COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 116TH CONGRESS 1st Session SENATE REPORT 116-XX (U)REPOR T OF THE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE UNITED STATES SENATE ON RUSSIAN ACTIVE MEASURES CAMPAIGNS AND INTERFERENCE IN THE 2016 U.S. ELECTION VOLUME 4: REVIEW OF THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT WITH ADDITIONAL VIEWS COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY (U) Review of the Intelligence Community Assessment I. (U) INTRODUCTION........................................................................................... 6 II. (U) FINDINGS ..................................................................................................... 6 III. (U) BACKGROUND.............................................................. ............................ 8 .............................. 10 ................................................................. 10 ......................................................... ...... 13 ................................................................................. 24 2 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY .............................. 24 D. ............................................................... 26 V. (U) ICA REVIEW: TASKING TO PUBLICATION ......................................... .. 26 A. (U) Tasking and Drafting ................................................................................ 26 B. (U) Confidence Level Debate Over One Judgment.. ...................................... 32 C. (U) Discussion of the "Steele Reporting" in the ICA........................................ 38 D. (U) Finalizing the ICA............................................................................................... 42 VI. (U) ICA REVIEW: KEY JUDGEMENTS ....................................................... .46 A.(U) On the Key Judgments of the December 2016 ICA................................. .46 1.(U) Russian Efforts to Influence the 2016 Election ......................................46 2.(U) Russian Leadership Intentions .............................................................. .47 3.(U) Multifaceted Russian Influence Operations ................................. .......... 48 4.(U) The Threat from Future Russian Influence Operations......................... .50 B.(U) Counterintelligence Investigations ............................................................ 50 C.(U) The Unfinished Work of Intelligence ........................................................ 50 D.(U) Intelligence Cited in the ICA .................................................................... 51 VII. (U) ICA Review: Section-by-Section.............................................................. 52 II: Putin Ordered Campaign to A. Analytic Line Influence U.S. Election ........................................................................................ 53 1. (U) Discussion............................................................................................. 54 2. (U) On Putin Directing the Active Measures ............................................... 67 B- A n a lytic Linell: Russian Campaign Was Multifaceted ................... .82 1- Introduction..................................................................................... 82 2. First Sub-topic: Cyber Espionage Against U.S. Political Organizations ............................................................................ 91 3 ................................................................................... 96 3 COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 4.(U) Third Sub-topic: Russian Cyber Intrusions Into State Electoral Infrastructure.... ............................................................................................. 100 5.(U) Fourth Sub-topic: Russian Propaganda Efforts ....................................106 C-Analytic Line I: Influence Effort Was Boldest Yet in the US ...... 111 ................................................................................................. 113 ..................................................................................... 114 ....................................................................................... 115 ...................................................................................... 116 E-Analytic Linel: Election Operation Signals "New Normal" In Russian Influence Efforts ...................................................................................118 1.(U) CIA Reporting ...................................................................................... 119 2.(U) NSA Reporting ..................................................................................... 123 3.(U) DIA Reporting ................................... ................................................... 124 4.(U) Open Source Reporting ........................................................................ 125 5.(U) Department of State Reporting ............................................................ 126 6.(U) DHS Reporting ..................................................................................... 126 ................................................ 126 VIII. IX. (U) The ICAAnnexes ...................................................................................... 127 A I: C.(U~) Annex Open Source Center Analysis: Russia-Kremlin's TV Seeks To Influence Politics, Fuel Discontent in US, Published December 12, 2012 ................................................................................................................... 132 D E ........................................................................................................................... 133 4 COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY ..................................................................................................... 133 H.(U) Annex I:Estimative Language..............................................................134 ....................................................................................................................... 135 A.(U) Sensitivity of the Reporting ........................................................ ............ 135 B ...................... 136 c .............................................................................................................. 138 (U)APPENDIX B: CIAANALYSIS ON RUSSIAN ACTIVE MEASURES1981-1991, 2016 ......................................................................................... ........... 144 A.(U) Historical Analysis-1981-1991 ............................................................. 144 B.(U) National Intelligence Council Report-2016 ................ .......................... 150 (U) Appendix C: THE COMMITIEE REVIEW PROCESS ................................ 153 (U) Additional Views of Senator Wyden ..................................................................... 157 COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY I. (U) INTRODUCTION and a declassified version dated January 6, 2017, and made available to the public on the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) website. The Committee's review focused on the highly compartmented "Memorandum to the President." II. (U) FINDINGS 1. (U) The Committee found the ICA presents a coherent and well-constructed intelligence basis for the case of unprecedented Russian interference in the 2016 U.S . presidential election. On the analytic lines of the ICA, the Committee concludes that all analytic lines are supported with all-source intelligence, although with varying substantiation. The Committee did not discover any significant analytic tradecraft issues in the preparation or final presentation of the ICA. II (U) The ICA reflects proper analytic tradecraft despite being tasked and completed within a compressed timefrarne. The compact timeframe was a contributing factor for not conducting formal analysis of competing hypotheses. (U) The differing confidence levels on one analytic judgment are justified and properly represented. Those in disagreement all stated that they had the opportunity to express differing points of view. The decision regarding the presentation of differing confidence levels was the responsibility of the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) John Brennan and the Director of the National Security Agency (NSA) Admiral Michael Rogers, both of whom independently expressed to the Committee that they reached the final wording openly and with sufficient exchanges of views. (U) Multiple intelligence disciplines are used and identified throughout the ICA. Where the Committee noted concerns about the use of specific sources, in no case did the Committee conclude any analytic line was compromised as a result. (U) In all the interviews of those who drafted and prepared the ICA, the Committee heard consistently that analysts were under no politically motivated pressure to reach specific conclusions. All analysts expressed that they were free to debate, object to content, and assess confidence levels, as is normal and proper for the analytic process. 6 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 2. (U) The Committee found that the agencies responsible for the !CA-CIA, NSA, and FBI, under the aegis of ODNI-met the primary tasking as directed by President Obama, which was to assemble a product that reflected the intelligence available to the Intelligence Community (IC) regarding Russian interference in the 2016 election. 3. (U) The Committee found that the ICA provides a proper representation of the intelligence collected by CIA, NSA, and FBI on Russian interference in 2016, and this body of evidence supports the substance and judgments of the ICA. Regarding FBI, the ICA states, in its "Scope and Sourcing" introduction, that "[w ]e also do not include information from ongoing investigations." The Committee found that the information provided by Christopher Steele to FBI was not used in the body of the ICA or to support any of its analytic judgments. However, a summary of this material was included in Annex A as a compromise to FBI's insistence that the information was responsive to the presidential tasking. 4. (U) The Committee found the ICA makes a clear argument that the manner and aggressiveness of the Russian interference was historically unprecedented. However, the ICA and its sources do not provide a substantial representation of Russian interference in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, as the Committee understands was part of the President's original tasking. 5. (. . -) The Committee found that the ICA did not provide a set of policy rec~ations on how to respond to future Russian active measures, which was part of the tasking the President conveyed to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) James Clapper. The ICA did include, in the compartmented version, an unclassified section independently produced by OHS, FBI, and the Department of Commerce's National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), "OHS/FBI/NIST Recommendations: Options to Protect and Defend US Election Infrastructure and US Political Parties." (U) The absence of policy recommendations was deliberate, due to the well-established norm that the IC provides insight and warning to policy makers, but does not itself make policy. 7 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMI1TEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 6. (U) The Committee found the ICA would benefit from a more comprehensive presentation of how Russian propaganda-as generated by Russia's multiple state-owned platforms-was used to complement the full Russian influence campaign. (U) Open source collection is a long-standing discipline for CIA and other elements of the IC, and open source reporting is used throughout the ICA to support specific analytic assertions. However, open source reporting on RT and Sputnik's coverage of WikiLeaks releases of Democratic National Committee (DNC) information would have strengthened the ICA's examination of Russia's use of propaganda. On this point, the Committee finds that Annex of the ICA-"Open Source Center Analysis: Russia: Kremlin's TV Seeks to Influence Politics, Fuel Discontent in US," published December 12, 2012-should have been updated to provide a summary of Kremlin propaganda in 2016, thereby making a more relevant contribution to the ICA. An update to this assessment was not produced by the Open Source Enterprise until after the publication of the ICA. I 7. role of social media has been a significant focus by the Committee and is discussed in a separate volume of this report. III. (U) BACKGROUND (U) The Obama Administration released two versions of the ICA, a classified version on January 5 and a declassified version on January 6, 2017, both titled Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections. 1 8 - COMMI1TEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY The Committee held two hearings on January 10, 2017--one open hearing in the morning and one closed hearing in the afternoon-to take testimony on the ICA from Director Clapper, FBI Director James Corney, Director Brennan, and Admiral Rogers. 4 (U) On January 23, Committee Chairman Burr and Vice Chairman Warner of the Committee convened a business meeting to discuss plans for the Committee's oversight on the issue of Russian activities during the 2016 presidential election cycle. 5 (U) At the business meeting, the Committee unanimously agreed to initiate a formal inquiry into the subject of Russian involvement in the 2016 elections. The Committee agreed to Terms of Referenee delineating the lines of inquiry. (U) The Committee conducted its examination of the ICA through document reviews of source documents and related materials and through interviews with IC officials involved in the direction, preparation, writing, editing, and review of the ICA. 4 (U) SSCI Open and Closed Hearings on Russian Active Measures Against the U.S. Political System, January 10, 2017. 5 (U) Throughout 2017 the Committee held numerous hearings and briefings on the subject of Russian active measures, and Committee staff organized briefings on this topic as part of regular oversight activities. 9 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY In the case of FBI documentation for provide the correct underlying report until January 29, 2018. , FBI did not IV. A. 10 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • • (U) On July 22, 2016, WikiLeaks began to disseminate material exfiltrated from the DNC. 7 • • Also Director Brennan spoke with Director Corney and learned that FBI had an open investigation into potential ties between Moscow and U.S. persons associated with the Trump Campaign. 10 p I • g p • p codenamed CROSSFIRE HURRICANE, on July 30, 2016. 11 tee notes rference, I - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 12 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY B. 13 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 26 (U) 27 (U) 28 (U) 29 (U) 30 (U) 31 (U) Ibid., p. 35. Ibid., pp. 17-19. Ibid., pp. 20-21. Ibid., pp. 16-17. Ibid., pp. 21-23. Ibid., p. 18. 14 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 32 (U) 33 (U) 34 (U) 35 (U) Ibid., pp. 36-38, 43. Ibid., pp. 26-27. Ibid., p. 26. Ibid., p. 52. 15 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 36 37 (U) I i ., pp. 80-84. 38 (U) Ibid., p. 35. 39 (U) Ibid., pp. 64-65. 16 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY c. 40 (U) Ibid., pp. 71-72. 41 (U) Ibid .. DD. 97-98. 42 17 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY COMMITTEE SENSITIVE RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 43 19 - COMMI1TEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 5. 20 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 21 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 45 46 22 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 23 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMI'ITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 48 (U) The public statement refers to the joint public statement by ODNI and DHS on October 7, 2016. 49 24 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 51 25 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY D. V. (U) ICA REVIEW: TASKING TO PUBLICATION A. (U) Tasking and Drafting - In a meeting of the NSC on December 6, 2016, President Obama instructed Directo~er to have the Intelligence Community prepare a comprehensive report on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.s3 Director Clapper told the Committee: "I don't think we would have mounted the effort we did, probably, to be honest, in the absence of presidential direction, because that kind of cleared the way on sharing all the accesses." 54 The President directed that the report include everything the IC knew about Russian~rence in the 2016 elections. In addition, the tasking included providing the IC's understanding of the historical context of Russian interference in U.S. political processes, focusing on the 2008 and 2012 elections. The presidential tasking also requested recommendations on how to prevent interference in the future and how to strengthen electoral systems.ss Finally, the instruction was to have a version available to brief Congress, and also a declassified version releasable to the public. The President requested this product be completed 52 53 (U) Chronology and dates for the drafting of the ICA draw from many interviews conducted by the Committee. 54 (U) SSCI Transcript of the Interview with James Clapper, Fonner Director of National Intelligence, July 17, 2017, p. 53. 55 (U) SSCI Transcript of the Interview with [NIO fo r Russia and Eurasia] and [NIO for Cyber Issues], May 9, 2017, p. 8. 26 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY by the end of his Administration, January 20, 2017. There was no document memorializing this presidential direction. The same day, Director Clapper passed the President's verbal direction to the National Intelligence Council (NIC), specifically the National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Russia and Eurasia, Julia Gurganus, and the NIO for Cyber Issues, Vlnh Nguyen. 56 The NIO for Russia and Eurasia and the NIO for Cyber Issues held a community to discuss the tasking, assignment of responsibilities, 'ect. 56 (U) SSCI Transcript of che Interview with [NIO for Russia and Eurasia] and [NIO for Cyber Issues], May 9, 2017, p. 10. 57 (U) SSCI Transcript of the Interview with [NIO for Russia and Eurasia] and [NIO for Cyber Issues], May 9, 2017, pp. 22-23, 32. 27 - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY FBI assigned two counterintelligence analysts to the ICA team, 58 • • 0 0 0 0 0 • 58 (U) Interview with Bill Priestap, Assistant Director, Counterintelligence Division, FBI, April 13, 2017; Interview with [Section Chief, Counterintelligence Analysis Section, CD-1, FBI] April 21, 2017. The Section Chief of Analysis was Jonathan Moffa. 59 28 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 60 • 62 (U SSCI Thanscript of the Interview with [NIO for Russia and Eurasia] and [NIO for Cyber Issues], May 9, 2017, pp. 38-39,48-49. 63 29 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 65 (U) NIO for Russia and Eurasia, SSCI Thanscript of the Interview with [NIO for Russia and Eurasia] and [NIO for Cyber Issues], May 9, 2017, p. 86. 66 (U) Ibid., pp. 38-39. 67 (U) SSCI Thanscript of the Interview with National Security Agency Panel, May 18, 2017, p. SO. 68 (U) Ibid. , pp. 66-73. 69 (U) NIO for Russia and Eurasia, ibid., May 9, 2017, pp. 72-73. 70 (U) NIO for Cyber Issues, ibid., May 9, 2017, p. 65. 71 (U) NIO for Cyber Tssues, ibid., pp. 74. 30 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 72 (U) SSCI Transcript of the Interview with National Security Agency Panel, May 18, 2017, pp. 52-55. 73 31 - COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMI'ITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY B. (U) Confidence Level Debate Over One Judgment 77 U) SSCI Transcript o e Interview wi Admiral Michael S. Rogers, USN, Director, National Security Agency, and Commander, U.S. Cyber Command, March 19, 2018, p. 58. 78 (U) Ibid., pp. 62-65. 79 (U) Ibid., p. 61. 80 (U) Ibid., p. 60. 32 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITrEE SENSmVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 81 (U) Ibid., p. 53. ("One guy speaks for NSA.") 82 (U) Ibid., p. 82. 83 (U) SSCI Transcript of the Interview with James Clapper, Fonner Director of National Intelligence, July 17, 2017, p. 54. In November 2016, the transition team invited Admiral Rogers to New York to inteiview for the DNI position. Admiral Rogers told the Committee that he met with the President-elect ("did a job interview, went back to my job . .. [w)hich had zero impact on anything I have ever done)." Admiral Rogers also told the Committee that he consulted with his lawyer and spoke with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff before going to the interview. See SSCI Transcript of the Interview with Admiral Michael S. Rogers, USN, Director, National Security Agency, and Commander, U.S. Cyber Command, March 19, 2018, p. 104. 84 85 86 87 (U) SSCI Transcript o t e Interview with Admiral Michael S. Rogers, USN, Director, National Security Agency, and Commander, U.S. Cyber Command, March 19, 2018, p. 54. 33 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - 88 (U) Ibid., p. 61. 89 (U) SSCI Transcript of the Interview with National Security Agency Panel, May 18, 2017, pp. 52-53. 90 34 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 35 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 103 (U) Agency, 104 (U) 105 (U) Ibid., p. 72. Ibid., p. 70. SSCI Transcript of the Interview with Admiral Michael S. Rogers, USN, Director, National Security and Commander, U.S. Cyber Command, March 19, 2018, p. 66. Ibid., p. 67. Ibid., p. 68. 36 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 37 - COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY C. (U) Discussion of the "Steele Reporting" in the ICA The Committee reviewed the debate over whether and where to include the Steele materials with all participants to the drafting of the ICA. In the first meeting of the Committee with Assistant Director for the Counterintelligence Division (AD/CD) of the FBI, he articulated the FBI's concerns. First was the directive from the President to include all the information the IC had on Russian involvement in the 2016 presidential election, and this included material that FBI held. Even though the Assistant Director suggested that "the FBI didn't want to stand behind it," it qualified for this directive. Second, the question immediately became how to handle this information in the drafting of the ICA. This was ultimately resolved by including the information as Annex A, a two-page summary attached only to the most classified version of the ICA (i.e., the "Memorandum to the President" version). 112 FBI officials told the Committee that they "would have had a major problem if Annex A had not been included," and that FBI believed they "had to put everything in." 113 112 (U) Interview wit B. Priestap, Assistant Director, Counterinte ·gence Division, FBI, Ap . 13, 2017. 113 (U) Interview with [Section Chief, Counterintelligence Analysis Section, CD-1, FBI] April 21, 2017. 38 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 114 115 116 117 118 (U) 119 (U) 120 (U) 121 (U) 122 (U) 123 I i ., pp. 76, 78. Ibid., p. 77. Ibid. Ibid. Ibid., p. 78. 39 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - Director Clapper later reiterated to the SSCI in a closed hearing in May 2018: 40 - COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY Director Corney addressed the question of the dossier and its placement when asked by SSCI Chairman Burr whether he "insisted that the dossier be part of the ICA in any way, shape, or form?" Director Corney replied: I insisted that we bring it to the party, and I was agnostic as to whether it was footnoted in the document itself, put as an annex. I have some recollection of talking to John Brennan maybe at some point saying: I don't really care, but I think it is relevant and so ought to be part of the consideration. 131 - - - - - NSA played no role in the debate over the Steele reporting and the ICA. NSA ~e Committee they had "no role in drafting, nor role in its inclusion, no role in reviewing the source material, became aware of it as it was appended." 132 N S A - first 128 (U) Ibid., pp. 60-61. 129 Closed SSCI Hearing with Fonner Intelligence Directors, May 16, 2018, pp. 34-35. 130 131 ( SSCI Transcript o e C os SSC! Hearing with James Corney, Former Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, June 8, 2017, p. 49. 132 (U) SSC! Transcript of the Interview with National Security Agency Panel, May 18, 2017, p. 86. 41 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY heard of the information on December 29 and had no insights into Steele's source network, and the Steele material had no effect on NSA's views of the Key Judgments of the ICA. 133 Admiral Rogers recalled that he heard of this from his team o f - on December 29 while reviewing a draft of the ICA to which this material had been appended. Admiral Rogers's initial reaction was that the Steele information ought not be in the body of the ICA, but "let's put it in the appendix." 134 D. (U) Finalizing the ICA 133 (U) Ibid. 134 (U) SSCI Transcript of the Interview with Admiral Michael S. Rogers, USN, Director, National Security Agency, and Commander, U.S. Cyber Command, March 19, 2018, pp. 69, 71. 135 (U) SSCI Transcript of the Closed Hearing: Former Intel Directors Panel on Russian Interference, May 16, 2018, p. 107. 136 (U) NIO for Russia and Eurasia, SSCI Transcript of the Interview with [NIO for Russia and Eurasia] and [NIO for Cyber Issues], May 9, 2017, pp. 90, 92. 137 (U) Ibid., p. 93. 138 42 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY From December 30, 2016, through January 5, 2017, the NIOs hosted several meetings and SVTCs to produce the of the Memorandum to the President. (U) While noting details of disagreement in content and confidence levels as reviewed above, the Committee heard no significant criticisms or objections to the ICA process, or the resulting paper, from all the analysts, managers, and agency heads interviewed. Every witness interviewed believed the collaboration was transparent and professionally candid, including disagreements over confidence levels. Every witness interviewed by the Committee stated that he or she saw no attempts or pressure to politicize the findings. (U) The Committee asked about the lack of recommendations, how the process compared with other ICA productions, how additional time would have benefited this ICA 140 141 142 (U) NIO or Russia an Eurasia, SSCI Transcript o t e Interview with [NIO for Russia and Eurasia] and [NIO for Cyber Issues], May 9, 2017, pp. 121-122. 143 (U) Ibid., p. 124. 43 - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY exercise, and how and whether the counterintelligence question was handled during the ICA process. The President's original tasking included a request for recommendations about protecting electoral infrastructure and responding to foreign interference in the future. All witnesses interviewed by the Committee stated the position that the IC does not make policy recommendations. The NIO for Russia and Eurasia stated, "that's an area we don' t touch," while noting that the final "Memorandum to the President" included, as a separate document (but not an annex), an unclassified, eleven-page paper produced by DHS, FBI, and the Department of Commerce 's National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST), titled "Recommendations: Options to Protect and Defend US Election Infrastructure and US Political Parties." NIO for Russia and Eurasia stated there was no input to this document from anyone writing the ICA. 144 The NIO for Russia and Eurasia was mindful of the President's full direction and stated that she reached out to both the National Security Council (NSC) and the Department of State's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) in the period after the first complete draft was presented on December 19 and presented a deadline to submit policy recommendations by December 27. The NIO received no responses. 145 The other key difference in this process, according to the NIO for Russia and Eurasia, was dealing with discussion of U.S . persons. The NIO noted, "[d]ay to day, we do not deal with U.S persons in any way." The participants in the process even debated whether to 144 (U) Ibid., p. 112. 145 (U) Ibid., p. 113. 146 (U) NIO for Cyber Issues, ibid. , pp. 61-64. 44 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY name the two leading candidates. Regarding the option of leaving the candidates unidentified, NIO for Russia and Eurasia concluded this made "no sense ... but that felt uncomfortable, I think, for a lot of us." 147 Noting the imperative of the tight deadline, the Committee asked how additional time would have affected the quality of the ICA. The NIO for Russia and Eurasia responded that it would have allowed the opportunity to 146 NIO for Cyber Issues stated: [More time would have helped] to collate FBI information in terms of the changes because their reporting and the reporting from private industry s a long time. ... You can see in the paper the line where we say , we could have because we something more complete. - 147 (U) 148 (U) 149 (U) 150 (U) NIO for Russia and Eurasia also believed more time would have allowed for: NIO for Russia and Eurasia, ibid., p. 102. Ibid., pp. 103-104. NIO for Cyber Issues, ibid., p. 103. NIO for Russia and Eurasia, ibid. 45 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIBE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - The Committee asked the NIOs who worked on the ICA how they handled the questio~ther activities were being coordinated between the Russian government and the Trump Campaign. The NIO for Russia and Eurasia responded that "it did not come up . . .. We didn't have any evidence for that. There was not information that pointed us in that direction." The NIO for Cyber Issues stated "[w ]e rely on our FBI colleagues to bring it up. But it was not discussed." 153 As noted elsewhere, neither the Fusion Cell members nor the !CA authors were read into the FBI's investigation. VI. (U) ICA REVIEW: KEY JUDGEMENTS (U) The Committee finds that the IC met President Obama's primary tasking and that the !CA is a sound intelligence product. While the Committee had to rely on the agencies that the sensitive information and accesses had been accurately reported, as part of its review the Committee examined analytic procedures and interviewed analysts, managers, and senior intelligence officers who wrote and oversaw the production and who were well-versed with the information. These findings are based on these interviews as well as a detailed review of the entire body of finished intelligence reporting used to substantiate the !CA. (U) In all the interviews of those who drafted and prepared the ICA, the Committee heard consistently that analysts were under no politically motivated pressure to reach specific conclusions. All analysts expressed that they were free to debate, object to content, and assess confidence levels, as is normal and proper for the analytic process. A. (U) On the Key Judgments of the December 2016 ICA 1. (U) Russian Efforts to Influence the 2016 Election (U) The ICA states: Russian efforts to influence the 2016 presidential election represent the most recent expression of Moscow's longstanding desire to undermine the U.S.-led liberal democratic order, but these activities demonstrated a significant 46 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY escalation in directness, level of activity, and scope of effort compared to previous operations. (U) The ICA revealed the elements of a comprehensive and multifaceted Russian campaign against the United States as it was understood by the U.S. Intelligence Community at the end of 2016. The intelligence presented supports the judgment that the Russian campaign "demonstrated a significant escalation in directness, level of activity, and scope of effort compared to previous operations." (U) However, the Committee found the ICA's treatment of the historical context of Russian interference in U.S. domestic politics limited. 2. (U) Russian Leadership Intentions 47 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY (U) The Committee found that the ICA provided a range of all-source reporting to support these assessments. (U) The Committee found that specific intelligence as well as open source assessments support the assessment that President Putin approved and directed aspects of this influence campaign. (U) Further, a body of reporting, to include different intelligence disciplines, open source reporting on Russian leadership policy preferences, and Russian media content, showed that Moscow sought to denigrate then-candidate Clinton. (U) The Committee found that the ICA presents information from public Russian leadership commentary, Russian state media reports, and specific intelligence reporting to support the assessment that Putin and the Russian Government demonstrated a preference for candidate Trnmp. (U) Russia leadership intentions is the only assessment in the ICA that had different confidence levels between the participating agencies-the CIA and FBI assessed with "high confidence" and the NSA assessed with "moderate confidence"-so the Committee gave this section additional attention. The Committee finds that the analytic disagreement was reasonable, transparent, and openly debated among the agencies and analysts, with analysts, managers, and agency heads on both sides of the confidence level reasonably justifying their positions. 3. (U) Multifaceted Russian Influence Operations 48 - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 49 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY (U) The Committee found that the ICA presents a detailed assessment of the elements that comprised the influence campaign, (U) While the ICA cites examples of Russian media in 2016, its analysis of RT (formerly Russia Today) and Sputnik is dated, and the ICA does not provide an updated assessment of this Russian capability in 2016, which the Committee found to be a shortcoming in the ICA, as this is information that was available in open sources. 4. (U) The Threat from Future Russian Influence Operations (U) Since January 2017, the Committee has discovered additional examples of Russia's attempt to sow discord, undermine democratic institutions, and interfere in U.S. elections. The Committee also has reviewed intelligence demonstrating Russia's efforts to interfere in the elections of our allies as well as countries Russia perceives to be in its sphere of influence. B. (U) Counterintelligence Investigations (U) The ICA did not attempt to address ongoing investigations, to include whether Russian intelligence services attempted to recruit sources with access to any campaign. All individuals the Committee interviewed stated that the Steele material did not in any way inform the analysis in the !CA-including the key judgments-because it was unverified information and had not been disseminated as serialized intelligence reporting. The material was instead included in Annex A of the compartmented ICA. C. (U) The Unfinished Work of Intelligence 50 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMI1TEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY (U) The Committee notes that, as is the case with all intelligence questions, information continues to be gathered and analyzed. The Committee finds the conclusions of the ICA are sound, and is reassured by the fact that collection and analysis subsequent to the ICA's publication continue to reinforce its assessments. D. (U) Intelligence Cited in the ICA (U) The I CA has. footnotes. Source documents for the footnotes include: 154 • • • From FBI-intelligence reports cited fifty-one times, including FBI Intelligence Information Reports (IIRs) "Letterhead Memorandum" (LHM), which is an FBI manner for form ly assem g intelligence reporting on various topics; and records of victim notifications. 156 SSCI Transcript of the Closed Hearing on Russian Active Measures Against the U.S. Political System, January 10, 2017, pp. 16-19. 157 (U) Ibid., pp. 10-13. 51 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • • • VII. (U) ICA Review: Section-by-Section • : Putin Ordered Campaign To Influence I: • Analytic Line Russian Campaign Was This section had five sub-headings: o • Cyber Espionage Against U.S. Political Organizations o Public Disclosures of Russian-Collected Data o Russian Cyber Intrusions Into State Electoral Infrastructure o 0 - Russian Propaganda Efforts 52 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • . . . .ine I :Influence Effort Was Boldest Yet in the U.S . • • - Analytic Line : Election Operation Signals "New Normal " In Russian Influence Efforts A. Analytic Line I: Putin Ordered Campaign to Influence U.S. Election (U) The Committee found that reporting from multiple intelligence disciplines was used as evidence to support this analytic line, and that the analytic tradecraft was transparent. 53 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMI'ITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 1. (U) Discussion a. (U) Open Source Reporting 160 54 - COMMI'ITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • • • • 55 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY b• • • • 56 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMlITEE SENSmVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY c. (U) NSA Reporting • • 57 - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • d. (U) FBI Reporting 173 (U) NIO or Cy er Issues, SSCI 'Transcript o Cyber Issues], May 9, 2017, p. 40. 174 ( ) FBI, IIR 4 212 083417, November 2, 2016 11, 2016 58 FBI, IIR 4 212 0168 17, October - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY d. (U) CIA Reporting i. 59 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 60 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 185 186 187 61 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMI'ITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 188 189 62 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY ION ONLY COMMI 190 191 192 193 194 63 COMMITTEE SENSITIVE RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY iii. 195 64 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 65 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 66 - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 2. (U) On Putin Directing the Active Measures • 67 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 208 209 68 COMMITTEE SENSITIVE RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY b. • • • 210 69 - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 211 212 70 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 213 214 (U) NIO or Cy er Issues, SSCI Transcript o Cyber Issues], May 9, 2017, pp. 77-78. 215 (U) NIO for Russia and Eurasia, ibid., p. 79. 71 - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 216 (U) NIO for Cyber Issues, ibid., p. 81. 217 (U) NIO for Russia and Eurasia, ibid., pp. 82-83. 218 (U) SSCI Transcript of the Interview with National Security Agency Panel, May 18, 2017, pp. 29-30. 219 72 - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 73 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 223 74 - COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 75 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY c. • 229 230 231 232 233 76 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • • 77 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • • • • 236 2::\7 78 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • 238 239 79 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY d. • 240 241 80 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • 81 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY B. - Analytic Line I: Russian Campaign Was Multifaceted • • • • 1. - Introduction 82 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY (U) The Committee found that this section is supported and substantiated by multiple intelligence disciplines. The cited sources support logically defensible conclusions, and their use is consistent with proper analytic standards. The Committee found that the analysis does not exceed the evidence presented • 252 83 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY a. - On Putin's Role • • 84 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • • 256 257 258 85 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 86 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY The term "neighbors" is nomenclature the Russian intelligence services have used to refer to each other going back to the 1930s. 263 263 (U) See, e.g., Weinstein an Vass· 'ev, The Haunted Wood (1999) (describing Soviet intelligence activities in the U.S. during the Stalin era and drawing on Soviet intelligence services archives accessible in the 1990s). 264 (U) SSCI Transcript of the Closed Hearing on Russian Active Measures Against the U.S. Political System, January 10, 2017, pp. 14-15. 265 (U) NIO for Russia and Eurasia, SSCI Transcript of the Interview with [NIO for Russia and Eurasia] and [NIO for Cyber Issues], May 9, 2017, pp.79-80. 87 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY b. (U) On Russia's Influence Capabilities "Moscow's campaign aimed at the U.S. election reflected years of investment in its capabilities, which Moscow has honed in the former Soviet states." - 88 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIBE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 89 - COMMITIBE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY c. (U) On the Challenge of Attributing Moscow's Actions 275 276 277 278 90 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 2. • Sub-topic: Cyber Espionage Against U.S. Political Organizations (U) The Committee found that this sub-topic is supported and substantiated by multiple intelligence disciplines. The cited sources support logically defensible conclusions, and their use is consistent with proper analytic standards. 279 91 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMI1TEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY a. b. (U) GRU Operations 92 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 93 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 94 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 95 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 3. (U) The Committee found that this sub-topic is supported and substantiated by multiple intelligence disciplines. The cited sources support logically defensible conclusions, and their use is consistent with proper analytic standards. a. (U) NSA Reporting 300 (U) Department o Justice, 0 ·ce o Inspector Gener , A Review of Various Actions by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Justice in Advance of the 2016 Election, classified Appendix One, July 2018. 301 96 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 302 303 304 305 306 97 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY b. (U) Open Source Reporting 98 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY c. (U) CIA Reporting 99 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGA'FION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 4. Sub-topic: Russian Cyber Intrusions Into State Electoral Infrastructure (U) The Committee found that this sub-topic cites multiple intelligence disciplines. With the limited exception of certain FBI materials, the sources cited support logically defensible conclusions that are consistent with proper analytic standards. The Committee found that while FBI material is used for most citations, some FBI rep~erenced vary in relevance and transparency, and one FBI report is missing. 315 316 317 100 COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITfEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY a. (U) CIA Reporting 318 319 101 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY b. (U) NSA Reporting c. (U) FBI Reporting Nine FBI reports are used to support language about specific Russian intelligence activities targeting the U.S . electoral system as well as cyber intrusions in the U.S. The most extensive report supports the ICA assessment that 320l!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!ll!!!!!!I••• 321 322 323 102 - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY Other FBI reports submitted for this section include four reports cited for the ICA bu~ch states: 103 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY reporting cited includes an unclassi ied email with an unprinted zip · e attachment, and therefore cannot be judged to support the ICA language. 328 The other footnote to this statement cites a document missing in both copies of supporting materials provided to the Committee. 329 Therefore, the Committee cannot verify if the information cited supports the ICA language. d. 104 COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 105 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 5. - Sub-topic: Russian Propaganda Efforts (U) The Committee found that analysts draw inferences from open source reporting in this sub-topic. (U) The Committee found that CIA, FBI, and NSA reporting is properly used to support this section, and this sub-topic expounds on the propaganda element in the Russian influence campaign in 2016. The use of sources, except where noted, supports logically defensible conclusions that are consistent with proper analytic standards. a. (U) Open Source Reporting 106 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY (U) Throughout this section, open source reporting supports the text in the ICA, with the following notable exceptions. b. (U) CIA Reporting 107 - COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 108 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY c. (U) NSA Reporting 109 COMMITTEE SENSITIVE RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 110 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY C. - Analytic Line I: Influence Effort Was Boldest Yet in the US I· (U) The Committee found that this section logically follows Analytic Line and is supported and substantiated by multiple intelligence disciplines. As above, the cited sources support logically defensible conclusions, and their use is consistent with proper analytic standards. (U) The Committee acknowledges that the purpose of the ICA was not to present a comprehensive historical perspective, and that the authors were working under significant time constraint, yet the direction received from the President asked for context for the 2016 election by looking at foreign interference in the 2008 and 2012 elections. (U) The Committee notes there is no historical precedent for the use of cyber intrusions followed by release of stolen information (i.e., hacks and leaks) used in combination with other elements of state activity for the purposes of an active measures campaign against the United States. However, the ICA's treatment of the historical context of Russian interference in U.S. 350 351 352 is FBI IIR 4 212 0318 17, pu ·s e Octo er 17, 2016; 870916, pu ·s e Septem er 23, 2016;- - is FBI IIR 4 212 0405 17, publis e 353 (. . _ FBT TTR 4 212 0405 17~ctober 20, 2018. 111 is FBI IIR 4 212 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY domestic politics is limited, and the over-redacted FBI references in the ICA source book make the assessments in this section difficult to substantiate. 112 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY Of the other four separate FBI reports, three are heavily redacted. In each case, the reports put in the source book include several blank pages with no dates or headings, and isolated paragraphs that refer obliquely to the examples of possible historic active measures cited in this section of the ICA, ranging from 1984 to 1999. 357 D. 355 (U) Ibid. 356 ~ FBI, IIR 4212366812, February 27, 2012 357~1, Internal report, November 16, 1999 FBI, Internal report, October 8, 1991; FBI, Internal report, March 12, 1984. The document provi e to e Committee for the November 16, 1999 reference and the October 8, 1991 reference are each seven pages, five of which are blank and two of which include an excerpted paragraph of text. The March 12, 1984 reference includes nine blank pages and two pages which have an excerpted paragraph. 358 (~ FBI, IIR 4 212 2510 09, January 13, 2 0 0 9 - - Scott Shane and Charlie Savage, "ln OrCtinary"Ll'ves, U.S. Sees the Work of Russian Agents,''~une 28, 2010 113 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 1. (U) NSA Reporting 359 114 - COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMI'ITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 2. (U) FBI Reporting • , October 18, 2016 . 115 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 3. (U) CIA Reporting 363 As previously discussed, the Steele material was summarized in Annex A of the ICA, "Additional Reporting From an FBI Source on Russian Influence Efforts." The reports in the Steele material are labeled "company reports," which the FBI cite as such in their LHM under the designation "CROWN." 364 FBI, LHM. Decem er 27, 2016 116 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 117 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY E. - Analytic Line ~eEfforts I: Election Operation Signals "New Normal" In Russian (U) The Committee found that multiple intelligence disciplines are used to support this analytic line, the analytic tradecraft is transparent, and the sources support the language of the ICA, except where noted. (U) While the Committee notes that "new normal" is an imprecise term, the Committee found that this section convincingly argues that Russia's use of active measures to target 371 118 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY elections has been widely applied outside the United States over the past decade. (U) The analytic line on "new normal" serves as both prediction and warning, and the Committee notes that IC and open source reporting has revealed much evidence to reinforce the IC's 2016 assessments. Th~ final analytic line of the ICA states: We assess Moscow will apply lessons learned from its campaign aimed at the U.S. presidential election to future inf1.uence efforts in the U.S. and worldwide. We assess the Russian intelligence services would have seen their election inf1.uence because of as at least a qualified success their perceived ability to impact public discussion in the U.S. 1. (U) CIA Reporting 372 119 - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 120 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 121 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 122 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 2. (U) NSA Reporting 123 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 3. (U) DIA Reporting 124 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 4. (U) Open Source Reporting (U) Four open source articles are cited in this section, beginning with a reprise of the 125 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSmVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 5. (U) Department of State Reporting 6. (U) DHS Reporting VIII. 126 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • • IX. (U) The ICA Annexes (U) The ICA includes an unclassified, twelve-page addendum that provides recommendations jointly prepared by DHS, FBI, and the NIST to protect U.S. election infrastructure and political entities. (U) The addendum represents a partial response to the original presidential tasking for the ICA, which included a request for recommendations. According to Director Clapper, "[ w ]hat we ended up doing was focusing on the cyber things that could be done. That's what generated separately on an unclassified basis the best practices paper that DHS and FBI did." 402 (U) The Committee addresses election security issues in Volume 1 of this report, including some of the recommendations made in this annex. A. 402 (U) SSCI Transcript of the Interview with James Clapper, Former Director of National Intelligence, July 17, 2017, p. 42. 127 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY Annex A includes qualifiers for the Steele material, but does not mention the private clients who paid for Steele's work. The Committee found no evidence that analysts working on the ICA were aware of the political provenance of the Steele material. B. 403 404 128 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 129 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 130 - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 131 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY I: C. (~ Annex Open Source Center Analysis: Russia-Kremlin's TV Seeks To Influence Politics, Fuel Discontent in US, Published December 12, 2012 (U) Annex I is referred to in the section in the ICA on "Russian Propaganda Efforts." It is a nine-page unclassified report produced by the Open Source Center (OSC, now Open Source Enterprise, OSE) in 2012. The NIO for Russia and Eurasia characterized this report to the Committee as an "off-the-shelf OSE product from 2012." 424 It was not updated until after the publication of the ICA. 425 I (U) Annex introduces the role of Russian social media only near the end, and provides a graphic of "comparative social media footprint" contrasting RT and RT America with Al Jazeera English, BBC World, CNN, and CNN International social media broadcasting. However, it does so without proper contextualization for the platforms highlighted (YouTube, Twitter, Facebook). Further, the product includes statements such as, "[a]ccording to market research company Nielsen, RT had the most rapid growth (40%) among all international news channels in This statement could be interpreted to imply the United States over the past year." media prominence greater than it actu~this was only a measure of YouTube views, which are a distinct subcategory of "all informational news channels." This product makes no mention of the Internet Research Agency or Russia's use of social media trolls, the latter of which the Russian Government had already developed by 2012. 132 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY (U) The Committee believes this annex, while providing a historical snapshot of one aspect of Russian propaganda in 2012, does nol contribute to understanding Russian interference in the 2016 election. Recognizing that the ICA's authors were working under a compressed time table, the presentation of the multifaceted aspects of the Russian interference campaignspecifically, the use of RT, Sputnik, other Russian media platforms, social media, and trolls, as part of the propaganda element of the influence campaign-would have been much stronger with an updated OSE annex. D. E. F. G. 426 (U) NIO fo r Russia and Eurasia, SSCI Transcript of the Interview with [NIO fo r Russia and Eurasia] and [NIO for Cyber Issues], May 9, 2017, p. 16. 427 133 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY H. (U) Annex (U) Annex I: Estimative Language I is standard language that is attached to NIC products. 134 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 135 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 428 429 U) I i ., pp. 35-37. 430 (U) SSCI Transcript of the Closed Hearing: Former Intel Directors Panel on Russian Interference, May 16, 2018, pp. 18-19. 136 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 431 432 433 434 435 137 - COMMI1TEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 436 437 438 439 (U) I i ., p. 45. MO .. Ml M2 138 - COMMITI'EE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 443 444 (U) l i ., pp. 29-30. 445 (U) Ibid., p. 59. 446 (U) Ibid., p. 60. 139 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 447 (U) Ibid. 448 (U) Ibid., pp. 61-62. 449 (U) Ibid., pp. 59-63. 450 451 140 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 141 - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 142 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY 143 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY (U) APPENDIX B: CIA ANALYSIS ON RUSSIAN ACTIVE MEASURES-1981-1991, 2016 A. (U) Historical Analysis-1981-1991 As noted in the Committee's report, the Committee believes that the ICA and its supporting sources do not provide a satisfactory representation of Russian interference in the two previous presidential elections, as requested in the original POTUS tasking. Noting the lack of information provided to support the ICA on this issue, the Committee could not determine whether this was due to a lack of collection, or the failure of the three agencies, particularly the FBI, which holds primary responsibility for counterintelligence threats to U.S. domestic targets, to access historical reporting or produce finished analysis. As noted in the Committee's report, FBI support for the historical record presented in the ICA is so redacted as to be largely meaningless to anyone reviewing these reports for the ICA. (U) The authors of the ICA used popular and academic open source reporting for this 459, 460 annex, (U) During this review, the Committee requested that CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence (CSI) search CIA's holdings for analytic products on Russian active measures. • T ese reports emonstrate a body of information known to the IC about Russian active measures, including definitions, organization, goals, types of activities, and leadership direction. None are referenced in the ICA. (U) The following products were provided to the Committee by CSI, and are attached to the Committee's report: • • (U) The Soviet Foreign Propaganda Apparatus, Research Paper, Directorate of Intelligence, Office of Soviet Analysis, April 1986. 144 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • • • • • • (U) For the purpose of highlighting what the CIA knew about the history of Russian active measures, this section organized select excerpts from these products under four themes: • • • • (U) (U) (U) (U) Definitions and Activities of Russian Active Measures; Leadership Direction and Cost Assessment for Russian Active Measures; Goals of Russian Active Measures; and, Understanding Russian Active Measures. (U) Nb: All text under each heading is quoted directly from the product. - • Definitions and Activities ---- - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - 145 - -~----- - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • • • 146 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • • • • • • • - Leadership Direction and Cost Assessment • 147 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • • • • - Goal of Active Measures • • - • 148 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • - Understanding Active Measures • • - - - - -- - - - - - - -- - - -- • • • 149 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • • • • B. (U) National Intelligence Council Report-2016 Nearly 15 years later, the National Intelligence Council prepared the following paper on Russian active measures: • ouncil Report, January 19, 2016. 150 - COMMITIEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY All products previously cited in this appendix are historical intelligence products on Russian active measures from the period 1981-1991, covering the period from when the U.S. made its last concerted effort to confront Russia's use of active measures through the end of the Cold War. This NIC product was produced at the beginning of 2016, with no specific anticipation of the Russian interference to come that year. All text below is quoted directly from the 2016 NIC product. • • • • 151 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • • • • • 152 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY (U) Appendix C: THE COMMITTEE REVIEW PROCESS (U) Committee Access 153 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY The Committee's access to FBI intelligence reports characterized a s . as well as LHMs, was also beyond the norm of regular I did not during several Committee FBI in the course of normal oversight. 154 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY The Committee's review of the ICA involved studying the underlying source documents, interviewing all the relevant directors, managers, and analysts involved in the production of the ICA , and conducting a structured review of the analytic lines of the ICA. (U) The Committee conducted twenty-five interviews and hearings with over forty intelligence officers from the across the IC involved in the ICA process, including the directors of ODNI, CIA, NSA, and FBI. The Committee undertook these interviews for the purpose of evaluating the ICA and the ICA process. Interviews were conducted in SSCI secure spaces and at CIA Headquarters and always included bipartisan representation by the Committee. Almost all interviews were transcribed. The Committee also conducted follow-up discussions and emails on many points for better understanding and clarification, and held other interviews with CIA, FBT, and NSA officers, for better 469 understanding about collection and operating environments on the Russia target. (U) Committee Methodology (U) The Committee evaluated the ICA along two lines. First, the Committee determined whether the ICA met the tasking from the President on December 6, 2016. Second, the Committee reviewed the analytic lines within the ICA, asking the following questions: 155 - COMMITTEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY • (U) Was the analysis supported by the intelligence presented? • (U) Was the analytic tradecraft sound? • (U) Does the Committee accept the analytic line? (U) This report volume represents the detailed examination and conclusions the Committee reached on these questions. 156 - COMMIITEE SENSITIVE - RUSSIA INVESTIGATION ONLY ADDITIONAL VIEWS OF SENATOR WYDEN (U) Over the course of nearly 20 years at the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence I have refused to assume the accuracy of intelligence assessments and have endeavored to always ask the hard questions. That is what this report does, painstakingly scrutinizing every piece of intelligence that went into the Intelligence Community Assessment and allowing the Committee to independently verify the findings of that assessment. The findings are not a "hoax." They are not in doubt because,. as Donald Trump stated, Vladimir Putin very strongly" denies them. Russian interference in the 2016 election is a fact and Donald Trump's deference to Putin only serves to further Russian disinformation and undermine efforts to defend the United States against ongoing attacks. (U) This report also provides additional evidence against Donald Trump s false assertions regarding Ukraine. For example, the Committee conducted an extensive examination of the intelligence demonstrating Russia's intrusions into DNC networks. That review, which confirmed the ICA's findings, is fundamentally incompatible with Trump's conspiracy theories about Ukrainian involvement, for which there is no supporting evidence of any kind. One aspect of the ICA calls for more commentary. The ICA cites OHS' s assessment that "the types of systems we observed Russian actors targeting or compromising are not involved in vote tallying." In my Minority Views to Volume I of the Committee s investigation, I discussed confidence levels in and gaps related to DHS's assessment, as acknowledged at the Committee' s June 21 , 2017, hearing. This report adds additional context, quoting a DHS emai I that requested that the Department's assessment be "couched with references to intelligence gaps and ongoing forensic investigations,' caveats that were not included in the public version of the ICA. (U) The limitations associated with this aspect of the ICA provide important lessons regarding intelligence collection and analysis and the topic of election security. All-source intelligence must be integrated with information collected by DHS to produce coordinated IC-wide assessments. Analytic tradecraft related to confidence levels and dissents must be applied. And limits on DHS 's ability to track attacks must be addressed. I have previously discussed the need for nationwide mandated paper ballots, risk-limiting audits and minimum cyber security standards for all election systems. The ongoing failure to require these basic security measures across the country is not just a threat to our democracy, it damages the ability ofDHS and the IC to assess whether, or to what extent U.S . 157 election systems have been compromised. It is the job of the IC to seek to address intelligence gaps, particularly when those gaps hinder assessments related to our most urgent and serious national sect,irity priorities. The actfons ofour adversaries challenge our intelligence capabilities. In this case, in which audits are inadequate, state and local election officials lack the.expertise and resources·to identify sophisticated cyber-attacks, and DHS lacks cpmprehensive, nation-wide infmmation, the hann is partly self.-inflicted. 158