Memorandum Date: June 18, 2020 To: Andrew Romanoff for Senate Campaign From: Andrew Myers Status of the Contest – Week 3 Massive Shift in Colorado’s Senate Race There is nothing but good news for Andrew Romanoff as he enters the final stretch of the campaign for U.S. Senate, according to the results of our recent survey of 500 likely Democratic primary voters1. As the survey makes clear, there is a reason why national Democrats are rushing to spend millions of dollars on commercials to try to save their candidate John Hickenlooper. The reason is that Hickenlooper’s “bad month” (as the media has labeled it), coupled with Romanoff’s introduction of himself to this electorate, has created a seismic shift in the fundamentals of this contest. According to internal campaign polling, today, Romanoff has closed the gap: Hickenlooper’s vote share has dropped precipitously to just 51 percent while Romanoff has grown to 39 percent, a +37 point net shift toward Romanoff since October 2019. It is clear that Hickenlooper is in a free fall and has lost the momentum of this contest. Indeed, for all intents and purposes, Hickenlooper is essentially the incumbent in this race, and any incumbent hovering at bare majority status is in very serious trouble. Underscoring the success of Romanoff’s introduction and the depth of the bad month for Hickenlooper are the trends we see in media penetration. A majority (54 percent) report seeing or hearing information about Romanoff over the past several weeks and by a 22-point margin, these voters say it has made them more likely to support him (38 percent more likely, 16 percent less likely). For Hickenlooper the trend is far different - 71 percent report having seen or heard something about him, and by just a 2-point margin, say it has made them more likely to support him (37 percent more, 35 percent less). Again, terrible news for Hickenlooper and his campaign. When voters are read a paragraph simulating the television spots currently on the air, the contest shifts even more dramatically moving it to Romanoff’s favor, putting him at 48 percent to Hickenlooper’s 42 percent. Again, a terrible sign indeed for Hickenlooper as he enters the final stretch of this race. The bottom line here is that Romanoff has seized the momentum, and he is well positioned to pull off a remarkable upset in this contest. As this campaign has moved forward and voters have learned more about Hickenlooper, as well as the choice they have with Romanoff, Hickenlooper has lost very serious ground and fallen into the danger zone for a politician as well-known as he is. Romanoff will need to continue to introduce himself and his vision for Colorado and the nation while also reminding voters of Hickenlooper’s failings and his reticence to even want the job of serving in the Senate. Should Romanoff keep the momentum he clearly has today, this is likely to be a stunning upset. 1 Myers Research designed and administered this telephone survey conducted by professional interviewers. Calling took place June 16-17, 2020 and the survey reached 500 registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters, 18 years of age or older, who indicated they were almost certain or would probably vote in Colorado’s Democratic primary. Thirty-eight percent of interviews were conducted on landline telephones, 62 percent were conducted on cell phones. The margin of error associated with these data at a 95 percent confidence level is +/-4.4. The margin of error for subgroups is greater and varies. Status of Colorado’s U.S. Senate Contest 2 About Myers Research Myers Research is a national public opinion research firm specializing in electing progressive candidates at every level, from school board to President. In Colorado, Myers Research has served as the pollster to the Colorado House Democratic Caucus for 18 years running, flipping that chamber from Republican to Democratic control first in 2004 and again in 2012 after the devastating elections in 2010. Today, House Democrats enjoy their largest majority they have held at any time in Colorado history. Myers Research has also worked on U.S. Senate, Congressional and Presidential elections in Colorado and throughout the nation, as well as working on a host of ballot measures and local contests in the state as well. Indeed, the company has conducted tens of thousands of survey interviews in the state each year. Nationally Myers Research is the nation’s leading public opinion research firm focused on state- level politics. To date, they have helped to flip control of 18 state legislative chambers from red to blue, the most of any pollster in the nation, and their clients have prevailed in 12 out of 14 contests for Governor. They have won every ballot measure campaign for which they have been engaged, from passing hundreds of billions in new bonding to legalizing medical and recreational marijuana in several states. They count more than 400 Democratic officeholders as clients. Based in Virginia’s Northern Neck, they also have offices in Washington, D.C. and New York.