Surge Dallas, Denton, Collin Tarrant Counties

County Assumptions:

0 Total Population: 6,487,090

Initial Positives: 135
Initial Date: 3/20/20

Model Assumptions:

Average Recovery Days 14

Average Incubation Days 4

Infection rate of 25% of the total population.

ER presentation rate of COVID positive cases 20%

Hospitalization rate of ER patients 30%
COVID positive cases needing ICU 40%
COVID positive ICU cases needing Vent 62%

General L08 for COVID +ve patients 6 days
L08 for COVID +ve patients in ICU 14 days

Number of people

Surge Dallas, Denton, Collin Tarrant Counties

Unmitigaled Surge Forecast

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CCIVID +ve ICU Patient census
COVID +ve Total Patient census
1600000 COVID Vent Patient census
Jr EOVID +ve Med-Sun; Patient census
40000 .I
II
1400000 .I

II
L200000 .I
30000 I. 
I 

1000000  

I
.II

IE 

510000  nfected_Pcp 
Recoveredjatlents. a
0 20000
600000
400000
IGOUD 
200000
0 0 
I M?y Juln Juli Dave  

Beta per clay

 

COVID19 Surge Dallas, Denton, Collin Tarrant Counties

Current Mitigation Efforts

Updated Beta Mitigated Surge Forecast

Strong Mitigation Efforts

Mitigated Surge Forecast

 

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

5 Beta Trend Per Day All
- - 355.3 . COPID we CJ Patient census CWID CJ 
33:3 Decaf MOde' we Tar-l Fa?tlenl census COUID weTar-l Patient census
I Bela Decay Observed CWID we Wi'l Patient cenSus town llv?eWI'l Patient cenSus 
Beta Decaf Trend COUID we we 
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a
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Apr May nan 23m
2020 Eur: 

 Surge Dallas County

County Assumptions:

- Total Population: 2,622,799

Initial Positives: 74
Initial Date: 3/20/20

Model Assumptions:

Average Recovery Days 14

Average Incubation Days 4

Infection rate of 25% of the total population.

ER presentation rate of COVID positive cases 20%

Hospitalization rate of ER patients 30%
COVID positive cases needing ICU 40%
COVID positive ICU cases needing Vent 62%

General LOS for COVID +ve patients 6 days
LOS for COVID +ve patients in ICU 14 days

 Surge Dallas County

Unmitigated Surge Forecast

 

 

CDVID +119 ICU Patient census

i CDWD +ve Total Patient census
17500 - f?x +ve Vent Patient census

\l CDVID +ve Med-Surg Patient census

600000 -

15000 - 

500000 

125cm . 

   

E- 400000 - l\
I 
0 10000 -
CD 3
D- Suscepuhle_Po-p 
lnfected_Pc-p 
Recoveredfatients 
30000:] 3
CD 7500
1:2
3
205000 
5000 -

100000

2500

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2020
May

 Surge Dallas County

Beta Trend Per Day Dallas

 

 

 

 

 

Beta Decay Mitigated Model
Beta Decay Observed
0'40 Beta Decay Trend
0.55
0.30
a; 0.25

5
IL
in
3

0.20
0.15
0.10
0.May
2020

law? pe' day

40:

COVIO we .Cu PatlElK (ems

- COUD +w foul tarsus
(0V0 m- Purl-nudism;
(.0le we ?ea 5th recent (ensus

 

Strong Mitigation Efforts

Mitigated Surge Forecast

 

AD:

fur? pr? day



 

 



 

Current Mitigation Efforts

Updated Beta Mitigated Surge Forecast
cowl) HIE CU census
- COVD Mutual Pauau tarsus
(Owl) we Vent Pot-em census
(DVD CV9 Ned SUN Fit-2m census