EFFECT OF COVID-19 ON LOCAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES PERFORMANCE AUDIT SERVICES ISSUED MAY 7, 2020 LOUISIANA LEGISLATIVE AUDITOR 1600 NORTH THIRD STREET POST OFFICE BOX 94397 BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA 70804-9397 LEGISLATIVE AUDITOR DARYL G. PURPERA, CPA, CFE ASSISTANT LEGISLATIVE AUDITOR FOR STATE AUDIT SERVICES NICOLE B. EDMONSON, CIA, CGAP, MPA DIRECTOR OF PERFORMANCE AUDIT SERVICES KAREN LEBLANC, CIA, CGAP, MSW FOR QUESTIONS RELATED TO THIS PERFORMANCE AUDIT, CONTACT EDWARD P. SEYLER, ECONOMIST, AT 225-339-3800. Under the provisions of state law, this report is a public document. A copy of this report has been submitted to the Governor, to the Attorney General, and to other public officials as required by state law. A copy of this report is available for public inspection at the Baton Rouge office of the Louisiana Legislative Auditor and online at www.lla.la.gov. This document is produced by the Louisiana Legislative Auditor, State of Louisiana, Post Office Box 94397, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70804-9397 in accordance with Louisiana Revised Statute 24:513. Ten copies of this public document were produced at an approximate cost of $19.50. This material was produced in accordance with the standards for state agencies established pursuant to R.S. 43:31. This report is available on the Legislative Auditor’s website at www.lla.la.gov. When contacting the office, you may refer to Agency ID No. 9726 or Report ID No. 40210001 for additional information. In compliance with the Americans With Disabilities Act, if you need special assistance relative to this document, or any documents of the Legislative Auditor, please contact Elizabeth Coxe, Chief Administrative Officer, at 225-339-3800. LOUISIANA LEGISLATIVE AUDITOR DARYL G. PURPERA, CPA, CFE May 7, 2020 The Honorable Patrick Page Cortez, President of the Senate The Honorable Clay Schexnayder, Speaker of the House of Representatives Dear Senator Cortez and Representative Schexnayder: My office has developed a report that provides estimates of how local government revenues will be affected by the economic downturn currently under way in Louisiana resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and the reduction of oil prices. The attached report considers scenarios in which spending on key components of the sales tax base, such as groceries, motor vehicles, manufacturing machinery and equipment, and tourism-related spending, are impacted by the social distancing measures and includes a range of possible outcomes based on historical data on economic downturns and newly-available data on COVID-19. Overall, we estimate that parish governing authorities, municipalities, school boards, and sheriffs will collectively experience revenue losses in sales, ad valorem, and severance taxes and mineral royalties ranging from $404.7 million to $1.1 billion (2.3% to 6.9%) during fiscal years 2020 and 2021, with an average total loss of $787.5 million (4.6%). These losses would be between 1.0% to 2.8% of total local government revenues from all sources, or 1.4% to 4.0% of general revenues (which excludes grants and charges for services). We hope you will find this information useful in your decision-making process. In addition to the attached report, we have included two appendices: Appendix B, which includes the estimated effects on sales and severance taxes and mineral royalties by parish, and Appendix C, which includes the estimated effects on sales and severance taxes and mineral royalties by parish and type of entity. For information regarding this report, please contact myself or Edward Seyler, LLA Economist, at 225-339-3800. Respectively Submitted, Daryl G. Purpera, CPA, CFE Louisiana Legislative Auditor DGP/ch COVID-19 1600 NORTH THIRD STREET • POST OFFICE BOX 94397 • BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA 70804-9397 WWW.LLA.LA.GOV • PHONE: 225-339-3800 • FAX: 225-339-3870 Louisiana Legislative Auditor Daryl G. Purpera, CPA, CFE Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues May 2020 Audit Control # 40210001 Introduction This report provides the results of our analysis of how local government revenues will be affected by the economic downturn currently under way in Louisiana resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and the reduction of oil prices. Specifically, this report provides estimates of how the current economic crisis will impact local government finances, particularly through sales and ad valorem tax collections, as well as mineral related revenues (i.e., severance taxes and mineral royalties). As a result of the extraordinary threat posed by COVID-19 (also known as the coronavirus), Governor John Bel Edwards declared a Public Health Emergency and issued proclamations 27-JBE-2020, 30-JBE-2020, 33-JBE-2020, and 52-JBE-2020 to protect the health and safety of the public, requiring all public schools and non-essential businesses to close, prohibiting gatherings of more than 10 people, and ordering citizens to remain in their homes (among other social distancing measures) until May 15, 2020. In addition, partly as a consequence of reduced energy demand due to COVID-19 and partly as a result of increased production by oil exporting countries, oil prices have fallen considerably. This will affect mineral-related revenues received by the state and distributed to local governments pursuant to La. Const. Art. VII Sec. 4. In addition, depressed oil and gas extraction activities could adversely impact sales and ad valorem tax collections. In light of the statewide economic downturn Factors Considered in Economic Model caused by social distancing and the related shocks to 1. Temporary increases in grocery spending. oil markets (oil shocks), and in consultation with the 2. Decreases in tourism spending. 3. Decreases in restaurant sales and employment. economists involved with the Revenue Estimating 4. Decreases in investment in manufacturing Conference, we believe that the impact on local machinery and equipment. government could be substantial and warrants further 5. Decreases in automobile sales. attention. Overall, we estimate that parish governing 6. Decreases in oil prices, production, and authorities, municipalities, school boards, and sheriffs drilling. 7. Decreases in natural gas production. will see revenue losses between $404.7 million and 8. Decreases in earnings for oil and gas workers. $1.1 billion (2.3% to 6.9%) from decreased sales and 9. Decreases in other earnings economy-wide. ad valorem taxes, as well as mineral-related revenues 10. Temporary increases in unemployment during fiscal years 2020 and 2021 1, with the loss benefits under the CARES Act. under the average scenario being $787.5 million 11. Temporary decreases in retail spending during the second quarter of calendar year 2020 (last (4.6%). These results depend on how severely the quarter of fiscal year 2020) because of the state’s economy is impacted. For every 10,000 jobs stay-at-home order. lost during the initial economic contraction, we estimate that local governments will lose $13.5 million over fiscal years 2020 and 2021. 1 Our analysis uses fiscal years ending June 30th consistent with the state’s fiscal year. Some local government entities have fiscal years ending on other dates, so the impact would be divided differently between fiscal years for those entities. 1 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Results The state has experienced an economic downturn since COVID-19 mitigation measures were implemented, which will affect tax collections of local governments. Louisiana’s local economies will likely not immediately recover to their former levels of output and tax collections after the stay-at-home order is lifted. We focused on sales tax revenues and mineral-related revenues because these two revenue sources make up 23.6% of local government budgets and are more sensitive to the economic contraction caused by COVID-19 than other revenue sources, such as Minimum Foundation Program (MFP) funding for school districts. Sales tax revenues from hotel occupancy taxes are included because of the impact tourism and travel will have on some local economies. We also estimated the impact of the economic downturn on ad valorem taxes, which account for 20.0% of local government revenues, because these taxes grow more slowly following economic downturns. We did not include grants and charges for services, which account for 29.2% of local government revenues and include sources such as Community Development Block Grant funds, utility system user fees, traffic fines, public transportation fares, and parking meter revenues, but these revenue sources could also be impacted. Figure 1 below shows the composition of local government revenues based on their actual or estimated (if actuals have not yet been reported) performance for fiscal year 2019. Figure 1 Local Government Revenue Sources for Fiscal Year 2019 Municipalities, School Boards, Sheriffs, and Parish Governing Authorities Amounts in Millions General Revenues (not elsewhere classified) $1,861 [9.5%] Charges for Services $2,933 [15.0%] Sales Tax $4,545 [23.3%] Mineral-Related Revenues $61 [0.3%] Ad Valorem Tax $3,911 [20.0%] MFP Payments $3,420 [17.5%] Operating Grants $1,839 [9.4%] Capital Grants $942 [4.8%] Source: Prepared by legislative auditor’s staff using data submitted by local government external auditors, the Louisiana Department of Education’s MFP Budget Letters, the Louisiana Department of Revenue’s Monthly Severance Tax Reports, and the U.S. Census Bureau’s Census of Local Governments. 2 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues We estimate that local government revenues from sales and ad valorem taxes and mineral-related revenues will decrease by $172.4 million to $305.5 million (2.0% to 3.6%) for fiscal year 2020, and by $232.3 million to $833.2 million (2.6% to 10.2%) for fiscal year 2021. Table 1 below summarizes our projections for fiscal years 2020 through 2021 and provides a range of possible outcomes based on an average scenario, pessimistic scenario, and optimistic scenario. The pessimistic scenario assumes that the state will experience a large drop in economic output and a slower recovery, resulting in lower tax collections. The optimistic scenario assumes that the state will experience a smaller drop and faster recovery in economic output, resulting in higher tax collections and revenues. The average scenario is a scenario that falls roughly in the middle of the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Table 2 provides additional information on how much revenue would be collected in each scenario and in each fiscal year. Table 1 Summary of Economic Scenarios and Local Government Impact Impact on Sales and Ad Valorem Tax and Mineral-Related Revenues Fiscal Years 2020 and 2021 Scenario Job Losses, April-June 2020* Reduction in Revenues (Millions of Dollars) Reduction in Revenues (Percent of Baseline) Average 256,991 $787.5 4.6% Pessimistic 317,224 $1,138.7 6.9% Optimistic 196,759 $404.7 2.3% * Our model assumes that job losses occur during the second quarter of calendar year 2020, followed by a gradual recovery, as explained in Appendix A. We estimate that actual job losses will be less than the number of continuing unemployment claims reported by the Louisiana Workforce Commission, as explained in Appendix A. Source: Prepared by legislative auditor’s staff using data sources summarized in Appendix A. Table 2 Estimated Effects of Social Distancing and Energy Market Weakness on Local Government Sales Tax, Ad Valorem Tax, and Mineral-Related Revenues Scenario Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock With COVID-19 and Oil Shock (Average) With COVID-19 and Oil Shock (Pessimistic) With COVID-19 and Oil Shock (Optimistic) Fiscal Year 2020 Collections Fiscal Year 2021 Total $8,743,657,389 $9,006,735,371 $17,750,392,760 0 0 0 8,503,097,887 8,459,843,725 16,962,941,613 -240,559,502 -546,891,645 -787,451,147 Collections 8,438,156,372 8,173,564,301 16,611,720,673 Effect Collections -305,501,017 8,571,302,337 -833,171,070 8,774,406,286 -1,138,672,087 17,345,708,623 -172,355,052 -232,329,084 -404,684,136 Effect Collections Effect Effect Source: Prepared by legislative auditor's staff using data sources summarized in Appendix A. Note: Assumptions for each scenario are further explained in Appendix A. We analyzed local governments that fell into four categories: municipalities (villages, towns, and cities), parish governing authorities (parish councils, police juries, and councils of consolidated parish governments), school boards, and sheriffs because these four types of entities 3 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues (or their component units) account for almost all of the sales taxes received by local governments. We did not include hospital service districts because these entities generally do not receive sales taxes; however, hospital service districts will likely experience reduced revenues from the cancellation of non-essential medical procedures and increased costs from responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. We project that sales tax collections will decrease by 3.8% to 7.0% in fiscal year 2020 and 4.8% to 20.5% in fiscal year 2021. Under the average scenario, every parish (except Cameron, which has no local sales tax) is projected to experience at least a 4.2% decrease in sales taxes during fiscal year 2021, with Orleans Parish having the largest declines, 11.2% in fiscal year 2020 and 30.4% in fiscal year 2021. Louisiana’s local governments are especially vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic because local governments in Louisiana rely more on sales tax than local governments in other states, 2 and because tourism is a significant contributor to the state’s economy, primarily in New Orleans but also in other parts of the state, particularly areas with riverboat casinos. We project that local governments in Orleans Parish will experience a reduction in sales and ad valorem taxes, as well as mineralrelated revenues totaling $45.5 million for fiscal year 2020 and $130.0 million for fiscal year 2021. We project that ad valorem and sales tax collections and mineral-related revenues for the City of New Orleans, the Orleans Parish School Board, and the Orleans Parish Sheriff would have been $942.8 million for calendar year 2020. However, the Hospitality Research Center at the University of New Orleans estimated that direct tourism spending in Orleans Parish resulted in $250.3 million in local tax revenue during calendar year 2018, growing at 9% per year. 3 This implies that tourism-related spending accounts for approximately one-third of sales tax and related revenues in Orleans Parish, or 12.6% of the $2.0 billion in total revenues for these three entities. With the stay-at-home order remaining in place through May 15 and if national travel advisories remain in place through the second quarter of calendar year 2020, it is possible that local governments in Orleans Parish will not collect any tourism-related revenues during the second quarter. This would result in a 25% decrease in such revenues for the 2020 fiscal year, with any continued reduction in travel in the third and fourth quarters of the calendar year only adding to its shortfall for the City’s 2020 fiscal year, which ends December 31 (the school board’s fiscal year ends June 30). For the state’s 2021 fiscal year beginning in July 2020, we estimate that revenues for the City of New Orleans will decline by $80.5 million. We project that the largest impacts in terms of dollars will be in Orleans, Jefferson, East Baton Rouge, Calcasieu, and St. Tammany Parishes, in descending order. Figure 2 below shows the path of sales and ad valorem taxes over time under the baseline scenario and with the effects of COVID19. 2 Richardson, James A., Steven M. Sheffrin, and James Alm. Exploring Long-Term Solutions for Louisiana’s Tax System. “Challenges for Sales Tax in Louisiana,” page 37. 3 Charters, Heidi. "Tourism Spending in Louisiana Parishes 2018." UNO Hospital Research Center White Paper. 4 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Figure 2 Local Government Sales and Ad Valorem Taxes Fiscal Years 2010 through 2021 Average Scenario $5.0 Billions $4.5 Sales Taxes (Without Covid) Sales $4.0 Sales Taxes (With Covid) $3.5 Ad Valorem Taxes (Without Covid) Ad Valorem Ad Valorem Taxes (With Covid) $3.0 $2.5 2005 2010 2015 Fiscal Year 2020 2025 Source: Prepared by legislative auditor’s staff using data sources summarized in Appendix A. The remainder of this report includes tables showing the estimated impacts by parish and local government type. Table 3 shows these effects for the average scenario by local government type. Table 4 shows these effects for the average scenario by parish for the state’s 10 most impacted parishes. Figure 3 shows the percentage reduction in sales and ad valorem taxes and mineral-related revenues for fiscal year 2020 for all municipalities, parish governing authorities, school boards, and sheriffs in each parish. In addition, Appendix B summarizes the estimated effects on ad valorem and sales taxes, as well as mineral-related revenues by parish, and Appendix C summarizes the estimated effects on ad valorem and sales taxes, as well as mineralrelated revenues by parish and type of entity. 5 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Table 3 Effects of COVID-19 and Oil Shock on Local Government Revenues Ad Valorem and Sales Taxes, Mineral Royalties, and Severance Taxes Average Scenario Type of Entity and Scenario Fiscal Year 2020 Fiscal Year 2021 Total $1,690,819,075 $1,746,753,460 $3,437,572,535 1,630,741,242 1,593,305,072 3,224,046,314 -60,077,833 -153,448,388 -213,526,221 Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock 2,414,831,220 2,474,793,820 4,889,625,040 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock 2,350,046,858 2,342,164,606 4,692,211,464 -64,784,362 -132,629,213 -197,413,576 Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock 3,799,447,396 3,920,020,244 7,719,467,640 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock 3,697,701,655 3,688,862,114 7,386,563,768 -101,745,741 -231,158,130 -332,903,872 Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock 838,559,698 865,167,847 1,703,727,545 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock 824,608,133 835,511,933 1,660,120,067 Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock -13,951,565 -29,655,914 -43,607,479 Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock $8,743,657,389 $9,006,735,371 $17,750,392,760 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock $8,503,097,887 $8,459,843,725 $16,962,941,613 -$240,559,502 -$546,891,645 -$787,451,147 Municipalities* Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock With COVID-19 and Oil Shock Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock Parish Governing Authorities** Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock School Boards Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock Sheriffs Total Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock *Municipalities include villages, towns, and cities. **Parish governing authorities include parish councils, police juries, governing boards of consolidated city-parish governments, and other related bodies. Source: Prepared by legislative auditor's staff using data sources summarized in Appendix A. 6 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Table 4 Effects of COVID-19 on Revenues by Parish for 10 Most Impacted Parishes Sales, Ad Valorem, and Severance Taxes and Mineral Royalties Average Scenario Parish Fiscal Year 2020 Fiscal Year 2021 Grand Total All Other Parishes Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock $3,247,523,033 $3,339,425,487 $6,586,948,520 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock 3,175,058,289 3,182,947,773 6,358,006,062 Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock -72,464,745 -156,477,714 -228,942,458 Orleans Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock 942,751,916 994,887,598 1,937,639,514 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock 897,220,937 864,857,959 1,762,078,896 Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock -45,530,979 -130,029,639 -175,560,618 Jefferson Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock 802,339,157 821,639,312 1,623,978,469 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock 776,677,555 766,981,570 1,543,659,125 Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock -25,661,602 -54,657,742 -80,319,344 East Baton Rouge Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock 925,821,598 949,516,752 1,875,338,350 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock 900,553,216 905,034,604 1,805,587,820 Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock -25,268,382 -44,482,148 -69,750,530 Calcasieu Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock 561,149,925 593,216,272 1,154,366,197 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock 546,865,701 553,738,141 1,100,603,842 Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock -14,284,225 -39,478,131 -53,762,355 St. Tammany Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock 453,207,254 466,299,886 919,507,140 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock 439,166,715 435,700,910 874,867,626 Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock -14,040,539 -30,598,976 -44,639,514 Lafayette Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock 447,190,882 454,614,141 901,805,023 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock 435,716,751 428,438,619 864,155,369 Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock -11,474,131 -26,175,523 -37,649,654 Caddo Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock 523,105,672 532,423,738 1,055,529,410 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock 514,899,579 511,948,561 1,026,848,140 Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock -8,206,093 -20,475,177 -28,681,270 Bossier Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock 237,132,692 242,991,032 480,123,724 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock 228,357,103 225,335,027 453,692,130 Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock -8,775,589 -17,656,005 -26,431,594 Ouachita Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock 296,330,394 296,372,921 592,703,315 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock 287,937,992 282,673,354 570,611,347 Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock -8,392,402 -13,699,566 -22,091,968 Ascension Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock 307,104,865 315,348,232 622,453,096 With COVID-19 and Oil Shock 300,644,049 302,187,207 602,831,256 Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock -6,460,816 -13,161,025 -19,621,841 Total Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock $8,743,657,389 $9,006,735,371 $17,750,392,760 Total With COVID-19 and Oil Shock $8,503,097,887 $8,459,843,725 $16,962,941,613 Total Effect of COVID-19 and Oil Shock -$240,559,502 -$546,891,645 -$787,451,147 * These estimates could vary based on different assumptions about the course of the economy over the next 14 months. The results presented here represent an average scenario. Source: Prepared by legislative auditor's staff using data sources summarized in Appendix A. 7 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Figure 3 Decrease in Sales and Ad Valorem Taxes and Mineral-Related Revenues Municipalities, Parish Governing Authorities, School Boards, and Sheriffs Fiscal Year 2021 Average Scenario Source: Prepared by legislative auditor’s staff using data sources summarized in Appendix A. 8 APPENDIX A: SOURCES, METHODOLOGY, AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Sources  Mineral production and royalty data from the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources.  Severance Tax Collections by parish and commodity from the Louisiana Department of Revenue.  Hotel occupancy and tax data provided by the Louisiana Department of Culture, Recreation, and Tourism.  Upton, Gregory B., and James A. Richardson. “Mineral Revenues in Louisiana.” March 2020. https://www.lsu.edu/ces/publications/2020/mineral-revenues-inlouisiana-online-df.pdf  2012 and 2017 Census of Local Governments and Economic Census, U.S. Census Bureau.  MFP Budget Letters for fiscal years 2016 through 2020, and Sales and Property Tax data from fiscal years 2008 through 2015, Louisiana Department of Education.  Local government financial data keyed in by external certified public accountants in the Early Warning System, maintained by LLA Local Government Services Section.  Annual financial reports provided to LLA by local government entities.  Ad valorem tax data from annual reports for 2008 through 2019, Louisiana Tax Commission.  Table of tax exemptions by parish, Sales Tax Streamlining and Modernization Commission, October 2015 meeting materials. https://house.louisiana.gov/TSMC/Documents/2015/Oct/Optional%20exemptions%2 0from%20local%20sales%20and%20use%20tax%20oct%207%2015.pdf  Sheffrin, Steven M. “Challenges for the Sales Tax in Louisiana.” Exploring LongTerm Solutions for Louisiana’s Tax System. LSU Press, 2018.  Charters, Heidi. "Tourism Spending in Louisiana Parishes 2018." UNO Hospitality Research Center White Paper.  FRED Data Repository, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. A.1 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Appendix A  Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for 2006-2019, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.  “Parish and Municipal Motor Vehicle Sales and Use Tax Escrow Fund,” released June 26, 2019, LLA Financial Audit Services, audit control number 80180165. http://app.lla.state.la.us/PublicReports.nsf/0/12AC5FF28E18AC2686258424006FFB BC/$FILE/0001D165.pdf.  Jurisdiction and sales tax rate information from the Louisiana Association of Tax Administrators website, https://lataonline.org/for-taxpayers/city-to-parish-index/.  Other sources included below. Methodology We calculated the amount of sales taxes for each local government entity using information in the Minimum Foundation Program (MFP) Budget Letter prepared by the Louisiana Department of Education, the U.S. Census Bureau’s Census of Governments for municipalities, or each entity’s audited financial statements. The U.S. Census Bureau does not separately report sales tax collections for sheriffs and parish governing authorities, so we obtained sales tax collections for these entities from the statement of activities in their government-wide financial statements. The Census Bureau’s most recent estimates were for fiscal year 2017, so we projected these forward using parish-wide sales tax collections in the MFP budget letter, and then using a simple trend based on the average growth rate over the preceding three fiscal years for that entity. For mineral revenues, we obtained severance tax data from the Department of Revenue and mineral royalties data from the Department of Natural Resources and estimated the amount distributed to each parish governing authority using the formulas provided in La. Const. Art. VII Sec. 4. The baseline scenario assumes that local governments will continue on the same growth rate, and is labeled in tables 2, 3, and 4 above as “Without COVID-19 and Oil Shock.” The COVID-19 scenarios are divided into average, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios. These three scenarios assume a rapid initial decline in the second quarter of calendar year 2020, followed by a gradual recovery. If COVID-19 makes a resurgence in the coming months and causes a decline in consumption either due to voluntary action by consumers or mandatory stay-at-home orders, this could have further negative impacts on local government beyond those considered in this report. The pessimistic scenario assumes a severe initial economic contraction and a slow recovery to the economy’s former growth trajectory. The optimistic scenario assumes a less severe initial contraction and a full recovery by the second quarter of calendar year 2021. Oil prices in the average scenario are based on prices from the futures market, with the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios reflecting more or less rapid recovery of prices. The effects on oil production were estimated using the elasticities reported by James Richardson and Gregory Upton in the “Mineral Revenues in Louisiana” whitepaper released in March. Natural gas production is assumed to have no price change, but a 10% drop in production in the mean scenario. The estimated impacts on other aspects of the tax base are based on news reports and other sources. We analyzed the sales tax base in each parish and divided it up into tourism related spending, groceries [less Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits], prescription drugs, manufacturing machinery and equipment, motor vehicle purchases, other retail, and all other purchases. Tourism spending was estimated using spending amounts by category reported by the A.2 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Appendix A UNO Hospitality Research Center, spending on prescription drugs and groceries was obtained from the Economic Census (or, where missing, estimated using regression analysis), SNAP benefits were estimated based on regional benefit amounts published in the Department of Children and Family Services’ annual reports, manufacturing machinery and equipment was allocated from the amount reported in the Tax Exemption Budget to each parish using the fair market value of machinery and equipment in each parish reported in the Louisiana Tax Commission’s annual reports, and other retail was the residual portion of the retail tax base. The overall retail sales tax base was obtained from the Economic Census and calibrated using the sales tax base data contained in comprehensive annual financial reports, where available. The remaining portion of the sales tax base consisted of all other sales not elsewhere classified, and includes various business-to-business transactions, as well as transactions reported by services companies outside of the accommodation and food services (NAICS 72) group. The effect of COVID-19 is shown on each of these areas below for three scenarios, and the assumptions used to derive these scenarios are explained in bullet points below the table. Table A.1 shows summary statistics, and table A.2 summarizes the economic scenarios for each sector and the estimated years to recover to pre-COVID levels. Table A.1 Summary Statistics on Parish-Level Variables Variable Tourism as % of sales tax base Count* 63 Mean 0.043 S.D. 0.057 Min. 0.004 Max. 0.432 Groceries as % of sales tax base 63 0.076 0.036 0.015 0.197 SNAP as % of sales tax base 63 0.018 0.009 0.004 0.047 Rx. drugs as % of sales tax base 63 0.139 0.062 0.035 0.353 Motor vehicles as % of sales tax base 63 0.149 0.064 0.052 0.368 Other retail as % of sales tax base Manuf. Machinery and Equip. as % of sales tax base Other sales as % of sales tax base 63 0.061 0.084 0.000 0.457 63 0.021 0.022 0.000 0.093 63 0.531 0.159 0.085 0.857 Sales tax base (millions of dollars) Restaurants (NAICS 722) as % of wage base Accommodation (NAICS 721) as % of wage base 63 1,556.341 2,421.976 49.580 10,234.999 64 0.022 0.012 0.002 0.069 64 0.004 0.008 0.000 0.042 Mining (NAICS 21) as % of wage base 64 0.036 0.059 0.000 0.263 Other earnings as % of wage base Total private sector wages and salaries (millions) Ad valorem tax base (millions) 64 0.937 0.062 0.724 0.997 64 1,207.901 2,257.471 14.807 12,045.492 64 774.580 1,053.028 49.852 4,955.725 * Sales-tax related data are not shown for Cameron Parish, the only parish with no local sales tax. Source: Prepared by legislative auditor’s staff using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Louisiana Tax Commission, Louisiana Department of Education, Louisiana Department of Revenue, Louisiana Department of Children and Family Services, Louisiana Department of Public Safety, and U.N.O. Hospitality Research Center. A.3 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Sector Appendix A Table A.2 Summary of Economic Scenarios for Each Sector Impact in Scenario Calendar Year (CY) 2020, Quarter 2 Groceries Tourism Restaurant Earnings Manuf. Machinery & Equip. Automobile Sales Oil Prices Oil Production Natural Gas Prices Natural Gas Production Upstream Energy Earnings Other Earnings (Before Unemployment Benefits) CARES Act Unemployment Benefits ($/week) Baseline Unemployment Benefits Retail Spending During Stay-atHome Period Average Pessimistic Optimistic Average Pessimistic Optimistic Average Pessimistic Optimistic Average Pessimistic Optimistic Average Pessimistic Optimistic Average Pessimistic Optimistic Average Pessimistic Optimistic Average Pessimistic Optimistic Average Pessimistic Optimistic Average Pessimistic Optimistic Average Pessimistic Optimistic Average Pessimistic Optimistic Average Pessimistic Optimistic Average Pessimistic Optimistic Years to Recover to Pre-COVID Trend 36.0% 10.0% 62.0% -90.0% -100.0% -80.0% -60.0% -70.0% -50.0% -58.3% -75.5% -41.0% -18.8% -23.8% -13.8% -47.7% -52.7% -42.7% -6.4% -7.1% -5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -10.0% -15.0% -5.0% -69.1% -76.4% -61.9% -5.2% -7.3% -2.5% 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 1.0 8.0 10.0 3.0 8.0 10.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 8.0 10.0 3.0 3.0 5.0 2.0 Through July 31, 2020: $600 After July 31, 2020: $0 0.3 $230 per week -50% till May 15, 0% by June 30 -60% till May 15, 0% by June 30 -40% till May 15, 0% by June 30 Entire Period 2nd Quarter of CY 2020 Only Source: Projections made by legislative auditor's staff based on S&P Futures Market Data, oil market characteristics reported by the LSU Center for Energy Studies and Public Administration Institute, tax information from the Department of Revenue and the Louisiana Tax Commission, sales reports from the Baton Rouge Area Chamber, and news reports. A.4 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Appendix A The assumptions for these scenarios were as follows:  Grocery sales were based on a Winsight Grocery Business Report estimating grocery sales would be up 32-62% for the second quarter of calendar year 2020 and 8-15% for fiscal year 2021. We used 62% as the optimistic figure, but chose a more conservative estimate of 10% growth in grocery sales as the pessimistic number. The average scenario is the average of these two impact factors. We assume that in all scenarios that grocery demand will return to its former trend within one year.  Tourism numbers were based on a report that Baton Rouge Airport traffic had fallen by 90%, and based on national advisories and statewide orders against nonessential travel. The optimistic scenario has travel recovering fully by June of next year, while the pessimistic scenario has travel recovering over a five-year period.  Restaurant earnings are the impact of COVID-19 on the wages and salaries of restaurant and bar employees. Our estimates are based on a report from the website rallyforrestaurants.com, which reports data on restaurant sales by state. This website shows that Louisiana restaurant sales reached their lowest point during the week of March 23, at which point they were 83.6% below their preCOVID baseline, and since then they have recovered at a rate of 3.3% per week. We projected that the second quarter of calendar year 2020 would see restaurant sales depressed by 57.5%, based on the Rally for Restaurants data. As a result, we estimated that earnings for restaurant employees would decline 60% in the average scenario, plus or minus 10% in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.  Manufacturing machinery and equipment (MM&E) was estimated to fall in the second quarter of calendar year 2020 by 75.5% in the pessimistic scenario or 41.0% in the optimistic scenario. The pessimistic scenario is based on the decline in manufacturing production from July 1929 until March 1933, representing the full decline in manufacturing production that occurred during the Great Depression, with 133 months elapsing before production returned to its 1929 peak. 4 The optimistic scenario was derived based on the fall in manufacturer’s machinery orders from April 2008 until April 2009. 5 The optimistic scenario assumes that MM&E sales will rebound to its previous trend by the second quarter of calendar year 2021, while the pessimistic scenario assumes that the rebound will occur by the second quarter of calendar year 2025.  Automobile sales are projected to decrease by 18.8% initially in the average scenario, plus or minus 5 percentage points in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. This figure was based on reports from J.D. Power that automobile sales 4 Based on the Index of Production of Machinery for United States, NBER Macrohistory Database, retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED System (series identifier M0177BUSM343SNBR). 5 Based on the series titled “Value of Manufacturers' New Orders for Durable Goods Industries: Machinery,” released by the U.S. Census Bureau and retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED system (series identifier A33SNO), A.5 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Appendix A were down 55% during the first 12 days of April and were forecast to be down 19.4% for the year. 6 As explained below in the bullet labeled “Impact during lockdown,” we assume that auto sales will be significantly depressed during the second quarter of calendar year 2020 during the lockdown. Thus, the combined effect of the lockdown and the general slump in auto sales during the second quarter of calendar year 2020 will be a 56.3% decrease in the average scenario. When the lockdown is lifted, we assume that sales will increase but will still be adversely affected by the uncertain economic climate and by reductions in household incomes from job losses. Because Louisiana’s economy is likely to be harder hit than the national economy, we used the J.D. Power report to develop an optimistic scenario. We assume a three-year recovery and solved for an initial drop and rate of recovery that would result in a 19.4% drop in auto sales for calendar year 2020. The average scenario is 5 percentage points lower than the optimistic scenario, and the pessimistic scenario is another 5 percentage points lower. For comparison, passenger car registrations dropped 71.8% from 1929 to 1932. 7 During the Great Recession, automobile sales fell by 34.2% between October 2007 and March 2009, and took 5.4 years to recover. The Census Bureau estimated that automobile sales fell by 27.1% in March 2020 from their February 2020 level on a seasonally-adjusted basis. In addition, a news report indicated that consumer spending on automobiles were 32% lower than in 2019 in the first week of April. 8  Ad valorem taxes were modeled using an Arellano-Bond estimator, relating the ad valorem tax base in each parish to the amount of private-sector wages in each parish. Separate regressions were performed for real property (e.g., buildings, land, and crops), personal property (e.g., machinery and equipment, furniture and fixtures, inventories, and vehicles without license plates), and public service property (e.g., real and personal property owned by pipeline, electric, railroad, landline telephone, airline, and barge companies). Real property and public service property showed no significant relationship between wages and assessed values, but regressions with personal property did result in elasticities of 0.16 and 0.08 for the first and second lags of wages, respectively, when estimated in logs. Decreases in assessed values are not common, but they can occur, particularly at the parish level and particularly for property types other than real property. Over tax years 2009 to 2018, parish-level property values decreased year-over-year 3.3% of the time for real property, 37.2% of the time for personal property, and 25.9% of the time for public service property. 6 “The coronavirus pandemic isn’t hurting US auto sales as much as feared, J.D. Power says.” CNBC. April 16, 2020. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/the-coronavirus-pandemic-isnt-hurting-us-auto-sales-as-much-as-fearedjd-power-says.html 7 Based on the series titled “New Passenger Car Registrations for United States,” NBER Macrohistory Database, retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED System (series identifier M01109USM543NNBR), transformed to annual data using yearly averages to remove seasonality. 8 “How the Virus Transformed the Way Americans Spend Their Money.” New York Times, April 11, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/11/business/economy/coronavirus-us-economy-spending.html A.6 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Appendix A  Oil prices in the average scenario are based on prices in the futures market, and production volumes are based on production elasticities from the “Mineral Revenues in Louisiana” whitepaper by James Richardson and Gregory Upton. Natural gas prices, which were already low by historical standards, are assumed to remain constant, with production decreasing by 5% to 15%.  Oil production is assumed to decrease in response to the drop in oil prices. Oil production was stratified by well age, and elasticities specific to each age cohort were applied to past production to project the amount of production under the various oil price scenarios described previously. Severance tax and mineral royalty collections in each parish were based on reports from the Louisiana Department of Revenue and the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources.  Upstream energy earnings were assumed to decrease by the same proportion as the projected change in oil and gas production obtained using the drilling elasticities estimated by Richardson and Upton (2020).  Other earnings before unemployment benefits are projected to fall 5.2% initially and rebound over a three-year period under the mean scenario. The pessimistic scenario assumes a five-year recovery and 7.3 percent initial drop, while the optimistic scenario assumes a two-year recovery and 2.5% initial drop. These initial drops in these industries were designed to coincide with an overall unemployment rate of 18.0% (24.5% reported) in the average scenario, 15.0% (21.5% reported) in the optimistic scenario, and 21.0% (27.5% reported) in the pessimistic scenario. We assume that wages are rigid downward and that reductions in wages and salaries will occur entirely through job losses.  Actual Job Losses vs. Reported Unemployment. Actual unemployment rates differ from the reported rates because of the noted tendency of labor force participation in Louisiana to increase following severe events, such as in September 2005 after Hurricane Katrina or in March 2020 with COVID-19. This is likely an artificial increase resulting from how the Bureau of Labor Statistics defines an “unemployed” person, which is someone who is not employed but who is actively seeking work. A person who is not employed but who is only passively seeking work, e.g., by reading classified advertisements without contacting a potential employer, is not counted as unemployed. However, a person is required to actively seek work as a condition of receiving unemployment insurance benefits. This likely induces some individuals to engage in active job searching who would otherwise not have done so. For example, in the months following Hurricane Katrina, actual job losses statewide (excluding gains in construction) were 45,226, even though 406,874 initial unemployment insurance claims were filed, and continuing claims reached a maximum of 211,454. This implies that actual job losses following hurricane Katrina were only 78.6% of the continuing claims. A.7 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues  Appendix A  Survey shows 48,500 job losses. One hard data point is the March 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) by the U.S. Census Bureau, which shows that the number of persons employed in Louisiana declined by approximately 48,500 from February to March (per the microdata). The CPS uses the week containing the twelfth day of the month as the “reference week” for the month in question, which ended on March 14, prior to the Governor’s stay-at-home order, which was issued on March 22. Job losses may be significantly higher in April.  Final Result. We noted that the Congressional Budget Office forecasts unemployment of 14% and 16% in the second and third quarters of calendar year 2020. Noting that Louisiana’s economy consists of 8.3% accommodation and food services jobs and 3.0% upstream energy jobs, and that Louisiana’s unemployment rate during calendar year 2019 was 1.1 percentage points higher than the national average, we derived estimates centered around 18.0%, plus or minus 3 percentage points, and then adjusted these to account for the spike in individuals returning to the labor force so that they can receive unemployment benefits. These correspond to job losses of 196,759 to 317,224, with a midpoint of 256,991. Other sales, retail and non-retail, are projected to decrease initially as a result of the stay-at-home order, rise quickly when retail shops can reopen, but still remain below trend due to the general economic downturn.  Impact during lockdown. During this period, we estimate that the lockdown will impact retail sales by 40%, 50%, and 60% in each of the three scenarios. In our model, the lockdown is in full force through May 15, and then gradually dissipates by June 30, so the total impact of the lockdown for the second quarter of calendar year 2020 is 30%, 37.5%, or 45% in each of the three scenarios, which is added to the impact of the reduction in household income. The state could see additional sales from online purchases or pent-up demand that may boost sales as the economy opens up, but early reports from states that have lifted their stay-at-home orders do not suggest a surge in demand, and brick-and-mortar retail stores in Louisiana will still face occupancy restrictions. The lockdown is assumed to affect automobile sales as well as other retail not already classified as grocery or prescription drugs. Tourism-related retail is already assumed to be significantly impacted for this second quarter and simply follows the trend in tourism activity described above.  Impact after lockdown. Once the stay-at-home order is lifted, the impact on retail sales is based solely on the reduction in household income. We estimated the relationship between these variables using a regression analysis. Specifically, these decreases were 2.0% to 5.4% for other retail sales and 3.6% to 9.4% for other non-retail sales in fiscal year 2021, with A.8 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Appendix A the time to recovery dictated by the recovery period for earnings in each of the three earnings sectors.  Definition of each category. Other retail sales include sales by department stores, hardware stores, music stores, book stores, and other retailers not categorized as food stores or drug stores. Non-retail sales include taxable business-to-business purchases as well as sales reported by services companies.  Estimation of relationship. We estimated the elasticity between parishlevel earnings and each parish’s sales tax base using an Arellano-Bond estimator using taxable sales in each parish over fiscal years 2007 to 2019. Based on several specifications, we specified that the sales tax-wages elasticities were 0.8 for contemporaneous log wages and -0.3 for the first lag, with the coefficients on lagged log sales taxes being 0.5 for the first lag and -0.2 for the second lag.  Comparison to external benchmarks. For comparison, Google Mobility Reports for the state of Louisiana showed a 45% drop in visits to “retail and recreation” locations as of April 11, 2020. In addition, a news report indicated that consumer spending on “shopping” purchases (as opposed to groceries, health and beauty, entertainment, restaurants, transportation, and travel) was down approximately 56% as of April 1. 9  CARES Act Unemployment Benefits (Public Law 116-136) are available through the July 31, 2020, per Section 2104 (e)(2) of the Act. Under the average scenario, the absence of these benefits would increase the loss to local governments over fiscal years 2020 and 2021 by $8.3 million. We also included an additional $230 per week in ordinary state unemployment benefits, which was calculated based on an analysis of unemployment benefits paid out and average weekly continuing claims during the third quarter of calendar year 2019. As noted previously in the bullet “Actual Job Losses vs. Reported Unemployment,” it is possible that the number of continuing unemployment claims will exceed the number of job losses, particularly at first. However, in ordinary circumstances the number of people receiving unemployment benefits is significantly less than the number of people who are classified as unemployed. Because these two trends push in opposite directions, we assume that the CARES Act benefits will go only to people who lost jobs, and people who lost their jobs will receive CARES Act benefits. Insofar as unemployment claims exceed job losses, this would increase local government tax collections, and if people who lose their jobs do not claim unemployment benefits, this will reduce local government tax collections.  Baseline Unemployment Benefits of $230 per week are used, based on the average of weekly benefits paid divided by weekly continuing claims for the week ending July 13, 2019, through the week ending September 28, 2019. 9 “How the Virus Transformed the Way Americans Spend Their Money.” New York Times, April 11, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/11/business/economy/coronavirus-us-economy-spending.html A.9 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Appendix A  Payroll Protection Plan (PPP) forgivable loans to businesses are accounted for in the model implicitly in the unemployment numbers. The wages for employees who are still being paid by their employers include wages that were funded by the PPP program.  Fiscal years conform to the state’s fiscal year ending June 30. Many local governments use fiscal years ending on a different date, so entity-level results for individual fiscal years may differ from the results presented here due to the differences in timing.  Future lockdowns are not anticipated in our model. If the virus makes a resurgence during fiscal year 2021 and requires a return to mitigation measures such as stay-at-home orders, these measures would have additional negative consequences for local governments that are not currently reflected in our model. Acknowledgements We appreciate the feedback received by several individuals and organizations in this process, particularly Lynne Coxwell at the Department of Culture, Recreation, and Tourism; Greg Upton at the LSU Center for Energy Studies; Edward O’Brien at the Department of Natural Resources; Stephen Barnes at the UL Blanco Public Policy Center; Manfred Dix at the Division of Administration; Greg Albrecht at the Legislative Fiscal Office; Mark West at the Louisiana Association of Tax Administrators; Karen White at the Louisiana Municipal Association; Dan Groft at McNeese State University; Samjhauta Wagle at the Louisiana Department of Revenue; and Alí Bustamante at the Louisiana Workforce Commission. However, we alone are responsible for the information contained in this report. A.10 APPENDIX B: ESTIMATED EFFECTS SOCIAL DISTANCING AND ENERGY MARKET WEAKNESS FROM COVID-19 ON LOCAL GOVERNMENT SALES TAX, AD VALOREM TAX, AND MINERAL-RELATED REVENUES, BY PARISH (in alphabetical order) (DOLLAR AMOUNTS IN THOUSANDS) Baseline (Without COVID) Scenario Parish Acadia FY Avoyelles Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) -1,707 -2.6% 64,008 -2,304 -3.5% 65,229 -1,083 -1.6% 2021 66,275 63,551 -2,724 -4.1% 61,896 -4,379 -6.6% 65,688 -587 -0.9% 132,587 128,155 -4,431 -3.3% 125,904 -6,682 -5.0% 130,917 -1,670 -1.3% 2020 30,239 29,672 -567 -1.9% 29,427 -812 -2.7% 29,927 -312 -1.0% 2021 31,777 30,609 -1,168 -3.7% 29,853 -1,923 -6.1% 31,476 -301 -0.9% 62,016 60,281 -1,735 -2.8% 59,280 -2,736 -4.4% 61,404 -612 -1.0% 2020 307,105 300,644 -6,461 -2.1% 298,496 -8,609 -2.8% 302,928 -4,177 -1.4% 2021 315,348 302,187 -13,161 -4.2% 295,025 -20,323 -6.4% 311,233 -4,115 -1.3% 622,453 602,831 -19,622 -3.2% 593,521 -28,932 -4.6% 614,161 -8,292 -1.3% 2020 30,586 30,081 -505 -1.7% 29,886 -701 -2.3% 30,283 -303 -1.0% 2021 31,940 30,982 -958 -3.0% 30,398 -1,542 -4.8% 31,641 -299 -0.9% 62,526 61,063 -1,463 -2.3% 60,283 -2,243 -3.6% 61,924 -602 -1.0% 2020 28,718 27,933 -786 -2.7% 27,665 -1,053 -3.7% 28,212 -506 -1.8% 2021 29,107 27,970 -1,137 -3.9% 27,276 -1,831 -6.3% 28,806 -300 -1.0% 57,825 55,903 -1,922 -3.3% 54,941 -2,884 -5.0% 57,018 -807 -1.4% Assumption Total Avoyelles Effect of COVID ($) 64,605 Ascension Total Assumption Revenue ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) 66,312 Allen Total Ascension Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) 2020 Acadia Total Allen Revenue ($) Average Scenario (With COVID) Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands B.1 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Baseline (Without COVID) Scenario Parish Beauregard FY Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) -1.9% 54,352 -1,488 -2.7% 55,188 -653 -1.2% -2,333 -4.1% 53,568 -3,690 -6.4% 56,388 -869 -1.5% 113,098 109,685 -3,413 -3.0% 107,920 -5,178 -4.6% 111,576 -1,522 -1.3% 2020 40,243 39,905 -338 -0.8% 39,802 -441 -1.1% 40,016 -227 -0.6% 2021 40,590 39,659 -931 -2.3% 39,152 -1,438 -3.5% 40,069 -521 -1.3% 80,833 79,564 -1,268 -1.6% 78,954 -1,879 -2.3% 80,085 -748 -0.9% 2020 237,133 228,357 -8,776 -3.7% 226,200 -10,932 -4.6% 230,580 -6,553 -2.8% 2021 242,991 225,335 -17,656 -7.3% 216,236 -26,756 -11.0% 235,107 -7,884 -3.2% 480,124 453,692 -26,432 -5.5% 442,436 -37,688 -7.8% 465,686 -14,437 -3.0% 2020 523,106 514,900 -8,206 -1.6% 512,363 -10,743 -2.1% 517,636 -5,470 -1.0% 2021 532,424 511,949 -20,475 -3.8% 500,856 -31,568 -5.9% 524,012 -8,411 -1.6% 1,055,529 1,026,848 -28,681 -2.7% 1,013,219 -42,311 -4.0% 1,041,648 -13,881 -1.3% 2020 561,150 546,866 -14,284 -2.5% 542,873 -18,277 -3.3% 551,222 -9,928 -1.8% 2021 593,216 553,738 -39,478 -6.7% 533,622 -59,594 -10.0% 577,508 -15,708 -2.6% 1,154,366 1,100,604 -53,762 -4.7% 1,076,495 -77,871 -6.7% 1,128,730 -25,636 -2.2% 2020 12,516 12,294 -222 -1.8% 12,222 -294 -2.3% 12,368 -148 -1.2% 2021 12,596 12,306 -290 -2.3% 12,143 -453 -3.6% 12,525 -71 -0.6% 25,112 24,600 -512 -2.0% 24,365 -747 -3.0% 24,893 -219 -0.9% 2020 34,975 34,865 -110 -0.3% 34,853 -122 -0.3% 34,876 -99 -0.3% 2021 38,500 38,169 -332 -0.9% 37,993 -507 -1.3% 38,166 -334 -0.9% 73,475 73,033 -442 -0.6% 72,846 -629 -0.9% 73,043 -433 -0.6% 2020 8,676 8,455 -221 -2.5% 8,377 -299 -3.4% 8,536 -140 -1.6% 2021 8,600 8,246 -354 -4.1% 8,029 -571 -6.6% 8,473 -127 -1.5% 17,276 16,701 -575 -3.3% 16,406 -870 -5.0% 17,009 -267 -1.5% 15,325 15,168 -156 -1.0% 15,069 -256 -1.7% 15,270 -55 -0.4% Catahoula Total Claiborne Effect of COVID ($) -1,080 Cameron Total Catahoula Revenue ($) 54,925 Caldwell Total Cameron Effect of COVID (%) 54,760 Calcasieu Total Caldwell Effect of COVID ($) 57,258 Caddo Total Calcasieu Revenue ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) 55,840 Bossier Total Caddo Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) 2021 Bienville Total Bossier Average Scenario (With COVID) 2020 Beauregard Total Bienville Revenue ($) Appendix B 2020 Note: Dollar Amounts in Thousands B.2 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Baseline (Without COVID) Scenario Parish FY Claiborne Total Concordia -437 -2.9% 14,244 Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) -955 -6.3% 14,980 -219 -1.4% -1.9% 29,313 -1,211 -4.0% 30,250 -274 -0.9% -606 -2.5% 23,569 -786 -3.2% 23,937 -418 -1.7% 2021 24,636 23,664 -972 -3.9% 23,104 -1,533 -6.2% 24,197 -440 -1.8% 48,991 47,413 -1,578 -3.2% 46,673 -2,318 -4.7% 48,133 -858 -1.8% 2020 117,824 115,140 -2,684 -2.3% 114,597 -3,227 -2.7% 115,726 -2,098 -1.8% 2021 129,056 120,294 -8,762 -6.8% 115,519 -13,537 -10.5% 121,906 -7,151 -5.5% -16,764 -6.8% 237,632 -9,248 -3.7% 246,880 235,434 -11,446 -4.6% 230,116 2020 925,822 900,553 -25,268 -2.7% 893,343 -32,479 -3.5% 908,152 -17,669 -1.9% 2021 949,517 905,035 -44,482 -4.7% 881,020 -68,496 -7.2% 934,220 -15,297 -1.6% 1,875,338 1,805,588 -69,751 -3.7% 1,774,363 -100,975 -5.4% 1,842,372 -32,967 -1.8% 2020 7,549 7,455 -94 -1.2% 7,412 -137 -1.8% 7,500 -49 -0.6% 2021 7,707 7,509 -198 -2.6% 7,385 -322 -4.2% 7,672 -35 -0.5% 15,256 14,964 -292 -1.9% 14,797 -459 -3.0% 15,172 -84 -0.6% 2020 18,784 18,370 -414 -2.2% 18,193 -591 -3.1% 18,554 -230 -1.2% 2021 20,299 19,537 -762 -3.8% 19,022 -1,277 -6.3% 20,134 -165 -0.8% 39,083 37,907 -1,176 -3.0% 37,215 -1,868 -4.8% 38,688 -395 -1.0% 2020 32,910 32,276 -633 -1.9% 32,064 -846 -2.6% 32,500 -410 -1.2% 2021 32,995 31,787 -1,208 -3.7% 31,076 -1,919 -5.8% 32,493 -503 -1.5% 65,905 64,064 -1,841 -2.8% 63,140 -2,765 -4.2% 64,992 -913 -1.4% 2020 21,595 20,964 -631 -2.9% 20,766 -830 -3.8% 21,169 -427 -2.0% 2021 22,109 21,353 -756 -3.4% 20,898 -1,211 -5.5% 21,928 -181 -0.8% 43,704 42,317 -1,388 -3.2% 41,664 -2,041 -4.7% 43,097 -608 -1.4% 2020 14,165 13,882 -283 -2.0% 13,748 -417 -2.9% 14,017 -148 -1.0% 2021 14,367 13,976 -392 -2.7% 13,657 -711 -4.9% 14,304 -64 -0.4% Franklin Total Grant 14,761 Effect of COVID (%) -594 Evangeline Total Franklin 15,199 Effect of COVID ($) 23,748 East Feliciana Total Evangeline Revenue ($) 29,930 East Carroll Total East Feliciana Effect of COVID (%) 24,355 East Baton Rouge Total East Carroll Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) 30,524 DeSoto Total East Baton Rouge Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) 2020 Concordia Total DeSoto Average Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) 2021 Appendix B Note: Dollar Amounts in Thousands B.3 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Baseline (Without COVID) Scenario Parish FY Revenue ($) Grant Total Iberia Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) -675 -2.4% 27,404 -1,128 -4.0% 28,320 -212 -0.7% -2.9% 90,915 -3,493 -3.7% 92,509 -1,899 -2.0% 2021 94,165 87,815 -6,350 -6.7% 83,959 -10,207 -10.8% 90,035 -4,131 -4.4% 188,573 179,511 -9,062 -4.8% 174,874 -13,699 -7.3% 182,544 -6,030 -3.2% 2020 135,528 133,162 -2,365 -1.7% 132,383 -3,145 -2.3% 134,018 -1,510 -1.1% 2021 142,522 135,571 -6,952 -4.9% 132,051 -10,471 -7.3% 139,799 -2,723 -1.9% 278,050 268,733 -9,317 -3.4% 264,434 -13,616 -4.9% 273,817 -4,233 -1.5% 2020 23,641 23,218 -422 -1.8% 23,107 -534 -2.3% 23,334 -306 -1.3% 2021 22,824 22,268 -556 -2.4% 21,993 -830 -3.6% 22,643 -181 -0.8% 46,464 45,486 -978 -2.1% 45,100 -1,364 -2.9% 45,977 -487 -1.0% 2020 802,339 776,678 -25,662 -3.2% 770,079 -32,260 -4.0% 783,540 -18,799 -2.3% 2021 821,639 766,982 -54,658 -6.7% 738,730 -82,910 -10.1% 800,459 -21,180 -2.6% 1,623,978 1,543,659 -80,319 -4.9% 1,508,809 -115,170 -7.1% 1,583,999 -39,979 -2.5% 2020 47,008 45,672 -1,336 -2.8% 45,294 -1,714 -3.6% 46,067 -941 -2.0% 2021 47,848 45,542 -2,307 -4.8% 44,253 -3,595 -7.5% 46,804 -1,044 -2.2% -5,309 -5.6% 92,871 -1,985 -2.1% 94,856 91,213 -3,643 -3.8% 89,547 2020 447,191 435,717 -11,474 -2.6% 432,436 -14,755 -3.3% 439,163 -8,028 -1.8% 2021 454,614 428,439 -26,176 -5.8% 413,288 -41,326 -9.1% 440,108 -14,506 -3.2% 901,805 864,155 -37,650 -4.2% 845,724 -56,081 -6.2% 879,271 -22,534 -2.5% 2020 168,893 166,044 -2,849 -1.7% 164,897 -3,997 -2.4% 167,236 -1,657 -1.0% 2021 166,204 160,071 -6,133 -3.7% 156,066 -10,138 -6.1% 163,665 -2,540 -1.5% 335,098 326,115 -8,982 -2.7% 320,963 -14,134 -4.2% 330,901 -4,197 -1.3% 2020 28,101 27,399 -702 -2.5% 27,214 -887 -3.2% 27,596 -505 -1.8% 2021 30,471 28,750 -1,721 -5.6% 27,785 -2,685 -8.8% 29,354 -1,117 -3.7% 58,572 56,149 -2,423 -4.1% 55,000 -3,572 -6.1% 56,949 -1,622 -2.8% Lafourche Total Lasalle Effect of COVID ($) -2,712 Lafayette Total Lafourche Revenue ($) 91,696 Jefferson Davis Total Lafayette Effect of COVID (%) 27,858 Jefferson Total Jefferson Davis Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) 94,408 Jackson Total Jefferson Revenue ($) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) 28,532 Iberville Total Jackson Average Scenario (With COVID) 2020 Iberia Total Iberville Appendix B Lasalle Total Note: Dollar Amounts in Thousands B.4 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Baseline (Without COVID) Scenario Parish Lincoln FY Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) -2.2% 72,651 -2,045 -2.7% 73,534 -1,163 -1.6% -3,250 -4.5% 67,961 -4,908 -6.7% 71,512 -1,356 -1.9% 147,565 142,696 -4,869 -3.3% 140,612 -6,953 -4.7% 145,046 -2,519 -1.7% 2020 138,318 134,349 -3,969 -2.9% 132,975 -5,342 -3.9% 135,787 -2,531 -1.8% 2021 143,518 136,236 -7,282 -5.1% 131,894 -11,624 -8.1% 141,424 -2,094 -1.5% 281,835 270,585 -11,251 -4.0% 264,869 -16,966 -6.0% 277,211 -4,625 -1.6% 2020 16,551 16,250 -301 -1.8% 16,153 -398 -2.4% 16,350 -200 -1.2% 2021 16,413 15,995 -419 -2.6% 15,746 -667 -4.1% 16,307 -107 -0.6% 32,964 32,244 -720 -2.2% 31,899 -1,065 -3.2% 32,657 -307 -0.9% 2020 27,373 26,966 -407 -1.5% 26,775 -598 -2.2% 27,169 -204 -0.7% 2021 27,112 26,305 -807 -3.0% 25,768 -1,344 -5.0% 26,973 -139 -0.5% 54,485 53,271 -1,214 -2.2% 52,543 -1,942 -3.6% 54,141 -343 -0.6% 2020 55,996 54,172 -1,823 -3.3% 53,684 -2,312 -4.1% 54,680 -1,315 -2.3% 2021 56,303 52,232 -4,072 -7.2% 50,180 -6,123 -10.9% 54,788 -1,515 -2.7% 112,299 106,404 -5,895 -5.2% 103,864 -8,435 -7.5% 109,469 -2,830 -2.5% 942,752 897,221 -45,531 -4.8% 889,912 -52,840 -5.6% 904,707 -38,045 -4.0% 2020 994,888 864,858 -130,030 -13.1% 807,109 -187,779 -18.9% 934,939 -59,948 -6.0% 1,937,640 1,762,079 -175,561 -9.1% 1,697,021 -240,619 -12.4% 1,839,646 -97,994 -5.1% 2020 296,330 287,938 -8,392 -2.8% 285,325 -11,006 -3.7% 290,685 -5,646 -1.9% 2021 296,373 282,673 -13,700 -4.6% 274,881 -21,492 -7.3% 292,137 -4,236 -1.4% 592,703 570,611 -22,092 -3.7% 560,206 -32,498 -5.5% 582,821 -9,882 -1.7% 2020 90,380 87,763 -2,616 -2.9% 87,327 -3,053 -3.4% 88,223 -2,157 -2.4% 2021 89,120 82,302 -6,818 -7.7% 78,805 -10,314 -11.6% 83,684 -5,436 -6.1% 179,500 170,065 -9,435 -5.3% 166,132 -13,368 -7.4% 171,907 -7,593 -4.2% 30,940 30,331 -609 -2.0% 30,046 -895 -2.9% 30,624 -316 -1.0% Ouachita Total Plaquemines Total Pointe Coupee Effect of COVID ($) -1,618 Orleans Total Plaquemines Revenue ($) 69,618 2021 Ouachita Effect of COVID (%) 73,078 Natchitoches Total Orleans Effect of COVID ($) 72,869 Morehouse Total Natchitoches Revenue ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) 74,696 Madison Total Morehouse Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) 2021 Livingston Total Madison Average Scenario (With COVID) 2020 Lincoln Total Livingston Revenue ($) Appendix B 2020 Note: Dollar Amounts in Thousands B.5 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Baseline (Without COVID) Scenario Parish FY Revenue ($) -1,396 -4.5% 28,719 Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) -2,304 -7.4% 30,665 -2,005 -3.2% 58,764 -3,198 -5.2% -4,193 -2.0% 205,291 -5,698 -2.7% 2021 213,110 206,198 -6,912 -3.2% 201,895 -11,215 -5.3% 424,099 412,994 -11,105 -2.6% 407,186 -16,913 2020 33,631 33,074 -558 -1.7% 32,938 2021 35,443 33,837 -1,605 -4.5% Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) -357 -1.2% 61,289 -673 -1.1% 208,390 -2,599 -1.2% 211,327 -1,783 -0.8% -4.0% 419,717 -4,382 -1.0% -693 -2.1% 33,223 -408 -1.2% 32,975 -2,468 -7.0% 34,380 -1,062 -3.0% -3,161 -4.6% 67,603 -1,470 -2.1% 69,074 66,911 -2,163 -3.1% 65,913 2020 25,022 24,438 -584 -2.3% 24,228 -794 -3.2% 24,659 -363 -1.4% 2021 24,521 23,663 -858 -3.5% 23,131 -1,389 -5.7% 24,310 -211 -0.9% 49,543 48,100 -1,443 -2.9% 47,360 -2,183 -4.4% 48,969 -574 -1.2% 2020 41,867 41,084 -783 -1.9% 40,800 -1,067 -2.5% 41,388 -479 -1.1% 2021 45,825 44,095 -1,730 -3.8% 43,098 -2,727 -6.0% 45,280 -546 -1.2% 87,692 85,179 -2,514 -2.9% 83,898 -3,794 -4.3% 86,668 -1,025 -1.2% 2020 87,661 85,329 -2,332 -2.7% 84,643 -3,018 -3.4% 86,035 -1,626 -1.9% 2021 93,069 89,033 -4,036 -4.3% 86,772 -6,296 -6.8% 91,690 -1,378 -1.5% 180,729 174,362 -6,368 -3.5% 171,416 -9,314 -5.2% 177,725 -3,004 -1.7% 2020 252,942 249,092 -3,850 -1.5% 247,846 -5,096 -2.0% 250,444 -2,498 -1.0% 2021 272,600 261,249 -11,351 -4.2% 255,557 -17,043 -6.3% 268,410 -4,190 -1.5% 525,542 510,340 -15,202 -2.9% 503,403 -22,140 -4.2% 518,855 -6,688 -1.3% 2020 8,904 8,695 -209 -2.3% 8,614 -290 -3.3% 8,777 -127 -1.4% 2021 8,936 8,601 -335 -3.7% 8,384 -552 -6.2% 8,843 -93 -1.0% 17,840 17,296 -544 -3.0% 16,997 -842 -4.7% 17,620 -219 -1.2% 2020 102,167 100,799 -1,368 -1.3% 100,365 -1,802 -1.8% 101,281 -886 -0.9% 2021 114,946 110,803 -4,143 -3.6% 108,749 -6,197 -5.4% 113,425 -1,521 -1.3% St. Helena Total St. James 29,627 Effect of COVID ($) 59,958 St. Charles Total St. Helena Revenue ($) 206,796 St. Bernard Total St. Charles Effect of COVID (%) 61,963 Sabine Total St. Bernard Effect of COVID ($) 210,989 Richland Total Sabine Revenue ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) 2020 Red River Total Richland Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) 31,022 Rapides Total Red River Average Scenario (With COVID) 2021 Pointe Coupee Total Rapides Appendix B Note: Dollar Amounts in Thousands B.6 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Baseline (Without COVID) Scenario Parish St. James Total St. John The Baptist Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) 217,112 211,602 -5,510 -2.5% 209,113 -7,999 -3.7% 214,706 -2,407 -1.1% 2020 98,442 96,183 -2,259 -2.3% 95,533 -2,909 -3.0% 96,888 -1,554 -1.6% 2021 98,771 93,054 -5,717 -5.8% 90,176 -8,595 -8.7% 96,453 -2,318 -2.3% 197,213 189,237 -7,977 -4.0% 185,710 -11,504 -5.8% 193,342 -3,872 -2.0% 2020 83,214 80,786 -2,428 -2.9% 79,867 -3,347 -4.0% 81,731 -1,483 -1.8% 2021 83,963 79,946 -4,017 -4.8% 77,354 -6,609 -7.9% 82,912 -1,051 -1.3% 167,176 160,731 -6,445 -3.9% 157,221 -9,955 -6.0% 164,643 -2,533 -1.5% 2020 67,036 65,767 -1,269 -1.9% 65,255 -1,781 -2.7% 66,305 -730 -1.1% 2021 68,681 65,688 -2,993 -4.4% 63,843 -4,839 -7.0% 67,645 -1,036 -1.5% 131,455 -4,262 -3.1% 129,098 -6,620 -4.9% 133,950 -1,767 -1.3% 75,250 72,823 -2,428 -3.2% 72,212 -3,038 -4.0% 73,461 -1,789 -2.4% 2021 75,209 68,905 -6,304 -8.4% 65,354 -9,855 -13.1% 70,855 -4,354 -5.8% 150,459 141,727 -8,732 -5.8% 137,566 -12,893 -8.6% 144,317 -6,143 -4.1% 2020 453,207 439,167 -14,041 -3.1% 435,127 -18,080 -4.0% 443,350 -9,857 -2.2% 2021 466,300 435,701 -30,599 -6.6% 419,017 -47,283 -10.1% 454,382 -11,918 -2.6% -65,363 -7.1% 897,732 -21,775 -2.4% 919,507 874,868 -44,640 -4.9% 854,144 2020 135,220 131,497 -3,723 -2.8% 130,051 -5,169 -3.8% 133,013 -2,207 -1.6% 2021 138,937 131,844 -7,094 -5.1% 127,272 -11,666 -8.4% 137,180 -1,757 -1.3% 274,157 263,341 -10,816 -3.9% 257,323 -16,834 -6.1% 270,193 -3,964 -1.4% 2020 8,418 8,151 -267 -3.2% 8,091 -326 -3.9% 8,212 -206 -2.4% 2021 8,543 8,329 -214 -2.5% 8,218 -325 -3.8% 8,446 -97 -1.1% 16,960 16,480 -481 -2.8% 16,309 -651 -3.8% 16,658 -303 -1.8% 2020 165,802 160,170 -5,633 -3.4% 158,644 -7,158 -4.3% 161,748 -4,054 -2.4% 2021 167,590 155,762 -11,828 -7.1% 149,051 -18,539 -11.1% 160,802 -6,788 -4.1% Tangipahoa Total Tensas Tensas Total Terrebonne Effect of COVID (%) 135,717 St. Tammany Total Tangipahoa Effect of COVID ($) 2020 St. Mary Total St. Tammany Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) St. Martin Total St. Mary Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID ($) St. Landry Total St. Martin Average Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) FY St. John The Baptist Total St. Landry Appendix B Note: Dollar Amounts in Thousands B.7 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Baseline (Without COVID) Scenario Parish FY Terrebonne Total Union Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) -5.2% 307,695 -25,698 -7.7% 322,550 -10,842 -3.3% -438 -2.0% 21,497 -611 -2.8% 21,850 -258 -1.2% 2021 22,129 21,382 -747 -3.4% 20,917 -1,212 -5.5% 21,964 -164 -0.7% 44,237 43,052 -1,185 -2.7% 42,414 -1,823 -4.1% 43,815 -422 -1.0% 2020 56,262 54,902 -1,360 -2.4% 54,457 -1,805 -3.2% 55,365 -896 -1.6% 2021 56,212 53,304 -2,908 -5.2% 51,529 -4,683 -8.3% 54,650 -1,563 -2.8% 112,474 108,206 -4,268 -3.8% 105,986 -6,488 -5.8% 110,015 -2,459 -2.2% 2020 47,606 46,359 -1,247 -2.6% 46,065 -1,541 -3.2% 46,675 -931 -2.0% 2021 47,760 45,504 -2,256 -4.7% 44,452 -3,308 -6.9% 46,820 -940 -2.0% 95,366 91,863 -3,502 -3.7% 90,517 -4,848 -5.1% 93,494 -1,871 -2.0% 2020 48,589 47,822 -767 -1.6% 47,377 -1,211 -2.5% 48,284 -305 -0.6% 2021 49,477 47,830 -1,648 -3.3% 46,596 -2,881 -5.8% 49,361 -116 -0.2% 98,066 95,651 -2,415 -2.5% 93,974 -4,092 -4.2% 97,645 -421 -0.4% 2020 52,252 50,812 -1,440 -2.8% 50,368 -1,884 -3.6% 51,276 -976 -1.9% 2021 52,605 49,996 -2,610 -5.0% 48,462 -4,144 -7.9% 51,427 -1,179 -2.2% -5.7% 102,703 -2,155 -2.1% 104,858 100,808 -4,050 -3.9% 98,830 -6,028 2020 66,888 65,465 -1,423 -2.1% 65,106 -1,782 -2.7% 65,852 -1,036 -1.5% 2021 68,380 65,281 -3,100 -4.5% 63,810 -4,570 -6.7% 67,118 -1,262 -1.8% 135,268 130,745 -4,523 -3.3% 128,916 -6,352 -4.7% 132,970 -2,298 -1.7% 2020 10,507 10,217 -290 -2.8% 10,123 -384 -3.7% 10,315 -192 -1.8% 2021 10,568 10,172 -396 -3.7% 9,948 -620 -5.9% 10,472 -96 -0.9% 21,075 20,389 -686 -3.3% 20,072 -1,004 -4.8% 20,786 -289 -1.4% 2020 35,933 35,502 -431 -1.2% 35,370 -563 -1.6% 35,644 -288 -0.8% 2021 39,687 38,654 -1,033 -2.6% 38,111 -1,576 -4.0% 39,326 -360 -0.9% 75,619 74,155 -1,464 -1.9% 73,481 -2,139 -2.8% 74,971 -649 -0.9% West Carroll Total West Feliciana Revenue ($) -17,461 West Baton Rouge Total West Carroll Effect of COVID (%) 21,670 Webster Total West Baton Rouge Effect of COVID ($) 315,932 Washington Total Webster Revenue ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) 22,108 Vernon Total Washington Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) 333,393 Vermilion Total Vernon Average Scenario (With COVID) 2020 Union Total Vermilion Appendix B West Feliciana Total Note: Dollar Amounts in Thousands B.8 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Baseline (Without COVID) Scenario Parish Winn FY Revenue ($) Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) 2020 18,371 17,957 -414 -2.3% 17,831 -540 -2.9% 18,092 -279 -1.5% 2021 19,059 18,192 -867 -4.5% 17,734 -1,325 -7.0% 18,704 -355 -1.9% 37,430 36,149 -1,281 -3.4% 35,564 -1,866 -5.0% 36,796 -634 -1.7% 17,750,393 16,962,942 -787,451 -4.4% 16,611,721 -1,138,672 -6.4% 17,345,709 -404,684 -2.3% Winn Total Grand Total Appendix B Source: Prepared by legislative auditor’s staff using data sources summarized in Appendix A. Note: Dollar Amounts in Thousands B.9 APPENDIX C: ESTIMATED EFFECTS SOCIAL DISTANCING AND ENERGY MARKET WEAKNESS FROM COVID-19 ON LOCAL GOVERNMENT SALES TAX, AD VALOREM TAX, AND MINERAL-RELATED REVENUES, BY PARISH AND TYPE OF ENTITY (in alphabetical order) (DOLLAR AMOUNTS IN THOUSANDS) Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 15,596 15,238 -358 -2.3% 15,094 -502 -3.2% 15,390 -206 -1.3% 2021 15,977 15,171 -806 -5.0% 14,660 -1,317 -8.2% 15,695 -282 -1.8% 31,573 30,409 -1,164 -3.7% 29,754 -1,819 -5.8% 31,086 -487 -1.5% 2020 18,820 18,174 -645 -3.4% 17,966 -853 -4.5% 18,390 -430 -2.3% 2021 17,713 17,089 -624 -3.5% 16,716 -997 -5.6% 17,838 125 0.7% 36,532 35,264 -1,269 -3.5% 34,682 -1,850 -5.1% 36,228 -305 -0.8% 2020 24,665 24,133 -532 -2.2% 23,947 -717 -2.9% 24,326 -338 -1.4% 2021 25,194 24,213 -981 -3.9% 23,629 -1,566 -6.2% 24,868 -326 -1.3% 49,859 48,345 -1,513 -3.0% 47,576 -2,283 -4.6% 49,194 -664 -1.3% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Acadia Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.1 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 7,232 7,060 -172 -2.4% 7,001 -231 -3.2% 7,122 -110 -1.5% 2021 7,391 7,078 -313 -4.2% 6,892 -499 -6.8% 7,287 -104 -1.4% 14,623 14,138 -485 -3.3% 13,892 -730 -5.0% 14,410 -213 -1.5% 132,587 128,155 -4,431 -3.3% 125,904 -6,682 -5.0% 130,917 -1,670 -1.3% 2020 3,882 3,827 -55 -1.4% 3,795 -87 -2.2% 3,862 -21 -0.5% 2021 4,069 3,927 -142 -3.5% 3,826 -243 -6.0% 4,049 -20 -0.5% 7,951 7,754 -197 -2.5% 7,621 -330 -4.2% 7,910 -41 -0.5% 2020 7,483 7,366 -117 -1.6% 7,329 -153 -2.0% 7,404 -79 -1.0% 2021 7,888 7,629 -259 -3.3% 7,472 -416 -5.3% 7,737 -151 -1.9% 15,371 14,996 -375 -2.4% 14,801 -569 -3.7% 15,141 -230 -1.5% 2020 14,015 13,718 -297 -2.1% 13,586 -429 -3.1% 13,855 -160 -1.1% 2021 14,714 14,138 -576 -3.9% 13,765 -949 -6.4% 14,617 -97 -0.7% 28,729 27,856 -873 -3.0% 27,351 -1,378 -4.8% 28,472 -257 -0.9% 2020 4,859 4,760 -99 -2.0% 4,717 -142 -2.9% 4,806 -53 -1.1% 2021 5,106 4,915 -191 -3.8% 4,791 -316 -6.2% 5,074 -32 -0.6% 9,965 9,675 -290 -2.9% 9,507 -458 -4.6% 9,880 -85 -0.9% 62,016 60,281 -1,735 -2.8% 59,280 -2,736 -4.4% 61,404 -612 -1.0% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Sheriff Sheriff Total Acadia Total Allen Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Allen Total Ascension Municipalities Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.2 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 20,783 20,132 -651 -3.1% 19,900 -883 -4.2% 20,381 -402 -1.9% 2021 20,721 19,260 -1,460 -7.0% 18,442 -2,279 -11.0% 20,269 -451 -2.2% 41,504 39,392 -2,111 -5.1% 38,342 -3,162 -7.6% 40,651 -853 -2.1% 2020 96,603 94,199 -2,404 -2.5% 93,408 -3,195 -3.3% 95,038 -1,565 -1.6% 2021 98,639 93,842 -4,797 -4.9% 91,238 -7,401 -7.5% 97,142 -1,497 -1.5% 195,242 188,041 -7,201 -3.7% 184,647 -10,596 -5.4% 192,180 -3,062 -1.6% 2020 155,575 152,746 -2,829 -1.8% 151,807 -3,768 -2.4% 153,744 -1,831 -1.2% 2021 160,590 154,817 -5,773 -3.6% 151,684 -8,906 -5.5% 158,779 -1,811 -1.1% 316,165 307,563 -8,602 -2.7% 303,491 -12,674 -4.0% 312,523 -3,642 -1.2% 2020 34,143 33,567 -576 -1.7% 33,381 -762 -2.2% 33,764 -379 -1.1% 2021 35,399 34,268 -1,131 -3.2% 33,661 -1,738 -4.9% 35,043 -356 -1.0% 69,542 67,835 -1,707 -2.5% 67,042 -2,500 -3.6% 68,807 -735 -1.1% 622,453 602,831 -19,622 -3.2% 593,521 -28,932 -4.6% 614,161 -8,292 -1.3% 2020 164 162 -2 -1.5% 160 -4 -2.3% 163 -1 -0.6% 2021 170 164 -6 -3.5% 160 -10 -6.0% 169 -1 -0.5% 334 326 -8 -2.5% 320 -14 -4.2% 332 -2 -0.6% 2020 9,709 9,482 -227 -2.3% 9,402 -307 -3.2% 9,566 -143 -1.5% 2021 10,142 9,687 -455 -4.5% 9,411 -731 -7.2% 9,941 -201 -2.0% 19,851 19,169 -682 -3.4% 18,813 -1,038 -5.2% 19,507 -344 -1.7% Municipalities Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Ascension Total Assumption Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.3 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 14,879 14,603 -276 -1.9% 14,490 -390 -2.6% 14,721 -159 -1.1% 2021 15,486 14,998 -488 -3.2% 14,696 -790 -5.1% 15,393 -93 -0.6% 30,365 29,601 -765 -2.5% 29,186 -1,180 -3.9% 30,114 -252 -0.8% 2020 5,834 5,834 0 0.0% 5,834 0 0.0% 5,834 0 0.0% 2021 6,142 6,134 -8 -0.1% 6,131 -11 -0.2% 6,137 -5 -0.1% Sheriff Total 11,976 11,967 -8 -0.1% 11,965 -11 -0.1% 11,971 -5 0.0% Assumption Total 62,526 61,063 -1,463 -2.3% 60,283 -2,243 -3.6% 61,924 -602 -1.0% 2020 6,814 6,653 -162 -2.4% 6,589 -226 -3.3% 6,720 -94 -1.4% 2021 6,890 6,629 -261 -3.8% 6,456 -434 -6.3% 6,837 -54 -0.8% 13,705 13,282 -423 -3.1% 13,045 -660 -4.8% 13,557 -148 -1.1% 2020 8,173 7,958 -214 -2.6% 7,892 -281 -3.4% 8,028 -145 -1.8% 2021 8,319 8,000 -319 -3.8% 7,812 -508 -6.1% 8,199 -120 -1.4% 16,492 15,959 -533 -3.2% 15,703 -789 -4.8% 16,227 -265 -1.6% 2020 10,412 10,097 -315 -3.0% 9,992 -420 -4.0% 10,207 -205 -2.0% 2021 10,537 10,109 -428 -4.1% 9,853 -684 -6.5% 10,440 -97 -0.9% 20,950 20,207 -743 -3.5% 19,845 -1,104 -5.3% 20,647 -303 -1.4% 2020 3,319 3,224 -95 -2.9% 3,193 -126 -3.8% 3,257 -62 -1.9% 2021 3,360 3,232 -128 -3.8% 3,155 -205 -6.1% 3,331 -29 -0.9% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Avoyelles Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.4 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Revenue ($) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Sheriff Total 6,679 6,456 -223 -3.3% 6,347 -331 -5.0% 6,587 -91 -1.4% Avoyelles Total 57,825 55,903 -1,922 -3.3% 54,941 -2,884 -5.0% 57,018 -807 -1.4% 7,358 7,190 -168 -2.3% 7,113 -245 -3.3% 7,272 -86 -1.2% Beauregard Municipalities 2020 2021 7,327 6,919 -409 -5.6% 6,664 -663 -9.1% 7,227 -101 -1.4% 14,686 14,109 -577 -3.9% 13,777 -908 -6.2% 14,499 -187 -1.3% 2020 16,854 16,466 -388 -2.3% 16,332 -522 -3.1% 16,605 -249 -1.5% 2021 17,218 16,303 -915 -5.3% 15,786 -1,431 -8.3% 16,710 -507 -2.9% 34,072 32,769 -1,303 -3.8% 32,118 -1,954 -5.7% 33,316 -756 -2.2% 2020 24,428 24,010 -419 -1.7% 23,852 -576 -2.4% 24,175 -254 -1.0% 2021 25,235 24,429 -806 -3.2% 23,961 -1,274 -5.0% 25,026 -208 -0.8% 49,663 48,439 -1,224 -2.5% 47,813 -1,850 -3.7% 49,201 -462 -0.9% 7,200 7,094 -106 -1.5% 7,055 -145 -2.0% 7,136 -64 -0.9% Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff 2020 7,478 7,275 -204 -2.7% 7,157 -321 -4.3% 7,425 -53 -0.7% Sheriff Total 2021 14,678 14,369 -309 -2.1% 14,211 -466 -3.2% 14,561 -117 -0.8% Beauregard Total 113,098 109,685 -3,413 -3.0% 107,920 -5,178 -4.6% 111,576 -1,522 -1.3% 2020 3,379 3,292 -87 -2.6% 3,263 -115 -3.4% 3,323 -56 -1.6% 2021 3,564 3,312 -251 -7.1% 3,164 -400 -11.2% 3,424 -139 -3.9% 6,942 6,604 -338 -4.9% 6,427 -515 -7.4% 6,748 -195 -2.8% Bienville Municipalities Municipalities Total Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.5 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 6,814 6,727 -87 -1.3% 6,702 -111 -1.6% 6,752 -61 -0.9% 2021 6,925 6,711 -213 -3.1% 6,594 -331 -4.8% 6,799 -125 -1.8% 13,738 13,438 -300 -2.2% 13,296 -443 -3.2% 13,552 -187 -1.4% 2020 23,895 23,732 -164 -0.7% 23,681 -214 -0.9% 23,785 -110 -0.5% 2021 24,001 23,553 -448 -1.9% 23,316 -685 -2.9% 23,758 -243 -1.0% 47,897 47,284 -612 -1.3% 46,997 -900 -1.9% 47,543 -353 -0.7% 2020 6,155 6,155 0 0.0% 6,155 0 0.0% 6,155 0 0.0% 2021 6,100 6,083 -18 -0.3% 6,079 -21 -0.3% 6,088 -13 -0.2% Sheriff Total 12,255 12,238 -18 -0.1% 12,234 -21 -0.2% 12,242 -13 -0.1% Bienville Total 80,833 79,564 -1,268 -1.6% 78,954 -1,879 -2.3% 80,085 -748 -0.9% 2020 68,504 65,229 -3,274 -4.8% 64,417 -4,086 -6.0% 66,070 -2,433 -3.6% 2021 70,474 63,575 -6,900 -9.8% 59,972 -10,502 -14.9% 67,368 -3,106 -4.4% 138,978 128,804 -10,174 -7.3% 124,389 -14,589 -10.5% 133,438 -5,540 -4.0% 2020 37,455 35,897 -1,557 -4.2% 35,524 -1,930 -5.2% 36,278 -1,176 -3.1% 2021 38,276 35,435 -2,842 -7.4% 33,996 -4,280 -11.2% 37,003 -1,274 -3.3% 75,731 71,332 -4,399 -5.8% 69,521 -6,210 -8.2% 73,281 -2,450 -3.2% 2020 105,413 102,201 -3,211 -3.0% 101,410 -4,002 -3.8% 103,016 -2,397 -2.3% 2021 107,886 101,445 -6,442 -6.0% 98,141 -9,746 -9.0% 105,035 -2,851 -2.6% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Bossier Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.6 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 213,299 203,646 -9,653 -4.5% 199,551 -13,748 -6.4% 208,051 -5,248 -2.5% 2020 25,762 25,029 -733 -2.8% 24,849 -914 -3.5% 25,215 -547 -2.1% 2021 26,354 24,881 -1,473 -5.6% 24,126 -2,228 -8.5% 25,701 -653 -2.5% School Boards Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Sheriff Sheriff Total 52,116 49,910 -2,206 -4.2% 48,975 -3,141 -6.0% 50,916 -1,200 -2.3% 480,124 453,692 -26,432 -5.5% 442,436 -37,688 -7.8% 465,686 -14,437 -3.0% 2020 219,168 214,782 -4,386 -2.0% 213,391 -5,777 -2.6% 216,292 -2,876 -1.3% 2021 223,642 212,255 -11,387 -5.1% 205,994 -17,648 -7.9% 218,952 -4,689 -2.1% 442,810 427,037 -15,773 -3.6% 419,385 -23,425 -5.3% 435,244 -7,565 -1.7% 62,406 61,762 -644 -1.0% 61,585 -821 -1.3% 61,948 -458 -0.7% Bossier Total Caddo Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. 2020 2021 63,288 61,938 -1,350 -2.1% 61,243 -2,044 -3.2% 62,704 -584 -0.9% 125,694 123,699 -1,994 -1.6% 122,828 -2,866 -2.3% 124,652 -1,042 -0.8% 2020 215,391 212,497 -2,894 -1.3% 211,598 -3,793 -1.8% 213,467 -1,924 -0.9% 2021 219,021 211,688 -7,334 -3.3% 207,733 -11,288 -5.2% 216,025 -2,996 -1.4% 434,412 424,185 -10,227 -2.4% 419,331 -15,081 -3.5% 429,492 -4,920 -1.1% 2020 26,141 25,859 -282 -1.1% 25,789 -352 -1.3% 25,929 -212 -0.8% 2021 26,473 26,069 -404 -1.5% 25,886 -587 -2.2% 26,331 -142 -0.5% 52,614 51,927 -686 -1.3% 51,675 -939 -1.8% 52,260 -354 -0.7% 1,055,529 1,026,848 -28,681 -2.7% 1,013,219 -42,311 -4.0% 1,041,648 -13,881 -1.3% Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Caddo Total Calcasieu Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.7 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 112,842 109,396 -3,445 -3.1% 108,413 -4,429 -3.9% 110,473 -2,369 -2.1% 2021 119,300 109,574 -9,726 -8.2% 104,610 -14,690 -12.3% 115,487 -3,813 -3.2% 232,142 218,970 -13,171 -5.7% 213,023 -19,119 -8.2% 225,959 -6,182 -2.7% 2020 134,153 131,003 -3,150 -2.3% 130,195 -3,958 -3.0% 131,872 -2,281 -1.7% 2021 141,789 133,950 -7,839 -5.5% 129,978 -11,811 -8.3% 138,508 -3,281 -2.3% 275,942 264,953 -10,989 -4.0% 260,172 -15,770 -5.7% 270,380 -5,562 -2.0% 2020 235,798 230,127 -5,672 -2.4% 228,498 -7,300 -3.1% 231,912 -3,886 -1.6% 2021 249,288 232,970 -16,318 -6.5% 224,635 -24,653 -9.9% 242,866 -6,422 -2.6% 485,086 463,096 -21,990 -4.5% 453,133 -31,953 -6.6% 474,778 -10,308 -2.1% 2020 78,357 76,340 -2,017 -2.6% 75,768 -2,589 -3.3% 76,964 -1,393 -1.8% 2021 82,839 77,244 -5,595 -6.8% 74,399 -8,440 -10.2% 80,647 -2,192 -2.6% Sheriff Total 161,196 153,584 -7,612 -4.7% 150,167 -11,029 -6.8% 157,611 -3,584 -2.2% Calcasieu Total 1,154,366 1,100,604 -53,762 -4.7% 1,076,495 -77,871 -6.7% 1,128,730 -25,636 -2.2% 2020 521 516 -4 -0.9% 513 -8 -1.5% 520 -1 -0.2% 2021 521 508 -13 -2.5% 498 -23 -4.5% 519 -2 -0.4% 1,042 1,024 -18 -1.7% 1,011 -31 -3.0% 1,039 -3 -0.3% 2020 4,138 4,014 -124 -3.0% 3,977 -161 -3.9% 4,051 -87 -2.1% 2021 4,132 3,986 -146 -3.5% 3,909 -223 -5.4% 4,096 -36 -0.9% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Caldwell Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.8 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 8,270 8,000 -270 -3.3% 7,886 -384 -4.6% 8,147 -123 -1.5% 2020 6,004 5,910 -94 -1.6% 5,879 -126 -2.1% 5,943 -61 -1.0% 2021 6,060 5,930 -129 -2.1% 5,855 -204 -3.4% 6,029 -31 -0.5% 12,064 11,841 -223 -1.8% 11,734 -330 -2.7% 11,972 -92 -0.8% 2020 1,853 1,853 0 0.0% 1,853 0 0.0% 1,853 0 0.0% 2021 1,883 1,881 -2 -0.1% 1,881 -3 -0.1% 1,882 -1 -0.1% Par. Gov. Auth. Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total 3,736 3,735 -2 -0.1% 3,734 -3 -0.1% 3,735 -1 0.0% Caldwell Total 25,112 24,600 -512 -2.0% 24,365 -747 -3.0% 24,893 -219 -0.9% 2020 12,145 12,035 -110 -0.9% 12,024 -122 -1.0% 12,046 -99 -0.8% 2021 13,253 12,957 -295 -2.2% 12,794 -458 -3.5% 12,939 -314 -2.4% 25,398 24,992 -406 -1.6% 24,818 -580 -2.3% 24,985 -412 -1.6% 2020 14,946 14,946 0 0.0% 14,946 0 0.0% 14,946 0 0.0% 2021 16,529 16,506 -24 -0.1% 16,497 -32 -0.2% 16,516 -13 -0.1% 31,476 31,452 -24 -0.1% 31,444 -32 -0.1% 31,462 -13 0.0% 7,883 7,883 0 0.0% 7,883 0 0.0% 7,883 0 0.0% Cameron Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff 2020 8,718 8,706 -13 -0.1% 8,702 -17 -0.2% 8,711 -7 -0.1% Sheriff Total 2021 16,602 16,589 -13 -0.1% 16,585 -17 -0.1% 16,595 -7 0.0% Cameron Total 73,475 73,033 -442 -0.6% 72,846 -629 -0.9% 73,043 -433 -0.6% Catahoula Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.9 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 585 582 -3 -0.4% 579 -6 -1.0% 585 1 0.1% 2021 577 566 -12 -2.1% 555 -22 -3.8% 576 -1 -0.2% 1,162 1,148 -14 -1.2% 1,134 -28 -2.4% 1,162 0 0.0% 2020 2,709 2,621 -88 -3.3% 2,595 -114 -4.2% 2,647 -62 -2.3% 2021 2,700 2,544 -156 -5.8% 2,453 -247 -9.1% 2,610 -90 -3.3% 5,409 5,165 -244 -4.5% 5,048 -361 -6.7% 5,257 -152 -2.8% 2020 3,409 3,314 -96 -2.8% 3,277 -132 -3.9% 3,351 -58 -1.7% 2021 3,363 3,225 -137 -4.1% 3,140 -223 -6.6% 3,337 -26 -0.8% 6,772 6,539 -233 -3.4% 6,417 -355 -5.2% 6,688 -84 -1.2% 2020 1,973 1,939 -34 -1.7% 1,926 -47 -2.4% 1,952 -21 -1.1% 2021 1,960 1,911 -49 -2.5% 1,880 -80 -4.1% 1,950 -9 -0.5% Sheriff Total 3,933 3,850 -83 -2.1% 3,806 -126 -3.2% 3,903 -30 -0.8% Catahoula Total 17,276 16,701 -575 -3.3% 16,406 -870 -5.0% 17,009 -267 -1.5% 2020 2,225 2,186 -39 -1.7% 2,156 -69 -3.1% 2,217 -8 -0.3% 2021 2,206 2,115 -91 -4.1% 2,028 -178 -8.1% 2,189 -17 -0.8% 4,430 4,301 -129 -2.9% 4,183 -247 -5.6% 4,406 -24 -0.5% 2020 4,873 4,843 -29 -0.6% 4,828 -44 -0.9% 4,858 -15 -0.3% 2021 4,877 4,697 -180 -3.7% 4,410 -467 -9.6% 4,701 -176 -3.6% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Claiborne Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.10 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 9,749 9,540 -210 -2.1% 9,239 -511 -5.2% 9,559 -191 -2.0% 2020 6,736 6,647 -88 -1.3% 6,593 -143 -2.1% 6,703 -33 -0.5% 2021 6,650 6,487 -164 -2.5% 6,344 -306 -4.6% 6,626 -24 -0.4% 13,386 13,134 -252 -1.9% 12,937 -449 -3.4% 13,329 -57 -0.4% 2020 1,492 1,492 0 0.0% 1,492 0 0.0% 1,492 0 0.0% 2021 1,466 1,463 -3 -0.2% 1,462 -4 -0.3% 1,464 -3 -0.2% Par. Gov. Auth. Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Claiborne Total 2,958 2,955 -3 -0.1% 2,954 -4 -0.1% 2,955 -3 -0.1% 30,524 29,930 -594 -1.9% 29,313 -1,211 -4.0% 30,250 -274 -0.9% 5,648 5,498 -150 -2.7% 5,445 -203 -3.6% 5,554 -94 -1.7% Concordia Municipalities 2020 2021 Municipalities Total 5,767 5,504 -262 -4.5% 5,341 -426 -7.4% 5,671 -95 -1.7% 11,414 11,002 -412 -3.6% 10,786 -629 -5.5% 11,225 -189 -1.7% 5,112 4,895 -217 -4.2% 4,842 -270 -5.3% 4,949 -163 -3.2% Par. Gov. Auth. 2020 2021 5,189 4,833 -356 -6.9% 4,638 -551 -10.6% 4,966 -223 -4.3% 10,301 9,727 -573 -5.6% 9,480 -821 -8.0% 9,915 -385 -3.7% 2020 10,851 10,612 -239 -2.2% 10,538 -313 -2.9% 10,690 -161 -1.5% 2021 10,955 10,602 -352 -3.2% 10,400 -555 -5.1% 10,833 -121 -1.1% 21,806 21,214 -591 -2.7% 20,938 -868 -4.0% 21,523 -282 -1.3% 2,744 2,744 0 0.0% 2,744 0 0.0% 2,744 0 0.0% Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff 2020 Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.11 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2,726 2,725 -1 0.0% 2,725 -2 -0.1% 2,725 -1 0.0% Sheriff Total 5,470 5,469 -1 0.0% 5,469 -2 0.0% 5,470 -1 0.0% Concordia Total 48,991 47,413 -1,578 -3.2% 46,673 -2,318 -4.7% 48,133 -858 -1.8% 2020 3,883 3,715 -168 -4.3% 3,681 -203 -5.2% 3,753 -131 -3.4% 2021 4,559 4,031 -528 -11.6% 3,735 -824 -18.1% 4,132 -426 -9.4% 8,442 7,746 -696 -8.2% 7,416 -1,027 -12.2% 7,885 -557 -6.6% 2020 23,793 23,215 -578 -2.4% 23,104 -689 -2.9% 23,334 -459 -1.9% 2021 25,886 24,106 -1,780 -6.9% 23,141 -2,746 -10.6% 24,408 -1,478 -5.7% 49,679 47,321 -2,358 -4.7% 46,244 -3,435 -6.9% 47,742 -1,938 -3.9% 2020 74,655 73,039 -1,616 -2.2% 72,708 -1,947 -2.6% 73,398 -1,257 -1.7% 2021 81,707 76,328 -5,379 -6.6% 73,398 -8,308 -10.2% 77,335 -4,372 -5.4% 156,362 149,367 -6,995 -4.5% 146,106 -10,255 -6.6% 150,733 -5,629 -3.6% 2020 15,492 15,170 -322 -2.1% 15,104 -388 -2.5% 15,242 -250 -1.6% 2021 16,904 15,829 -1,075 -6.4% 15,245 -1,659 -9.8% 16,031 -874 -5.2% 32,397 31,000 -1,397 -4.3% 30,349 -2,047 -6.3% 31,272 -1,124 -3.5% 246,880 235,434 -11,446 -4.6% 230,116 -16,764 -6.8% 237,632 -9,248 -3.7% 2020 23,885 22,809 -1,076 -4.5% 22,453 -1,433 -6.0% 23,181 -704 -2.9% 2021 24,328 22,396 -1,932 -7.9% 21,280 -3,048 -12.5% 23,783 -545 -2.2% 2021 Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) DeSoto Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total DeSoto Total East Baton Rouge Municipalities Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.12 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 48,213 45,205 -3,008 -6.2% 43,732 -4,481 -9.3% 46,964 -1,250 -2.6% 2020 425,325 412,115 -13,210 -3.1% 408,169 -17,156 -4.0% 416,284 -9,041 -2.1% 2021 435,236 411,069 -24,167 -5.6% 397,699 -37,537 -8.6% 427,131 -8,105 -1.9% 860,561 823,184 -37,377 -4.3% 805,868 -54,693 -6.4% 843,414 -17,146 -2.0% 2020 408,196 397,214 -10,982 -2.7% 394,306 -13,890 -3.4% 400,272 -7,924 -1.9% 2021 419,076 400,748 -18,327 -4.4% 391,239 -27,837 -6.6% 412,461 -6,615 -1.6% 827,271 797,962 -29,309 -3.5% 785,545 -41,727 -5.0% 812,733 -14,538 -1.8% 2020 68,416 68,416 0 0.0% 68,416 0 0.0% 68,416 0 0.0% 2021 70,877 70,822 -56 -0.1% 70,803 -75 -0.1% 70,845 -32 0.0% Municipalities Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total East Baton Rouge Total 139,293 139,237 -56 0.0% 139,219 -75 -0.1% 139,261 -32 0.0% 1,875,338 1,805,588 -69,751 -3.7% 1,774,363 -100,975 -5.4% 1,842,372 -32,967 -1.8% 672 659 -13 -2.0% 653 -19 -2.8% 665 -7 -1.1% East Carroll Municipalities 2020 2021 681 654 -26 -3.9% 638 -43 -6.3% 676 -5 -0.7% 1,353 1,313 -40 -2.9% 1,291 -62 -4.6% 1,341 -12 -0.9% 2020 3,205 3,189 -16 -0.5% 3,182 -23 -0.7% 3,196 -8 -0.3% 2021 3,305 3,271 -34 -1.0% 3,250 -55 -1.7% 3,298 -7 -0.2% 6,510 6,460 -50 -0.8% 6,432 -78 -1.2% 6,495 -15 -0.2% 2,475 2,427 -49 -2.0% 2,404 -72 -2.9% 2,450 -25 -1.0% Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards 2020 Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.13 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2,501 2,398 -103 -4.1% 2,333 -168 -6.7% 2,484 -18 -0.7% 4,977 4,825 -152 -3.0% 4,737 -240 -4.8% 4,934 -43 -0.9% 2020 1,197 1,180 -16 -1.4% 1,173 -24 -2.0% 1,188 -8 -0.7% 2021 1,220 1,186 -35 -2.8% 1,164 -56 -4.6% 1,214 -6 -0.5% Sheriff Total 2,417 2,366 -51 -2.1% 2,337 -80 -3.3% 2,402 -14 -0.6% East Carroll Total 15,256 14,964 -292 -1.9% 14,797 -459 -3.0% 15,172 -84 -0.6% 2020 3,863 3,844 -20 -0.5% 3,817 -47 -1.2% 3,874 10 0.3% 2021 4,193 4,088 -105 -2.5% 3,991 -202 -4.8% 4,188 -5 -0.1% 8,056 7,931 -125 -1.6% 7,808 -248 -3.1% 8,062 6 0.1% 2020 6,338 6,096 -242 -3.8% 6,011 -327 -5.2% 6,183 -155 -2.4% 2021 6,825 6,430 -394 -5.8% 6,187 -638 -9.3% 6,704 -121 -1.8% 13,163 12,527 -636 -4.8% 12,198 -965 -7.3% 12,887 -276 -2.1% 2020 7,588 7,436 -152 -2.0% 7,371 -217 -2.9% 7,503 -85 -1.1% 2021 8,213 7,951 -262 -3.2% 7,776 -437 -5.3% 8,174 -39 -0.5% 15,801 15,387 -414 -2.6% 15,147 -654 -4.1% 15,677 -124 -0.8% 2021 School Boards Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Sheriff East Feliciana Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff 2020 994 994 0 0.0% 994 0 0.0% 994 0 0.0% 2021 1,068 1,068 0 0.0% 1,068 0 0.0% 1,068 0 0.0% 2,062 2,062 0 0.0% 2,062 0 0.0% 2,062 0 0.0% 39,083 37,907 -1,176 -3.0% 37,215 -1,868 -4.8% 38,688 -395 -1.0% Sheriff Total East Feliciana Total Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.14 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 6,880 6,783 -97 -1.4% 6,736 -144 -2.1% 6,834 -45 -0.7% 2021 6,921 6,686 -234 -3.4% 6,534 -387 -5.6% 6,868 -52 -0.8% 13,800 13,469 -331 -2.4% 13,269 -531 -3.8% 13,703 -98 -0.7% 2020 9,750 9,473 -278 -2.8% 9,405 -345 -3.5% 9,542 -209 -2.1% 2021 9,729 9,220 -509 -5.2% 8,936 -793 -8.2% 9,391 -338 -3.5% 19,480 18,693 -787 -4.0% 18,342 -1,138 -5.8% 18,933 -547 -2.8% 2020 14,863 14,604 -259 -1.7% 14,506 -357 -2.4% 14,707 -156 -1.0% 2021 14,929 14,465 -463 -3.1% 14,191 -738 -4.9% 14,817 -111 -0.7% 29,792 29,069 -722 -2.4% 28,697 -1,095 -3.7% 29,524 -267 -0.9% 2020 1,417 1,417 0 0.0% 1,417 0 0.0% 1,417 0 0.0% 2021 1,417 1,415 -1 -0.1% 1,415 -2 -0.1% 1,416 -1 0.0% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Evangeline Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total 2,833 2,832 -1 0.0% 2,832 -2 -0.1% 2,833 -1 0.0% Evangeline Total 65,905 64,064 -1,841 -2.8% 63,140 -2,765 -4.2% 64,992 -913 -1.4% 2020 3,347 3,251 -97 -2.9% 3,216 -132 -3.9% 3,288 -60 -1.8% 2021 3,421 3,292 -129 -3.8% 3,204 -217 -6.3% 3,394 -26 -0.8% 6,768 6,542 -226 -3.3% 6,420 -348 -5.1% 6,682 -86 -1.3% 8,320 8,115 -205 -2.5% 8,053 -267 -3.2% 8,179 -142 -1.7% Franklin Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. 2020 Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.15 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 8,523 8,279 -244 -2.9% 8,137 -386 -4.5% 8,458 -65 -0.8% 16,843 16,394 -449 -2.7% 16,190 -653 -3.9% 16,637 -206 -1.2% 2020 7,609 7,344 -265 -3.5% 7,263 -346 -4.5% 7,427 -182 -2.4% 2021 7,790 7,482 -307 -3.9% 7,302 -488 -6.3% 7,717 -72 -0.9% 15,398 14,826 -572 -3.7% 14,565 -834 -5.4% 15,144 -254 -1.6% 2020 2,319 2,254 -65 -2.8% 2,234 -85 -3.6% 2,275 -44 -1.9% 2021 2,376 2,300 -76 -3.2% 2,255 -121 -5.1% 2,358 -18 -0.8% Sheriff Total 4,695 4,554 -141 -3.0% 4,489 -206 -4.4% 4,633 -62 -1.3% Franklin Total 43,704 42,317 -1,388 -3.2% 41,664 -2,041 -4.7% 43,097 -608 -1.4% 2020 1,130 1,125 -5 -0.4% 1,114 -17 -1.5% 1,138 7 0.6% 2021 1,151 1,138 -14 -1.2% 1,112 -40 -3.4% 1,168 17 1.4% 2,282 2,263 -19 -0.8% 2,225 -56 -2.5% 2,306 24 1.0% 2020 3,042 2,935 -107 -3.5% 2,900 -142 -4.7% 2,970 -72 -2.4% 2021 3,013 2,827 -186 -6.2% 2,701 -312 -10.4% 2,893 -120 -4.0% 6,055 5,762 -293 -4.8% 5,601 -454 -7.5% 5,863 -192 -3.2% 2020 6,070 5,956 -114 -1.9% 5,898 -172 -2.8% 6,015 -55 -0.9% 2021 6,196 6,068 -128 -2.1% 5,957 -239 -3.9% 6,222 26 0.4% 12,266 12,024 -242 -2.0% 11,854 -412 -3.4% 12,237 -29 -0.2% 2021 Par. Gov. Auth. Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Grant Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.16 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 3,923 3,866 -57 -1.5% 3,837 -86 -2.2% 3,895 -28 -0.7% 2021 4,007 3,943 -64 -1.6% 3,887 -120 -3.0% 4,020 13 0.3% 7,930 7,809 -121 -1.5% 7,723 -206 -2.6% 7,915 -15 -0.2% 28,532 27,858 -675 -2.4% 27,404 -1,128 -4.0% 28,320 -212 -0.7% 2020 19,943 19,259 -684 -3.4% 19,054 -889 -4.5% 19,474 -469 -2.4% 2021 19,935 18,318 -1,617 -8.1% 17,341 -2,594 -13.0% 18,915 -1,020 -5.1% 39,878 37,577 -2,301 -5.8% 36,395 -3,483 -8.7% 38,389 -1,489 -3.7% 2020 19,882 19,328 -554 -2.8% 19,188 -694 -3.5% 19,473 -409 -2.1% 2021 19,824 18,406 -1,418 -7.2% 17,484 -2,340 -11.8% 18,739 -1,086 -5.5% 39,706 37,734 -1,972 -5.0% 36,672 -3,034 -7.6% 38,212 -1,495 -3.8% 2020 45,331 44,020 -1,311 -2.9% 43,633 -1,699 -3.7% 44,424 -908 -2.0% 2021 45,209 42,270 -2,939 -6.5% 40,530 -4,679 -10.3% 43,416 -1,794 -4.0% 90,541 86,290 -4,251 -4.7% 84,163 -6,378 -7.0% 87,839 -2,702 -3.0% 2020 9,251 9,089 -163 -1.8% 9,040 -211 -2.3% 9,139 -113 -1.2% 2021 9,197 8,821 -376 -4.1% 8,604 -593 -6.5% 8,966 -231 -2.5% 18,448 17,910 -539 -2.9% 17,644 -805 -4.4% 18,104 -344 -1.9% 188,573 179,511 -9,062 -4.8% 174,874 -13,699 -7.3% 182,544 -6,030 -3.2% 22,164 21,702 -462 -2.1% 21,531 -633 -2.9% 21,893 -270 -1.2% Sheriff Total Grant Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Iberia Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Iberia Total Iberville Municipalities 2020 Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.17 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 23,235 21,668 -1,566 -6.7% 20,860 -2,375 -10.2% 22,667 -568 -2.4% 45,399 43,370 -2,028 -4.5% 42,390 -3,008 -6.6% 44,560 -839 -1.8% 2020 32,532 31,523 -1,008 -3.1% 31,218 -1,314 -4.0% 31,854 -678 -2.1% 2021 34,224 31,523 -2,701 -7.9% 30,155 -4,069 -11.9% 33,052 -1,172 -3.4% 66,755 63,046 -3,709 -5.6% 61,373 -5,383 -8.1% 64,906 -1,850 -2.8% 2020 65,691 64,796 -895 -1.4% 64,493 -1,198 -1.8% 65,129 -562 -0.9% 2021 69,084 66,431 -2,653 -3.8% 65,099 -3,985 -5.8% 68,119 -965 -1.4% 134,775 131,227 -3,548 -2.6% 129,592 -5,183 -3.8% 133,248 -1,527 -1.1% 2020 15,141 15,141 0 0.0% 15,141 0 0.0% 15,141 0 0.0% 2021 15,979 15,948 -31 -0.2% 15,938 -42 -0.3% 15,962 -18 -0.1% 31,121 31,089 -31 -0.1% 31,079 -42 -0.1% 31,103 -18 -0.1% 278,050 268,733 -9,317 -3.4% 264,434 -13,616 -4.9% 273,817 -4,233 -1.5% 2020 2,104 2,042 -63 -3.0% 2,024 -80 -3.8% 2,060 -44 -2.1% 2021 2,035 1,943 -92 -4.5% 1,895 -140 -6.9% 2,004 -32 -1.6% 4,140 3,985 -155 -3.7% 3,920 -220 -5.3% 4,064 -76 -1.8% 2020 6,858 6,763 -95 -1.4% 6,737 -121 -1.8% 6,790 -69 -1.0% 2021 6,533 6,415 -117 -1.8% 6,358 -175 -2.7% 6,503 -29 -0.4% 13,391 13,178 -213 -1.6% 13,095 -296 -2.2% 13,293 -98 -0.7% 2021 Municipalities Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Iberville Total Jackson Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.18 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 10,391 10,127 -264 -2.5% 10,059 -332 -3.2% 10,198 -194 -1.9% 2021 10,079 9,737 -342 -3.4% 9,570 -509 -5.1% 9,962 -117 -1.2% 20,470 19,864 -606 -3.0% 19,629 -842 -4.1% 20,160 -311 -1.5% 2020 4,287 4,287 0 0.0% 4,287 0 0.0% 4,287 0 0.0% 2021 4,177 4,172 -5 -0.1% 4,170 -6 -0.2% 4,174 -3 -0.1% 8,464 8,459 -5 -0.1% 8,457 -6 -0.1% 8,461 -3 0.0% 46,464 45,486 -978 -2.1% 45,100 -1,364 -2.9% 45,977 -487 -1.0% 2020 41,827 40,865 -962 -2.3% 40,567 -1,261 -3.0% 41,180 -648 -1.5% 2021 42,835 40,281 -2,554 -6.0% 38,863 -3,972 -9.3% 41,910 -925 -2.2% 84,663 81,146 -3,516 -4.2% 79,430 -5,233 -6.2% 83,090 -1,573 -1.9% 2020 408,782 397,245 -11,537 -2.8% 394,560 -14,223 -3.5% 400,029 -8,754 -2.1% 2021 418,094 395,243 -22,852 -5.5% 383,891 -34,203 -8.2% 408,640 -9,454 -2.3% 826,876 792,488 -34,388 -4.2% 778,451 -48,425 -5.9% 808,669 -18,207 -2.2% 2020 295,677 284,428 -11,249 -3.8% 281,153 -14,524 -4.9% 287,837 -7,840 -2.7% 2021 303,360 277,565 -25,795 -8.5% 263,604 -39,756 -13.1% 294,178 -9,182 -3.0% 599,037 561,993 -37,044 -6.2% 544,758 -54,279 -9.1% 582,015 -17,022 -2.8% 2020 56,052 54,139 -1,913 -3.4% 53,799 -2,253 -4.0% 54,495 -1,558 -2.8% 2021 57,350 53,893 -3,457 -6.0% 52,371 -4,979 -8.7% 55,730 -1,620 -2.8% 113,402 108,032 -5,370 -4.7% 106,170 -7,232 -6.4% 110,225 -3,177 -2.8% School Boards Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Sheriff Sheriff Total Jackson Total Jefferson Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.19 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Jefferson Total Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 1,623,978 1,543,659 -80,319 -4.9% 1,508,809 -115,170 -7.1% 1,583,999 -39,979 -2.5% 9,381 9,103 -278 -3.0% 9,015 -366 -3.9% 9,197 -185 -2.0% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Jefferson Davis Municipalities 2020 2021 Municipalities Total 9,525 9,013 -512 -5.4% 8,717 -808 -8.5% 9,331 -193 -2.0% 18,906 18,116 -790 -4.2% 17,732 -1,174 -6.2% 18,528 -378 -2.0% 11,705 11,278 -427 -3.6% 11,177 -528 -4.5% 11,382 -323 -2.8% Par. Gov. Auth. 2020 2021 Par. Gov. Auth. Total 11,908 11,162 -746 -6.3% 10,755 -1,153 -9.7% 11,442 -466 -3.9% 23,613 22,440 -1,173 -5.0% 21,932 -1,681 -7.1% 22,824 -789 -3.3% 20,665 20,149 -516 -2.5% 19,995 -671 -3.2% 20,311 -354 -1.7% School Boards 2020 2021 School Boards Total 21,054 20,193 -861 -4.1% 19,713 -1,341 -6.4% 20,738 -316 -1.5% 41,719 40,343 -1,377 -3.3% 39,708 -2,012 -4.8% 41,049 -670 -1.6% 5,256 5,141 -115 -2.2% 5,107 -149 -2.8% 5,177 -79 -1.5% Sheriff 2020 2021 5,361 5,173 -189 -3.5% 5,068 -293 -5.5% 5,292 -69 -1.3% 10,617 10,314 -303 -2.9% 10,175 -442 -4.2% 10,469 -148 -1.4% 94,856 91,213 -3,643 -3.8% 89,547 -5,309 -5.6% 92,871 -1,985 -2.1% 2020 26,801 25,443 -1,357 -5.1% 25,064 -1,737 -6.5% 25,838 -962 -3.6% 2021 27,301 24,527 -2,775 -10.2% 22,946 -4,355 -16.0% 25,854 -1,447 -5.3% 54,102 49,970 -4,132 -7.6% 48,010 -6,092 -11.3% 51,693 -2,409 -4.5% Sheriff Total Jefferson Davis Total Lafayette Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.20 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 181,850 178,123 -3,726 -2.0% 177,027 -4,823 -2.7% 179,288 -2,561 -1.4% 2021 184,836 175,215 -9,621 -5.2% 169,519 -15,317 -8.3% 179,173 -5,663 -3.1% 366,686 353,339 -13,347 -3.6% 346,546 -20,139 -5.5% 358,462 -8,224 -2.2% 2020 194,750 188,760 -5,989 -3.1% 187,061 -7,689 -3.9% 190,540 -4,210 -2.2% 2021 198,059 184,938 -13,121 -6.6% 177,390 -20,670 -10.4% 190,954 -7,105 -3.6% 392,809 373,699 -19,110 -4.9% 364,450 -28,359 -7.2% 381,494 -11,315 -2.9% 2020 43,791 43,389 -401 -0.9% 43,284 -507 -1.2% 43,496 -295 -0.7% 2021 44,417 43,758 -659 -1.5% 43,433 -985 -2.2% 44,126 -291 -0.7% Sheriff Total 88,208 87,148 -1,061 -1.2% 86,717 -1,491 -1.7% 87,622 -586 -0.7% Lafayette Total 901,805 864,155 -37,650 -4.2% 845,724 -56,081 -6.2% 879,271 -22,534 -2.5% 2020 13,520 13,195 -324 -2.4% 13,029 -490 -3.6% 13,370 -150 -1.1% 2021 13,421 12,609 -812 -6.0% 12,027 -1,394 -10.4% 13,153 -268 -2.0% 26,941 25,805 -1,136 -4.2% 25,056 -1,885 -7.0% 26,523 -418 -1.6% 2020 63,502 62,572 -930 -1.5% 62,278 -1,225 -1.9% 62,876 -626 -1.0% 2021 62,344 60,306 -2,038 -3.3% 59,064 -3,280 -5.3% 61,115 -1,229 -2.0% 125,847 122,878 -2,968 -2.4% 121,342 -4,505 -3.6% 123,991 -1,855 -1.5% 2020 70,237 69,137 -1,100 -1.6% 68,654 -1,583 -2.3% 69,640 -597 -0.9% 2021 69,103 66,768 -2,335 -3.4% 65,211 -3,893 -5.6% 68,351 -752 -1.1% 139,341 135,906 -3,435 -2.5% 133,865 -5,476 -3.9% 137,991 -1,350 -1.0% Par. Gov. Auth. Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Lafourche Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.21 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 21,634 21,139 -495 -2.3% 20,935 -699 -3.2% 21,350 -284 -1.3% 2021 21,336 20,387 -948 -4.4% 19,765 -1,571 -7.4% 21,046 -290 -1.4% Sheriff Total 42,970 41,527 -1,443 -3.4% 40,700 -2,269 -5.3% 42,396 -574 -1.3% Lafourche Total 335,098 326,115 -8,982 -2.7% 320,963 -14,134 -4.2% 330,901 -4,197 -1.3% 2020 4,294 4,197 -98 -2.3% 4,165 -129 -3.0% 4,232 -62 -1.5% 2021 4,820 4,518 -302 -6.3% 4,338 -483 -10.0% 4,640 -181 -3.8% 9,115 8,715 -400 -4.4% 8,503 -612 -6.7% 8,872 -243 -2.7% 2020 5,588 5,466 -122 -2.2% 5,451 -137 -2.5% 5,482 -107 -1.9% 2021 5,680 5,319 -361 -6.4% 5,117 -563 -9.9% 5,289 -391 -6.9% 11,268 10,785 -483 -4.3% 10,568 -700 -6.2% 10,771 -498 -4.4% 2020 13,684 13,272 -412 -3.0% 13,154 -530 -3.9% 13,397 -287 -2.1% 2021 15,126 14,222 -903 -6.0% 13,725 -1,401 -9.3% 14,660 -466 -3.1% 28,809 27,494 -1,315 -4.6% 26,878 -1,931 -6.7% 28,056 -753 -2.6% 2020 4,535 4,464 -71 -1.6% 4,444 -91 -2.0% 4,485 -49 -1.1% 2021 4,845 4,690 -154 -3.2% 4,607 -238 -4.9% 4,765 -79 -1.6% 9,379 9,155 -225 -2.4% 9,051 -329 -3.5% 9,251 -129 -1.4% 58,572 56,149 -2,423 -4.1% 55,000 -3,572 -6.1% 56,949 -1,622 -2.8% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Sheriff Lasalle Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Lasalle Total Lincoln Municipalities Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.22 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 16,978 16,411 -567 -3.3% 16,259 -719 -4.2% 16,575 -403 -2.4% 2021 16,132 14,934 -1,198 -7.4% 14,312 -1,820 -11.3% 15,628 -504 -3.1% 33,110 31,345 -1,765 -5.3% 30,570 -2,540 -7.7% 32,203 -907 -2.7% 2020 12,574 12,367 -207 -1.6% 12,314 -260 -2.1% 12,422 -151 -1.2% 2021 12,400 12,022 -379 -3.1% 11,834 -567 -4.6% 12,245 -155 -1.3% 24,974 24,388 -586 -2.3% 24,147 -827 -3.3% 24,667 -307 -1.2% 2020 37,927 37,176 -751 -2.0% 36,979 -948 -2.5% 37,386 -541 -1.4% 2021 37,179 35,694 -1,485 -4.0% 34,941 -2,238 -6.0% 36,561 -618 -1.7% 75,106 72,870 -2,236 -3.0% 71,920 -3,185 -4.2% 73,946 -1,159 -1.5% 2020 7,218 7,124 -94 -1.3% 7,100 -118 -1.6% 7,150 -67 -0.9% 2021 7,158 6,969 -188 -2.6% 6,874 -283 -4.0% 7,078 -79 -1.1% 14,375 14,093 -282 -2.0% 13,974 -401 -2.8% 14,229 -147 -1.0% 147,565 142,696 -4,869 -3.3% 140,612 -6,953 -4.7% 145,046 -2,519 -1.7% 2020 18,449 17,990 -460 -2.5% 17,797 -653 -3.5% 18,197 -253 -1.4% 2021 19,158 18,080 -1,078 -5.6% 17,387 -1,771 -9.2% 18,868 -290 -1.5% 37,608 36,070 -1,538 -4.1% 35,184 -2,424 -6.4% 37,065 -543 -1.4% 2020 25,876 24,810 -1,066 -4.1% 24,486 -1,389 -5.4% 25,144 -732 -2.8% 2021 26,838 25,120 -1,718 -6.4% 24,152 -2,686 -10.0% 26,257 -581 -2.2% 52,714 49,930 -2,783 -5.3% 48,639 -4,075 -7.7% 51,401 -1,313 -2.5% Municipalities Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Lincoln Total Livingston Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.23 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 72,207 70,185 -2,022 -2.8% 69,472 -2,735 -3.8% 70,933 -1,274 -1.8% 2021 74,931 71,189 -3,742 -5.0% 68,945 -5,986 -8.0% 73,913 -1,019 -1.4% 147,138 141,375 -5,763 -3.9% 138,417 -8,721 -5.9% 144,846 -2,292 -1.6% 2020 21,786 21,364 -422 -1.9% 21,220 -566 -2.6% 21,513 -273 -1.3% 2021 22,590 21,846 -744 -3.3% 21,409 -1,181 -5.2% 22,386 -204 -0.9% Sheriff Total 44,376 43,210 -1,166 -2.6% 42,629 -1,747 -3.9% 43,899 -477 -1.1% Livingston Total 281,835 270,585 -11,251 -4.0% 264,869 -16,966 -6.0% 277,211 -4,625 -1.6% 2020 2,415 2,342 -74 -3.0% 2,318 -98 -4.0% 2,367 -49 -2.0% 2021 2,403 2,301 -102 -4.3% 2,240 -164 -6.8% 2,378 -26 -1.1% 4,819 4,643 -176 -3.7% 4,557 -261 -5.4% 4,744 -74 -1.5% 2020 6,688 6,639 -49 -0.7% 6,623 -65 -1.0% 6,657 -31 -0.5% 2021 6,613 6,538 -75 -1.1% 6,492 -120 -1.8% 6,593 -20 -0.3% 13,300 13,177 -123 -0.9% 13,115 -186 -1.4% 13,250 -51 -0.4% 2020 5,899 5,750 -149 -2.5% 5,703 -196 -3.3% 5,799 -100 -1.7% 2021 5,861 5,660 -201 -3.4% 5,542 -319 -5.4% 5,810 -51 -0.9% 11,760 11,410 -351 -3.0% 11,245 -516 -4.4% 11,609 -152 -1.3% 2020 1,548 1,519 -30 -1.9% 1,509 -39 -2.5% 1,528 -20 -1.3% 2021 1,536 1,496 -40 -2.6% 1,473 -64 -4.2% 1,526 -10 -0.7% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Madison Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.24 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Revenue ($) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Sheriff Total 3,085 3,015 -70 -2.3% 2,982 -103 -3.3% 3,054 -30 -1.0% Madison Total 32,964 32,244 -720 -2.2% 31,899 -1,065 -3.2% 32,657 -307 -0.9% 8,838 8,743 -94 -1.1% 8,685 -153 -1.7% 8,807 -31 -0.4% Morehouse Municipalities 2020 2021 8,742 8,491 -251 -2.9% 8,310 -432 -4.9% 8,705 -37 -0.4% 17,580 17,234 -345 -2.0% 16,995 -585 -3.3% 17,512 -68 -0.4% 2020 2,447 2,395 -53 -2.2% 2,368 -80 -3.3% 2,424 -24 -1.0% 2021 2,361 2,247 -114 -4.8% 2,169 -192 -8.1% 2,343 -18 -0.8% 4,809 4,642 -166 -3.5% 4,537 -271 -5.6% 4,766 -42 -0.9% 2020 11,798 11,626 -172 -1.5% 11,550 -248 -2.1% 11,706 -92 -0.8% 2021 11,728 11,407 -321 -2.7% 11,199 -529 -4.5% 11,670 -58 -0.5% 23,526 23,033 -493 -2.1% 22,748 -778 -3.3% 23,377 -149 -0.6% 2020 4,290 4,202 -88 -2.0% 4,172 -117 -2.7% 4,232 -57 -1.3% 2021 Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff 4,281 4,159 -122 -2.8% 4,090 -191 -4.5% 4,255 -26 -0.6% Sheriff Total 8,570 8,361 -209 -2.4% 8,262 -308 -3.6% 8,487 -84 -1.0% Morehouse Total 54,485 53,271 -1,214 -2.2% 52,543 -1,942 -3.6% 54,141 -343 -0.6% 2020 13,202 12,675 -527 -4.0% 12,531 -671 -5.1% 12,826 -376 -2.8% 2021 13,246 11,992 -1,254 -9.5% 11,352 -1,894 -14.3% 12,777 -469 -3.5% 26,448 24,666 -1,782 -6.7% 23,883 -2,565 -9.7% 25,603 -845 -3.2% Natchitoches Municipalities Municipalities Total Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.25 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 10,376 10,192 -184 -1.8% 10,145 -231 -2.2% 10,240 -136 -1.3% 2021 10,415 10,059 -355 -3.4% 9,886 -528 -5.1% 10,283 -131 -1.3% 20,791 20,252 -539 -2.6% 20,031 -759 -3.7% 20,524 -267 -1.3% 2020 23,006 22,217 -789 -3.4% 22,008 -998 -4.3% 22,433 -573 -2.5% 2021 23,178 21,480 -1,698 -7.3% 20,630 -2,548 -11.0% 22,549 -629 -2.7% 46,184 43,696 -2,487 -5.4% 42,638 -3,545 -7.7% 44,982 -1,201 -2.6% 2020 9,412 9,088 -323 -3.4% 9,000 -412 -4.4% 9,181 -231 -2.5% 2021 9,465 8,701 -764 -8.1% 8,312 -1,153 -12.2% 9,179 -286 -3.0% Sheriff Total 18,877 17,789 -1,088 -5.8% 17,312 -1,565 -8.3% 18,360 -517 -2.7% Natchitoches Total 112,299 106,404 -5,895 -5.2% 103,864 -8,435 -7.5% 109,469 -2,830 -2.5% 2020 591,867 563,636 -28,231 -4.8% 559,156 -32,711 -5.5% 568,225 -23,641 -4.0% 2021 624,635 544,117 -80,518 -12.9% 508,471 -116,165 -18.6% 587,388 -37,247 -6.0% 1,216,502 1,107,753 -108,749 -8.9% 1,067,626 -148,876 -12.2% 1,155,613 -60,889 -5.0% 2020 339,579 322,279 -17,300 -5.1% 319,449 -20,129 -5.9% 325,174 -14,404 -4.2% 2021 358,276 308,772 -49,504 -13.8% 286,671 -71,604 -20.0% 335,581 -22,695 -6.3% 697,854 631,051 -66,804 -9.6% 606,121 -91,734 -13.1% 660,755 -37,099 -5.3% 2020 11,307 11,307 0 0.0% 11,307 0 0.0% 11,307 0 0.0% 2021 11,977 11,969 -8 -0.1% 11,967 -10 -0.1% 11,971 -6 0.0% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Orleans Municipalities Municipalities Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.26 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Sheriff Total Baseline (Without COVID) Revenue ($) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) 23,283 23,275 -8 0.0% 23,274 -10 0.0% 23,277 -6 0.0% 1,937,640 1,762,079 -175,561 -9.1% 1,697,021 -240,619 -12.4% 1,839,646 -97,994 -5.1% 2020 101,107 97,587 -3,520 -3.5% 96,541 -4,565 -4.5% 98,699 -2,407 -2.4% 2021 100,456 94,615 -5,841 -5.8% 91,329 -9,127 -9.1% 98,482 -1,974 -2.0% 201,563 192,202 -9,361 -4.6% 187,870 -13,693 -6.8% 197,182 -4,382 -2.2% 59,564 58,301 -1,263 -2.1% 57,936 -1,628 -2.7% 58,675 -889 -1.5% Orleans Total Ouachita Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. 2020 2021 60,168 58,414 -1,754 -2.9% 57,478 -2,690 -4.5% 59,650 -518 -0.9% 119,732 116,715 -3,017 -2.5% 115,414 -4,318 -3.6% 118,326 -1,407 -1.2% 2020 118,184 115,106 -3,077 -2.6% 114,083 -4,101 -3.5% 116,179 -2,004 -1.7% 2021 118,322 113,127 -5,195 -4.4% 110,091 -8,231 -7.0% 116,837 -1,485 -1.3% 236,505 228,233 -8,272 -3.5% 224,174 -12,331 -5.2% 233,016 -3,490 -1.5% 2020 17,476 16,943 -533 -3.0% 16,764 -711 -4.1% 17,131 -345 -2.0% 2021 Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff 17,427 16,518 -909 -5.2% 15,983 -1,444 -8.3% 17,168 -259 -1.5% Sheriff Total 34,902 33,461 -1,442 -4.1% 32,747 -2,155 -6.2% 34,298 -604 -1.7% Ouachita Total 592,703 570,611 -22,092 -3.7% 560,206 -32,498 -5.5% 582,821 -9,882 -1.7% 2020 35,382 33,586 -1,796 -5.1% 33,331 -2,051 -5.8% 33,851 -1,531 -4.3% 2021 34,930 30,355 -4,574 -13.1% 27,942 -6,987 -20.0% 30,852 -4,078 -11.7% 70,312 63,941 -6,370 -9.1% 61,274 -9,038 -12.9% 64,703 -5,609 -8.0% Plaquemines Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.27 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 38,079 37,258 -820 -2.2% 37,076 -1,002 -2.6% 37,452 -627 -1.6% 2021 37,451 35,270 -2,182 -5.8% 34,198 -3,254 -8.7% 36,142 -1,309 -3.5% 75,530 72,528 -3,002 -4.0% 71,274 -4,256 -5.6% 73,594 -1,936 -2.6% 2020 16,919 16,919 0 0.0% 16,919 0 0.0% 16,919 0 0.0% 2021 16,739 16,677 -62 -0.4% 16,665 -74 -0.4% 16,690 -48 -0.3% Sheriff Total 33,658 33,596 -62 -0.2% 33,584 -74 -0.2% 33,609 -48 -0.1% Plaquemines Total 179,500 170,065 -9,435 -5.3% 166,132 -13,368 -7.4% 171,907 -7,593 -4.2% 2020 2,241 2,186 -55 -2.4% 2,152 -89 -4.0% 2,222 -19 -0.9% 2021 2,274 2,117 -157 -6.9% 2,007 -268 -11.8% 2,249 -26 -1.1% 4,515 4,303 -212 -4.7% 4,159 -357 -7.9% 4,470 -45 -1.0% 2020 6,117 5,842 -275 -4.5% 5,739 -378 -6.2% 5,947 -170 -2.8% 2021 6,143 5,589 -554 -9.0% 5,247 -896 -14.6% 5,932 -210 -3.4% 12,260 11,431 -829 -6.8% 10,986 -1,274 -10.4% 11,879 -381 -3.1% 2020 15,284 15,005 -279 -1.8% 14,856 -428 -2.8% 15,157 -127 -0.8% 2021 15,365 14,688 -677 -4.4% 14,234 -1,131 -7.4% 15,248 -116 -0.8% 30,649 29,692 -957 -3.1% 29,090 -1,559 -5.1% 30,406 -243 -0.8% 2020 7,298 7,298 0 0.0% 7,298 0 0.0% 7,298 0 0.0% 2021 7,241 7,233 -7 -0.1% 7,231 -9 -0.1% 7,236 -5 -0.1% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Pointe Coupee Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.28 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Sheriff Total Pointe Coupee Total Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID ($) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) 14,539 14,532 -7 -0.1% 14,530 -9 -0.1% 14,534 -5 0.0% 61,963 59,958 -2,005 -3.2% 58,764 -3,198 -5.2% 61,289 -673 -1.1% 69,731 67,915 -1,816 -2.6% 67,233 -2,499 -3.6% 68,643 -1,088 -1.6% Rapides Municipalities 2020 2021 70,183 67,042 -3,141 -4.5% 65,035 -5,147 -7.3% 69,394 -789 -1.1% 139,914 134,957 -4,957 -3.5% 132,268 -7,646 -5.5% 138,037 -1,877 -1.3% 2020 31,181 30,845 -337 -1.1% 30,746 -435 -1.4% 30,945 -236 -0.8% 2021 31,587 31,131 -457 -1.4% 30,883 -705 -2.2% 31,445 -143 -0.5% 62,769 61,975 -793 -1.3% 61,629 -1,140 -1.8% 62,390 -378 -0.6% 82,642 81,138 -1,504 -1.8% 80,601 -2,041 -2.5% 81,707 -935 -1.1% Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards 2020 2021 83,591 81,126 -2,465 -2.9% 79,598 -3,993 -4.8% 82,959 -632 -0.8% 166,233 162,265 -3,968 -2.4% 160,199 -6,034 -3.6% 164,666 -1,567 -0.9% 2020 27,435 26,898 -537 -2.0% 26,711 -723 -2.6% 27,095 -340 -1.2% 2021 27,749 26,899 -850 -3.1% 26,379 -1,370 -4.9% 27,529 -219 -0.8% 55,183 53,797 -1,387 -2.5% 53,090 -2,093 -3.8% 54,624 -559 -1.0% 424,099 412,994 -11,105 -2.6% 407,186 -16,913 -4.0% 419,717 -4,382 -1.0% 2020 1,510 1,475 -35 -2.3% 1,466 -44 -2.9% 1,485 -25 -1.6% 2021 1,655 1,546 -109 -6.6% 1,486 -169 -10.2% 1,585 -70 -4.2% 3,165 3,021 -144 -4.6% 2,951 -213 -6.7% 3,070 -94 -3.0% School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Rapides Total Red River Municipalities Municipalities Total Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.29 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 8,986 8,791 -195 -2.2% 8,749 -236 -2.6% 8,836 -149 -1.7% 2021 9,509 8,981 -528 -5.6% 8,694 -815 -8.6% 9,120 -389 -4.1% 18,494 17,772 -723 -3.9% 17,444 -1,051 -5.7% 17,956 -538 -2.9% 2020 16,637 16,448 -190 -1.1% 16,399 -238 -1.4% 16,501 -136 -0.8% 2021 17,243 16,691 -552 -3.2% 16,402 -840 -4.9% 16,901 -341 -2.0% 33,880 33,138 -742 -2.2% 32,801 -1,079 -3.2% 33,403 -477 -1.4% 2020 6,499 6,360 -138 -2.1% 6,324 -174 -2.7% 6,401 -98 -1.5% 2021 7,036 6,620 -416 -5.9% 6,393 -643 -9.1% 6,774 -262 -3.7% 13,535 12,981 -554 -4.1% 12,717 -818 -6.0% 13,174 -361 -2.7% 69,074 66,911 -2,163 -3.1% 65,913 -3,161 -4.6% 67,603 -1,470 -2.1% 2020 2,463 2,407 -56 -2.3% 2,385 -78 -3.2% 2,430 -33 -1.3% 2021 2,402 2,312 -90 -3.7% 2,253 -148 -6.2% 2,380 -21 -0.9% 4,865 4,718 -146 -3.0% 4,638 -226 -4.7% 4,810 -54 -1.1% 2020 6,679 6,460 -219 -3.3% 6,380 -299 -4.5% 6,545 -134 -2.0% 2021 6,441 6,113 -328 -5.1% 5,907 -534 -8.3% 6,360 -81 -1.3% 13,120 12,573 -547 -4.2% 12,287 -833 -6.3% 12,905 -215 -1.6% 2020 12,033 11,798 -235 -2.0% 11,718 -315 -2.6% 11,882 -151 -1.3% 2021 11,893 11,566 -328 -2.8% 11,370 -524 -4.4% 11,812 -82 -0.7% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Red River Total Richland Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.30 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 23,926 23,364 -562 -2.4% 23,088 -839 -3.5% 23,694 -232 -1.0% 2020 3,847 3,773 -74 -1.9% 3,745 -102 -2.6% 3,802 -45 -1.2% 2021 3,785 3,672 -113 -3.0% 3,602 -183 -4.8% 3,758 -27 -0.7% School Boards Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Sheriff Sheriff Total 7,632 7,445 -187 -2.4% 7,347 -285 -3.7% 7,559 -72 -0.9% Richland Total 49,543 48,100 -1,443 -2.9% 47,360 -2,183 -4.4% 48,969 -574 -1.2% 2020 3,486 3,424 -62 -1.8% 3,396 -90 -2.6% 3,454 -32 -0.9% 2021 3,856 3,677 -179 -4.6% 3,566 -289 -7.5% 3,799 -57 -1.5% 7,342 7,101 -241 -3.3% 6,963 -379 -5.2% 7,253 -88 -1.2% 2020 11,774 11,594 -181 -1.5% 11,530 -245 -2.1% 11,662 -112 -1.0% 2021 12,755 12,362 -393 -3.1% 12,137 -618 -4.8% 12,628 -127 -1.0% 24,529 23,956 -574 -2.3% 23,667 -862 -3.5% 24,291 -239 -1.0% 2020 19,873 19,459 -414 -2.1% 19,313 -560 -2.8% 19,616 -257 -1.3% 2021 21,830 20,945 -885 -4.1% 20,439 -1,390 -6.4% 21,553 -277 -1.3% 41,703 40,404 -1,299 -3.1% 39,752 -1,951 -4.7% 41,169 -534 -1.3% 6,734 6,607 -127 -1.9% 6,562 -172 -2.6% 6,655 -78 -1.2% Sabine Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff 2020 2021 Sheriff Total Sabine Total 7,385 7,112 -274 -3.7% 6,955 -430 -5.8% 7,299 -86 -1.2% 14,119 13,718 -400 -2.8% 13,517 -602 -4.3% 13,955 -164 -1.2% 87,692 85,179 -2,514 -2.9% 83,898 -3,794 -4.3% 86,668 -1,025 -1.2% St. Bernard Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.31 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 38,854 37,766 -1,088 -2.8% 37,445 -1,409 -3.6% 38,099 -755 -1.9% 2021 41,130 39,116 -2,014 -4.9% 37,964 -3,167 -7.7% 40,358 -772 -1.9% 79,984 76,883 -3,102 -3.9% 75,409 -4,576 -5.7% 78,458 -1,527 -1.9% 2020 32,795 31,777 -1,018 -3.1% 31,481 -1,314 -4.0% 32,080 -715 -2.2% 2021 34,830 33,204 -1,627 -4.7% 32,316 -2,515 -7.2% 34,345 -486 -1.4% 67,625 64,981 -2,645 -3.9% 63,797 -3,829 -5.7% 66,424 -1,201 -1.8% 2020 16,012 15,785 -226 -1.4% 15,717 -295 -1.8% 15,856 -156 -1.0% 2021 17,108 16,713 -395 -2.3% 16,493 -615 -3.6% 16,988 -120 -0.7% Sheriff Total 33,120 32,498 -622 -1.9% 32,210 -909 -2.7% 32,844 -276 -0.8% St. Bernard Total 180,729 174,362 -6,368 -3.5% 171,416 -9,314 -5.2% 177,725 -3,004 -1.7% 2020 73,435 71,829 -1,606 -2.2% 71,331 -2,104 -2.9% 72,368 -1,067 -1.5% 2021 79,101 74,452 -4,648 -5.9% 72,101 -7,000 -8.8% 77,207 -1,894 -2.4% 152,536 146,281 -6,254 -4.1% 143,432 -9,104 -6.0% 149,575 -2,961 -1.9% 2020 146,016 143,772 -2,244 -1.5% 143,024 -2,993 -2.0% 144,586 -1,431 -1.0% 2021 157,378 150,725 -6,654 -4.2% 147,403 -9,975 -6.3% 155,108 -2,270 -1.4% 303,395 294,497 -8,898 -2.9% 290,427 -12,968 -4.3% 299,694 -3,701 -1.2% 2020 33,491 33,491 0 0.0% 33,491 0 0.0% 33,491 0 0.0% 2021 36,121 36,071 -50 -0.1% 36,053 -68 -0.2% 36,095 -26 -0.1% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff St. Charles Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.32 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Revenue ($) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Sheriff Total 69,612 69,562 -50 -0.1% 69,544 -68 -0.1% 69,586 -26 0.0% St. Charles Total 525,542 510,340 -15,202 -2.9% 503,403 -22,140 -4.2% 518,855 -6,688 -1.3% 2020 493 489 -4 -0.9% 484 -9 -1.8% 494 1 0.1% 2021 502 487 -14 -2.9% 474 -27 -5.5% 503 1 0.3% 995 977 -19 -1.9% 959 -36 -3.7% 997 2 0.2% 2020 4,526 4,393 -133 -2.9% 4,346 -180 -4.0% 4,440 -86 -1.9% 2021 4,567 4,349 -218 -4.8% 4,212 -355 -7.8% 4,483 -84 -1.8% 9,093 8,742 -351 -3.9% 8,558 -535 -5.9% 8,923 -170 -1.9% 2020 2,975 2,904 -71 -2.4% 2,875 -101 -3.4% 2,934 -41 -1.4% 2021 2,981 2,879 -102 -3.4% 2,811 -170 -5.7% 2,971 -10 -0.3% 5,956 5,783 -174 -2.9% 5,686 -270 -4.5% 5,905 -51 -0.9% 909 909 0 0.0% 909 0 0.0% 909 0 0.0% St. Helena Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff 2020 886 885 0 0.0% 885 -1 -0.1% 886 0 0.0% Sheriff Total 2021 1,795 1,794 0 0.0% 1,794 -1 0.0% 1,795 0 0.0% St. Helena Total 17,840 17,296 -544 -3.0% 16,997 -842 -4.7% 17,620 -219 -1.2% 2020 1,947 1,900 -48 -2.4% 1,885 -63 -3.2% 1,917 -31 -1.6% 2021 2,202 2,054 -148 -6.7% 1,981 -221 -10.0% 2,149 -52 -2.4% 4,149 3,954 -195 -4.7% 3,866 -283 -6.8% 4,066 -83 -2.0% St. James Municipalities Municipalities Total Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.33 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 28,349 28,056 -292 -1.0% 27,963 -386 -1.4% 28,163 -186 -0.7% 2021 31,875 31,051 -824 -2.6% 30,616 -1,259 -3.9% 31,543 -332 -1.0% 60,224 59,107 -1,117 -1.9% 58,579 -1,644 -2.7% 59,706 -518 -0.9% 2020 57,907 56,879 -1,028 -1.8% 56,553 -1,354 -2.3% 57,237 -669 -1.2% 2021 65,253 62,111 -3,142 -4.8% 60,574 -4,679 -7.2% 64,132 -1,121 -1.7% 123,160 118,990 -4,170 -3.4% 117,128 -6,032 -4.9% 121,370 -1,790 -1.5% 2020 13,964 13,964 0 0.0% 13,964 0 0.0% 13,964 0 0.0% 2021 15,616 15,588 -29 -0.2% 15,577 -39 -0.2% 15,601 -15 -0.1% Sheriff Total 29,580 29,551 -29 -0.1% 29,541 -39 -0.1% 29,565 -15 -0.1% St. James Total 217,112 211,602 -5,510 -2.5% 209,113 -7,999 -3.7% 214,706 -2,407 -1.1% 2020 39,258 38,373 -885 -2.3% 38,123 -1,135 -2.9% 38,644 -614 -1.6% 2021 39,430 37,268 -2,162 -5.5% 36,187 -3,243 -8.2% 38,554 -876 -2.2% 78,688 75,642 -3,046 -3.9% 74,310 -4,378 -5.6% 77,198 -1,490 -1.9% 2020 40,220 39,288 -931 -2.3% 39,023 -1,197 -3.0% 39,575 -644 -1.6% 2021 40,368 38,071 -2,297 -5.7% 36,920 -3,448 -8.5% 39,443 -925 -2.3% 80,588 77,359 -3,228 -4.0% 75,943 -4,645 -5.8% 79,019 -1,569 -1.9% 2020 18,965 18,521 -443 -2.3% 18,387 -577 -3.0% 18,669 -296 -1.6% 2021 18,973 17,714 -1,258 -6.6% 17,069 -1,904 -10.0% 18,456 -517 -2.7% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff St. John The Baptist Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.34 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Sheriff Total Baseline (Without COVID) Revenue ($) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) 37,937 36,236 -1,702 -4.5% 35,456 -2,481 -6.5% 37,125 -812 -2.1% 197,213 189,237 -7,977 -4.0% 185,710 -11,504 -5.8% 193,342 -3,872 -2.0% 2020 20,125 19,522 -602 -3.0% 19,259 -866 -4.3% 19,796 -329 -1.6% 2021 20,227 19,084 -1,143 -5.6% 18,296 -1,931 -9.5% 19,962 -265 -1.3% 40,351 38,606 -1,745 -4.3% 37,555 -2,796 -6.9% 39,758 -593 -1.5% 2020 14,411 13,856 -555 -3.9% 13,676 -735 -5.1% 14,039 -372 -2.6% 2021 14,545 13,688 -857 -5.9% 13,171 -1,374 -9.4% 14,232 -314 -2.2% 28,957 27,544 -1,413 -4.9% 26,847 -2,109 -7.3% 28,271 -686 -2.4% 2020 36,731 35,692 -1,039 -2.8% 35,287 -1,444 -3.9% 36,109 -623 -1.7% 2021 37,056 35,332 -1,724 -4.7% 34,207 -2,849 -7.7% 36,654 -402 -1.1% 73,787 71,023 -2,764 -3.7% 69,494 -4,293 -5.8% 72,763 -1,024 -1.4% 2020 11,947 11,716 -231 -1.9% 11,645 -302 -2.5% 11,788 -159 -1.3% 2021 St. John The Baptist Total St. Landry Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff 12,135 11,842 -293 -2.4% 11,680 -455 -3.7% 12,064 -71 -0.6% Sheriff Total 24,081 23,558 -524 -2.2% 23,325 -757 -3.1% 23,852 -230 -1.0% St. Landry Total 167,176 160,731 -6,445 -3.9% 157,221 -9,955 -6.0% 164,643 -2,533 -1.5% 2020 6,901 6,737 -164 -2.4% 6,660 -240 -3.5% 6,819 -82 -1.2% 2021 7,154 6,690 -464 -6.5% 6,389 -765 -10.7% 6,993 -161 -2.3% 14,055 13,427 -628 -4.5% 13,049 -1,005 -7.2% 13,812 -243 -1.7% St. Martin Municipalities Municipalities Total Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.35 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 19,237 18,988 -249 -1.3% 18,899 -338 -1.8% 19,081 -156 -0.8% 2021 19,557 19,019 -538 -2.8% 18,702 -854 -4.4% 19,347 -209 -1.1% 38,794 38,007 -787 -2.0% 37,601 -1,193 -3.1% 38,428 -366 -0.9% 2020 29,492 28,857 -635 -2.2% 28,609 -883 -3.0% 29,117 -375 -1.3% 2021 30,238 28,832 -1,406 -4.6% 27,977 -2,261 -7.5% 29,774 -464 -1.5% 59,730 57,689 -2,040 -3.4% 56,586 -3,144 -5.3% 58,891 -839 -1.4% 2020 11,406 11,185 -222 -1.9% 11,087 -320 -2.8% 11,289 -117 -1.0% 2021 11,733 11,147 -586 -5.0% 10,775 -958 -8.2% 11,531 -202 -1.7% Sheriff Total 23,139 22,332 -807 -3.5% 21,862 -1,278 -5.5% 22,820 -319 -1.4% St. Martin Total 135,717 131,455 -4,262 -3.1% 129,098 -6,620 -4.9% 133,950 -1,767 -1.3% 2020 16,165 15,667 -498 -3.1% 15,517 -648 -4.0% 15,826 -339 -2.1% 2021 16,165 14,642 -1,523 -9.4% 13,750 -2,415 -14.9% 15,199 -966 -6.0% 32,330 30,309 -2,021 -6.3% 29,267 -3,063 -9.5% 31,026 -1,304 -4.0% 2020 14,386 13,476 -910 -6.3% 13,311 -1,075 -7.5% 13,644 -742 -5.2% 2021 14,400 12,362 -2,038 -14.2% 11,242 -3,158 -21.9% 12,656 -1,745 -12.1% 28,786 25,838 -2,948 -10.2% 24,553 -4,233 -14.7% 26,299 -2,487 -8.6% 2020 35,971 35,253 -718 -2.0% 35,045 -926 -2.6% 35,471 -499 -1.4% 2021 35,916 33,985 -1,931 -5.4% 32,911 -3,004 -8.4% 34,761 -1,155 -3.2% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff St. Mary Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.36 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 71,886 69,237 -2,649 -3.7% 67,956 -3,930 -5.5% 70,232 -1,654 -2.3% 2020 8,729 8,427 -302 -3.5% 8,339 -390 -4.5% 8,520 -209 -2.4% 2021 8,728 7,916 -812 -9.3% 7,451 -1,277 -14.6% 8,240 -488 -5.6% School Boards Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Sheriff Sheriff Total 17,457 16,343 -1,114 -6.4% 15,790 -1,667 -9.5% 16,760 -697 -4.0% St. Mary Total 150,459 141,727 -8,732 -5.8% 137,566 -12,893 -8.6% 144,317 -6,143 -4.1% 69,754 67,083 -2,671 -3.8% 66,282 -3,471 -5.0% 67,921 -1,833 -2.6% St. Tammany Municipalities 2020 2021 71,893 65,414 -6,479 -9.0% 61,796 -10,097 -14.0% 69,293 -2,600 -3.6% 141,647 132,497 -9,150 -6.5% 128,078 -13,569 -9.6% 137,214 -4,433 -3.1% 2020 101,609 97,550 -4,059 -4.0% 96,419 -5,189 -5.1% 98,711 -2,897 -2.9% 2021 104,625 96,559 -8,067 -7.7% 92,251 -12,374 -11.8% 101,578 -3,047 -2.9% 206,234 194,109 -12,125 -5.9% 188,671 -17,563 -8.5% 200,289 -5,945 -2.9% 2020 244,507 238,416 -6,091 -2.5% 236,670 -7,836 -3.2% 240,222 -4,284 -1.8% 2021 251,337 238,177 -13,160 -5.2% 231,025 -20,312 -8.1% 246,221 -5,117 -2.0% 495,844 476,593 -19,251 -3.9% 467,695 -28,149 -5.7% 486,443 -9,401 -1.9% 2020 37,338 36,117 -1,221 -3.3% 35,755 -1,583 -4.2% 36,496 -842 -2.3% 2021 38,444 35,551 -2,893 -7.5% 33,944 -4,500 -11.7% 37,290 -1,154 -3.0% 75,782 71,669 -4,114 -5.4% 69,699 -6,083 -8.0% 73,786 -1,996 -2.6% 919,507 874,868 -44,640 -4.9% 854,144 -65,363 -7.1% 897,732 -21,775 -2.4% Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total St. Tammany Total Tangipahoa Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.37 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 40,611 39,654 -957 -2.4% 39,236 -1,375 -3.4% 40,096 -515 -1.3% 2021 41,764 39,673 -2,090 -5.0% 38,264 -3,499 -8.4% 41,271 -493 -1.2% 82,374 79,327 -3,048 -3.7% 77,500 -4,874 -5.9% 81,367 -1,008 -1.2% 2020 30,963 30,025 -938 -3.0% 29,680 -1,282 -4.1% 30,384 -579 -1.9% 2021 31,774 30,067 -1,706 -5.4% 28,991 -2,782 -8.8% 31,309 -465 -1.5% 62,736 60,092 -2,644 -4.2% 58,672 -4,065 -6.5% 61,693 -1,044 -1.7% 2020 53,216 51,389 -1,827 -3.4% 50,705 -2,511 -4.7% 52,103 -1,113 -2.1% 2021 54,747 51,457 -3,291 -6.0% 49,372 -5,376 -9.8% 53,952 -795 -1.5% 107,963 102,846 -5,118 -4.7% 100,076 -7,887 -7.3% 106,055 -1,909 -1.8% 2020 10,430 10,430 0 0.0% 10,430 0 0.0% 10,430 0 0.0% 2021 10,653 10,646 -6 -0.1% 10,644 -8 -0.1% 10,649 -4 0.0% Sheriff Total 21,083 21,076 -6 0.0% 21,075 -8 0.0% 21,079 -4 0.0% Tangipahoa Total 274,157 263,341 -10,816 -3.9% 257,323 -16,834 -6.1% 270,193 -3,964 -1.4% 2020 703 678 -24 -3.5% 673 -30 -4.3% 684 -19 -2.6% 2021 717 701 -16 -2.3% 692 -26 -3.6% 712 -6 -0.8% 1,420 1,379 -41 -2.9% 1,364 -56 -3.9% 1,396 -24 -1.7% 2020 3,212 3,100 -112 -3.5% 3,076 -135 -4.2% 3,124 -88 -2.7% 2021 3,247 3,141 -107 -3.3% 3,087 -160 -4.9% 3,187 -60 -1.9% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Tensas Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.38 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 6,459 6,241 -218 -3.4% 6,164 -295 -4.6% 6,311 -148 -2.3% 2020 2,731 2,677 -54 -2.0% 2,665 -66 -2.4% 2,689 -41 -1.5% 2021 2,759 2,719 -40 -1.4% 2,700 -59 -2.1% 2,746 -13 -0.5% 5,490 5,397 -94 -1.7% 5,365 -125 -2.3% 5,435 -55 -1.0% 2020 1,772 1,695 -77 -4.3% 1,677 -95 -5.4% 1,714 -58 -3.3% 2021 1,819 1,768 -51 -2.8% 1,739 -80 -4.4% 1,802 -17 -0.9% Par. Gov. Auth. Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Tensas Total 3,591 3,463 -128 -3.6% 3,416 -175 -4.9% 3,516 -75 -2.1% 16,960 16,480 -481 -2.8% 16,309 -651 -3.8% 16,658 -303 -1.8% 89,488 86,936 -2,552 -2.9% 86,285 -3,203 -3.6% 87,607 -1,881 -2.1% Terrebonne Par. Gov. Auth. 2020 2021 Par. Gov. Auth. Total 90,738 85,421 -5,317 -5.9% 82,453 -8,286 -9.1% 87,459 -3,279 -3.6% 180,227 172,357 -7,869 -4.4% 168,738 -11,489 -6.4% 175,066 -5,160 -2.9% 58,262 55,615 -2,646 -4.5% 54,862 -3,399 -5.8% 56,397 -1,864 -3.2% School Boards 2020 2021 58,528 52,891 -5,638 -9.6% 49,633 -8,896 -15.2% 55,474 -3,054 -5.2% 116,790 108,506 -8,284 -7.1% 104,495 -12,295 -10.5% 111,872 -4,918 -4.2% 2020 18,053 17,618 -434 -2.4% 17,497 -555 -3.1% 17,743 -309 -1.7% 2021 School Boards Total Sheriff 18,323 17,450 -873 -4.8% 16,965 -1,358 -7.4% 17,869 -455 -2.5% Sheriff Total 36,376 35,069 -1,307 -3.6% 34,463 -1,913 -5.3% 35,612 -764 -2.1% Terrebonne Total 333,393 315,932 -17,461 -5.2% 307,695 -25,698 -7.7% 322,550 -10,842 -3.3% Union Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.39 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 2,404 2,369 -35 -1.5% 2,349 -56 -2.3% 2,391 -13 -0.5% 2021 2,411 2,324 -87 -3.6% 2,262 -148 -6.2% 2,399 -12 -0.5% 4,815 4,693 -122 -2.5% 4,611 -204 -4.2% 4,790 -25 -0.5% 2020 5,572 5,471 -101 -1.8% 5,435 -136 -2.4% 5,507 -64 -1.2% 2021 5,552 5,379 -174 -3.1% 5,274 -278 -5.0% 5,491 -61 -1.1% 11,124 10,849 -275 -2.5% 10,709 -415 -3.7% 10,998 -125 -1.1% 2020 9,990 9,772 -218 -2.2% 9,685 -305 -3.1% 9,863 -127 -1.3% 2021 10,014 9,650 -365 -3.6% 9,422 -593 -5.9% 9,948 -66 -0.7% 20,005 19,422 -583 -2.9% 19,107 -898 -4.5% 19,811 -193 -1.0% 2020 4,142 4,058 -84 -2.0% 4,029 -113 -2.7% 4,088 -54 -1.3% 2021 4,152 4,030 -122 -2.9% 3,959 -193 -4.6% 4,127 -25 -0.6% 8,294 8,088 -206 -2.5% 7,987 -306 -3.7% 8,215 -79 -1.0% 44,237 43,052 -1,185 -2.7% 42,414 -1,823 -4.1% 43,815 -422 -1.0% 2020 6,912 6,726 -186 -2.7% 6,656 -256 -3.7% 6,800 -112 -1.6% 2021 6,971 6,480 -491 -7.0% 6,161 -810 -11.6% 6,694 -276 -4.0% 13,883 13,206 -677 -4.9% 12,817 -1,066 -7.7% 13,494 -389 -2.8% 2020 18,147 17,596 -551 -3.0% 17,425 -722 -4.0% 17,773 -374 -2.1% 2021 18,216 17,035 -1,182 -6.5% 16,317 -1,900 -10.4% 17,527 -689 -3.8% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Union Total Vermilion Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.40 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 36,363 34,631 -1,733 -4.8% 33,742 -2,621 -7.2% 35,301 -1,063 -2.9% 2020 22,818 22,373 -444 -1.9% 22,224 -594 -2.6% 22,529 -289 -1.3% 2021 22,707 21,772 -935 -4.1% 21,203 -1,504 -6.6% 22,238 -469 -2.1% 45,525 44,145 -1,380 -3.0% 43,427 -2,098 -4.6% 44,767 -758 -1.7% 2020 8,384 8,207 -178 -2.1% 8,152 -233 -2.8% 8,263 -122 -1.5% 2021 8,318 8,018 -300 -3.6% 7,848 -470 -5.6% 8,190 -128 -1.5% Par. Gov. Auth. Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Vermilion Total 16,702 16,225 -478 -2.9% 16,000 -702 -4.2% 16,453 -250 -1.5% 112,474 108,206 -4,268 -3.8% 105,986 -6,488 -5.8% 110,015 -2,459 -2.2% 6,095 5,970 -125 -2.1% 5,938 -157 -2.6% 6,006 -89 -1.5% Vernon Municipalities 2020 2021 6,113 5,814 -299 -4.9% 5,669 -445 -7.3% 5,989 -125 -2.0% 12,209 11,784 -424 -3.5% 11,607 -602 -4.9% 11,995 -214 -1.8% 2020 15,919 15,474 -446 -2.8% 15,371 -548 -3.4% 15,583 -336 -2.1% 2021 15,923 15,124 -800 -5.0% 14,749 -1,175 -7.4% 15,566 -358 -2.2% 31,843 30,598 -1,245 -3.9% 30,120 -1,723 -5.4% 31,149 -694 -2.2% 2020 19,658 19,114 -544 -2.8% 18,986 -672 -3.4% 19,251 -407 -2.1% 2021 19,753 18,818 -934 -4.7% 18,389 -1,363 -6.9% 19,383 -370 -1.9% 39,411 37,932 -1,478 -3.8% 37,375 -2,036 -5.2% 38,634 -777 -2.0% 5,933 5,801 -132 -2.2% 5,770 -163 -2.7% 5,834 -99 -1.7% Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff 2020 Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.41 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 5,970 5,747 -223 -3.7% 5,645 -325 -5.4% 5,882 -88 -1.5% 11,904 11,549 -355 -3.0% 11,416 -488 -4.1% 11,717 -187 -1.6% 95,366 91,863 -3,502 -3.7% 90,517 -4,848 -5.1% 93,494 -1,871 -2.0% 2020 14,264 14,100 -164 -1.1% 13,961 -303 -2.1% 14,247 -17 -0.1% 2021 14,526 14,022 -504 -3.5% 13,604 -922 -6.3% 14,515 -10 -0.1% 28,790 28,122 -668 -2.3% 27,565 -1,225 -4.3% 28,762 -28 -0.1% 2020 11,931 11,659 -272 -2.3% 11,532 -398 -3.3% 11,789 -142 -1.2% 2021 12,161 11,685 -476 -3.9% 11,357 -803 -6.6% 12,110 -50 -0.4% 24,091 23,344 -747 -3.1% 22,889 -1,202 -5.0% 23,899 -192 -0.8% 2020 17,541 17,288 -253 -1.4% 17,153 -387 -2.2% 17,427 -114 -0.6% 2021 17,851 17,347 -503 -2.8% 16,983 -868 -4.9% 17,807 -43 -0.2% 35,392 34,635 -756 -2.1% 34,136 -1,255 -3.5% 35,234 -157 -0.4% 2020 4,853 4,775 -78 -1.6% 4,730 -123 -2.5% 4,821 -32 -0.7% 2021 4,940 4,775 -165 -3.3% 4,653 -287 -5.8% 4,928 -12 -0.2% Sheriff Total 9,793 9,550 -243 -2.5% 9,383 -410 -4.2% 9,749 -45 -0.5% Washington Total 98,066 95,651 -2,415 -2.5% 93,974 -4,092 -4.2% 97,645 -421 -0.4% 2020 11,075 10,682 -392 -3.5% 10,554 -521 -4.7% 10,817 -258 -2.3% 2021 11,269 10,531 -738 -6.5% 10,085 -1,183 -10.5% 10,953 -315 -2.8% 2021 Sheriff Total Vernon Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Washington Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Webster Municipalities Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.42 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 22,343 21,213 -1,130 -5.1% 20,640 -1,704 -7.6% 21,771 -573 -2.6% 2020 9,417 9,258 -159 -1.7% 9,216 -201 -2.1% 9,303 -114 -1.2% 2021 9,283 8,918 -364 -3.9% 8,699 -584 -6.3% 9,032 -251 -2.7% 18,700 18,176 -523 -2.8% 17,914 -785 -4.2% 18,335 -365 -1.9% 2020 26,148 25,436 -712 -2.7% 25,219 -929 -3.6% 25,661 -487 -1.9% 2021 26,367 25,178 -1,189 -4.5% 24,499 -1,868 -7.1% 25,888 -479 -1.8% 52,515 50,615 -1,901 -3.6% 49,718 -2,797 -5.3% 51,549 -966 -1.8% 2020 5,612 5,435 -177 -3.2% 5,379 -234 -4.2% 5,494 -118 -2.1% 2021 5,687 5,368 -319 -5.6% 5,179 -508 -8.9% 5,553 -134 -2.4% Municipalities Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total 11,300 10,803 -496 -4.4% 10,558 -742 -6.6% 11,048 -252 -2.2% 104,858 100,808 -4,050 -3.9% 98,830 -6,028 -5.7% 102,703 -2,155 -2.1% 2020 4,847 4,718 -130 -2.7% 4,680 -167 -3.4% 4,760 -88 -1.8% 2021 4,805 4,445 -360 -7.5% 4,266 -539 -11.2% 4,666 -139 -2.9% 9,653 9,163 -490 -5.1% 8,947 -706 -7.3% 9,426 -227 -2.4% 2020 21,858 21,282 -576 -2.6% 21,136 -722 -3.3% 21,438 -420 -1.9% 2021 22,264 21,046 -1,218 -5.5% 20,462 -1,802 -8.1% 21,753 -511 -2.3% 44,122 42,328 -1,794 -4.1% 41,598 -2,524 -5.7% 43,191 -931 -2.1% 32,735 32,017 -718 -2.2% 31,842 -893 -2.7% 32,207 -528 -1.6% Webster Total West Baton Rouge Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards 2020 Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.43 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 33,437 31,927 -1,510 -4.5% 31,224 -2,214 -6.6% 32,832 -605 -1.8% 66,172 63,944 -2,228 -3.4% 63,066 -3,106 -4.7% 65,039 -1,133 -1.7% 2020 7,447 7,447 0 0.0% 7,447 0 0.0% 7,447 0 0.0% 2021 7,873 7,862 -11 -0.1% 7,858 -15 -0.2% 7,867 -6 -0.1% 15,321 15,309 -11 -0.1% 15,306 -15 -0.1% 15,314 -6 0.0% 135,268 130,745 -4,523 -3.3% 128,916 -6,352 -4.7% 132,970 -2,298 -1.7% 2020 1,549 1,529 -20 -1.3% 1,518 -31 -2.0% 1,540 -9 -0.6% 2021 1,548 1,503 -46 -3.0% 1,471 -77 -5.0% 1,539 -9 -0.6% 3,097 3,031 -66 -2.1% 2,989 -108 -3.5% 3,079 -18 -0.6% 2020 3,723 3,570 -154 -4.1% 3,524 -199 -5.4% 3,616 -107 -2.9% 2021 3,724 3,535 -189 -5.1% 3,434 -289 -7.8% 3,676 -48 -1.3% 7,447 7,104 -343 -4.6% 6,959 -489 -6.6% 7,292 -155 -2.1% 2020 4,389 4,273 -116 -2.6% 4,235 -154 -3.5% 4,313 -76 -1.7% 2021 4,419 4,258 -161 -3.6% 4,166 -253 -5.7% 4,380 -39 -0.9% 8,808 8,532 -277 -3.1% 8,402 -407 -4.6% 8,693 -115 -1.3% 2020 846 846 0 0.0% 846 0 0.0% 846 0 0.0% 2021 877 877 0 0.0% 876 0 -0.1% 877 0 0.0% 1,723 1,722 0 0.0% 1,722 0 0.0% 1,722 0 0.0% 21,075 20,389 -686 -3.3% 20,072 -1,004 -4.8% 20,786 -289 -1.4% 2021 School Boards Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) Sheriff Sheriff Total West Baton Rouge Total West Carroll Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total West Carroll Total Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.44 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 2020 1,800 1,766 -34 -1.9% 1,754 -46 -2.6% 1,779 -20 -1.1% 2021 1,995 1,888 -107 -5.4% 1,829 -166 -8.3% 1,958 -37 -1.9% 3,794 3,654 -141 -3.7% 3,583 -212 -5.6% 3,737 -58 -1.5% 2020 8,593 8,458 -135 -1.6% 8,421 -172 -2.0% 8,497 -96 -1.1% 2021 9,482 9,217 -266 -2.8% 9,083 -399 -4.2% 9,387 -95 -1.0% 18,075 17,675 -400 -2.2% 17,504 -571 -3.2% 17,885 -191 -1.1% 2020 20,286 20,023 -262 -1.3% 19,941 -345 -1.7% 20,113 -173 -0.9% 2021 22,419 21,759 -660 -2.9% 21,410 -1,009 -4.5% 22,192 -228 -1.0% 42,705 41,783 -922 -2.2% 41,350 -1,355 -3.2% 42,305 -400 -0.9% 2020 5,254 5,254 0 0.0% 5,254 0 0.0% 5,254 0 0.0% 2021 5,790 5,789 -1 0.0% 5,789 -1 0.0% 5,790 0 0.0% Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) West Feliciana Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. Par. Gov. Auth. Total School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total 11,044 11,044 -1 0.0% 11,044 -1 0.0% 11,044 0 0.0% 75,619 74,155 -1,464 -1.9% 73,481 -2,139 -2.8% 74,971 -649 -0.9% 2020 1,722 1,685 -38 -2.2% 1,671 -51 -3.0% 1,699 -23 -1.3% 2021 1,785 1,690 -95 -5.3% 1,637 -147 -8.2% 1,749 -36 -2.0% 3,507 3,374 -133 -3.8% 3,309 -198 -5.7% 3,448 -59 -1.7% 6,381 6,230 -151 -2.4% 6,187 -195 -3.0% 6,277 -105 -1.6% West Feliciana Total Winn Municipalities Municipalities Total Par. Gov. Auth. 2020 Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.45 Effect of COVID-19 on Local Government Revenues Scenario Parish Entity Type Fiscal Year Baseline (Without COVID) Appendix C Average Scenario (With COVID) Pessimistic Scenario (With COVID) Revenue ($) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) 6,731 6,407 -325 -4.8% 6,234 -497 -7.4% 6,574 -157 -2.3% 13,113 12,637 -476 -3.6% 12,421 -692 -5.3% 12,851 -262 -2.0% 2020 7,613 7,439 -175 -2.3% 7,386 -227 -3.0% 7,495 -118 -1.6% 2021 7,817 7,480 -337 -4.3% 7,305 -512 -6.6% 7,696 -121 -1.6% 15,431 14,919 -512 -3.3% 14,691 -739 -4.8% 15,191 -240 -1.6% 2020 2,654 2,603 -51 -1.9% 2,587 -67 -2.5% 2,621 -33 -1.2% 2021 2,726 2,616 -110 -4.0% 2,557 -169 -6.2% 2,685 -40 -1.5% 5,380 5,219 -161 -3.0% 5,143 -236 -4.4% 5,306 -74 -1.4% 37,430 36,149 -1,281 -3.4% 35,564 -1,866 -5.0% 36,796 -634 -1.7% 17,750,393 16,962,942 -787,451 -4.4% 16,611,721 -1,138,672 -6.4% 17,345,709 -404,684 -2.3% 2021 Par. Gov. Auth. Total Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Optimistic Scenario (With COVID) Effect of COVID (%) Revenue ($) Effect of COVID ($) Effect of COVID (%) School Boards School Boards Total Sheriff Sheriff Total Winn Total Grand Total Source: Prepared by legislative auditor’s staff using data sources summarized in Appendix A. Note: Parish Governing Authorities abbreviated Par. Gov. Auth. Dollar Amounts in Thousands. C.46