Labor Market Update May 2020:
Impacts of COVID-19 to-date

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www.wrksolutions.com  1.888.469.JOBS (5627)

Workforce Solutions is an equal opportunity employer/program. Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities. 
(Please request reasonable accommodations 48 hours in advance.) Relay Texas: 1.800.735.2989 (TDD) 1.800.735.2988 (voice) or 711

 Topics
• Unemployment Rates
• Unemployment Insurance Claims
• Job Ads

2
Gulf Coast Workforce Board

 Fort Bend County Unemployment Rates & Unemployed
Persons (NSA)
6.0
February vs. March 2020
RULE OF
200,000

+1.2 ppts

5.0

4.0

3.9

5.1

+43,000
Unemployed Persons
+31%
Unemployed Persons 181,000

3.0

THUMB:180,000
1 ppt
increase 160,000
=
36,000140,000
additional
unemployed
120,000
100,000

80,000

2.0

138,000

1.0

Tied with May ‘09
for largest 1 month
increase on record

60,000

40,000

20,000

0.0
3

0

February 2020

March 2020

 13-County Unemployment Rate (NSA)
1990-2020
10.0

Jan-10
8.7

9.0
8.0

Shale
boom
$100 oil
Mar-14

7.0
6.0

5.5

5.3

Mar-20
5.1

5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Source: TWC/BLS

4

NBER National
Recession
Shale Bust
Unemployment
Rate

Apr-19
3.3

 13-County Gulf Coast Region Unemployment Rates March
2020
Walk
er
5.2
Montgome
ry
4.7
Aust
in
4.8
Lowest
unemployment
rate in region
45% of time past
30 years

5

Source: TWC/BLS

Colora
do
4.4

Highest
unemployment
rate in region
90% of time past
30 years

Walle
r
5.1

Harris
5.2
Fort
Bend
4.6

Whart
on
4.8
Matagord
a
7.2

Brazori
a
5.7

Libert
y
7.3
Chambe
rs
6.2

Galvesto
n
5.2

13-County
Gulf Coast
Average:
5.1

 13-County Gulf Coast Cities Unemployment Rates March
2020
Huntsville:
6.0
•

Conroe:
4.8
•

Sugar
Land:
4.2

Missouri
City:
Houston:
5.2
5.0
•

Rosenbe
rg:
5.1

6

Source: TWC/BLS
*Note: unemployment rates available for only the 17

Lowest
unemployment
rate in region
50% of time past
30 years

Pearlan
d:
4.0
Friendswo
od:
Alvin:
4.5
Lake
5.2
Jackso
n:

Baytow
n:
10.2
Deer
Park:
5.5
La
Pasaden Porte:
5.8
a:
6.9
Texas
City:
Leagu 7.1
e City:
4.1
Galvesto
n:

Highest
unemployment
rate in region
83% of time past
30 years

13-County
Gulf Coast
Average:
5.1

 So where might the
unemployment rate be headed?

13-County Region Cumulative Initial Unemployment
Insurance Claims
Week of March 7 to May 2
If all are counted
as unemployed
= 15.2%
unemployment 356,439

450,000
400,000
350,000

402,841

313,972

300,000

255,425

250,000

195,428

200,000
Source: Texas Workforce Commission

150,000

118,429

100,000

51,125

50,000
0

8

4,206

9,074

3/7/2020

3/14/2020

3/21/2020

3/28/2020

4/4/2020

4/11/2020

4/18/2020

4/25/2020

5/2/2020

 13-County Region Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance
Claims
90,000
Week of March 7Week-over-week
to Maychange
2 in
880%

76,999

80,000

claims falling 3
consecutive weeks

780%

67,304

70,000

59,997

60,000

Possible
plateau?

58,547

680%

580%

480%

50,000

42,467

42,051

46,402
380%

40,000
280%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission

30,000

180%

20,000
10,000
0

9

80%

16%
4,206
3/7/2020

14%
764%
4,868

3/14/2020

-22%

60%

3/21/2020

-2%

3/28/2020

4/4/2020

4/11/2020

-27%

4/18/2020

-20%

9%

4/25/2020

5/2/2020

-120%

 13-County Region Unique Active Job Ads as of 4/26

94,000

-34% or -48,000 year over year
Source:
EMSI

10

 Gulf Coast Region Month over Month % Change in No. of Job Ads by Sector
(April, 27 2020 to March, 28 2020 over March, 27 2020 to February, 26 2020)
Educational Services (61)
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (11)
Public Administration (92)
Finance and Insurance (52)
Information (51)
Retail Trade (44)
Management of Companies and Enterprises (55)
Utilities (22)
Health Care and Social Assistance (62)
Manufacturing (31)
All Sectors (from first 1,000 employers by # job ads regardless of sector)
Transportation and Warehousing (48)
Admin. and Support and Waste Mgmt. and Remediation Services (56)
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (54)
Accommodation and Food Services (72)
Other Services (except Public Administration) (81)
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing (53)
Wholesale Trade (42)
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction (21)
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (71)
Construction (23) -56%
Unclassified (99) -56%

-13%
-14%
-17%
-18%
-20%
-20%
-23%
-23%
-24%
-24%
-24%
-26%
-26%
-27%
-27%
-28%
-31%
-32%
-33%
-43%

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (11)

-32

Management of Companies and Enterprises (55)

-118

Utilities (22)

-280

Public Administration (92)

-458

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (71)

-515

Educational Services (61)

-653

Information (51)

-791

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction (21)

-803

Unclassified (99)

-882

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing (53)

-1,038

Wholesale Trade (42)

-1,080

Other Services (except Public Administration) (81)

-1,103

Finance and Insurance (52)

-1,342

Transportation and Warehousing (48)

-2,128

Manufacturing (31)

-2,723

Accommodation and Food Services (72)

-3,367

Retail Trade (44)

-3,925

Health Care and Social Assistance (62)

-4,012

Construction (23)

-4,386

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (54)
-65% -55% -45% -35% -25% -15% -5% 5%
Admin. and Support and Waste Mgmt. and Remediation Services (56) -6,130

Source:
EMSI

11

-4,616

-6,000

-4,500

Must look at individual companies to answer “who’s hiring”

-3,000

-1,500

0

 13-County Region Occupations with Increase in Job Ads
(April, 27 2020 to March, 28 2020 over March, 27 2020 to February, 26 2020)
10.0

9.1

8.7

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0
0.7

Camera Operators, Television, Video, & Motion
Picture
Interpreters & Translators
Writers & Authors
Photographers
Film & Video Editors
Editors
Multimedia Artists & Animators1.3

0.0

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.1

0.1

0.4
-1.4

-2.0

-1.7

-2.3

-4.0

-3.7

-6.0

-8.0

12

Source:
EMSI

-1.3

-1.0

-1.4

-0.4

Family & General Practitioners
Surgeons
Physicians & Surgeons, All Other
Anesthesiologists
Psychiatrists
Obstetricians & Gynecologists
Internists, General
Respiratory Therapists
Radiation Therapists
Veterinary Technologists &
Technicians
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.7
0.0
Orthodontists
-0.9

-1.2
-1.8

-0.4

-0.6

1.0

-1.3

Computer Network Architects
Computer Occupations, All Other
Operations Research Analysts
Software Developers, Applications
Computer Programmers
Computer and Information Research Scientists
Computer User Support Specialists
Information Security Analysts
Computer Systems Analysts
Database Administrators
Computer Network Support Specialists Web Developers
Network & Computer Systems Admins.
Software Developers, Systems Software

0.3

-0.7
0.4

-0.4

1.8

1.6

-0.1

0.2

-0.2
-0.8

-0.4
-1.0

 Recap
• March unemployment rate below average in historical terms
but already showing Great Recession-level impacts
• Potential rise in unemployment rate to 10% to 15% in April or
May based on initial UI claims since early March
• 94,000 active unique job ads in region at present
• Job ads indicate pull-back in hiring across all major sectors
with any increases in hiring specific to individual employers
• Increased hiring for occupations limited to
media/communications and specialist physicians while ITrelated show disproportionate retreat
13

 Thank You!

Parker A. Harvey
Principal Economist
Gulf Coast Workforce Board/Workforce
Solutions
713-993-2462
parker.harvey@wrksolutions.com

 Gulf Coast WDA – WARN Notice Layoffs
Jan 2011 to Apr 2020

6,000

Haliburton accounts for
Mar-20
5,420
3,500 of the total 5,420
reported layoffs/furloughs
in March 2020
(reported to end 6
weeks from WARN notice date)

5,000

4,000

3,000

Oct-15
1,823

2,000
Apr-14
1,202

1,000

0

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

15

Jun-16
1,795
May-18
1,340

 Texas Workforce Development Areas – WARN Notice Layoffs
March 2019 vs. March 2020
Mar-20

168

0

5,420

1,000

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

16

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

 13-County Gulf Coast Region Unemployment Rates March
2020 4.4
Colorado
Fort Bend
Montgomery

4.7

Wharton

4.8

Austin

4.8

Waller

5.1

Gulf Coast

5.1

Harris

5.2

Walker

5.2

Galveston
Brazoria
Chambers
Matagorda
Liberty
17

4.6

2nd lowest
unemploymen
t rate among
13 county
region as of
March 2020

5.3
5.7
6.2
7.2
7.3

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

 13-County Gulf Coast Cities Unemployment Rates March
2020
Pearland
4.0
League City
Sugar Land
Friendswood
Conroe
Houston
Rosenberg
Gulf Coast
Missouri City
Alvin
Galveston
Deer Park
La Porte
Huntsville
Pasadena
Lake Jackson
Texas City
Baytown
0.0

18

Rates among
cities partially
or completely
within Fort
Bend are
mostly at or
below average

4.1
4.2
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.5
5.8
6.0
6.9
7.0
7.1

10.2
2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

 13-County Gulf Coast Region Daily Active Job Ads
March 1st - April 26th 2019 vs. 2020
Apr 26
141,944

150,000

140,000
Mar

1
131,960
Mar 30
131,354

130,000

Net Change:
-48,276
Percent
Change:
-34%

Mar 1
129,865

120,000

110,000

100,000

90,000
Source: EMSI

19

Active Job Postings 2020
Active Job Postings 2019

Apr 26
93,668