who lived the full course of the epidemic noted that even at its height, many of Liberia’s citizens went on with their daily lives. Reports of bodies in the street are accurate but nevertheless overstate disruption to life in the capital, which was less than might be expected. The density of cases, though large in aggregate, was ultimately a fraction of the population — peaking in September at 1 per 400 in Liberia and 1 per 3,000 in Guinea. Embassy staff noted the absence of crowds and frequency of ambulances, such that even as hospitals and clinics collapsed one after the other, life went on with a surprising degree of normality. 13 In mid-August, President Sirleaf deployed the Liberian Armed Forces to quarantine the West Point neighborhood, which suffered a large cluster of cases. Violent disturbances broke out. Communities began to protest the placement of ETUs within their neighborhoods and became alarmed by the seeming pattern of sick relatives going in for treatment only never to be seen again. Disturbances grew so widespread that concern grew among NSC staff that the breakdown of governance in Liberia was not out of the realm of possibility. Greater action was seen as needed to stop the spread of the disease because of the civil disorder it was causing. CDC staff in Monrovia warned of the impending spread of the disease across West Africa if the response was not escalated. Officials at USAID's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance who put together the composition of the responders deploying to West Africa noted the nuclear disaster at Fukushima served as the initial template for mobilizing the DART. They presumed the WHO would play a similar coordination role that the International Atomic Energy Agency did in Japan and that the DART team would essentially be working in support of WHO rather than managing the entire response itself. The need for the DART to take a leadership role in developing an overarching plan for the entire response only became apparent several weeks after it deployed. In retrospect, USAID officials are of the view that the DART should have rolled out one month earlier, which would have better positioned it for the deluge of cases to come and the leadership role it was thrust into. It was not that the threshold for deploying a DART turned out to be too high. Rather it was that the DART was not at first seen as an obvious vehicle to manage the public health emergency response given that WHO and CDC personnel were already on the ground. OFDA, too, was overstretched, having already deployed in 2014 large DARTs to Syria, Iraq, and South Sudan. Deploying a DART only became a logical course of action when there was consensus that the response had evolved from a public health emergency to a broader humanitarian disaster. Officials in Washington came to favor the DART’s deployment when they realized there was no other operational platform that could orchestrate the push/pull processes required to manage such a response and that a platform was needed for interagency coordination. They also judged that the DART’s presence on the ground would encourage NGOs who work with USAID to flow personnel into West Africa—a critical need. Devising how DART staff would work with CDC teams in the region was one of the early postdeployment challenges. The eventual integration of personnel from CDC and USAID under an improvised chain of command, with the CDC team lead serving in effect as the DART’s deputy officer, is one of the response’s significant organizational innovations. Yet in the early days each agency had a mutual incomprehension of the other’s capabilities and essentially worked as parallel entities rather than an integrated team. CDC personnel initially resisted being brought under the DART structure, having typically operated independently when deployed abroad. Once they assented, the nature of that integration would get re-litigated every 29 days as CDC team leads switched out. Early leadership rotations took distinct steps backward. “We did not have unity of command,” the head of the OFDA said of this phase. Gradually USAID and CDC learned to work better together as they each figured out their strengths and how to combine them. OFDA personnel noted that although they were able to “muddle through” with CDC in the response’s early months, a more stressing outbreak scenario would not have allowed for this kind of on-the-job learning and negotiation. 14 The difficulty that agencies and departments who focus on health had in working with those that do not have a health mission would become a recurring theme in the domestic and international response. Integrating the public health expertise of the CDC and other HHS components with the response capabilities of USAID, DHS, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), a component of DHS, was a central challenge. While the National Response Framework created in the aftermath of hurricane Katrina specifies agency relationships and mobilization plans for a domestic response in great detail, through HSPD-5, that response was never formally activated. There is no corresponding framework for U.S. mobilization in an international response. USAID is well practiced at responding in conjunction with the U.S. military to hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural disasters, but the public health challenges presented by Ebola were altogether different. Rather than being a point event that happens once, with disaster management essentially a linear exercise in assessing and managing consequences, epidemics are by their very nature non-linear. They grow, change shape and size, and can behave like a snowball rolling downhill. They also require specialized knowledge to manage that is not a normal part of a DART humanitarian response or DoD’s disaster response capabilities. In addition, USAID typically works with non-governmental organizations on the ground to provide assistance during a disaster response, but the paucity of partners in West Africa—to start with and due to evacuations and fear of Ebola after the outbreak intensified—created the double challenge of needing to actively recruit the very contract labor force that the DART is used to having at its disposal. Nor could this labor force be easily adapted for the epidemic. Before fall, 2014, MSF was the only organization in the world, NGO or otherwise, with any depth of experience in deploying to contain an Ebola outbreak—a stark reminder of the paucity of international resources to address nations who need help responding to an outbreak of infectious disease. CDC also found itself in new territory. Its personnel do not typically deliver medical services or health care, but rather work in partnership with Ministries of Health. Though CDC has a significant international presence, with over 2,000 officials and contractors performing $2 billion of work in 60 countries, it did not have large existing programs in the three affected countries and the relationships they bring. Nor was CDC institutionally postured to surge staff at the scale needed in the Ebola response. The challenge was thus to bridge USAID’s mentality of rendering “things” and services (i.e. supplies, food, personal protective equipment) with the HHS/CDC worldview of mobilizing experts. Both became necessary to address the crises, yet the expertise of the two agencies was only put into meaningful conversation in August, 2014. With the inadequacies of WHO’s fumbling leadership becoming more apparent as August, 2014 went on, the DART’s requirements assessment process became crucial to mobilizing U.S. government and international capabilities. A fundamental role of the DART is to assess what is needed – what “requirements” exist that need to be filled in order to mobilize an effective response. Yet the DART found itself saddled with a situation it had never encountered before, having not previously applied its assessment skills to a widespread epidemic. The tools it had, its loose relationship with CDC and with DoD’s staff of military planners, and the general 15 confusion with the scene playing out before it, were not an ideal mix. “We knew then we had to go in heavy. We didn’t know initially what tools to deploy,” the OFDA Director noted. The DART’s ethos worked against it at this point. On August 3, 2014, the DoD official designated by Secretary Hagel as the Department’s Ebola Coordinator recommended to the head of OFDA that a military logistician, medical logistician, and military planner deploy with the DART to assist in its development of requirements. USAID initially declined this offer by DoD, reflecting the institutional preference to minimize extraneous participants and deploy with the standard configuration honed by years of experience. OFDA did request a medical planner be integrated with the RMT team in Washington on August 6th and on August 14th integrated into the DART two military planners already deployed with Operation Onward Liberty, AFRICOM’s security assistance mission to the Armed Forces of Liberia. On September 12th additional planners from AFRICOM arrived at the DART. The missed opportunity to integrate planners in this crucial planning period was nevertheless the first of many missteps in USAID and DoD relationship. In a similar episode later in the response, the DART team initially refused to accept one of USAID’s own expert on IT and data systems, despite the obvious need to address information flow in the response. Part of the challenge was the processes OFDA has for augmenting DART teams. To prevent non-essential USAID personnel from using the DART as an expedient platform from which to engage in the response, OFDA typically prefers that other USAID officials travel in-country through the traditional TDY process, which requires approval by the U.S. Ambassador to the country. If a non-traditional member is to be added to the DART, position description and list of duties needs to be developed and approved by both OFDA and the U.S. Ambassador, who in this case was not yet persuaded that more work on data and connectivity was the best use of limited personnel slots the Embassy was able to support. USAID’s Ebola Coordinator soon secured the data expert as a member of the DART team, but this chain of events revealed a tendency toward adhering to standard practice that in effect limited the DART from taking advantage of all available resources. The after action review conducted by USAID’s Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance cited “incorporating technical resources from USG partners” as the primary challenge to USAID’s initial ability to respond. The view at DoD was harsher. In September, 2014 some on the Joint Staff characterized the DART’s requirements definition process as “broken,” leaving the DoD unsure of what it actually needed to provide to arrest the epidemic. The situation continued to deteriorate in Monrovia and the region as the DART deployed and got its footing in August, 2014. In Washington, leaders began to evaluate what a larger response might look like. With few NGOs willing to send medical personnel, creating an “enabling environment” that induced first responders to work in West Africa became a priority. Establishing a word-class treatment facility in the region was identified as one of the most important means of convincing health workers to join the response, who needed to know they would be cared for if they fell ill. NSC thus asked DoD officials whether the military had a field hospital that could be deployed to serve this purpose. After a back and forth over what capabilities DoD had in the inventory and who should be deployed along with them, the Deputies Committee agreed that DoD should deploy a medical 16 unit, which became the Monrovia Medical Unit (MMU), on August 26, 2014. This highly sophisticated combat hospital was designed as a world-class trauma center and had many capabilities beyond what was required for the situation, but was sent forward anyway because the military had no deployable facility optimized for infectious disease isolation and treatment. Over a series of teleconferences and meetings of clinical experts from within the government and academia, HHS led an interagency team that defined requirements for the facility’s reconfiguration for treating health care workers infected with Ebola. An interagency team of medical and infectious disease experts made recommendations for exact medical procedures that would be performed, as well as those that would not (e.g. cardiopulmonary resuscitation, mechanical ventilation, hemodialysis). One NSC physician later pointed out the decision at the time not to include the dialysis capability, now known to be essential in the care of Ebola patients, but then seen as posing too much risk to health care workers to administer safely, reflected how minimal the experience base was for treating Ebola in advanced clinical settings. Because the U.S. military argued it should not have to provide the clinical staff to treat patients, despite having the quickest capability to deploy them, Secretary Burwell volunteered the Public Health Service Corps (USPHS), a uniformed commission of experts, for this unprecedented mission. The USPHS Commissioned Corps ultimately deployed several hundred personnel in support of the MMU and the Ebola containment efforts across the three African countries, drawing staff away from exiting responsibilities within the federal government and tribal agencies. On September 2, 2014 the President of Medicines Sans Frontier (MSF), an organization historically averse to partnering with any military, appealed for United Nations member states to send civilian and military assets to assist in the response. The MSF President also personally urged the White House to intensify U.S. involvement. It was a notable commentary on the inaction of Western governments to confront the emerging crisis. The CDC Director and OFDA Director visited the region during the last week in August and echoed MSF’s call for greater involvement when they returned to the United States. “Unless the emergency actions outlined below are taken – and progress measured in hours rather than days or weeks – there could be tens of thousands of cases of Ebola within months,” the CDC Director’s September 2, 2014 trip report read. “The disease will likely become endemic throughout much of Africa, become established as an ongoing global threat for many years, and cause destabilizing economic, political, and social devastation in the West African region and beyond.” On September 3, 2014 the CDC Director visited the DoD official in charge of Ebola and also spoke with the President. His message was that the epidemic was taking a turn for the worse and extraordinary measures were necessary, including possibly the deployment of the U.S. military. On September 4, 2014, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Martin Dempsey forwarded Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel an update from the AFRICOM Commander identifying the need for a broad interagency effort to develop a comprehensive strategy to fight Ebola. Dempsey was worried about requests to deploy DoD assets piecemeal in the absence of a mature interagency or international plan. It was a complex time, with many in DoD—including the DoD Ebola 17 Coordinator—reluctant to deeply involve the military in the response given new demands associated with humanitarian and counter-ISIL operations in Iraq and Syria and the general view within most parts of DoD that health is a WHO or HHS responsibility. Despite increased focus on the possibility USAID and CDC might make a formal request for the military to become involved, little of the specific formal planning that Dempsey called for was underway at either the Pentagon, AFRICOM, State, USAID, CDC or elsewhere in the interagency. USAID and CDC had managed to build by the end of August a skeletal strategy, essentially a whitepaper and excel spreadsheet. The NSC-drafted US Government Strategy for Reducing Transmission of the Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa was released on September 4, 2014. But both documents were a long way from the kind of detailed operational plans that military planners align assets against. Without direction for DoD planners to conduct detailed planning before decisions were made for DoD to ramp up its role, and with top civilianvi and uniformed officials at DoD signaling their reluctance to involve staff in interagency planning for fear of being drawn into the response absent senior direction, an integrated plan was not produced. The military planners detailed to USAID and the DART were helpful at educating USAID about DoD’s capabilities, but did not themselves evolve into a core planning team anticipating the future needs of the responsesp. It would be incorrect to say the NSC and interagency were asleep at the switch at this crucial moment. The tempo of engagement was high. The NSC staff maintained a daily drumbeat of interagency meetings, conference calls, and communication with teams in the field. National Security Ambassador Susan Rice’s personal commitment kept Ebola front and center on the NSC agenda and led her to press hard for a more aggressive response, a commitment shared by USAID Administrator Raj Shah and the President himself. But the realization set in late that the epidemic had outrun the WHO. When mobilization became necessary, there was a “mutual incomprehension” of what capabilities among USAID, DoD and CDC could be mobilized. The key planners from USAID, DOD, CDC, and HHS had not been directed by their leadership to jointly brainstorm what capabilities could scale the response. As a result, the policy planning process at the end of August had not generated the creation of mature interagency options in the very period where it would have been ideal to have planners from agencies working closely together. The Department of Defense lessons learned team concluded that the military was simply not prepared or postured for the demands that fell upon them just a few days after Dempsey’s letter to the Secretary in early September, 2014. “DoD monitored the worsening situation but neither planned nor postured for the level of response support eventually required,” was its conclusion. The mathematics of Ebola had outrun the international response, with the epidemic at this point doubling in size every three weeks. The speed of the response now mattered tremendously, but the major organs of the U.S. government had essentially been caught flat-footed when the NSC Principals Committee began debating whether to recommend the deployment of military forces. It’s possible to read unfolding events during this period as failures of foresight and the product of capability gaps at several levels. The government on the whole lacked a global system to detect the emergence of biological threats, a capability the Global Health Security Agenda is trying to build in countries overseas. Nor was there a standing doctrine for how to combine the various 18 capabilities for fighting biological threats to global security resident in HHS/CDC, USAID, and DoD. There was in essence a “failure of imagination” in the years before 2014 to plan, build, and exercise deployable capability to contain an epidemic. The decision to deploy a DART was fundamentally an ad hoc response. It is therefore unsurprising that the most critical failure of the DART in the field was its inability to quickly integrate the specialized knowledge—and associated CDC personnel and military planners—needed to properly conduct the joint assessment of requirements that is its core function. A second place where more specialized capacity was needed was at AFRICOM, a Combatant Command created in part to marshal whole of government responses to hybrid security challenges. AFRICOM planners did not aggressively build the kind of worst case plans it was soon scrambling to complete. The DoD lessons learned team found that AFRICOM did not have a current pandemic influenza infectious disease response plan on the books, as they were required to—a not infrequent oversight, given the general mismatch between number of staff planners and plans they are in theory held responsible for updating. The addition of military planners to the RMT and DART provided some essential connectivity, but that connectivity did not trigger the larger planning effort that came to be needed. The third failure of foresight arguably occurred at the level of the NSC Staff, Deputies Committee, and in the planning staff of departments and agencies, whose efforts to elicit what operational capabilities could be mobilized from CDC, USAID, and DoD in early and midAugust was not followed by deeply integrated planningthat could have supported the NSC decision process. One member of the Ebola Task Force recalls the lack of a clear threshold for when the epidemic crossed into an international emergency that the U.S. had to help solve, rather than relying on the WHO to take the lead, as a key reasons why Deputies had not yet flipped into full crisis mobilization mode. Another noted that the explicit preference of top DoD officials to resist involvement until explicitly directed effectively curtailed military planners from deep engagement with their interagency counterparts before the formal decision to deploy the military. Diplomatic & Military Mobilization By early September, 2014 the mushrooming epidemic led decision-makers to explore many options for intervention. USAID Administrator Raj Shah placed a phone call to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dempsey at the beginning of the second week in September asking if the military could build and staff a 1,300 bed Ebola treatment facility in Monrovia, the size needed to contain infectious patients based on projected caseloads. It was a request that led to what became the nation’s theory of civil-military epidemic response even as the request itself would have a long tail of unintended effects on the resources the military and others deployed. The call crystalized for Dempsey earlier cautions he and other DoD officials had expressed over what the military could and should provide to the response and what it should at all costs endeavor to avoid. He formulated his judgment, later shared with the Principals Committee with the support of Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, in terms of “unique capabilities” and “redlines.” What the military could and should do is leverage its unique capabilities in support of USAID and other health responders, including logistics support, mobile laboratories, training health care workers, setting up an intermediate staging base, opening an air bridge, and providing 19 command and control capabilities through the establishment of a Joint Task Force. What the military should not do is provide patient care. The military, in Dempsey and Hagel’s view, did not have large numbers of medical providers trained to care for Ebola patients, and should not have to supplant civilians who are better positioned to serve this function. The uneasy way in which USAID, CDC, and DoD grappled with what to do and who should do what, in the eyes of the CDC Director, reflected a “critical mutual misunderstanding” of each other’s capabilities and mission requirements. The NSC Principals Committee met on September 10, 2014 to decide the contours of the U.S. response to the escalating crisis. At that meeting, National Security Susan Rice conveyed the President’s view that Ebola should be identified as a tier-one national security emergency, equivalent to Iraq or Syria, and set in motion a dramatic escalation of the response. The tier-one designation was pushed for by NSC staff who were concerned State and DoD were not yet treating the outbreak as seriously as they should be. Particularly persuasive in the meeting were estimates of future caseloads presented by CDC Director Tom Frieden and the Director for National Intelligence. NSC staff came to refer to Frieden’s chart as the “hockey stick” slide for its sharp upward curve estimating over a million cases by January absent further intervention. The modeling made clear that the mathematics of transmission created a tremendous penalty for delaying intervention, with case numbers at their peak roughly tripling for every month the response was not scaled up. Speed was of the essence. White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough and the President’s other senior advisors were seized with the need for action after hearing Frieden’s case. Others later noted Frieden’s presentation of the alarming models warped policy considerations by overly focusing attention on a perceived “bed gap” in treatment facilities. It was the beginning of a period of debate and uncertainty over what interventions would most effect the course of the epidemic. DoD, while acknowledging the seriousness of the situation, continued to insist that others provide patient care. Dempsey’s stance against having uniformed personnel treat patients, given the high cost of moving to Africa units that have current responsibilities abroad or in the homeland, was reluctantly agreed upon by other Principals. This decision established a de facto division of labor between military and civilian responders, with civilians treating patients and the military providing logistical support to help them do so. Although National Security Advisor Rice was very clear that the U.S. response should cover all three affected countries, the U.S. diplomatic strategy began to coalesce around an international division of labor reflecting historic colonial ties. The U.S. asked the French government to provide military and civilian responders in Guinea and asked the British government to increase its mobilization in Sierra Leone. This allowed the U.S. government to focus its resources on Liberia, which by now had the overwhelming percentage of cases. Specific mobilization timelines were briefed to and agreed upon by Principals on September 12, 2014. The military had a scouting party in Monrovia four days later, the same day President Obama announced the escalation of the U.S. response, and Operation United Assistance, in a nationally televised speech at CDC. 20 In three days in September, 2014, a new theory of how the U.S. government as a whole can respond to epidemics was born. During an interview with CNN, Dempsey explained his reasoning for deploying the military to fight a disease in the same terms he described the U.S. approach to counterterrorism. “Ebola, to use a sports metaphor, needs to be an away game. And that's why the United States military is involved. I can promise you that the United States military will do its part, with civil authorities, to keep this thing from coming to our homeland.” Diplomatic Engagement The decision to dramatically escalate U.S. involvement in the Ebola response increased the pace and level of interagency coordination. The NSC staff was by now in full crisis support mode. A major focus during the rest of September, 2014 was ramping up the global response to the epidemic. The President and National Security Advisor engaged in multiple calls per day to their counterparts to secure international commitments of support and rally others who had resources to deploy. On September 18, 2014, Ambassador Samantha Power addressed a special meeting of the U.N. Security Council. On September 24, 2014, President Obama made a historic call for action at the U.N. General Assembly, which was preceded by a pledge drive that was spearheaded by the NSC staff. One of the early frustrations of NSC officials was the sluggishness of the State Department to support this coalition building effort. Secretary Kerry was not yet deeply involved. State sent an Undersecretary to represent it at to the first Principals Committee meeting on Ebola. There was a sense that no one on the “7th floor” where the Secretary and Deputy Secretary have offices or in the Africa Bureau recognized how dire things had become. State, in the eyes of the NSC, was missing how essential the diplomatic campaign was to preventing a regional crisis from becoming a global one. A confluence of factors in August and September, 2014 hampered State’s ability to respond. The spilling of ISIL over the Syrian-Iraqi border, the massacre of Yazidi men on Mount Sinjar in Iraq, and subsequent U.S. military and humanitarian mobilization consumed the Secretary at the same time he was participating in the NATO summit and U.N. General Assembly. Iran negotiations consumed the role of one of the Department’s Deputy Secretaries, while another Deputy Secretary who was charged with coordinating the Ebola response went on unexpected leave with pregnancy complications. Meanwhile, many of the staff who would later engage on Ebola had just managed Africa Leaders Summit at the beginning of August and scheduled personal leave during the period that turned out to be the very moment when the Ebola crisis escalated. Another part of the challenge for State was that the management of Ebola was distributed across many bureaus, both regional and functional, with no obvious “heavy” under which everyone could cohere. State also had no surge staffing mechanism to mobilize. “What is the State Department’s equivalent of a DART team?” one NSC official asked. This classic organizational impasse is something of a known failing of the State Department structure, National Security Advisor Susan Rice recommended the formation of a dedicated Ebola unit and supported the State Department’s decision to call Ambassador Nancy Powell, known for her work on avian influenza, out of retirement to run it. The State Department Ebola Coordination Unit (ECU) 21 opened its doors two days later, on September 15, 2014, more than a month after the WHO had declared a public health emergency of international concern and five and a half weeks after DoD established its own Ebola Task Force. The focus of the State coordination unit was to provide a single organizational center to support the building of a coalition of actors to work with the host governments while also ensuring that the Embassies in each country had sufficient staffing and financial support to perform emergency duties during the crisis. While the establishment of the Ebola Coordination Unit significantly improved State’s internal coordination and effectively ramped up State’s support to Embassies in the region, the State Department’s own lessons learned team documented shortcomings that were also noted by NSC staff. One early difference of opinion regarded who should take the lead in defining requirements for international donor assistance. Ambassador Powell wanted to defer to the UN, which is usually a best practice in a disaster response, and center diplomatic asks around a UN roadmap then under development. However, at the request of the WHO, the UN had not activated its Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and was in the initial process of standing up the United Nations Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER), which later was widely deemed to be ineffective and quite possibly counterproductive to the response. NSC staff assessed that the DART was further ahead at defining requirements and did not want to wait for the UN, UNMEER, and WHO, which by now were recognized as having lost control of the outbreak. The difference of opinion reflected a disagreement over what the threshold is for when an ongoing WHO response should be deemed ineffective. The ultimate ineffectiveness of UNMEER also points to the need to rely on existing institutions when speed is of the essence rather than to create new response entities out of whole cloth. The second issue was the agility of State’s response to the tempo of diplomatic events and a seeming reluctance to elevate issues to the 7th floor’s attention, which holds the offices of the Secretary and Deputy, perhaps out of deference to the many other crises occurring simultaneously. “If we decided at 4 pm that POTUS had to make a call,” a senior NSC official said, “he would make it the next morning. State's ordinary processes of writing and clearing points made it hard to kick into warp speed.” In part because the NSC moved much faster than State processes, the White House kept its own list of partner contributions even after that function was formally assigned to the State Department Ebola Coordination Unit. In the eyes of NSC staff, State’s contribution tracker was always less complete. The White House effectively led coordination of coalition building until the October timeframe, with NSC staff regularly developing the “asks” and delivering them through calls by the President or Ambassador Rice. Secretary Kerry did make dozens of high-levels calls in September and October and hosted an Ebola Ministerial. State’s Ebola Coordination Unit did also eventually put in place expedited clearance mechanisms with the Secretary’s staff and relevant bureaus. Despite these failings, the overall diplomatic campaign to mobilize international involvement in the response was later cited by NSC staff as one of the best examples of “a la carte internationalism” during the Administration’s second term. Turnover was also an impediment to smooth operations in State’s Ebola Coordination Unit. Though its leadership was consistent at the top, with two Ambassadors each serving several months at the helm, State’s own lessons learned team noted that only three staff worked on the Ebola Coordination Unit for more than three months. The rest were loaned from other bureaus 22 for short periods, sometimes for just a few days, with little of the formal “left seat, right seat” transition process used by the Joint Staff and at OFDA. The Ebola Coordination Unit also had to create spreadsheets used to track partner commitments that NSC officials were surprised did not already exist. Because the functions performed by the State Department during the response were in some ways the least novel in relation to institutional competencies, its performance deserves greater scrutiny and internal evaluation. While the adequate but imperfect performance by the Ebola Coordination Unit highlights the need for State to rethink its crisis staffing mechanisms and to lay better plans for managing global health emergencies, other parts of State turned in shining performances. The Ambassadors and Deputy Chief of Missions in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea were widely lauded by their colleagues for effectively managing through a crisis that threatened to unravel order in all three affected countries. Their spearheading of strategic communications campaigns helped foster behavior change among the population, and their daily engagement to help host governments work with the international response and pivot resources—all while overseeing an infusion of response staff and managing the ordered departure of two posts—was an exceptional example of heroic on-the-ground diplomacy. In addition to the shining performance of three U.S. Ambassadors, “State medevac saved lives,” as one NSC doctor put it, referring to State’s Office of Medical Services. The rapid negotiating and signing of the aeromedical evacuation contract with Phoenix Air Group by State’s Under Secretary for Management, and provision for the use of this contract on a reimbursable basis by other nations, cemented an essential capability that helped attract more health workers to the response. State’s legal office, “L”, also helped quickly address complex legal issues that arose in the response, to include the difficult task of negotiating an agreement with the government of Liberia that provided protections to U.S. health care officials who deployed to Liberia. State’s Africa bureau also hired a temporary employee to lead the Department’s corporate outreach and encourage U.S. companies to contribute to the response. USAID faced similar organizational stresses and also recognized the need for a senior coordinator to integrate the OFDA response with the rest of the building. When Nancy Lindborg, the USAID official that had been managing the response, announced her intention to retire in November, 2014, Administrator Raj Shah called Dirk Dijkerman out of retirement to perform this duty. Dijkerman, like Powell, was a seasoned crisis manager with a second to none reputation within USAID. He ended up staying for over six months, a tenure longer than Ambassador Powell, who departed after only 90 days in part because the mechanism State used to contract her expired at that point. Powell’s successor also departed at the same 90 day mark, raising the question of whether State should build in greater flexibility to its surge hiring contracts to allow events, rather than contractual limitations, to drive when emergency personnel come and go. The Department of Defense was also scrambling to integrate resources and expertise. A study conducted by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s Threat Reduction Advisory Committee (TRAC) noted that DoD’s health-related guidance and response capabilities are geared for either a disaster response, a conventional mission with a force health protection component, or a response to a biological attack. Operation United Assistance fell in between. The Office of 23 Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict (SOLIC) was tapped by Secretary Hagel to manage Ebola for the Department, on account of its usual role overseeing humanitarian missions and coordinating with USAID. SOLIC provided a coordinating function within DoD and led a regular tempo of “all-hands” meetings. However, the TRAC study noted, the initial DoD focus on providing logistical rather than medical or health assistance had the effect of sidelining technical experts in medical communities in the military services that could have provided better awareness of existing capabilities. The Joint Staff Surgeon General told the DoD lessons learned team how she kept learning more as the operation went on about capabilities she had no idea DoD had. The Chairman’s “redlines” against DoD personnel providing patient care moreover had the effect of suppressing conversation about deploying certain medical, biosecurity, and biosurveillance resources DoD did have in house, including epidemiologists, infectious disease specialists, and research staff who support austere field trials of experimental therapeutics and vaccines. The military’s refusal to transport people who had been in “hot zones” where active cases existed, or to transport Ebola blood samples, even though the samples were packaged to meet commercial air standards, required the White House to push for expanded UN air support. There was also a huge amount of self-censorship on asking for additional military support from USAID, HHS, and CDC once the DoD redlines were established by the Chairman and Secretary of Defense. The sense, one NSC staff member noted, was about not wanting to “spook” DoD by asking for more and in so doing threaten the support DoD had already pledged. An interesting hypothetical question is whether the Chairman would have drawn up his “redlines” at all—which in his view began as a negotiating tactic used to ensure other agencies shared the burden of responding—had his own planners, CDC, and USAID presented an integrated plan initially rather than USAID Administrator Raj Shah putting to Dempsey an ask in September, 2014 that appeared to come in the absence of a detailed interagency plan. DoD, at the same time, was under pressure from its oversight committees. Both the majority and majority on both the House and Senate Armed Services Committee expressed concerns about the risks Ebola posed to the health of deployed troops and the sudden use of the military to augment health responders. Both committees imposed specific conditions on the re-programming of funds that required DoD to provide assurances and analysis about how it would operate safely in this new environment and the timetable on which it would transition the mission to civilian health workers and contractors. These committees would have certainly scrutinized and likely resisted the use of DoD personnel in direct patient care. The TRAC study nevertheless notes that the decision by DoD to not fully engage its medical capabilities leaves a deficit for the future because of experience not cultivated in an actual epidemic response. TRAC urges the “redlines” be relaxed or abandoned in future responses, where the nation may need DoD to bring all its resources to the mission. To ensure a more coherent, all-Department response to the next epidemic crisis, TRAC recommends DoD assign a single office responsibility for preparedness, planning, training, and exercising epidemic response capabilities, rather than leave those responsibilities distributed, as they are now, between OSD-Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (AT&L)/Nuclear, Chemical, Biological (NCB) and other offices in OSD-Policy. TRAC also urges DoD assemble a single list of deployable capabilities to ensure Department leaders are aware what capabilities exist. 24 NSC Crisis Management Like the rest of the government, the NSC struggled with the demands suddenly imposed on its staff. In the eyes of key officials at departments and agencies, NSC was initially disorganized in its management of the escalation of the U.S. response. Internally, NSC Directorates surged staffing to support the nascent White House Ebola Task Force, which consisted of the Deputy Homeland Security Advisor, Senior Directors, and Directors who helped manage the response, most of whom had to continue their ordinary duties on top of their work for the Ebola Task Force. On October 17, 2014, amidst an atmosphere of crisis triggered by the Dallas cluster, the President tapped Ron Klain as NSC Ebola Coordinator. National Security Advisor Susan Rice and Homeland Security Advisor Lisa Monaco deliberately placed Klain in the NSC, knowing that the NSC had a robust organizational machinery to mobilize departments and agencies and an established policy coordination process to quickly identify decision for Principals and the President. Klain, like Powell and Dijkerman, was required to depart by a specific date associated with regulations of his hire as a Special Government Employee. The NSC also temporarily brought on board former NSC official Richard Reed, an experienced emergency manager, and Lyle Peterson, a senior CDC official who coordinated the later phases of CDC’s response to Thomas Duncan’s hospitalization in Dallas. Agencies report a significant increase in NSC effectiveness once Ron Klain started as Coordinator. The model of White House Ebola Task Force is an obvious object of study as the NSC contemplates finalizing its draft Domestic Incident Coordination Plan and crisis management PPD. Both the international and domestic aspects of the Ebola response presented many novel challenges that quickly eclipsed the ability of agencies to manage through normal processes. Seams internal to the NSC also manifested themselves, with the need for greater integration emerging between the Directorates who focused on the international response, such as Democracy and Development, WMD Threat Reduction, Defense, and Multilateral Affairs, and those Directorates like Resilience and Transborder that focused on the domestic response. Integrating NSC activities with the wider Executive Office of the President, and especially the press, political, and legislative advisors in West Wing, also proved challenging but necessary, given the broader considerations that came into play once the public reaction to Ebola, and calls for a travel ban, became a front burner issue. The most expedient way to effectively pull together a cohesive interagency and White House response to Ebola was to essentially “operationalize” the NSC, which was simultaneously required to formulate policy for many previously un-encountered situations and to closely coordinate its implementation. Under Coordinator Klain the White House Ebola Task Force at times took great interest in overseeing tactical and operational decisions that in more ordinary circumstances would have been addressed by departments and agencies. The degree to which policy and actions in the response required management—and at times micromanagement— by the White House varied based on circumstances. In many cases whole new policies had to be drawn up. In other cases it was clear that only White House officials could make assessments about what level of risk and political consequences the Administration was willing to tolerate. Similarly, there were many moments when management decisions needed to be made faster than the ordinary NSC IPC-DC-PC process could function. To speed his ability to act, the NSC 25 exempted Klain and his staff from following the usual Executive Secretary process for the submission of information memos, coordination with other offices, and scheduling of DCs, PCs, NSCs. The line from Klain to the NSC leadership and White House Chief of Staff was direct, and he did not shy away from reaching deeply into departments and agencies to ensure things were working effectively. Given the strong dynamics for centralizing the decision making process when facing novel circumstances, a question worth exploring further in the context of NSC crisis management is whether the model of pushing several more senior USAID, CDC, DoD, and State representatives to work directly on the White House Ebola Task Force would have further tightened the integration of White House and agency decision-making. In the view of several senior officials at State and USAID, NSC and OMB have a coordinating role that is so crucially important that in a true crisis, a handful of senior interagency folks pushed right to the White House might have actually made it easier for their agency to integrate itself in the response. This surge model that includes agency staff, which is an element in the Domestic Incident Response Plan, is important to consider in the context of the intent to downsize the NSC staff. Especially as the NSC downsizes, more surge staffing from outside the NSC may be needed during crises to unburden NSC Directors consumed by their “crisis jobs” and “day jobs.” Work became so intense through the fall of 2014 that one of the NSC’s medical doctors pointed out that using a shift model would have been far preferable to having staff operating on only a few hours of sleep for months on end. The NSC Ebola Task Force under Klain brought other components of the White House together with the core NSC staff members. Congressional relations staff at the White House, who had been closely involved since early September, worked closely with Klain on Congressional strategy. The importance of maintaining trust with Congress was essential given the funding and resource transfers that were immediately needed for response activities to continue for any length of time. The decision for USAID and DoD to always brief the Congress jointly, and to do so with officials from HHS’ ASPR and CDC, sent a signal of unity that was particularly well received on the Hill. Interest from Hill staff was so intense that at times 600 people joined weekly update phone calls. The trust built will Hill staffers and members helped win approval for the reprogramming of OCO to OHDACA, which occurred before Klain’s arrival, and provided support for the supplemental funding bill that soon became necessary, which Klain personally saw through both Houses of Congress. Early involvement of OMB, and the rapid maneuvering of DoD to secure operation funds, was key to ensuring the response could continue before passage of the supplemental. During September and October the White House Office of Science & Technology Policy (OSTP) worked with the NSC, USAID, and its own National Science & Technology Council to mobilize the science and engineering community though “Grand Challenges” and other events. Science and technology officials at DTRA, HHS/ASPR, NIH, CDC, DHS’s National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center and in other agencies and departments worked under OSTP’s leadership to distill the government’s best expertise on many issues related to the response, including personal protective equipment, medical countermeasures, therapeutics, diagnostics, and vaccines. 26 The NSC legal staff and White House Counsel’s Office also convened lawyers from across the government to address how the basic authorities of each department and agency can be used in the context of an international health crisis and domestically absent a Stafford Act declaration, which provides the federal government with many more authorities and funding mechanisms but can only be declared by FEMA under specific circumstances. The legal group explored questions around the authorities of the federal government to prevent travel of individuals exposed to Ebola to the US; to quarantine them once they arrive; to require state and local authorities to track individuals admitted to the US; and to implement various kinds of bans on travel. The group helped identify areas of overlap of authorities, areas where the exercise of authorities is dependent on the cooperation of another department or agency, and areas where our system of federalism leaves power with state and local governments. The end product was a summary of legal authorities that served as a useful guide to inform policy discussion on what actions could be taken based on federal authority and what actions required the cooperation of state and local authorities. Military Deployment President Obama announced Operation United Assistance in a speech at the Centers for Disease Control on September 16, 2014, four days after Principals recommended the DoD mobilization. Maj. Gen. Darryl Williams arrived in Monrovia that same day with an advance party of thirteen U.S. military personnel. Within eight weeks more than two thousand U.S. military personnel would be in Liberia, a number that peaked at just over 2,800 in December. The presence in Italy of a large number of engineers who were returning from a training mission in early September was fortuitous. AFRICOM immediately redeployed them to Liberia along with a Marine aviation detachment. Within days of the President’s announcement of Operation United Assistance, tilt-rotor Marine V-22 Ospreys, one of the loudest and most unusual looking aircraft in the inventory, were thumping their way all over Liberia, serving as visual symbols that the Calvary had arrived. A military and civilian air bridge was up and running quickly thanks to emergency repairs made to the runways and taxi areas of Roberts Field in Monrovia, Liberia by a team of Air Force Red Horse engineers and the establishment of an intermediate staging base in Dakar, Senegal. U.S. Transportation Command gave higher priority to Ebola supplies on their way to West Africa than material supporting the anti-ISIL campaign then underway in the Middle East. The military mobilization proceeded as expected at DoD, if not as fast as some at USAID and the NSC imagined the military could move, with the rainy season proving the biggest obstacle to the construction of basing and Ebola treatment facilities and flow of troops. The Joint Forces Command established in Monrovia discovered the planned location for certain facilities to be under water. A finding of AFRICOM was that longer than expected times to survey and prepare sites selected for construction of Ebola Treatment Units occurred in part because local communities designated parcels of land that were themselves not ideal sites and required major remediation before vertical building could occur. Should treatment facilities need to be built quickly in a future outbreak, it will be important to evaluate potential sites with an eye toward speed-of-build, while keeping the trust of communities who are naturally inclined to want to distance themselves from any treatment facility. Mobile testing laboratories deployed through the Defense Threat Reduction Agency in September and October, 2014 substantially enhanced 27 the speed and volume of confirmatory blood testing. The deployment by DoD of these labs was a crucial aspect of the response. From USAID’s perspective, an inordinate amount of time in the initial weeks of Operation United Assistance was spent defining the precise nature of the military mission, with long pauses on operational decisions as commanders in the field sought clarification from higher headquarters at USAFRICOM and USAFRICOM in turn engaged the Joint Staff and Office of the Secretary of Defense. In comparison with other disaster responses, USAID personnel noted the inability of the military commander on the ground to make unilateral judgments without getting higher guidance on novel operational issues. The Chairman’s “redlines” about what the military could and should provide, together with the many novel policy questions the operation raised and a lack of understanding within DoD of what capabilities existed across the department, triggered a significant degree of internal adjudication of each operational decision. “It seemed to us like a big tug-of-war between various parties within the Pentagon,” OFDA’s Director observed. The tug of war was pressurized further by insistence from the White House and CDC and USAID leadership that the DART team make use of DoD capabilities to speed the response. DoD in turn insisted that it only provide capabilities USAID requested through the formal “MITAM” processes run by the DART, the way USAID has historically requested the tactical application of military assets during a disaster response. The insistence upon using this formal method of tasking assets became a chicken and egg problem, with DoD not wanting to volunteer capabilities before a formal request, and USAID unsure what capabilities existed to request. The early days of Operation United Assistance highlight a classic operational dilemma. Those in the field often don’t know what capabilities exist across the government, or even in their own departments, and so don't know to ask for them. The unique challenges of health events mean that in future responses, more expertise should be pushed forward early, so that requirements are defined with full awareness of what capabilities the Federal government has available. Quicker adjudication of policy matters will also be needed, especially if an epidemic is airborne and rapidly transmissible. At a certain point, frustrated with the inability to get answers out of DoD, USAID personnel resorted to litigating matters of policy and strategy through the MITAM processes, which ordinarily only relays tactical requests like the need for air support to move USAID personnel to a specific location and back. In USAID’s view, putting every question about possible support to DoD through the MITAM was the only sure way to communicate their requests clearly and force resolution of them amid the internal debates within DoD about what kind of support to provide. A fruitful area for further study is how the command and control systems USAID uses to make requests of interagency partners, especially the MITAMs process, can incorporate both tactical and strategic requests. The greatest difficulty mobilizing personnel in the response occurred in the agencies that do not regularly deploy large operational teams abroad. When the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps (USPHS) identified the 70-person contingency to staff the Monrovia Medical Unit, they discovered not enough stock of Yellow Fever vaccines were in house and requested assistance from the U.S. military to vaccinate their personnel before deploying. 28 Although USPHS was eventually able to contract a commercial charter flight to move their personnel to Monrovia, they at first requested MILAIR transport. U.S. healthcare workers intending to work in the MMU and ETUs, including those dispatched by the USPHS, also had to be trained in infectious disease protocols on Ebola. To train them the CDC established a three-day experiential training course for over 600 nurses, physicians, and other healthcare providers intending to work in West Africa. The course was modeled after curricular developed by Medicine Sans Frontier and held at the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency Center for Domestic Preparedness in Anniston, Alabama. CDC found deploying so many personnel for so long presented novel challenges. Proper travel and evacuation insurance had to be let. Employees could earn overtime, but CDC lacked a mechanism to offer hazard pay, as DoD and State are able to offer personnel serving in dangerous stations overseas. CDC simply did not have the human resource systems, compensation structures, and pre- and post-deployment support infrastructure for the scale and speed of this response. USAID also had to deal with many novel issues related to the Ebolaspecific nature of the response, including requests for indemnification from contractors it had never before broached. A theme that runs throughout the response is that agencies who do not having standing operational capabilities often find it very difficult to go operational in a hurry. The need to either support the scaling-up of operational capabilities within agencies like CDC, or have agencies “outsource” their operational needs in a hurry, is one of the most important findings of this study. The international organizations that responded ran into similar complications with the healthspecific nature of the response. As it does in humanitarian emergencies as the head of the UN logistics cluster, the World Food Program eventually became the logistical backbone of the Ebola response in West Africa, supplanting the U.S. military as it redeployed. Yet the World Food Program and the WHO were trying to move medical material and supplies with systems meant for managing a non-medical humanitarian response. When it came to PPE in the early days, no one had a very good handle on who could produce what at what volumes and where they were in the world, or even what was needed. The Ebola Task Force asked for the assistance of the Department of Commerce and certain contracting mechanisms at DoD to ensure PPE supply chains for US personnel would be adequate for the scale for the response. Data & Partner Integration One of the most fundamental responsibilities of the response is keeping track of where the virus is and where it is going. Identifying key indicators that would reveal the trajectory of the disease in a timely manner was a priority of White House decision-makers. Data integration challenges and the time-lag of data flow meant that CDC’s epidemiologic indicators often provided a trailing rather than a leading indicator of where to direct the humanitarian and medical response. Because medical, laboratory, and health systems in the region were overwhelmed, CDC had difficulty generating reliable epidemiological data in October or November and was cautious about sharing partial analysis that required conjecture or involved a proxy. For policy makers, it 29 was incredibly frustrating to not have something that gave a solid indication of whether the response was moving in the right direction. The difficulty in identifying reliable indicators resulted in part from systemic deficits in the data itself and how it was aggregated. In West Africa, phone and internet connectivity is limited and much of the population is distributed in rural villages reached by roads that are impassable in the rainy season. A local workforce to perform data collection and basic analysis was lacking. The data system driving the response was decidedly based upon 19th century tools. Most ETUs recorded patient data using pen and paper. Locations of bodies of the dead were tracked with stick pins on maps. Collating data about clusters of infection and matching patients who turned up in Ebola treatment units with the results of testing performed on their blood samples in labs that were often hundreds of miles away required Herculean efforts. Data reliability was so problematic in the beginning that the U.N. had at one point to retract its announcement of meeting safe burial and treatment targets because its own data were not verifiable. By early October, a rough system of case reporting had emerged, centered in a statistical cell in the Liberian Ministry of Health that was supported by WHO, CDC, and USAID staff and partners working country wide. County health coordinators, with cell phones and phone credits often provided by international donors, would call in with daily case tallies from local Ebola treatment units—unconfirmed, suspected, confirmed. A small staff of Liberian health ministry workers, augmented over time with international staff and several members of the military’s Joint Forces Command, would collate these reports into an Excel spreadsheet and push aggregate numbers out for reporting to the WHO, which did in turn produced detailed reporting and analysis for West Africa as a whole. An international statistical expert that served as a consultant in the unit later remarked to White House staff that to fight an epidemic, “you need Microsoft Excel and confidence.” "I managed the whiteboard,” he said, which tracked each step in processing a suspected case. The system, however, was cumbersome and prone to miscounts. There were “three cards -- data entry upon pick up at a sick patient’s house, upon arrival in the ETU, then when samples were taken for labs.” Because the patient was often semi-coherent and may have been abandoned by family members or fallen unconscious on the way to seek treatment, it was not always possible to know their name or get the correct spelling of it. The statistical cell spent a great deal of time reconciling data. Quality control and verification required a great deal of time. “It was very difficult to merge in the database,” the expert said. For that reason he focused not on day-to-day numbers of active cases, which would often jump up or down due to delayed reporting. For him, the key number was the aggregate caseload for the two-week reporting periods. Focus on that number, the expert said, and you knew whether we were winning or losing. The deployment of USAID’s Chief Innovation Officer with a team of connectivity and data specialists took place later than was ideal. When they did finally arrive in country in November, 2014, they began assembling a schematic of data flows in the response and worked to overcome blockages where they identified them. “Just good enough” tech was their mantra, knowing that motorbikes, cell phone cards, and paper were often the best way to move blood samples, information about test results, and caseload data to and from rural ETUs. Facebook’s donation 30 of $20 million dollars of satellite Internet terminals also helped, as did connectivity and computer equipment and vehicles donated by the CDC Foundation. The mutual incomprehension of capabilities and mission that plagued early CDC-USAID interaction extended to their use of data. CDC was oriented to collect detailed epidemiological data on individual cases and clusters, which was not necessarily what the DART needed to scale the response as the virus hopscotched its way from community to community. CDC’s system for caseload data about the epidemic crashed early in the fall, having not been designed to handle the number of cases now occurring in Liberia. USAID was left struggling to assemble a picture of where the epidemic was, where it is was going, and where to push resources. The DART and CDC reached greater coherency on data by late fall, but this structural mismatch reflects the larger mismatch between biosurveillance and health data systems on the one hand and humanitarian response data systems on the other. In an ordinary disaster response, the United Nations Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the U.N.’s Information and Communications Technology (ITC) cluster would have been involved. But they were not mobilized in this case because of the WHO’s early insistence of control over the response as a whole. The functions they would have performed devolved to the U.S. government’s DART and CDC, which had not in the past had to help support a countrywide system of medical reporting. The U.S. government has in its inventory several partially developed biosurveillance systems, including at least three separate systems in the Department of Defense, that could have provided, with some modification, a potentially more robust information management system for the response. DoD briefed the USAID Chief Innovation Officer on these systems, but several factors prevented their deployment. Part of the reluctance was that they were systems perceived to be operated by the military. Part of the issue was that none was “just right” in terms of functionality offered, given the operational difficulty of collecting, transmitting, and analyzing data within the context of the Liberian health system. Part of the issue, too, was that the systems did not easily link to and share data to each other or to systems used by CDC, USAID, or the NGOs who worked in the response. Recognizing the need to rationalize the USG’s investment in this area and make systems fully interoperable, an interagency working group had begun meeting on biosurveillance systems when the epidemic began. Its members quickly disbursed to assume crisis duties, leaving outstanding the question of how to integrate data systems in DoD, CDC, and USAID before the next epidemic, an issue critical to the success of the Global Health Security Agenda, which includes a specific target on biosurveillance capacity. Where responders on the ground saw immense challenges finding basic data, like roadmaps of rural villages and locations of health clinics and traditional healers, the community of civil society digital mappers and digital humanitarians saw an opportunity to help. To match the skills of this loose community to the needs of data users on the ground, the White House Chief Technology Office hosted twice weekly calls on data support for the epidemic. The idea was to bring together data users and data owners in a “market” so they could find each other and work together solving operational problems. For the first several weeks of the call and its associated 31 message board, more than 100 organizations participated. They ranged from members of the U.S. intelligence community that were able to provide declassified imagery and maps to data taggers who volunteered to help fuse databases into a single usable map. The White House Chief Technology Officer calls concluded after a couple months when most organizations working on the response migrated to a similar weekly call run by USAID. The lessons learned report completed by two Presidential Innovation Fellows who helped organize the data market calls lauded its overall success while flagging several barriers. The first barrier was government officials not being allowed access to the data and collaboration tools used by responders in the field. Most government agencies, for reasons of cybersecurity, do not allow employees to access common platforms such as Google Docs or Skype, the voice-over-IP calling app, on office networks. As a result, State and USAID personnel interacting directly with NGOs and other implementing partners on the ground constantly had to rush off to coffee shops to access these services on wifi and personal computers. Their lessons learned report suggests easy remedies. One is for network administrators to create special enclaves to host these services and then authorize designated response officials to use them. The other is to run Ethernet from a commercial provider into government office space and set up stand-alone systems. Leveraging the community of “digital humanitarians” turned out to be a smaller subset of a larger problem. The response as a whole had challenges integrating donations of expertise and material from other nations, the private sector, and foundations. Examples of donations gone awry include hundreds of cots donated for Ebola treatment units that were not certified to be safely decontaminated to hundreds of thousands of pieces of PPE donated by the Japanese government that were not suitable for protecting healthcare workers from a hemorrhagic fever. Many of these supplies were hauled to West Africa at great expense, only to sit unused in warehouses, reflecting the need to overhaul the WHO’s process for managing the PPE supply chain. Likewise, the Paul G. Allen Foundation’s $100 million gift given at the outset of the outbreak effectively turned the organization into an “operational foundation” that performed duties that supported and augmented USAID and CDC teams in the field. The CDC foundation also contributed $56 million in resources. The new concentration of foundations that work in the health and epidemic space, who in aggregate contributed more resources than most of our European partners, means the U.S. government needs to think about the foundation community as it does our major allies. To harness this new source of resources, USAID Global Development Lab’s study on private sector and philanthropic coordination recommends OFDA hire two GS-15 “philanthropic coordination officers" whose job it would be develop relationships and communicate with all the major foundations and private donors on a regular basis, with appropriate coordination with agency ethics and legal officials. Their presence at OFDA will provide a “bellybutton” for integrating private sector and philanthropic contributions into responses. These officials could even be trained to deploy with the DART. Their presence would help bring greater coherency than was achieved in the outbreak’s early phases, when the activities of major donors, USAID, and the CDC were only loosely synchronized. The Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA) will also be a useful convening framework for the integration of foundation activities in global health. 32 The Domestic Response As the international response played out, how to prevent Ebola from spreading to the U.S. was foremost on policymakers’ minds, especially after Thomas Duncan became the first person to be diagnosed with Ebola on U.S. soil. Officials at the NSC were well aware of the public anxiety about Ebola, fueled by the media, and the reactionary decision-making this sometimes drove at local, state, and federal levels. The danger, in the NSC’s and the President’s perspective, was that Americans could be exposed to a dangerous virus if mitigating measures were not taken. Beyond failing to protect the nation from Ebola, a mismanagement of the domestic response would also likely turn public opinion against U.S. participation in the international response, making the public less willing to support the actual measures that would help bring the epidemic to an end. This concern was not abstract. Nearly a quarter of WHO member states instituted travel bans for the affected West African countries. Such actions not only went against the WHO’s International Health Regulations. They also prevented many healthcare workers who had volunteered to serve in the response from going home to their native countries, a strong disincentive to the very labor force whose skills were most needed to stop Ebola transmission. Aspects of the U.S. domestic response began to take shape in July as the White House prepared for the August 2014 African Leaders Summit. The event brought hundreds of Africans to Washington, D.C., leading the NSC to hold several interagency discussions on how to ensure the National Capital Region was prepared to identify and properly respond to potential symptoms of Ebola among members of the government, youth, and business delegations from Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. These meetings identified challenges that would have to be addressed nationwide, such as the limited number of facilities capable of testing for Ebola and the long time required to transport a sample and receive test results. In the weeks leading up to the summit, CDC provided Ebola awareness information to health providers and emergency responders in and around Washington, taking the first steps of what became a nationwide education campaign for U.S. healthcare workers and facilities. The State Department demarched the three West African governments on the need to conduct Ebolarelated departure screening at their airports and to ensure delegation members who exhibited any signs or symptoms of Ebola, or who had been exposed to the virus, did not travel to the United States. CDC worked to establish departure screening at airports in the region. It was the beginning of a system that would ultimately screen more than 450,000 travelers leaving West Africa. DHS and CDC conducted arrival health screening on the delegations from Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia and began providing Ebola awareness flyers to arriving travelers from the region that recommended they monitor their temperature and symptoms and inform healthcare professionals of their recent travel. The sudden and unexpected medical evacuations of Kent Brantly and Nancy Writebol from West Africa to Atlanta drove home the reality that any substantial international outbreak could have domestic implications. The NSC, in other words, must always plan for epidemics that cross international borders. Then a chain of events starting in late September–Thomas Duncan’s admission to Dallas Presbyterian Hospital, the subsequent infection of two Presbyterian Hospital nurses, their medical evacuations and treatment, and the unrelated domestic case of Craig Spencer in New York City—gave rise to public hysteria that drastically accelerated the pace of 33 the domestic response and turned Ebola into a front burner political issue with substantial liabilities for the President. After examining this hectic period and the months that followed, federal lessons learned teams studying the domestic response sorted issues associated with managing Ebola in the homeland into bins of “wins” and “more work to do.” Wins include establishing a nationwide Ebola treatment system consisting of regional centers, treatment centers, assessment hospitals, and frontline facilities; enhancing the nationwide lab network to quickly test patients experiencing symptoms; standing up a system of passenger funneling and screening at U.S. ports-of-entry; establishing an active monitoring program in partnership with local public health departments to detect potential Ebola cases as quickly as possible; contracting aeromedical evacuation and transport capability inside and outside of the United States; and introducing more specific infection disease control protocols and PPE standards for Ebola. Each is an example of a successful policy approach developed and then refined in the course of the response that reflect great credit on the NSC Ebola Task Force, DHS, HHS, and state and local health departments nationwide. In the “work to do” category is improving public health risk communications; enhancing domestic incident response policy to clarify Federal roles and responsibilities in the absence of the declaration of a Stafford Act emergency; translating lessons learned during Ebola to future infectious disease outbreaks, including by addressing medical, intergovernmental, and interagency coordination gaps; improving non-Stafford Act disaster funding mechanisms; developing a deployable infectious disease treatment capability; and strengthening hazardous waste management. Funneling, Screening and Monitoring The system of passenger funneling, screening, and active monitoring implemented by FAA, DHS, and HHS in the fall of 2014 was devised by policymakers to serve three purposes. Most fundamental was the very existence of the system, which gave the public confidence that Ebola would not be spread in the U.S. by a person who recently arrived from West Africa. The system helped officials counter calls for more restrictive measures or outright bans on travel. The second purpose was to enhance the domestic response by pairing travelers from West Africa with the public health officials and facilities that would be responsible for caring for them should they become symptomatic. Rather than needing every hospital in the U.S. to be prepared to handle an Ebola case arriving in their emergency room, the active monitoring system, in partnership with the designation of treatment and testing facilities, dramatically scaled down what the domestic response had to focus on to be successful. Its third purpose was to provide a rich source of data about who had entered the U.S., where they would be traveling, and whether they were symptomatic and in need of further evaluation and possibly testing. More than 32,000 travelers to the U.S. were ultimately monitored. Homeland Security Advisor Lisa Monaco notes that the rapid stand-up of passenger funneling protocols benefited from the targeting rules developed to identify terrorists attempting to travel by air to the U.S. The screening tools developed in the aftermath of 9/11 was used in the case of Ebola to identify travelers who matched a set of criteria that indicated they were traveling from 34 an Ebola affected country and needed to be screened upon entry to the U.S. The anti-terrorism infrastructure set up by the Department of Homeland Security and interagency partners found a new public health use-case that helped protect the American public from exposure to Ebola. While these measures went beyond what some Federal health officials thought was strictly necessary from a medical perspective, they allowed for a more strategic and efficient way to use resources in the face of cries from some in the public to shut down all travel between the United States and West Africa. These practices may not be a feasible or recommended in the future, as the funneling to a limited number of airports was only possible because the number of travelers was small. There were also gaps in this system, particularly with travelers from Africa who broke journey in Europe and then continued to the U.S. on a separate itinerary. But this system of active monitoring nevertheless constitutes a significant innovation in the response to an infectious disease that posed a credible threat to the U.S. public resulting from the President’s personal determination to ensure decisions made were evidence based and proportionate to the threat. Domestic Ebola Hospital Network HHS’s work with state and local authorities, healthcare providers, and emergency responders to build a network of medical facilities capable of identifying, isolating, and treating Ebola patients is also a particularly notable success. To build this system, which consists of regional centers, Ebola treatment centers, assessment hospitals, and frontline facilities, the Federal government funded healthcare coalitions to make investments to hospital infrastructure, update procedures, establish reserves of PPE and other supplies, and conduct extensive training to meet defined safety standards. CDC “Rapid Ebola Preparedness” teams, composed of expert in infection control, occupational health, and laboratory testing, made visits to 81 facilities in 21 states and the District of Columbia. This network is now well-positioned to serve major U.S. population centers, as most of the United States is within a 2-hour radius of an Ebola treatment center. The Federal government also designated three facilities, at Emory hospital in Atlanta, University of Nebraska Medical Center, and the NIH, as the preferred location for treating Ebola cases. All but one of the patients with Ebola treated in these centers survived. The CDC’s Laboratory Response Network (LRN) consists of more than 130 domestic and international laboratories whose mission is the detection of bioterrorism agents and emerging infectious diseases, such as Ebola. Some of this lab capacity is funded by the DHS BioWatch system. Prior to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, Ebola could only be confirmed by the CDC in Atlanta. As of August, 2014, thirteen LRN laboratories were qualified to test for Ebola. As of December 1, 2014, 42 LRN laboratories are approved to test for Ebola. This increase in capacity dramatically decreased turnaround time for Ebola results domestically. Typically, from receipt of a specimen in the lab, a result is now available in 4-6 hours, compared with the close to 24 hours needed for some of the first domestic test results, due to delays in sample acquisition and transportation. The decrease in time allows clinicians to make patient-care decisions in a shorter time-frame and significantly enhances the ability of public health officials to rule out Ebola among persons under investigation during the screening and monitoring portion of the response. 35 Looking forward, lessons learned teams focused on the need for the federal government to ensure that investments made in domestic hospital preparedness continue in the future. To complement investments made during the Ebola response, some have suggested HHS support the development of emerging infectious disease care systems, with standards and accreditation or verification, to lay a foundation for the government, private, for-profit, and non-profit sectors to build upon as a long-term national capability. Taking the Ebola treatment network built during the Ebola epidemic as a starting point, two areas in particular seem ripe for investment. The first is continued investment by HHS in the regional centers and treatment centers to ensure that the capabilities established during the Ebola epidemic are available for future infectious disease outbreaks. Particular attention should be paid to transitioning these facilities from Ebola facilities to infectious disease facilities more generally. The second is because the surge capacity the government can mobilize is ultimately small compared with the possible demands of a more sustained and widespread public health emergency, private hospital capacity and infection control is a crucial part of the preparedness equation. It is here that the day-to-day work of infection control training and local capacity become crucial pieces of the nation’s overall capacity to respond and be resilient in the face of a dangerous pathogen. Should one infect large numbers of people, local hospitals and clinics, rather than designated facilities, would become the front lines of treatment. The NSC must ensure investments in infection control capability nationwide are sufficiently scaled to the increased risk pandemic disease presents to the homeland. Risk Communications Despite risk communication being a standing field in public health, and risk communications staff being present in Federal and state health agencies, scientists and public health experts were largely unsuccessful in creating public confidence around how Ebola was being handled domestically. In the view of one NSC official, images of the President hugging the nurse from Dallas seemed to do far more to assure the public than any organized attempt at “risk communications.” How CDC and the rest of the government can be better postured to manage the flow of information and interaction with the media will be important going forward, to better control both the “epidemic of fear” and the “epidemic of disease.” An analysis of how to combine crisis and risk communications, and why the approach to communicating largely failed in this response, is important to undertake given how much faith has historically been placed in “risk communications science” being able to influence public behavior. This capability is even vital given how crucial social mobilization is to controlling the spread of disease. Who should be the face of the government is an important consideration for leaders managing the response. It varied at differing points during August and early September, with officials from CDC, NIH, and NSC at times playing leading on-camera roles. The NSC and White House Chief of Staff’s office made a deliberate decision in mid-September to effectively make the President the Administration’s spokesperson on Ebola. He spoke to the American public on Ebola at least weekly for the next two months. Domestic Incident Response Policy 36 The most defining event in the domestic management of Ebola happened when Liberian citizen and visitor to the U.S. Thomas Duncan tested positive for Ebola on September 29, 2014. The circumstances surrounding Duncan’s diagnosis and treatment in Dallas, Texas revealed gaps in the Federal government’s approach to the domestic containment of Ebola. Lessons learned teams studying what happened in Dallas and CDC’s own after action assessment note how the Federal government, and particularly CDC, was not well positioned to manage all aspects of the response and that the incident was made more complex because it did not merit a Stafford Act declaration but nonetheless requires significant Federal involvement. Responses to public health threats like Ebola require tight coordination among Federal agencies, state, local, and foreign governments, and private sector actors. During such incidents, clarity of Federal roles and responsibilities and coordination across the Federal interagency are paramount. Little of this was present in Dallas. Some had an expectation that CDC was going to help with healthcare delivery, yet healthcare delivery is not a function of CDC. CDC’s initial forward deployed team was built against a set of technical health requirements and was not equipped to manage the conflicts that developed between the hospital, state, and local authorities. The Dallas incident played out such that the “media crush” of local press attention materially interfered with the mechanics of the incident response, a serious failure of public affairs. The CDC also was not equipped, and did not have clear authority, to perform incident command without being requested to do so by the state of Texas. The peculiarities of the local political environment meant that Dallas county and the state of Texas each set up parallel incident command structures that issued conflicting guidance, further confusing command and control. Statements that CDC had many years of experience with Ebola, which accrued from rural African contexts rather than managing it in U.S. hospitals, built up an expectation of competence that suddenly unraveled, to great public alarm. The infection of two nurses caring for Duncan in Dallas show just how quickly the premise articulated by CDC’s Director that any U.S. hospital could successfully treat Ebola fell apart, along with CDC’s approach to working with local authorities during a crisis. Existing CDC guidance documents for PPE that were based on available data as of August 2014 were insufficient. It is now clear that CDC’s initial PPE requirements were not specific enough, did not come with sufficient training and direct observation of donning and doffing, and did not break down actions personnel must follow into pre-event, event, and post-event stages, each of which must be managed differently. As the chaos in Dallas unfolded, “no one hit the FEMA button,” in the words of one NSC official. CDC’s public health expertise, combined with FEMA incident management support, could potentially have provided the incident command structure necessary to bring better order to the situation. A more robust Federal response may have activated the EPA to assist with the management of hazardous waste. The EPA, which has authority under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act and the National Contingency Plan, could have provided a Federal on-scene coordinator to Dallas to “direct and coordinate” actions to secure, categorize, and clean up the Duncan apartment complex. Because Ebola could be categorized as a “pollutant or contaminant,” EPA has the ability as a first Federal responder to do this without invitation from states and localities, as happened for the 2001 anthrax attacks in Florida and Washington, DC. Even though it is not clear that state and local officials desired or would have deferred to incident management by FEMA, Dallas showed that FEMA/CDC 37 cooperation is underdeveloped and that protocols need to be revisited for deploying FEMA to assist in health emergencies that fall below the Stafford Act threshold. Discussions took place in the White House over how to better tie-in the local public health authorities in Texas with federal authorities skilled in incident response. Though the full National Response Framework as specified in HSPD-5 was not activated, a decision made deliberately by NSC and DHS leadership after extensively considering the pros and cons, with Secretary Jeh Johnson consulting directly with Homeland Security Advisor Lisa Monaco and White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough, Monaco instigated a call between President Obama and the Governor of Texas, in which the President offered FEMA assistance and after which FEMA deployed a coordinator to assist with incident management at the hospital and in Dallas. Texas officials were also in touch with the FEMA reginal manager, but the full expertise that federal officials could have provided was not called upon by the state of Texas officials responding on the scene. Taking a step back, it’s possible to see the larger challenge the Duncan case in Dallas lays bare is how to have a sliding scale of escalation of public sector response, from local authorities acting on their own to local authorities acting with some Federal assistance, to a declaration of a Public Health Emergency and the full activation by DHS of the National Response Framework. The advent of Ebola cases in the U.S. was an example of a situation that fell far short of an acute catastrophic event, but was of such a magnitude and complexity that it necessitated a sustained whole-of-government response. Absent an overall coordinating framework, Federal, state, and local authorities never developed a smooth working relationship that leveraged the expertise and authorities of each effectively. As a result, failures occurred in disinfection, the collection, transport, and disposal of hazardous waste, the provision of social services for those placed under quarantine, and post-event monitoring and travel restrictions for potentially exposed health workers. At the heart of this lack of coordination was a “confusion around constitutional limits to Federal authorities versus state authorities,” in the words of one CDC official. In the view of one of the lead officials sent to Dallas, CDC presumed a higher level of competence at local and state levels than existed. Other Federal departments and agencies trusted that state and local incident managers would follow a textbook incident response approach and call in federal support when they needed it. Additionally, traditionally, public health issues are managed at the state and local level and CDC defers to those officials. Going forward it is clear Federal authorities need to be prepared to be far more hands-on and to pursue more comprehensive relationship building among federal, state, local, and tribal incident response personnel and agencies, while of course operating within the legal construct where certain authorities are exclusively federal where others are exclusively state and local. CDC ultimately revealed to Federal officials a “culture of deference” to state and local officials that profoundly affected the contours of the response. The far more controlled and successful management of a second Ebola case in New York City fifteen days after Duncan’s death showcased more thorough preplanning by local, state, and federal authorities, while also illustrating more of the challenges that come with treating Ebola in the United States. Active monitoring worked as expected, triggering safe transport of the patient to a designated Ebola treatment facility, which within a few hours provided conformation of Ebola via a blood test. Contact tracing quickly established who else was at risk. Yet the case 38 also surfaced the need to tighten communications, protocols, and risk classifications, and handle large amounts of medical waste from a Category A pathogen. As an illustration of the scale of resources involved, over 500 members of the New York City of Health played a part in this single case, at a cost of $4,300,000. Funding The domestic Ebola response also highlighted shortfalls with Federal disaster funding mechanisms. Even at the height of the Ebola response in October and November of 2014, HHS had trouble moving funds, hiring specialized personnel, and deploying experts to the field. In the absence of Congress providing an emergency supplemental appropriation, HHS would have seriously struggled to manage the incident under its own authorities and funding. Beyond HHS, many agencies struggle to find the funds necessary to respond to emergencies in the absence of a Stafford Act declaration. FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund is the primary source available to finance the Federal government’s response to domestic incidents, but in practice the expenditure of funds is limited without a Stafford Act declaration. Other agencies may or may not have their own emergency funding accounts. To respond to urgent situations under their own authorities, most agencies rely on reprogramming existing funds from standing accounts, reimbursing other agencies for the provision of services, or requesting a supplemental emergency appropriation from Congress. These options require significant amounts of time and administrative resources. None move as quickly as epidemics. NSC and OMB should work with departments and agencies to conduct a comprehensive review of Federal disaster/emergency funding authorities to determine which agencies require additional funding mechanisms and/or transfer authorities to respond effectively to emergencies. Deployable Infectious Disease Treatment Capability In October 2014, national policymakers were faced with the prospect of a widespread Ebola outbreak in the United States after two Dallas nurses contracted the disease while treating Thomas Duncan. Worst-case scenarios based on the number of those potentially exposed caring for Duncan and their contacts suggested authorities might have to treat over 100 cases of Ebola simultaneously. This led the White House to ask DoD to be prepared to deploy mobile medical facilities to an airport hanger in Dallas and to train enough military personnel to provide treatment should local health authorities refuse to admit Ebola patients to healthcare facilities. DoD eventually trained two “Mobile Medical Teams” of 30 people. Thankfully, the disease did not spread further within the United States during the treatment of other Ebola positive patients. However, had the situation ended differently, it may have been necessary for the federal government to play a larger role in the treatment of Ebola patients. Policymakers should examine whether and how the Federal government should develop a deployable infectious disease treatment capability to respond to future infectious disease cases in the United States and under what circumstances such a capability can and should be deployed. There are multiple pathways to building deployable capabilities for domestic response that policymakers should consider. First, HHS’s National Disaster Medical System (NDMS) could in 39 theory yield 6,000 deployable medical experts. Second, strengthening the ability of the U.S. Public Health Service to deploy more rapidly to treat infectious diseases in the U.S. and abroad is another avenue. Third, the Department of Defense has important infectious disease capabilities and has already considered whether to maintain trained DoD teams in each FEMA region and whether to keep active the two mobile medical teams originally trained for Dallas. Finally, the Veterans Administration has a potential role to play in emergencies, but the circumstances in which it can turn on its “fifth mission” of emergency health response are unclear. Which of these avenues to pursue is an open policy question. Hazardous Waste Hazardous waste is another area identified by the NSC and by lessons learned teams in which significant work remains. Among the warning signs from the Ebola response: had New York City had to treat a second Ebola case concurrently, it would not have had the capacity to dispose of the waste. The reticence of state and local officials to permit transit and uncertainties about appropriate standards meant one state put itself in a procedural position of not being able to accept the hazardous waste it generated. The decision by elected officials to ban transport of Ebola waste across their municipalities based on political calculations placed a premium on ensuring that the Federal government publicized the science behind safe waste disposal. The NSC is working with Federal agencies as well as state and industry officials to forge a way ahead. The current approach is to develop industry guidance for best practices in order to provide state officials a standard on which to base action. Follow through will be essential to ensure the system can respond more agilely, and responsibly, in the future. It is important to note that, while we have learned a lot over the course of the response, many of the adaptations that worked for Ebola will not be applicable in the future. Certain measures, like the revised PPE guidance, may not apply to infectious disease outbreaks with other modes of transmission (e.g. aerosol transmission). Rapidly being able to develop PPE guidance, with quicker coordinated action between communities of experts, including the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health and the Occupational Health and Safety Administration, will be important. Likewise, while the domestic response in most respects was a policy success, it’s also true that the overall number of Ebola cases treated in the U.S. was small. The system was not tested in the way the international response was. It is easy to see places where a more widespread outbreak would have significantly stressed parts of the domestic health system and potentially caused parts of it to collapse. In addition, the more transmissible the disease, the less our approaches to Ebola are appropriate. Transmissibility and clinical severity are the axes that will drive the nature of any future response. The challenge is to be ready to act across the full spectrum. Is the Strategy Working? November, 2014 was a month of uncertainty and reassessment in the international response. In September, 2014 the CDC’s Modeling Task Force, a component of the CDC Ebola Incident Command, publically issued alarming predications that the eventual caseload might grow as high as 1.4 million by the end of the year, absent additional intervention. Though CDC Director Frieden was careful to caveat the model’s assumptions, “the CDC models really drove policy,” 40 one USAID official said. “They made us focus only on ETU beds,” something the media later seized on as a perceived example of mismanagement in the response. White House policy makers, against the advice of some staff on the Ebola Task Force, placed an intense focus on treatment beds, among many other output metrics such as delivery of PPE, number of burial teams, number of health care providers, and time required to collect and test a blood sample. Yet come late October caseload data in Liberia appeared against all odds to be dropping precipitously before a single ETU constructed by the U.S. military was open for treatment. While some ETUs built by USAID funded NGOs had opened, the epidemic was not unfolding as expected. The new data forced planners to examine their assumptions. If we don’t understand the factors behind the caseload drop, how do we know our strategy is optimal, officials asked? The strategy of the response was based in large measure on the standard medical narrative for Ebola. From the first documented outbreak in 1976, epidemiologists successfully broke the infection chain by placing the sick in isolation, tracing their contacts, and safely burying the dead. The theory of the U.S. response was to use this approach on a grand scale, with some modification. The logic of the response was largely built around a single number–70%. Characterizing the predominant thinking at the time, modelers generated a scenario that indicated successfully removing 70 percent of patients from the transmission chain, through patient treatment in ETUs and safe burials, would cause the epidemic to abate. Together, the predominant thinking about response methodology and the CDC model created an operational goal for the response. Many early U.S. government metrics tracked our progress towards reaching 70%. The unexpected drop in the Liberian infection rate showcases how community behavior changes and safe burial practices, in addition to patient isolation and contract tracing, appears to be a more potent causal factor in breaking the chains of transmission than appreciated initially. It was the Liberian people, by taking matters into their own hands and changing how they interacted with each other and with people who fell sick in their own communities, who appear to have broken the back of the epidemic. Taking a step beyond even Sierra Leone and Guinea, Liberia instituted a mandatory policy of cremation in early August, 2014 as a means of body disposal for Ebola victims, upsetting traditional burial practices but in so doing forcing social compliance with safe burial. Though the policy was later rescinded after community resistance and fear, a significant number of Ebola victims in Monrovia were ultimately cremated at a government run facility. USAID’s fast mobilization of partners to support safe burial practices was a significant success. The impact of community behavior changes, such as safe burials and social distancing, indicates the need to develop data collection strategies, metrics, and analytical approaches that will assess the status and changes of these important components of transmission in the future. This will require investment in basic and applied research to assess appropriate data collection strategies, metrics, and analytical approaches. As one noted Ebola expert told White House officials, “this one changed all the rules.” The estimated transmission potential of Ebola, as estimated by R0, or ‘R naught’, began declining in Liberia the week of the U.S. announced intervention. In the words of one expert, “fear stopped Ebola.” A statistician working in the response, in hindsight, saw the same phenomena in the data. “It was very clear by the end of October that the epidemic would never explode. This was 41 very hard to communicate to international policy makers,” he said. NSC staff were aware of the new data showing the pronounced decline in transmission in Liberia, but were uncertain they could trust it. They also knew the trends were different in Sierra Leone and Guinea, and were concerned a resurgence was possible as had happened just a few months before. The consensus position was to continue with a modified build out of the original response plan given the lack of confidence in epi data. As one NSC Ebola Task Force member noted, “We were managing risk. Even if you put a 90% confidence interval around the data, we needed to plan for the 10% risk.” The observation that community behavior change is crucially important alongside patient isolation, treatment, and safe burial is an insight that has important implications for future outbreaks. It is much easier to scale social mobilization interventions than treatment interventions, provided social drivers of change can be identified and leveraged. It therefore will be important to widely deploy social mobilization campaigns alongside the provision of clinical care in order to breed confidence between communities and responders going forward. Social mobilization will be even more essential in an epidemic in which we are not prepared to rapidly field therapeutics and vaccines. DHS officials have noted the importance of social mobilization was also highlighted by after-action reviews of the U.S. government responses to H1N1 and pandemic flu. It is interesting to note that what happened in some communities during the Ebola outbreak replicated itself in South Korea during the June, 2015 MERS outbreak. When it became clear the South Korean government had not effectively contained MERS, some officials in local municipalities unilaterally deployed security forces with heat-detecting cameras at train stations to stop those with fever from entering their communities. This is the kind of powerful behavior change that future epidemic responses will have to anticipate and harness. Medical and cultural anthropologists and communication experts should thus always be among the very first to be pushed forward into the field. The consequence of behavior change so quickly reducing transmission is that ETU capacity was overbuilt in some communities in Liberia. It is unfair to equate this fortuitous development with mismanagement or lack of strategy. Mobilization in any crisis is inevitably untidy and incremental, especially in epidemics, which themselves are notoriously unruly to manage. Policymakers on the NSC staff could not predict and be sure how Ebola was spreading based on early indicators and did not have full confidence in the data that was being reported up. It was also entirely plausible to estimate that for every reported case, there were a substantial number of cases that went unreported, making it difficult to determine whether the initial decline in cases was real. The decision to go on building out ETU capacity in an adapted modular format was rooted in part on the need for “insurance” in case the data showing caseload drops did not reflect the actual state of the epidemic and in part because nearly 80% of the spend on ETU construction had already occurred. Construction could be completed for a very modest remainder of the overall investment, essentially making completing the build-out of ETUs an inexpensive form of insurance. Furthermore, policymakers were hearing reports about the building of ETUs generating hope in communities, a much less quantifiable but still critical indicator. Without an option for quality treatment, community behavior change could have also taken a darker turn – 42 leaving peopled shunned and isolated, left to die alone, thereby further fueling transmission. Stopping ETU construction would have sent the wrong signal to the population. Even though ETU build out in Liberia was not as decisive as at first imagined as a causal factor stopping transmission, many other effects of the U.S. mobilization were centrally supportive of the efforts that do appear to have done the most to lower infection rates. The rapid expeditionary basing, logistics bridge, transportation capabilities, lab deployment, and command and control and synchronization functionality brought by the military helped usher in a far more robust response and bring more international health workers into ETUs and onto social mobilization teams. Survey of responders done by USAID showed anecdotally that the stand-up of the Monrovia Medical Unit (MMU) bolstered confidence, drawing more international and local heath workers than would have otherwise come. Finally, the very fact of the large-scale deployment instilled confidence in the Liberian population. “If we did anything,” one DoD official said, “we brought hope to the country and infrastructure so Liberia and others could come in and do their work.” Models and Decision Support By December, the original 1.4 million case prediction of the CDC modeling group, which many did not realize had been predicated upon the response not being scaled up, was seen as so off the mark that news media began dissecting the modeling approach used by CDC and its assumptions. Several major newspapers ran features on the state of disease propagation modeling, and modelers themselves discussed their struggle with the over-aggregation of data and lags in case confirmation. The discrepancy between early predictions and the ongoing outbreak led many policymakers to essentially discard the relevance of the modeling community to inform operational decisions during the response. Among U.S. government departments and agencies, the CDC modeling controversy also triggered a debate about the sharing of caseload data. In the very early phases of the response, CDC representatives negotiated a data sharing arrangement with the Liberian Ministry of Health that gave CDC access to detailed case data of Liberian citizens. As part of the terms of this agreement, CDC consented to not further share this data with other parts of the U.S. government. This effectively cut off communities of disease modelers in the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and other parts of HHS, which in many respects have more substantial analytical capabilities, from data available to CDC. In what remains a point of contention to this day, other parts of the interagency maintain that CDC did not have the authority to negotiate an agreement with the government of Liberia that shut them out of access to data. A related issue is the need for models to be more predictive and for policymakers to better understand their limitations. Input from the CDC Modeling Task Force, in the opinion of some, drove bad decisions in the early formation of U.S. strategy for the response, even as their dire forecasts played a catalytic role motivating action. As such, there is a need for models to be predictive, but also to characterize uncertainties and limitations for policymakers. OSTP is now examining how infectious disease forecasting and analytics can be more systematically developed, generated, communicated, and iterated during an outbreak response. A working group within the National Science & Technology Council is drafting a strategy for improving the national capabilities for epidemic analytics and forecasting. A modeling group at the Department of Health and Human Services in the Biomedical Advanced Research and 43 Development Authority (BARDA) may provide a useful interagency touch point to integrate community wide assessment during future health events. In a future outbreak the policy aspiration should be to combine coordinated modeling in human health with modeling from environmental, animal health, and commerce flows. Therapeutics & Vaccines Throughout the response, there was always the hope that therapies and vaccines would arrive in time to help treat patients and speed the end of the epidemic. Despite over twenty years of work on filoviruses, there were no licensed vaccines or approved therapeutics to treat individuals infected with Ebola at the outset of the epidemic. Many factors have impeded the development of medical countermeasures for Ebola, including: a lack of understanding of the natural reservoir and its mechanism of transmission to humans; the use of different viral strains in different laboratory studies and different species of non-human primates in non-clinical studies; the necessity to perform non-clinical evaluation of potential medical counter-measures in biosafety containment level four (BSL-4) labs; and the need to evaluate candidate products in non-human primates. Most experimental vaccines or drugs, including ZMapp, had been produced only in extremely small quantities for use in animal testing. Their safety and efficacy in Ebola patients was unknown, and was administered only with a “compassionate use” wavier granted by the Food & Drug Administration. HHS’ Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasure Enterprise (PHEMCE) became the interagency body to coordinate government efforts. By late November 2014, the US had multiple Ebola vaccine and therapeutic candidates in early stage development and being manufactured at pilot scale for evaluation in non-clinical and clinical studies. By early January 2015, with cases of Ebola declining in West Africa, it became important for the U.S. government as a whole to look at the research questions that remain to be addressed and determine a priority order and a strategy for addressing the clinical trials aimed at Ebola prevention or treatment. NIH proposed randomized clinical trials with ZMapp as the primary candidate and potentially move to TKM or favipiravir as secondary and tertiary candidates. On February 27, 2015, in partnership with the Liberian government, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) launched a clinical trial to obtain safety and efficacy data on the investigational drug ZMapp as a treatment for Ebola. The study continues to be conducted in Liberia and the United States, is a randomized controlled trial enrolling adults and children with known Ebola virus infection. The United States government also expedited the safety and efficacy trials of several Ebola vaccine candidates in humans and made two vaccine candidates available under compassionate care exemption. Altogether, it supported the development of five Ebola vaccine candidates in various stages of development. Two vaccine candidates - cAd3 and rVSV- have completed Phase I human clinical trials. On February 2, 2015, the USG announced the Phase II/III Ebola vaccine study in Liberia known as PREVAIL opened at Redemption Hospital in Monrovia evaluating a single injection of either of two candidate Ebola vaccines— ChAd3-EBO-Z, made by GlaxoSmithKline, or VSV-ZEBOV, made by NewLink Genetics/Merck—versus a saltwater placebo injection. 44 On March 26, 2015, the USG announced the Phase II/III Ebola vaccine study in Liberia known as PREVAIL (Partnership for Research on Ebola Vaccines in Liberia) achieved and exceeded its initial goal of enrolling 600 people into its Phase II component. The next (Phase III) component of the study planned to enroll about 27,000 Liberians at risk of Ebola virus infection. However, as a result of Liberia’s successful infection control and prevention strategy targeting Ebola, there has been only a handful of new case in the country since February. Together with the DSMB, the PREVAIL leaders, the Liberian co-principal investigators, and the NIH—decided that it was not scientifically appropriate to complete the 27,000 person phase III component of the trial. To secure data on safety, they extended the phase II component to 900 additional volunteers to give a total of 1500. The Center for Disease Control also organized combined phase II and III trial of VSV-ZEBOV in Sierra Leone, known as STRIVE, that has enrolled over 7,500 participants. Vaccine Indemnification and Liability Issues Medical countermeasure manufacturers have at times found that, under ordinary tort law and liability models, developing, manufacturing, and deploying a product presents substantially greater economic risk than the potential economic gain from the sale of the product. Therefore, in cases where the national security and public health interests are sufficiently high, liability protections have been considered to reduce risk for manufacturers, as was the case for the worldwide deployment of the H1N1 Influenza vaccine. In the US and several countries around the world, this liability protection is sometimes accompanied by a “no fault” mechanism to compensate those are determined to have been injured as result of the administration or use of medical countermeasures. The Ebola outbreak raised similar issues as manufacturers worked to develop Ebola vaccine candidates on an expedited basis. In response to global commitments to contain the epidemic in Africa, manufacturers accelerated the development of candidate Ebola vaccines. Compared to other traditional vaccines that may have years of safety data based on the administration of tens or hundreds of thousands of doses, the Ebola vaccine candidates are novel products for which manufacturers will have limited information, even after the clinical trials are completed. Based on these perceived increased risks, at least two major manufacturers of vaccine candidates against Ebola communicated to the US, UK, and multiple international organizations, their significant concern as to liability associated with the accelerated development, regulatory approval, and potential subsequent deployment and use of their Ebola vaccine candidates in West Africa. While the manufactures sought global indemnification, the focus of U.S. policy was on limiting liability and attempting to develop a corresponding compensation plan for those suffering adverse effects. On December 5, 2014, the NSC Deputies Committee agreed to support and explore options for limiting liability for Ebola vaccine makers and establishing vaccine injury compensation schemes that might be used in connection with a possible vaccination program for a successful Ebola vaccine candidate. The elements of this three-fold policy included the: (1) encouragement of enactment of Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness (PREP) Act-like regimes in other countries; (2) liability limiting arrangements or contracts for delivering/administering the vaccine; and (3) creation of a vaccine injury compensation fund. 45 NSC and HHS staff pushed all three elements of the strategy with the United Kingdom, WHO, and Gavi, the vaccine alliance. Upon further examination, it became clear that creating a vaccine injury compensation fund on behalf of the three affected countries posed logistical and legal challenges that could not easily be surmounted in the near term. Furthermore, WHO, Gavi’s, and the United Kingdom’s interested in pursuing a long term solution to the challenge of vaccine liability waned as the epidemic wound down. The U.S. policy for vaccine and therapeutic indemnification remains incomplete, but is nevertheless deserving of further policy exploration on account of its criticality to future outbreaks. 46 THE DRIVE TOWARD ZERO (January-June, 2015) By January, 2015 it was apparent that the epidemic was subsiding in all three affected counties. Tens of thousands would contract Ebola across West Africa and more than half of those infected would die, but following the massive U.S. and global response, nowhere near the worse-case of 1.4 million would fall victim. This late phase of the response was characterized by a lessening of intensity of transmission but a greater comparative difficulty in stopping transmission altogether. Beating Ebola grew harder with each day. As people let their guard down, it became easier to imagine a fever as being caused by malaria, not Ebola. By March, 2015 Liberia verged on reaching zero. With this heroic turnabout, DART and CDC began placing additional attention on health recovery and building health sector capacity to prevent future outbreaks from becoming epidemics. The donor community also began to focus on restoring economic growth. The big worry was that donors were writing checks to provide health services that cannot be sustained by government revenue alone. The calculus of sustainability thus became paramount, with growth of the Liberian economy needing to “catch” the costs of health sector improvements as Ebola funding sunsets. By May, 2015, the distribution of the virus and number of transmission chains in Guinea and Sierra Leone, while still unprecedented by the standards of earlier Ebola outbreaks, became more amenable to classic means of contact tracing and isolation than the urban clusters that predominated earlier in capital cities. Social mobilization in affected communities proved critical but difficult. The virus had largely retreated into rural communities that harbored the greatest levels of distrust of central authorities. “Getting to zero” in the words of the U.S. Ambassador to Guinea came down to “anthropology, anthropology, anthropology.” The response to Ebola in West Africa began without a playbook for how to win the trust of affected communities. Over time, principles for how to communicate with local populations emerged: identify trusted intermediaries to serve as communicators, tailor information to local context, and, most importantly, facilitate two-way communications. The “flying Imams program,” which transported trusted religious leaders by helicopter to speak with communities all over Guinea, is a shining success story of a finely tuned education effort. The way to think about social mobilization, in the words of one communications expert, is "building out the value chain of different networks: education, religious, health, media, elder/clan, business." "Think good development practice. Recruit from within. Demilitarize clothing. The messenger more important than the message." The most successful campaigns were often run by experienced implementing partners with a long history and large local staff in country. One of the most sophisticated social mobilization and contact tracing campaigns of the response took place in the Forecariah prefecture of Guinea in May, 2015. The goal of the campaign was to visit villages with recent clusters of Ebola until each member of all households is confirmed to be non-febrile. Unlike earlier informational campaigns in Forecariah, the goal of the 95 doorknocking teams armed with thermoflash “thermometer guns” was to refer anyone with fever to one of 30 doctors who after further triage can transport suspected cases to an ETU for evaluation. The entire prefecture of 240,000 was placed under soft quarantine for the 21-day campaign, necessitating food aid for residents. The WHO, CDC, DART, WPF, and other partners hired and 47 trained local door-knocking teams and arranged food and cash payment for households who complied with the household survey. Cash and food eased the intrusiveness of the campaign. Beating Ebola grew more difficult at this stage because the low density of cases incentivized behaviors that work against the response. The rarer the virus became, the less people and communities were willing to radically change their behavior, leading to the continued spread of the virus. Triage at local health care facilities became important as people failed to adhere to rigorous entry procedures. Small tents set outside health care facilities became vital places for screening patients who might have Ebola from those who do not. One of the last known cases of Ebola in Liberia was caught during triage at the very same place in Monrovia where so many health providers died the summer before. Redemption hospital redeemed itself when a CDCtrained triage nurse identified and safely isolated a female patient who turned out to be Ebola positive. By now implementing partners and NGOs had grown expert at training healthcare workers to safety work in ETUs. Sierra Leone’s National Ebola Training Center, run by the International Organization for Migration, and housed in the national stadium in Freetown, saw 7,000 Sierra Leonian healthcare workers pass through its gates. Practical training was now emphasized, including simulations in a mock ETU where students in full PPE treat “patient trainers” who themselves are actual Ebola survivors. No longer do trainees experience an ETU setting the first day they work at an ETU. This last phase also surfaced inherent difficulties in maintaining a high tempo response for so long. More than 3,000 CDC employees supported the response over its course, including 1,200 who deployed to West Africa. CDC and USAID continued to strengthen their expeditionary capability and grow ever more sophisticated in their approach, but it became harder to generate the number of experts with the right expertise to spend extended periods of time in country. In Guinea, where the infection seemed destined to simmer at a low level for months after the caseload dropped from peak levels, French-speaking epidemiologists were hard to recruit. Though CDC personnel earn overtime, post-differential does not kick in until 42 days. Since most rotations are only a month to six weeks, personnel are not eligible for the 30% increase or hazard pay. Supervisors and spouses in Atlanta grew reluctant to assent to third and fourth rotations. Despite high-level White House intervention by the NSC Ebola Coordinator, the Office of Personnel Management proved unable to respond to CDC management requests for greater flexibility and augmented hiring capability—a failure worth studying further. The CDC continued to adjust internal policies to help support those deploying to West Africa. It developed pre- and post- deployment programs, began to set a two-month target for the duration of deployment, and recruited a safety officer to help mitigate responders’ exposure to violence and social unrest. But the limitations on hiring and compensation were far from ideal. One question lurking in the back of the minds of CDC personnel was whether and under what conditions it would be necessary to move from asking for volunteers to assigning personnel during an emergency who had not explicitly volunteered for duty. “If someone had said we would have that many people out there for this long, I wouldn’t have believed them,” one CDC official said. “And we’ve done it safely.” 48 To strengthen its ability to deploy personnel, CDC has created a Global Rapid Response Team (GRRT) made up of Atlanta-based staff and five geographically dispersed units that function interchangeably as a single international team. The goal is for the teams to be deployable within 24-48 hours after a request and for the teams to scale to provide over 50 staff within seven days of activation. The teams are designed to function in an integrated manner with the DART. USAID experienced the same personnel stresses. More than half of its deployable staff activated on the Ebola response at a time when several other crises requiring DART deployments were unfolding simultaneously. Capacity was so stretched that at certain points in 2014 and 2015 OFDA’s standing and reserve capacity were essentially maxed out. Had another disaster or disease outbreak occurred, there would have been no one left to deploy. OFDA is relooking at staffing models, moving from the assumption that it will deploy three to five DARTs per year to a multiple response strategy that assumes three simultaneous deployments with one team held in reserve. To accomplish this OFDA is growing its reserve roster and also differentiating team models for fast onset natural disaster that typically require intense engagement for a two month period and longer complex technical responses like Ebola or Syria that could well run a year or more. Meanwhile, at the White House, NSC Ebola Coordinator Ron Klain returned to the private sector in mid-February, 2015, handing duties to Amy Pope, who also became the President’s Deputy Homeland Security Advisor. The State Department’s Ebola Coordination Unit (ECU) shut down shortly thereafter. Though the State Department based its shut down decision on an analysis of the epidemiology of the outbreak and the ability of bureaus to resume the residual workload, NSC staff noted an increase in coordinating challenges almost immediately after the ECU shut its doors. Though they had assented to its closing, NSC staff soon seconded guessed their decision, wishing the ECU had remained active for at least one additional month. The utility of having experienced crisis managers at State and USAID called back into action is a clear model for how to effectively run an emergency command and control structure. But each agency ran into their own challenges with the mechanism used to bring those managers in, raising the question of how best to augment staff during crises. Glimpses of the Future In this last phase of the response, glimpses of the tools of future interventions could be seen. A customized ETU data management system emerged from a partnership between Google.org and MSF. In “Project Buendia,” rechargeable tablets and a battery powered wifi network allowed an ETU to go paperless and automatically transmit all patient data electronically. The tablets themselves are encased in plastic that can be immersed in bleach to be completely disinfected. Inductive pads allow for charging without removing the case. Data entry is done with large buttons that are easy to use while in PPE. All data is synced to all tablets in the system so those outside the hot zone can track new patient observations instantly. Because the tablet buttons are far easier to press and see than the paper charts typically used to log patient vitals and administered medicines, the field trials of Project Buendia at an MSF ETU in Sierra Leone revealed doctors and nurses were able to record more data each time they check 49 on a patient. They could therefore see diagnostic clues emerge more quickly. These same doctors and nurses were able to work faster and see more patients each round in the hotzone. The tablets and wifi network are engineered to run for a week before needing to be charged. Patient data can be uploaded via satellite phone to a central database. NSC medical staff note such a system will help connect treatment units to each other to quickly share experience, knowledge, and best practices gained from clinical treatment, an aspect of the Ebola response that did not develop as quickly as hoped. Apps for contact tracing and for active monitoring of contacts also came into use. Because smartphones and tablets make it easy for contact tracers to capture more information about those they are interviewing, digital devices can help collect a broader array of data that in turn allows trends to be spotted earlier than paper forms. The paper forms most Ebola case investigators used do not collect the breadth of social data that reveal all routes of disease propaganda or differential diagnosis. There are other benefits of moving to digital platforms. CommCare, one of the Fighting Ebola Grand Challenge Winners, fielded an app in Guinea that geo-tags all data entered by contract-tracers. Supervisors can now see whether contact-tracers actually went to the contacts' neighborhoods or falsified the information by filling it out without going to meet the contacts. Geo-tagging the data enabled partners to define target locations for behavior change and education campaigns and allowed district managers to see trends in what makes contact tracing most effective. The states of Maryland and Texas, among others, similarly experimented with smartphone apps that allowed people under active monitoring for Ebola to report whether they were experiencing symptoms. Reporting on smart phones proved far less laborious than public health workers contacting people by phone twice daily, pointing to an approach that could scale in a future epidemic where the numbers of people under active monitoring or quarantine are larger. The OSTP-USAID grand challenge on PPE also catalyzed many important innovations that are already impacting the effectiveness and usability of PPE in the West African response and in modern clinical settings. Work on building better data systems also got underway. A data summit cohosted by USAID & WHO in Accra, Ghana, in May, 2015 included participants from 15 governments, as well as representatives from NGOs and the private sector. The idea is to build national health data systems that are more able to spot and contain an epidemic and better able to share data when an outbreak does occur. CDC, likewise, learned a great deal about the virus and its routes of transmission through virus persistence studies and a household transmission study. CDC also made significant strides developing rapid diagnostic technology. U.S. government agencies were also trying to develop better approaches and capacities themselves. The difficulty in negotiating the early data picture has led USAID to explore what role there may be in a future response for two distinct types of expertise. The first is a “data logistician.” The idea is to deploy select DARTs going forward with such data logisticians, who can figure out early what information will be critical to guide decision-making and how to distill that information from the various information systems in play. A second potential role that would selectively deploy is a “connectivity engineer.” This engineer would plot information flows and figure out how to free up bottlenecks and otherwise improve data flow. In June 2015 FEMA signed agreements with a handful of tech companies to provide volunteers to serve in a 50 'Tech Corps' that could be deployed when disaster strikes. Google, Microsoft, and Intel are all participating. ### 51 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The Ebola epidemic showcased substantial gaps of global preparedness and capacity in infectious disease response. The failure of the WHO to coordinate an effective response was belatedly recognized in the U.S. government, which then rapidly mobilized. Built into the U.S. government approach to the containment of infectious diseases abroad was the assumption of a level of capability and competence in the World Health Organization that turned out not to exist. U.S. policymakers at first assumed the WHO would lead the response in West Africa, then tried to reinforce the WHO as its leadership faltered, and only belatedly recognized that the WHO was incapable of mounting an effective operational response and that forceful U.S. leadership was needed to prevent a global catastrophe. Strengthening the WHO’s ability to perform the coordinating role it aspires to during global health emergencies must be a U.S. priority in the years ahead. The U.S. should also consider advocating that UN-OCHA be able to be mobilized under Chapter 6 of the U.N. Security Council, which would augment its ability to mobilize in a future epidemic. When the U.S. mobilized after the WHO failed to contain the epidemic, gaps in preparedness and capacity surfaced in every major agency tasked with health and security in the U.S. government. With no model for how the U.S. government should respond to an international health emergency and no obvious lead agency to coordinate the response, the concept of operations was worked out on the fly. It took time for USAID, CDC, and DoD to devise a civil-military theory of pandemic response and command and control structure to integrate their operations. Standing response doctrine did not contain well-defined strategies to build trust with local populations or rapidly assist civilian outreach to change behavioral practices. The Department of Defense lacked the capacity to medevac its own personnel if infected, did not have a deployable medical unit optimized for infectious disease treatment, and had no set protocols for operating in an environment with filovirus. Failures on the domestic front were even more apparent, and included fundamental misjudgments in the capacity of hospitals to treat Ebola and the steps local authorities would need to take in conjunction with Federal authorities in the event of an Ebola case in the U.S. While the response was ultimately able to arrest the epidemic abroad and keep the American population safe at home, it is easy to imagine a more stressful scenario would be far more disruptive. The very dynamics of globalization and population growth will lead to more pandemics, which must appropriately be considered among the most serious national security threats to our homeland. As noted in the National Security Strategy 2015, population growth, urbanization, deforestation, the expansion of agriculture, the bunching of species together in island ecosystems, global commerce flows, and an unsurpassed level of intercontinental air travel are creating the very conditions for the next dangerous pathogen to emerge. A strong scientific consensus exists that we will see more zoonotic pandemics and infectious disease outbreaks going forward. Given that a highly contagious virus has the potential to kill millions of Americans, and that even small outbreaks have significant consequences, our level of preparedness, and investment in the Global Health Security Agenda, should be substantially 52 increased. We are in effect underinvesting in pandemic preparedness as a national security threat. Merely maintaining the current scale of response activities as a standing capability is likely not sufficient. Ebola was in effect a test of the international response system. It is hard to catch and easy to test for. It cannot be transmitted from person to person until symptoms are present. It occurred in a region of the world with few mega-cities and minimal connectivity by air travel. Future epidemics, especially those that are airborne and transmissible before symptoms appear, are plausibly far more dangerous. The U.S. Government should inventory key “enabling capabilities”—to include PPE procurement and supply chain, medical logistics, critical reagents, and hazardous waste management—and ensure it is prepared to confront a wide range of emergency scenarios. An appropriate minimum planning benchmark might be an epidemic an order of magnitude or two more difficult than that presented by the outbreak of Ebola in West Africa, with much more significant domestic spread. To organize U.S. deployable capability, the NSC should establish an inventory of existing response capabilities in the interagency and consider creating a create a “lighter touch” international equivalent of the National Response Framework. Until biosurveillance capability is established in all countries and international response mechanisms are in place, countries with robust public health systems must maintain the capacity to assist less capable countries. While reform at the WHO and in other multilateral institutions is vital, the United States cannot afford to wait until deployable international capability comes online. The United States and willing partner nations should maintain an interim global response capability as a bridge to whatever investments are ultimately made at the international level. To organize our ability to response, the NSC should create an international framework for disaster response. A key part of the international framework will be codifying the “civil-military” doctrine for epidemic response developed for Ebola, but without DoD’s “redlines” and with a view towards different scenarios. The interagency division of labor in the Ebola response was effective and should be codified into a doctrine for epidemics with properties similar to Ebola, with the DART serving as the operational lead, CDC nested under the DART, and the U.S. military providing unique capabilities in support. The rapid expeditionary basing, logistics bridge, transportation capabilities, lab deployment, and command and control and synchronization functionality provided by the U.S. military helped dramatically accelerate the response. However, DoD’s redlines need to be re-evaluated, as they impose limitations on deploying relevant capabilities that may be necessary. At the same time, CDC must be better understood as a technical agency that provides advice and epidemiological assessment versus an operational agency that can itself coordinate a humanitarian response without substantial interagency support. A single person accountable to the President for response efforts is a model that works in extremis cases. Because epidemic responses draw from so many parts of the government and raise so many novel policy issues, naming a White House coordinator with clear lines of authority designated by the President proved an effective way to provide overall leadership for a response. It is clearly preferable for departments and agencies to provide leadership under the usual processes established in PPD-1. But as a last resort, if departments and agencies prove 53 unable to manage evolving circumstances or novel and unprecedented events, the White House Coordinator model, situated in the NSC framework, is one worth employing in the future. Funding mechanisms and triggers for mobilization short of a Stafford Act declaration need to be established. While we have made legislative and organizational advances in the Federal government to designate the HHS Assistant Secretary of Preparedness and Response (ASPR) a national leader for domestic preparedness, the Ebola outbreak demonstrated gaps in the Federal government’s ability to prepare both for international and domestic responses to infectious disease outbreaks. Greater preplanning is needed, especially since the resources that combat epidemics are widely distributed across the government. Similarly, funding mechanisms and clear triggers for involvement short of the declaration of a Stafford Act need to be established so resources can be mobilized short of a catastrophic event Global vaccine and therapeutic liability, medevac capability, and domestic hazardous waste disposal are issues that were raised but not solved by the Ebola response. Further policy work is needed to address each of them. The President should consider hosting an international conference on vaccine and therapeutic liability. Allies should be encouraged to establish their own medevac capability. Further work is needed at the state level on hazardous waste disposal. Because the military, humanitarian, and health first responders do not meet up frequently, exercising, table-tops, training, liaison officers, regular detailing of personnel, and senior management exchanges are needed, both within governments and at the international level. Health and non-health agencies had the most learning to do about each other and their respective capabilities during the Ebola response. More needs to be done to regularly bring them together. Regular exercising will also help prepare everyone for “black swan” events where no template for how to respond exists. The level of integration USAID, CDC, and DoD have now reached should be perpetuated and mechanisms should be established to facilitate joint planning, preparedness, and exercise programs. Setting who is in charge for planning and preparedness during the interludes between crises is imperative. Health and non-health agencies need a common language for situational awareness, a defined set of triggers for when to mobilize, the ability to deploy “light touch” interagency assessment teams to monitor events long before they become crises, and a single system of situational reports. The NSC should establish criteria to categorize the potential seriousness of a health event as a tool to facilitate situational awareness between personnel in health and nonhealth agencies. Important variables in this system of categorization include clinical severity and transmissibility, risk of global spread, threat to the homeland, and local institutional capacity. Likewise, health and non-health agencies should partner more frequently to deploy “mini-DART”-like assessment teams that report out to the relevant departments and agencies, so all Federal agencies potentially involved in a response have situational awareness of evolving events long before a major mobilization is required. Situational reporting should be integrated below the level of the White House to provide a unified view of developments. Greater study of population behavior change and social mobilization is needed. Some communities proved remarkably adept at lowering Ebola transmission rates before treatment beds became available or home health kits were distributed. Others reacted poorly to messaging 54 campaigns. Understanding the dynamics of social mobilization—what worked, what did not, and how campaigns can be made more effective going forward in difficult cultural contexts—is a crucial matter for the research community to explore. To that end, OSTP should work with NSF, NIH, and CDC to fund interdisciplinary research that would add to the existing literature on behavior change and better characterize and understand how to impact social behavior in health responses. The capability building analysis in the review of planning efforts for the 2005 pandemic flu and 2009 incidence of H1N1 are relevant to understanding how the U.S. government should enhance its ability to effect behavior change. The management of public perception and community behavior, both at home and abroad, together with anthropological expertise, is a fundamental part of any response. How and why “risk communications” failed in the US needs to be examined. The future role of cultural and medical anthropologists, and how to integrate them into the response from the get-go, needs to be further developed, with DART teams potentially considering how to develop a “social mobilization module” that could be deployed in a future response, not unlike USAID’s emerging notion of deploying “connectivity engineers” and “data logicians” as part of DARTs when needed. Establish mechanisms to harness better the potential contributions of the private sector, foundations, and the digital humanitarian community. The resources contributed by the Paul G. Allen, CDC, and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundations to the Ebola response are far larger in aggregate than those given by many traditional allies and partners. The foundation community has essentially “gone operational.” Large communities of “digital humanitarians”—coders, mappers, data scientists—stand ready to assist first responders. These are each resources the US government must better integrate into future responses by maturing its liaison activities with the private sector and foundations. Similarly, multi-donor coordination was a challenge at the international level, leading to the need for more work in this area by the WHO and UN. Critical care and evacuation capability for health care workers is essential. Creating an “enabling environment” for first responders is critical. Giving those who volunteer to care for others the certainty that they will be provided the highest level of care if they fall ill, and will have health and travel insurance as part of their contracts, and appropriate indemnification for contractors, is essential to attracting the labor force in any future response. Investments made in air evacuation capability must continue so this vital mission can be restarted at a moment’s notice. Similarly, we must maintain the ability to quickly deploy and staff advanced field hospitals dedicated to treating health care workers. In a domestic outbreak capacity for transporting infected members of the general public may also be needed, raising the question of whether private air medical vendors, who elected not to build out Ebola transport capability, would be willing to provide services in a domestic response. Lessons in “Response Science” need to be further distilled. Capturing and sharing lessons in clinical care and long term survivor care will be important when dealing with any novel pathogen whose properties are not well understood. Just as the electrolyte disruptions caused by Ebola and its persistence in immunologically privileged parts of the body were a surprise to medical researchers, so too will there be other clinical surprises in future epidemics that will need to be identified and mitigated. 55 Technology is a key part of enhancing effectiveness in the response, but epidemics move too fast to try out good ideas in the field. Spurred on by “grand challenges” sponsored by USAID and OSTP, significant advances occurred in PPE, diagnostics, patient monitoring, contact tracing data collection, and analysis. However, very few of these significant advances progressed beyond the field trial stage before the epidemic subsided, suggesting that the identification of needs and the research and development to address them must occur well before the onset of crisis and then be very rapidly trialed across outbreaks and emergencies. CDC, in partnership with OSTP, should review strategies and objectives to maximize future deployable innovations based on the incredible outpouring of innovation during the Ebola epidemic. Management of the risk of exportation and importation of a disease by international travelers is essential. The combination of exit screening at the point of origin and arrival screening with active monitoring in the United States helped manage the risk of Ebola spread without disrupting the international travel system. However this may not be scalable for other pathogens, or in other locations. In future international public health emergencies, policymakers will need to consider how best to manage the risks associated with travel and be prepared to counter the politically expedient call for travel plans. Better data systems and indicators are one of the biggest ways to improve pandemic responses. Current barriers to data collection, reporting, and information sharing, along with the inherent difficulty of modeling trends in population behavior, limit the use of predictive tools and data systems as decision aids for policymakers. Nevertheless, it is entirely within the realm of possibility to design national health data and biosurveillence systems that can in emergencies share relevant data with all responding organizations and agencies. Digital systems should be designed to high, low, and no-tech areas, and, if properly designed and implemented, will help responders more quickly establish a feedback loop between information collection and assistance delivery. Workforce development and capacity building are crucial to strengthening data systems. Global humanitarian response capabilities are stretched to their limits and need additional capacity to handle the “new norm” of multiple crises. 2014 became the first year in which international humanitarian responders faced four of the most serious “level 3” events simultaneously -- Syria, Iraq, South Sudan, and Yemen -- while also dealing with the Nepal earthquake and Ebola. OFDA at one point had four DART teams in the field, some of which had multiple country teams, which made it difficult to consistently staff them and the Washingtonbased RMT. The same stress on government assets trickled down to the contractors who support them. Experienced field managers working for implementing partners mounting Ebola eradication campaigns in Guinea were suddenly redirected to Nepal to manage the earthquake response. Aggregate humanitarian response capability needs to be right-sized for the “new normal” of humanitarian emergencies, with OFDA re-examining its footprint and number of trained staff ready for deployment. Stopping an outbreak at the source before it becomes an epidemic is crucial. Even during the push to zero in West Africa, the United States was pressing forward with the Global Health Security Agenda, which aims to build strong, sustainable systems for preventing, detecting, and 56 rapidly responding to outbreaks of infectious disease. The move to develop common global targets by which to measure capacity to prevent epidemics like Ebola is imperative. The countries of the GHSA have now developed such a global assessment tool and common targets. These should be rapidly used and adopted by the WHO and other global entities focused on preventing epidemic threats to develop baselines, 5-year plans, and to synchronize investment. 57 AGENCY REFORMS UNDERWAY & REFORMS SUGGESTED BY LESSONS LEARNED STUDIES Reforms and activities underway un-italicized Issues for Principals and Deputy Consideration in italics. National Security Council . • NSC is working on a draft Domestic Incident Response PPD, which will provide for the designation of a lead Federal agency during incidents that are not covered under the Stafford Act, require the designation of a senior response official to lead the Federal government’s response efforts, and provide a mechanism for DHS/FEMA to provide incident management support to the lead Federal agency • NSC is developing clearer internal procedures and interagency crisis management mechanisms • Ongoing work streams on GHSA, WHO reform, Ebola recovery, hazardous waste, and decontamination standards and regulations. • NSC is developing an international response rubric to tier and categorize options across epidemiology, political, and humanitarian risk factors and will stand up an epidemic threat cell in the interagency to advise on these matters before and during crises and to regularly conduct exercises to prepare for future response. The rubric will include a common categorization of health event severity and triggers for mobilization. • Clarify (perhaps through a PPD) agency and department roles in pandemic response plans beyond that specified in the Biological Incident Annex of the National Response Framework. • Develop PPD requiring implementation of an international response framework that mirrors the National Response Framework including identification of ESFs and ESF lead agencies. • Work with agencies to develop a national-level, contagious biological outbreak plan for domestic and international response that identifies expected levels of performance and capability requirements and provides standards for assessing needed capabilities. USAID • OFDA is developing an operational response framework that streamlines and codifies how OFDA will engage, coordinate, and support other interagency capabilities in major responses. • OFDA is expanding existing staffing capabilities and the pool of trained responders through a Multiple Response Strategy. The MRS staffing pattern will ensure OFDA has adequate depth to fully manage multiple simultaneous L3 responses around the world. 58 • • • • • • • • OFDA is expanding collaboration and engagement with CDC into a broader partnership, enhancing its infectious disease response capacity, and evaluating the triggers for when an epidemic response overseas rises to the level of a disaster declaration. OFDA is hiring a “Private Sector and Diaspora Advisor” to preplan coordination with foundations and private sector donors. The Global Development Lab and OFDA commit to work together to establish greater understanding and collaboration on applying data and technology support to future humanitarian operations. The USAID Global Health Bureau and OFDA are developing a joint pandemic preparedness effort to build local capacity and develop standing implementing mechanisms that can be rolled out quickly in the event of a health related emergency. Funding bush meat and animal vector studies and mitigation programs. Consider initiating senior Management exchanges with CDC Consider institutional changes within the UN, similar to the WHO reform efforts underway. Clearly communicate the successes and failures of the UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER) and the Ebola field coordination model and the failure to use the existing international humanitarian architecture model. Department of Defense • DoD is in the process of drafting a DoD Instruction on Global Health Engagement to provide policy guidance to the Department. • DoD is establishing a DoD Global Health Engagement Council which will be used to coordinate the Department’s Global Health Engagement activities and increase visibility of DoD assets and capabilities. • DoD is conducting a capabilities based assessment of requirements to operate in environments impacted by Pandemic Influenza or Infectious Disease including movement policies. • DoD is conducting all-hazards disaster preparedness training in West Africa to bolster national emergency preparedness systems. • Joint Staff Surgeon General elevated to become a direct report to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff as of July 1, 2015. • Develop language for DoD’s Guidance for the Employment of the Force that highlight phase zero health engagement by COCOMS. • DoD is evaluating long-term overseas laboratory support programs in order to balance ongoing support to West African Ebola countries and enduring Cooperative Threat Reduction mission priorities. • Evaluate biosurveillance capabilities and programs within DoD and explore how best to leverage capabilities in support of USG biosurveillance efforts. Department of State • Formalize pandemic crisis management mechanisms and the criteria and decision process Department leadership would use to determine what mechanism was appropriate for a particular threat level. 59 • • • • • • • • • State is studying how to ensure medevac capability persists in the future from all regions. MED has assessed all posts with an Infectious Disease Threat Readiness Survey and established a tiered system. In the event of a novel infectious threat at a post this provides immediate information to MED about local ability to care for Americans at post or need for Medevac. MED is in the process of upgrading the Personal Protective Equipment for handling of infectious threats in Health Units and providing training on its use to HU staff worldwide. Consular Affairs is incorporating lessons learned into the FAM for the Consular Information Program, Pandemic Medical Evacuation, Visa Screening, and Consular crisis staffing standard operating procedures. The International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) is undertaking a study of the international security and foreign policy implications of significant overseas disease outbreaks. Designate a senior official to coordinate State’s pandemic preparedness (including institutionalizing lessons learned from the Ebola and other recent pandemics) and State’s participation in the Global Health Security Agenda. Conduct after-action reviews at each affected post and regionally (to examine lessons for, e.g., interagency coordination in country, the ICASS management platform, policy decisions affecting the safety and security of embassy personnel, including LES staff) and with each bureau in HQ with one or more core functions during the crisis Clarify State Department authorities and responsibilities (internally and vis-à-vis other USG actors) to coordinate with the private sector in advance of and during a pandemic. Develop technology solutions to facilitate State’s role as resource mobilization and outreach coordinator. Health & Human Services//Centers for Disease Control • Examining approaches to developing and maintaining an appropriately sized emergency response fund • Clarifying and codifying internal HHS crisis management processes for coordination of emergency responses that originate outside of the United States, but which have either domestic implications or necessitate the international mobilization of HHS resources to an exceptional degree. • With NSC and FEMA, codifying concepts of Lead Federal Agency for responses that fall below the threshold of a Stafford Act response, declaration by the Secretary of a public health emergency, or Presidential declaration of a national emergency, and for requesting infrastructure or other support from FEMA as needed • CDC is reviewing its approach to incident command, and has implemented plans to train a cadre of subject matter experts in incident command • Working with GSA to ensure federal facilities are always available to isolate and quarantine individuals as needed • Completing end-to-end planning for movement of highly infectious patients, both from overseas and within the US 60 • • • • • • • • • • • Ensuring there is a coordinated mechanism for prioritized, coordinated purchase of PPE or other materiel in short supply, both across USG and HHS CDC is broadly reviewing its modeling to better inform management, understanding and communication of the impact of operational decisions on the outcome of the response Strengthening approaches to risk communication Strengthening administrative preparedness for emergency deployments, including hiring actions, procurement capabilities, how to transition administrative and fiscal systems to emergency states, and the safety health, and security of deployed personnel. CDC has largely established but is refining pre- and post- deployment procedures to streamline overall, better match deployer skills and abilities with dynamic mission requirements, and ensure that a comprehensive health and medical framework exists for large, international deployments where Embassy capacity is limited. Facilitating the work of HHS health attaches as well as OGA Washington staff to communicate with international counterparts in partner ministries of health as well as across sectors and agencies (within USG and with partner nations), to support an international response at the diplomatic and strategic level Developing requirements and strengthening processes for more rapid deployment of staff internationally, including determining how many staff are needed for what types of future deployments, pre-identifying personnel, and ensuring they have required passports and immunizations. Stood up a tiered system of hospitals to assess and care for Ebola patients, including one hospital in each of ten HHS regions that will care for Ebola and other high pathogen diseases in the future. Operationalized a National Ebola Training and Education Center to further develop and train participants in this network as well as in 45 other state designated Ebola assessment or treatment centers. Continuing support for development of vaccines and therapies for Ebola, including a planned trial comparing immunogenicity of vaccines furthest along in the development pipeline. This new trial will be being conducted in collaboration with researchers and governments in the 3 affected countries. Further developing warm-based capability for use of platform technologies for rapid development of countermeasures for the next disease, e.g. monoclonal antibodies Conducting a comprehensive study of the health of Ebola survivors in West Africa and supporting service provision to Ebola survivors in West Africa. Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA) Implementation: GHSA plans are complete and implementation is underway in almost all of the 17 Phase 1 countries. The U.S. Government recently announced the final 13 Phase 2 countries toward our 30-country commitment. CDC has made progress in distribution of GHSA resources to host countries and partners; placement of CDC staff in the field for day-to-day support of implementation; and initiation of GHSA activities across all GHSA objectives and targets. Five countries (Peru, Portugal, Georgia, Uganda, and the United Kingdom) 61 • • • completed the GHSA independent assessments; additional countries, including the United States, are committed to completing the assessment in 2016. As part of CDC’s efforts to support Global Health Security priorities, CDC is increasing the agency’s international emergency response capacity by establishing a Global Rapid Response Team (Global RRT) to ensure that CDC can immediately respond in global health security threats with a trained, connected and sustainable workforce. The Global RRT will provide dedicated personnel and resources to CIOs to support international emergency response, including outbreak response. Expansion of CDC global staff: CDC has hired staff in 11 of the 17 GHSA Phase 1 countries to support GHSA implementation. 6 staff (Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Indonesia, Liberia, and Sierra Leone) were hired as CDC Country Directors and will serve a dual role as the GHSA program lead. 5 staff (Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Senegal/Guinea Bissau, and Tanzania were hired as GHSA program leads. CDC is employing 11 recently selected temporary (2-year) epidemiology field assignees (TEFAs) to enhance nationwide preparedness activities for Ebola and similar disease risks. TEFAs are assigned to state or local health departments but can work regionally, nationally, or internationally based on need. Department of Homeland Security • • • • • • • • • DHS is drafting a comprehensive Ebola after action review that will document lessons learned that should be integrated into future emerging infectious disease planning. The DHS Office of Health Affairs is reviewing its Decision Support Cell (DSC) and other operational activities to determine necessary improvements and additional resources required for improved response and coordination in future emerging infectious disease events. The United States Coast Guard (USCG) is revising its CBRN training and exercise requirements for the use of PPE. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and CDC are working to conclude a MOU on information sharing regarding travelers suspected of exposure to infectious disease. CBP has implemented data collection review practices to improve enhanced Ebola screening reporting thoroughness and oversight. FEMA is working with interagency partners to update the Biological Incident Annex to the Response and Recovery Federal Interagency Operational Plans (FIOPs). NBIC established a liaison at CBP to access travel data and assess travel patterns. In addition, NBIC has recently evaluated and acquired commercial private sector travel data. Both data sources will assist NBIC in understanding translocation risk of emerging infectious diseases. NBIC is supporting an Office of Science & Technology Policy effort to improve infectious disease forecasting capabilities to provide decision-makers with better anticipatory analysis. NBIC is currently working with Department of Veterans Affairs on a proof of concept to demonstrate interagency data sharing and integration to support biosurveillance information needs. If successful, NBIC plans to leverage its efforts with VA, as a model for integrating data from other agencies. 62 APPENDIX A Timeline December 2013 December 6 A boy dies of Ebola in Meliandou, Guinea, now suspected as the index case. February 2014 February 13 Unrelated to the epidemic, which was then unknown, President Obama launches the Global Health Security Agenda. March 2014 March 21 March 23 March 24 March 27 March 31 Pasteur Institute confirms Ebola in blood sample collected in Guinea by MSF WHO announces Ebola Outbreak National Security Advisor and President notified of Ebola outbreak in Guinea. WHO makes an initial funding appeal for $4.8 million First cases are confirmed in Liberia. The CDC sends a five-person team to Guinea to assist the Ministry of Health and the WHO. April 2014 Early April April 30 NSC Staff sends the President a memo on the outbreak DoD dispatches staff from US AMRIID to assist LIBR in performing Ebola tests. WHO reports a total of 239 cases and 106 deaths in Guinea and Liberia. May 2014 May 10 Mid-May May 17 May 25 Ministry of Health of Guinea reports 233 suspect and confirmed cases of Ebola, CDC anticipates pulling team out within a month President asks G-7 countries to join the Global Health Security Agenda WHO notified that Ebola was found in Sierra Leone. June 2014 June 14 June 20 June 21 June 23 June 27 CDC deploys five person team to Conakry and focuses on reestablishing systematic reporting in all three counties. [confirm] The first US interagency meeting concerning Ebola occurs on June 20. MSF publicly states “epidemic out of control” NSC consults with CDC and USAID about state of outbreak NSC hosts interagency call to assess current status of outbreak, address support to response, and identify further capabilities. US contributions exceed $3 million. 63 June 30 June 30 Late June NSC staff speaks for the first time directly with MSF Memo on Ebola and MERS sent to POTUS MSF determines virus spreading in over 60 locations in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. July 2014 July 2-3 July 9 July 10 July 11 July 15 July 17 July 22 July 23 Late July July 25 July 28 July 29 July 30 July 31 WHO Regional Office for Africa convenes emergency ministerial in Accra. 779 cases reported to date across region. Ebola Strategy interagency meetings (sub-IPCs), coordinating by NSC, begin bringing together USAID, State, CDC, and HHS to discuss U.S. support in light of recommendation emerging from Accra WHO meeting. HHS leads process to coordinate support for WHO appeal. CDC stands up its Emergency Operations Center for Ebola NSC staff flag for NSC leadership the lack of a macro picture of USG is going for the response. NSC asks CDC with its EOC to propose a framework for the interagency response CDC director Tom Frieden proposes expanding CDC/HHS leadership, but State and USAID resist proposal WHO reports total cases have exceeded 1,000. NSC hosts IPC to finalize framework for interagency coordination and division of labor. CDC representative in Sierra Leone files situation report documenting a severe crisis on the ground, Kent Bradley confirmed as Ebola positive. NSC begins holding near daily IPC meetings led by Gayle Smith First case from Ebola in Nigeria Liberia declares emergency, shuts borders and schools. White House Ebola Task Force beings daily internal meetings & IPC-level calls USAID approaches NSC with idea of deploying DART Team High level CDC-NSC consultation on direction of epidemic 20 CDC staff in region. NSC recalls CDC Director Tom Freidan from personal leave to help manage response WHO declared “Level 3” emergency NSC Deputies Committee meets, recommends CDC to surge and focuses on domestic preparedness. Agencies asked to “lean forward.” Staff call following explores DART deployment. August 2014 August 1 August 2 The WHO along with the presidents of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia announce a response plan with funding needs of $71 million. NSC Senior Director Gayle Smith meets with DoD’s Michael Lumpkin, CDC’s Tom Frieden, and USAID’s Nancy Lindborg to determine way ahead 64 August 3 August 4 August 5 August 6 August 7 August 8 August 11 August 14 August 18 August 21 August 26 August 29 Late August The first American patient with Ebola arrives in the United States. NSC Deputies Small Group meets and agrees USAID should deploy an interagency DART Ambassador to Liberia Deborah Malac declares a disaster in Liberia USAID activates a Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) and has personnel in Liberia that same day NSC sends memo to President on CDC surge and domestic preparedness NSC and OMB discuss budget for response Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel creates DoD Ebola Task Force Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf declares a State of Emergency DART leader arrives in country WHO declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern NSC Deputies Committee meets to discuss how to build a more robust UN response to the crises Second DART team deploys to Sierra Leone USAID publishes its first fact sheet on Ebola, the government of Guinea declares a public health emergency. The State Department awards a contract to Phoenix Air for the exclusive use of its bio-containment plane Kent Brantly discharged from Emory Medical Center NSC Deputies Committee meets and agrees that DoD should deploy a 25-bed DoD mobile medical unit to care for Ebola health care workers Senegal confirms its first case of Ebola. President makes Ebola Public Service Announcement WHO releases roadmap estimating that $490 million in humanitarian assistance will be required. WHO director general Margaret Chan and UN leaders revise this estimate to $600 million one week later September 2014 September 2 MSF President Dr. Joanne Lui appeals for UN member states to send civilian and military assets to assist the response. More than 100 CDC staff deployed September 10 Meeting of the NSC Principals Committee informed by CDC Director Frieden that cases could reach 1 million. Principals agree that Ebola should be designated a tier-one national security threat. September 12 NSC Principals Committee agrees with DoD plans for mobilization of the U.S. military to West Africa. September 14 EXORD signed by DoD establishing “Operation United Assistance” September 15 State Department’s Ebola Coordination Unit begins operation September 16 President Barack Obama announces a dramatic increase in the US response in a speech at CDC, including increased involvement of the Department of Defense (DoD). Maj. Gen. Darryl Williams arrives in Monrovia with an advance party of 13 U.S. military personnel. DoD submits requests to make additional fiscal year 2014 Overseas Contingency Operation (OCO) funds available for this effort, and Congress authorizes $750 65 September 18 September 19 September 22 September 24 September 25 September 26 September 28 September 29 million of the $1 billion reprogrammed from OCO funding to DoD’s Overseas Humanitarian, Disaster, and Civic Aid Program. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA) publishes a report estimating funding needs at $1 billion. United Nations Security Council hosts Special Session on Ebola United Nations Security Council creates the first ever UN emergency public health mission, the United Nations Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER). NSC Deputies Committee meets NSC Principals Committee meets Obama calls for a global mobilization on Ebola at the UN General Assembly 25-bed MMU arrives in Monrovia President Obama hosts previously planned Global Health Security Summit Liberian outbreak at its peak Thomas Eric Duncan confirmed as Ebola positive in Dallas Hospital October 2014 October 8 October 10 October 11 October 13 October 15 October 17 October 19 October 20 October 21 October 23 October 24 October 25 October 28 October 29 Thomas Eric Duncan dies Funneling of passangers into 5 U.S. airports begins NSC Principals Committee meets Program of “funneling” travelers from Ebola outbreak countries to 5 U.S. airports for arrival screening and active monitoring by public health officials launches at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York. Nina Pham confirmed as Ebola positive, admitted to NIH 10/15 Amber Vincent confirmed as Ebola positive, admitted to Emory 10/19 President Obama appoints Ron Klain as White House Ebola Response Coordinator The WHO confirms that Senegal is Ebola-free after receiving its first and only Ebola patient in August. NSC Deputies Committee meets Nigeria is confirmed Ebola-free after having 20 cases and eight deaths NSC Principals Committee meets. Agree to ask for $6.2B supplemental. Craig Spencer confirmed as Ebola positive admitted to Bellevue Hospital, NYC President welcomes Nina Pham to the White House NSC Deputies Committee meets NSC Principals Committee meets Amber Vincent released from Emory Medical Center NSC Deputies Committee meets NSC meeting on Ebola w/ President Obama November 2014 November 4 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Martin Dempsey requests a DoD “red cell” evaluate strategy for combating the Ebola epidemic. 66 November 5 November 7 November 10 November 13 November 14 November 15 November 18 November 21 November 26 November 30 The Administration submits a fiscal year 2015 “Emergency Appropriations” request for $6.18 billion to respond to the Ebola outbreak. NSC Deputies Committee meeting on funneling and screening WHO states Mali received its first Ebola case through Guinea Monrovia Medical Unit accepts first Ebola patient NSC Deputies Committee meets Official request for funding for UNMEER rises to $1.5 billion Homeland Security Council meets with president Obama NSC Deputies Committee meets WHO Ebola Situation Report shows 15,935 total cases and 5,689 deaths. Last day that Ambassadors Powell leads the ECU December 2014 December 1 December 5 December 7 December 10 December 12 December 18 December 18 Former Ambassador Steven Browning takes over the ECU with Andy Weber as his Deputy Coordinator. NSC Deputies Committee meets to discuss vaccine liability The number of new Ebola patients per week started a mostly consistent decline in Sierra Leone. Congress appropriates $5.4 billion for emergency funding for Ebola. DoD Red Cell reports findings that social mobilization is epidemic’s “center of gravity” State stops tracking donations to the Ebola Crisis. NSC meeting w/ President Obama. Approves sure in Sierra Leone. U.S. military personnel peak at just over 2,800 NSC Deputies Committee meeting January 2015 January 9 January 14 January 16 January 21 January 23 January 29 NSC Deputies Committee meeting on transition NSC Principals Committee meeting on transition NSC Deputies Committee meeting Mali is declared Ebola-free after eight cases and six deaths NSC Deputies Committee meeting on transition NSC meeting w/ President Obama on transition February 2015 February 5 February 11 February 12 February 28 NSC Deputies Committee meeting on transition President Obama announces transition of Ebola mission, wind-down of Operation United Assistance White House convenes first of three Ebola Lessons Learned Summits Total of 23,969 cases and 9,807 deaths. 19 medevac options to repatriate potentially exposed Partners in Health workers March 2015 67 March 6 March 8 March 25 March 27 March 31 NSC Deputies Committee meets to discuss medical evacuation CONOPS and MMU transition Number of deaths due to Ebola in this crisis surpasses 10,000 people. Number of Ebola cases passes 25,000. Last reported Ebola patient in Liberia dies before initial Ebola free declaration NSC Deputies Committee meets to recommend accelerated efforts in Guinea State Department’s Ebola Coordination Unit officially disbands. April 2015 April 1 April 30 Africa Bureau, OES, and IO at State take former ECU tasks. Monrovia Medical Unit is turned over to the Government of Liberia: PHS concludes mission at MMU May 2015 May 9 May 13 May 21 May 27 Liberia declared Ebola free after 42-days without a new case. NSC Deputies Committee meets to endorse end of Operation United Assistance NSC Principals Committee meets to endorse end of Operation United Assistance President approves end of end of Operation United Assistance June 2015 June 30 Operation United Assistance ended A 17 year-old Liberian boy is discovered during safe burial testing to be Ebola positive, 52 days after Liberia was declared Ebola free. September 2015 September 3 Liberia declared Ebola free a second time. November 2015 November 7 Sierra Leone declared Ebola free November 20 New cluster in Liberia discovered January 2016 January 4 January 15 RMT and DART de-activated New cluster in Sierra Leone discovered 68 APPENDIX B List of Federal Lessons Learned Studies and Official Histories USAID Larissa Fast (Global Development Lab) Stephanie Sauvolaine (OFDA) Mette Karlsen/Kat Echeverria (FFP) Caroline Andresen (OFDA) Mia Beers/Stephanie Savolaine (OFDA) Kama Garrison (GH) Eric King (Global Development Lab) Sarah Glass (Global Development Lab) & OFDA Subject Lessons Learned regarding the use of data and digital systems in the Ebola Response Overall review of OFDA's Ebola Response (2-phased approach: 1. Bending the curve; 2. Getting to zero) Internal after action review on FFP’s response. Ongoing lessons learned exercises on cash-based programming, including through external NGO the Cash Learning Partnership (CaLP) Independent external evaluation of technical/programmatic interventions & their relative contributions to "bending the curve" Convene Interagency Forum for a facilitated after action session to capture experiences and lessons learned related to interagency coordination (1st forum will be on Phase 1: bending the curve) Assessment to improve timeliness for data on social mobilization investments to improve programs in real time given the constraints emergency response. timelines Rapid assessments of information management and digital systems for response coordination in Liberia & Guinea Brief lessons-learned assessment of USAID’s ability to integrate and leverage private sector partnerships in humanitarian response with the objective to increase internal capacity and improve 69 Complete 2016 2016 2016 2016 2015 2016 July 2015 February 2015 internal processes to capitalize on valuable resources in times of crisis. Department of Defense Subject Joint Staff J7 JCOALessons Learned Team performed a study commissioned by AFRICOM. Focused on operational performance of DoD response, including civ-mil integration, what lines of effort CDR Ray A. Glenn (Jadded the most value, and DoD's 7/AFRICOM)/COL Eric Allely performance in the eyes of those agencies (Joint Staff J-7/NGB-JSB) it supported. Report will be public. Office of the Secretary of Defense Review will focus on DoD's internal processes and the structures that supported USAID, including the chain of command within DoD, funding and its constraints, DoD's internal battle rhythm, and the template for dividing up responsibility within DoD. OSDHomeland Defense is separately using Ebola to update pandemic and infection John Trigilio (OSD(P)-SOLIC/SHA) disease strategy, a two year process Northcom's study focuses on the training of the medical responder teams, emergency procurement of PPE, and Northcom's linkage with the Defense Logistics Agency to maintain a medical Barbara Gossage (NORTHCOM J7) response force. DoD's future strategic role in global health security, defining the network responsible for health security concerns within DoD, and potential technology Gigi Kwik Gronvall (DoD Threat gaps that DoD should prioritize Reduction Advisory Committee) addressing Official history, written at the Secret level, of the evolution of thinking and decision making of the Chairman and Dr Steven L. Rearden (Joint Staff other key Joint Staff personnel involved Historian's Office) in the Ebola Response 70 Complete Briefing and executive summary released July, 2015. Final report released December, 2015 November, 2105 Spring, 2015 May, 2015 May 2105 Subject DHS Aaron Firoved (DHS Health Affairs) Bradley Dickerson (CBRN PLCY) DHS is preparing an after action report on DHS’s role in the Ebola response. Department of State Subject C. Tony Pfaff (S/P) Uzma Javed (CA/OCS) International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) (POC: Rebecca Katz, ISN) Charles Rosenfarb (M/MED) Complete 2016 Complete Focus on bilateral and multilateral partnerships, State's interface with governments of the affected countries, the performance of State's Ebola Coordination Unit, and how the Consular offices adjusted to their new disease detection role. Study undertaken in cooperation with three GWU graduate students. Internal report. July, 2015 CA/OCS has reviewed its existing FAM guidance and OCS Duty Officer guidance regarding pandemics. In coordination with our consular Global Health and Consular Information Program Working Groups, CA/OCS has drafted a revision to 7 FAM 050 Consular Information Program, including a new Appendix devoted to the subject of End of Consular Information and Pandemics. CY15 The U/S for Arms Control and International Security Affairs has requested that the ISAB undertake a study of the international security and foreign policy implications of significant overseas disease outbreaks. By January 2016 Medevac lessons learned and SOPs July 2015 71 Anne Healy (D-MR) Focus on internal coordination and staffing mechanisms to support an international response effort. Health & Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: David Maples, Evaluation Team Lead, CDC/Division of Emergency Operations: Serena Vinter, Policy Unit Lead, Ebola Response, Lauren Hoffman, Lead, CDC/Office of Director Liaison Team to Ebola Response Office of Global Affairs: AMB Jimmy Kolker. POC - CAPT Mitch Wolfe Office of the Assistant Secretary for Health (OASH): Dr Karen DeSalvo OASH/Office of the Surgeon General (OSG) / Commissioned Corps of the USPHS: RADM Scott Giberson and CAPT Beck Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response Subject 2016 Complete CDC is basing its lessons learned effort in its Ebola Evaluation Team, which under David Maples is responsible for coordinating among CDCs offices to produce an interim progress report and then lessons learned report. He intends to focus on a broad swath of issues, including data consistency and disease propagation modeling; CDC's international deployment process and the health and safety of its personnel while abroad; how CDC partners with states and localities on active monitoring; the synchronization of risk communication strategies; and administrative preparedness to transition to emergency states in hiring actions and procurement capabilities. 2015 Lessons learned study. 2016 Lessons learned study. Overall command/coordination of the Commissioned Corps activation/deployment. Lessons learned during interagency, interdepartmental and international partner response, inclusive of primary mission - MMU development and operations. HHS has elected to pursue a full lessons learned process conducted by an outside 2016 72 2015 2015 entity and is in the process of designing and contracting the external review. HHS is also looking extensively at issues of funding, legislation, and policy around its own capability to mobilize in a health emergency under a variety of different authorizes, up to and including the declaration of a public health emergency or Stafford Act emergency White House Chief Technology Officer/Presidential Innovation Fellows Julia Kim (GSA) & Mikel Maron (State) White House Office of Science & Technology Policy Jayne Morrow Director of National Intelligence Michael F. Danowski ODNI Strategic Evaluation Subject Complete Data sharing between USG and responders in response's initial phase; effectiveness of White House CTO-GSA data sharing teleconferences. March, 2014 Subject Complete Internal memorandum cataloguing experience of the National Science & Technology Council’s mobilization on Ebola. June, 2015 Subject Complete Review of Ebola intelligence analysis and collection. January, 2016 73