Report
04/0 1/2.0 1 9

•

Gulf Power·

April1, 2019

Mr. Adam Teitzman, Commission Clerk
Florida Public Service Commission
2540 Shumard Oak Boulevard
Tallahassee FL 32399-0870

Re: 2019 Ten Year Site Plan
Dear Ms. Stauffer:
Attached for electronic filing is Gulf Power Company's 2019 Ten Year Site Plan
filed pursuant to FPSC Rule No. 25-22.071.
Sincerely,

C. Shane Boyett
Regulatory Issues Manager

md
Attachments
cc:

Florida Public Service Commission
Adam Teitzman, Office of the Commission Clerk (1 0 copies)
Gulf Power Company
Russell Badders, Esq., VP & Associate General Counsel

Gulf Power Company
One Energy Place. Pensacola. Florida 32520

 7(1 <($5 6,7( 3/$1
         

)25 (/(&75,& *(1(5$7,1* )$&,/,7,(6
$1'
$662&,$7(' 75$160,66,21 /,1(6

$35,/     

 *8/) 32:(5 &203$1<
7(1 <($5 6,7( 3/$1

)25 (/(&75,& *(1(5$7,1* )$&,/,7,(6
$1'
$662&,$7(' 75$160,66,21 /,1(6

6XEPLWWHG 7R 7KH 
6WDWH RI )ORULGD
3XEOLF 6HUYLFH &RPPLVVLRQ

$35,/        

 TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CHAPTER I

Schedule 1

CHAPTER II

DESCRIPTION OF EXISTING FACILITIES
Description of Existing Facilities

5

Existing Generating Facilities

7

Gulf System Map

9

FORECAST OF ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND
AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Forecasting Methodology
Overview

10

I.

Assumptions

11

II.

Customer Forecast

14

III.

Energy Sales Forecast

15

IV.

Peak Demand Forecast

18

V.

Data Sources

19

VI.

Conservation Programs

20

VII.

Small Power Production/
Renewable Energy

27

Schedule 2.1

History and Forecast of
Energy Consumption and Number
of Customers by Customer Class

28

Schedule 2.2

History and Forecast of
Energy Consumption and Number
of Customers by Customer Class

29

i

 Page
Schedule 2.3

History and Forecast of
Energy Consumption and Number
of Customers by Customer Class

30

Schedule 3.1

History and Forecast of
Summer Peak Demand

31

Schedule 3.2

History and Forecast of
Winter Peak Demand

32

Schedule 3.3

History and Forecast of
Annual Net Energy for Load

33

Schedule 4

Previous Year Actual and
Two-Year Forecast of Peak Demand
and Net Energy for Load by Month

34

Schedule 5

Fuel Requirements

35

Schedule 6.1

Energy Sources - GWH

36

Schedule 6.2

Energy Sources - % of NEL

37

CHAPTER III

PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS AND PROCESSES
Integrated Resource Planning Process
Transmission Planning Process
Fuel Price Forecast Process

38
41
42

Fuel Price Forecasts

42

Generic Fuel Forecast

43

Natural Gas Prices

43

Natural Gas Price Outlook

44

Coal Price Outlook

45

ii

 Page

CHAPTER IV

Environmental Compliance

48

Availability of System Interchange

62

Off-System Sales

62

FORECAST OF FACILITIES REQUIREMENTS
Capacity Resource Alternatives

64

Renewable Resources

65

Renewable Energy Sources

68

Preferred and Potential Sites
for Capacity Additions

69

Schedule 7.1

Forecast of Capacity, Demand,
and Scheduled Maintenance at
Time Of Summer Peak

72

Schedule 7.2

Forecast of Capacity, Demand,
and Scheduled Maintenance at
Time Of Winter Peak

73

Schedule 8

Planned and Prospective Generating
Facility Additions and Changes

74

Schedule 9

Status Report and Specifications
of Proposed Generating Facilities

75

Schedule 10

Status Report and Specifications
of Proposed Directly Associated
Transmission Lines

76

Schedule 6.3

iii

 This page is intentionally blank.

 

 
*8/) 32:(5 &203$1< 
7(1 <($5 6,7( 3/$1 
([HFXWLYH 6XPPDU\ 
 
7KH *XOI 3RZHU &RPSDQ\  *XOI 3RZHU  *XOI  RU &RPSDQ\       7HQ <HDU 
6LWH  3ODQ   7<63   LV  ILOHG  ZLWK  WKH  )ORULGD  3XEOLF  6HUYLFH  &RPPLVVLRQ   )36&   LQ 
DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV RI &KDSWHU          )ORULGD 6WDWXWHV  DV UHYLVHG 
E\ WKH /HJLVODWXUH LQ        7KH UHYLVLRQ GHVLJQDWHG WKH )36& DV WKH VWDWH DJHQF\ 
UHVSRQVLEOH IRU RYHUVLJKW RI WKH 7<63   7KLV 7<63 LV EHLQJ ILOHG LQ FRPSOLDQFH ZLWK 
)36& 5XOH 1R             ) $ &  
*XOI¶V      7<63 SUHVHQWV D UHVRXUFH SODQ IRU WKH \HDUV      WKURXJK      
WKDW LV EDVHG RQ UHVRXUFH SODQQLQJ DQDO\VHV SHUIRUPHG GXULQJ        ,Q       DV 
LQ SUHYLRXV \HDUV  WKHVH UHVRXUFH SODQQLQJ DQDO\VHV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG E\ 6RXWKHUQ 
&RPSDQ\ 6HUYLFHV  6&6  RQ EHKDOI RI *XOI 3RZHU  
*XOI¶V      7<63 SURYLGHV GRFXPHQWDWLRQ RI DVVXPSWLRQV XVHG IRU *XOI¶V 
ORDG  IRUHFDVW   IXHO  IRUHFDVWV   SODQQLQJ  SURFHVVHV   H[LVWLQJ  UHVRXUFHV   DQG  IXWXUH 
FDSDFLW\ QHHGV DQG UHVRXUFHV   7KH UHVRXUFH SODQQLQJ SURFHVV XWLOL]HG E\ *XOI WR 
GHWHUPLQH LWV IXWXUH FDSDFLW\ QHHGV GHVFULEHG LQ WKLV 7<63 ZDV FRRUGLQDWHG ZLWK 
WKH  6RXWKHUQ  HOHFWULF  V\VWHP  ,QWHJUDWHG  5HVRXUFH  3ODQQLQJ   6(6  ,53   SURFHVV   
7KDW  SURFHVV  LQFOXGHG  *XOI  DQG  WKUHH  6RXWKHUQ  HOHFWULF  V\VWHP   6(6   UHWDLO 
RSHUDWLQJ FRPSDQLHV  $ODEDPD 3RZHU &RPSDQ\  *HRUJLD 3RZHU &RPSDQ\  DQG 
0LVVLVVLSSL 3RZHU &RPSDQ\   

 

1

  

7KH  UHVRXUFH  QHHGV  DUH  GULYHQ  E\  WKH  GHPDQG  IRUHFDVW  WKDW  LQFOXGHV  WKH 
ORDG UHGXFWLRQ HIIHFWV RI SURMHFWHG GHPDQG VLGH PHDVXUHV WKDW DUH HPEHGGHG LQ 
WKH  IRUHFDVW  SULRU  WR  HQWHULQJ  WKH  JHQHUDWLRQ  PL[  SURFHVV     7KH  JHQHUDWLRQ  PL[ 
SURFHVV LQYROYHV VFUHHQLQJ DYDLODEOH WHFKQRORJLHV LQ RUGHU WR SURGXFH D OLVWLQJ RI 
SUHIHUUHG  UHVRXUFHV  IURP  ZKLFK  WR  VHOHFW  WKH  PRVW  FRVW HIIHFWLYH  SODQ     7KH 
UHVXOWLQJ UHVRXUFH QHHGV DUH WKHQ DOORFDWHG DPRQJ *XOI DQG WKH WKUHH 6(6 UHWDLO 
RSHUDWLQJ  FRPSDQLHV  EDVHG  RQ  UHVHUYH  UHTXLUHPHQWV   DQG  HDFK  FRPSDQ\  WKHQ 
GHWHUPLQHV  WKH  UHVRXUFH V  WKDW ZLOO  EHVW  PHHW  LWV  FXVWRPHUV¶  ORDG  DQG  UHOLDELOLW\ 
QHHGV  
*XOI LQGLFDWHG LQ LWV      7<63 WKDW JHQHUDWLQJ FDSDFLW\ ZRXOG EH QHHGHG 
IROORZLQJ WKH H[SLUDWLRQ RI *XOI¶V     PHJDZDWW  0:  3RZHU 3XUFKDVH $JUHHPHQW 
 33$  ZLWK 6KHOO (QHUJ\ 1RUWK $PHULFD  6KHOO 33$    $OWKRXJK *XOI¶V SHDN GHPDQG 
DQG HQHUJ\ ORDGV IRU WKH           SODQQLQJ F\FOH DUH IRUHFDVW WR EH VOLJKWO\ ORZHU 
WKDQ WKH ORDGV GLVFXVVHG LQ *XOI¶V      7<63  *XOI¶V UHVHUYH PDUJLQ WDUJHW GHILFLW 
ZLOO EH DSSUR[LPDWHO\     0:V LQ      ZKHQ WKH 6KHOO 33$ H[SLUHV   ,I QR QHZ 
UHVRXUFHV  DUH  DGGHG  DQG  IXWXUH  *XOI  XQLW  UHWLUHPHQWV  ZHUH  WR  RFFXU   WKLV  GHILFLW 
FRXOG LQFUHDVH WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\     0:V E\        :LWK WKH H[SLUDWLRQ RI WKH 6KHOO 
33$  D IXWXUH FDSDFLW\ UHVRXUFH DGGLWLRQ V   FRPELQHG ZLWK FDSDFLW\ DQG HQHUJ\ 
VXSSOLHG  IURP  *XOI¶V  H[LVWLQJ  JHQHUDWLRQ  IOHHW   ZLOO  EH  UHTXLUHG  WR  UHOLDEO\  VHUYH 
*XOI¶V UHWDLO FXVWRPHUV WKURXJK WKH SODQQLQJ F\FOH  
&RQVLVWHQW  ZLWK  ODVW  \HDU¶V  7<63   *XOI¶V        7<63  LQGLFDWHV  WKDW  WKH 
OHDGLQJ RSWLRQ IRU *XOI¶V QH[W VHOI EXLOG UHVRXUFH QHHGHG WR PHHW *XOI¶V REOLJDWLRQ 
WR  VHUYH  LWV  FXVWRPHUV  LV  D  GXDO IXHO    RQ    FRPELQHG  F\FOH   &&   XQLW  ZLWK  D 
VXPPHU  UDWLQJ  RI       0:V  ZLWK  DQ  LQ VHUYLFH  GDWH  RI  -XQH        ORFDWHG  DW  WKH 
 

2

  

1RUWK (VFDPELD VLWH   'HWDLOV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKLV SURSRVHG && XQLW DUH VKRZQ RQ 
6FKHGXOH   RI WKLV 7<63   7KH FXUUHQW QDWXUDO JDV SULFH IRUHFDVW SURMHFWV ORZ SULFHV 
WR  FRQWLQXH  WKURXJK  WKH  FXUUHQW  SODQQLQJ  F\FOH   LQ  WXUQ  UHLQIRUFLQJ  WKH  YDOXH  RI 
DGGLQJ QDWXUDO JDV UHVRXUFHV WR *XOI¶V V\VWHP    
*XOI FRQWLQXHV WR SXUFKDVH UHQHZDEOH HQHUJ\ JHQHUDWHG E\ PXQLFLSDO VROLG 
ZDVWH  06:   VRODU  DQG ZLQG IDFLOLWLHV   *XOI¶V FRQWUDFW ZLWK WKH %D\ &RXQW\ 06: 
IDFLOLW\ SURYLGHV IRU WKH SXUFKDVH RI HQHUJ\ IRU D VL[ \HDU SHULRG HQGLQJ -XO\        
*XOI¶V VRODU HQHUJ\ SXUFKDVH DJUHHPHQWV  HDFK KDYLQJ WHUPV RI    \HDUV  SURYLGH 
IRU WKH SXUFKDVH RI HQHUJ\ IURP WKUHH VRODU IDFLOLWLHV ORFDWHG LQ 1RUWKZHVW )ORULGD 
WKDW FDPH RQ OLQH LQ        7KH &RPSDQ\¶V WZR ZLQG HQHUJ\ SXUFKDVH DJUHHPHQWV 
ZLWK 0RUJDQ 6WDQOH\ &DSLWDO *URXS KDYH WHUPV H[WHQGLQJ WKURXJK      DQG EHJDQ 
GHOLYHULQJ HQHUJ\ WR *XOI LQ      DQG       UHVSHFWLYHO\   7KHVH UHQHZDEOH HQHUJ\ 
SXUFKDVH  DJUHHPHQWV   DV  ZHOO  DV  WKH  SRWHQWLDO  WR  DGG  DGGLWLRQDO  UHQHZDEOH 
UHVRXUFHV  WR  *XOI¶V  V\VWHP   DUH  GLVFXVVHG  LQ  PRUH  GHWDLO  LQ  WKH  5HQHZDEOH 
5HVRXUFHV VHFWLRQ RI WKLV 7<63  
2Q -DQXDU\          *XOI 3RZHU EHFDPH D VXEVLGLDU\ RI 1H[W(UD (QHUJ\  
,QF   ZKLFK DOVR RZQV )ORULGD 3RZHU   /LJKW &RPSDQ\  )3/    %HJLQQLQJ LQ       
WKH UHVRXUFH SODQQLQJ DQDO\VHV IRU *XOI 3RZHU WKDW ZHUH IRUPHUO\ SHUIRUPHG E\ 
6&6 ZLOO EH SHUIRUPHG E\ WKH UHVRXUFH SODQQLQJ JURXS DW )3/   $W WKH WLPH RI *XOI 
3RZHU¶V        7<63  ILOLQJ   QHZ  UHVRXUFH  SODQQLQJ  DQDO\VHV  KDYH  EHHQ  LQLWLDWHG 
DQG DUH H[SHFWHG WR FRQWLQXH WKURXJKRXW        ,W LV H[SHFWHG WKDW D QXPEHU RI 
UHVRXUFH RSWLRQV ZLOO EH DQDO\]HG WR GHWHUPLQH LI WKH\ ZRXOG EH FRVW HIIHFWLYH IRU 
*XOI 3RZHU¶V FXVWRPHUV   7KHVH UHVRXUFH RSWLRQV PD\ LQFOXGH  EXW QRW QHFHVVDULO\ 
EH  OLPLWHG  WR   QHZ  VRODU   EDWWHU\  VWRUDJH   FRDO WR JDV  FRQYHUVLRQV   FRPEXVWLRQ 
 

3

  

WXUELQHV  FRPELQHG F\FOH XQLWV  XQLW XSJUDGHV  UHWLUHPHQWV  DQG QHZ WUDQVPLVVLRQ 
OLQHV   
7KHUHIRUH   WKH  UHVRXUFH  SODQ  SUHVHQWHG  LQ  *XOI  3RZHU¶V        7<63  LV 
VXEMHFW  WR  IXWXUH  FKDQJH  EDVHG  RQ  WKH  UHVXOWV  RI  WKH  QHZ  UHVRXUFH  SODQQLQJ 
DQDO\VHV   $Q\ FKDQJHV WR *XOI 3RZHU¶V UHVRXUFH SODQ ZLOO EH VKRZQ DQG GLVFXVVHG 
LQ *XOI 3RZHU¶V      7<63 ILOLQJ  

 

4

 CHAPTER I

DESCRIPTION OF EXISTING FACILITIES

 

'(6&5,37,21 2) (;,67,1* )$&,/,7,(6 
 
 
 

*XOI  RZQV  DQG  RSHUDWHV  JHQHUDWLQJ  IDFLOLWLHV  DW  IRXU  VLWHV  LQ  1RUWKZHVW 
)ORULGD  3ODQWV &ULVW  6PLWK  3HD 5LGJH  DQG 3HUGLGR    *XOI DOVR RZQV D    SHUFHQW 
XQGLYLGHG  RZQHUVKLS  LQWHUHVW  LQ  8QLW     DQG  8QLW     DQG  D  SURSRUWLRQDO  XQGLYLGHG 
RZQHUVKLS  LQWHUHVW  LQ  WKH  DVVRFLDWHG  FRPPRQ  IDFLOLWLHV  DW  0LVVLVVLSSL  3RZHU 
&RPSDQ\¶V 'DQLHO (OHFWULF *HQHUDWLQJ )DFLOLW\   *XOI KDV D    SHUFHQW XQGLYLGHG 
RZQHUVKLS VKDUH LQ 8QLW   DQG D SURSRUWLRQDO XQGLYLGHG RZQHUVKLS LQWHUHVW LQ WKH 
DVVRFLDWHG  FRPPRQ  IDFLOLWLHV  DW  WKH  6FKHUHU  (OHFWULF  *HQHUDWLQJ  )DFLOLW\  ORFDWHG 
QHDU  0DFRQ   *HRUJLD   ZKLFK  LV  RSHUDWHG  RQ  *XOI¶V  EHKDOI  E\  *HRUJLD  3RZHU 
&RPSDQ\  WKH XQLW¶V RWKHU FR RZQHU    
$V RI 'HFHPEHU           *XOI¶V IOHHW RI JHQHUDWLQJ XQLWV FRQVLVWV RI VHYHQ 
FRDO ILUHG VWHDP XQLWV  RQH QDWXUDO JDV ILUHG && XQLW  WKUHH VPDOO QDWXUDO JDV ILUHG 
FRPEXVWLRQ WXUELQHV  &7V   RQH RLO ILUHG &7  DQG WZR LQWHUQDO FRPEXVWLRQ HQJLQH 
XQLWV  IXHOHG  E\  ODQGILOO  JDV     6FKHGXOH     VKRZV       0:  RI  VWHDP  JHQHUDWLRQ 
ORFDWHG  DW  WKH  &ULVW  (OHFWULF  *HQHUDWLQJ  )DFLOLW\  QHDU  3HQVDFROD   )ORULGD     7KH 
/DQVLQJ 6PLWK (OHFWULF *HQHUDWLQJ )DFLOLW\ QHDU 3DQDPD &LW\  )ORULGD  LQFOXGHV     
0:  VXPPHU UDWLQJ  RI && DQG    0:  VXPPHU UDWLQJ  RI &7 JHQHUDWLQJ IDFLOLWLHV   
*XOI¶V 3HD 5LGJH )DFLOLW\  LQ 3DFH  )ORULGD  FRQVLVWV RI WKUHH &7V DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK 
DQ H[LVWLQJ FXVWRPHU¶V FRJHQHUDWLRQ IDFLOLW\  ZKLFK DGGV    0:  VXPPHU UDWLQJ  
WR  *XOI¶V  H[LVWLQJ  FDSDFLW\     7KH  3HUGLGR  /DQGILOO  *DV WR (QHUJ\  )DFLOLW\  LQ 
(VFDPELD  &RXQW\   )ORULGD   SURYLGHV     0:  IURP  WZR  LQWHUQDO  FRPEXVWLRQ 
JHQHUDWLQJ  XQLWV     ,QFOXGLQJ  *XOI¶V  RZQHUVKLS  LQWHUHVW  LQ  WKH  'DQLHO  IRVVLO  VWHDP 

 

5

  

8QLWV   DQG   DQG WKH 6FKHUHU IRVVLO VWHDP 8QLW    6FKHGXOH   VKRZV *XOI¶V WRWDO 
QHW VXPPHU JHQHUDWLQJ FDSDELOLW\  DV RI 'HFHPEHU           WR EH       0: DQG 
LWV WRWDO QHW ZLQWHU JHQHUDWLQJ FDSDELOLW\ WR EH       0:  
*XOI¶V  H[LVWLQJ  V\VWHP  LQ  1RUWKZHVW  )ORULGD   LQFOXGLQJ  PDMRU  JHQHUDWLQJ 
SODQWV  VXEVWDWLRQV  DQG WUDQVPLVVLRQ OLQHV  LV VKRZQ RQ WKH V\VWHP PDS RQ SDJH 
   RI  WKLV  7<63     6SHFLILF  GDWD  UHODWHG  WR  *XOI¶V  H[LVWLQJ  JHQHUDWLQJ  IDFLOLWLHV  LV 
SUHVHQWHG RQ 6FKHGXOH   RI WKLV 7<63  

 

6

 7

3HD 5LGJH

6FKHUHU 

 $  

 $ 

'DQLHO 

/DQVLQJ 6PLWK 

&ULVW

3ODQW 1DPH

   

 

 
 
 

 

 
 

 
$

 
 
 
 

/RFDWLRQ

8QLW
1R 

6DQWD 5RVD &RXQW\
    1   :

0RQURH &RXQW\  *$

-DFNVRQ &RXQW\  06
    6  :

%D\ &RXQW\
    6   :

(VFDPELD &RXQW\
    1   :

   

   

 

 

&7
&7
&7

)6

)6
)6

&&
&7

)6
)6
)6
)6

8QLW
7\SH

   

   

1*
1*
1*

&

&
&

1*
/2

&
&
&
&

  
  
  

  

  
  

  
  

1*
1*
1*
  

         )XHO
3UL
$OW
 

     

   

3/
3/
3/

55

55
55

3/
7.

:$
:$
:$
:$

  
  
  

  

  
  

  
  

3/
3/
3/
  

 )XHO 7UDQVS
3UL
$OW

   

        6&+('8/(  
(;,67,1* *(1(5$7,1* )$&,/,7,(6
      $6 2) '(&(0%(5         

        *8/) 32:(5 &203$1<

  
  
  

  

  
  

  
  

     
     
     

     

     
     

     
     

     
     
     
     

&RP
O ,Q 
6HUYLFH
0R <U

$OW 
)XHO
'D\V
8VH

 
 
 
  

    

   

 

     
     
     

     

     
     

     
     

     
     
     
     

([SWG
5HWUPQW
0R <U

    

     
     
     

      

       

       
       

       

       
      

       

      
      
       
       

         

*HQ 0D[
1DPHSODWH
.:

      

    

   
   
   

    

    
   
   
   

     

     
     

     

     
    

     

    
    
     
     

     

     

     
     

     

     
    

     

    
    
     
     

     

    1HW &DSDELOLW\
6XPPHU :LQWHU
0:
0:

    

3DJH   RI  

 8

3HUGLGR /)*

3ODQW 1DPH

   

127(6    

$EEUHYLDWLRQV 

 
 

/RFDWLRQ

8QLW
1R 

,&
,&

8QLW
7\SH

   

   

/)*
/)*

   

3/
3/

  
  

 )XHO 7UDQVS
3UL
$OW

   

 

3/   3LSHOLQH
:$   :DWHU
7.   7UXFN
55   5DLOURDG

    

     
     

([SWG
5HWUPQW
0R <U

)XHO 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ

     
     

&RP
O ,Q 
6HUYLFH
0R <U

$OW 
)XHO
'D\V
8VH

  
  

    

   

 $   8QLW FDSDELOLWLHV VKRZQ UHSUHVHQW *XOI
V SRUWLRQ RI 'DQLHO XQLWV             DQG 6FKHUHU 8QLW           

&   &RDO 
/2   /LJKW 2LO
,&   ,QWHUQDO &RPEXVWLRQ
/)*   /DQGILOO *DV

  
  

         )XHO
3UL
$OW

     

7\SH DQG )XHO

)6   )RVVLO 6WHDP
&7   &RPEXVWLRQ 7XUELQH
&&   &RPELQHG &\FOH
1*   1DWXUDO *DV

(VFDPELD &RXQW\

   

   

6&+('8/(  
(;,67,1* *(1(5$7,1* )$&,/,7,(6
      $6 2) '(&(0%(5         

7RWDO 6\VWHP

       
       

       

*HQ 0D[
1DPHSODWH
.:

      

    

     

   
   

   

     

   
   

   

    1HW &DSDELOLW\
6XPPHU :LQWHU
0:
0:

    

  3DJH   RI  

 To
Barry

To
Silverhill

ESCAMBIA
CO.

9

TRAN
ION

SMISS

HURLBURT AFB TAP SWITCH

BLACKWATER
STATE
FOREST

DUKE ENERGY 230 KV LINES

POWERSOUTH 46 kV LINES

POWERSOUTH 115 kV LINES

46 KV LINES

SHALIMAR TAP SWITCH

OKALOOSA
CO.

POWERSOUTH GENERATING PLANT

POWERSOUTH SUBSTATION

POWERSOUTH SWITCH FACILITY

GPCO SWITCH FACILITY

GPCO SUBSTATION

LINE

GPCO STEAM PLANT

AVALON TAP SWITCH

GAS

SANTA ROSA
CO.

IDA

FLOR

5mi

0

5mi

SCALE IN MILES

HENDERSON PARK

EAST CRESTVIEW TAP SWITCH

10mi

GLEN TAP SWITCH

PAXTON TAP SWITCH

To
Florala

BAY
CO.

HATHAWAY TAP SWITCH

To
Pinckard

RA N

AG
AS T

SMIS

NE

SIO
N LI

BONIFAY TAP SWITCH

GRACEVILLE

PARKER TAP SWITCH
TYNDALL #1 TAP SWITCH

FLO
RID

GRACEVILLE TAP SWITCH

WASHINGTON
CO.
VERNON TAP SWITCH

SUNNY HILLS TAP SWITCH

HOLMES
CO.

LULLWATER TAP SWITCH

GENEVA TAP SWITCH

To
Geneva

POWERSOUTH EASTERN LAKE TAP SWITCH

POWERSOUTH GRAYTON BEACH TAP SWITCH

WALTON
CO.

CARYVILLE TAP SWITCH

To
Pinckard

GULF POWER COMPANY TRANSMISSION & SUBSTATION SYSTEM

115 KV LINES

To
Flomaton

230 KV LINES

To North
Brewton

JACKSON
CO.

ALFORD TAP SWITCH

To
Port St. Joe

GULF
CO.

CALHOUN
CO.

ALFORD

To
Farley

FRANKLIN
CO.

LIBERTY
CO.

To
South
Bainbridge

GADSDEN
CO.

To
Woodruff

 CHAPTER II

FORECAST OF ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND AND
ENERGY CONSUMPTION

*8/) 32:(5 &203$1< 
/2$' )25(&$67,1* 0(7+2'2/2*< 
29(59,(: 
 
*XOI  YLHZV  WKH  IRUHFDVWLQJ  HIIRUW  DV  D  G\QDPLF  SURFHVV  UHTXLULQJ  RQJRLQJ 
DFWLYLWLHV WR \LHOG UHVXOWV WKDW DOORZ LQIRUPHG SODQQLQJ DQG GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ   7KH 
WRWDO  IRUHFDVW  LV  DQ  LQWHJUDWLRQ  RI  GLIIHUHQW  WHFKQLTXHV  DQG  PHWKRGRORJLHV   HDFK 
DSSOLHG  WR  WKH  WDVN  IRU  ZKLFK  LW  LV  EHVW  VXLWHG     0DQ\  RI  WKH  WHFKQLTXHV  WDNH 
DGYDQWDJH RI WKH H[WHQVLYH GDWD PDGH DYDLODEOH WKURXJK WKH &RPSDQ\
V FXVWRPHU 
VHUYLFH  HIIRUWV     7KHVH  HIIRUWV  DUH  SUHGLFDWHG  RQ  WKH  SKLORVRSK\  RI  VWULYLQJ  WR 
XQGHUVWDQG WKH QHHGV  SHUFHSWLRQV  DQG PRWLYDWLRQV RI FXVWRPHUV    
7KH )RUHFDVWLQJ JURXS LQ *XOI 3RZHU¶V )LQDQFH RUJDQL]DWLRQ LV UHVSRQVLEOH 
IRU SUHSDULQJ IRUHFDVWV RI FXVWRPHUV  HQHUJ\  DQG SHDN GHPDQG   $ GHVFULSWLRQ RI 
WKH DVVXPSWLRQV DQG PHWKRGV XVHG LQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI WKHVH IRUHFDVWV IROORZV 

 

10

 ,  

$668037,216 

 
$  

(&2120,& 287/22. 

 

7KH HFRQRPLF DVVXPSWLRQV XVHG WR GHYHORS *XOI¶V IRUHFDVW RI FXVWRPHUV  

HQHUJ\ VDOHV  DQG SHDN GHPDQG IRU WKLV 7HQ <HDU 6LWH 3ODQ ZHUH GHULYHG IURP WKH 
0D\      HFRQRPLF SURMHFWLRQ SURYLGHG E\ ,+6 0DUNLW    
7KH 0D\      HFRQRPLF SURMHFWLRQ DVVXPHG WKH )HGHUDO 5HVHUYH ZRXOG 
FRQWLQXH WKH QRUPDOL]DWLRQ RI PRQHWDU\ SROLF\   8 6  UHDO JURVV GRPHVWLF SURGXFW 
 *'3   ZDV  H[SHFWHG  WR  JURZ        LQ        DQG           7KH  8 6   HFRQRPLF 
H[SDQVLRQ  ZDV  SURMHFWHG  WR  FRQWLQXH  EHFDXVH  RI  VWHDG\  JURZWK  LQ  FRQVXPHU 
VSHQGLQJ   ZKLFK  LV  VXSSRUWHG  E\  LPSURYLQJ  KRXVHKROG  ILQDQFHV   ORZ 
XQHPSOR\PHQW  DQG KLJKHU KRPH YDOXHV   
 
%  

1257+:(67 )/25,'$ (&2120,& 287/22. 
*XOI¶V  UHWDLO  VHUYLFH  DUHD  LV  JHQHUDOO\  UHSUHVHQWHG  E\  WKUHH  0HWURSROLWDQ 

6WDWLVWLFDO  $UHDV   06$V      3HQVDFROD )HUU\  3DVV %UHQW   &UHVWYLHZ )RUW  :DOWRQ 
%HDFK 'HVWLQ   DQG  3DQDPD  &LW\     ,+6  0DUNLW  SURMHFWHG  WKDW  WKH  HFRQRP\  LQ 
1RUWKZHVW )ORULGD ZRXOG H[SHULHQFH VWHDG\ JURZWK WKURXJKRXW WKH IRUHFDVW SHULRG   
,+6  0DUNLW¶V  0D\        HFRQRPLF  SURMHFWLRQ  ZDV  GHYHORSHG  SULRU  WR  +XUULFDQH 
0LFKDHO   ZKLFK  RFFXUUHG  LQ  2FWREHU         WKHUHIRUH   WKH  HFRQRPLF  RXWORRN  IRU 
1RUWKZHVW )ORULGD GRHV QRW UHIOHFW WKH LPSDFWV IURP +XUULFDQH 0LFKDHO  
1RUWKZHVW  )ORULGD¶V  UHDO  GLVSRVDEOH  SHUVRQDO  LQFRPH  LQFUHDVHG        LQ 
     DQG      LQ        5HDO GLVSRVDEOH SHUVRQDO LQFRPH ZDV SURMHFWHG WR JURZ 
RYHU  WKH  QH[W  ILYH  \HDUV  DW  DQ  DYHUDJH  DQQXDO  UDWH  RI           6LQFH         WKH 

 

11

 UHJLRQ¶V HPSOR\PHQW KDV VKRZQ VWHDG\ \HDU RYHU \HDU JURZWK   (PSOR\PHQW ZDV 
SURMHFWHG  WR  JURZ  DW  DQ  DYHUDJH  DQQXDO  UDWH  RI        RYHU  WKH  QH[W  ILYH  \HDUV   
6LQJOH  IDPLO\  KRXVLQJ  VWDUWV  KDYH  VKRZQ  PRGHVW  LPSURYHPHQWV  VLQFH        DQG 
UHWXUQHG WR QHDU QRUPDO OHYHOV LQ        3RSXODWLRQ JURZWK LQ 1RUWKZHVW )ORULGD 
ZDV      LQ      DQG ZDV SURMHFWHG WR PDLQWDLQ DQ DYHUDJH DQQXDO UDWH RI      
IRU WKH QH[W ILYH \HDUV   2YHU WKH ORQJ UXQ  1RUWKZHVW )ORULGD ZDV SURMHFWHG WR VHH 
VWHDG\ JURZWK WKURXJKRXW WKH IRUHFDVW SHULRG  
*XOI¶V SURMHFWLRQV LQFRUSRUDWH HOHFWULF SULFH DVVXPSWLRQV GHULYHG IURP WKH 
     *XOI 3RZHU 2IILFLDO /RQJ 5DQJH )RUHFDVW   7KH IROORZLQJ WDEOHV SURYLGH D   
\HDU VXPPDU\ RI DVVXPSWLRQV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK *XOI¶V IRUHFDVW 

 

12

 7$%/(   
 
1$7,21$/ (&2120,& 6800$5< 
$9(5$*( $118$/ *52:7+ 5$7(6 
            
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

*'3 *URZWK 

      

,QWHUHVW 5DWH 
    <HDU $$$ %RQGV  

      

,QIODWLRQ 

      

 
 
 
 
 
 
7$%/(   
 
$5($ '(02*5$3+,& 6800$5< 
            
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3RSXODWLRQ *DLQ 

       

$YHUDJH $QQXDO  
+RXVHKROG *DLQ 

      

$YHUDJH $QQXDO                                          
3RSXODWLRQ *URZWK 
      
$YHUDJH $QQXDO  
+RXVHKROG *URZWK 

 
 

 

 

13

      

 ,,  

&86720(5 )25(&$67 

 
$  

5(6,'(17,$/  &200(5&,$/  $1' ,1'8675,$/ &86720(5 
)25(&$67 
7KH  VKRUW WHUP  IRUHFDVWV  RI  UHVLGHQWLDO   FRPPHUFLDO   DQG  LQGXVWULDO  QRQ 

OLJKWLQJ  FXVWRPHUV  ZHUH  EDVHG  SULPDULO\  RQ  SURMHFWLRQV  SUHSDUHG  E\  *XOI¶V  ILHOG 
PDUNHWLQJ  PDQDJHUV  ZLWK  WKH  DVVLVWDQFH  RI  WKHLU  ILHOG  HPSOR\HHV     7KHVH 
SURMHFWLRQV  UHIOHFW  UHFHQW  KLVWRULFDO  WUHQGV  LQ  QHW  FXVWRPHU  JDLQV DQG  DQWLFLSDWHG 
HIIHFWV  RI  FKDQJHV  LQ  WKH  ORFDO  HFRQRP\   WKH  UHDO  HVWDWH  PDUNHW   SODQQHG 
FRQVWUXFWLRQ SURMHFWV  DQG IDFWRUV DIIHFWLQJ SRSXODWLRQ VXFK DV PLOLWDU\ SHUVRQQHO 
PRYHPHQWV DQG FKDQJHV LQ ORFDO LQGXVWULDO SURGXFWLRQ    
$IWHU FROOHFWLQJ LQLWLDO  LQSXW IURP ILHOG PDQDJHUV  IRUHFDVWHUV UHYLHZHG WKH 
RQH \HDU RXW FXVWRPHU SURMHFWLRQV E\ UDWH VFKHGXOH  FKHFNLQJ IRU FRQVLVWHQF\ ZLWK 
KLVWRULFDO WUHQGV  FRQVLVWHQF\ ZLWK HFRQRPLF RXWORRNV  DQG FRQVLVWHQF\ DFURVV WKH 
WKUHH 06$V LQ *XOI¶V VHUYLFH DUHD   )RUHFDVWHUV WKHQ VXSSOLHG ILHOG PDQDJHUV ZLWK 
GUDIW VHFRQG \HDU RXW FXVWRPHU SURMHFWLRQV EDVHG RQ QXPEHU RI KRXVHKROGV IURP 
,+6 0DUNLW  ZKLFK WKH ILHOG PDQDJHUV UHYLHZHG DQG PRGLILHG DV QHFHVVDU\    
*XOI XWLOL]HG JURZWK LQ WKH QXPEHU RI KRXVHKROGV WR H[WHQG WKH VKRUW WHUP 
UHVLGHQWLDO IRUHFDVW RI FXVWRPHUV WR WKH ORQJ WHUP KRUL]RQ   %H\RQG WKH VKRUW WHUP 
SHULRG  FRPPHUFLDO FXVWRPHUV ZHUH IRUHFDVW DV D IXQFWLRQ RI UHVLGHQWLDO FXVWRPHUV  
UHIOHFWLQJ WKH JURZWK RI FRPPHUFLDO VHUYLFHV WR PHHW WKH QHHGV RI QHZ UHVLGHQWV   
/RQJ WHUP SURMHFWLRQV RI LQGXVWULDO FXVWRPHUV DUH EDVHG RQ LQSXW IURP *XOI¶V ILHOG 
PDUNHWLQJ PDQDJHUV 

 

14

 %  

287'225 /,*+7,1* &86720(5 )25(&$67 
*XOI SURMHFWHG WKH QXPEHU RI RXWGRRU OLJKWLQJ FXVWRPHUV E\ UDWH DQG FODVV 

EDVHG RQ KLVWRULFDO JURZWK UDWHV DQG LQSXW IURP *XOI¶V OLJKWLQJ WHDP WR JDLQ LQVLJKW 
LQWR IXWXUH WUHQGV  
 
,,,  

(1(5*< 6$/(6 )25(&$67 

 
$  

5(6,'(17,$/ 6$/(6 )25(&$67 
7KH  VKRUW WHUP  QRQ OLJKWLQJ  UHVLGHQWLDO  HQHUJ\  VDOHV  IRUHFDVW  ZDV 

GHYHORSHG XWLOL]LQJ D PXOWLSOH OLQHDU UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV   0RQWKO\ XVH SHU FXVWRPHU 
SHU ELOOLQJ GD\ ZDV HVWLPDWHG EDVHG RQ KLVWRULFDO GDWD  QRUPDO ZHDWKHU  QDWLRQDO 
HQHUJ\ HIILFLHQF\ VWDQGDUGV  DQG SULFH RI HOHFWULFLW\   7KH PRGHO RXWSXW ZDV WKHQ 
PXOWLSOLHG  E\  WKH  SURMHFWHG  QXPEHU  RI  QRQ OLJKWLQJ  UHVLGHQWLDO  FXVWRPHUV  DQG 
SURMHFWHG ELOOLQJ GD\V E\ PRQWK WR H[SDQG WR WKH WRWDO UHVLGHQWLDO FODVV   
/RQJ WHUP  SURMHFWLRQV  RI  UHVLGHQWLDO  VDOHV  ZHUH  GHYHORSHG  XWLOL]LQJ  WKH 
/RDG0$3 5  PRGHO   DQ  HOHFWULF  XWLOLW\  HQG XVH  IRUHFDVWLQJ  WRRO     /RDG0$3 5 
IRUHFDVWV HQG XVH RU DSSOLDQFH VSHFLILF UHVLGHQWLDO HQHUJ\ GHPDQG XVLQJ D YDULHW\ 
RI  GHPRJUDSKLF   KRXVLQJ   HFRQRPLF   HQHUJ\   DQG  ZHDWKHU  LQIRUPDWLRQ     *XOI 
XWLOL]HG  JURZWK  UDWHV  IURP  WKH  /RDG0$3 5  SURMHFWLRQ  WR  H[WHQG  WKH  VKRUW WHUP 
UHVLGHQWLDO VDOHV IRUHFDVW WR WKH ORQJ WHUP KRUL]RQ  
7KH UHVLGHQWLDO VDOHV IRUHFDVW ZDV DGMXVWHG WR UHIOHFW WKH H[SHFWHG LPSDFWV 
RI  FRQVHUYDWLRQ  SURJUDPV  DSSURYHG  LQ  *XOI¶V        '60  SODQ     $GGLWLRQDO 
LQIRUPDWLRQ  RQ  WKH  UHVLGHQWLDO  FRQVHUYDWLRQ  SURJUDPV  DQG  SURJUDP  IHDWXUHV  DUH 
SURYLGHG LQ WKH &RQVHUYDWLRQ 3URJUDPV VHFWLRQ RI WKLV GRFXPHQW   7KH UHVLGHQWLDO 

 

15

 VDOHV IRUHFDVW ZDV DOVR DGMXVWHG WR UHIOHFW WKH DQWLFLSDWHG LPSDFW RI WKH FRQWLQXHG 
LQWURGXFWLRQ RI HOHFWULF YHKLFOHV WR WKH PDUNHW  
 
%  

&200(5&,$/ 6$/(6 )25(&$67 
7KH  VKRUW WHUP  QRQ OLJKWLQJ  FRPPHUFLDO  HQHUJ\  VDOHV  IRUHFDVW  ZDV  DOVR 

GHYHORSHG  XWLOL]LQJ  PXOWLSOH  OLQHDU  UHJUHVVLRQ  DQDO\VHV    7KH  HQHUJ\  IRUHFDVW IRU 
WKH FRPPHUFLDO FODVV ZDV VHSDUDWHG LQWR WZR VHJPHQWV  VPDOO FRPPHUFLDO  UDWH 
VFKHGXOHV  *6  DQG  )ODW *6   DQG  ODUJH  FRPPHUFLDO   DOO  RWKHU  FRPPHUFLDO  UDWH 
VFKHGXOHV      6HSDUDWH  PRGHOV  ZHUH  GHYHORSHG  IRU  HDFK  VHJPHQW  WR  HVWLPDWH 
PRQWKO\  XVH  SHU  FXVWRPHU  SHU  ELOOLQJ  GD\     7KH  HVWLPDWHV  ZHUH  EDVHG  XSRQ 
KLVWRULFDO GDWD  QRUPDO ZHDWKHU  FKDQJHV LQ DYHUDJH OLJKWLQJ HIILFLHQFLHV  DQG SULFH 
RI  HOHFWULFLW\     7KH  RXWSXWV  IURP  HDFK  PRGHO  ZHUH  PXOWLSOLHG  E\  WKH  SURMHFWHG 
QXPEHU RI FXVWRPHUV LQ HDFK VHJPHQW DQG WKH SURMHFWHG QXPEHU RI ELOOLQJ GD\V E\ 
PRQWK   7KH IRUHFDVW IRU WKH FRPPHUFLDO FODVV LV WKH VXP RI WKH IRUHFDVW HQHUJ\ 
VDOHV IRU HDFK VHJPHQW  
/RQJ WHUP  SURMHFWLRQV  RI  FRPPHUFLDO  VDOHV  ZHUH  GHYHORSHG  XWLOL]LQJ  WKH 
/RDG0$3 &  PRGHO   DQ  HOHFWULF  XWLOLW\  HQG XVH  IRUHFDVWLQJ  WRRO  WKDW  SURYLGHV  D 
FRQFHSWXDO  IUDPHZRUN  IRU  RUJDQL]LQJ  FRPPHUFLDO  PDUNHW  EXLOGLQJ W\SH  DQG  HQG 
XVH  LQIRUPDWLRQ     *XOI  XWLOL]HG  JURZWK  UDWHV  IURP  WKH  /RDG0$3 &  SURMHFWLRQ  WR 
H[WHQG WKH VKRUW WHUP FRPPHUFLDO VDOHV IRUHFDVW WR WKH ORQJ WHUP KRUL]RQ  
7KH FRPPHUFLDO VDOHV IRUHFDVW ZDV DGMXVWHG WR UHIOHFW WKH H[SHFWHG LPSDFWV 
RI  FRQVHUYDWLRQ  SURJUDPV  DSSURYHG  LQ  *XOI¶V        '60  SODQ     $GGLWLRQDO 
LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH FRPPHUFLDO FRQVHUYDWLRQ SURJUDPV DQG SURJUDP IHDWXUHV DUH 
SURYLGHG LQ WKH &RQVHUYDWLRQ 3URJUDPV VHFWLRQ RI WKLV GRFXPHQW  

 

16

 &  

,1'8675,$/ 6$/(6 )25(&$67 
7KH VKRUW WHUP QRQ OLJKWLQJ LQGXVWULDO HQHUJ\ VDOHV IRUHFDVW ZDV GHYHORSHG 

XVLQJ D FRPELQDWLRQ RI RQ VLWH VXUYH\V RI PDMRU LQGXVWULDO FXVWRPHUV DQG KLVWRULFDO 
DYHUDJH  FRQVXPSWLRQ  SHU  FXVWRPHU     *XOI¶V  ODUJHVW  LQGXVWULDO  FXVWRPHUV  ZHUH 
LQWHUYLHZHG E\ *XOI¶V LQGXVWULDO DFFRXQW UHSUHVHQWDWLYHV WR LGHQWLI\ H[SHFWHG ORDG 
FKDQJHV  GXH  WR  HTXLSPHQW  DGGLWLRQV   UHSODFHPHQWV   RU  FKDQJHV  LQ  RSHUDWLQJ 
VFKHGXOHV DQG FKDUDFWHULVWLFV   7KH VKRUW WHUP IRUHFDVW RI PRQWKO\ VDOHV WR WKHVH 
PDMRU LQGXVWULDO FXVWRPHUV ZDV D V\QWKHVLV RI WKH GHWDLOHG VXUYH\ LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG 
KLVWRULFDO PRQWKO\ WR DQQXDO HQHUJ\ UDWLRV    
7KH  IRUHFDVW  RI  VDOHV  WR  WKH  UHPDLQLQJ  VPDOOHU  LQGXVWULDO  FXVWRPHUV  ZDV 
GHYHORSHG E\ UDWH VFKHGXOH DQG PRQWK  XVLQJ KLVWRULFDO DYHUDJHV   7KH UHVXOWLQJ 
HVWLPDWHV  RI  HQHUJ\  SXUFKDVHV  SHU  FXVWRPHU  ZHUH  PXOWLSOLHG  E\  WKH  H[SHFWHG 
QXPEHU RI VPDOOHU LQGXVWULDO FXVWRPHUV E\ PRQWK WR H[SDQG WR WKH UDWH OHYHO WRWDOV   
7KH VXP RI WKH HQHUJ\ VDOHV IRUHFDVW IRU WKH PDMRU LQGXVWULDO FXVWRPHUV DQG WKH 
UHPDLQLQJ VPDOOHU LQGXVWULDO FXVWRPHUV UHVXOWHG LQ WKH WRWDO LQGXVWULDO HQHUJ\ VDOHV 
IRUHFDVW   /RQJ WHUP SURMHFWLRQV RI LQGXVWULDO VDOHV ZHUH GHYHORSHG XVLQJ KLVWRULFDO 
DYHUDJHV  
 
'  

287'225 /,*+7,1* 6$/(6 )25(&$67 
2XWGRRU OLJKWLQJ HQHUJ\ IRUHFDVWV ZHUH GHYHORSHG E\ UDWH DQG FODVV XVLQJ 

KLVWRULFDO JURZWK UDWHV DQG LQSXW IURP *XOI¶V OLJKWLQJ WHDP WR JDLQ LQVLJKW LQWR IXWXUH 
WUHQGV 

 

17

  
 

(  

:+2/(6$/( (1(5*< )25(&$67 
7KH IRUHFDVW RI WHUULWRULDO ZKROHVDOH HQHUJ\ VDOHV ZDV GHYHORSHG XWLOL]LQJ D 

PXOWLSOH OLQHDU UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV   0RQWKO\ ZKROHVDOH HQHUJ\ SXUFKDVHV SHU GD\ 
ZHUH  HVWLPDWHG  EDVHG  RQ  KLVWRULFDO  GDWD   QRUPDO  ZHDWKHU   QDWLRQDO  HQHUJ\ 
HIILFLHQF\  VWDQGDUGV   DQG  06$ OHYHO  HPSOR\PHQW     7KH  PRGHO  RXWSXW  ZDV  WKHQ 
PXOWLSOLHG E\ WKH QXPEHU RI GD\V LQ HDFK PRQWK WR H[SDQG WR WKH WRWDO ZKROHVDOH 
HQHUJ\ IRUHFDVW   1R ZKROHVDOH HQHUJ\ VDOHV DUH SURMHFWHG DIWHU 'HFHPEHU      
GXH WR WKH H[SLUDWLRQ RI D ZKROHVDOH FRQWUDFW  
 
)  

&203$1< 86( )25(&$67 
7KH  IRUHFDVW  RI  FRPSDQ\  HQHUJ\  XVH  ZDV  EDVHG  RQ  UHFHQW  KLVWRULFDO 

DYHUDJHV E\ PRQWK  
 
,9  

3($. '(0$1' )25(&$67 
 
*XOI¶V DQQXDO V\VWHP SHDN GHPDQG IRUHFDVW ZDV SUHSDUHG XVLQJ WKH 3HDN 

'HPDQG 0RGHO  3'0    3'0 LQSXWV LQFOXGH KLVWRULFDO ORDG VKDSHV DQG SURMHFWLRQV 
RI QHW HQHUJ\ IRU ORDG  ZKLFK ZHUH EDVHG RQ WKH IRUHFDVW HQHUJ\ VDOHV GHVFULEHG 
SUHYLRXVO\   3'0 VSUHDGV WKH HQHUJ\ SURMHFWLRQV XVLQJ WKH KLVWRULFDO ORDG VKDSHV 
WR  GHYHORS  KRXUO\  V\VWHP  ORDG  VKDSHV     7KH  PRQWKO\  IRUHFDVW  V\VWHP  SHDN 
GHPDQGV DUH WKH VLQJOH KLJKHVW KRXU RI GHPDQG IRU HDFK PRQWK   *XOI¶V SURMHFWHG 
DQQXDO V\VWHP SHDN GHPDQG RFFXUV LQ WKH PRQWK RI -XO\  
7KH  UHVXOWLQJ  PRQWKO\  V\VWHP  SHDN  GHPDQG  SURMHFWLRQV  ZHUH  DGMXVWHG  WR 
UHIOHFW WKH DQWLFLSDWHG LPSDFWV RI FRQVHUYDWLRQ SURJUDPV DSSURYHG LQ *XOI¶V      

 

18

  
 

'60  SODQ     $GGLWLRQDO  LQIRUPDWLRQ  RQ  WKH  SHDN  GHPDQG  LPSDFWV  RI  *XOI¶V 
FRQVHUYDWLRQ SURJUDPV DUH SURYLGHG LQ WKH &RQVHUYDWLRQ 3URJUDPV VHFWLRQ RI WKLV 
GRFXPHQW  
 
9  

'$7$ 6285&(6 
 
*XOI XWLOL]HG KLVWRULFDO FXVWRPHU  HQHUJ\ DQG UHYHQXH GDWD E\ UDWH DQG FODVV  

DQG KLVWRULFDO KRXUO\ ORDG GDWD FRXSOHG ZLWK ZHDWKHU LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP WKH 1DWLRQDO 
2FHDQLF  DQG  $WPRVSKHULF  $GPLQLVWUDWLRQ   12$$   WR  VXSSRUW  WKH  HQHUJ\  DQG 
GHPDQG  PRGHOV     ,QGLYLGXDO  FXVWRPHU  KLVWRULFDO  GDWD  ZDV  XWLOL]HG  LQ  GHYHORSLQJ 
SURMHFWLRQV IRU *XOI¶V ODUJHVW LQGXVWULDO FXVWRPHUV    
*XOI¶V  PRGHOV  DOVR  XWLOL]HG  HFRQRPLF  SURMHFWLRQV  SURYLGHG  E\  ,+6  0DUNLW   
,+6 0DUNLW UHOLHV RQ WKH 8 6  &HQVXV %XUHDX IRU LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ KRXVHKROGV  

 

19

  
 

9,  

&216(59$7,21 352*5$06 

 
*XOI
V IRUHFDVW RI HQHUJ\ VDOHV UHIOHFWV WKH LPSDFWV RI LPSURYLQJ DSSOLDQFH 
HQHUJ\  HIILFLHQF\  VWDQGDUGV   ZKLFK  DUH  SURMHFWHG  WR  UHGXFH  UHVLGHQWLDO  DQG 
FRPPHUFLDO  HQHUJ\  VDOHV  E\       *:KV  E\  \HDU           $GGLWLRQDOO\   *XOI¶V 
IRUHFDVWV  RI  HQHUJ\  VDOHV  DQG  SHDN  GHPDQG  UHIOHFW  WKH  H[SHFWHG  LPSDFWV  RI 
SURJUDPV LQFOXGHG LQ *XOI¶V '60 SODQ  ZKLFK ZDV DSSURYHG E\ WKH &RPPLVVLRQ LQ 
2UGHU  1R   36&         3$$ (*  RQ  $XJXVW                *XOI¶V  FRQVHUYDWLRQ 
SURJUDPV  ZHUH  GHVLJQHG  WR  PHHW  WKH  JRDOV  HVWDEOLVKHG  E\  WKH  &RPPLVVLRQ  LQ 
2UGHU  1R   36&         )2) (*  LQ  'HFHPEHU  RI           )ROORZLQJ  LV  D  EULHI 
GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH FXUUHQWO\ DSSURYHG SURJUDPV DQG WDEOHV LQGLFDWLQJ WKH KLVWRULFDO 
DQG SURMHFWHG FRQVHUYDWLRQ LPSDFWV RI *XOI¶V RQJRLQJ FRQVHUYDWLRQ HIIRUWV  
 
$  

5(6,'(17,$/ &216(59$7,21 
    5HVLGHQWLDO  (QHUJ\  $XGLW  DQG  (GXFDWLRQ  ±  7KLV  SURJUDP  LV  WKH 
SULPDU\  HGXFDWLRQDO  SURJUDP  WR  KHOS  FXVWRPHUV  LPSURYH  WKH 
HQHUJ\  HIILFLHQF\  RI  WKHLU  QHZ  RU  H[LVWLQJ  KRPH  WKURXJK  HQHUJ\ 
FRQVHUYDWLRQ  DGYLFH  DQG  LQIRUPDWLRQ  WKDW  HQFRXUDJHV  WKH 
LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI HIILFLHQF\ PHDVXUHV DQG EHKDYLRUV UHVXOWLQJ LQ 
HQHUJ\ DQG XWLOLW\ ELOO VDYLQJV    
    EnergySelect   7KLV SURJUDP LV GHVLJQHG WR SURYLGH WKH FXVWRPHU 
ZLWK  D  PHDQV  RI  FRQYHQLHQWO\  DQG  DXWRPDWLFDOO\  FRQWUROOLQJ  DQG 
PRQLWRULQJ  HQHUJ\  SXUFKDVHV  LQ  UHVSRQVH  WR  SULFHV  WKDW  YDU\ 
GXULQJ  WKH  GD\  DQG  E\  VHDVRQ  LQ  UHODWLRQ  WR  *XOI¶V  FRVW  RI 

 

20

  
 

SURGXFLQJ  RU  SXUFKDVLQJ  HQHUJ\     7KH  EnergySelect  V\VWHP 
LQFOXGHV  ILHOG  XQLWV  XWLOL]LQJ  D  FRPPXQLFDWLRQ  JDWHZD\   PDMRU 
DSSOLDQFH  ORDG  FRQWURO  UHOD\V   DQG  D  SURJUDPPDEOH  WKHUPRVWDW  
DOO RSHUDWLQJ DW WKH FXVWRPHU
V KRPH  
    &RPPXQLW\ (QHUJ\ 6DYHU 3URJUDP   7KLV SURJUDP LV GHVLJQHG WR 
DVVLVW ORZ LQFRPH IDPLOLHV ZLWK HVFDODWLQJ HQHUJ\ FRVWV WKURXJK 
WKH  GLUHFW  LQVWDOODWLRQ  RI  FRQVHUYDWLRQ  PHDVXUHV  DW  QR  FRVW  WR 
WKHP     7KH  SURJUDP  ZLOO  DOVR  HGXFDWH  IDPLOLHV  RQ  HQHUJ\ 
HIILFLHQF\ WHFKQLTXHV DQG EHKDYLRUDO FKDQJHV WR KHOS FRQWURO WKHLU 
HQHUJ\ XVH DQG UHGXFH WKHLU XWLOLW\ RSHUDWLQJ FRVWV  
    +9$&  (IILFLHQF\  ,PSURYHPHQW  3URJUDP     7KLV  SURJUDP  LV 
GHVLJQHG  WR  LQFUHDVH  HQHUJ\  HIILFLHQF\  DQG  LPSURYH  +9$& 
FRROLQJ V\VWHP SHUIRUPDQFH IRU QHZ DQG H[LVWLQJ KRPHV WKURXJK 
PDLQWHQDQFH  TXDOLW\ LQVWDOODWLRQ  DQG GXFW UHSDLU  
    5HVLGHQWLDO  &XVWRP  ,QFHQWLYH  3URJUDP     7KLV  SURJUDP  ZLOO 
SURPRWH  WKH  LQVWDOODWLRQ  RI  YDULRXV  HQHUJ\  HIILFLHQF\  PHDVXUHV 
DYDLODEOH  WKURXJK  RWKHU  SURJUDPV  LQFOXGLQJ  +9$&   LQVXODWLRQ  
ZLQGRZV   ZDWHU  KHDWLQJ   OLJKWLQJ   DSSOLDQFHV   HWF   LQFOXGLQJ 
DGGLWLRQDO  LQFHQWLYHV  DV  DSSURSULDWH  WR  RYHUFRPH  WKH  VSOLW 
LQFHQWLYH EDUULHU ZKLFK H[LVWV LQ D ODQGORUG UHQWHU VLWXDWLRQ    
    5HVLGHQWLDO  %XLOGLQJ  (IILFLHQF\  3URJUDP     7KLV  SURJUDP  LV 
GHVLJQHG  DV  DQ  XPEUHOOD  HIILFLHQF\  SURJUDP  WR  SURPRWH  WKH 
SXUFKDVH  DQG  LQVWDOODWLRQ  RI  HQHUJ\  VDYLQJ  PHDVXUHV  ±  KLJK 

 

21

  
 

SHUIRUPDQFH  ZLQGRZV   UHIOHFWLYH  URRIV   DQG  (1(5*<  67$5 
ZLQGRZ $ &   IRU UHVLGHQWLDO FXVWRPHUV DV D PHDQV RI UHGXFLQJ 
HQHUJ\ DQG GHPDQG  
 
%  

&200(5&,$/ ,1'8675,$/ &216(59$7,21 
    &RPPHUFLDO ,QGXVWULDO  & ,  (QHUJ\ $QDO\VLV ± 7KLV SURJUDP LV DQ 
LQWHUDFWLYH  RQH  WKDW  SURYLGHV  FRPPHUFLDO  DQG  LQGXVWULDO 
FXVWRPHUV  DVVLVWDQFH  LQ  LGHQWLI\LQJ  HQHUJ\  FRQVHUYDWLRQ 
RSSRUWXQLWLHV   ,W LV D SULPH WRRO IRU WKH *XOI 3RZHU &RPSDQ\ & , 
(QHUJ\ 6SHFLDOLVWV WR XVH WR SHUVRQDOO\ LQWURGXFH D FXVWRPHU WR 
FRQVHUYDWLRQ  PHDVXUHV   LQFOXGLQJ  ORZ  RU  QR FRVW  LPSURYHPHQWV 
RU  QHZ  HOHFWUR WHFKQRORJLHV  WR  UHSODFH  ROG  RU  LQHIILFLHQW 
HTXLSPHQW    
    &RPPHUFLDO +9$& 5HWURFRPPLVVLRQLQJ 3URJUDP   7KLV SURJUDP 
RIIHUV EDVLF UHWURFRPPLVVLRQLQJ DW D UHGXFHG FRVW IRU TXDOLI\LQJ 
FRPPHUFLDO  DQG  LQGXVWULDO  FXVWRPHUV  GHVLJQHG  WR  GLDJQRVH  WKH 
SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH +9$& FRROLQJ XQLW V  ZLWK WKH VXSSRUW RI DQ 
LQGHSHQGHQW  FRPSXWHUL]HG  TXDOLW\  FRQWURO  SURFHVV  DQG  PDNH 
LPSURYHPHQWV WR WKH V\VWHP WR EULQJ LW WR LWV IXOO HIILFLHQF\  
    &RPPHUFLDO  %XLOGLQJ  (IILFLHQF\  3URJUDP     7KLV  SURJUDP  LV 
GHVLJQHG  DV  DQ  XPEUHOOD  HIILFLHQF\  SURJUDP  IRU  H[LVWLQJ 
FRPPHUFLDO DQG LQGXVWULDO FXVWRPHUV WR LQFUHDVH DZDUHQHVV DQG 
FXVWRPHU GHPDQG IRU KLJK HIILFLHQF\  HQHUJ\ VDYLQJ HTXLSPHQW  

 

22

  
 

LQFUHDVH  DYDLODELOLW\  DQG  PDUNHW  SHQHWUDWLRQ  RI  HQHUJ\  HIILFLHQW 
HTXLSPHQW  DQG FRQWULEXWH WRZDUG ORQJ WHUP HQHUJ\ VDYLQJV DQG 
SHDN GHPDQG UHGXFWLRQV  
    &RPPHUFLDO ,QGXVWULDO  &XVWRP  ,QFHQWLYH     7KLV  SURJUDP  LV 
GHVLJQHG  WR  HVWDEOLVK  WKH  FDSDELOLW\  DQG  SURFHVV  WR  RIIHU 
DGYDQFHG  HQHUJ\  VHUYLFHV  DQG  HQHUJ\  HIILFLHQW  HQG XVHU 
HTXLSPHQW   LQFOXGLQJ  FRPSUHKHQVLYH  DXGLWV   GHVLJQ   DQG 
FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI HQHUJ\ FRQVHUYDWLRQ SURMHFWV  QRW RIIHUHG WKURXJK 
RWKHU SURJUDPV WR &RPPHUFLDO RU ,QGXVWULDO FXVWRPHUV  
 
&216(59$7,21 5(68/76 6800$5< 

&  

7KH  IROORZLQJ  WDEOHV  SURYLGH  HVWLPDWHV  RI WKH  UHGXFWLRQV  LQ  SHDN  GHPDQG 
DQG QHW HQHUJ\ IRU ORDG UHDOL]HG E\ *XOI
V FXVWRPHUV DV D UHVXOW RI SDUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ 
*XOI¶V DSSURYHG FRQVHUYDWLRQ SURJUDPV  
 

 

23

  
 
+,6725,&$/
727$/ &216(59$7,21 352*5$06
&808/$7,9( $118$/ 5('8&7,216
$7 *(1(5$725
6800(5
3($.
 .: 
    

:,17(5
3($.
 .: 

1(7 (1(5*<
)25 /2$'
 .:+ 

                                            

     %8'*(7 )25(&$67
727$/ &216(59$7,21 352*5$06
,1&5(0(17$/ $118$/ 5('8&7,216
$7 *(1(5$725

    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

6800(5
3($.
 .: 

:,17(5
3($.
 .: 

1(7 (1(5*<
)25 /2$'
 .:+ 

              
              
              
              
             
             
             
             
             
             

              
              
              
              
              
             
             
             
             
             

                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  

     %8'*(7 )25(&$67
727$/ &216(59$7,21 352*5$06
&808/$7,9( $118$/ 5('8&7,216
$7 *(1(5$725

    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

 

6800(5
3($.
 .: 

:,17(5
3($.
 .: 

             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             

             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             

24

1(7 (1(5*<
)25 /2$'
 .:+ 
                
                
                
                
                
                
                
                
                
                  

 

  
 
+,6725,&$/
5(6,'(17,$/ &216(59$7,21
&808/$7,9( $118$/ 5('8&7,216
$7 *(1(5$725
6800(5
3($.
 .: 
    

:,17(5
3($.
 .: 

1(7 (1(5*<
)25 /2$'
 .:+ 

                                             

     %8'*(7 )25(&$67
5(6,'(17,$/ &216(59$7,21
,1&5(0(17$/ $118$/ 5('8&7,216
$7 *(1(5$725

    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

6800(5

:,17(5

1(7 (1(5*<

3($.
 .: 

3($.
 .: 

)25 /2$'
 .:+ 

              
              
              
              
              
              
              
              
              
              

              
              
              
              
              
             
             
             
             
             

                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  

     %8'*(7 )25(&$67
5(6,'(17,$/ &216(59$7,21
&808/$7,9( $118$/ 5('8&7,216
$7 *(1(5$725

    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

 

6800(5
3($.
 .: 

:,17(5
3($.
 .: 

             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             

             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             

25

1(7 (1(5*<
)25 /2$'
 .:+ 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                   

  
 
+,6725,&$/
&200(5&,$/ ,1'8675,$/ &216(59$7,21
&808/$7,9( $118$/ 5('8&7,216
$7 *(1(5$725
6800(5
3($.
 .: 
    

:,17(5
3($.
 .: 

1(7 (1(5*<
)25 /2$'
 .:+ 

                                             

     %8'*(7 )25(&$67
&200(5&,$/ ,1'8675,$/ &216(59$7,21
,1&5(0(17$/ $118$/ 5('8&7,216
$7 *(1(5$725

    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

6800(5

:,17(5

1(7 (1(5*<

3($.
 .: 

3($.
 .: 

)25 /2$'
 .:+ 

              
              
              
              
              
              
              
              
              
              

               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               

                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  

     %8'*(7 )25(&$67
&200(5&,$/ ,1'8675,$/ &216(59$7,21
&808/$7,9( $118$/ 5('8&7,216
$7 *(1(5$725

    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

 

6800(5
3($.
 .: 

:,17(5
3($.
 .: 

1(7 (1(5*<
)25 /2$'
 .:+ 

             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             

             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             

                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 

26

 

  
 

9,,  

60$// 32:(5 352'8&7,21   5(1(:$%/( (1(5*< 
 

$W  WKH  HQG  RI         QHW  PHWHUHG  LQWHUFRQQHFWLRQV  RI  FXVWRPHU RZQHG 
UHQHZDEOH  V\VWHPV  WRWDOHG         LQ  QXPEHU     ,Q         WKHVH  LQWHUFRQQHFWHG 
UHQHZDEOH  HQHUJ\  V\VWHPV  GHOLYHUHG        *:KV  WR  *XOI¶V  JULG     6LQFH  WKH 
LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ  RI  WKH  QHW  PHWHULQJ  UXOH  LQ  2FWREHU         QHW  PHWHUHG 
LQWHUFRQQHFWLRQV KDYH GHOLYHUHG      *:KV WR *XOI¶V XWLOLW\ JULG  

 

27

 28

3RSXODWLRQ
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       

       
       
       
         
         
         
         
         
         
         

    
    
    

<HDU
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

&$$*
     
     
     

   

    
     
     

    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

0HPEHUV
SHU
+RXVHKROG
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

   

   

    
    
    

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

    
    
    

       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       

5XUDO DQG 5HVLGHQWLDO
$YHUDJH
1R  RI
*:+
&XVWRPHUV
     
       
     
       
     
       
     
       
     
       
     
       
     
       
     
       
     
       
     
       

   

   

     
     
     

      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      

$YHUDJH .:+
&RQVXPSWLRQ
3HU &XVWRPHU
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      


 +LVWRULFDO DQG SURMHFWHG ILJXUHV LQFOXGH 3HQVDFROD  &UHVWYLHZ  DQG 3DQDPD &LW\ 06$V

 

   

6FKHGXOH    
+LVWRU\ DQG )RUHFDVW RI (QHUJ\ &RQVXPSWLRQ DQG
1XPEHU RI &XVWRPHUV E\ &XVWRPHU &ODVV

*8/) 32:(5 &203$1<

     
     
     

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

*:+
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

   

    
    
    

      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      

&RPPHUFLDO
$YHUDJH
1R  RI
&XVWRPHUV
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      

   

     
     
     

      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      

$YHUDJH .:+
&RQVXPSWLRQ
3HU &XVWRPHU
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      

   

 29

   

*:+
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

    
     
     

   

<HDU
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

&$$*
     
     
     
     
    
    

   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

,QGXVWULDO
$YHUDJH
1R  RI
&XVWRPHUV
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

   

    
     
     

         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         

$YHUDJH .:+
&RQVXPSWLRQ
3HU &XVWRPHU
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         

   

    
    
    

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

5DLOURDGV
DQG 5DLOZD\V
*:+
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

   

    
    
    

  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

6WUHHW  
+LJKZD\
/LJKWLQJ
*:+
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

   

6FKHGXOH    
+LVWRU\ DQG )RUHFDVW RI (QHUJ\ &RQVXPSWLRQ DQG
1XPEHU RI &XVWRPHUV E\ &XVWRPHU &ODVV

*8/) 32:(5 &203$1<

    
    
    

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

2WKHU 6DOHV
WR 3XEOLF
$XWKRULWLHV
*:+
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

   

    
     
    

      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      

7RWDO 6DOHV
WR 8OWLPDWH
&RQVXPHUV
*:+
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      

   

 30

   
6DOHV IRU
5HVDOH
*:+
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

     
    
    

   

<HDU
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

&$$*
     
     
     

     
     
     

   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

8WLOLW\ 8VH
  /RVVHV
*:+
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

    
     
     

      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      

1HW (QHUJ\
IRU /RDG
*:+
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      

    
    
    

   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

2WKHU
&XVWRPHUV
 $YHUDJH 1R  
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

6FKHGXOH    
+LVWRU\ DQG )RUHFDVW RI (QHUJ\ &RQVXPSWLRQ DQG
1XPEHU RI &XVWRPHUV E\ &XVWRPHU &ODVV
  
   
   
   

*8/) 32:(5 &203$1<

    
    
    

       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       

7RWDO
1R  RI
&XVWRPHUV
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       

   

 31

(2)

Total
2,909
2,896
2,919
2,769
2,810
2,905
2,982
3,000
2,931
2,991

2,909
2,862
2,872
2,894
2,911
2,923
2,936
2,951
2,966
2,986

0.3%
-0.5%
0.0%

(1)

Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028

CAAG
09-18
18-23
18-28
-2.8%
0.0%
0.0%

66
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Wholesale
92
88
89
76
74
75
78
76
74
72

(3)

0.4%
-0.1%
0.2%

2,843
2,862
2,872
2,894
2,911
2,923
2,936
2,951
2,966
2,986

Retail
2,817
2,807
2,830
2,693
2,736
2,830
2,904
2,924
2,857
2,920

(4)

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Interruptible
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

(5)

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

4.7%
2.6%
2.8%

274
281
288
296
305
314
324
333
342
352

Residential
Conservation
177
178
186
206
229
243
256
261
266
268

Residential
Load
Management
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

(7)

(6)

Schedule 3.1
History and Forecast of Summer Peak Demand - MW

GULF POWER COMPANY

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Comm/Ind
Load
Management
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

(8)

2.5%
0.6%
0.6%

233
235
236
237
239
240
242
244
245
247

Comm/Ind
Conservation
186
192
198
212
220
224
231
231
232
232

(9)

-0.2%
-1.0%
-0.4%

2,402
2,347
2,348
2,360
2,367
2,368
2,370
2,374
2,379
2,388

Net Firm
Demand
2,546
2,525
2,535
2,351
2,362
2,437
2,495
2,508
2,434
2,491

(10)

 32

(2)

Total
2,757
2,996
2,950
2,621
2,275
3,223
3,038
2,593
2,765
3,366

2,833
2,779
2,847
2,801
2,817
2,827
2,840
2,857
2,873
2,894

2.2%
-3.5%
-1.5%

(1)

Year
08-09
09-10
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18

18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
24-25
25-26
26-27
27-28

CAAG
09-18
18-23
18-28
-2.1%
0.0%
0.0%

70
55
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Wholesale
98
107
99
89
70
90
85
74
80
81

(3)

2.4%
-3.0%
-1.3%

2,763
2,724
2,847
2,801
2,817
2,827
2,840
2,857
2,873
2,894

Retail
2,659
2,890
2,851
2,532
2,205
3,132
2,953
2,519
2,686
3,284

(4)

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Interruptible
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

(5)

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

3.1%
1.9%
2.1%

385
391
399
407
416
426
437
447
457
468

Residential
Conservation
287
289
297
317
341
356
369
374
377
379

Residential
Load
Management
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

(7)

(6)

Schedule 3.2
History and Forecast of Winter Peak Demand - MW

GULF POWER COMPANY

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Comm/Ind
Load
Management
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

(8)

1.9%
0.1%
0.2%

177
178
178
178
179
179
179
180
180
181

Comm/Ind
Conservation
150
154
157
165
169
172
176
176
177
177

(9)

2.1%
-4.6%
-2.2%

2,271
2,210
2,271
2,216
2,222
2,222
2,224
2,230
2,236
2,246

Net Firm
Demand
2,320
2,553
2,495
2,139
1,766
2,694
2,492
2,043
2,211
2,809

(10)

 33

12,908
12,630
12,645
12,694
12,747
12,768
12,798
12,825
12,858
12,898

0.4%
-0.6%
-0.2%

2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028

CAAG
09-18
18-23
18-28
6.0%
1.5%
1.6%

2.6%
0.6%
0.7%

435
438
440
443
447
450
454
457
461
464

Comm/Ind
Conservation
345
350
361
374
399
416
430
430
432
433

Residential
Conservation
384
388
417
482
551
595
630
637
642
647

Total
12,704
13,256
12,864
12,453
12,502
13,048
13,056
13,097
12,789
13,136

Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
655
664
674
685
697
709
721
733
745
757

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

0.2%
-0.2%
0.0%

10,924
10,951
10,953
10,987
11,023
11,029
11,042
11,053
11,070
11,093

Retail
10,903
11,359
11,040
10,663
10,620
11,075
11,086
11,082
10,809
11,132

(5)

-2.8%
0.0%
0.0%

303
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Wholesale
390
409
382
339
330
332
330
331
318
302

(6)

-1.0%
-1.4%
-0.6%

591
577
577
579
581
581
582
582
583
584

Utility Use
& Losses
682
750
663
597
602
629
580
618
588
623

(7)

Schedule 3.3
History and Forecast of Annual Net Energy for Load - GWH

GULF POWER COMPANY

0.1%
-0.8%
-0.3%

11,818
11,528
11,530
11,565
11,604
11,610
11,623
11,636
11,653
11,678

Net Energy
for Load
11,975
12,518
12,086
11,598
11,552
12,037
11,996
12,030
11,715
12,057

(8)

-1.0%
2.7%
1.3%

56.2%
55.9%
56.1%
55.9%
56.0%
55.8%
56.0%
56.0%
55.9%
55.7%

Load
Factor %
53.7%
56.0%
54.4%
56.2%
55.8%
51.0%
54.9%
54.6%
54.9%
49.0%

(9)

 34

   

    
$FWXDO
3HDN 'HPDQG
0RQWK
0:
-DQXDU\
     
)HEUXDU\
     
0DUFK
     
$SULO
     
0D\
     
-XQH
     
-XO\
     
$XJXVW
     
6HSWHPEHU
     
2FWREHU
     
1RYHPEHU
     
'HFHPEHU
     

   

1(/
*:+
     
   
   
   
     
     
     
     
     
   
   
   

   

   

    
)RUHFDVW
3HDN 'HPDQG
1(/
0:
*:+
     
   
     
   
     
   
     
   
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
   
     
   
     
   

   

   

    
)RUHFDVW
3HDN 'HPDQG
1(/
0:
*:+
     
   
     
   
     
   
     
   
     
   
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
   
     
   
     
   

   

6FKHGXOH  
3UHYLRXV <HDU $FWXDO DQG 7ZR <HDU )RUHFDVW RI 3HDN 'HPDQG DQG 1HW (QHUJ\ IRU /RDG E\ 0RQWK

*8/) 32:(5 &203$1<

 35

   

     %%/
     %%/
     %%/
     %%/
     %%/

     0&)
     0&)
     0&)
     0&)

   7RWDO
   6WHDP
   &&
   &7
   'LHVHO

    'LVWLOODWH
   
    
    
    

     1DWXUDO *DV    7RWDO
    
   6WHDP
    
   &&
    
   &7
   

      
     
      
     

  
  
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

   

      
     
      
     

  
  
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

$FWXDO
    

$FWXDO
    
  1RQH

   

   

(A) Perdido Units' landfill gas burn included in Other

     2WKHU 

     0&)

     %%/
     %%/
     %%/
     %%/
     %%/

   7RWDO
   6WHDP
   &&
   &7
   'LHVHO

    5HVLGXDO
   
   
   
   

(A)

     721

    &RDO

8QLWV

   

7ULOOLRQ %78

     )XHO 5HTXLUHPHQWV

   

    1XFOHDU

   

 

   

      
 
      
   

  
  
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

    

   

   

      
 
      
   

  
  
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

    

   

             6FKHGXOH  
       )XHO 5HTXLUHPHQWV

   

   

      
 
      
   

  
  
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

    

      *XOI 3RZHU &RPSDQ\

   

      
 
      
   

  
  
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

    

    

   

      
 
      
   

  
  
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

    

    

   

      
 
      
   

  
  
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

    

    

   

      
 
      
   

  
  
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

    

    

   

      
 
      
 

  
  
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

    

    

   

      
 
      
 

  
  
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

    

    

   

      
 
      
 

  
  
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

    

    

 36
 *:+

 *:+
 
 *:+
 *:+
 *:+
 *:+
 *:+

 *:+
 *:+
 *:+
 *:+

 *:+
 *:+
 *:+
 *:+
 *:+

      

     
  
  
   
     

   

     
  
     
  

   
  1RQH
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

      

     
  
  
   
     

   

     
  
     
  

   
  1RQH
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

$FWXDO
    

$FWXDO
    
       

   

   

      

     
  
  
   
     

   

      
 
      
  

   
  1RQH
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

   

      

     
  
  
   
     

   

      
 
      
  

   
  1RQH
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

   

      

     
  
  
   
     

   

      
 
     
  

   
  1RQH
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

   

      

     
  
  
   
     

   

     
 
     
  

   
  1RQH
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

    

 $   (QHUJ\ UHFHLYHG IURP 1RQ 5HQHZDEOH VRXUFHV   6HH 6FKHGXOH     IRU GHWDLOV RQ *XOI
V UHQHZDEOH UHVRXUFHV  

     1HW (QHUJ\ IRU /RDG 

     5HQHZDEOHV
    
    
    
    

7RWDO
/)*
06:
6RODU
:LQG

7RWDO
6WHDP
&&
&7

     1DWXUDO *DV
    
    
    

 $ 

7RWDO
6WHDP
&&
&7
'LHVHO

    'LVWLOODWH
    
    
    
    

     18*V 

7RWDO
6WHDP
&&
&7
'LHVHO

    5HVLGXDO
   
   
   
   

    &RDO

 *:+
 
 *:+
 
 *:+
 *:+
 *:+
 *:+
 *:+

8QLWV

   

    1XFOHDU

   

 *:+

          (QHUJ\ 6RXUFHV

   

    $QQXDO )LUP ,QWHUFKDQJH

   

              6FKHGXOH    
           (QHUJ\ 6RXUFHV

*8/) 32:(5 &203$1<       

      

     
  
  
   
     

   

     
 
     
  

   
  1RQH
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

    

      

     
  
 
   
     

   

     
 
     
  

   
  1RQH
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

    

      

     
  
 
   
     

   

     
 
     
  

   
  1RQH
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

    

      

     
  
 
   
     

   

     
 
     
 

   
  1RQH
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

    

      

     
  
 
   
     

   

     
 
     
 

   
  1RQH
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

    

      

     
  
 
   
     

   

     
 
     
 

   
  1RQH
  1RQH
   
  1RQH

 
 
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

    

 37

7RWDO
6WHDP
&&
&7

     1DWXUDO *DV
    
    
    
 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 

 

      

     
    
    
    
    

    

     
    
     
    

    
  1RQH
  1RQH
    
  1RQH

    
    
1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

1RQH

      

     
    
    
    
    

    

     
    
     
    

    
  1RQH
  1RQH
    
  1RQH

    
    
1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

1RQH

       

$FWXDO
    

$FWXDO
    
       

   

   

      

     
    
    
    
    

    

     
    
     
    

    
  1RQH
  1RQH
    
  1RQH

    
    
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

   

      

     
    
    
    
    

    

     
    
     
    

    
  1RQH
  1RQH
    
  1RQH

    
    
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

   

      

     
    
    
    
    

    

     
    
     
    

    
  1RQH
  1RQH
    
  1RQH

    
    
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

   

      

     
    
    
    
    

    

     
    
     
    

    
  1RQH
  1RQH
    
  1RQH

    
    
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

    

      

     
    
    
    
    

    

     
    
     
    

    
  1RQH
  1RQH
    
  1RQH

    
    
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

    

      

     
    
    
    
    

    

     
    
     
    

    
  1RQH
  1RQH
    
  1RQH

    
    
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

    

127(   /LQH      EDVHG RQ HQHUJ\ UHFHLYHG IURP 1RQ 5HQHZDEOH UHVRXUFHV   6HH 6FKHGXOH     IRU GHWDLOV RQ *XOI
V UHQHZDEOH UHVRXUFHV  

     1HW (QHUJ\ IRU /RDG 

     5HQHZDEOHV
    
    
    
    

7RWDO
/)*
06:
6RODU
:LQG

7RWDO
6WHDP
&&
&7
'LHVHO

    'LVWLOODWH
    
    
    
    

     18*V

7RWDO
6WHDP
&&
&7
'LHVHO

    5HVLGXDO
   
   
   
   

    &RDO

 
 

8QLWV

   

    1XFOHDU

   

 

          (QHUJ\ 6RXUFHV

   

    $QQXDO )LUP ,QWHUFKDQJH

   

              6FKHGXOH    
           (QHUJ\ 6RXUFHV

*8/) 32:(5 &203$1<       

      

     
    
    
    
    

    

     
    
     
    

    
  1RQH
  1RQH
    
  1RQH

    
    
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

    

      

     
    
    
    
    

    

     
    
     
    

    
  1RQH
  1RQH
    
  1RQH

    
    
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

    

      

     
    
    
    
    

    

     
    
     
    

    
  1RQH
  1RQH
    
  1RQH

    
    
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

    

      

     
    
    
    
    

    

     
    
     
    

    
  1RQH
  1RQH
    
  1RQH

    
    
  1RQH
  1RQH
  1RQH

     

  1RQH

       

    

    

  



INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING PROCESS
In preparing for the 2019 TYSP filing, Gulf participated in the SES IRP
process during 2018, coordinating its plans for future resource additions with the
SES retail operating companies.
As described in previous Gulf TYSPs, the SES IRP planning process begins
with a determination of the various historical, current and future economic trends
and conditions which would impact the business over the next 20 to 25 years,
including general inflation and escalation assumptions that will affect fuel costs,
construction costs, labor rates and variable operation and maintenance (O&M)
expenses. Other activities included in the SES IRP process include: energy and
demand forecasting, fuel price forecasting, generation technology screening
analysis and evaluation, engineering cost estimation, and evaluation of
dispatchable and non-dispatchable demand-side management (DSM) programs.
The impact of DSM programs on system loads is assessed and included as
an input into the SES IRP process. DSM programs that are identified as costeffective alternatives to the supply-side resources are integrated with the supplyside options to produce a final integrated resource plan. Gulf’s forecast of energy
sales and peak demand reflects the continued impacts of its approved
conservation programs.
The supply side of the IRP process focuses on the system as a whole. The
reserve margin for the system determines the reserves needed to maintain the
proper economic and reliability balance that allows the system to reliably meet its
energy and demand requirements after accounting for load forecast error,

38

 abnormal weather conditions, and unit forced outage conditions, adjusted as
appropriate for risk.
The current SES IRP used in the development of Gulf’s 2019 TYSP has as
its planning criterion a 16.25 percent summer reserve margin target for the year
2022 and beyond. With the addition of a resource such as the proposed 1-on-1
CC at North Escambia, Gulf would meet its reserve margin target.
Once the above mentioned planning assumptions are determined, resource
technologies are screened to determine the most acceptable candidates, the
necessary planning inputs are defined, and the generation mix analysis is initiated.
The main optimization tool used in the generation mix analysis is the Strategist®
model.

Strategist® employs a generation mix optimization module named

PROVIEWTM. The supply-side technology candidates are input into Strategist® in
specific MW block sizes for selection over the planning horizon for the entire
system. Although this model uses many data inputs and assumptions in the
process of optimizing system generation additions, the key assumptions are fuel
forecasts, load forecasts, DSM programs, candidate units, reserve margin
requirements, cost of capital, and escalation rates.
PROVIEWTM uses a dynamic programming technique to develop the
optimum resource mix. This technique allows PROVIEWTM to evaluate many
combinations of generation additions that satisfy the reserve margin constraint for
every year. Annual system operating costs are simulated and are added to the
construction costs required to build each combination of generation additions. An
indicative schedule of generation additions is developed by evaluating each year

39

 sequentially and comparing the results of each combination.

PROVIEWTM

produces a number of different combinations over the planning horizon, evaluating
both the capital cost components for unit additions as well as the operating and
maintenance cost of existing and future supply-side additions.

The program

produces a report which ranks all of the different combinations with respect to the
total net present value cost over the entire 20-year planning horizon. The leading
combinations from the program are then reviewed for reasonableness and validity.
It is important to note that supply-side additions from the PROVIEWTM program
output are for the entire Southern system and are reflective of the various
technology candidates selected.
After the system results are verified, each individual operating company’s
specific needs over the planning horizon are evaluated.

Each company is

responsible for recommending the type and timing of its generation additions.
When all companies are satisfied with their generation additions, the system base
supply-side plan is complete. The result is an individual operating company supply
plan that fits within the system planning criteria.
In summary, the SES IRP process involves a significant amount of
manpower and computer resources in order to produce an integrated demand-side
and supply-side resource plan. The analysis seeks a broad range of alternatives
in order to meet the system’s projected demand and energy requirements. The
resulting product is an integrated indicative plan which meets the needs of the
company’s customers in a cost-effective and reliable manner. On January 1, 2019,
Gulf Power became a subsidiary of NextEra Energy, Inc., which also owns Florida

40

 Power & Light Company (FPL).

Prior to this transaction, resource planning

analyses for Gulf Power were performed by SCS. Such planning was based on
Gulf remaining a part of the Southern Company system. Going forward, these
planning services will be performed for Gulf Power by the resource planning group
at FPL, and Gulf’s 2020 TYSP will reflect the results of these analyses.
TRANSMISSION PLANNING PROCESS
The transmission system is commonly viewed as a resource used to
transport electric power from its generation source to the point of its conversion to
distribution voltages under a number of system conditions, generally known as
“contingencies”. Although the transmission system is not studied as part of the
SES IRP process, it is separately studied by SCS in an ongoing process in order
to address potential reliability concerns. The results of the IRP are factored into
transmission studies to determine the impacts of interconnecting planned resource
additions at various sites on the transmission system. On January 1, 2019, Gulf
Power became a subsidiary of NextEra Energy, Inc., which also owns Florida
Power & Light Company (FPL). Prior to this transaction, transmission planning
analyses for Gulf Power were performed by SCS. Such planning was based on
Gulf remaining a part of the Southern Company system. Going forward, these
planning services will be performed for Gulf Power by the transmission planning
group at FPL.

41

 FUEL PRICE FORECAST PROCESS

FUEL PRICE FORECASTS
The underlying fuel price forecast reflected in Gulf Power’s 2019 TYSP has
been developed as part of the coordinated planning process in which Gulf
participated during 2018 in order to produce the SES IRP.
The delivered price of any fuel consists of a variety of components. The
main components are commodity price and transportation cost. Domestic coal
commodity prices are forecast on either a mine-mouth basis or free on board
(FOB) barge basis, while import coals are forecast on an FOB ship basis at the
port of import.

Natural gas prices are forecast at the Henry Hub, Louisiana

benchmark delivery point. Because mine-mouth coal prices vary by source, sulfur
content, and Btu level, commodity price forecasts are prepared for different coal
classifications used on the system. Natural gas does not possess the same quality
variations as coal, so a single commodity price forecast for gas at Henry Hub is
prepared, and a basis differential between Henry Hub and the various pipelines
serving applicable plants is applied. A single price forecast is also developed for
ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) oil, which is the only oil used.
Transportation costs, to be used in the delivered price forecast, are
developed for potential sites when modeling generic unit additions in the resource
planning process. Site-specific transportation costs are developed for existing
units to produce delivered price forecasts for both the resource planning process
and the fuel budget process. Similarly, when site-specific unit additions are under
consideration, site-specific transportation costs are developed for each option.

42

 GENERIC FUEL FORECAST
During 2018, short-term (current year +2) and long-term (year 4 and
beyond) fuel price forecasts for coal, oil, and natural gas were developed, and
these extend through the 10-year planning horizon. The short-term forecasts were
developed for use in the system’s fuel budgeting process and marginal pricing
dispatch procedures.
The long-term forecasts were developed in the spring of 2018 for use in
system planning activities. Charles River & Associates (CRA) is the modeling
vendor used to develop the long-term forecasts.
Fuel market assumptions, developed in collaboration with CRA, are
integrated into CRA’s model to develop commodity forecast prices. Transportation
prices are developed and combined with the CRA commodity prices to produce
the total delivered prices used in the resource planning process. These prices are
developed for existing units and potential green-field/brown-field sites for future
expansion.
NATURAL GAS PRICES
2018 began with below-average temperatures, record demand and frigid
temperatures in production basins. Consequently, Gas Daily natural gas prices at
Henry Hub jumped from $2.97 per MMBtu on December 31, 2017, to as much as
$6.88 on January 4, 2018. Prices moderated by late January 2018 and remained
below $4.00 until November, when cold temperatures returned and concerns arose
over storage levels being below the 5-year average. Overall, Henry Hub prices
averaged $3.15 in 2018. Total U.S. natural gas consumption in 2018 was a record

43

 high of 81.58 billion cubic feet (Bcf)/day. On the supply side, dry gas production
in 2018 continued to grow from 2017 levels with new production records being set.
NATURAL GAS PRICE OUTLOOK
The outlook for natural gas prices in the United States is influenced by
multiple factors. The most important factors in projecting natural gas prices are
demand and shale gas production. Once a domestic commodity, natural gas is
increasingly evolving into a global commodity because of growing LNG markets.
Commodities such as oil, LNG, natural gas liquids, and power are interconnected
to natural gas more now than ever before. Impacts from an evolving technology,
regulatory and political landscape are also impacting the natural gas markets.
Flat demand in the U.S. residential and commercial sectors is expected for
several decades as energy efficiency increases. However, in the long-term, the
industrial sector, particularly the chemical industry, is expected to account for the
most growth in natural gas consumption. The power sector is projected to also
increase its natural gas consumption as a result of continued low natural gas prices
and installation of new natural gas plants as utility and/or regulatory decisions are
made on the retirements of coal-fired and nuclear power plants.
The United States became a net exporter of natural gas in 2017 and
continued as such in 2018. As more export terminals are placed in service, LNG
exports from the U.S. are projected to increase through the end of the 2020’s. After
2030, LNG is projected to become less competitive as additional suppliers enter
the global LNG market.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates U.S. dry natural
gas production averaged an estimated 83.3 Bcf/day in 2018. The EIA forecasts

44

 production to be 90.2 Bcf/day in 2019 and 92.2 Bcf/day in 2020.

Reserve

estimates continue to increase. According to the most current data from the EIA,
the United States had 464.3 Tcf of proven natural gas reserves at the end of 2017.
Dry natural gas production is projected to increase through at least 2050. Drilling
growth in the Southwest region, particularly in the Permian basin, is the main driver
for production from shale gas and tight oil plays. Production of gas from “liquidsrich” shale resources will be especially important since the liquids value is sufficient
to cover much of the drilling costs allowing natural gas to become a low-cost
byproduct. Crude oil prices, not natural gas prices, will determine the level of
drilling in the oil formations.
The outlook for natural gas prices remains low. Henry Hub spot prices are
projected to remain below $5 through 2050 according to the EIA’s Annual Energy
Outlook 2019 reference case. For 2019, the EIA expects the Henry Hub natural
gas spot price to average $2.89 per MMBtu and $2.92 per MMBtu in 2020.
COAL PRICE OUTLOOK
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that total 2018
U.S. coal production was 755 million short tons (MMst), which was 20 MMst less
than 2017. In 2018, coal prices rose in three of the five major U.S. coal-producing
regions, particularly the Northern and Central Appalachian regions. Although U.S.
coal exports increased by about 10 MMst in 2018, volumes were not enough to
offset the decline in U.S. coal consumption, resulting in an overall decline in coal
production. Of the five major U.S. coal producing regions, two saw increased
production in 2018. In the Central Appalachian and Illinois Basins, production
increased 4 percent (3 MMst) and 2 percent (2 MMst) respectively. The Rocky

45

 Mountain region experienced the largest decline, with production 12 percent, or 6
MMst lower than in 2017. The Powder River and Northern Appalachian Basins
also declined by 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively.
Major factors that continue to contribute to the decline in coal production
are low natural gas prices, continued coal-fired generating unit retirements, and
the addition of renewable energy generation. Though production from the Central
Appalachian coal supply region saw a slight increase in 2018 due to the export
demand from Europe, production from this region will continue to decline in the
long term because of the inability of these mines to compete with lower cost coal
basins such as the Illinois Basin and the Powder River Basin.
Prior to 2016, Illinois Basin coal production saw a steady increase due to
the widespread installation of scrubbers at eastern power generating stations.
With the completion of these controlled units, Illinois Basin coal will again be forced
to compete with Powder River Basin coal domestically. Production levels of Illinois
Basin coal were also up in 2018 as compared to 2017, the result of slightly higher
domestic demand and the Illinois coal continuing to ship to markets in Europe,
Africa and India. Competition with other coals could lead to reduced production
from the Illinois Basin in the future.
Powder River Basin coal production decreased by 3 percent in 2018.
Production costs have increased slightly as mining moves from east to west across
the basin and deeper reserves are accessed. Increased overburden and the
relative distance to rail load outs have put upward pressure on costs. Overall, the
economics of surface mining in this region remain favorable although production
is forecast to remain relatively flat over the next several years. Growth in export

46

 opportunities off the West Coast into Asian markets will be contingent on terminal
capacity.
Demand for Western Bituminous coal is expected to remain flat as several
generators in Colorado have ceased burning this coal. The inherent low sulfur
content of this coal allows for export opportunities, and these export opportunities
will have a major impact on this coal’s long-term viability and production levels. As
for movements into the Southeast, the high transportation costs make Western
Bituminous coals less economic to this region.
The demand for Colombian coal is largely affected by the global demand
for coal. In the Atlantic Basin, Colombia is the major supplier of coal into Europe,
and demand there continues to increase. In the Pacific Basin, the major importer
of coal is China, and its governmental policies regulating domestic coal production
have caused an increase in imports from Australia and Indonesia over the last few
years, in turn affecting the world market demand. Even though coal demand and
production have declined in the U.S., greater world market demand has increased
U.S. exports, especially from the Central Appalachian and Illinois Basin regions.
This factor has led to an increase in U.S. coal prices from other domestic coal
supplying regions.
On January 1, 2019, Gulf Power became a subsidiary of NextEra Energy,
Inc., which also owns Florida Power & Light Company (FPL).

Prior to this

transaction, fuel price forecasting for Gulf Power was performed by SCS. Such
planning was based on Gulf remaining a part of the Southern Company system.
Going forward, these fuel price forecasting services will be performed for Gulf
Power by FPL.

47

 ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE
Gulf Power, under the leadership of its new parent company, NextEra
Energy, Inc., is committed to remaining an industry leader in environmental
protection and stewardship.

This commitment to compliance, conservation,

communication, and continuous improvement fosters a culture of environmental
excellence and drives the sustainable management of its business planning,
operations, and daily work.
In accordance with commitments to environmental protection and stewardship,
Gulf Power endeavors to:
Comply






Comply with all applicable environmental laws, regulations, and permits
Proactively identify environmental risks and take action to mitigate those
risks
Pursue opportunities to exceed environmental standards
Participate in the legislative and regulatory process to develop
environmental laws, regulations, and policies that are technically sound
and economically feasible
Design, construct, operate, and maintain facilities in an environmentally
sound and responsible manner

Conserve




Prevent pollution, minimize waste, and conserve natural resources
Avoid, minimize, and/or mitigate impacts to habitat and wildlife
Promote the efficient use of energy, both within our company and in our
communities

Communicate




Invest in environmental training and awareness to achieve a corporate
culture of environmental excellence
Maintain an open dialogue with stakeholders on environmental matters
and performance
Communicate this policy to all employees and publish it on the corporate
website

48

 Continuously Improve




Establish, monitor, and report progress toward environmental targets
Review and update this policy on a regular basis
Drive continuous improvement through ongoing evaluations of our
environmental management system to incorporate lessons learned and
best practices.
Gulf Power complies with all environmental laws, regulations, and permit

requirements, and it designs, constructs, and operates its facilities in an
environmentally sound and responsible manner. Gulf has developed and routinely
updates its environmental compliance strategy to serve as a road map for a costeffective compliance plan. This road map establishes general direction, but it also
allows for individual decisions to be made based on specific information available
at the time. The focus of the strategy updates is centered on compliance with the
acid rain requirements and other significant clean air requirements, as well as new
land and water requirements. This approach is necessary to preserve the flexibility
to match a dynamic regulatory environment with the available compliance options.
Gulf will continue to take all necessary actions to fully comply with all
environmental laws and regulations as they apply to the operation of its existing
generation facilities and the installation of new generation. The following is a
summary of each major area of existing and emerging environmental regulations
and Gulf’s actions taken to comply with these regulations.
Existing Environmental Regulations
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
In 1990, Congress passed major revisions to the Clean Air Act requiring
existing coal-fired generating plants to substantially reduce air emissions of sulfur

49

 dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX). Gulf’s compliance activities for SO2 have
included fuel switching to lower sulfur coals coupled with the use of banked
emission allowances and the acquisition of additional allowances for future year
compliance. Also, Gulf completed installation and began operating flue gas desulfurization equipment (scrubbers) on Plant Crist Units 4 through 7 in December
2009, Plant Scherer Unit 3 in March 2011, and Plant Daniel Units 1 and 2 in
November 2015, which are now achieving significant reductions of SO2 emissions
at these coal-fired units. In addition to reducing SO2 emissions, Gulf has installed
low NOX burners and/or additional post-combustion NOX controls on its coal-fired
units. Compliance with the Clean Air Act and resulting regulations has been and
will continue to be a significant focus for the Company.
Air Quality Standards for Ozone
In 1997, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced a stringent
new eight-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone based
on an eight-hour average. In 2002, Gulf entered into an agreement with the Florida
Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) to reduce NOX emissions at Plant
Crist in order to help ensure that the new ozone standard is attained in the
Pensacola area. Gulf installed Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) controls on
Crist Unit 7 in May 2005. In addition to the SCR control on Unit 7, the Company
installed Selective Non-Catalytic Reduction Controls (SNCR) and over-fire air on
Crist Unit 6 in February 2006 and SNCR controls on Crist Unit 4 and Unit 5 in April
2006.

These controls have achieved the overall plant-wide NOX emissions

average of 0.2 lbs/mmBtu as outlined in the FDEP Agreement. In accordance with
the FDEP agreement, Gulf also retired Crist Unit 1 in 2003 and Crist Units 2 and 3

50

 in 2006. The Company installed SCR controls on Scherer 3 in December 2010 as
required by the Georgia Multipollutant Rule to reduce NOx. The Crist 6 SNCR and
over-fire air were replaced with SCR technology in April 2012 to further reduce
NOX emissions.
The

EPA

regulates

ground

level

ozone

concentrations

through

implementation of an eight-hour ozone NAAQS. In 2008, the EPA adopted a
revised eight-hour ozone NAAQS and published its final area designations in 2012.
All areas within the Company's geographic service area have achieved attainment
of the 2008 standard. In October 2015, the EPA published a more stringent eighthour ozone NAAQS. While the stringency of the standard is being challenged,
with oral argument held in the D.C. Circuit in December 2018, no areas in the
Company’s geographic service area have been, or are anticipated to be,
designated non-attainment under the 2015 ozone NAAQS. The EPA is required
by the Clean Air Act to review the standards every 5 years and the next review of
the 2015 NAAQS is due by late 2020.
Air Quality Standards for Fine Particulate Matter
The EPA regulates ambient fine particulate matter concentrations on an
annual and 24-hour average basis. All areas within the Company's geographic
service area have achieved attainment with the 1997 and 2006 particulate matter
NAAQS. On January 15, 2013, the EPA published a final rule that increased the
stringency of the annual fine particulate matter standard. In May 2018, the EPA
indicated that it plans to complete the review of the particulate matter NAAQS by
December 2020. While the Company does not anticipate that the EPA will revise

51

 the standard, a lower ambient particulate standard could result in the designation
of new non-attainment areas within the Company's geographic service area.
Air Quality Standards for SO2 and NO2
In 2010, the EPA revised the NAAQS for sulfur dioxide (SO2), establishing
a new one-hour standard and is completing designations in multiple phases. The
EPA issued several rounds of area designations, and no areas within the vicinity
of Company-owned SO2 sources have been designated nonattainment under the
2010 one-hour SO2 NAAQS. Additionally, on April 18, 2018, the EPA published a
final rule retaining the current primary NO2 standards, without revision, maintaining
the NO2 attainment designation for all counties in which the Company operates its
generating facilities.
Clean Air Interstate Rule / Cross-State Air Pollution Rule
The EPA issued the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) in 2005, which called
for phased reductions in SO2 and NOx emissions from power plants in 28 eastern
states. In 2008, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit
issued decisions invalidating certain aspects of CAIR, but they left CAIR
compliance requirements in place while the EPA developed a revised rule. In
2011, the EPA finalized the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) and its NOx
annual, NOx seasonal, and SO2 annual programs to replace CAIR.

In October

2016, the EPA published a final rule to address ozone impacts that updated the
CSAPR ozone-season NOx program based on revised data that identified changes
in impacts to downwind non-attainment areas. The revised rule removed all of
Florida from the CSAPR programs, left the Georgia seasonal NOx budget
unchanged, and established more stringent NOX emissions budgets in Mississippi.

52

 As a result of predicted impacts to downwind fine particulate standard nonattainment areas, Georgia remains in the CSAPR annual SO2 and NOx programs.
In December 2018, the EPA finalized the determination that CSAPR satisfies the
Good Neighbor obligations for the 2008 ozone standard. The outcome of ongoing
CSAPR litigation is unknown at this time and could have an impact on the State of
Mississippi's allowance allocations under the CSAPR seasonal NOX program.
Decisions regarding Gulf’s CAIR/CSAPR compliance strategy were made
jointly with the Clean Air Visibility Rule (CAVR) and CAMR/MATS compliance
plans due to pollution reduction co-benefits of controls that were installed on
affected generating units. Compliance is being accomplished by operation of
emission controls installed for CAIR at Gulf’s coal-fired facilities and/or by the
purchase of emission allowances as needed.
Regional Haze Rule
The Regional Haze Rule (formerly called the Clean Air Visibility Rule) was
finalized in 2005, with a goal of restoring natural visibility conditions in certain areas
(primarily national parks and wilderness areas) to natural conditions by 2064. On
January 10, 2017, the EPA published a final rule to review and amend the Regional
Haze Rule and associated State Implementation Plan (SIP) requirements. The
rule extended the deadline for the next SIP submittal from July 31, 2018, to July
31, 2021. Subsequently, in January 2018, the EPA announced its decision to
revisit certain aspects of the rule. State implementation of the reasonable progress
requirements defined in this final rule could require further additional reductions of
SO2 or NOx emissions from affected units.

53

 Startup, Shutdown, and Malfunction
In 2015, the EPA published a final rule requiring certain states (including
Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi) to revise or remove the provisions of their SIPs
providing allowable excess emissions at industrial facilities, including electric
generating facilities, during periods of startup, shut-down, or malfunction (SSM).
While the EPA has not yet responded to the SIP revisions proposed by the states
of Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi, the operating permits for the Company’s
generating facilities affected by the rule provide for compliance with the rule
requirements.
Mercury and Air Toxics Standards
In 2012, the EPA finalized the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS)
rule which imposes stringent emissions limits for Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs),
including acid gases, mercury, and particulate metal emissions, from coal and oilfired electric utility steam generating units. The compliance deadline set by the
final MATS rule was April 16, 2015. An April 16, 2016 deadline was set for affected
units that were granted extensions to accommodate installation of controls or other
compliance options.
Gulf evaluated a number of options for its coal-fired generation to comply
with emission standards required by the MATS rule and the EPA’s proposed land
and water rules. As described in Gulf’s Air Quality Compliance Program Update
that was filed with the FPSC, Gulf determined that transmission upgrades provided
the best MATS compliance option for Plant Crist. For the Plant Daniel coal units,
the best options to meet MATS limits included installation of scrubbers, bromine
54

 injection, and activated carbon injection. The Plant Daniel scrubbers were placed
in service in November 2015, and the Plant Daniel bromine and activated carbon
injection systems were placed in service in December 2015. The Plant Daniel and
the Plant Crist MATS continuous emission monitoring systems (CEMS) were also
placed in service during 2015. For Plant Scherer Unit 3, installation of a scrubber,
SCR, carbon injection/baghouse and mercury monitoring was completed for
compliance with the Georgia Multipollutant Rule previously which also provided
compliance with the MATS limits.
In 2013, the Company determined that the most cost-effective MATS
compliance option for Plant Scholz was to retire the plant. Accordingly, Plant
Scholz was retired in April 2015. In early 2015, the Company finalized its MATS
compliance strategy for the Plant Smith coal units.

The most cost-effective

compliance option was to retire the Plant Smith coal-fired Units 1 and 2 in March
2016, retaining the remaining non-MATS units which will continue to operate and
generate electricity. All of the Company's units that are subject to the MATS rule
completed the measures necessary to achieve compliance with this rule or were
retired prior to or during 2016. In December 2018, the EPA published a revised
MATS cost analysis for which it noted that MATS was not appropriate and
necessary to regulate coal and oil-fired EGUs under MATS. States and industry
have petitioned the EPA to retain the MATS program as compliance with the
requirements had already been completed.

55

 EMERGING ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS
316(b) Intake Structures
The EPA published a final 316(b) rule in 2014 that establishes standards
for reducing effects on fish and other aquatic life caused by cooling water intake
structures at existing power plants and manufacturing facilities. The rule also
addresses cooling water intake structures for new units at existing facilities.
Compliance with the final rule may require changes to existing cooling water intake
structures at certain Gulf generating facilities; however, the ultimate effect of this
final rule will depend on the results of additional studies and implementation of the
rule by regulators based on site-specific factors. National Pollutant Discharge
Elimination System (NPDES) industrial wastewater permits issued after July 14,
2018, must include conditions to implement and ensure compliance with the
standards and measures required by the rule, unless the permittee has requested
and has been granted an alternative schedule for compliance.
Effluent Limitations
In 2015, the EPA finalized the steam electric effluent limitations guidelines
(ELG) rule which imposes stringent technology-based requirements for certain
waste streams from steam electric generating units. The revised technologybased limits and compliance dates will likely require extensive modifications to
existing ash and wastewater management systems or the installation and
operation of new ash and wastewater management systems.

Compliance

applicability dates range from November 1, 2018, to December 31, 2023, with state
environmental agencies incorporating specific applicability dates in the NPDES
permitting process based on information provided for each waste stream. The

56

 EPA has committed to a new rulemaking that could potentially revise the 2015
limitations and applicability dates of the bottom ash transport water and flue gas
desulfurization (FGD) wastewater requirements. The EPA plans to propose rule
revisions in mid- 2019 and to finalize the rulemaking in 2020.
Waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) Final Rule
In 2015, the EPA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (jointly, “the
Agencies”) published a final rule revising the regulatory definition of waters of the
U.S. for all Clean Water Act (CWA) programs. The final rule significantly expanded
the scope of federal jurisdiction over waterbodies (such as rivers, streams, and
canals), which could impact new generation projects and permitting and reporting
requirements associated with the installation, expansion, and maintenance of
transmission and distribution projects. This rule could have significantly increased
permitting and regulatory requirements and costs associated with the siting of new
facilities and the installation, expansion, and maintenance of transmission and
distribution lines. On February 14, 2019, the EPA and the U.S. Army Corp of
Engineers published the proposed replacement WOTUS rule. The new rule’s
proposed definitions are much more reasonable and functional compared to the
2015 rule.

The proposed definitions establish six defined categories of

jurisdictional waters providing more acceptable definitions for adjacent wetlands
and tributaries. When adopted the rule should reduce the regulatory burden and
mitigation cost for future Gulf Power development projects. Following a 60-day
comment period the EPA plans to publish the final WOTUS rule in 3rd quarter of
2019, however, rule challenges are anticipated.

57

 Water Quality and Total Maximum Daily Loads
In addition to this federal action, State of Florida nutrient water quality
standards that limit the amount of nitrogen and phosphorous allowed in state
waters are in effect for the State’s streams and estuaries. The impact of these
standards will depend on further regulatory action in connection with their sitespecific implementation through the State of Florida’s National Pollutant Discharge
Elimination System permitting program and Total Maximum Daily Load restoration
program and cannot be determined at this time.
Coal Combustion Residuals (CCR)
The Company currently manages CCR at four onsite storage units. These
consist of an ash pond at one facility and landfills and a surface impoundment
(CCR units) at a second electric generating plant in Florida. Gulf is a co-owner of
units at generating plants located in Mississippi and Georgia operated by
Mississippi Power and Georgia Power, respectively. In addition to on-site storage,
the Company sells a portion of its CCR to third parties for beneficial reuse. In
addition to federal CCR rule requirements, individual states regulate CCR, and the
States of Florida, Mississippi, and Georgia each have their own regulatory
requirements. The Company has an inspection program in place to assist in
maintaining the integrity of its coal ash surface impoundments.
The CCR rule, which became effective in October 2015, regulates the
disposal of CCR, including coal ash and gypsum, as non-hazardous solid waste in
landfills and surface impoundments (CCR units) at active generating power plants.
The CCR rule requires CCR units to be evaluated against a set of performance
criteria and potentially closed if minimum criteria are not met. Closure of existing

58

 CCR units will require installation of equipment and infrastructure to manage CCR
in accordance with the rule.
In March 2018, the EPA proposed its Phase I Remand rule that included
potential revisions which would provide site-specific risk-based groundwater
monitoring, correction actions, and location restriction requirements. On July 30,
2018, the EPA finalized Phase I, Part One amendments to the rule, establishing
risk-based groundwater protection standards, extending closure deadlines, and
providing greater certainty regarding continued operation and closure of CCR
units. The Phase I rule was challenged, and the court is expected to rule on this
in the future.
On August 21, 2018, the DC Circuit Court of Appeals issued its opinion
addressing both industry and environmental group challenges to the final CCR
rule. The court found, in part, for the environmental groups on their challenges to:
(1) the ability of unlined impounds to continue operating and (2) the EPA’s failure
to regulate legacy ponds. The consequences of the court finding for environmental
groups will require the EPA to revisit elements of the CCR rule. A revised rule is
expected during 2019.
The EPA's reconsideration of the CCR rule is also due, in part, to a
legislative development that impacts the potential oversight role of state agencies.
Under the Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act, which became
law in 2016, states are allowed to establish permit programs for implementing the
CCR rule.
The Company has posted the following documents to its public website as
required by the CCR rule: location restriction demonstrations, report of annual

59

 inspections, annual fugitive dust reports, annual groundwater monitoring and
corrective action reports, notices of establishing assessment groundwater
monitoring, and notices of groundwater protection standards exceedances.
However, the ultimate impact of the CCR rule will depend on the results of initial
and ongoing minimum criteria assessments and implementation of state or federal
permit programs. As further analysis is performed, including evaluation of the
expected method of compliance, refinement of assumptions underlying the cost
estimates, such as the quantities of CCR at each site, and the determination of
timing with respect to compliance, the Company expects to continue to periodically
update cost estimates and schedules for the CCR compliance activities.
Greenhouse Gas Regulations, Clean Power Plan and Global Climate Update
In 2015, the EPA published final rules limiting CO2 emissions from new,
modified, and reconstructed fossil fuel-fired electric generating units and proposed
guidelines for states to develop plans to meet EPA-mandated CO2 emission
performance standards for existing units (known as the Clean Power Plan or CPP).
In February 2016, the U.S. Supreme Court granted a stay of the CPP, which will
remain in effect through the resolution of litigation in the U.S. Court of Appeals for
the District of Columbia challenging the legality of the CPP and any review by the
U.S. Supreme Court. On March 28, 2017, the U.S. President signed an executive
order directing agencies to review actions that potentially burden the development
or use of domestically-produced energy resources, including review of the CPP
and other CO2 emissions rules. During October, 2017, the EPA published a
proposed rule to repeal the CPP and, on December 28, 2017, published an
advanced notice of proposed rulemaking regarding a CPP replacement rule. On

60

 August 21, 2018, the EPA proposed the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule which
establishes emission guidelines for GHG emissions from existing electric
generating units and establishes a preliminary applicability test for defining major
modifications. The EPA is expected to finalize the ACE rule in the second quarter
of 2019. The ultimate implications of the ACE rule will depend on the outcome of
current rulemaking and any subsequent litigation by those challenging the reproposed rule.
Conclusion
Gulf has made substantial investments in environmental controls to comply
with current and pending laws and regulations. Gulf continues its development of
strategies to address any future environmental requirements in order to minimize
the uncertainty related to the scope and cost of compliance. As new initiatives
emerge, Gulf will support proposals that would meet environmental goals and
objectives in a logical and cost-effective way, provided that the standards are
based on sound science and economics which allow for adequate time to comply
without compromising the safe, reliable and cost-effective supply of electricity to
Gulf’s customers.

61

  
 

$9$,/$%,/,7< 2) 6<67(0 ,17(5&+$1*( 
 
7KURXJK WKH 6RXWKHUQ &RPSDQ\ ,QWHUFRPSDQ\ ,QWHUFKDQJH &RQWUDFW  ,,&   
*XOI¶V  XQLW  RSHUDWLRQV  DUH  FRRUGLQDWHG  ZLWK  WKH  WKUHH  6(6  UHWDLO  RSHUDWLQJ 
FRPSDQLHV  DQG  6RXWKHUQ  3RZHU  &RPSDQ\     7KH  FRRUGLQDWHG  SRROLQJ  RI  *XOI¶V 
JHQHUDWLQJ  UHVRXUFHV  ZLWK  WKHVH  6RXWKHUQ  &RPSDQ\  JHQHUDWLQJ  UHVRXUFHV  ZLOO 
FRQWLQXH  XQWLO  *XOI¶V  V\VWHP  LV  HLWKHU  RSHUDWHG  DV  D  VWDQG DORQH  XWLOLW\  RU  LWV 
JHQHUDWLRQ LV RSHUDWHG LQ FRPELQDWLRQ ZLWK )3/ JHQHUDWLRQ  
$V  FXUUHQWO\  RSHUDWHG   LQ  DQ\  \HDU   DQ  LQGLYLGXDO  RSHUDWLQJ  FRPSDQ\  PD\ 
KDYH  D  WHPSRUDU\  VXUSOXV  RU  GHILFLW  LQ  JHQHUDWLQJ  FDSDFLW\   GHSHQGLQJ  RQ  WKH 
UHODWLRQVKLS RI LWV JHQHUDWLQJ FDSDFLW\ WR LWV ORDG DQG UHVHUYH UHVSRQVLELOLW\   (DFK 
RSHUDWLQJ  FRPSDQ\  HLWKHU  EX\V  RU  VHOOV  LWV  WHPSRUDU\  GHILFLW  RU  VXUSOXV  FDSDFLW\ 
IURP RU WR WKH SRRO LQ RUGHU WR VDWLVI\ LWV UHVHUYH UHVSRQVLELOLW\ UHTXLUHPHQW   7KLV 
SURFHVV LV DFFRPSOLVKHG WKURXJK WKH UHVHUYH VKDULQJ SURYLVLRQV RI WKH ,,&  
2)) 6<67(0 6$/(6 
*XOI DQG RWKHU 6(6 RSHUDWLQJ FRPSDQLHV KDYH HQJDJHG LQ WKH VDOH RI ILUP 
FDSDFLW\ DQG HQHUJ\ WR VHYHUDO XWLOLWLHV RXWVLGH WKH V\VWHP WKURXJK D VHULHV RI ORQJ 
WHUP ZKROHVDOH SRZHU VDOHV DJUHHPHQWV ZLWK LQLWLDO WHUPV EHJLQQLQJ SULRU WR        
*XOI
V VKDUH RI WKHVH ORQJ WHUP RII V\VWHP VDOHV RI FDSDFLW\ DQG HQHUJ\ YDULHV IURP 
\HDU WR \HDU DQG LV UHIOHFWHG LQ WKH UHVHUYH FDOFXODWLRQV RQ 6FKHGXOHV     DQG      
ZKLOH WKH IXHO XVH DQG WKH HQHUJ\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK *XOI¶V SRUWLRQ RI WKHVH VDOHV DUH 
LQFOXGHG RQ 6FKHGXOHV   DQG      UHVSHFWLYHO\   *XOI
V SULPDU\ FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKHVH 
ORQJ WHUP RII V\VWHP VDOHV KDV FRPH IURP LWV RZQHUVKLS LQWHUHVW LQ 8QLW   DW 3ODQW 
6FKHUHU  ZKLFK *XOI DFTXLUHG DV SDUW RI LWV ORQJ UDQJH UHVRXUFH SODQQLQJ WR PHHW 
 

62

  
 

WKH QHHGV RI LWV UHWDLO HOHFWULF VHUYLFH FXVWRPHUV   7KH UHPDLQLQJ ZKROHVDOH FRQWUDFW 
LV VFKHGXOHG WR HQG LQ 'HFHPEHU       

 

63

 CHAPTER IV

FORECAST OF FACILITIES REQUIREMENTS

 
 

&$3$&,7< 5(6285&( $/7(51$7,9(6 
 
&$3$&,7< $'',7,216  
7KH  6(6  ,53  SURFHVV  LQ  ZKLFK  *XOI  SDUWLFLSDWHG  GXULQJ        FRQVLGHUHG 
QDWXUDO JDV ILUHG &7 DQG QDWXUDO JDV ILUHG && JHQHUDWLQJ WHFKQRORJLHV DV SRWHQWLDO 
FDQGLGDWHV  LQ  JHQHUDWLRQ  PL[  VWXGLHV  WR  GHWHUPLQH  *XOI¶V  QH[W  JHQHUDWLQJ  XQLW 
DGGLWLRQ    
 ,Q FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK WKH UHVRXUFH SODQQLQJ JURXS DW )3/  *XOI KDV LQLWLDWHG 
WKH  HYDOXDWLRQ  RI  D  QXPEHU  RI  SRWHQWLDO  UHVRXUFH  RSWLRQV  WR  GHWHUPLQH  WKH  PRVW 
FRVW HIIHFWLYH PHDQV RI PHHWLQJ LWV IXWXUH FDSDFLW\ REOLJDWLRQV   7KLV HYDOXDWLRQ LV 
H[SHFWHG WR FRQWLQXH WKURXJK        7KH UHVRXUFH RSWLRQV PD\ LQFOXGH JHQHUDWLQJ 
WHFKQRORJLHV VXFK DV QDWXUDO JDV ILUHG &7  QDWXUDO JDV ILUHG &&  XWLOLW\ VFDOH VRODU 
39  DQG EDWWHU\ VWRUDJH   ,Q DGGLWLRQ  FRDO WR QDWXUDO JDV FRQYHUVLRQV RI *XOI¶V FRDO 
ILUHG XQLWV DQG SODQW XSJUDGHV PD\ EH HYDOXDWHG LQ RUGHU WR GHWHUPLQH LI WKLV ZRXOG 
SURYLGH FRVW VDYLQJV IRU *XOI¶V FXVWRPHUV    

 

64

  
 

5(1(:$%/( 5(6285&(6 
 
*XOI KDV FRQWUDFWHG IRU WKH VXSSO\ RI FDSDFLW\ DQG RU HQHUJ\ IURP VHYHUDO 
UHQHZDEOH IDFLOLWLHV   6FKHGXOH     RI WKLV 7<63 LQFOXGHV WKH DPRXQW RI UHQHZDEOH 
HQHUJ\ WKDW *XOI KDV SXUFKDVHG RU SURGXFHG IURP H[LVWLQJ UHQHZDEOH UHVRXUFHV 
DQG WKH DPRXQWV FXUUHQWO\ SURMHFWHG WR EH SURGXFHG RU SXUFKDVHG IURP H[LVWLQJ 
UHQHZDEOH UHVRXUFHV   
*XOI SXUFKDVHV UHQHZDEOH HQHUJ\ SURGXFHG E\ WKH %D\ &RXQW\ 5HVRXUFH 
5HFRYHU\  )DFLOLW\  WKURXJK  D  QHJRWLDWHG  HQHUJ\  SXUFKDVH  DJUHHPHQW  WKDW  ZDV 
H[HFXWHG LQ        7KLV IDFLOLW\  RSHUDWHG DQG PDLQWDLQHG E\ (QJHQ  //&  LV ORFDWHG 
LQ  3DQDPD  &LW\   )ORULGD   DQG  XVHV  PXQLFLSDO  VROLG  ZDVWH  WR  SURGXFH  HQHUJ\  IRU 
GHOLYHU\ WR *XOI RQ D QRQ ILUP EDVLV   3HU WHUPV RI WKH DJUHHPHQW  *XOI SXUFKDVHV 
WKH HQHUJ\ GHOLYHUHG WR LWV V\VWHP DW IL[HG SULFHV DQG WKH DJUHHPHQW H[SLUHV LQ -XO\ 
        
,Q         *XOI  EHJDQ  UHFHLYLQJ  HQHUJ\  IURP  LWV  3HUGLGR  ODQGILOO  JDV ILUHG 
JHQHUDWLQJ  IDFLOLW\  WKDW  LV  ORFDWHG  RQ  OHDVHG  SURSHUW\  DGMDFHQW  WR  (VFDPELD 
&RXQW\¶V 3HUGLGR /DQGILOO ZKLFK LV QRUWKZHVW RI 3HQVDFROD  )ORULGD   *XOIµV 3HUGLGR 
IDFLOLW\  FRQVLVWV  RI  WZR  &DWHUSLOODU  *    &  LQWHUQDO  FRPEXVWLRQ  JHQHUDWLQJ  XQLWV 
WKDW KDYH D PD[LPXP FDSDFLW\ UDWLQJ RI     0: HDFK   7KH IDFLOLW\ LV RSHUDWHG DQG 
PDLQWDLQHG XQGHU FRQWUDFW ZLWK /)* 7HFKQRORJLHV  ,QF   *XOI KDV DQ DJUHHPHQW 
ZLWK  (VFDPELD  &RXQW\   )ORULGD   IRU  WKH  SXUFKDVH  RI  WKHLU  ODQGILOO  JDV  WR  IXHO  WKLV 
*XOI RZQHG IDFLOLW\   7KH ODQGILOO JDV SXUFKDVH DJUHHPHQW KDV D WHUP RI    \HDUV  
H[SLULQJ LQ         

 

65

  
 

*XOI  3RZHU  KDV  HQHUJ\  SXUFKDVH  DJUHHPHQWV  WKDW  SURYLGH  UHQHZDEOH 
HQHUJ\  IURP  WKUHH  VRODU  IDFLOLWLHV   *XOI  &RDVW  6RODU  &HQWHU  ,   *XOI  &RDVW  6RODU 
&HQWHU ,,  DQG *XOI &RDVW 6RODU &HQWHU ,,,  DQG WZR HQHUJ\ SXUFKDVH DJUHHPHQWV 
IRU UHQHZDEOH HQHUJ\ SURGXFHG E\ WKH .LQJILVKHU :LQG SURMHFW      
,Q       *XOI 3RZHU DQG *XOI &RDVW 6RODU &HQWHU ,  ,,    ,,,  //&  VXEVLGLDULHV 
RI &RURQDO 'HYHORSPHQW 6HUYLFHV  //&  H[HFXWHG WKUHH VHSDUDWH DJUHHPHQWV WKDW 
SURYLGH IRU WKH VDOH RI HQHUJ\ SURGXFHG E\ WKH VRODU IDFLOLWLHV WR *XOI    (DFK VRODU 
HQHUJ\ SXUFKDVH DJUHHPHQW KDV D WHUP RI    \HDUV  
*XOI &RDVW 6RODU &HQWHU ,  //& RZQV  RSHUDWHV DQG PDLQWDLQV D    0: VRODU 
JHQHUDWLRQ IDFLOLW\ RQ (JOLQ $LU )RUFH %DVH LQ 2NDORRVD &RXQW\  )ORULGD   *XOI &RDVW 
6RODU  &HQWHU  ,,   //&  RZQV   RSHUDWHV  DQG  PDLQWDLQV  D      0:  VRODU  JHQHUDWLRQ 
IDFLOLW\  RQ  WKH  8 6   1DY\¶V  +ROOH\  2XWO\LQJ  )LHOG  LQ  6DQWD  5RVD  &RXQW\   )ORULGD   
*XOI  &RDVW  6RODU  &HQWHU  ,OO   //&  RZQV   RSHUDWHV  DQG  PDLQWDLQV  D      0:  VRODU 
JHQHUDWLRQ IDFLOLW\ RQ WKH 8 6  1DY\¶V 6DXIOH\ 2XWO\LQJ )LHOG LQ (VFDPELD &RXQW\  
)ORULGD   (DFK RI WKH IDFLOLWLHV LV GLUHFWO\ LQWHUFRQQHFWHG WR *XOI 3RZHU WUDQVPLVVLRQ 
IDFLOLWLHV    
,Q         *XOI  3RZHU  DQG  0RUJDQ  6WDQOH\  H[HFXWHG  DQ  HQHUJ\  SXUFKDVH 
DJUHHPHQW   .LQJILVKHU  ,   ZKLFK  KDV  D  WHUP  RI      \HDUV     7KH  .LQJILVKHU  :LQG 
SURMHFW   FRQVWUXFWHG  DV  D  UHVXOW  RI  WKLV  DJUHHPHQW   LV  ORFDWHG  LQ  .LQJILVKHU  DQG 
&DQDGLDQ  &RXQWLHV   2NODKRPD     0RUJDQ  6WDQOH\  LV  REOLJDWHG  WR  GHOLYHU  D  IL[HG 
QXPEHU RI 0:KV WR *XOI LQ HDFK KRXU RI WKH DJUHHPHQW¶V    \HDU WHUP  DQG *XOI 
ZLOO SXUFKDVH WKH HQHUJ\ DW SULFHV VSHFLILHG LQ WKH DJUHHPHQW   ,Q       *XOI DQG 
0RUJDQ  6WDQOH\  H[HFXWHG  D  VHFRQG  HQHUJ\  SXUFKDVH  DJUHHPHQW   .LQJILVKHU  ,,    
7KH .LQJILVKHU ,, DJUHHPHQW LV VXEVWDQWLDOO\ VLPLODU WR WKH .LQJILVKHU , DJUHHPHQW  
 

66

  
 

ZKHUHLQ 0RUJDQ 6WDQOH\ LV REOLJDWHG WR GHOLYHU D IL[HG QXPEHU RI 0:KV WR *XOI LQ 
HDFK KRXU RI WKH DJUHHPHQW¶V UHPDLQLQJ WHUP  DQG *XOI ZLOO SXUFKDVH WKH HQHUJ\ 
DW SULFHV VSHFLILHG LQ WKH DJUHHPHQW      
*XOI  ZLOO  FRQWLQXH  WR  HYDOXDWH  RSSRUWXQLWLHV  WR  SURYLGH  FRVW HIIHFWLYH 
UHQHZDEOH  HQHUJ\     7KLV  LQFOXGHV  RSSRUWXQLWLHV  WR  FRQVWUXFW  LWV  RZQ  IDFLOLWLHV  
SXUFKDVH  H[LVWLQJ  IDFLOLWLHV   RU  SXUFKDVH  HQHUJ\  IURP  QHZ  RU  H[LVWLQJ  UHQHZDEOH 
IDFLOLWLHV    
&RQVLVWHQW  ZLWK  VWDWH  ODZ   *XOI  PDLQWDLQV  D  5HQHZDEOH  6WDQGDUG  2IIHU 
&RQWUDFW  562&  RQ ILOH ZLWK WKH )36& ZKLFK LV FRQWLQXDOO\ DYDLODEOH WR GHYHORSHUV 
RI UHQHZDEOH UHVRXUFHV  

 

67

 68

(A)

3.0

(D)

varies

varies

68

3.9
11.3
7.6

24,699
60,000
56,246
75,750
93,003
674,437
356,843
1,340,978

34.0

89.0

3.0

2019

(4)

varies

68

3.8
11.6
7.7

24,765
60,000
56,101
75,563
92,762
675,597
357,458
1,342,246

34.0

89.0

3.0

2020

(5)

varies

68

3.9
11.6
7.5

24,699
60,000
55,678
74,985
92,064
674,437
356,843
1,338,706

34.0

89.0

3.0

2021

(6)

Owned and/or Purchased by Gulf.
MWs scheduled during the system peak hour per contract obligation to deliver fixed amount per hour.
Projected summer incremental capacity equivalent megawatts for Gulf Coast Solar Centers.
Energy produced by these customers' generators varies depending on demand for their product.

MWh

68

4.6
11.0
8.8

% of Capacity Mix
% of NEL
% of Fuel Mix

MW

23,291
46,173
56,572
77,212
93,229
674,232
356,767
1,327,476

101.0

Perdido (MWh)
Bay County (MWh)
Gulf Coast Solar Center I @ Eglin (MWh)
Gulf Coast Solar Center II @ Holley (MWh)
Gulf Coast Solar Center III @ Saufley (MWh)
Kingfisher Wind I (MWh)
Kingfisher Wind II (MWh)
Total MWh

(MW)
44.0

(C)

(B)

2018

(3)
Actuals

(MW)

Gulf Coast Solar Centers

(2) Self-Service Generation By
Renewable Generation

(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)

(2)

Perdido (MW)

Kingfisher Wind

Renewable Energy Sources
(1) Renewable Generating Capacity

(1)

varies

68

3.9
11.6
8.0

24,699
60,000
55,394
74,602
91,594
674,437
356,843
1,337,569

34.0

89.0

3.0

2022

(7)

Schedule 6.3
Renewable Energy Sources

GULF POWER COMPANY

varies

68

5.2
11.2
9.1

24,699
25,000
55,110
74,220
91,124
674,437
356,843
1,301,433

34.0

89.0

3.0

2023

(8)

varies

68

4.2
11.0
9.0

24,765
0
54,962
74,029
90,878
675,597
357,458
1,277,689

34.0

89.0

3.0

2024

(9)

varies

68

4.3
11.0
8.0

24,699
0
54,542
73,455
90,185
674,437
356,843
1,274,161

34.0

89.0

3.0

2025

(10)

varies

68

4.3
10.9
8.2

24,699
0
54,257
73,072
89,715
674,437
356,843
1,273,023

34.0

89.0

3.0

2026

(11)

varies

68

4.4
10.9
8.1

24,699
0
53,973
72,690
89,245
674,437
356,843
1,271,887

34.0

89.0

3.0

2027

(12)

varies

68

4.4
10.9
8.3

24,765
0
53,823
72,494
88,995
675,597
357,458
1,273,132

34.0

89.0

3.0

2028

(13)

  
 

35()(55(' $1' 327(17,$/ 6,7(6 )25 &$3$&,7< $'',7,216 
 
,Q LWV      7<63  *XOI LQGLFDWHG WKDW QDWXUDO JDV ILUHG JHQHUDWLRQ ZRXOG EH 
QHHGHG WR UHSODFH LWV     0: 6KHOO 33$ WKDW H[SLUHV LQ 0D\        *XOI HYDOXDWHG 
ERWK &7 DQG && JDV ILUHG JHQHUDWLRQ DW LWV H[LVWLQJ )ORULGD SODQW VLWHV  DV ZHOO DV 
LWV JUHHQILHOG VLWHV DW 6KRDO 5LYHU LQ :DOWRQ &RXQW\  DW &DU\YLOOH LQ +ROPHV &RXQW\  
DQG DW 1RUWK (VFDPELD LQ (VFDPELD &RXQW\   
(DFK  RI  WKHVH  SRWHQWLDO  VLWHV  KDV  XQLTXH  FKDUDFWHULVWLFV  WKDW  RIIHU 
FRQVWUXFWLRQ DQG RU RSHUDWLRQDO DGYDQWDJHV UHODWHG WR WKH SRWHQWLDO LQVWDOODWLRQ RI 
QDWXUDO JDV ILUHG &7V RU &&V   6LWH VHOHFWLRQ IRU *XOI¶V QH[W JHQHUDWLQJ XQLW DGGLWLRQ 
LV  EDVHG  RQ  H[LVWLQJ  LQIUDVWUXFWXUH   DYDLODEOH  DFUHDJH  DQG  ODQG  XVH   ZDWHU 
DYDLODELOLW\   WUDQVPLVVLRQ   IXHO  IDFLOLWLHV   HQYLURQPHQWDO  VWDQGDUGV   DQG  RYHUDOO 
SURMHFW HFRQRPLFV   8WLOL]LQJ DQDO\VLV RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO VLWHV DQG WHFKQRORJLHV XQGHU 
      SODQQLQJ  DVVXPSWLRQV   *XOI  GHWHUPLQHG   FRQVLVWHQW  ZLWK  ODVW  \HDU¶V  7<63 
ILOLQJ  WKDW WKH DGGLWLRQ RI D GXDO IXHO   RQ   && DW LWV 1RUWK (VFDPELD VLWH ZRXOG 
SURYLGH WKH EHVW ORQJ WHUP YDOXH IRU LWV FXVWRPHUV   *XOI ZLOO FRQWLQXH WR RIIHU WKLV 
&&  DV  LWV  QH[W  UHVRXUFH  DGGLWLRQ  LQ  WKLV  7<63  DV  HYDOXDWLRQV  RI  RWKHU  SRVVLEOH 
UHVRXUFH DGGLWLRQV WDNH SODFH LQ       
$V GLVFXVVHG EHORZ  *XOI UHIHUV WR WKH 1RUWK (VFDPELD VLWH DV WKH SUHIHUUHG 
VLWH IRU LWV QH[W UHVRXUFH QHHG  KRZHYHU  IXUWKHU ODQG DFTXLVLWLRQV PD\ EH UHTXLUHG 
WR FRPSOHWH *XOI¶V 1RUWK (VFDPELD VLWH  DQG WKHUHIRUH  LW GRHV QRW DFWXDOO\ PHHW 
WKH GHILQLWLRQ RI D ³SUHIHUUHG VLWH´ IRXQG LQ )RUP 36& (1*    (         DV DGRSWHG 
LQ 5XOH               )ORULGD $GPLQLVWUDWLYH &RGH    
 
 

69

  
 

*XOI 3UHIHUUHG 6LWH   1RUWK (VFDPELD 3URSHUW\  (VFDPELD &RXQW\ 
7KH SURMHFW VLWH LV ORFDWHG RQ XQGHYHORSHG *XOI SURSHUW\ LQ WKH QRUWKHUQ SDUW 
RI (VFDPELD &RXQW\  )ORULGD  DSSUR[LPDWHO\   PLOHV VRXWKZHVW RI &HQWXU\  )ORULGD   
,W  LV  VLWXDWHG  MXVW  ZHVW  RI  WKH  (VFDPELD  5LYHU  DQG  FDQ  EH  DFFHVVHG  YLD  &RXQW\ 
5RDG   IURP QHDUE\ 8  6  +LJKZD\      'HWDLOHG VWXGLHV WR GHWHUPLQH WKH H[DFW 
VL]H DQG SRVLWLRQ RI WKH SURMHFW VLWH ZLWKLQ WKH SURSHUW\¶V ERXQGDULHV ZRXOG QHHG WR 
EH FRPSOHWHG LQ RUGHU WR ILQDOL]H *XOI¶V SODQ    
8  6  *HRORJLFDO 6XUYH\  86*6  0DS 
7KH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI WKH DFWXDO IRRWSULQW RI WKH VLWH LV QRW FRPSOHWH DW WKLV 
WLPH    
/DQG 8VHV DQG (QYLURQPHQWDO )HDWXUHV 
7KH  1RUWK  (VFDPELD  SURSHUW\  LV  SULPDULO\  GHGLFDWHG  WR  WLPEHU  KDUYHVWLQJ 
DQG  DJULFXOWXUDO  XVH     7KH  SURSHUW\  LV  LQ  FORVH  SUR[LPLW\  WR  WUDQVPLVVLRQ  
QDWXUDO  JDV  SLSHOLQHV   UDLOURDG   PDMRU  KLJKZD\V  DQG  DFFHVV  WR  ZDWHU   DOO 
VXLWDEOH WR DFFRPPRGDWH *XOI¶V SURSRVHG   RQ   &&   7KH VLWH LV FXUUHQWO\ 
      DFUHV DQG LQFOXGHV SURSHUW\ ORFDWHG GLUHFWO\ RQ WKH (VFDPELD 5LYHU 
WR  VXSSRUW WKH  ZDWHU  VXSSO\  QHHGV  IRU  DQ\ IXWXUH  JHQHUDWLQJ  IDFLOLW\    7KH 
ODQG VXUURXQGLQJ WKH SURSHUW\ LV SULPDULO\ UXUDO DQG LV XVHG PDLQO\ IRU WLPEHU 
KDUYHVWLQJ DQG DJULFXOWXUH   *HQHUDO HQYLURQPHQWDO IHDWXUHV RI WKH SURSHUW\ 
PDLQO\  LQFOXGH  ZRRGHG  XSODQG  DUHDV   ZLWK  DUHDV  RI  KDUGZRRG SLQH  IRUHVW 
DQG ZHWODQGV   $OWKRXJK ILQDO OLQHDU IDFLOLW\ URXWHV DQG DVVRFLDWHG ODQG FRVWV 
KDYH QRW \HW EHHQ GHWHUPLQHG  DGGLWLRQDO ODQG SXUFKDVHV ZRXOG EH UHTXLUHG 
IRU JDV DQG ZDWHU SLSHOLQHV DQG GLUHFWO\ DVVRFLDWHG WUDQVPLVVLRQ OLQHV    

 

70

  
 

:DWHU 6XSSO\ 6RXUFHV  
)RU LQGXVWULDO SURFHVVLQJ  FRROLQJ  DQG RWKHU ZDWHU QHHGV  *XOI¶V SURSRVHG 
  RQ   && ZRXOG OLNHO\ XVH D FRPELQDWLRQ RI JURXQGZDWHU IURP RQ VLWH SURGXFWLRQ 
ZHOOV DQG DYDLODEOH VXUIDFH ZDWHU IURP WKH (VFDPELD 5LYHU   7KH HVWLPDWHG SHDN 
ZDWHU XVDJH IRU WKH SURSRVHG   RQ   && LV DSSUR[LPDWHO\       JDOORQV SHU PLQXWH 
 *30    ZLWK  WKH  PDMRULW\  RI  WKH  &&  ZDWHU  QHHGV  EHLQJ  UHTXLUHG  IRU  FRROLQJ 
SXUSRVHV     0RUH  SUHFLVH  ZDWHU  XVDJH  HVWLPDWHV  DUH  KLJKO\  GHSHQGHQW  XSRQ  WKH 
ILQDO  HQJLQHHULQJ  RI  WKH  VHOHFWHG  JHQHUDWLRQ  WHFKQRORJ\  DQG  TXDOLW\  RI  WKH  ZDWHU 
ERG\ DW WKLV SUHIHUUHG VLWH  

 

71

 72

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

<($5

    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

   

727$/
,167$//('
&$3$&,7<
0:  

      
 

   

   

     
     
     
     
   
   
   
   
   
   

    
 
    
    
 
 
 
 
 
 

),50
),50
&$3$&,7< &$3$&,7<
,03257 
(;3257
0:
0:

   

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

18*
0:

   

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

727$/
&$3$&,7<
$9$,/$%/(
0:

   

          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          

),50
3($.
'(0$1'
0: 

   

   

   
   
   
   
  
   
   
   
   
   

     
     
     
     
    
     
     
     
     
     

       5(6(59(
0$5*,1 %()25(
  0$,17(1$1&(
 
0:
 2) 3($.

   

    

 

    

 

 
 

121(

   
   
   
   
  
   
   
   
   
   

     
     
     
     
    
     
     
     
     
     

                      5(6(59(
  0$5*,1 $)7(5
6&+('8/('
  0$,17(1$1&(
0$,17(1$1&(
 
0:
0:
2) 3($.

    

           6&+('8/(    
)25(&$67 2) &$3$&,7<  '(0$1'  $1' 6&+('8/(' 0$,17(1$1&( $7 7,0( 2) 6800(5 3($. 

                                         *8/) 32:(5 &203$1<

 73

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

<($5

       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       

   

727$/
,167$//('
&$3$&,7<
0:  

          

   

   

   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

    
    
 
    
    
 
 
 
 
 

),50
),50
&$3$&,7< &$3$&,7<
,03257
(;3257
0:
0:

   

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

18*
0:

   

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

727$/
&$3$&,7<
$9$,/$%/(
0:

   

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

),50
3($.
'(0$1'
0:

   

   

   
     
     
     
     
   
   
   
   
   

     
     
     
     
     
    
     
     
     
     

       5(6(59(
0$5*,1 %()25(
  0$,17(1$1&(
 
0:
2) 3($.

   

121(

6&+('8/('
0$,17(1$1&(
0:

    

6&+('8/(    
)25(&$67 2) &$3$&,7<  '(0$1'  $1' 6&+('8/(' 0$,17(1$1&( $7 7,0( 2) :,17(5 3($.  

         *8/) 32:(5 &203$1<

    

   
     
     
     
     
   
   
   
   
   

     
     
     
     
     
    
     
     
     
     

       5(6(59(
  0$5*,1 $)7(5
  0$,17(1$1&(
  
 
0:
2) 3($.

    

 

 74

5

Crist

Abbreviations:

4

Pea Ridge

Crist

1-3

Plant Name
Smith

1

Unit
No.
3

Combined Cycle 2

(2)

(1)

Unit Type
FS - Fossil Steam
S - Steam
CT - Combustion Turbine
CC - Combined Cycle
IC - Internal Combustion

Escambia County
25/1N/30W

Escambia County
25/1N/30W

North Escambia
20/05N/31W

Santa Rosa County
15/1N/29W

Location
Bay County
36/2S/15W

(3)

FS

FS

CC

CT

Unit
Type
CC

(4)

--

NG

NG

(8)

WA

WA

PL

PL

PL

PL

TK

--

Fuel
Transport
Pri
Alt
PL
--

(7)

Fuel
C - Coal
NG - Natural Gas
DFO - Distillate Fuel Oil
LFG - Landfill Gas
WDS - Wood Waste Solid

C

C

NG

NG

Alt
--

(6)

DFO

Fuel
Pri
NG

(5)

06/61

07/59

06/24

05/98

Com'l InService
Mo/Yr
04/02

(10)

12/26

12/24

06/24

04/25

Effective
Date
Mo/Yr
06/19

(11)

93,750

93,750

625,000

14,250

Gen Max
Nameplate
KW
656,100

(12)

Status
CR - Certified Rating change
D - Environmental derate
P - Planned, but not authorized by utility
NC - Not yet committed for retirement
R - To effective retirement dates shown
U - Under construction, less than or
equal to 50% complete
V - Under construction, more than 50% complete

--

--

10/21

--

Const
Start
Mo/Yr
--

(9)

SCHEDULE 8
PLANNED AND PROSPECTIVE GENERATING FACILITY ADDITIONS AND CHANGES

GULF POWER COMPANY

(14)

(75.0)

(75.0)

598.0

(15.0)

Fuel Transportation
PL - Pipeline
TK - Truck
RR - Railroad
WA - Water

(75.0)

(75.0)

595.0

(12.0)

Net Capability
Summer Winter
MW
MW
17.0
16.0

(13)

NC

NC

P

R

Status
CR

(15)

 GULF POWER COMPANY
Schedule 9
Status Report and Specifications of Proposed Generating Facilities

(1)

Plant Name and Unit Number:

Combined Cycle 2

(2)

Net MW Capacity
a. Summer:
b. Winter

NG
595
598

DFO
468
488

Gross MW Capacity
a. Summer:
b. Winter

608
611

481
501

(3)

Technology Type:

(4)

Anticipated Construction Timing
a. Field construction start - date:
b. Commercial in-service date:

10/21
06/24

Fuel
a. Primary fuel:
b. Alternate fuel:

NG
DFO

(5)

Dual Fuel 1-on-1 Combined Cycle

(6)

Air Pollution Control Strategy:

SCR w/ CO catalyst

(7)

Cooling Method:

Evaporative Cooling

(8)

Total Site Area:

2,720 acres (entire site)

(9)

Construction Status:

Pending

(10)

Certification Status:

Not Applied

(11)

Status with Federal Agencies:

Not Applied

(12)

Projected Unit Performance Data
Planned Outage Factor (POF):
Unplanned Outage Factor (UOF):
Equivalent Availability Factor (EAF):
Capacity Factor (%):
Average Net Operating Heat Rate (ANOHR):

(13)

Projected Unit Financial Data
Book Life (Years):
Total Installed Cost (In-Service Year $/kW):
Direct Construction Cost ('19 $/kW):
AFUDC Amount ($/kW):
Escalation ($/kW):
Fixed O&M ('24 $/kW - Yr)

(A)

NG
DFO

6.0%
6.0%
88.0%
78.0%
6,920
6,918
40
976
830
94
52

:

55.93
1.58
1.3067

Variable O&M ('24 $/MWH):
K Factor:
(A) Fixed O&M with Firm Gas Transportation cost

75

 GULF POWER COMPANY
Schedule 10
Status Report and Specifications of Proposed Directly Associated Transmission Lines

(1) Point of Origin and Termination:

Pending Final Design

(2) Number of Lines:

Pending

(3) Right-of-Way:

Pending

(4) Line Length:

Pending

(5) Voltage:

Pending

(6) Anticipated Construction Timing:

Pending

(7) Anticipated Capital Investment:

Pending

(8) Substations:

Pending

(9) Participation with Other Utilities:

N/A

76