COVID-19 Modeling Update April 16, 2020 All Regions {10 L0 UIAS NA MENT OF HEALTH Catahoula LaSalle Concordia Rapides Vernon Avoyelles St. Helena Evangeline Beauregard St. Landry Livingston Jefferson Caleasieu Davis St. Martin Lafayette Iberia Cameron Terrebonne Tangipahnn James . St. Assumption Charles I ermilion Je?'erso Lafourche Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6 Region 7 Region 8 Region 9 Washington St. Tammany Region 1: Infectious persons per day under four scenarios R0 = 2.4 (baseline) R0 = 2.0 R0 = 1.7 (effective social distancing) R0 = 1.3 (shelter in place) Note: These projection curves illustrate infection and hospitalization scenarios under different levels of social distancing interventions. They are not predictions of the future. Hospitalization/Vent Projections – Region 1 *Actual COVID+ hospitalization and COVID+ on vent lines may be an undercount because it does not include COVID PUIs (persons under investigation). For example, on 4/15 there were an additional 305 COVID PUIs in the hospital and 30 COVID PUIs on vents in Region 1. Region 2: Infectious persons per day under four scenarios R0 = 2.4 (baseline) R0 = 2.0 R0 = 1.7 (effective social distancing) R0 = 1.3 (shelter in place) Note: These projection curves illustrate infection and hospitalization scenarios under different levels of social distancing interventions. They are not predictions of the future. Hospitalization/Vent Projections – Region 2 *Actual COVID+ hospitalization and COVID+ on vent lines may be an undercount because it does not include PUIs. For example, on 4/15 there were an additional 128 COVID PUIs in the hospital and 8 COVID PUIs on vents in Region 2. Region 3: Infectious persons per day under four scenarios R0 = 2.4 (baseline) R0 = 2.0 R0 = 1.7 (effective social distancing) R0 = 1.3 (shelter in place) Note: These projection curves illustrate infection and hospitalization scenarios under different levels of social distancing interventions. They are not predictions of the future. Hospitalization/Vent Projections – Region 3 *Actual COVID+ hospitalization and COVID+ on vent lines may be an undercount because it does not include PUIs. For example, on 4/15 there were an additional 73 COVID PUIs in the hospital and 2 COVID PUIs on vents in Region 3. Region 4: Infectious persons per day under four scenarios R0 = 2.4 (baseline) R0 = 2.0 R0 = 1.7 (effective social distancing) R0 = 1.3 (shelter in place) Note: These projection curves illustrate infection and hospitalization scenarios under different levels of social distancing interventions. They are not predictions of the future. Hospitalization/Vent Projections – Region 4 *Actual COVID+ hospitalization and COVID+ on vent lines may be an undercount because it does not include PUIs. For example, on 4/15 there were an additional 50 COVID PUIs in the hospital and 3 COVID PUIs on vents in Region 4. Region 5: Infectious persons per day under four scenarios R0 = 2.4 (baseline) R0 = 2.0 R0 = 1.7 (effective social distancing) R0 = 1.3 (shelter in place) Note: These projection curves illustrate infection and hospitalization scenarios under different levels of social distancing interventions. They are not predictions of the future. Hospitalization/Vent Projections – Region 5 *Actual COVID+ hospitalization line may be an undercount because it does not include PUIs. For example, on 4/15 there were an additional 20 COVID PUIs in the hospital and 1 COVID PUI on a vent in Region 5. Region 6: Infectious persons per day under four scenarios R0 = 2.4 (baseline) R0 = 2.0 R0 = 1.7 (effective social distancing) R0 = 1.3 (shelter in place) Note: These projection curves illustrate infection and hospitalization scenarios under different levels of social distancing interventions. They are not predictions of the future. Hospitalization/Vent Projections – Region 6 *Actual COVID+ hospitalization line may be an undercount because it does not include PUIs. For example, on 4/15 there were an additional 44 COVID PUIs in the hospital and 4 COVID PUIs on vents in Region 6. Region 7: Infectious persons per day under four scenarios R0 = 2.4 (baseline) R0 = 2.0 R0 = 1.7 (effective social distancing) R0 = 1.3 (shelter in place) Note: These projection curves illustrate infection and hospitalization scenarios under different levels of social distancing interventions. They are not predictions of the future. Hospitalization/Vent Projections – Region 7 *Actual COVID+ hospitalization line may be an undercount because it does not include PUIs. For example, on 4/15 there were an additional 60 COVID PUIs in the hospital in Region 7. Region 8: Infectious persons per day under four scenarios R0 = 2.4 (baseline) R0 = 2.0 R0 = 1.7 (effective social distancing) R0 = 1.3 (shelter in place) Note: These projection curves illustrate infection and hospitalization scenarios under different levels of social distancing interventions. They are not predictions of the future. Hospitalization/Vent Projections – Region 8 *Actual COVID+ hospitalization line may be an undercount because it does not include PUIs. For example, on 4/15 there were an additional 98 COVID PUIs in the hospital and 12 COVID PUIs on vents in Region 8. Region 9: Infectious persons per day under four scenarios R0 = 2.4 (baseline) R0 = 2.0 R0 = 1.7 (effective social distancing) R0 = 1.3 (shelter in place) Note: These projection curves illustrate infection and hospitalization scenarios under different levels of social distancing interventions. They are not predictions of the future. Hospitalization/Vent Projections – Region 9 *Actual COVID+ hospitalization line may be an undercount because it does not include PUIs. For example, on 4/15 there were an additional 52 COVID PUIs in the hospital and 1 COVID PUI on a vent in Region 9.