DRAF T Analysis of Rental Survey, Evictions, and Unemployment ESF-14 Housing Group Prepared by Mohit Agrawal, OTG 1 Two Approaches DRAF T • Study the relationship between eviction rates and unemployment • Eviction rates: data from Princeton’s Eviction Lab • Unemployment: initial claims from CTDOL • Survey of residential landlords • Asked about characteristics of the landlord, impact of COVID on their tenants and their businesses, change in collection rates, and change in eviction rates 2 Eviction Rates and Unemployment 45 40 I Evictions/month per 10,000 rental units 35 Graph of Eviction Rate and Initial Claims 0 oo (O .02 I I 2005m1 Connecticut I 2015m1 month 2010m1 0 Initial Claims month 0 Eviction filings month Initial claims for UI/month, as proportion of labor force I 2020m1 Landlord Survey DRAF T • Strong response: • Survey had 428 valid responses • Responses represented 41470 units, 8.8% of total • Survey responses were representative: • 37.7% of units in Bridgeport, Danbury, Hartford, New Haven, or Waterbury • Median prices: $791, $950, $1200, $1361 • % of units: 10% studio, 49% 1-bedroom • Units/building: median of 6.3, average 31.6 • % respondents with < 5 units: 26% 4 Landlord Survey: Collections DRAF T • April 2019: 95.2% • April 2020: 82.9% • Year 2019: 95.2% • Year 2020 (average): 87.8% • Year 2020 (best): 78.8% • Year 2020 (worst): 91.8% • Change: -8.4pp 5 Landlord Survey: Evictions • Year • Year • Year • Year DRAF T 2019: 4.0% 2020 (average): 7.2% 2020 (best): 4.3% 2020 (worst): 12.7% • Change: 3.2pp 6 Landlord Survey: Evictions Lowess smoother rate_evictions change rate_evictions_201 9 bandwidth .8 7 Landlord Survey: Evictions Lowess smoother rate evictions 0 change and ord_size bandwidth .8 Connect? 8 Landlord Survey: Evictions Lowess smoother change_in_collections bandwidth .8 9 Landlord Survey: Evictions Lowess smoother scale of 1 to 10, how detrimental has been to your business in Con bandwidth .8 lo