GEORGIA STATEWIDE – SURVEY MEMORANDUM DATE​: TO​: FROM​: RE​: Wednesday, April 29, 2020 Georgia House Republican Trust Jacqueline Boggess – Director, Insights & Communication Survey of Likely General Election Voters The information below was gathered by ​Cygnal​ through an advanced multi-mode (Live Calls + SMS + Email) survey of likely general election voters in Georgia, conducted April 25, 2020 – April 27, 2020. This survey has a sample size of n591 and an MoE of ±4.03% at a 95% confidence interval. TL;DR Right direction/wrong track has fallen from +18 to +5 among Georgia voters. Additionally, the generic ballot has dropped from R+5 to R+3. 30% of voters plan to vote at the polls on Election Day while 26% plan to vote early in person, and 28% will vote by mail or absentee. Net favs for Trump, Kemp, and Loffler are underwater, while Collins is at +11. Since the November poll, Trump’s net fav has gone down one point and Kemp’s has cratered, falling 19 points from +10 to -9. Trump holds a slight lead over Biden (+1) on the Presidential ballot. If the Senate jungle primary special election was held today, Collins would get 29% of the vote with Lieberman behind him with 12% and Loeffler and Warnock tied for third with 11% each. Among Republicans, it’s 62% Collins and 18% Loeffler (19% undecided). Looking at the other Senate race, Perdue is 6 points ahead of Ossoff (12% undecided). “Controlling the spread of the Coronavirus and returning life to normal” is the top priority for Georgia voters (35%) and Trump and Kemp aren’t getting high marks on their responses. The Georgia General Assembly is barely breaking even with voters on this issue and many don’t know what it’s doing. 60% of voters chose “public health” over “economic impact” as their main COVID-19 concern and more than two-thirds think the worst is yet to come or we’re in the middle of it now. More than half think Georgia is opening back up too quickly and that social distancing should remain in place until more progress has been made. 81%, approve of keeping schools closed. 30% think business should remain closed for 1 – 3 more weeks (27% 4 – 6 more weeks). 29% think social distancing should continue for “several more weeks” (24% 2 – 3 months). 63% have not had their work hours cut. They trust the GOP to get the economy moving but are split on which party they trust to slow the spread of Coronavirus. Things are looking down in GA. Right direction has fallen from +18 to +5 among Georgia voters. Compared to the November poll, the biggest drop in the generic ballot is rural voters, who were 70% for the GOP in November, but are now 61% for the GOP. The Presidential race is close. -1 is good compared to Trump’s national net fav (-10), and he’s leading Biden by 1 point on the ballot (Trump: 45% / Biden: 44% / third-party: 7%) and his support is stronger. Biden’s winning Independents by 15 points and moderates by 43. But Collins has a decent lead . . . Collins was the only politician tested with a net fav that wasn’t underwater. If the Senate jungle primary special election was held today, he would lead at 29% with Lieberman, Loeffler, and Warnock double digits behind. When looking at just Republican voters, it’s Collins with 62%, Loeffler with 18%, and 19% are undecided. A few groups that are above the topline when it comes to being undecided are women, young voters, Independents, Democrats, moderates, and liberals. One-quarter of suburban women are going for Collins while 40% are undecided. One-quarter of swing voters are also going for Collins while 37% are undecided. Collins is ahead in metro Atlanta (22%), but Warnock is right on his heels (18%) and 32% are undecided. Collins is winning the area around Atlanta with 40% (25% undecided). . . . and so does Perdue. Looking at the other Senate race, Perdue is 6 points ahead of Ossoff with 12% undecided. Perdue’s support is stronger, so this is still his race to lose. Moderates are going for Ossof (Perdue: 23% / Ossof: 56%) as are suburban women (Perdue: 38% / Ossof: 45%), but Perdue is winning in the areas around Atlanta (Perdue: 57% / Ossof: 26%). Coronavirus is top of mind . . . “Controlling the spread of the Coronavirus and returning life to normal” is by far the top priority for these voters (35%). It’s a full 10 points higher than the second place choice, “creating jobs and rebuilding the economy,” which is also a reflection of the current pandemic’s impact on society. These were the top priorities across the board, with these exceptions: ● ● Democrats, liberals, moderates, urbanites, Black voters, and Hispanic voters had the same top choice as the group overall, but their second most important issue was “providing access to quality, affordable healthcare.” Republicans, conservatives, and White voters switched the order of the overall top two with “creating jobs and rebuilding the economy” as #1, and “controlling the spread of the Coronavirus and returning life to normal” as #2. . . . and voters aren’t happy with how Trump and Kemp are handling it. When it comes to approval of how politicians are handling COVID-19, only the GA General Assembly is getting overall positive marks but not by much and 36% are either unsure or “neither approve nor disapprove” – meaning they’re largely unaware of what the Assembly is doing. For both Trump and Kemp, the sentiment among the disapprove crowd is much stronger. Coronavirus Handling Approval Approve Disapprove Trump 46% 51% Kemp 41% 54% GA Gen. Assembly 34% 30% Suburban women overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump’s handling while swing voters are statistically split. When it comes to Kemp, both groups very much disapprove of his handling of the Coronavirus. The General Assembly does better with these groups, with slight disapproval from suburban women and slight approval from swing voters. Voters are more concerned about their health than the economy’s. 60% of voters chose “public health” over “economic impact” (36%) as their bigger COVID-19 concern with only 4% unsure. Only Republicans and conservatives were more concerned about the economy (61% economic impact for both). This tracks with the fact that more than two-thirds think the worst is yet to come (34%) or we’re in the middle of it now (30%), while only 22% think the worst is over. Additionally, 58% think Georgia is moving too quickly when it comes to opening back up, 31% think they’re moving at the right pace, 6% think they’re taking too long and 5% are unsure. Women, urbanites, Independents, and Democrats are more likely to think they’re moving too fast. Reopening GA Republican Independent Democrat Too Quickly 28% 63% 93% Appropriate Pace 57% 26% 5% Too Long 10% 6% 1% When asked about GA’s social distancing measures, 54% think the measures should remain in place until more progress has been made, while 32% think it’s time to slowly start allowing people to go back to work. Only 8% think the restrictions have already gone too far. Comparatively, 30% think businesses should open in 1 – 3 weeks and 27% think they should open in 4 – 6 weeks. Only 15% think they should open immediately and another 15% think they should wait more than 6 weeks. Looking at social distancing, 28% think it should continue for “several more weeks” and 24% say for 2 – 3 months. Only 7% want to end it now, while 14% say 4 –6 months and 15% say “more than 6 months.” 81% approve of closing the schools for the rest of the year. Even 51% of Republicans “strongly approve” of the closure (75% of GOP approve overall). 63% of these voters haven’t had their hours cut: 24% had no change in work status, 19% are working the same hours from home, and 20% were already retired. 11% lost their job or were furloughed. Men, young people, Republicans, Independents, rural and suburban dwellers, and high-income people are more likely to have had no change in work status. Change in work status/hours had little impact on their views toward opening businesses and ending social distancing. They trust the GOP to get the economy moving again. Voters are split on whether they trust the Democratic or Republican party more when it comes to slowing the spread of COVID-19. But they have more trust in the GOP when it comes to the economy (50% GOP / 36% Dem), including swing voters and suburban women. METHODOLOGY: ​This probabilistic survey was conducted April 25, 2020 – April 27, 2020, with 591 likely general election voters. It has a margin of error of ±4.03%. Known registered constituents were interviewed via live agents calling cell phones and landlines, and voters received invitations to participate in the survey via SMS and email with a secure link tied to their voter record. This survey was weighted to a likely general election voter universe. ABOUT THE FIRM: ​Cygnal​ is an award-winning national public opinion and predictive analytics firm that pioneered multi-mode polling and peer-to-peer text collection. Cyngal was recently named the #1 private pollster and the #2 pollster overall by Nate Silver’s ​FiveThirtyEight​, as well as the #1 most accurate polling and research firm in the country for 2018 by ​The New York Times​. Its team members have worked in 46 states on more than 1,100 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns.