Oregon Department of Transportation April 10, 2020 Observed Statewide Traffic Volume Patterns: Related to COVID-19 Monitoring April 10, 2020 Oregon Department of Transportation 355 Capital St NE Salem, OR 97301 888-275-6368 For questions contact Becky Knudson: rebecca.a.knudson@odot.state.or.us 1 Oregon Department of Transportation April 10, 2020 Introduction The information provided in this weekly report is based on traffic volume data collected by the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) from Automatic Traffic Recorder (ATR) stations along the following state highway corridors: I-5, I84, I-205, I-405, US-97, US-197, US-20, US-26, US-30, US-395, OR-18, OR-22 and US-101. This includes reporting from 38 locations across the state highway system, which are provided in Table A in the Appendix. Year-Over-Year Change in State Highway Traffic Volumes Year-over-year comparison is an effective way of evaluating current traffic volumes compared to the same period in the previous year. This approach removes the effect of seasonal patterns and reveals trends, while avoiding misinterpretation of short term volatility as a longer term trend. The year-over-year change compares current traffic data to the same day of the previous year. Table 1 illustrates highway user response to COVID-19-related directives for weekdays and weekends. The values provided in the table are a sum of traffic volumes for all ATR volumes on the corridor. This is a simple way to compare traffic patterns between two years. Changes in traffic volumes began in earnest mid-March, when schools were closed by executive order along with related restrictions for groups over 25 people and restaurants limited to take-out and delivery only. The most recent week saw an average reduction of 40 percent in traffic volumes overall. This week and last have generally consistent patterns in year-over-year traffic volumes, indicating a steady-state level of travel. 2 Oregon Department of Transportation April 10, 2020 Table 1. Observed Year-Over-Year Difference in traffic Volumes by Corridor Date Corridor I-5 I-205 I-405 I-84 US 97 March 16-22, 2020 US197 First week of school closures US20 US26 US30 US395 OR18 OR22 US101 March 23-29, 2020 First week of Stay Home Executive Order March 30 -April 5, 2020 April 6-8, 2020 (partial week Mon-Wed) 2020 Volumes Average Average Weekday Weekend 2019 Volumes Average Average Weekend Weekday Weekday Diff 517,960 202,741 99,899 302,183 105,554 2,456 19,199 41,059 9,289 22,703 13,603 24,708 65,127 328,804 121,366 55,948 206,654 73,448 2,078 16,087 37,788 7,685 16,184 13,623 17,380 50,134 656,882 262,471 142,360 357,887 141,194 2,763 23,631 562,665 217,961 109,866 326,080 117,028 2,168 12,045 11,234 27,541 17,195 29,600 78,030 10,669 20,955 24,298 23,260 74,887 I-5 I-205 I-405 I-84 US 97 US197 US20 US26 US30 US395 OR18 OR22 US101 377,452 151,962 77,314 224,142 86,299 2,115 14,821 28,617 6,441 18,515 6,885 18,844 43,518 221,464 86,162 64,136 139,231 55,226 1,492 9,806 21,400 4,287 12,872 4,756 11,928 26,684 654,202 259,796 133,077 356,527 146,581 2,739 24,674 601,716 224,402 112,451 337,425 125,016 2,498 16,481 11,286 25,930 20,017 23,704 85,605 12,304 21,426 26,975 25,105 80,047 I-5 I-205 I-405 I-84 US 97 US197 US20 US26 US30 US395 OR18 OR22 US101 328,267 146,535 75,513 199,481 90,487 2,215 14,853 27,992 6,563 18,793 6,481 18,591 43,143 203,735 93,957 44,907 123,609 85,485 1,591 11,008 23,919 4,873 13,629 5,512 12,417 29,858 659,035 261,226 141,260 352,334 150,075 2,853 15,927 47,405 11,897 28,467 15,853 29,591 79,639 569,566 216,760 109,501 316,384 117,144 2,223 7,909 44,767 10,365 22,114 18,489 22,142 64,843 (0.50) (0.44) (0.47) (0.43) (0.40) (0.22) (0.07) (0.41) (0.45) (0.34) (0.59) (0.37) (0.46) I-5 I-205 I-405 I-84 US 97 US197 US20 US26 US30 US395 OR18 OR22 US101 313,351 151,032 77,966 185,339 96,480 2,127 14,746 29,359 6,844 19,369 6,671 19,475 44,216 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 633,162 256,220 139,129 344,861 146,182 2,827 14,628 44,845 11,344 28,855 16,082 30,316 77,022 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA (0.51) (0.41) (0.44) (0.46) (0.34) (0.25) 0.01 (0.35) (0.40) (0.33) (0.59) (0.36) (0.43) Weekend Diff (0.21) (0.42) (0.23) (0.44) (0.30) (0.49) (0.16) (0.37) (0.25) (0.37) (0.11) (0.04) (0.19) 0.34 2019 data missing (0.17) (0.28) (0.18) (0.23) (0.21) (0.44) (0.17) (0.25) (0.17) (0.33) (0.42) (0.63) (0.42) (0.62) (0.42) (0.43) (0.37) (0.59) (0.41) (0.56) (0.23) (0.40) (0.40) (0.41) 2019 data missing (0.43) (0.65) (0.29) (0.40) (0.66) (0.82) (0.21) (0.52) (0.49) (0.67) (0.64) (0.57) (0.59) (0.61) (0.27) (0.28) 0.39 (0.47) (0.53) (0.38) (0.70) (0.44) (0.54) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 3 Oregon Department of Transportation April 10, 2020 Oregon Department of Transportation April 10, 2020 Oregon Department of Transportation April 10, 2020 Observed Change in Total Traffic Volumes March 16 - April 8, 2020 Observing traffic volumes since mid-March reveals the day-to-day aggregate travel response to COVID-related restrictions. Figure 1 illustrates the day-to-day change in traffic volumes on 13 corridors by indexing all days to volumes on March 16th. This enables direct comparison of patterns side-by-side across the entire state. Generally speaking, there was a downward trend the first week across all corridors, ending with a rise in traffic volumes on Friday March 20th for US-97, US-197, US-26, US-30 and US-20. Weekend traffic volumes dropped by 20 to 40 percent with the exception of US-26 and OR-18. The March 23rd executive order initiated further decreases in traffic volumes that week, where volumes declined 25 to 30 percent, with the exception of US-97 and US-197. Larger reduction in travel occurs on weekends, where trips are dominated by non-essential household travel. Week one of the Stay Home order compared to the previous week reveals further decreases in traffic volumes. The largest decreases occurred on OR-18, US-26, US-20, US-30 and US-101, which see high use for commute and recreation-based travel. Week two after the Stay Home order reveals further decreases in traffic volumes in I-5, I-205, I-405, and I-84. US-97 and US-197 saw small increases in traffic volume relative to the previous week, likely related to rising truck freight movement. Finally, looking at traffic patterns for late March and early April reveals a small increase in volumes, likely related to pay-day and households making essential trips for supplies and personal business. Continued monitoring of traffic patterns will reveal whether current patterns represent steady-state conditions moving forward or whether further change in overall traffic volumes will occur. Figure 2 and Figure 3 separate the corridors into two groups to better reveal patterns. Figure 2 illustrates dayto-day change for I-5, I-205, I-405, I-84 and US-97. Figure 3 illustrates day-to-day change for US-197, US-26, US30, US-395, OR-18, OR-22 and US-101. 6 Oregon Department of Transportation April 10, 2020 Figure 1. Daily Change in Corridor Traffic Volumes Indexed to Monday March 16, 2020 7 Oregon Department of Transportation April 10, 2020 Figure 2. Daily Change in Traffic Volumes Indexed to Monday March 23, 2020: Interstate and US-97 Figure 3. Daily Change in Traffic Volumes Indexed to Monday March 23, 2020: Non-Interstate Corridors 8 Oregon Department of Transportation April 10, 2020 Observed Heavy Truck Patterns COVID-19 restrictions and global impacts to trade between nations effects the flow of freight in Oregon. Seventy percent of Oregon freight moves by truck, so looking truck volume patterns by weight will reveal the net impact of these contrasting market forces. Freight originating from other countries, such as China, declined as quarantines were put into place and factories closed. Some domestic freight declined as Oregon businesses stopped or reduced activity. However, some domestic freight increased, providing goods needed to support essential activity, such as medical supplies, groceries and e-commerce. Ideally, robust freight analysis would evaluate the flow of goods by commodity type, for example paper towels vs. car stereos. However, this data is unavailable, there is no reporting mechanism for that level of detail. What we can measure is the weight of trucks passing by weigh-in-motion scales to see if there are any new patterns arising during this time. Table B in the Appendix provides a list of the truck scales used to obtain observed truck data, locations focus on the major freight routes of I-5, I-84 (including US-730) and US-97. Table 2 presents the week-over-week change in truck tonnage for 17 truck scales. Positive change is displayed as orange and negative change as blue. This table reveals freight tonnage increased the last week of February and the week before schools were closed and social distancing was advised. For the week of the Stay Home mandate freight tonnage was lower than the prior week, followed by a week when tonnage increased. Two locations stand out from the others revealing increasing freight movement: Woodburn NB (I-5) and Olds Ferry EB (I-84). 9 Oregon Department of Transportation April 10, 2020 Table 2. Week-Over-Week Percent Change in Truck Tonnage for Select Weigh-in-Motion Truck Scales Scale Number 10-07 10-08 15-06 15-07 2408 24-09 Scale Name* Booth Ranch SB Booth Ranch NB Ashland SB Ashland NB Woodburn NB Woodburn SB Route I-5 I-5 I-5 I-5 I-5 I-5 14-02 14-04 23-05 23-06 30-05 30-06 Wyeth WB Cascade Locks EB Olds Ferry EB Farewell Bend WB Emigrant Hill WB Umatilla SB 09-06 16-03 16-04 18-05 18-07 Bend NB Juniper Butte NB Juniper Butte SB Klamath Falls SB Klamath Falls NB March 7-13 March 14-20 March 21-27 March 28-April 3 32 -14 -5 16 68 39 Location Average for March 3 2 6 5 59 8 -9 -2 32 12 40 3 24 11 22 -8 6 -11 -3 3 0 -7 -42 13 -5 6 -66 18 27 -5 9 -16 284 15 6 -7 3 0 54 6 7 -2 68 0 6 117 18 -25 9 2 -19 1 -29 -20 3 -6 -13 55 -25 11 -22 7 -15 102 -22 52 11 14 -15 -8 -19 5 0 10 -3 -3 2 21 2 18 3 -1 24 February 22-28 Feb. 29- March 6 33 44 -11 27 -18 -15 -12 1 41 14 -78 32 I-84 I-84 I-84 I-84 I-84 US-730 2 24 0 -6 45 29 US-97 US-97 US-97 US-97 US-97 Weekly Average 18 15 0 -5 311 -9 2 -8 13 21 13 26 -23 18 -21 -22 -19 -46 10 Oregon Department of Transportation April 10, 2020 Observed Change in Travel Time Reliability As traffic volumes decline, congestion declines, reliability and travels speeds increase. Table 3 reports the weekday afternoon peak period travel speeds for each week in March by corridor in the Portland Metropolitan region. The largest change in speeds since the first week in March occurred on I-5 and I-405. Table 3. Average Weekday Afternoon Peak Travel Speeds WEEK 3/1 - 3/7 3/8 - 3/14 3/15 - 3/21 3/22 - 3/28 NB 33.2 35.1 45.8 59.7 I-5 SB 38.1 42.2 60.0 60.5 NB 44.3 58.4 63.1 63.1 I-205 SB 49.3 61.3 63.1 62.8 NB 34.6 33.8 54.9 55.2 I-405 SB 29.2 31.8 53.4 56.0 EB 47.8 50.3 58.3 60.3 I-84 WB 51.1 49.2 61.6 61.1 Table 4 reports the percent change in travel speeds relative to the previous week. The second week of March saw some impact to travel speeds, especially on I-205. By the third week the other corridors followed the I-205 patterns with speeds rising as traffic volumes declined. Table 4. Percent Increase in Travel Speeds from Previous Week WEEK 3/1 - 3/7 3/8 - 3/14 3/15 - 3/21 3/22 - 3/28 NB 10% 6% 30% 30% I-5 SB 9% 11% 42% 1% NB 13% 32% 8% 0% I-205 SB -4% 24% 3% 0% NB 26% -2% 62% 0% I-405 SB 15% 9% 68% 5% EB 2% 5% 16% 3% I-84 WB 3% -4% 25% -1% Table 5 presents average weekday speeds indexed to the first week in March, this reveals how speeds have changed over the course of the month. Travel speeds for I-5 have increased 80% in the north bound direction, 59% south bound. I-205 speeds have increased 42% north bound and 59% south bound. The travel speeds for I405 have increased 92% in the south bound direction and increased 59% in north bound direction. I-84 has seen an overall increase of 20% - 26% in speeds. Continued monitoring reveals speeds are steady and mostly at freeflow levels across all corridors in the Portland region, continuing to show patterns established the end of March. Table 5. Overall Percent Change in Average Weekday Speeds since March 1, 2020 WEEK 3/1 - 3/7 3/8 - 3/14 3/15 - 3/21 3/22 - 3/28 NB 0% 6% 38% 80% I-5 SB 0% 11% 57% 59% NB 0% 32% 42% 42% I-205 SB 0% 24% 28% 27% NB 0% -2% 59% 59% I-405 SB 0% 9% 83% 92% EB 0% 5% 22% 26% I-84 WB 0% -4% 21% 20% 11 Oregon Department of Transportation April 10, 2020 Travel times have an inverse relationship with travel speeds, as travel speeds increase travel times decrease. Figure 4 illustrates how afternoon peak period travel times have changed across the different corridors over the month of March in the Portland region. As traffic volumes decline mid-March, congestion is reduced and travel speeds rise. By the week of March 16 when schools were closed, travel speeds are reliable and congestion levels low to moderate on most corridors, with the exception of I-5 that had a small rise on March 17th. Since March 20th, all corridors appear reliable with steady travel speeds. Figure 4. Afternoon Peak Period Travel Times Indexed to Monday March 2, 2020 ODOT will continue to monitor and report highway traffic volumes and patterns as Oregon strives to protect the health and safety of Oregon families by decreasing the rate of COVID-19 infection and developing strategies to mitigate the negative impacts on the economy. 12 Oregon Department of Transportation Appendix April 10, 2020 Table A. Automatic Traffic Recorder Locations ATR Number ATR Name Route ODOT Highway Number Mile Point County 03-016 Stafford I-205 064 0.76 Washington 26-024 Glenn Jackson Bridge I-205 064 25.50 Multnomah 26-027 Fremont Bridge I-405 061 3.05 Multnomah 03-011 Wilsonville I-5 001 281.20 Clackamas 10-005 Roseburg I-5 001 130.15 Douglas 15-019 Medford Viaduct I-5 001 28.33 Jackson 20-020 Martin Creek I-5 001 170.25 Lane 20-025 Eugene-Glenwood I-5 001 190.92 Lane 22-005 North Albany I-5 001 234.8 Linn 26-004 Interstate Bridge I-5 001 307.97 Multnomah 26-016 Iowa Street I-5 001 298.24 Multnomah 23-014 Snake River I-84 006 376.98 Malheur 26-014 Hoyt I-84 002 3.35 Multnomah 26-028 Fairview I-84 002 11.45 Multnomah 30-004 Pendleton I-84 006 203.34 Umatilla 33-001 Rowena I-84 002 75.93 Wasco 13-003 Hines US20 007 126.60 Harney 21-006 Burnt Woods US20 033 34.24 Lincoln 22-013 Waterloo US20 016 19.05 Linn 09-003 Lava Butte US97 004 142.41 Deschutes 09-007 Bend-Empire US97 004 135.95 Deschutes 09-020 Redmond US97 004 124.39 Deschutes 16-002 Madras US97 004 97.11 Jefferson 18-006 Chemult US97 004 204.65 Klamath 18-019 Midland US97 004 289.44 Klamath 33-005 Dufur US197 004 10.30 Wasco 16-006 Warm Springs US26 053 113.17 Jefferson 26-003 Gresham US26 026 14.36 Multnomah 34-005 Timber Junction US26 047 37.60 Washington 05-006 Rainier US30 092 53.33 Columbia 30-008 South Pendleton US395 028 1.77 Umatilla 27-001 Valley Junction OR18 039 23.23 Polk 13 Oregon Department of Transportation April 10, 2020 24-004 North Santiam OR22 162 2.82 Marion 04-001 Gearhart US101 009 15.90 Clatsop 06-009 Coos Bay US101 009 244.02 Coos 08-009 Port Orford US101 009 301.45 Curry 21-008 D River Wayside US101 009 114.91 Lincoln 21-009 North Newport US101 009 139.11 Lincoln Table B. Truck Weigh-in-Motion Scales Scale Number Scale Name* Route Mile Point 10-07 Booth Ranch SB I-5 111.78 10-08 Booth Ranch NB I-5 111.07 15-06 Ashland SB I-5 18.24 15-07 Ashland NB I-5 18.08 2408 Woodburn NB I-5 274.15 24-09 Woodburn SB I-5 274.18 14-02 Wyeth WB I-84 54.30 14-04 Cascade Locks EB I-84 44.93 23-05 Olds Ferry EB I-84 354.38 23-06 Farewell Bend WB I-84 353.31 30-05 Emigrant Hill WB I-84 226.95 30-06 Umatilla SB US-730 184.00 09-06 Bend NB US-97 14.50 16-03 Juniper Butte NB US-97 106.90 16-04 Juniper Butte SB US-97 108.20 18-05 Klamath Falls SB US-97 271.41 18-07 Klamath Falls NB US-97 271.73 * NB = Northbound direction, SB = Southbound direction 14