Critical Insights on MaineTM Tracking Survey A Division of DRI ~ Spring 2020 ~ Voters’ Views on Issues Facing Maine and the Nation Introduction Background & Methodology • • Each spring and fall, Critical Insights, a division of Digital Research, Inc. conducts the Critical Insights on Maine™ tracking survey, a comprehensive, statewide public opinion survey of registered voters that covers a variety of topics of interest to businesses, government, and the general public. Critical Insights on Maine™ has been documenting the attitudes, perceptions, and preferences of Maine’s residents for more than 20 years, making it the longest-running consistently-administered tracking survey in the Northeast. – In addition to the general-interest items presented in this report as a public service, the survey also includes a number of proprietary items for sponsoring entities; results of those items are released only to those sponsors. • This wave of the survey included a total of 600 respondents across the state who were surveyed by phone or online in March of 2020. – With a total sample of 600 respondents, results presented here have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.9 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. – All survey respondents were registered voters who live in Maine. Final data were statistically weighted to reflect the demographics of the state’s population and to ensure that those responding by phone or online had equal impact on the overall results. – On average, the entire survey instrument was 20 minutes in administrative length – including both general-interest items and all proprietary subscriber items. • Several of this survey’s questions – those related to the coronavirus – were included in a separate survey of American consumers through NationWise On-demand™, the DRI/Critical Insights national omnibus survey. – This online survey includes 1,200 respondents (reflective of consumers across the country on key demographic qualities), and is run on demand, throughout the year. More information about this national survey is included on page 35. 3 Views Toward the Economy and the Direction of Maine and the Nation Four out of ten voters in Maine now believe the state is headed in the right direction – slightly higher than the recent historical average. Democrats (42%) remain more likely than Republicans (30%) to feel the state is headed in the right direction, though the gap has lessened since last fall, with greater shares of Republicans now feeling the state is headed in the right direction. Direction of Maine 52% 40% 40% 62% 47% 42% 31% 44% 40% 30% 23% BALDACCI 42% 35% 38% 37% 17% LEPAGE 24% 28% 34% 35% 23% 30% 33% 30% 25% 34% 33% 38% Wrong Track Right Direction MILLS All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 5 Half of voters in Maine volunteer some aspect of the coronavirus specifically as the most pressing issue facing the state (most often the economic impacts). No other issue comes close. Democrats continue to be more likely than Republicans to volunteer healthcare as a concern (17% vs. 6%), while Republicans are more likely to be concerned about taxes (6% vs. 1%). Most Important Issues Facing Maine % naming each issue Economy Unemployment Healthcare Taxes Coronavirus Obama/McCain 59 Obama/Romney 44 36 35 31 22 9 8 7 11 9 14 13 12 15 4 KING 19 13 11 19 17 16 24 21 12 26 15 13 27 12 10 25 14 13 27 33 27 33 30 35 31 30 44 7 17 16 12 17 12 9 16 14 12 17 14 13 17 16 15 6 5 7 26 24 20 7 7 5 BALDACCI 7 7 3 4 23 22 18 14 11 5 32 31 30 27 17 12 Clinton/Trump 36 23 17 53 20 25 21 22 15 6 3 5 6 24 21 18 14 6 5 16 11 10 19 15 12 15 11 8 16 12 11 17 10 9 10 10 8 6 LEPAGE MILLS In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing Maine today? Asked without prompts. Only issues mentioned by 3% of respondents or more in the spring of 2020 are shown. 17 6 12 9 5 3 One out of four Mainers believe the nation as a whole is heading in the right direction – remaining closely aligned with the average since President Trump’s election. Republicans (44%) much are more likely than Democrats (14%) to feel the nation is headed in the right direction. Direction of the Nation 35% 42% 53% 47% 60% 55% 45% 54% 66% 64% 59% 53% 48% 52% 46% 42% 52% 53% 43% 49% 27% 23% 52% 49% 25% 25% 56% 59% 47% 37% 25% 30% 30% 38% 28% 19% OBAMA 26% 18% 26% 33% 19% 21% 28% 15% 25% 22% Wrong Track Right Direction TRUMP All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 7 A clear majority of Mainers now believe the economy will be worse in the next twelve months – doubling since last fall, and reaching the peak of the 2008 financial crisis. Republicans (36%) much are more likely than Democrats (20%) to feel the nation is headed in the right direction. Optimism About the Economy % predicting the economy will be: Series1 Better Series3 About the Same Series4 Worse 55 46 37 55 46 49 51 43 43 35 35 16 12 35 38 34 33 26 15 26 41 33 27 24 34 36 24 20 19 20 41 41 30 50 25 22 17 22 57 54 47 33 30 27 25 56 45 40 34 37 One-third believe the economy will be much worse in the next 12 months (32%). 25 21 19 28 22 17 20 18 46 41 41 31 30 26 26 45 42 38 24 25 27 29 29 22 32 19 14 12 10 BUSH 25 21 OBAMA TRUMP Now think about the future of the economy. In the next 12 months, do you think the economy will be…? 8 Half of Mainers mention some aspect of the coronavirus as a top economic concern for the next six months. Many also mention either general economic concerns or job loss specifically – a large increase from last fall that is no doubt related to the virus. Top Economic/Financial Concerns % naming each concern Coronavirus Healthcare Economy (general) Job Loss 48 32 25 20 17 18 16 16 13 12 7 27 25 9 10 7 8 25 24 18 17 24 19 25 22 27 24 21 21 20 17 14 9 10 9 11 OBAMA 9 8 7 14 15 8 10 9 14 12 11 10 TRUMP As you think about the next 6 months, what economic or financial situations concern you the MOST? Top responses in the spring of 2020 are shown. Multiple responses accepted. 9 Opinions of Politicians Roughly one out of three voters in Maine approve of President Trump’s job performance, consistent with his historical average. Just 11% of Democrats in Maine approve of Donald Trump’s performance, compared to 75% of Republicans – a ratio that has held steady over time. Approval of Donald Trump 50% 41% Fall 2018 58% 34% Spring 2019 53% 57% 41% 36% Fall 2019 Spring 2020 Disapprove Approve Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? 11 Half of Chellie Pingree’s constituents approve of her performance, rebounding after a drop last fall. Four out of ten constituents of Jared Golden approve of his performance, holding steady since his election. Approval of Congressional Representatives (Among those in the relevant districts) Chellie Pingree Jared Golden Disapprove Approve 22% 38% 28% 30% 22% 50% 44% 43% 46% Fall 2016 Fall 2017 33% 38% 19% 19% 15% 51% 38% 44% 42% Spring 2019 Fall 2019 Spring 2020 Fall 2018 Spring 2019 Fall 2019 Spring 2020 Three out of four Democrats in the first congressional district approve of Chellie Pingree’s performance (74%) compared to 30% of Republicans. Her approval has grown among both Democrats and Republicans since last fall. More than half of Democrats in his district approve of Jared Golden’s performance (55%), compared to 21% of Republicans. Representative Golden’s approval has held steady among Democrats and decreased among Republicans since last fall. (n=284) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chellie Pingree is handling her job as Representative in the U.S. Congress? In the Fall 2016 wave of the survey, we measured “approval” on a five-point scale. The net approval ratings reflect an adjustment for the use of this scale. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jared Golden is handling his job as Representative in the U.S. Congress? (n=316) 12 Six out of ten voters approve of Governor Mills’s performance, a strong increase from last fall, thanks to broader support among Republicans. Approval of Janet Mills The governor’s approval rating has held steady among Democrats (78% in the spring and 75% in the fall) but has increased among Republicans in that time (rising from 25% to 36%). 26% 31% 38% 47% 47% Spring 2019 Fall 2019 Governor LePage’s highest approval rating was 47%, shortly after taking office. 60% Disapprove Approve Spring 2020 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Janet Mills has been doing her job as governor so far? 13 Half of voters in Maine now approve of the state legislature’s performance – notably higher than at any point over the past several years. Approval of the State Legislature Almost seven out of ten Democrats in Maine now approve the legislature’s performance (67%), compared to four out of ten Republicans (41%). Approval of the legislature has increased among both Republicans and Democrats. 50% 29% 33% 26% 28% 41% 35% 33% 39% 43% Fall 2016 Fall 2017 Fall 2018 Spring 2019 Fall 2019 18% 52% Disapprove Approve Spring 2020 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the current Maine state legislature is doing its job? In the Fall 2016 wave of the survey, we measured “approval” on a five-point scale. The net approval ratings reflect an adjustment for the use of this scale. 14 Only about four out of ten Mainers overall currently approve of the way Susan Collins is handling her job as U.S. Senator. This relatively low approval rating has been consistent for the past year, and is about half of what it was at its peak. Approval of Senator Collins Disapprove Approve 20% Approval of Senator Collins is becoming even more split along party lines. 27% 28% 17% 36% % who approve 42% 18% 42% 52% 68 57 Republicans 46 69% 64% 61% 51% Fall '13 Fall '14 Fall '15 Fall '16 58% Fall '17 51% Fall '18 41% 42% Spring '19 Fall '19 37% 31 Democrats 31 20 Spring 2020 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Susan Collins is handling her job as U.S. Senator? In the fall 2016 wave of the survey, we measured “approval” on a five-point scale. The net approval ratings reflect an adjustment for the use of this scale. 15 Six out of ten voters approve of the job Angus King is doing as U.S. Senator, on par with the historical average. Approval of Senator King 17% 22% 24% 19% 63% Fall '13 Fall '14 Fall '15 22% 29% 57% 55% Spring '19 Fall '19 21% 29% 58% 49% 30% Senator King’s approval rating is particularly high among Democrats (78%, vs. 33% of Republicans) – a ratio that has held steady for some time. 53% 52% Fall '17 Fall '18 59% 42% Fall '16 Disapprove Approve Spring '20 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Angus King is handling his job as U.S. Senator? In the fall 2016 wave of the survey, we measured “approval” on a five-point scale. The net approval ratings reflect an adjustment for the use of this scale. 16 Reactions to the Coronavirus its Impacts Almost all polled Mainers are closely following developments related to the coronavirus in the news, including seven out of ten who are following such developments very closely. Interest in Coronavirus Developments 72% Mainers are more likely than consumers across the country to be following news about the virus very closely (72% vs. 63%). 23% 2% 4% Not at All / Never Heard of It / Not Sure A Little Somewhat Closely Very Closely Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: (n=596) How closely have you been following developments about the novel coronavirus or the newly-designated disease COVID-19 in the news? 18 Eight out of ten Mainers say the coronavirus is having a large or moderate impact on their dayto-day life now. Little change is expected overall in the next 60 days. Impact of the Coronavirus on Day-to-Day Life Currently Next 60 Days No Impact 3% No Impact 5% Small Impact 17% Large Impact 40% Moderate Impact 40% Mainers are no different from consumers overall in the degree of impact they are experiencing now and the degree of impact they will experience in the next two months. Small Impact 17% Large Impact 36% Moderate Impact 39% Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: (n=596) If you were asked to rate the impact of the virus on your day-to-day life SO FAR, would you say it has had a… If you were asked to look ahead to 60 days from now, what kind of impact do you expect the coronavirus will be having on your day-to-day life? Do you expect the virus will have a… 19 Half of Mainers believe that they or someone in their household will contract the novel coronavirus within the next 60 days. Likelihood of Contracting the Novel Coronavirus Not Sure 5% Extremely Likely 6% Not at all Likely 9% Mainers are no different from consumers across the nation in their expected likelihood of getting the virus. Very Likely 11% The perceived likelihood of contracting the virus decreases with age: 22% of those under age 35 believe they are very or somewhat likely to contract the virus, falling to just 10% of those age 65 or older. There is no difference in expected likelihood of contracting the virus across the state’s congressional districts or across parties. Not Too Likely 36% Somewhat Likely 33% Total Likely: 51% How likely do you think it is that you or someone in your household will contract the novel coronavirus at some point in the next 60 days? Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: (n=596) 20 Nearly all Mainers have changed some aspect of their behavior as a result of the coronavirus. Behavior Changes • Nine out of ten Mainers have avoided public places as a result of the coronavirus (88%), and eight out of ten say they are washing their hands more now (84%) or refraining from shaking hands (81%). • At least seven out of ten have avoided a public event they otherwise would have attended (75%), or have started following the news more closely (70%). 75% 71% • Six out of ten have visited a government website (58%), and about half have cancelled a trip they had planned (53%). 70% • Another 49% have purchased products to protect themselves from the virus, and 47% claim to have overbought personal or other household items. • Finally, one out of ten have sold stocks (8%). • Mainers are less likely to than consumers nationally to have started washing their hands more, to have started following the news more, or to have overbought household items. Mainers are more likely to have visited a governmental website. 88% 85% Avoided restaurants or other public spaces 84% 89% Increased the frequency that you wash your hands 81% 82% Kept from shaking someone’s hand Avoided a public event that you would otherwise have attended Started following the news more closely than usual Visited a governmental website specifically for information (e.g., CDC) 50% 58% 53% 54% Cancelled a day or overnight trip you had planned Purchased items specifically to protect yourself or others against the virus (facemasks or disinfectant) 49% 54% Purchased more of specific household items than you usually do (bathroom tissue, prescriptions, groceries) Cashed out stocks or other investments 80% 47% 8% 9% 58% Maine National Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: Maine (n=596) National (n=1,196) Which of the following, if any, have you personally done as a result of the coronavirus? Have you... 21 Mainers have a variety of concerns related to the coronavirus situation. By far the most prevalent concern is that the national economy will deteriorate. Concern About Impacts of the Virus 38% That the economy will experience a major downturn At the time of surveying, Mainers were less likely than consumers across the country to be concerned about losing income or being restricted to their homes. That the healthcare system in Maine will not be able to cope with the number of coronavirus patients who require treatment 32% 25% 27% 25% 20% 45% That you will lose income 24% 21% 45% That you will be unable to leave your home, due to your own illness or a general limit on movement 22% 15% 14% 14% Extremely Concerned • Seven out of ten Mainers are concerned that the coronavirus situation will cause a major economic downturn (70%), including four out of ten who are extremely concerned about a severe downturn (38%). • Fewer, but still about half of Mainers, are highly concerned that the healthcare system in the state will be unable to cope with the number coronavirus patients (52%), that someone else in their household will experience a severe illness as a result of the coronavirus (45%), or that they will lose income as a result of the virus (45%). • Closer to three out of ten are highly concerned that they will personally experience a severe illness (35%) or that they will be unable to leave home as a result of the virus (29%). 52% That another member of your household will experience a severe illness if they contract the coronavirus That you will experience a severe illness if you are infected by the coronavirus 70% 35% 29% Very Concerned Total Highly Concerned Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: (n=596) How concerned would you say you are, personally, about the following? 22 By a three-to-one margin, Mainers would rather deal with the economic impacts of the virus than with the virus itself. Concern About the Economic vs. Health Impacts Mainers are very similar to American consumers more broadly in their preference for taking their chances with the virus. Take Your Chances With the Virus 26% Take Your Chances With the Economic Fall-out 74% Republicans in Maine (34%) are almost twice as likely as Democrats (18%) to be willing to take their chances with the virus. Among those who are aware of the coronavirus and provide one of the responses shown: (n=489) If you believed that government policies designed to contain COVID-19 would result in significant disruptions in the economy, including perhaps the loss of your own job or a reduction in your income, would you rather… 23 Many Mainers believe the country as a whole is striking the right balance in addressing the health impacts of the coronavirus while minimizing its economic or social impacts. Only a relative few believe the country is too worried about the health impacts of the virus. Balancing the Impacts of the Virus Health vs. Economy Not Sure 13% Too Worried About the Economy 34% 20% Health vs. Social Disruption Too Worried About Minimizing the Health risks 14% Mainers are less likely than other Americans to believe the nation is too worried about minimizing the health impacts. Striking the Right Balance 38% Not Sure 13% Too Worried About Maintaining Day-to-Day Social Order 25% Too Worried About Minimizing Health Risks 14% 19% Striking the Right Balance 47% Republicans are more likely than Democrats in Maine to believe the country is striking the right balance between the health and other priorities. Democrats, in contrast, feel the country is too worried about the non-health impacts. Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: (n=596) Overall, how well do you believe the country today is balancing the need to MINIMIZE THE HEALTH IMPACT of the coronavirus with the need to have a HEALTHY ECONOMY/ MAINTAIN THE DAY-TO-DAY ORDER OF SOCIETY? If you had to choose, would you say the country is… 24 One out of three Mainers believe they will be most impacted by the social effects of the coronavirus, and another one out of three believe they will be most impacted by its economic effects. Fewer – about two in ten – say they will be most impacted by the health impacts of the virus. Most Likely Personal Impacts of the Virus The social disruption from the virus (like schools closing, workers being asked to work from home, cancelled events) 36% The economic disruption from the virus (a decline in the stock market, a general recession, loss of your job or income) The impact of the disease on your own, personal health or that of a family member 35% Mainers are less likely than others to believe they will be most impacted by the economic disruption (35% vs. 42%), and are more likely to say they will be most impacted by the health impacts of the virus (22% vs. 17%). 22% Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: (n=596) Which of the following do you think will have the MOST impact on your own life over the course of the next 60 days? 25 Almost six out of ten Mainers believe the state will be hit harder than other states by the economic impact of the coronavirus, but only three out of ten believe the state will be hit harder than other states by the health impacts of the virus. Impacts of the Virus I believe Maine will be hit harder by the ECONOMIC effects of the virus than most other states I believe Maine will be hit harder by the HEALTH effects of the virus than most other states 23% 12% 34% 21% Mainers are less likely than American consumers overall to be concerned about the health impacts of the virus (33% vs. 48%). 56% 33% Agree Strongly Agree Somewhat Total Agree Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: (n=596) To what extent would you say you agree or disagree with the following statements? 26 Three out of four Mainers believe the federal government should cover any lost wages if they can’t work, and half believe the state government should make up for their lost wages. One out of four believe their employer should cover their lost wages. Financial Assistance for Lost Wages (% believing entities should cover their lost wages) The federal government 74% The state government 46% Your employer None of the above 28% Mainers are just as likely as residents of other states to say the state government should make up their lost income, but Mainers are more likely to believe that the federal government should contribute (74% vs. 68%) 6% Among those who are aware of the coronavirus, are employed full- or part-time, and who provide a response shown: (n=278) If the effects of coronavirus fears along with government policies designed to contain COVID-19 caused your employer to incur business losses making them unable to pay your salary or wages, which of the following, if any, do you think is obligated to provide financial assistance to you? 27 Roughly half of Mainers have a positive rating of the federal government’s response to the coronavirus situation, including one out of four who rate the federal response as excellent or very good. Views Toward the Federal Government’s Response Terrible 15% Mainers are no different from consumers overall in their ratings of the federal government’s response to the crisis. Excellent 9% Very good 16% Poor 19% Maine Republicans are more than twice as likely as Democrats to rate the federal government’s response to the crisis as good or better (69% vs. 32%). Fair 20% Good 19% Total Positive: 44% Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: (n=596) All in all, how would you rate the overall quality of the federal government's response to the coronavirus up to this point? All things considered, would you say that the federal government's response to the coronavirus has been… 28 Four out of ten Mainers rate the state government’s handling of the coronavirus situation as excellent or very good. Americans overall have generally similar reviews of their own states’ handling of the situation. Rating of State Government Responses to Coronavirus Situation Ratings of Maine Ratings of Other States (by American consumers evaluating their own states) Terrible 2% Poor 6% Terrible 4% Excellent 13% Excellent 12% Poor 10% Fair 16% Very Good 28% Good 33% Fair 19% Very Good 26% Good 27% Total Highly Positive: 41% Republicans and Democrats have similar ratings of Maine’s response overall. Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: Maine (n=596) How would you rate the overall quality of [the Maine government’s / your state government’s] response to the coronavirus to this point? All things considered, would you say that the state government's response to the coronavirus has been… Total Highly Positive: 38% Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: National (n=1,196) 29 Only one out of three Mainers have a great deal or good amount of trust in the federal government’s ability to manage the coronavirus situation in a way that minimizes the impact it has on society. Four out of ten trust the federal government a little, and three out of ten do not trust the federal government at all. Trust in the Federal Government’s Management of the Coronavirus Situation Mainers are less likely than Americans overall to have trust in the federal government’s ability to manage the coronavirus crisis (32% vs. 43%). A Great Deal 9% Not At All 29% Maine Republicans are more than twice as likely as Democrats to have a good amount or great deal of trust in the federal government’s ability to manage the crisis (57% vs. 23%). A Good Amount 23% A Little 38% Total Trusting: 32% Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: (n=596) How much do you trust the federal government to manage the coronavirus in a way that minimizes the impact it has on our society? Overall, do you trust the federal government… 30 Two out of three Mainers have a great deal or a good amount of trust in the state government’s ability to deal with the coronavirus – very similar to how consumers across the country rate their own states. Amount of Trust in State Governments Ratings of Maine Ratings of Other States (by American consumers evaluating their own states) Not At All 7% Not At All 3% A Great Deal 15% Total Trusting: 62% A Great Deal 15% A Little 28% Total Trusting: 54% A Little 32% Although Democrats and Republicans in Maine have similar ratings of the state government’s handling of the coronavirus situation, the parties differ in their level of trust in Augusta: 74% of Democrats trust the state government to handle the crisis, compared to 50% of Republicans. A Good Amount 47% Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: Maine (n=596) A Good Amount 39% Trust in state governments is not split across party lines among consumers nationally. How much do you trust the state's government to manage the coronavirus in a way that minimizes the impact it has on Mainers? Overall, do you trust the state government… Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: National (n=1,196) 31 Six out of ten Mainers believe the media has contributed to panic about the coronavirus situation, and about half believe that reactions to the virus are worse than the virus itself. At the same time, just three out of ten believe Americans are overreacting to the dangers of the virus generally or feel that the virus has been politicized to hurt the president. Politicization of the Virus I believe the media bears responsibility for widespread panic and panic buying, based on its reporting on the coronavirus and COVID-19 I believe that peoples’ reactions to the virus will have a worse overall impact on the world than the virus itself I believe that Americans are overreacting to the dangers posed by the coronavirus I believe COVID-19 has been deliberately politicized, specifically to hurt the president 31% 31% 23% 31% 11% 22% 13% 16% 62% Mainers are less likely than consumers across the country to feel the virus has been politicized in these ways. 54% 33% Maine Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to agree with each of these statements. 29% Agree Strongly Agree Somewhat Total Agree Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: (n=596) To what extent would you say you agree or disagree with the following statements? 32 Four out of ten Mainers have a great deal or good amount of trust that the media will cover the coronavirus situation in an appropriate and responsible way. Trust in the Media’s Coverage of the Coronavirus Situation Not At All 22% A Little 34% A Great Deal 12% Total Trusting: 42% Mainers are more likely to have a good amount or a great deal of trust in the media (42% vs. 35%). A Good Amount 30% Democrats in Maine are much more likely than Republicans to trust the mainstream media’s reporting on the coronavirus (58% vs. 27%). Among those who are aware of the coronavirus: (n=596) How much do you trust the mainstream media, generally, to report on the coronavirus in an appropriate and responsible way? Do you trust the media… 33 For More Information To learn more about this survey or its findings, contact: Bob Domine President, Digital Research Group 207.590.7401 Bob.Domine@DigitalResearch.com About the DRl/Critical Insights National Omnibus Survey NationWise - Orr-demand NationWise - Orr-demand Wh at is NationWise?? tin-demand? {in-demand is a survey service that allows you to obtain valuable insights swiftly. economically. and on your own timeline. 0 provides survey responses from 1,200 demographically- representative Am erican consume rs. How quickly can I get the results? Generally. ten days. For example. if you approve your questions by Monday at noon. we?ll send you the tabulated responses no later than ThursdayI of the following week. What are the benefits? Broad population reach. lower costs. and speed of data collection and processing. With this survey, your costs are much lower than they would be for other custom research you get the answers much more quickly. 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