EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LAEDC INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED ECONOMICS (IAE) APRIL 21, 2020 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ESTIMATING IMPACTS REGIONAL AND SECTORAL First appearing in California in late-February, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought business and life to a grinding halt for the past seven weeks. At the writing of this report, over 19,000 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in the 10-county Southern California region, with over 10,000 in Los Angeles County alone. California Governor Gavin Newsom ordered a stay-at-home order March 19th, which the County of Los Angeles reaffirmed on March 22nd. Social distancing measures have been enacted across California, and large gatherings have been banned. All non-essential businesses, which are generally defined as recreational and not critical to maintaining personal well-being, have been closed. Meanwhile, workers in occupations deemed essential during this pandemic must still be physically present to do their work. Those in the postal service, food delivery, grocery, medical and similar fields are continuing to work with the risk of exposing themselves, as well as those with whom they share their homes, to the virus. In light of the dramatic effect that the COVID19 pandemic is having on employment across the United States, the LAEDC’s Institute for Applied Economics has placed its focus on quantifying these impacts for the Southern California region.1 Southern California includes 10 major counties that extend from San Luis Obispo to San Diego, and out to Nevada and Arizona at its farthest East. This region accounted for 10.3 million jobs last year, and includes the important hub of Los Angeles MSA, which itself contributes 6.5 million jobs to the economy. Jobs in the region are spread 1 Rather than focusing on the employment effects within specific industries, which would not permit for assessing the risks of each detailed occupation, this report focuses on occupational groups to determine which occupations have been, and will continue to be, most affected by COVID-19. For example, retailers may have employees in Management, Sales, Production, Transportation, Office and Administration, Legal Occupations and more; by using occupational groups we can identify the underlying components within across the entire spectrum of industry sectors, and as such workers across Southern California are feeling the burden of this pandemic and its adjustments to employment. As a result, we examine each of the region’s eight component metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) and its many occupational groups to determine where the highest numbers of jobs will be lost and where unemployment will be most pronounced. It should be noted that the following estimates are based solely on the initial response to COVID-19 in the Southern California region. All of the uncertainties and changing conditions in terms of job losses, containing the virus, length of stay-at-home orders, consumption levels, supply changes and more, mean that projections and forecasts made in the midst of this crisis could vary from real outcomes. For example, if we had chosen to base our forecast on the assumption that the stay at home order would be lifted and activity would resume at the end of April, but the disruption continued into June, then our projections for this quarter, and the entire year, would be grossly optimistic. Policy responses and other variables affect these forecasts of potential unemployment, and these estimates remain in flux as response action continues and evolves. the industry that are expected to lose jobs, rather than giving an employment prediction for the entire retail industry regardless of its workforce composition. The Standard Occupational Classification system, used by federal government agencies, breaks the workforce into twenty-three major occupational groups, (covering 867 detailed occupations), which are included in this report. 2 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA As such, these estimates should not be used as an argument to reopen businesses or ease social distancing requirements throughout the region. While the projected losses presented in this initial report are alarming, these outcomes would improve under different policy scenarios. With more clarity on the public sector response to COVID-19, which will develop over the coming weeks, we will be able to revise employment estimates to keep up to date with changing policies. Preliminary Projections for May 2020 Year-Over-Year Change -27.2% -26.4% -29.4% -28.0% -27.9% -27.8% -27.4% Bakersfield El Centro San Diego-Carlsbad 3 This major occupational group includes 22 detailed occupations that are broken down into the following five minor occupational groups: retail sales workers; sales representatives, services; sales representatives, wholesale Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim 2 This major occupational group includes 17 detailed occupations that are broken down into the following five minor occupational groups: supervisors of food prep and workers; cooks and food prep workers; food and beverage serving workers; other food prep and serving related workers Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations2 is expected to be the most severely impacted major occupation group in Southern California. Counties in the region have followed directives to close all nonessential businesses, and restaurants and food locations must strictly operate on a takeout or delivery basis only. Due to the ban on dine-in eating and the resulting empty restaurants, those who find themselves out of work are waiters, servers, bartenders, chefs and cooks and more. Employment in May 2020 may decline by 68.8 percent, year-overyear, in this major occupation group, potentially affecting close to 700,000 workers. Other major industries facing great losses are Sales and Related Occupations,3 and Office and Administrative Support Occupations,4 which we will examine later in this report. Santa Maria-Santa Barbara In the Southern California region as a whole, initial projections for the number of jobs lost in May 2020 from May of the previous year (2019) are close to 2,816,700 jobs, an employment decline of -27.4 percent, year-over-year. Employed workers in the region are estimated to number just under 7.5 million, well below May 2019’s total of nearly 10.3 million workers. Initial projections for unemployment in the Southern California region are associated with an unemployment rate that may reach 31.4 percent in May 2020. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario San Luis Obispo-Paso RoblesArroyo Grande Regional Forecast -23.8% Preliminary Projections for May 2020 Year-Over-Year Change San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande -34,100 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario -431,400 Santa Maria-Santa Barbara -53,500 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura -87,900 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim -1,711,900 San Diego-Carlsbad El Centro Bakersfield -407,000 -15,400 -75,400 and manufacturing; other sales and related workers (including real estate brokers, sales engineers, telemarketers, etc.) 4 This major occupation includes 54 detailed positions that are broken down into the following seven minor occupational groups: supervisors of office and admin workers; communications equipment operators; financial clerks; information and record clerks; material recording, scheduling, dispatching, and distrusting workers; secretaries and admin assistants; other office and admin support workers 3 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Of the eight MSAs that make up the Southern California region, unemployment is expected to rise to between 23 percent and 30 percent across the board. The most affected MSA will be San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande. While it had the lowest unemployment rate of the eight MSAs last year at 2.4 percent, this figure is estimated to rise 29.1 percent to 31.5 percent unemployment this May. San Luis Obispo County has a high concentration of jobs in tourism, hospitality and food; all of these sectors will struggle in the coming months from lack of business at what would otherwise be peak season. The food industry in particular, the county’s largest occupation, will experience a 70 percent decline in employment. Meanwhile, there are much fewer workers in the higher-paying job occupational sectors such science, engineering, management and professional positions, which will be relatively less affected. At greatest risk is the El Centro MSA, which contains Imperial County in the southeastern corner of California. The unemployment rate in Imperial County was already high relative to other MSAs in 2019, at 16.5 percent, but with the spread of COVID-19 it is projected to reach 40 percent — nearly 10 percent higher than any other regional projection. Due to its lack of any major cities and relative isolation from California’s business hubs, Imperial County has struggled to expand its economy beyond the public sector and farming. Moreover, travel restrictions have constrained its important border relationship with Mexico, which provides over one billion dollars annually in retail expenditures, as well as investment in the local economy. With nearly a quarter of residents living below the poverty line, rising unemployment will challenge an already distressed region. On the opposite end, Bakersfield MSA is projected to be the least impacted region, with a 23.8 percent decrease in employment; however, the unemployment rate is still estimated to be higher than 30 percent. The Bakersfield MSA, which consists of Kern County, is farther inland and at a prime location for agriculture; it is the only metropolitan statistical area in Southern California where Farming is the largest occupation with nearly 42,000 workers. This sector is only projected to see a loss of 3.3 percent of employment through May. Kern County is also the largest oil-producing county in California and is a nationally significant oil producer. Projections for this report indicate the initial response to COVID-19 in the Southern California region. As oil and gas companies continue to suffer in the coming weeks as a result of the global oil oversupply crisis, job losses in Kern and other oilrich areas of the state are likely to increase. The Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim MSA employed nearly 6.5 million workers last year, more than all other MSAs in Southern California combined. It is estimated that this MSA, which includes Los Angeles County and Orange County, will lose over 1.7 million jobs to reach an unemployment rate of 31.7 percent. The MSA is extremely diverse by employment numbers. Dominant industries include retail, personal care, food, tourism, hospitality and accommodation, which are predicted to suffer significant employment losses; food serving is estimated to be most impacted with over 400,000 lost jobs while retail is forecasted to lose nearly 350,000. Another important sector is transportation, which employ over 500,000 in the MSA. Travel restrictions and the decrease in tourism will have a significant impact on employment in this occupation as time goes on. However, the status of “Los Angeles” as a focus of national and international business activity means that there are also strong sectors in management, business and finance, technology, engineering and legal occupations. These will all withstand the pandemic with estimated job losses only around 5 percent on average, as most workers are able to transition to remote work. Occupational In the face of wide-ranging stay-at-home orders, travel restrictions and closures of nonessential businesses, the impact on employment will vary significantly across occupations and sectors of the Southern California economy. The two major occupational groups projected to lose the largest numbers of jobs are Food Preparing and Serving Related Occupations and Sales and Related Occupations, with estimated employment declines of 694,880 and 582,270 respectively. These are obvious categories of workers due to the closure of all non-essential business and the mandate for food service locations to operate solely on a takeout or delivery basis. 4 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Southern California is home to a significant retail occupation group that employed nearly one million workers last year; this can mainly be attributed to the large number of residents and tourists shopping in the region. The brickand-mortar retail industry was already in a losing battle with online retailers, with notable brands closing locations throughout 2019. Current projections show nearly 60 percent of this major occupation group’s workforce displaced in the short term, but the implications these closures will have are sure to harm the retail industry’s future viability for employment as well. Meanwhile, restaurants, bars and other dining locations are a primary source of employment in Southern California, contributing over one million jobs to the economy. With most bars, coffee shops and full-service restaurants closed and their staff presently out of work, this occupational group is predicted to contract by nearly 70 percent in employment from the previous year. Other occupational groups estimated to suffer heavy losses (by percentage) to their workforce will be: Community and Social Service Occupations5; Arts/ Design/ Entertainment/ Sports/Media Occupations6; and Personal Care and Service Occupations7. Personal Care and Service, which includes workers such as hairdressers, travel agents, childcare workers, and fitness trainers, is estimated to lose 71.5 percent of employment year-over-year, which is the highest out of any occupational group. Due to the high amount of Another staple occupation group of the region, particularly in Los Angeles County, is art, design, entertainment, sports and media. Southern California is home to many internationally recognized and successful sports brands including the Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and USC Trojans. The 2020 Major League Baseball season has been postponed until further notice, museums and entertainment facilities are closed, and although decisions have not yet been made, the cancellation of further sports seasons in the fall would have a dramatic impact on regional economics and employment. Likewise, entertainment is synonymous with Los Angeles, and the suspension of film and television productions (except for animated) will contribute to job losses in the county. Across the region, COVID-19 has had mixed impacts on the region’s 2.3 million “blue-collar” occupations. Construction and extraction; production; transportation and material moving; and installation, maintenance and repair occupations are estimated to suffer employment decreases around 20 percent across the board. Factories in particular may struggle, as some larger plants have chosen to shut down altogether, while others have attempted to impose social distancing Metropolitan Statistical Areas May 2019 Employment May 2020 Projection Projected Job Loss Unemployment May 2019 Unemployment May 2020 -2,816,700 Percent Change 27.40% Southern California 10,272,470 7,455,800 3.60% 31.40% Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim 6,239,710 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario 1,538,390 4,527,780 -1,711,930 -27.40% 3.60% 31.70% 1,107,000 -431,390 -28.00% 3.50% 31.90% San Diego-Carlsbad 1,494,940 1,087,950 -406,990 -27.20% 2.70% 29.80% Bakersfield 316,680 241,270 -75,410 -23.80% 7.20% 30.70% Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura 316,640 228,750 -87,890 -27.80% 3.00% 30.10% Santa Maria-Santa Barbara 191,660 138,140 -53,520 -27.90% 4.00% 29.90% San Luis Obispo-Arroyo Grande 115,890 81,760 -34,130 -29.40% 2.40% 31.50% El Centro 58,560 43,130 -15,430 -26.40% 16.50% 40.40% 5 This major occupational group includes 18 detailed occupations that are broken down into the following two minor occupational groups: Counselors, Social Workers, and Other Community and Social Service Specialists; and Religious Workers 6 close contact that this major group requires, social distancing regulations prevent business from taking place. Though employing just under 250,000 workers, the loss of 175,000 of those jobs is significant. This major occupational group includes 41 detailed occupations that are broken down into the following four minor occupational groups: art and design workers; entertainers and performers, sports and related; media and communications workers; media and communication equipment workers 7 This major occupational group includes 33 detailed occupations that are broken down into the following eight minor occupational groups: supervisors of personal care and service workers; animal care and service workers; entertainment attendants and related workers; funeral service workers; personal appearance workers; baggage porters, bellhops, and concierges; tour travel guides; other personal care and service workers 5 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA requirements during work. Some of these workers have retained work by shifting job duties in response to the pandemic. For example, transportation workers capable of delivering essential goods are high in demand. must be performed on-location and with the public. Higher-skill jobs in business and finance, engineering, the sciences and legal services are much less prone to disruption. Most workers in these industries have transitioned to online work, with company communication done through platforms such as Zoom and Skype. Most of these sectors are estimated to lose fewer than 10 percent of jobs. Management Occupations, accounting for nearly 600,000 jobs in Southern California, are considered relatively sheltered from significant loss. While construction has been categorized as essential business, this is largely in reference to essential infrastructure and development projects. Plumbers, painters, electricians, and similar workers will experience employment declines as home improvement and private projects slow in response to decreased incomes and revenues. In the short term, farming occupations will be slower to see losses. Projections through May anticipate less than 4 percent in job losses relative to May 2019 employment. However, this is likely to increase as supply chains have been interrupted and demand falls. Occupations in healthcare and protective services remain strong in employment, due to their critical importance in the fight against COVID-19. However, there is a notable disparity between Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations,8 which are estimated to decrease in employment by 8.3 percent, and Healthcare Support Occupations9, which are projected to lose 26.3 percent of jobs. The occupations most affected by the pandemic and the restrictions that have accompanied it are those with duties which Southern California Occupation May 2019 Employment May 2020 Projection Projected Job Loss Percent Change All 10,272,470 7,455,778 -2,816,692 -27.4% Management 591,550 562,388 -29,162 -4.9% Business and Financial Operations 589,760 503,784 -85,976 -14.6% Computer and Mathematical 264,130 253,676 -10,454 -4.0% Architecture and Engineering 194,190 184,512 -9,678 -5.0% Life, Physical, and Social Science 93,490 88,934 -4,556 -4.9% Community and Social Service 183,960 77,242 -106,718 -58.0% Legal 83,990 74,839 -9,151 -10.9% Educational Instruction and Library 625,620 493,917 -131,703 -21.1% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 222,770 107,061 -115,709 -51.9% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 510,760 465,886 -44,874 -8.8% Healthcare Support 585,290 431,253 -154,037 -26.3% Protective Service 250,310 232,196 -18,114 -7.2% 1,009,750 314,869 -694,881 -68.8% Building and Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 288,000 272,502 -15,498 -5.4% Personal Care and Service 244,960 69,780 -175,180 -71.5% Food Preparation and Serving Related Sales and Related 994,990 412,718 -582,272 -58.5% 1,317,290 1,095,741 -221,549 -16.8% Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 83,880 81,033 -2,847 -3.4% Construction and Extraction 392,550 306,796 -85,754 -21.8% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 316,780 258,043 -58,737 -18.5% Production 529,700 439,169 -90,531 -17.1% Transportation and Material Moving 898,750 729,439 -169,311 -18.8% Office and Administrative Support *Showing totals for all of Southern California 8 This major occupational group includes 72 detailed occupations that are broken down into the following three minor occupational groups: Healthcare diagnosing or treating practitioners; health technologists and technicians; and other healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 9 This major occupational group includes 18 detailed occupations that are broken down into the following three minor occupational groups: home health, care aides and nursing assistants; occupational therapy and physical therapist assistants and aides; and other healthcare support occupations, such as massage therapists, and medical/dental assistants. 6 SOUTHERN CA PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT IMPACT (MAY 2020) The 10-county Southern California region10 is projected to experience 31.4% unemployment in May 2020. There is a projected loss of 2,816,700 jobs from one year ago (-27.4%). The occupations with the largest losses will be Food Preparation and Serving, Sales, and Office and Administrative Support. The occupation with the greatest losses by employment percentage will be Personal Care and Service (-71.5%). Southern California’s largest major occupation group is Office and Administrative Support, which is estimated to lose 221,500 jobs year-over-year for a 16.8% decrease in employment. When combined with Food Preparation and Serving and Sales, the top three regional major groups by employment will lose nearly 1.5 million jobs combined. African American 6.3% Race & Ethnicity of Workforce, 2018 Hispanic 40.3% White 37.1% Asian 13.9% All Other Races, 2.4% Age of Workforce, 2018 <21, 22-24, 5.7% 6.3% 25-34, 23.8% 35-44 21.6% 55-64 15.8% 45-54 20.4% 65+ 6.4% Educational Attainment of Workforce, 2018 < HS 19.2% High School 19.4% Some College/ Associate 25.8% Bachelor's or Advanced Degree 23.6% Edu N/A (> 24 yrs) 12.0% Greatest Occupational Losses (Southern CA) 2019 2020f -694,900 Jobs (-68%) Food Preparation and Serving 314,900 Related Labor Force 10,659,940 10,871,100 Sales and Related 412,700 Unemployment Rate 10,272,420 3.6% 7,455,500 31.4% Personal Care and Service Transportaion and Material Moving -582,300 Jobs (-59%) 994,990 1,095,740 Office and Administrative Support May Employment 1,009,750 -221,600 Jobs (-17%) 1,317,300 69,800 -175,200 Jobs (-72%) 244,960 729,400 898,750 May 2020 Projection -169,300 Jobs (-19%) May 2019 Emp 10 Southern California is defined as the total of the following counties: San Diego, Imperial, Riverside, Orange, San Bernardino, Los Angeles, Ventura, Kern, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo. 7 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Projected Jobs Lost by Occupational Group, May 2020 -700,000 -600,000 -500,000 -400,000 -300,000 -200,000 -100,000 0 Food Preparation and Serving Related -69% Sales and Related -59% Office and Administrative Support -17% Personal Care and Service -72% -19% Transportation and Material Moving -26% Healthcare Support Educational Instruction and Library -21% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media -52% -58% Community and Social Service Production -17% Median Annual Income Business and Financial Operations -15% Construction and Extraction -22% -19% < $30,000 $30,000 - $49,999 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Healthcare Practitioners and Technical -9% $50,000 - $75,000 Management -5% > $75,000 Protective Service -7% -5% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Computer and Mathematical -4% PAYROLL JOB IMPACTS BY OCCUPATION GROUP Occupation All Occupations May 2019 Emp May 2020 Projection Projected Job Loss % Change 10,272,470 7,455,800 -2,816,700 -27.4% Business and Financial Operations 589,760 503,800 -86,000 -14.6% Architecture and Engineering 194,190 184,500 -9,700 -5.0% Community and Social Service 183,960 77,200 -106,700 -58.0% Educational Instruction and Library 625,620 493,900 -131,700 -21.1% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 222,770 107,100 -115,700 -51.9% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 510,760 465,900 -44,900 -8.8% Healthcare Support 585,290 431,300 -154,000 -26.3% Protective Service 250,310 232,200 -18,100 -7.2% 1,009,750 314,900 -694,900 -68.8% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 288,000 272,500 -15,500 -5.4% Personal Care and Service 244,960 69,800 -175,200 -71.5% Sales and Related 994,990 412,700 -582,300 -58.5% 1,317,290 1,095,700 -221,600 -16.8% 83,880 81,000 -2,900 -3.4% Construction and Extraction 392,550 306,800 -85,800 -21.8% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 316,780 258,000 -58,700 -18.5% Production 529,700 439,200 -90,500 -17.1% Transportation and Material Moving 898,750 729,400 -169,300 -18.8% Food Preparation and Serving Related Office and Administrative Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry *Only select occupations shown, totals may not sum. 8 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES-ANAHEIM MSA PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT IMPACT (MAY 2020) The Los Angeles - Long Beach - Anaheim metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which consists of Los Angeles County and Orange County, is projected to experience 31.7% unemployment in May 2020. This equates to a projected loss of 1,711,900 jobs from one year ago (-27.4%). Race & Ethnicity of Workforce, 2018 Hispanic 39.2% All Other Races 2.4% African Asian American 16.0% 6.8% White 35.7% Educational Attainment of Workforce, 2018 The occupations with the largest losses are estimated be Food Preparation and Serving, Sales and Office and Administrative Support. The occupation with the greatest losses by employment percentage is forecasted to be Personal Care and Service (-71.6%). The MSA’s largest major occupation group is Office and Administrative Support, which is estimated to lose 140,000 jobs year-over-year for a 16.8% decrease in employment. Overall, four of the top five major groups by employment are forecasted to lose over 100,000 jobs, with Sales and Food Preparation and Serving losing over 300,000 each. 2019 2020f < HS 18.7% High School 18.9% 6,472,730 6,632,800 22-24 6.0% 25-34 23.7% 35-44 21.6% 45-54 20.8% 6,239,710 3.6% Sales and Related 4,527,800 31.7% 65+ 6.6% Greatest Occupational Losses Personal Care and Service Unemployment Rate 55-64 16.1% <21 5.1% 185,300 -407,400 Jobs (-68.7%) 592,710 249,900 592,210 Transportation and Material Moving -342,200 Jobs (-57.8%) 694,600 -140,000 Jobs (-16.8%) 834,580 Office and Administrative Support May Employment Edu N/A (> 24 yrs) 11.2% Age of Workforce, 2018 Food Preparation and Serving Related Labor Force Bachelor's or Advanced Degree 25.4% Some College/ Associate 25.8% 41,800 -105,500 Jobs (-71.6%) 147,340 -102,000 Jobs (-19.3%) 426,500 528,480 May 2020 Projection May 2019 Emp 9 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Projected Jobs Lost by Occupational Group, May 2020 -400,000 -350,000 -300,000 -250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 -69% -58% -17% -72% -19% -26% -52% -21% -58% -17% -15% -22% -19% -9% -5% -7% -5% -4% Median Annual Income < $30,000 $30,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $75,000 > $75,000 Food Preparation and Serving Related Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Personal Care and Service Transportation and Material Moving Healthcare Support Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Educational Instruction and Library Community and Social Service Production Business and Financial Operations Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Management Protective Service Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Computer and Mathematical Payroll Job Impacts by Occupation Group Occupation All May 2019 Emp May 2020 Projection Projected Job Loss % Change 6,239,710 4,527,800 -1,711,900 -27.40% Food Preparation and Serving Related 592,710 185,300 -407,400 -68.70% Sales and Related 592,210 250,000 -342,200 -57.80% Office and Administrative Support 834,580 694,600 -140,000 -16.80% Personal Care and Service 147,340 41,800 -105,500 -71.60% Transportation and Material Moving 528,480 426,500 -102,000 -19.30% Healthcare Support 380,700 281,000 -99,700 -26.20% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 182,490 87,200 -95,300 -52.20% Educational Instruction and Library 359,240 284,900 -74,400 -20.70% Community and Social Service 117,150 49,500 -67,700 -57.80% Production 341,020 282,600 -58,400 -17.10% Business and Financial Operations 390,730 334,000 -56,700 -14.50% Construction and Extraction 199,790 156,300 -43,500 -21.80% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 175,720 143,000 -32,700 -18.60% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 303,100 276,500 -26,600 -8.80% Management 381,080 362,400 -18,700 -4.90% Protective Service 147,700 137,100 -10,700 -7.20% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 165,810 157,100 -8,800 -5.30% Computer and Mathematical 172,880 166,100 -6,800 -3.90% 62,030 55,300 -6,800 -10.90% 111,160 105,600 -5,500 -5.00% 47,830 45,500 -2,300 -4.90% 5,960 5,700 -200 -4.00% Legal Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Farming, Fishing, and Forestry *Only select occupations shown, totals may not sum. 10 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RIVERSIDE-ONTARIO MSA PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT IMPACT (MAY 2020) The Riverside – San Bernardino - Ontario metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which consists of Riverside County and San Bernardino County, is projected to experience 31.9% unemployment in May 2020. This equates to a projected loss of 431,000 jobs from one year ago (-28.0%). The occupations with the largest losses are forecasted to be Food Preparation and Serving, Sales and Transportation and Material Moving. The occupation with the greatest losses by employment percentage is projected to be Personal Care and Service (-71.3%). The MSA’s largest major occupation group is Transportation and Material Moving, which is estimated to lose 37,000 jobs year-over-year for a 17.8% decrease in employment. Overall, all of the top five major groups by employment are estimated to lose over 22,000 jobs. Food Preparation and Serving and Sales will likely lose 107,900 and 93,400 jobs, respectively. 2019 Labor Force 2020f 1,594,190 1,624,900 Race & Ethnicity of Workforce, 2018 Hispanic 48.7% Unemployment Rate < HS 21.7% High School 21.0% Some College/ Associate 25.4% Bachelor's or Edu N/A (> Advanced 24 yrs) Degree 15.1% 16.8% 35-44 20.9% 45-54 19.6% Age of Workforce, 2018 22-24 7.4% 25-34 23.9% 65+ 5.9% Greatest Occupational Losses Food Preparation and Serving Related Sales and Related 49,200 Personal Care and Service -107,900 Jobs (-68.5%) 156,380 61,200 -93,400 Jobs (-60.4%) 154,620 -37,000 Jobs (-17.8%) 170,600 207,620 152,700 Office and Administrative Support 31.9% 55-64 14.7% <21 7.7% 1,538,390 1,107,000 3.5% All Other Races 2.2% Educational Attainment of Workforce, 2018 Transportation and Material Moving May Employment African American Asian 7.2% 8.6% White 33.3% -31,100 Jobs (-16.9%) 183,810 10,100 -25,200 Jobs (-71.3%) 35,260 May 2020 Projection May 2019 Emp 11 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Projected Jobs Lost by Occupational Group, May 2020 -110,000 -90,000 -70,000 -50,000 -30,000 -10,000 -69% -60% -18% -17% -71% -27% -22% -22% -58% -17% -18% -15% -9% -51% Median Annual Income < $30,000 $30,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $75,000 -5% -7% -6% > $75,000 -5% Food Preparation and Serving Related Sales and Related Transportation and Material Moving Office and Administrative Support Personal Care and Service Healthcare Support Educational Instruction and Library Construction and Extraction Community and Social Service Production Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Business and Financial Operations Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Management Protective Service Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Architecture and Engineering Payroll Job Impacts by Occupation Group Occupation May 2019 Emp May 2020 Projection Projected Job Loss % Change 1,538,390 1,107,000 -431,400 -28.00% Food Preparation and Serving Related 156,380 49,200 -107,200 -68.50% Sales and Related 154,620 61,200 -93,400 -60.40% Transportation and Material Moving 207,620 170,600 -37,000 -17.80% Office and Administrative Support 183,810 152,700 -31,100 -16.90% 35,260 10,100 -25,200 -71.30% All Personal Care and Service Healthcare Support 88,130 64,800 -23,400 -26.50% 104,940 82,100 -22,800 -21.70% Construction and Extraction 82,200 64,100 -18,100 -22.10% Community and Social Service 26,900 11,200 -15,700 -58.40% Production 79,110 65,600 -13,500 -17.00% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 59,480 48,600 -10,900 -18.30% Business and Financial Operations 55,700 47,500 -8,200 -14.70% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 81,960 74,800 -7,200 -8.80% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 11,590 5,700 -5,900 -51.10% Management 66,840 63,500 -3,400 -5.00% Protective Service 40,900 37,900 -3,000 -7.30% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 46,370 43,800 -2,600 -5.60% Architecture and Engineering 15,410 14,600 -800 -5.00% Computer and Mathematical 17,860 17,200 -700 -4.00% 5,620 5,000 -600 -11.20% 10,000 9,500 -500 -5.00% 7,690 7,400 -300 -3.60% Educational Instruction and Library Legal Life, Physical, and Social Science Farming, Fishing, and Forestry *Only select occupations shown, totals may not sum. 12 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD MSA PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT IMPACT (MAY 2020) The San Diego - Carlsbad metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which consists of San Diego County, is projected to experience 29.8% unemployment in May 2020. This is a projected loss of 407,000 jobs from one year ago (-27.2%). The occupations with the largest losses are estimated be Food Preparation and Serving, Sales and Office and Administrative Support. The occupation with the greatest losses by employment percentage is projected be Personal Care and Service (-72.4%). The San Diego – Carlsbad MSA’s largest major occupation group is Office and Administrative Support, which is estimated to lose 31,300 jobs year-over-year for a 17.0% decrease in employment. The second and third largest, Food Preparation and Serving and Sales, are forecasted to lose 110,692 and 88,315 jobs. However, Business and Financial Operations, which employed 98,300 in 2019, will likely only lose 14.8%. 2019 2020f Hispanic 34.4% White 44.4% Educational Attainment of Workforce, 2018 < HS 17.4% High School 19.3% Bachelor's or Advanced Degree 25.1% Some College/ Associate 26.4% <21 22-24 5.4% 6.4% 25-34 24.9% 35-44 22.2% Food Preparation and Serving Related Personal Care and Service Educational Instruction and Library 2.7% 29.8% 65+ 5.6% Greatest Occupational Losses 49,000 -110,700 Jobs (-69.3%) 159,740 62,200 -88,300 Jobs (-58.7%) 150,520 153,300 Office and Administrative Support Unemployment Rate 55-64 15.5% 45-54 20.0% 1,536,420 1,549,500 May Employment 1,494,940 1,088,000 Edu N/A (> 24 yrs) 11.8% Age of Workforce, 2018 Sales and Related Labor Force African American 5.2% Asian 13.0% All Other Races 3.1% Race & Ethnicity of Workforce, 2018 -31,300 Jobs (-17.0%) 184,580 -29,400 Jobs (-72.4%) 11,200 40,550 -18,600 Jobs (-20.8%) 70,600 89,170 May 2020 Projection May 2019 Emp 13 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Projected Jobs Lost by Occupational Group, May 2020 -110,000 -90,000 -70,000 -50,000 -30,000 -10,000 -69% -59% -17% -72% -21% -27% -19% -15% -22% -58% -17% Median Annual Income -49% -19% -9% -5% -7% -5% -4% < $30,000 $30,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $75,000 > $75,000 Food Preparation and Serving Related Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Personal Care and Service Educational Instruction and Library Healthcare Support Transportation and Material Moving Business and Financial Operations Construction and Extraction Community and Social Service Production Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Management Protective Service Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Computer and Mathematical Payroll Job Impacts by Occupation Group Occupation May 2019 Emp May 2020 Projection Projected Job Loss % Change 1,494,940 1,088,000 -407,000 -27.20% Food Preparation and Serving Related 159,740 49,100 -110,700 -69.30% Sales and Related 150,520 62,200 -88,300 -58.70% Office and Administrative Support All 184,580 153,300 -31,300 -17.00% Personal Care and Service 40,550 11,200 -29,400 -72.40% Educational Instruction and Library 89,170 70,600 -18,500 -20.80% Healthcare Support 67,740 49,700 -18,000 -26.60% Transportation and Material Moving 90,420 73,200 -17,300 -19.10% Business and Financial Operations 98,340 83,800 -14,500 -14.80% Construction and Extraction 64,000 50,200 -13,900 -21.60% Community and Social Service 20,910 8,800 -12,100 -58.00% Production 66,800 55,400 -11,400 -17.10% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 18,720 9,500 -9,300 -49.40% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 47,480 38,700 -8,800 -18.60% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 77,430 70,600 -6,800 -8.80% Management 94,520 89,900 -4,600 -4.90% Protective Service 36,150 33,600 -2,600 -7.20% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 45,830 43,400 -2,500 -5.40% Computer and Mathematical 57,080 54,800 -2,300 -4.00% Architecture and Engineering 44,720 42,500 -2,200 -5.00% Legal 11,680 10,400 -1,300 -10.70% Life, Physical, and Social Science 25,270 24,100 -1,200 -4.80% 3,290 3,200 -100 -3.60% Farming, Fishing, and Forestry *Only select occupations shown, totals may not sum. 14 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BAKERSFIELD MSA PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT IMPACT (MAY 2020) The Bakersfield metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which consists of Kern County, is projected to experience 31 percent unemployment by May 2020. This equates to a projected loss of 75,400 jobs from one year ago (-23.8%). The occupations with the largest losses are forecasted to be Food Preparation and Serving, Sales, and Office and Administrative Support. The occupation with the greatest losses by employment percentage is estimated to be Personal Care and Service (-68.4%). Bakersfield MSA’s largest major occupation group is Farming, which is projected to only experience a 3.3% decrease in employment year-over-year. However, its fourth and fifth largest major group, Food Preparation and Sales respectively, will likely have lost nearly 33,000 jobs combined since last May. 2019 2020f Hispanic 48.7% 341,250 348,300 White 37.3% All Other Races, 1.6% <21 22-24 7.0% 6.6% 35-44 21.9% 25-34 24.1% 316,680 241,300 < HS 23.5% High School 22.1% 7.2% Some College/ Associate 25.1% Bachelor's or Advanced Edu N/A (> 24 yrs) Degree 13.6% 15.7% Greatest Occupational Losses (Bakersfield MSA) Sales and Related 7,900 -17,100 Jobs (-68%) 24,980 10,000 Educational Instruction and Library Transportation and Material Moving Unemployment Rate 65-99 6.8% 55-64 14.8% 45-54 18.8% Educational Attainment of Workforce, 2018 Office and Administrative Support May Employment Asian 7.4% Age of Workforce, 2018 Food Preparation and Serving Related Labor Force African American 5.0% Race & Ethnicity of Workforce, 2018 30.7% May 2020 Projection -15,700 Jobs (-61%) 25,720 27,200 -5,400 Jobs (-17%) 32,610 18,400 -5,200 Jobs (-22%) 23,560 22,900 -4,900 Jobs (-18%) 27,780 May 2019 Emp 15 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Projected Jobs Lost by Occupational Group, May 2020 -17000 -15000 -13000 -11000 -9000 -7000 -5000 -3000 -1000 -68% -61% -17% -22% -18% -22% -60% -27% -68% -19% Median Annual Income -15% -17% < $30,000 $30,001 - $49,999 -3% -54% -9% $50,000 - $74,999 > $75,000 -8% -5% 1000 Food Preparation and Serving Related Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Educational Instruction and Library Transportation and Material Moving Construction and Extraction Community and Social Service Healthcare Support Personal Care and Service Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Business and Financial Operations Production Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Protective Service Management Payroll Job Impacts by Occupation Group Occupation All Occupations May 2019 Emp 316,680 May 2020 Projection Projected Job Loss % Change 241,300 -75,400 -23.8% Food Preparation and Serving Related 24,980 7,900 -17,100 -68.3% Sales and Related 25,720 10,000 -15,700 -61.0% Office and Administrative Support 32,610 27,200 -5,400 -16.6% Educational Instruction and Library 23,560 18,400 -5,200 -22.0% Transportation and Material Moving 27,780 22,900 -4,900 -17.7% Construction and Extraction 17,630 13,700 -3,900 -22.2% 6,250 2,500 -3,700 -59.9% 13,370 9,800 -3,500 -26.5% Community and Social Service Healthcare Support Personal Care and Service 5,060 1,600 -3,500 -68.4% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 13,110 10,700 -2,500 -18.7% Business and Financial Operations 11,780 10,000 -1,700 -14.8% Production 10,020 8,300 -1,700 -16.8% Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 41,830 40,500 -1,400 -3.3% 2,480 1,100 -1,300 -54.0% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 14,850 13,500 -1,300 -8.8% Protective Service 10,140 9,400 -800 -7.7% Management Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 12,080 11,500 -600 -5.0% Architecture and Engineering 8,050 7,700 -400 -4.9% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 6,950 6,600 -400 -5.2% Life, Physical, and Social Science 3,460 3,300 -200 -5.0% Computer and Mathematical 3,920 3,800 -200 -4.1% Legal 1,050 900 -100 -10.7% *Only select occupations shown, totals may not sum. 16 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OXNARD-VENTURA MSA PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT IMPACT (MAY 2020) The Oxnard – Thousand Oaks - Ventura metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which consists solely of Ventura County, is projected to experience 30.1% unemployment in May 2020. This equates to a projected loss of 87,900 jobs from one year ago (-27.8%). African American 3.7% Race & Ethnicity of Workforce, 2018 Hispanic 43.0% White 41.2% All Other Races 2.3% Educational Attainment of Workforce, 2018 The occupations with the largest losses are forecasted to be Food Preparation and Serving, Sales and Office and Administrative Support. The occupation with the greatest losses by employment percentage is estimated to be Personal Care and Service (-70.0%). < HS 19.4% High School 19.4% Some College/ Associate 25.9% Asian 9.8% Bachelor's or Advanced Degree 22.4% Edu N/A (> 24 yrs) 12.9% Age of Workforce, 2018 The MSA’s largest major occupation group is Office and Administrative Support, which is estimated to lose 6,766 jobs year-over-year for a 16.8% decrease in employment. Overall, four of the top five major groups by employment are projected to lose over 4,500 jobs, with Sales and Food Preparation and Serving losing over 20,000 each. However, the fifth largest major group, Production, will likely only lose a projected 3,200 jobs (-17.1%) 2019 2020f <21 6.9% 22-24 6.0% 35-44 21.2% 25-34 22.0% 326,430 Food Preparation and Serving Related 316,640 32,430 14,200 -20,400 Jobs (-58.9%) 34,680 327,400 228,800 Personal Care and Service Educational Instruction and Library Unemployment Rate 3.0% 30.1% 65+ 7.1% -22,400 Jobs (-69.1%) 10,000 33,500 -6,800 Jobs (-16.8%) Office and Administrative Support May Employment 55-64 16.3% Greatest Occupational Losses Sales and Related Labor Force 45-54 20.5% 40,220 2,300 -5,400 Jobs (-70.0%) 7,730 16,000 -4,500 Jobs (-22.0%) 20,550 May 2020 Projection May 2019 Emp 17 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Projected Jobs Lost by Occupational Group, May 2020 -23000 -18000 -13000 -8000 -3000 -69% -59% -17% Median Annual Income < $30,000 $30,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $75,000 -70% -22% -27% -19% -17% -57% -22% -15% -52% -18% -9% -5% > $75,000 -6% -7% -5% Food Preparation and Serving Related Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Personal Care and Service Educational Instruction and Library Healthcare Support Transportation and Material Moving Production Community and Social Service Construction and Extraction Business and Financial Operations Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Management Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Protective Service Architecture and Engineering Payroll Job Impacts by Occupation Group Occupation All May 2019 Emp May 2020 Projection Projected Job Loss % Change 316,640 228,800 -87,900 -27.80% Food Preparation and Serving Related 32,430 10,000 -22,400 -69.10% Sales and Related 34,680 14,200 -20,400 -58.90% Office and Administrative Support 40,220 33,500 -6,800 -16.80% 7,730 2,300 -5,400 -70.00% Educational Instruction and Library 20,550 16,000 -4,500 -22.00% Healthcare Support 16,110 11,900 -4,300 -26.50% Transportation and Material Moving 21,870 17,800 -4,000 -18.50% Production 18,760 15,500 -3,200 -17.10% 5,640 2,500 -3,200 -56.50% Construction and Extraction 13,390 10,400 -3,000 -22.10% Business and Financial Operations 17,650 15,100 -2,600 -14.50% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 3,640 1,800 -1,900 -51.70% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 9,780 8,000 -1,800 -18.40% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 15,290 13,900 -1,400 -8.80% Management 17,540 16,700 -900 -5.00% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 8,870 8,400 -500 -5.80% Protective Service 5,470 5,100 -400 -7.30% Architecture and Engineering 7,920 7,500 -400 -5.00% Computer and Mathematical 7,320 7,000 -300 -4.00% Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 6,230 6,000 -200 -3.50% Legal 1,920 1,700 -200 -10.90% Life, Physical, and Social Science 3,630 3,500 -200 -4.90% Personal Care and Service Community and Social Service *Only select occupations shown, totals may not sum. 18 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SANTA MARIA, SANTA BARBARA MSA PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT IMPACT (MAY 2020) The Santa Maria – Santa Barbara metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which consists of Santa Barbara County, is projected to experience 29.9% unemployment in May 2020. This is a projected loss of 53,500 jobs from one year ago (-27.9%). The occupations with the largest losses are projected to be Food Preparation and Serving, Sales and Office and Administrative Support. The occupation with the greatest losses by employment percentage is estimated to be Food Preparation and Serving (69.1%). African American 3.2% Race & Ethnicity of Workforce, 2018 Hispanic 40.3% White 46.9% Asian 7.3% All Other Races 2.3% Educational Attainment of Workforce, 2018 < HS 19.1% High School 20.0% Bachelor's or Advanced Degree 21.8% Some College/ Associate 26.1% Edu N/A (> 24 yrs) 13.1% Age of Workforce, 2018 The MSA’s largest major occupation group, Food Preparation and Serving, is forecasted to be hit hardest with an estimated 16,800 jobs lost year-over-year for a 69.1% employment decrease. The second and third largest, Office and Administrative Support and Sales, are projected to lose 3,600 and 10,600 jobs respectively. However, Farming employs over 10,000 in this MSA and will likely only lose 300 jobs. <21 6.6% 22-24 6.6% 25-34 22.9% 35-44 20.2% 55-64 16.6% 45-54 19.0% 65+ 8.2% Greatest Occupational Losses 2019 2020f The Santa Maria – Santa Barbara metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which consists of Santa Barbara County, is projected to experience 29.9% unemployment in May 2020. There is a projected loss of 53,519 jobs from one year ago (-27.9%). Labor Force 199,60 197,120 May Employment 191,660 138,140 The occupations with the largest losses will be Food Preparation and Serving, Sales and Office and Administrative Support. The occupation with the greatest losses by employment percentage will be Food Preparation and Serving (-69.1%). Unemployment Rate 4.0% 29.9% The MSA’s largest sector, Food Preparation and Serving, will be hit hardest with an estimated 16,804 jobs lost year-over-year for a 69.1% employment decrease. The second and third largest, Office and Administrative Support and Sales, are projected to lose 3,571 and 10,585 jobs respectively. However, Farming employs over 10,000 in this MSA and will only lose 338 jobs. Food Preparation and Serving Related Sales and Related 7,500 24,310 7,400 -10,600 Jobs (-59.0%) 17,950 17,789 -3,600 Jobs (-16.7%) 21,360 Office and Administrative Support Personal Care and Service -16,800 Jobs (-69.1%) 1,500 4,900 Educational Instruction and Library May 2020 Projection -3,400 Jobs (-68.8%) 11,600 -3,300 Jobs (-22.1%) 14,860 May 2019 Emp EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Projected Jobs Lost by Occupational Group, May 2020 -17,000 -15,000 -13,000 -11,000 -9,000 -7,000 -5,000 -3,000 -1,000 -69% -59% -17% -69% -22% -27% -61% -19% Median Annual Income < $30,000 $30,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $75,000 > $75,000 -22% -14% -17% -51% -19% -9% -5% -6% -3% -7% Food Preparation and Serving Related Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Personal Care and Service Educational Instruction and Library Healthcare Support Community and Social Service Transportation and Material Moving Construction and Extraction Business and Financial Operations Production Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Management Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Protective Service Payroll Job Impacts by Occupation Group Occupation All Food Preparation and Serving Related Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Personal Care and Service Educational Instruction and Library Healthcare Support Community and Social Service Transportation and Material Moving Construction and Extraction Business and Financial Operations Production Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Management Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Protective Service Architecture and Engineering Computer and Mathematical Legal Life, Physical, and Social Science May 2019 Emp 191,660 24,310 17,950 21,360 4,900 14,860 8,500 3,640 11,150 7,980 9,120 7,370 2,340 4,850 8,820 11,060 8,040 10,020 3,080 4,460 5,070 920 1,860 May 2020 Projection 138,100 7,500 7,300 17,800 1,500 11,600 6,300 1,400 9,100 6,300 7,800 6,100 1,100 3,900 8,000 10,500 7,600 9,700 2,900 4,200 4,900 800 1,800 Projected Job Loss -53,500 -16,800 -10,600 -3,600 -3,400 -3,300 -2,300 -2,200 -2,100 -1,700 -1,300 -1,200 -1,200 -900 -800 -600 -500 -300 -200 -200 -200 -100 -90 % Change -27.90% -69.10% -59.00% -16.90% -69.40% -22.10% -26.50% -60.50% -18.80% -21.60% -14.30% -16.80% -51.30% -18.70% -8.80% -5.00% -5.70% -3.40% -7.30% -6.50% -4.00% -11.0% -4.70% *Only select occupations shown, totals may not sum. 20 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SAN LUIS OBISPO MSA PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT IMPACT (MAY 2020) The San Luis Obispo – Paso Robles – Arroyo Grande metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which consists of San Luis Obispo County, is projected to experience 31.5% unemployment in May 2020. This is a projected loss of 34,100 jobs from one year ago (-29.4%). African American 2.1% Race & Ethnicity of Workforce, 2018 Hispanic 29.1% White 60.7% Asian 5.5% All Other Races 2.6% Educational Attainment of Workforce, 2018 The occupations with the largest losses are forecasted to be Food Preparation and Serving, Sales and Office and Administrative Support. The occupation with the greatest losses by employment percentage is estimated to be Personal Care and Service (-70.2%). < HS 15.6% High School 21.2% Some College/ Associate 27.3% Bachelor's or Advanced Degree 19.8% Edu N/A (> 24 yrs) 16.2% Age of Workforce, 2018 The MSA’s largest major occupation group is Food Preparation and Serving, which is estimated to lose 10,300 jobs year-over-year for a 69.3% decrease in employment. The second and third largest, Office and Administrative Support and Sales, are projected to lose 2,200 and 7,800 jobs respectively. 2019 Labor Force 2020f 118,740 119,400 22-24 <21 7.3% 8.9% 25-34 23.1% 35-44 20.3% 115,890 81,800 Food Preparation and Serving Related Office and Administrative Support Personal Care and Service The MSA’s largest sector is Food Preparation and Unemployment Serving, which is estimated to lose 10,262 jobs yearover-year for a 69.3% decrease in employment. The Rate second and third largest, Office and Administrative Support and Sales, are projected to lose 2,243 and 7,818 jobs respectively. 2.4% 31.5% 55-64 15.8% 65+ 7.4% Greatest Occupational Losses Sales and Related May Employment 45-54 17.2% Educational Instruction and Library May 2020 Projection 4,500 -10,300 Jobs (-69.3%) 14,800 5,300 -7,800 Jobs (-59.8%) 13,070 11,200 -2,200 Jobs (-16.7%) 13,460 1,000 -2,200 Jobs (-70.2%) 3,190 6,500 -1,900 Jobs (-22.2%) 8,340 May 2019 Emp 21 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Projected Jobs Lost by Occupational Group, May 2020 -10,000 -9,000 -8,000 -7,000 -6,000 -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 Food Preparation and Serving Related Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Personal Care and Service Educational Instruction and Library Healthcare Support Construction and Extraction Transportation and Material Moving Community and Social Service Production Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Business and Financial Operations Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Management Protective Service Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance -69% -60% -17% -70% -22% -27% -22% -19% -57% -17% -18% -14% -51% -9% -5% -8% Median Annual Income < $30,000 $30,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $75,000 > $75,000 -5% Payroll Job Impacts by Occupation Group Occupation All May 2019 Emp May 2020 Projection Projected Job Loss % Change 115,890 81,800 -34,100 -29.40% Food Preparation and Serving Related 14,800 4,500 -10,300 -69.30% Sales and Related 13,070 5,300 -7,800 -59.80% Office and Administrative Support 13,460 11,200 -2,200 -16.70% Personal Care and Service 3,190 1,000 -2,200 -70.20% Educational Instruction and Library 8,340 6,500 -1,900 -22.20% Healthcare Support 5,660 4,100 -1,500 -27.30% Construction and Extraction 6,110 4,800 -1,300 -22.00% Transportation and Material Moving 7,190 5,900 -1,300 -18.60% Community and Social Service 1,760 800 -1,000 -57.20% Production 4,940 4,100 -800 -16.50% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 4,170 3,400 -800 -18.20% Business and Financial Operations 4,360 3,800 -600 -13.80% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 1,170 600 -600 -51.30% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 6,740 6,200 -600 -8.70% Management 5,970 5,700 -300 -5.00% Protective Service 3,370 3,100 -300 -7.50% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 4,680 4,400 -300 -5.20% Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 3,290 3,200 -100 -3.60% Architecture and Engineering 2,150 2,100 -100 -4.90% Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 3,150 3,100 -100 -3.30% 530 500 -50 -10.80% 1,080 1,000 -50 -5.10% Legal Life, Physical, and Social Science *Only select occupations shown, totals may not sum. 22 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EL CENTRO MSA PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT IMPACT (MAY 2020) The El Centro metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which consists of Imperial County, is projected to experience 40.4% unemployment in May 2020. This equates to a projected loss of 15,400 jobs from one year ago (26.4%). The occupations with the largest losses are estimated to be Sales, Food Preparation and Serving and Healthcare Support. The occupation with the greatest losses by employment percentage is projected to be Personal Care and Service (-69.4%). El Centro MSA’s largest major occupation group is Office and Administrative Support, which is estimated to lose 1,143 jobs year-over-year for a 17.1% decrease in employment. Its second largest occupational group, Sales, is projected to lose 61.5% of total employment. Overall, although Farming is projected to remain strong, four of El Centro’s top five major groups will likely lose over 1,000 jobs. 2019 2020f Hispanic 78.4% May Employment Unemployment Rate 70,132 58,560 16.5% 72,400 43,100 40.4% White 15.9% African American Asian 2.5% 2.3% Age of Workforce, 2018 <21 5.8% 25-34 22.3% 35-44 19.9% 45-54 21.2% 55-64 17.8% 65+ 6.3% 22-24, 6.7% Educational Attainment of Workforce, 2018 < HS 39.8% High School 19.0% Some Bachelor's or Edu College/ Advanced N/A (> Associate Degree 24 yrs) 10.0% 18.8% 12.5% Greatest Occupational Losses (El Centro) Sales and Related Labor Force All Other Races 0.9% Race & Ethnicity of Workforce, 2018 2,400 -3,800 Jobs (-61.5%) 6,220 Food Preparation and Serving Related 1,300 -3,100 Jobs (-69.3%) 4,400 Healthcare Support 3,700 -1,300 Jobs (-26.4%) 5,080 Office and Administrative Support 5,500 -1,100 Jobs (-17.1%) 6,670 3,800 -1,100 Jobs (-22.9%) Educational Instruction and Library *Only select occupations shown, totals may not sum. 4,960 May 2020 Projection May 2019 Emp 23 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Projected Jobs Lost by Occupational Group, May 2020 -4000 -3500 -3000 -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 -62% -69% -26% -17% -23% -63% Median Annual Income < $30,000 $30,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $75,000 > $75,000 -16% -69% -18% -17% -22% -18% -7% -9% -67% -3% -5% 0 Sales and Related Food Preparation and Serving Related Healthcare Support Office and Administrative Support Educational Instruction and Library Community and Social Service Transportation and Material Moving Personal Care and Service Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Business and Financial Operations Construction and Extraction Production Protective Service Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Management Payroll Job Impacts by Occupation Group Occupation All May 2019 Emp May 2020 Projection Projected Job Loss % Change 58,560 43,100 -15,400 -26.40% Sales and Related Food Preparation and Serving Related 6,220 4,400 2,300 1,300 -3,800 -3,100 -61.50% -69.30% Healthcare Support 5,080 3,800 -1,300 -26.40% Office and Administrative Support 6,670 5,500 -1,100 -17.10% Educational Instruction and Library Community and Social Service 4,960 1,710 3,800 600 -1,100 -1,100 -22.90% -63.10% Transportation and Material Moving 4,240 3,500 -700 -16.40% Personal Care and Service Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 930 2,190 300 1,800 -700 -400 -69.40% -18.30% Business and Financial Operations 2,080 1,700 -400 -17.00% Construction and Extraction 1,450 1,100 -300 -21.50% Production 1,680 1,400 -300 -17.90% Protective Service 3,500 3,300 -300 -7.00% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 340 100 -200 -66.60% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 2,570 5,710 2,300 5,500 -200 -200 -8.80% -3.30% Management 2,460 2,300 -100 -5.20% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 1,450 1,400 -100 -5.20% Legal 240 200 -50 -10.80% Life, Physical, and Social Science 360 300 -50 -4.80% Architecture and Engineering 320 300 -50 -4.70% *Only select occupations shown, totals may not sum. 24 1 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF COVID-19: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Final Thoughts In the face of this pandemic, Southern California, like the rest of the state and the country, will face significant economic challenges. How significant and for how long are still to be determined. Small businesses will face liquidity issues, particularly in Los Angeles County, where 93 percent of businesses employ fewer than 20 workers. Those in the non-essential and service sectors have lost the majority of their consumer base, and the short-term outlook for employee retention is suboptimal as operations attempt to simply keep themselves afloat. Layoffs have already begun and are expected to significantly increase. With projections indicating that unemployment will be close to reaching roughly 30 percent in each of the Southern California region’s counties, households across the region will be without steady incomes and will require immediate assistance. As the income distribution of the occupations hardest hit indicates, the immediate economic effects of COVID-19 have not been equally distributed. Higher-income workers in professional services, management, and computer and mathematical occupations have thus far managed to shift to a remote workplace. Not only are their jobs protected, but these households are also likely to have higher saving rates. In stark contrast, lowerincome workers in personal care, retail, and food preparation occupations do not have the option to complete their duties without interacting with the public. As such, the rates of job losses in these three groups are overwhelming, ranging from 60 to 70 percent job loss throughout Southern California. Those willing and able to retain their jobs in these occupations do so with the health risk associated of being exposed to the public. California and local governments have been proactive in developing short-term measures to assist with these massive losses for lowincome workers, such as expanding food assistance benefits, paid sick leave, and unemployment benefits. However, discussions on how best to mitigate long-term losses will continue to develop in the coming months. Additional uncertainties stem from the lack of a clear timetable for when businesses can expect to resume operations and workers to leave their homes. Governor Gavin Newsom has cautioned that lifting the stay-at-home order too soon could have dire consequences; as such, a gradual process of resuming economic activity is expected. Moreover, mounting COVID-19 case numbers suggest that resuming normal economic activity too soon may cause more harm than extending prohibitions on movement and business activity. In sum, employment figures will take time to recover, and when they do, the composition of the regional and national workforce may look significantly different. Businesses may be forced to close after an extended period without income, and many workers may not have jobs to return to as social distancing measures are kept in place or as residents change their consumption behaviors to even beyond the eventual easing of social distancing measures; or until a vaccine is approved and widely available. In future updates, the LAEDC will provide revised estimates about the state of employment in the Southern California region along with best practices for how best to address the wellbeing of the region. 25 Methodology Numerous data sources and methodologies were used to measure the projections and employment makeup of each occupation within the identified geographic areas. Occupations and Projections Occupations are commonly classified using the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system, developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This system classifies workers into 867 detailed occupations that share similar job duties, skills, education and training. These occupations are not industry-specific but are common to many industries. For example, retail salespersons are employed in a full spectrum of industries, from department and discount stores to computer systems design. Projections included in this report use a bottom-up approach based on the latest, May 2019, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for each of 10 metro areas included in the Southern California Region. The methodology used is based upon similar nationwide occupational job loss estimates recently produced by economists at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, which used “high-risk” of job loss and estimates of the required physical proximity of work to produce unemployment rates and job loss. The LAEDC estimated probable job loss across occupational categories and applied those to OES data to generate estimated probable job loss and unemployment rates for each MSA in Southern California. Data Sources All data was obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics the U.S. Department of Labor and the U.S. Census Bureau. Occupational data (employment and wages) are from the Occupational Employment Statistics program. Physical proximity of work was obtained from O*NET. Workforce demographic data is from the Quarterly Workforce Indicators dataset. Unless noted otherwise, all base year data is for the 2018 calendar year. LAEDC.ORG 26