;

EXON

CORPORATION
Sc,ence & Tcchn() 09y Depanmenr

]251 AVENUE OF THE AMI RICAS. NEW YORK, N Y ]OO2O

W

R ECKELMANN

DcpJIy M.r^ase,

January 29, 1980
Exxonts View and Pogltion
on "Greenhouse EffecE"

Mr. M. E. J.orloughlin
Exxon Corp.
L2 / 5].06

- Directors

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Dear Morey:

to Your lnquiry abou! Exxonrs position and actlvity
This letEer is in resPonse
in connection wlth the I'greenhouse effect.rl
Sclence Q Technology f eel-s that the build-uP of carbon dioxide in the atmosPhere
ls a pot6ntially serlous Problem requiring the results of a huge worl-dwide
research effort before quantitative Predictlons can be reached on the Probabilities and ti,roing of worl-d clirnate changes' We feel that the magnitude of
the research effort required is beyond the resources and responsibility of any
single corupany or industry' and must be addressed by the conbined coordinated
efforts of goverruuen!, industries and academia.

the Office of CO2 Effects' is trying to provide this coordinaplus
a focus for data syntheais and anal-ysis for the national- and lntertion
projects
underway. A centraL objectlve of the Offlce of C02 Effects
natlonal
is to provide predictlons for government Pollcy-making. The objective of
Exxonrs current research Program in this area ls to play a Prominent role in
critlcal- components of the research prograrn, actively follow the resul-ts of the
overall program and to critical-ly evaluate predlctions of CO2 effects as they
are developed. Science & Technol-ogy DePartment feels that this ls the Proper

The DOE, through

stance for Exxon at this tine. We supPort CorPorate funding of this effort.
The following paragraphs and attactunent provlde some additlonal background on
rrha t is known about the CO2 effect and.Exxonrs PartlclPatlon in the research
program,

ReliabLe data shon that CO2 ln the atmosphere has increased approximatel-y 52
since 1957 and 1t 1s thought that this is due !o fossil fuel burning and forest
clearing. This increase represeots about 50% of the C02 generated by fossll
fuel combustion or from 50-2502 of the CO2 released by forest cutting and
burnlng. However, the relative contrlbutlon of each of these sources is not
accurately known or even that they are the rnaJor reason for the lncreases in
atmospheric CO2. In addltion, the uLtlxoate dlsposltlon of the C02 that does
not remaln ln the atmosphere ls not knoh'n, although nost authorlties agree that
the oceans are the probable sink.

 -2that need to be answered ln a more definitive way in order
of lncreaslng CO2 concentratlons are: flrst' what
evaluate
the
slgnlflcance
to
is the contrlbutlon of foss11 fuel cornbustlon emlsslons to the atnospherlc CO2
bulld-up; second, what happens to the CO2 that does not rerain ln the atmosPhere;
and thlrd, how w111 the continued lncreases of C02 ln the atmosPhere affect the

The rnaJor questlons

world cllmate?

Exxon Research 6 Engtneertng Conpany has an ongolng Exxon funded $600k Per year
research program to help determlne whether rhe Prlnary cause of atmosPheric C02
is from fossil fuel or frorn forest clearlng and to estlmate the net global CO2
flux into the oceans, This program ls sunnarlzed ln the attached letter from
E. E. David, Jr. to George T. Plercy. In addltlon, Exxon is helplng to fund
tlto outside research organizatlons working on the C02 effect at aPProxlnately
$20k each per year. One is the Marlne Biologtcal Lab at Woods Hole' investigating
the overall CO2 effecr wlth emphasis on forest clearing and the other ls the
Sclentlfic CoEmltiee on Problems of the Environrnent (SCoPE), studylng the
effects of fossil fuel ernissions and other changes on g1oba1 cllnate and the
life support systen.

to understand the "greenhouse effect" is a very
being
conducted on an international scale Prinarily
large, eornplex undertaking,
In
early 1978, Exxon Research & Engineering considered
with government funding.
an independent research program but concluded that the amount of efforL required
and the scope of disciplines lnvolved nade lt impractlcal for a slngle instltution
to attack this problem alone. Instead' it was dectded to use Exxonrs unique
resources to research crttical comPonents of the overall program and to follow
research being conducted by others through ParticiPatlon ln semlnars, steerlng
committees and government research actlvitj.es. In addltlon, Sclence & Technology
feels that lt is desirable to obtain the consulting servJ.ces of a world recognized
expert in this area. As a resul-t, we are formulaiing a consulcing agreement
with Professor W, S, Broecker of Columbla Unlverslty. He conslder hlm the most
outstandlng researcher, actively invoLved ln studying the carbon dloxide problen.
The research program necessary

Science & Technology feels that Elo<onrs actlve ParticiPatlon ln the international
research program, plus the servlces of Professor Broecker, Position us to
assess the signlflcance of the CoZ 'rgreenhouse effect" as soon as the required
research results become available and to critically evaluate concl-usions drawn
from the program which might be blased for politlcal or other reasons. We
recomend continuation of our current Progran of sel-ected research Projects in
crttical areas of thls compl-ex question supplenented by consulting advlse fron
highly respected experts.
would be glad to arrange a technical revlew of the CO2 I'greenhouse effect"
and the Exxon funded research prograns lf you so desire.

We

Very

truly

yours,

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WRE:

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cc

cc: (w/aet.) E. E. David, Jr., A, M. Natkln, g.

bcc: (w/att.) P. J, Lucchesi, tt. N,

Wetnberg

Stamas, G.

T, Ptercy

 ExoN
EOWARO E.

Prctld.nt

iliiiiY

A!::)t

N FC;ii'iATi0N
For Authorizod Company Uoo OnU

PROPRi

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PO. AOX IOI, TLORHAN4 PARK. NEW JERSEY O7932

DAVIO.

T.lophon.: 20! _765_1257

JN.

RE
November

iJ'

RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING COMPANY

9,

1979

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V/. li.

gtr!;
Mr. George T. Piercy

Senior Vice -President
Exxon Corporation
I2 5l Avenue of Americas
New York, New York

Dear George:
This eighth in our series of President's Letters outlines work we have initiated to
help evlluate the so-called r'greenhouse effect" -- a polential future global warming
caused by the accumulation of CO2 in the aLmosphere. The "greenhouse effectrr is
receiving widespread attention, based in Part on dramatic claims and dire
predictions that are appearing in the popular press. It is being cited, for instance,
as an argument in opposition to any major U.S- synfuels program. Good, solid data
are sorely needed, along with better climatological models. The work we have
initiated to date should help provide a small part of the data. It focuses on past
and future growth of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, rather than on the resulting
effect of CO2 on climate. Our data could well influence fxxon's view about the
long-term attiactiveness of coal and synthetics relative to nuclear and solar enefgy.
ER&E'S''GREENHOUSE EFFECT'' PROGRAM

The Knowns and the Unknowns

It is known that the CO2 content of the atmosphere is increasing' Hard data are
available from an atmospheric monitoring program begun in I957. It has been

assumed that the increase began coincidentally with the lndustrial Revolution in the
middle of the last century. Two sources of CO2 are believed responsible:
combustion of fossil fuels, and the clearing of virgin forests. The latter results in
less photosynthetic uptake of CO2 as well as formation of more CO2 through
oxidation of the cleared biomass. Evidence for the relative contribution of each of
these sources is larqely missing. I

ffiossilfuelscouldincreasedrama!icallyoverthenext50

years while additional forest clearing is inherently far more limited.

It

is also known that the amount of CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere is less than

the amount released by fossil fuel combustion alone. That means a very large
amount of CO2 is being absorbed from the atmosphere, The ocean acts as the

.
(

 -2ma,ior net coz absorber. The ultimate capacity of the ocsan to store co2 far
exiecds any projected COz production, but it is known that mass transfer from the
aLmosphere into'the deep ocean controls the rate at which co2 can be absorbed.
Srrfficientlv accrrrate ouantiative measures of the mass transfer characteristics are
to-calculale net projccted oceanic CO2 absorption
ffi
;ates analfius lhe residual atmospheric CO2 accumulation resulting from any
projected CO2 production'
I

Fossil Fuels

or Forest

Clearing?

,!---'t-

"-"9a

'

we expect to establish the contribution of each of the trvo possible sources to the
annual increment of atmospheric CO2 by meastrring the carbon isotope ratios in a
series of vintage wines, carbon-fourtcen (c-14) is :rn unstable isotope created from
nitroqen in thJ atmosphere by cosmic radiation or nuclear explosions. The C-I4 is
captu-rcd by oxyqen io form C02. Through plr,t,syntlrcsis, it is .incorporated -along rvilh ifru ntotrt" isotopes of iarbon -- in all grovring matter' Horvever, as C14 h-as a half-life of only 5570 years, it has virtually disappcared frcm-all fossil
fuels. Thus, rvhile CCi2 genciated by fo.est clearing returns .C-I4. to the
atmosphere, CO2 from the combustion of fossil fuel does not. Knowledge of
changes in the Jarbon isotope ralios in the atmosphere over time -- prior to the
stant of lhe atomie age in 1945 -- would thcrcfore help determine the relative
annual contribution of fossil fuel combustion and of forest clearing to the
atmospheric CO2 inventorY.
Our vvine measurement proqram is aimed at unravelling this aspect of the Past' The
higher the C-I4 conteni oi atmospheric CO2 in a given year, the higher the C-14
co-ntent of grapes grown that year and of the rcsulting wine. Vinlage rvines thus
represent a-stored record that can presumably be tied to the c-14 contenL of the
co2 in atmospheres of years gone by. we intend to obtain some 100 bottles of wine
wit6 well-documented histories, prcbably from a single chaleau in France. Initial
we can procure a set of non-marketable vintage wines
investigations
-back have indicated
more than a century. We expect to start the experimental work later
dating
this year.
Mass Transfer

at Air/Sea Interface

to address this problem in two parls: (a) determination of the local
drivinq force for mass transfer set by the air and ocean CO2 concenLrations, and
G)-iafermination of the local mass transfer coefficicnt. The results of (a) and (b),
We are going

suitably integrated, can be used to estimale the net global CO2 flux into the ocean,

Part (a) involves the measurement of COz in thc air and in the ocean at numerous
locations repetitively over several seasons. With the assistance of Exxon
International's Tanker Division, we have placed suitable instrumentation and two
ER&E technicians aboard the Esso Atlan!ic' a 500,000 DWT tanker plying the
Persian Gulf/Caribbean route. This route was chosen because it crosses several upwellings around the equator' oceanographic arcas of particular relevance to the
global carbon cycle.

Running expenditures for this part of the CO2 Program are estimated at
K$100/tanker-year and are currently Exxon-fundcd. We expect that Exxon funds
will continue to be available to permit operatirrg at the one tanker level for the two

 -tyears necessary to validate the technique. Meanwhile, we are preparing a formal
proposal to DOE for Government funding of future expenditures and are optimistic
about receiving federal support beginning no later than fiscal year 1981. We are
proposing a five-year program at the one tanker level. Once the data acquisition
techniques are well established, DOE may find it desirable to expand the data base
by using additional instrumented tankers on other routes of oceanogl'ahic significance. Academic and Government research vessels cannot compete economically
with tankers in obtaining such information because the operating cost of the tankers
does not have to be borne by the research program.

For Part (b), we intend to measure the mass transfer coefficient at the air/sea

interface as a function of weather condibions and sea state using naturally occurring
radon-222 as a tracer. Rn-222 is generated at a constant rate in the ocean and is
continuously depleted by loss to the atmosphere and by radioactive decay. The
atmospheric concentration is ef fectivel y zero. Knorving the prof ile of Rn-222
concentnation down from the sea surface should permit us to calculate the mass
transfer coefficient. We expect to carry out the sampling and analyses from an
Exxon drilling ship offshore Australia. Preliminary discussions have been held with
Esso Exploration concerning this phase of the program.

In view of the desirability of integrating our CO2 results into global climatological
modeling programs, we intend to work closely with key university and governmen[
researchers as well as with cognizant international organizations. We believe that
Exxon is in a unique position to provide leadership in a scientific subject of high
significance to ourselves, the nation, and the world.
Very truly yours,