PORTLAND POLICE BUREAU STRATEGIC SERVICES DIVISION Trends Analysis: Pre & Post School Closures – April 15, 2020 The following is an analysis of trends seen in calls for service, offenses, arrests and traffic citations following Governor Kate Brown’s order to close K-12 schools on March 12th. The time periods used in the call analysis are listed below, unless otherwise noted: • Dates following school closure order: March 12, 2020 – April 15, 2020 • Dates prior to school closure order: February 6, 2020 – March 11, 2020 • Same period, prior year: March 12, 2019 – April 15, 2019 CALLS FOR SERVICE: Calls for service initially decreased following the school closure order, but have started to trend back up toward normal levels in the past week. Most of the increase during the week of April 5th can be attributed to the doubling of self-initiated traffic stops compared to prior weeks. Increases in disturbance and welfare check calls contributed to most of the increase in dispatched calls. The increase in calls suggests the stay at home order is not being adhered to as closely as it was in prior weeks. Total Calls by Week with Average Line CIVIL – CIVIL PROBLEM: On average, PPB is responding to 12 more calls/day than prior to the school closure and 11 more calls/day during the same time period last year. • Context: Reviewing the remarks from these calls has revealed that the increase is likely being fueled by calls reporting individuals who are disobeying the executive orders requiring social distancing and closure of nonessential businesses (e.g. people in parks, businesses remaining open, people having parties, etc.). Normally, this call type is used as a catch-all for domestic issues (family-related, roommate issues) as well as call types not otherwise categorized. BURGLARY: On average, there have been about 2 more calls/day compared to 2019 and 3 more calls/day compared to the weeks prior. • Context: Residential burglary has decreased while commercial burglary has increased. The decrease in residential burglary is likely related to the increase in people staying at home while the increase in commercial burglary could be in part due to COVID-19 related business closures. Please see the supplemental burglary report for more details. PORTLAND POLICE BUREAU STRATEGIC SERVICES DIVISION Trends Analysis: Pre & Post School Closures – April 15, 2020 TRAFFIC COLLISIONS AND CITATIONS: Collision calls have decreased by almost half since March 12, down 19 calls/day compared to 2019 and down 20 calls/day compared to the weeks prior. While traffic stops initially decreased, they sharply increased during the week of April 5th leading to an overall increase in calls for service. • Context: The decrease in drivers has resulted in a reduction in collisions. However, recent citations and warnings issued by the Traffic Division suggest risky driving behavior is increasing which has required increased enforcement. The majority of citations and warnings issued by Traffic Division post school closure order have been for speeding. Please see the supplemental traffic report for more details. DOMESTIC VIOLENCE ARRESTS: There has been a 29% increase in arrests compared to last year and a 22% increase in arrests compared to the weeks prior. • Context: For the month of March, arrests with at least one DV charge were up 24% in 2020 compared to March 2019. Through the end of March, the year-to-date 2020 DV arrests were also up by 24% compared to 2019. March 2020 arrests were stable compared to February 2020. On average, the increase represents less than one additional DV arrest per day. The March 2020 increase in DV arrests has been present since January, so it cannot specifically be attributed to changes associated with COVID-19 or the stay-at-home order. Additionally, DV arrests have been at their present levels of around 100/month since May of 2019. Note that ‘Domestic Violence’ call types only account for a small portion of actual arrests with a domestic violence charge. Most DV-related arrests are generated from ‘Disturbance’ call categories. For this reason, DV arrests are used for reporting as they are the best reflection of the actual volume of Domestic Violence activity. DISTURBANCE: On average, there have been 10 more calls/day compared to last year and 12 more calls/day compared to the weeks prior. Disturbance calls further increased the week of April 5th. • Context: Disturbance calls are one of the most common call category PPB is dispatched to. Disturbances include a variety of scenarios that range from non-police issues to assaults. Domestic violence reports and other assaults are often generated from disturbance calls. The recent week’s increase in disturbance calls, along with other call types, suggests that Portland is returning to normal behavior rather than adhering to the stay at home order. SHOTS FIRED: On average, there have been 4 more calls/day compared to last year and 2 more calls/day compared to the weeks prior. • Context: Although there has been an increase in reported Shots Fired calls, the number of confirmed incidents in SFIR decreased in the weeks following the school closure order. However, the week of March 29th saw a return to the high volume of shootings that occurred in January and early February. As of the 15th, April 2020 has already equaled the number of shootings in the entire month of April 2019. North Precinct has continued to see an increase in gun violence. Please see the supplemental shots fired report for more details. PORTLAND POLICE BUREAU STRATEGIC SERVICES DIVISION Trends Analysis: Pre & Post School Closures – April 15, 2020 WELFARE CHECK, UNWANTED PERSON, and SUSPICIOUS: These call types all initially declined following the school closure order but have seen a recent increase back to previous weeks’ levels. • Context: The initial decrease may have been driven by changes in PPB’s response to certain calls in combination with the stay at home and business closure orders. The return to normal levels for these call types suggests the stay at home order is not being adhered to as closely as it was in prior weeks. FOOD BASKET: On average, there have been about 5 more calls/day both compared to 2019 and the weeks prior. • Context: On average, PPB delivered less than 1 food box/per day to community members in both the prior period and year prior. SUICIDE ATTEMPT OR THREAT (Behavioral Health): There has been no change in call volume compared to 2019, and 1 less call/day compared to the weeks prior, so no significant change for either period for this call type. • Context: during the first two weeks following March 12th, suicide calls were up compared to both the prior period and year prior, but have nearly halved in the following weeks BIKE THEFT: The total number of stolen bicycles and recovered bicycles have increased in the first 3 months of 2020 when compared to 2019 • Context: The increase in community member utilizing online reporting could be resulting in an increase in both bike theft reports and recoveries. Please see the supplemental shots fired report for more details.