Private Bag X44, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa, ISIbalo House, Koch Street, Salvokop, Pretoria, 0002 www.statssa.gov.za, info@statssa.gov.za, Tel +27 12 310 8911 STATISTICAL RELEASE P0441 Gross domestic product First quarter 2020 Embargoed until: 30 June 2020 11:30 The disruptions resulting from the COVID-19 lockdown have affected Statistics South Africa’s operations. Please see the note on page 8 for further information on the delay in the publication of the benchmarked and rebased GDP estimates as well as the impact of the pandemic on the first quarter GDP estimates. ENQUIRIES: User information service (012) 310 8600 FORTHCOMING ISSUE: Second quarter 2020 EXPECTED RELEASE DATE: 8 September 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 1 P0441 Contents GDP in the first quarter of 2020 fell by 2,0% ............................................................................................................ 2 Gross domestic product at constant 2010 prices: first quarter of 2020 ............................................................... 3 Expenditure on gross domestic product at constant 2010 prices: First quarter of 2020 ................................... 5 Impact of COVID-19 on gross domestic product ..................................................................................................... 8 Table 1 – Industry value added and GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) ............................ 10 Table 2 – Growth rates in industry value added and GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) 11 Table 3 – Contributions to growth in GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) .......................... 12 Table 4 – Industry value added and GDP (constant 2010 prices) ........................................................................................... 13 Table 5 – Growth rates in industry value added and GDP (constant 2010 prices) ................................................................ 14 Table 6 – Expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) ............................................. 15 Table 7 – Growth rates in expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) .................. 16 Table 8 – Contributions to growth in expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) 17 Table 9 – Expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices) ............................................................................................................ 18 Table 10 – Growth rates in expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices) ............................................................................... 19 EXPLANATORY NOTES ........................................................................................................................................... 20 TECHNICAL ENQUIRIES .......................................................................................................................................... 20 GENERAL INFORMATION ........................................................................................................................................ 21 Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 2 P0441 GDP in the first quarter of 2020 fell by 2,0%1 Real gross domestic product (measured by production) decreased by 2,0 % in the first quarter of 2020, following a decrease of 1,4% in the fourth quarter of 2019. Expenditure on real gross domestic product decreased by 2,3% in the first quarter of 2020, following a decrease of 1,2% in the fourth quarter of 2019.2 Figure 1 – Growth in GDP (%) Figure 3 – Growth in expenditure on GDP (%) The two largest negative contributors to growth in GDP in the first quarter were the mining and manufacturing industries. Household final consumption expenditure increased by 0,7% in the first quarter of 2020, contributing 0,4 of a percentage point to total growth. The mining industry decreased by 21,5% and contributed -1,7 percentage points to GDP growth. Government final consumption expenditure increased by 1,1%, contributing 0,2 of a percentage point. The manufacturing industry decreased by 8,5% and contributed -1,1 percentage points to GDP growth. Gross fixed capital formation decreased by 20,5%, contributing -4,2 percentage points. The three highest positive growth rates and contributions to GDP growth in the first quarter were in agriculture (27,8% and contributing 0,5 of a percentage point), finance (3,7% and contributing 0,8 of a percentage point) and general government services (1,0% and contributing 0,1 of a percentage point). Changes in inventories in the first quarter contributed -3,4 percentage points to total growth. Figure 2 – Contributions to growth in GDP, Q1 2020 (% points) Figure 4 – Contributions to growth in expenditure on GDP, Q1 2020 (% points) 1 2 Unless otherwise specified, growth rates are quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised. All growth rates are calculated on the basis of series at constant prices. Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 Exports and imports of goods and services decreased by 2,3% and 16,7%, respectively. Net exports contributed 4,6 percentage points to total growth. The figures showing growth in expenditure on GDP exclude the residual, calculated as the difference between GDP measured by production and the sum of the expenditure components. For more detail see Table 30 on the Stats SA website. STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 3 P0441 Gross domestic product at constant 2010 prices: first quarter of 2020 Primary sector The agriculture, forestry and fishing industry increased by 27,8% and contributed 0,5 of a percentage point to GDP growth. The increase was mainly due to increased production of field crops, horticultural products and animal products. The mining and quarrying industry decreased by 21,5% and contributed -1,7 percentage points to GDP growth. Decreased production was reported for iron ore, manganese ore, other metallic minerals and chromium. Figure 5 – Mining and quarrying growth rate (%) Secondary sector The manufacturing industry contracted by 8,5% in the first quarter. Seven of the ten manufacturing divisions reported negative growth rates in the first quarter. The divisions that made the largest contributions to the decrease were petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastic products; basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery; and motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment. The electricity, gas and water industry contracted by 5,6% in the first quarter, largely due to decreases in electricity distributed and water consumption. The construction industry decreased by 4,7%. Decreases were reported for residential buildings, non-residential buildings and construction works. Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 4 P0441 Figure 6 – Manufacturing growth rate (%) Tertiary sector The trade, catering and accommodation industry decreased by 1,2%. Decreased economic activity was reported in wholesale trade, motor trade and catering and accommodation services. The transport, storage and communication industry increased by 0,5%, as a result of increases in freight transport and communications. Figure 7 – Transport, storage and communication growth rate (%) Finance, real estate and business services increased by 3,7% in the first quarter. Increased economic activity was reported for financial intermediation, insurance and pension funding, auxiliary activities, and other business services. General government services increased by 1,0%, mainly attributed to increased employment in provincial government and higher education institutions. Personal services increased by 0,5%. Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 5 P0441 Expenditure on gross domestic product at constant 2010 prices: First quarter of 2020 Household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) Household final consumption expenditure increased by 0,7% in the first quarter, contributing 0,4 of a percentage point to total growth. The main positive contributors to growth in HFCE were expenditures on food and non-alcoholic beverages (4,3% and contributing 0,8 of a percentage point), furnishings, household equipment, maintenance (3,2% and contributing 0,3 of a percentage point) and housing and utilities (1,7% and contributing 0,2 of a percentage point. Expenditure on clothing and footwear and transport contributed negatively to growth in HFCE. Figure 8a – HFCE growth rate (%) Figure 8b – HFCE contributions, Q1 2020 (% points) Government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) Final consumption expenditure by general government increased by 1,1%. Increases in employment and spending on goods and services were reported in the first quarter. Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 6 P0441 Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) Gross fixed capital formation decreased by 20,5%. The main contributors to the decrease were machinery and other equipment3, transport equipment and other assets 4. Weak imports of machinery and other equipment and transport equipment contributed to the decrease in gross fixed capital formation. Figure 9a – GFCF growth rate (%) Figure 9b – GFCF contributions, Q1 2020 (% points) Changes in inventories There was a R67,3 billion drawdown of inventories in the first quarter of 2020. Large decreases were reported for mining, manufacturing and trade. 3 4 Machinery and other equipment includes computers and related equipment. Other assets includes research and development, computer software, mineral exploration and cultivated biological resources. Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 7 P0441 Exports and imports of goods and services Net exports contributed positively to growth in expenditure on GDP in the first quarter. Exports of goods and services were down 2,3%, largely influenced by decreased trade in precious metals, base metals and travel services. Imports of goods and services decreased by 16,7%, driven largely by decreases in machinery and electrical equipment, mineral products and travel services. Figure 10 – Exports and imports of goods and services (R million, seasonally adjusted and annualised) Risenga Maluleke Statistician-General Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 8 P0441 Impact of COVID-19 on gross domestic product Source data and revisions The global COVID-19 pandemic has had an extensive impact on the South African economy. Strict lockdown regulations came into force on 27 March 2020, but the effects of the pandemic began to be felt well before then. Lockdown measures placed many restrictions on social and economic activity across the world, and severely affected the collection of data for official statistics. Staff at national statistical offices had to adapt to new working conditions, including Statistics South Africa. In the case of enterprise surveys and administrative data, many businesses and institutions were difficult or impossible to contact, or were simply not able to supply their usual information. In the case of household surveys, fieldwork operations were severely curtailed or suspended. With effect from April, many statistical releases were delayed and/or published with relatively low response rates and, therefore, relatively high degrees of imputation. Lower than normal response rates typically result in higher than normal revisions, with a corresponding impact on preliminary GDP results and subsequent GDP revisions. Furthermore, there were various changes in statistical operations, standards and compilation methods to address the disruptions, and these too could lead to larger than usual GDP revisions. However, in all instances additional measures were taken to validate the input data sources with other available information to compile the first quarter GDP estimates. Delay in the publication of the benchmarked and rebased gross domestic product (GDP) results The COVID-19 pandemic will also affect the GDP benchmarking and rebasing that is currently in progress. After careful consideration, there will be a postponement of the publication of the benchmarked and rebased GDP results, previously scheduled for September 2020. Most of the activities required to be completed have been delayed by the lockdown. New dates will be communicated in due course as soon as consultations with the Statistics Council as well as key stakeholders are completed. The publication of the 2018 supply and use tables and independent annual GDP estimates will be similarly affected. Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 9 P0441 Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 10 P0441 Table 1 – Industry value added and GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, real estate and business services General government services Personal services Total value added at basic prices Taxes less subsidies GDP at market prices R million 2014 75 982 226 791 382 498 67 622 106 403 414 826 258 906 592 352 464 664 162 367 2 752 410 275 680 3 028 090 2015 71 515 234 247 380 781 66 364 108 361 423 365 262 458 604 767 468 396 163 791 2 784 045 280 192 3 064 237 2016 64 305 225 035 383 903 64 956 109 640 430 406 265 363 616 301 471 158 166 659 2 797 727 278 739 3 076 466 2017 77 857 234 522 383 189 65 329 109 008 429 224 268 993 628 972 472 497 168 834 2 838 425 281 558 3 119 983 2018 74 157 230 514 386 884 65 932 107 665 431 669 273 193 640 368 478 693 170 530 2 859 605 284 934 3 144 539 2019 69 049 226 154 383 831 64 619 104 150 431 720 272 179 655 040 486 617 172 189 2 865 548 283 789 3 149 337 R million (seasonally adjusted and annualised) 2016 Q3 63 609 230 210 384 822 64 743 109 801 429 196 266 178 618 249 472 013 167 238 2 806 060 279 293 3 085 352 2016 Q4 62 919 224 314 382 463 65 555 110 107 431 581 268 548 621 703 473 033 168 027 2 808 251 279 389 3 087 641 2017 Q1 67 397 230 126 377 951 64 675 109 637 426 193 267 365 622 732 472 339 168 099 2 806 515 279 140 3 085 655 2017 Q2 73 679 232 747 380 919 66 002 109 303 427 880 268 839 628 308 470 307 168 689 2 826 674 281 538 3 108 212 2017 Q3 81 233 239 290 384 136 65 020 108 814 428 529 269 089 630 804 472 293 169 099 2 848 308 281 420 3 129 728 2017 Q4 89 121 235 925 389 750 65 619 108 278 434 293 270 680 634 044 475 049 169 447 2 872 206 284 137 3 156 342 2018 Q1 80 407 230 379 381 299 65 777 107 648 431 024 271 634 635 558 477 540 169 957 2 851 223 283 558 3 134 781 2018 Q2 70 085 234 897 382 652 65 889 108 041 429 747 269 029 638 296 477 797 170 291 2 846 725 283 943 3 130 669 2018 Q3 72 378 229 490 389 629 66 014 107 575 433 320 273 485 641 690 480 100 170 566 2 864 248 286 737 3 150 985 2018 Q4 73 760 227 291 393 955 66 047 107 396 432 584 278 623 645 928 479 333 171 307 2 876 224 285 497 3 161 721 2019 Q1 70 443 220 908 384 991 64 798 105 950 428 619 275 505 647 669 482 349 171 766 2 852 998 283 303 3 136 302 2019 Q2 69 561 229 946 386 951 65 318 105 318 432 259 275 281 654 270 486 276 172 130 2 877 311 284 606 3 161 917 2019 Q3 68 767 226 361 382 577 64 509 103 451 435 079 271 490 656 905 489 171 172 290 2 870 601 284 688 3 155 290 2019 Q4 67 424 227 400 380 805 63 852 101 882 430 922 266 440 661 317 488 671 172 571 2 861 283 282 557 3 143 840 2020 Q1 71 694 214 017 372 466 62 930 100 665 429 592 266 796 667 396 489 857 172 771 2 848 183 279 876 3 128 058 Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 11 P0441 Table 2 – Growth rates in industry value added and GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, real estate and business services General government services Personal services Total value added at basic prices Taxes less subsidies GDP at market prices % change year-on-year 2014 6,8 -1,7 0,3 -1,0 3,5 1,4 3,5 2,7 3,2 1,8 1,9 0,9 1,8 2015 -5,9 3,3 -0,4 -1,9 1,8 2,1 1,4 2,1 0,8 0,9 1,1 1,6 1,2 2016 -10,1 -3,9 0,8 -2,1 1,2 1,7 1,1 1,9 0,6 1,8 0,5 -0,5 0,4 2017 21,1 4,2 -0,2 0,6 -0,6 -0,3 1,4 2,1 0,3 1,3 1,5 1,0 1,4 2018 -4,8 -1,7 1,0 0,9 -1,2 0,6 1,6 1,8 1,3 1,0 0,7 1,2 0,8 2019 -6,9 -1,9 -0,8 -2,0 -3,3 0,0 -0,4 2,3 1,7 1,0 0,2 -0,4 0,2 % change quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted and annualised) 2016 Q3 -4,4 5,8 -2,2 0,2 1,4 -1,9 2,6 2,1 1,6 2,4 0,9 0,7 0,9 2016 Q4 -4,3 -9,9 -2,4 5,1 1,1 2,2 3,6 2,3 0,9 1,9 0,3 0,1 0,3 2017 Q1 31,7 10,8 -4,6 -5,3 -1,7 -4,9 -1,7 0,7 -0,6 0,2 -0,2 -0,4 -0,3 2017 Q2 42,8 4,6 3,2 8,5 -1,2 1,6 2,2 3,6 -1,7 1,4 2,9 3,5 3,0 2017 Q3 47,8 11,7 3,4 -5,8 -1,8 0,6 0,4 1,6 1,7 1,0 3,1 -0,2 2,8 2017 Q4 44,9 -5,5 6,0 3,7 -2,0 5,5 2,4 2,1 2,4 0,8 3,4 3,9 3,4 2018 Q1 -33,7 -9,1 -8,4 1,0 -2,3 -3,0 1,4 1,0 2,1 1,2 -2,9 -0,8 -2,7 2018 Q2 -42,3 8,1 1,4 0,7 1,5 -1,2 -3,8 1,7 0,2 0,8 -0,6 0,5 -0,5 2018 Q3 13,7 -8,9 7,5 0,8 -1,7 3,4 6,8 2,1 1,9 0,6 2,5 4,0 2,6 2018 Q4 7,9 -3,8 4,5 0,2 -0,7 -0,7 7,7 2,7 -0,6 1,7 1,7 -1,7 1,4 2019 Q1 -16,8 -10,8 -8,8 -7,4 -5,3 -3,6 -4,4 1,1 2,5 1,1 -3,2 -3,0 -3,2 2019 Q2 -4,9 17,4 2,1 3,2 -2,4 3,4 -0,3 4,1 3,3 0,8 3,5 1,9 3,3 2019 Q3 -4,5 -6,1 -4,4 -4,9 -6,9 2,6 -5,4 1,6 2,4 0,4 -0,9 0,1 -0,8 2019 Q4 -7,6 1,8 -1,8 -4,0 -5,9 -3,8 -7,2 2,7 -0,4 0,7 -1,3 -3,0 -1,4 2020 Q1 27,8 -21,5 -8,5 -5,6 -4,7 -1,2 0,5 3,7 1,0 0,5 -1,8 -3,7 -2,0 Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 12 P0441 Table 3 – Contributions to growth in GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, real estate and business services General government services Personal services Total value added at basic prices Taxes less subsidies GDP at market prices Percentage points 2014 0,2 -0,1 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,5 0,5 0,1 1,8 0,1 1,8 2015 2016 -0,1 0,2 -0,1 0,0 0,1 0,3 0,1 0,4 0,1 0,0 1,0 0,1 1,2 -0,2 -0,3 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,1 0,4 0,1 0,1 0,4 0,0 0,4 2017 0,4 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,4 0,0 0,1 1,3 0,1 1,4 2018 -0,1 -0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,4 0,2 0,1 0,7 0,1 0,8 2019 -0,2 -0,1 -0,1 0,0 -0,1 0,0 0,0 0,5 0,3 0,1 0,2 0,0 0,2 2016 Q3 -0,1 0,4 -0,3 0,0 0,1 -0,3 0,2 0,4 0,2 0,1 0,8 0,1 0,9 2016 Q4 -0,1 -0,8 -0,3 0,1 0,0 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,1 0,1 0,3 0,0 0,3 2017 Q1 0,6 0,8 -0,6 -0,1 -0,1 -0,7 -0,2 0,1 -0,1 0,0 -0,2 0,0 -0,3 2017 Q2 0,8 0,3 0,4 0,2 0,0 0,2 0,2 0,7 -0,3 0,1 2,6 0,3 3,0 2017 Q3 1,0 0,9 0,4 -0,1 -0,1 0,1 0,0 0,3 0,3 0,1 2,8 0,0 2,8 2017 Q4 1,0 -0,4 0,7 0,1 -0,1 0,7 0,2 0,4 0,4 0,0 3,1 0,4 3,4 2018 Q1 -1,1 -0,7 -1,1 0,0 -0,1 -0,4 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,1 -2,6 -0,1 -2,7 2018 Q2 -1,3 0,6 0,2 0,0 0,1 -0,2 -0,3 0,3 0,0 0,0 -0,6 0,0 -0,5 2018 Q3 0,3 -0,7 0,9 0,0 -0,1 0,5 0,6 0,4 0,3 0,0 2,3 0,4 2,6 2018 Q4 0,2 -0,3 0,6 0,0 0,0 -0,1 0,7 0,5 -0,1 0,1 1,5 -0,2 1,4 2019 Q1 -0,4 -0,8 -1,1 -0,2 -0,2 -0,5 -0,4 0,2 0,4 0,1 -2,9 -0,3 -3,2 2019 Q2 -0,1 1,2 0,3 0,1 -0,1 0,5 0,0 0,9 0,5 0,0 3,1 0,2 3,3 2019 Q3 -0,1 -0,5 -0,6 -0,1 -0,2 0,4 -0,5 0,3 0,4 0,0 -0,8 0,0 -0,8 2019 Q4 -0,2 0,1 -0,2 -0,1 -0,2 -0,5 -0,6 0,6 -0,1 0,0 -1,2 -0,3 -1,4 2020 Q1 0,5 -1,7 -1,1 -0,1 -0,2 -0,2 0,0 0,8 0,1 0,0 -1,7 -0,3 -2,0 Percentage points Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 13 P0441 Table 4 – Industry value added and GDP (constant 2010 prices) Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, real estate and business services General government services Personal services Total value added at basic prices Taxes less subsidies GDP at market prices R million 2014 75 982 226 791 382 498 67 622 106 403 414 826 258 906 592 352 464 664 162 367 2 752 410 275 680 3 028 090 2015 71 515 234 247 380 781 66 364 108 361 423 365 262 458 604 767 468 396 163 791 2 784 045 280 192 3 064 237 2016 64 305 225 035 383 903 64 956 109 640 430 406 265 363 616 301 471 158 166 659 2 797 727 278 739 3 076 466 2017 77 857 234 522 383 189 65 329 109 008 429 224 268 993 628 972 472 497 168 834 2 838 425 281 558 3 119 983 2018 74 157 230 514 386 884 65 932 107 665 431 669 273 193 640 368 478 693 170 530 2 859 605 284 934 3 144 539 2019 69 049 226 154 383 831 64 619 104 150 431 720 272 179 655 040 486 617 172 189 2 865 548 283 789 3 149 337 R million 2016 Q3 14 395 57 608 98 349 16 620 27 150 104 289 67 985 154 345 117 571 42 172 700 483 70 003 770 486 2016 Q4 11 213 58 084 98 404 16 501 27 956 122 567 69 318 154 748 118 856 40 704 718 350 72 132 790 482 2017 Q1 18 072 55 346 90 061 15 454 27 407 101 123 63 963 156 008 118 376 42 026 687 835 68 159 755 994 2017 Q2 29 232 58 719 94 391 16 411 27 022 101 168 65 978 157 237 117 475 42 855 710 488 69 836 780 324 2017 Q3 19 669 59 909 98 093 16 587 27 042 103 774 68 669 157 519 117 717 42 892 711 870 70 615 782 486 2017 Q4 10 884 60 548 100 643 16 878 27 537 123 159 70 385 158 209 118 929 41 060 728 232 72 948 801 180 2018 Q1 17 517 54 833 90 317 15 605 26 926 101 713 65 229 157 984 119 745 42 569 692 439 68 958 761 397 2018 Q2 24 299 59 557 95 329 16 433 26 683 101 554 65 915 158 658 119 220 43 293 710 941 70 203 781 144 2018 Q3 21 524 57 612 99 252 16 824 26 818 104 930 69 941 160 545 119 558 43 173 720 176 72 187 792 363 2018 Q4 10 818 58 512 101 986 17 070 27 239 123 472 72 107 163 181 120 170 41 496 736 050 73 585 809 635 2019 Q1 15 294 52 293 90 814 15 391 26 313 101 094 65 917 161 760 120 931 43 131 692 937 68 696 761 633 2019 Q2 22 774 58 745 95 850 16 356 26 025 101 947 67 548 163 525 121 326 43 632 717 727 70 580 788 307 2019 Q3 19 937 57 217 97 805 16 426 25 814 105 526 69 244 164 246 121 828 43 722 721 765 71 667 793 431 2019 Q4 11 044 57 899 99 362 16 447 25 998 123 153 69 469 165 510 122 532 41 705 733 120 72 846 805 965 2020 Q1 17 374 49 917 87 631 14 943 24 926 101 020 63 940 166 809 122 836 43 521 692 917 67 971 760 888 Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 14 P0441 Table 5 – Growth rates in industry value added and GDP (constant 2010 prices) Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, real estate and business services General government services Personal services Total value added at basic prices Taxes less subsidies GDP at market prices % change year-on-year 2014 6,8 -1,7 0,3 -1,0 3,5 1,4 3,5 2,7 3,2 1,8 1,9 0,9 1,8 2015 -5,9 3,3 -0,4 -1,9 1,8 2,1 1,4 2,1 0,8 0,9 1,1 1,6 1,2 2016 -10,1 -3,9 0,8 -2,1 1,2 1,7 1,1 1,9 0,6 1,8 0,5 -0,5 0,4 2017 21,1 4,2 -0,2 0,6 -0,6 -0,3 1,4 2,1 0,3 1,3 1,5 1,0 1,4 2018 -4,8 -1,7 1,0 0,9 -1,2 0,6 1,6 1,8 1,3 1,0 0,7 1,2 0,8 2019 -6,9 -1,9 -0,8 -2,0 -3,3 0,0 -0,4 2,3 1,7 1,0 0,2 -0,4 0,2 % change year-on-year 2016 Q3 -12,9 0,7 0,6 -0,8 1,4 1,2 1,1 1,7 0,3 2,2 0,7 0,3 0,7 2016 Q4 0,0 -2,2 -0,6 -1,8 0,8 1,6 2,4 1,8 1,4 1,9 0,9 0,2 0,9 2017 Q1 4,4 7,0 -0,8 -1,0 -0,4 -0,5 1,6 1,8 0,9 1,2 1,2 0,6 1,1 2017 Q2 36,7 1,9 -2,0 1,1 0,1 -0,7 1,3 2,2 0,1 1,4 1,6 1,4 1,6 2017 Q3 36,6 4,0 -0,3 -0,2 -0,4 -0,5 1,0 2,1 0,1 1,7 1,6 0,9 1,6 2017 Q4 -2,9 4,2 2,3 2,3 -1,5 0,5 1,5 2,2 0,1 0,9 1,4 1,1 1,4 2018 Q1 -3,1 -0,9 0,3 1,0 -1,8 0,6 2,0 1,3 1,2 1,3 0,7 1,2 0,7 2018 Q2 -16,9 1,4 1,0 0,1 -1,3 0,4 -0,1 0,9 1,5 1,0 0,1 0,5 0,1 2018 Q3 9,4 -3,8 1,2 1,4 -0,8 1,1 1,9 1,9 1,6 0,7 1,2 2,2 1,3 2018 Q4 -0,6 -3,4 1,3 1,1 -1,1 0,3 2,4 3,1 1,0 1,1 1,1 0,9 1,1 2019 Q1 -12,7 -4,6 0,6 -1,4 -2,3 -0,6 1,1 2,4 1,0 1,3 0,1 -0,4 0,0 2019 Q2 -6,3 -1,4 0,5 -0,5 -2,5 0,4 2,5 3,1 1,8 0,8 1,0 0,5 0,9 2019 Q3 -7,4 -0,7 -1,5 -2,4 -3,7 0,6 -1,0 2,3 1,9 1,3 0,2 -0,7 0,1 2019 Q4 2,1 -1,0 -2,6 -3,6 -4,6 -0,3 -3,7 1,4 2,0 0,5 -0,4 -1,0 -0,5 2020 Q1 13,6 -4,5 -3,5 -2,9 -5,3 -0,1 -3,0 3,1 1,6 0,9 0,0 -1,1 -0,1 Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 15 P0441 Table 6 – Expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) Final consumption expenditure Households General government Gross capital formation Total Gross fixed capital formation Change in inventories Total Gross domestic expenditure Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Expenditure on GDP R million 2014 1 818 511 619 681 2 438 192 618 786 6 180 624 966 3 063 158 883 501 916 155 3 030 504 2015 1 853 657 614 957 2 468 614 634 540 20 917 655 457 3 124 071 909 345 966 025 3 067 391 2016 1 864 436 628 434 2 492 871 612 111 -9 653 602 458 3 095 329 912 546 928 730 3 079 145 2017 1 902 851 629 712 2 532 563 618 516 3 189 621 705 3 154 268 905 898 937 740 3 122 426 2018 1 937 396 641 512 2 578 908 609 614 -5 440 604 174 3 183 082 929 792 968 651 3 144 223 2019 1 957 656 651 103 2 608 759 603 928 -9 130 594 798 3 203 557 906 445 963 940 3 146 062 R million (seasonally adjusted and annualised) 2016 Q3 1 869 537 627 827 2 497 365 600 249 5 384 605 632 3 102 997 901 172 915 784 3 088 385 2016 Q4 1 875 994 629 258 2 505 251 618 903 2 223 621 126 3 126 378 889 581 925 185 3 090 773 2017 Q1 1 879 556 628 022 2 507 578 615 058 8 074 623 132 3 130 710 887 877 932 076 3 086 511 2017 Q2 1 896 471 629 226 2 525 697 620 742 4 505 625 247 3 150 943 911 317 950 499 3 111 761 2017 Q3 1 909 044 630 371 2 539 416 607 466 -981 606 485 3 145 901 899 793 911 840 3 133 854 2017 Q4 1 926 332 631 229 2 557 562 630 799 1 158 631 958 3 189 519 924 605 956 545 3 157 579 2018 Q1 1 931 764 638 417 2 570 181 615 553 13 142 628 695 3 198 876 890 075 953 093 3 135 858 2018 Q2 1 932 393 641 756 2 574 149 609 647 4 574 614 220 3 188 370 898 932 955 173 3 132 129 2018 Q3 1 935 067 642 430 2 577 498 608 540 14 456 622 996 3 200 494 952 384 1 004 525 3 148 353 2018 Q4 1 950 359 643 445 2 593 803 604 717 -53 932 550 785 3 144 589 977 777 961 814 3 160 551 2019 Q1 1 946 129 646 877 2 593 005 598 424 -11 686 586 738 3 179 743 903 856 949 922 3 133 678 2019 Q2 1 958 368 651 125 2 609 494 606 981 29 391 636 372 3 245 866 900 389 990 905 3 155 350 2019 Q3 1 959 755 653 345 2 613 100 613 116 -13 895 599 221 3 212 321 908 129 968 044 3 152 406 2019 Q4 1 966 371 653 065 2 619 436 597 190 -40 330 556 860 3 176 296 913 404 946 889 3 142 811 2020 Q1 1 969 884 654 888 2 624 772 563 852 -67 256 496 596 3 121 368 908 001 904 682 3 124 688 Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 16 P0441 Table 7 – Growth rates in expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) Final consumption expenditure Households General government Gross fixed capital formation Total Gross capital formation Gross domestic expenditure Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Expenditure on GDP % change year-on-year 2014 0,8 1,7 1,0 0,7 -1,8 0,5 3,6 -0,6 1,7 2015 1,9 -0,8 1,2 2,5 4,9 2,0 2,9 5,4 1,2 2016 0,6 2,2 1,0 -3,5 -8,1 -0,9 0,4 -3,9 0,4 2017 2,1 0,2 1,6 1,0 3,2 1,9 -0,7 1,0 1,4 2018 1,8 1,9 1,8 -1,4 -2,8 0,9 2,6 3,3 0,7 2019 1,0 1,5 1,2 -0,9 -1,6 0,6 -2,5 -0,5 0,1 2016 Q3 2,4 -1,3 1,5 -5,7 25,9 5,7 -17,7 -3,7 0,9 2016 Q4 1,4 0,9 1,3 13,0 10,6 3,0 -5,0 4,2 0,3 2017 Q1 0,8 -0,8 0,4 -2,5 1,3 0,6 -0,8 3,0 -0,6 2017 Q2 3,6 0,8 2,9 3,7 1,4 2,6 11,0 8,1 3,3 2017 Q3 2,7 0,7 2,2 -8,3 -11,5 -0,6 -5,0 -15,3 2,9 2017 Q4 3,7 0,5 2,9 16,3 17,9 5,7 11,5 21,1 3,1 2018 Q1 1,1 4,6 2,0 -9,3 -2,0 1,2 -14,1 -1,4 -2,7 2018 Q2 0,1 2,1 0,6 -3,8 -8,9 -1,3 4,0 0,9 -0,5 2018 Q3 0,6 0,4 0,5 -0,7 5,8 1,5 26,0 22,3 2,1 2018 Q4 3,2 0,6 2,6 -2,5 -38,9 -6,8 11,1 -16,0 1,6 2019 Q1 -0,9 2,2 -0,1 -4,1 28,8 4,5 -27,0 -4,9 -3,4 2019 Q2 2,5 2,7 2,6 5,8 38,4 8,6 -1,5 18,4 2,8 2019 Q3 0,3 1,4 0,6 4,1 -21,4 -4,1 3,5 -8,9 -0,4 2019 Q4 1,4 -0,2 1,0 -10,0 -25,4 -4,4 2,3 -8,5 -1,2 2020 Q1 0,7 1,1 0,8 -20,5 -36,8 -6,7 -2,3 -16,7 -2,3 % change quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted and annualised) Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 17 P0441 Table 8 – Contributions to growth in expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) Final consumption expenditure Households General government Gross capital formation Gross fixed capital formation Total Change in inventories Gross domestic expenditure Total Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Expenditure on GDP Percentage points 2014 0,5 0,3 0,8 0,1 -0,5 -0,4 0,5 1,0 0,2 1,7 2015 1,2 -0,2 1,0 0,5 0,5 1,0 2,0 0,9 -1,6 1,2 2016 0,4 0,4 0,8 -0,7 -1,0 -1,7 -0,9 0,1 1,2 0,4 2017 1,2 0,0 1,3 0,2 0,4 0,6 1,9 -0,2 -0,3 1,4 2018 1,1 0,4 1,5 -0,3 -0,3 -0,6 0,9 0,8 -1,0 0,7 2019 0,6 0,3 0,9 -0,2 -0,1 -0,3 0,7 -0,7 0,1 0,1 2016 Q3 1,4 -0,3 1,2 -1,1 5,6 4,4 5,6 -5,9 1,1 0,9 2016 Q4 0,8 0,2 1,0 2,4 -0,4 2,0 3,0 -1,5 -1,2 0,3 2017 Q1 0,5 -0,2 0,3 -0,5 0,8 0,3 0,6 -0,2 -0,9 -0,6 2017 Q2 2,2 0,2 2,4 0,7 -0,5 0,3 2,7 3,1 -2,4 3,3 2017 Q3 1,6 0,1 1,8 -1,7 -0,7 -2,4 -0,7 -1,5 5,0 2,9 2017 Q4 2,2 0,1 2,3 3,0 0,3 3,3 5,6 3,2 -5,8 3,1 2018 Q1 0,7 0,9 1,6 -1,9 1,5 -0,4 1,2 -4,3 0,4 -2,7 2018 Q2 0,1 0,4 0,5 -0,8 -1,1 -1,8 -1,3 1,1 -0,3 -0,5 2018 Q3 0,3 0,1 0,4 -0,1 1,3 1,1 1,6 6,9 -6,4 2,1 2018 Q4 2,0 0,1 2,1 -0,5 -8,7 -9,2 -7,1 3,2 5,5 1,6 2019 Q1 -0,5 0,4 -0,1 -0,8 5,3 4,5 4,4 -9,2 1,5 -3,4 2019 Q2 1,6 0,5 2,1 1,1 5,3 6,4 8,5 -0,4 -5,3 2,8 2019 Q3 0,2 0,3 0,5 0,8 -5,5 -4,7 -4,2 1,0 2,9 -0,4 2019 Q4 0,8 0,0 0,8 -2,0 -3,3 -5,4 -4,6 0,7 2,7 -1,2 2020 Q1 0,4 0,2 0,7 -4,2 -3,4 -7,6 -6,9 -0,7 5,3 -2,3 Percentage points Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 18 P0441 Table 9 – Expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices) Final consumption expenditure Households General government Gross capital formation Total Gross fixed capital formation Change in inventories Total Gross domestic expenditure Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Expenditure on GDP R million 2014 1 818 511 619 681 2 438 192 618 786 6 180 624 966 3 063 158 883 501 916 155 3 030 504 2015 1 853 657 614 957 2 468 614 634 540 20 917 655 457 3 124 071 909 345 966 025 3 067 391 2016 1 864 436 628 434 2 492 871 612 111 -9 653 602 458 3 095 329 912 546 928 730 3 079 145 2017 1 902 851 629 712 2 532 563 618 516 3 189 621 705 3 154 268 905 898 937 740 3 122 426 2018 1 937 396 641 512 2 578 908 609 614 -5 440 604 174 3 183 082 929 792 968 651 3 144 223 2019 1 957 656 651 103 2 608 759 603 928 -9 130 594 798 3 203 557 906 445 963 940 3 146 062 R million 2016 Q3 460 152 156 839 616 990 152 338 9 214 161 552 778 543 229 474 237 361 770 656 2016 Q4 500 078 159 620 659 698 156 945 -4 310 152 635 812 332 226 723 234 073 804 982 2017 Q1 451 688 157 823 609 511 150 012 -5 624 144 389 753 900 213 060 227 200 739 759 2017 Q2 464 049 154 541 618 590 154 763 6 050 160 813 779 403 227 750 232 881 774 271 2017 Q3 471 830 157 310 629 140 154 381 7 431 161 812 790 952 229 317 235 893 784 377 2017 Q4 515 285 160 037 675 322 159 360 -4 668 154 692 830 014 235 771 241 766 824 019 2018 Q1 466 509 160 518 627 027 150 094 -2 824 147 270 774 297 212 748 230 881 756 164 2018 Q2 472 926 157 714 630 640 152 202 4 834 157 037 787 677 225 950 234 581 779 046 2018 Q3 476 856 160 193 637 049 153 674 10 770 164 444 801 493 242 673 258 542 785 623 2018 Q4 521 105 163 087 684 192 153 643 -18 220 135 423 819 615 248 421 244 647 823 389 2019 Q1 468 909 162 458 631 367 145 791 -8 680 137 111 768 478 216 000 230 477 754 001 2019 Q2 479 790 159 976 639 765 151 473 10 533 162 005 801 771 224 744 242 322 784 194 2019 Q3 483 063 162 925 645 988 155 055 3 748 158 803 804 791 232 358 251 479 785 670 2019 Q4 525 894 165 744 691 638 151 609 -14 731 136 878 828 517 233 342 239 662 822 197 2020 Q1 473 730 164 426 638 156 136 818 -27 907 108 911 747 067 216 421 219 061 744 428 Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 19 P0441 Table 10 – Growth rates in expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices) Final consumption expenditure Households General government Gross fixed capital formation Total Gross capital formation Gross domestic expenditure Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Expenditure on GDP % change year-on-year 2014 0,8 1,7 1,0 0,7 -1,8 0,5 3,6 -0,6 1,7 2015 1,9 -0,8 1,2 2,5 4,9 2,0 2,9 5,4 1,2 2016 0,6 2,2 1,0 -3,5 -8,1 -0,9 0,4 -3,9 0,4 2017 2,1 0,2 1,6 1,0 3,2 1,9 -0,7 1,0 1,4 2018 1,8 1,9 1,8 -1,4 -2,8 0,9 2,6 3,3 0,7 2019 1,0 1,5 1,2 -0,9 -1,6 0,6 -2,5 -0,5 0,1 % change year-on-year 2016 Q3 0,7 1,8 1,0 -7,0 -3,7 0,0 -1,5 -4,4 1,0 2016 Q4 0,6 1,2 0,7 -1,0 -5,2 -0,5 -1,5 -4,4 0,5 2017 Q1 0,6 0,1 0,5 -0,5 3,8 1,1 -3,2 -1,3 0,6 2017 Q2 1,9 0,1 1,5 1,8 7,8 2,7 -3,6 2,5 0,8 2017 Q3 2,5 0,3 2,0 1,3 0,2 1,6 -0,1 -0,6 1,8 2017 Q4 3,0 0,3 2,4 1,5 1,3 2,2 4,0 3,3 2,4 2018 Q1 3,3 1,7 2,9 0,1 2,0 2,7 -0,1 1,6 2,2 2018 Q2 1,9 2,1 1,9 -1,7 -2,3 1,1 -0,8 0,7 0,6 2018 Q3 1,1 1,8 1,3 -0,5 1,6 1,3 5,8 9,6 0,2 2018 Q4 1,1 1,9 1,3 -3,6 -12,5 -1,3 5,4 1,2 -0,1 2019 Q1 0,5 1,2 0,7 -2,9 -6,9 -0,8 1,5 -0,2 -0,3 2019 Q2 1,5 1,4 1,4 -0,5 3,2 1,8 -0,5 3,3 0,7 2019 Q3 1,3 1,7 1,4 0,9 -3,4 0,4 -4,3 -2,7 0,0 2019 Q4 0,9 1,6 1,1 -1,3 1,1 1,1 -6,1 -2,0 -0,1 2020 Q1 1,0 1,2 1,1 -6,2 -20,6 -2,8 0,2 -5,0 -1,3 Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 20 P0441 EXPLANATORY NOTES Forthcoming issues Reference documents Issue Expected date of publication Second quarter of 2020 8 September 2020 Third quarter of 2020 8 December 2020 Fourth quarter of 2020 9 March 2021 Information related to the compilation of the production-based GDP estimates is available in the GDP release P0441 for the fourth quarter 2014 on the Stats SA website: http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0441/P04413rdQuarter2014.pdf Information related to the compilation of the expenditure-based GDP estimates is available in the sources and methods document on the Stats SA website: http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0441/Expenditure_on_GDP_Sources_and_Methods.pdf TECHNICAL ENQUIRIES Michael Manamela Telephone number: 012 310 8520 Email: Michaelm@statssa.gov.za Litshani Ligudu Telephone number: 012 310 4674 Email: Litshanil@statssa.gov.za Bontlenyana Makhoba Telephone number: 012 310 8567 Email: Bontlenyanam@statssa.gov.za Gross domestic product, First quarter 2020 STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 21 P0441 GENERAL INFORMATION Stats SA publishes approximately 300 different statistical releases each year. 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