Terrorism Threat Assessment 2018 NEW JERSEY OFFICE OF HOMELAND SECURITY AND PREPAREDNESS UNCLASSIFIED About Us Shortly after the tragic events of September 11, 2001, New Jersey’s legislature and Governor passed and signed the Domestic Security Preparedness Act, which created the Domestic Security Preparedness Task Force within the Office of the Attorney General. In 2002, the Governor created the Office of Counterterrorism (OCT) by Executive Order 33, which remained under the Attorney General. OCT provided New Jersey with a single agency to lead and coordinate New Jersey’s counterterrorism efforts with state, local, and federal authorities and with the private sector. OCT remained in place until 2006, when it was reorganized—by Executive Order 5—into the New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness (NJOHSP), bolstering New Jersey’s resources for counterterrorism, critical infrastructure protection, emergency preparedness, training, and federal grants management. NJOHSP was tasked with coordinating counterterrorism and emergency response efforts across all levels of government, law enforcement, emergency management, nonprofit organizations, and the private sector. Mission NJOHSP leads and coordinates New Jersey’s counterterrorism, cybersecurity, and preparedness efforts while building resiliency throughout the State. Core Values SERVICE. We put our State and its citizens first, and we put Mission before self. We take pride in being timely, agile, and relevant. TEAMWORK. We stand with and behind each other. We recognize that partnerships, both internal and external, are critical to achieving success. We cannot fulfill our Mission alone. EXCELLENCE. We take great pride in the quality of our work. We do every task, every project, every initiative, to the best of our ability. DIVERSITY. We strive to build a workforce that is as diverse as New Jersey’s citizenry. We pride ourselves on encouraging diversity of thought, perspective, and problem solving. Foreword Last October, Sayfullo Saipov—a New Jersey resident—drove a truck down a bike path in lower Manhattan, killing eight and injuring 11. While this horrific attack occurred in New York City, Saipov lived and planned his attack in New Jersey. For homeland security professionals, this is a stark reminder that individuals who want to disrupt our way of life are here and are willing to travel across state lines to execute attacks. Furthermore, this case demonstrated that while groups like ISIS are suffering battlefield losses overseas, they are still capable of inspiring individuals here. In the year ahead, homegrown violent extremists will remain our most persistent adversary. This is largely due to the fact that the violence these individuals are committed to carrying out is so challenging for homeland security professionals and law enforcement officials to detect and deter. Couple this with the dramatic rise in violence between racebased, single-issue, and anti-government extremists and it is clear that our threat landscape has become more diverse than ever before. Despite these changes, our community remains resilient, and we have you—the public—to thank for that. In May, thanks to a tip from a family member, authorities charged Gregory Lepsky from Point Pleasant Borough (Ocean County) with plotting to build a pressure-cooker bomb and detonate it in New York City in support of ISIS. Successful disruptions like this demonstrate just how valuable your contributions are and how critical these tips are in preventing future attacks. We are all responsible for keeping our communities safe. In the next year and beyond, my team—in coordination with our federal, state, and local partners— will bolster our training, improve public outreach, and expand our preparedness efforts. We will continue publishing unclassified threat analysis and provide tailored briefings to diverse audiences. We will strive to solidify our relationships with our private-sector partners and faith-based community, as well as invest more personnel and resources in strategic partners to expand the “See Something, Say Something” message. In short, we will do everything we can to ensure that you and your families are safe and secure. That said, we cannot do this alone. We need your support and partnership. Therefore, I would ask you— if you see something, say something, and contact us at 1-866-4-SAFE-NJ (866-472-3365) or email tips@njohsp.gov. Sincerely, Jared Maples Director, NJOHSP February 2018 Table of Contents What Groups Pose the Greatest Threat to New Jersey in 2018?................................................................2 Assessed Threat Level ...............................................................................................................................3 What Extremist Activity Did We See in 2017?..............................................................................................4 2017 Terrorism in New Jersey Timeline...................................................................................................5 Why Will Homegrown Violent Extremists (HVEs) Remain the Greatest Threat in 2018?..................6 The Persistent Threat from HVEs.............................................................................................................7 New Jersey HVE Arrests in 2017...............................................................................................................8 HVE Attacks in 2017...................................................................................................................................9 HVE Trends................................................................................................................................................10 What Did We Learn About Domestic Terrorism in 2017?........................................................................12 Domestic Terrorism: A Changing Environment ..................................................................................13 Domestic Extremists: Protest Tactics......................................................................................................14 White Supremacist Extremists Pose Multifaceted Threat...................................................................16 White Supremacist Attacks in 2017........................................................................................................17 Militia Extremists: Shifting Focus in 2018..............................................................................................18 How Are International Terrorist Groups Preparing for 2018?................................................................20 ISIS: Maintaining a Global Presence Amid a Collapsing Caliphate..................................................21 The Future of the al-Qa’ida Network . ..................................................................................................22 Al-Qa’ida Network: Propaganda Reflects Long-Term Strategy .......................................................24 AQAP: Resilient Despite Turmoil in Yemen ........................................................................................25 Hizballah Arrests Reveal Operational Presence in United States .....................................................26 How are Terrorists Using the Internet?.......................................................................................................28 Cyberterrorism..........................................................................................................................................29 Removing Online Content Likely Limits Extremist Influence ..........................................................30 How Can We Work Together?.......................................................................................................................32 Security Starts with YOU.........................................................................................................................33 Suspicious Activity Reporting.................................................................................................................34 How to Report Suspicious Activity........................................................................................................35 New Jersey’s Disaster Behavioral Health System................................................................................36 How Does NJOHSP Define Terrorism?.......................................................................................................38 Definitions..................................................................................................................................................39 What Products Did NJOHSP Release in 2017?...........................................................................................42 Terrorism-Related Products.....................................................................................................................43 Information Cutoff: February 1, 2018 2018 Threat Assessment 1 WHAT GROUPS POSE THE GREATEST THREAT TO NEW JERSEY IN 2018? Assessed Threat Level High Homegrown Violent Extremists Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula Anarchist Extremists Moderate ISIS Militia Extremists Sovereign Citizen Extremists White Supremacist Extremists Al-Qa’ida Al-Qa’ida in the Indian Subcontinent Al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb Al-Shabaab Animal Rights Extremists Anti-Abortion Extremists Low Black Separatist Extremists Boko Haram Environmental Extremists HAMAS Hizballah Lashkar-e-Tayyiba Nusrah Front Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan 2018 Threat Assessment 3 WHAT EXTREMIST ACTIVITY DID WE SEE IN 2017? 2017 Terrorism in New Jersey Timeline February 21 Homegrown Violent Extremist: Authorities arrest Gregory Lepsky in Point Pleasant Borough (Ocean County) for plotting to build a pressurecooker bomb and detonate it in New York City in support of ISIS. March 28 Anarchist Extremists: Anarchist extremists and supporters of the US President clash in Seaside Heights (Ocean County). March 31 Sovereign Citizen Extremists: Following a car accident in Rochelle Park (Bergen County), police arrest a sovereign citizen extremist for failure to comply and resisting arrest, after providing false documents. During the altercation, police also arrest the subject’s associate for assault. April 13 White Supremacist Extremist: Authorities arrest Joshua Steever, the leader of a New Jersey-based international white supremacist organization, in Phillipsburg (Warren County). May 6 Black Separatist Extremist: Authorities arrest a national leader of the New Black Panther Party—a black separatist extremist group—in Newark (Essex County) on weapons charges, according to a statement the group released later that month. October 10 White Supremacist Extremist: Authorities arrest a suspect in Bergen County for terroristic threats, bias intimidation, and harassment after sending anti-Semitic letters with white supremacist rhetoric to businesses and police officers in New Jersey. October 31 Homegrown Violent Extremist: Authorities arrest New Jersey resident Sayfullo Saipov—an ISIS sympathizer—after he drove a rented vehicle down a bike path in lower Manhattan, killing eight and injuring 11. December 29 9 2018 Threat Assessment White Supremacist Extremist: Authorities arrest an Atlantic City Skinheads member in Galloway Township (Atlantic County) for possession of illegal weapons and narcotics. 2018 Threat Assessment 5 WHY WILL HOMEGROWN VIOLENT EXTREMISTS (HVES) REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT IN 2018? The Persistent Threat from HVEs HVEs will continue operating in New Jersey and the surrounding region, while reaching out to likeminded individuals online. Over the last decade, terrorist groups, such as ISIS and al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), have encouraged HVEs to conduct attacks in the country where they reside. HVE Key Points HVEs are individuals inspired—as opposed to directed—by a foreign terrorist organization and radicalized in the countries in which they are born, raised, or reside. Since 2015, there have been 33 HVE arrests in the tristate region, which includes New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. While international terrorist organizations have encouraged HVEs to carry out attacks, in many instances, personal grievances influence their ideology, target selection, and violent acts. In March, authorities arrested Elvis Redzepagic—a Nusrah Front and ISIS sympathizer—who “made numerous attempts to travel to Syria to wage violent jihad.” Redzepagic, a New York resident, reached out to sympathizers online after seeing images of his cousin fighting in Syria. Redzepagic also exchanged Facebook messages with an unidentified individual stating, “I read alot about jihad…and shariah law… its self explanatory you fight for the sake of God.” HVEs can be radicalized using social media—including Facebook, YouTube, and Telegram—which encourages attacks in the West or support for terrorists overseas. HVE Arrests in the Tri-State Region 2015-17 Arrests Arrests by Incident Type 23 25 20 12 15 9 10 5 15 15 5 6 7 3 3 0 0 Pennsylvania New Jersey 1 3 1 2 2 Attack Plot 4 Material Support New York HVE Update: Rahimi Radicalizing Fellow Inmates In October, a jury found New Jersey resident Ahmad Khan Rahimi guilty of eight federal charges in relation to his attacks on New Jersey and New York City. During his incarceration, Rahimi distributed “terrorist propaganda” to other inmates, including speeches and lectures by Usama bin Ladin and Anwar al-Aulaqi, “The Book of Jihad,” bomb-making instructions, and issues of ISIS’s English-language magazine, Rumiyah. Among the inmates receiving this propaganda was Sajmir Alimehmeti, who was arrested in May 2016 for attempting to travel to Syria to join ISIS and attempting to facilitate travel for an undercover FBI employee to ISIS-controlled territory. 2018 Threat Assessment 7 New Jersey HVE Arrests in 2017 In 2017, there were 13 attacks and plots nationwide—two involving New Jersey residents— and 23 individuals charged with material support across the United States. Gregory Lepsky Point Pleasant Borough (Ocean County) On February 21, a relative of Gregory Lepsky notified local law enforcement that Lepsky had a weapon and was going to kill the family dog. Officers discovered the dog alive, but with a large wound, and subsequently arrested Lepsky. According to the criminal complaint, Lepsky stated that he had stabbed the dog because, in his view of Islam, dogs are “dirty.” He also planned to kill his mother and praised ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. During the investigation, officers found a pressure cooker in Lepsky’s closet, as well as several books on jihad and suicide bombing. In addition to various radical photographs and messages recovered from his cell phone, Lepsky’s Internet history revealed many searches related to ISIS propaganda, terrorist attacks, and beheadings. Lepsky also read articles on how to make a pressure-cooker bomb, including “Make a Bomb in the Kitchen of Your Mom,” published in AQAP’s English-language magazine, Inspire. Sayfullo Saipov Paterson (Passaic County) On October 31, Sayfullo Saipov drove a pickup truck down a bike path along the Hudson River in lower Manhattan—killing eight and injuring 11—before crashing into a school bus. Police shot Saipov after he exited the vehicle displaying a paintball and a pellet gun. The attack method followed the instructions in the November 2016 issue of ISIS’s English-language magazine, Rumiyah, which specifically mentions using vehicles as weapons under a section titled, “Just Terror Tactics.” Saipov viewed several ISIS and al-Qa’ida videos, including some featuring al-Baghdadi, encouraging Muslims in the United States to retaliate for the killing of Muslims in Iraq, according to the criminal complaint. Authorities also discovered that he read other English-language propaganda, such as Inspire magazine. 8 2018 Threat Assessment HVE Attacks in 2017 Esteban Santiago-Ruiz Fort Lauderdale, Florida On January 6, Esteban Santiago-Ruiz—a New Jersey native—retrieved a semiautomatic pistol from his checked luggage in the baggage claim area at Fort Lauderdale International Airport and opened fire, killing five and injuring 42. After authorities arrested him, Santiago-Ruiz claimed he acted on behalf of ISIS. Joshua Cummings Denver On January 31, Joshua Cummings—a former Army sergeant—shot and killed a transit officer outside of a rail station in Denver. Cummings was known to authorities and pledged allegiance to ISIS during an interview after his arrest. Devon Arthurs Tampa On May 19, local authorities arrested Devon Arthurs after he held three people hostage at gunpoint in a store in Tampa, in response to US military action in Muslim countries. Following his arrest, Arthurs confessed to killing two of his roommates earlier that day, claiming they disrespected Islam. Sayfullo Saipov New York City On October 31, Sayfullo Saipov, an ISIS-inspired individual from New Jersey, carried out a vehicle-ramming attack in lower Manhattan, killing eight and injuring 11. Mahad Abdiraham Bloomington, Minnesota On November 12, Mahad Abdiraham used a knife to attack two brothers in a Macy’s at the Mall of America. In January, Abdiraham pleaded guilty to two counts of first-degree assault, claiming that he was motivated by a “call for jihad” and that Americans will not be safe as long as the “country is at war with Islam.” Akayed Ullah New York City On December 11, Akayed Ullah, an ISIS-inspired individual, detonated an improvised explosive device on a New York City subway platform near the Port Authority Bus Terminal, injuring three. 2018 Threat Assessment 9 HVE Trends Vehicles as Weapons HVEs will likely continue using vehicles as weapons based on foreign terrorist organizations promoting this tactic, the success of past attacks, and the ease of vehicle acquisition. Over the past decade, this tactic has been used in 20 attacks in the West, according to an NJOHSP review. In the November 2016 edition of its Englishlanguage magazine, Rumiyah, ISIS encouraged followers to use vehicles in operations, stating, “Vehicles are like knives, as they are extremely easy to acquire [and] . . . arouse absolutely no doubts due to their widespread use throughout the world.” ISIS supporters have shared the article widely since its release. Additionally, AQAP has referred to trucks as the “ultimate mowing machine.” On October 31, an ISIS-inspired individual carried out an attack in lower Manhattan, killing eight and injuring 11. This was the second vehicle-ramming incident an HVE has conducted in the United States thus far, and the ninth such attack last year in the West. Highlight from ISIS’s “Just Terror Tactics” Vehicle Attacks in the West 12 11 10 8 6 4 3 3 In September, a Somali refugee in Canada used 2 a rented truck and a knife to attack a sporting 1 1 1 event honoring military personnel, injuring five. 0 2007-12 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 In November 2016, an individual drove his car into pedestrians and stabbed several people on Ohio State University’s campus, injuring 11. According to his family, he displayed no suspicious behavior before carrying out the attack and purchased a knife that same morning. Threat from Returning Foreign Fighters Last year, NJOHSP assessed that despite concerns regarding Americans who fought for terrorist groups overseas, New Jersey faces a minimal threat from returning foreign fighters. The threat remains low because of the comparatively small number of US persons who have traveled to join groups like ISIS and the likelihood they will not return to the United States. In 2018, foreign fighters will likely join other terrorist groups as ISIS loses territory and leaders. In October, the Pentagon’s Director of the Joint Staff stated that the military is currently “not seeing a lot of flow out of the core [ISIS] caliphate, because most of those people are dead now.” 295 Americans 4,200 Europeans 10 2018 Threat Assessment Number of foreign fighters who have attempted to travel to Iraq and Syria since 2011. WHAT DID WE LEARN ABOUT DOMESTIC TERRORISM IN 2017? Domestic Terrorism: A Changing Environment Throughout the last year, domestic extremist groups— particularly anarchists, militia members, and white supremacists—clashed, traveled across state lines, and were, at times, subject to foreign influence. Domestic terrorism is violence committed by individuals or groups— including race-based, single-issue, anti-government, and religious extremist ideologies—associated primarily with US-based movements. In September, anarchists armed with firearms held a rally in Kansas City, Missouri, “… to step up and respond to the threat these terrorist far-right militias and lone-wolfs [sic] pose to the people’s assemblies.” On February 11, 2017, members of a white supremacist group attacked two brothers in New York City after seeing an anti-fascist sticker on one of the victim’s cellphones, according to New York authorities. In August, white supremacists and militia members from at least 35 states—including New Jersey— traveled to Charlottesville, Virginia, for the “Unite the Right” rally, according to the Anti-Defamation League. In March, a white supremacist traveled from Maryland to New York and killed a black man as a “test run for a larger killing spree.” Over the last year, anarchists, militia members, and white supremacists received Russian propaganda online “through the targeted application of bots and person-to-person engagement,” according to a US think tank. In November, a US Senator revealed that a fake Russian Facebook account— with approximately 250,000 followers—encouraged armed white supremacists to attend a “Stop Islamization of Texas” protest opposing an Islamic center library in Houston in May 2016. 26 Attacks domestic extremists committed in 2017 15 Deaths as a result of these attacks Attacks in the United States, 2017 3 10 Race-Based 13 Anti-Government Single-Issue 2018 Threat Assessment 13 Domestic Extremists: Protest Tactics Amid violent confrontations at protests nationwide, anti-fascist anarchist extremists, militia extremists, and white supremacist extremists are shifting tactics to challenge opposing ideologies and avoid law enforcement detection. Below is an outline of the most common tactics extremist groups have employed. INTENT WEAPONS DEFENSIVE MEASURES Anti-fascist anarchist extremists… Seek to abolish the government and promote violence against those they perceive as racist or fascist. Attempt to stop the spread of hate speech and protest the government, asserting it protects white supremacists. Use improvised weapons and explosives, including bike locks, smoke bombs, and fireworks. Use accessible items, such as garbage cans, street signs, and disassembled police barricades. Wear all black clothing and integrate with groups of peaceful protesters to maintain anonymity. Bring gas masks and other personal protective equipment. Barricade streets using readily available items. TACTICS CASE STUDY 14 2018 Threat Assessment Share tactics on social media sites to improve techniques at future protests. On February 1, 2017, at the University of California Berkeley, anti-fascist anarchist extremists disrupted a controversial speaker’s appearance prior to the start of the event. Members infiltrated the peaceful protest to limit police response, set fires, attack event attendees, throw rocks, and shoot fireworks at law enforcement—causing approximately $100,000 in damage. Militia extremists… White supremacist extremists… View the federal government as an existential threat to the rights and freedoms of Americans, judging armed resistance as necessary to preserve these rights. Believe in the inherent superiority of the white race and seek to establish dominance over non-whites through violence. Attend protests, claiming to quell escalating situations, defend free speech, and “assist” law enforcement. Broadcast and defend their ideology while attempting to recruit new members. Bring a variety of tactical weapons, including military-style long guns and handguns, depending on the open carry laws of the state. Use non-lethal weapons, such as pepper spray, batons, and stun guns. Come equipped with partial or full military tactical gear, including ballistic vests, helmets, shields, and military fatigues. Conduct preoperational surveillance to find perceived weaknesses in policing strategies. Employ military tactics, such as squad movements and chain of command leadership. On March 26, during a protest in Oregon, a man affiliated with a local militia pepper-sprayed a state trooper while attempting to “assist” law enforcement during an altercation with counter-protesters. Authorities found him in possession of an illegal firearm. Use handheld items including bats, pipes, and sticks. Repurpose items like flagpoles and signs. Wear homemade or crude protective equipment, including helmets, chest guards, goggles, and respirators. Bring makeshift shields for added protection. Assemble prior to events, to march collectively as one unified group, in order to defend against counterprotesters. Line up side-by-side with shields out front to create a “shield wall.” On August 12, during the “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia—which was the largest gathering of white supremacists in over 10 years—a group of white supremacist extremists created a shield wall and charged at counter-protesters. 2018 Threat Assessment 15 White Supremacist Extremists Pose Multifaceted Threat In 2018, white supremacist extremists in New Jersey will likely continue to commit crimes, distribute propaganda to recruit new members, and intimidate minority populations. In 2017, an NJOHSP review revealed white supremacist extremist activity in 14 of the State’s 21 counties, with at least eight groups identified. Authorities in New Jersey arrested members of organized white supremacist crime rings, including Aryan Strikeforce in April 2017 and Atlantic City Skinheads in March 2016. These disruptions largely destroyed their criminal networks; however, lone offenders identifying with neo-Nazi and skinhead ideology continue to be involved in crime, including narcotics possession and distribution, theft, and firearms acquisition. Last year, white supremacist extremist groups distributed propaganda on at least five campuses in New Jersey, including Princeton University (Mercer County), Rutgers University (Middlesex County), and Stockton University (Atlantic County). These groups will continue national campaigns—such as Vanguard America’s “Northern Propaganda Campaign” and Identity Evropa’s “Project Siege”—targeting higher education institutions to recruit young, disenfranchised, educated white males. The campaigns intend to build membership and the capability to call on recruits to attend events nationwide. In July, an unknown suspect hung a Vanguard America banner with an anti-Semitic message over a Holocaust memorial in Lakewood Township (Ocean County). In February 2017, authorities discovered two fliers aimed at intimidating Muslim and Latino students at Rutgers University, New Brunswick (Middlesex County). Case Study: Aryan Strikeforce Joshua Steever 16 2018 Threat Assessment On April 13, the leader of Aryan Strikeforce—Joshua Steever of Phillipsburg (Warren County)—was arrested along with five other members for conspiring to sell methamphetamine, firearms, and machinegun parts to fund the organization’s activities. The defendants stored firearms and ammunition at locations in New Jersey and Pennsylvania and transported methamphetamine across state lines. Aryan Strikeforce claims to have over 30 chapters domestically and internationally, with the “goal to protect the honour of our women, children, and the future of our race and nation” using violence as a necessary tool, according to the federal indictment. In 2006, Steever was arrested in California for making racial slurs and threatening two black students with a knife and, in 2005, he was charged with felony aggravated assault. White Supremacist Attacks in 2017 John Young New York City On February 11, John Young and other members of a neo-Nazi group attacked and injured two men after noticing a sticker on one of their phones reading “New York City Anti-fascists.” James Harris Jackson New York City On March 21, James Harris Jackson, a self-identified white supremacist, traveled from Baltimore to New York City to “kill black men,” according to authorities. He murdered a black man with a sword and stated the attack was a “test run for a larger killing spree.” James Scott Lee Houston On May 3, James Scott Lee attacked a black man with a knife, yelled a racial slur, and stated, “I’m gonna kill me one today.” Media reports indicated Lee may be a member of the Aryan Brotherhood of Texas and wore a Nazi patch on his vest. Sean Urbanski College Park, Maryland On May 20, Sean Urbanski stabbed and killed a black man at the University of Maryland because of his race. Urbanski also participated in a Nazi-related Facebook group. Jeremy Christian Portland, Oregon On May 26, Jeremy Christian yelled anti-Muslim insults at two girls and slit the throats of three men who came to their defense, killing two. Christian espoused white supremacist views on social media and attended a rally in April where he shouted, “Die Muslims,” while giving a Nazi salute. Richard Preston Jr. Charlottesville, Virginia On August 12, Richard Preston Jr.—a leader of a Ku Klux Klan chapter—shot at a black man during the “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia. James Alex Fields Jr. Charlottesville, Virginia On August 12, James Alex Fields Jr. drove his car into counter-protesters at the “Unite the Right” rally, killing one and injuring 19. During the event, Fields participated in the protest with a white supremacist organization. Tyler Tenbrink, William Fears, Colt Fears Gainesville, Florida On October 19, three self-proclaimed white supremacists shot at protesters after a white supremacist event at the University of Florida. 2018 Threat Assessment 17 Militia Extremists: Shifting Focus in 2018 Militia extremist groups will focus on opposing immigration, challenging protest groups, and distancing themselves from white supremacist extremists as their grievances towards the federal government diminish. In 2017, there were no confrontations between militias and the federal government, compared to three incidents in 2016. In July, militia members in Texas attended a protest carrying firearms and wearing camouflage to support a bill restricting immigration rights, stating they were “concerned about where this great country is headed.” Additionally, a militia group from Alabama claims that since 2014 it has sent about eight volunteer teams to patrol for undocumented immigrants in Arizona and New Mexico. In June, militia extremists attempted to corral, tackle, and handcuff anti-fascist protesters on behalf of local law enforcement officers at a “free A militia group patrols Arizona’s border for illegal immigrants speech” rally in Portland, Oregon. In April, after a rally in Berkeley, California, a prominent militia leader declared victory against anti-fascist protesters in an after-action report posted to YouTube, predicting violence will escalate at such events. In August, a national militia group ordered members to stop participating in “white supremacist” events to avoid being “tainted by news outlets as they will most certainly report that we have aligned ourselves with white supremacists and Nazis.” Additionally, in June, at a rally in Houston a militia member choked and ejected a neo-Nazi from the protest for allegedly espousing inflammatory rhetoric. Militia Members on Trial On December 20, a federal judge in Las Vegas declared a mistrial for a case that commenced in October involving four individuals—brothers Ammon and Ryan Bundy, their father Cliven, and Ryan Payne—over a standoff in 2014 at the Bundy Ranch in Nevada. Their charges, which were all dropped on January 8, included an assault on a federal officer, carrying firearms in relation to a crime, and other felony conspiracy charges. For militia members, this trial reaffirms that federal government land should be under state control. Cliven Bundy 18 2018 Threat Assessment Ammon Bundy Ryan Bundy Ryan Payne HOW ARE INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST GROUPS PREPARING FOR 2018? ISIS: Maintaining a Global Presence Amid a Collapsing Caliphate Last year, ISIS suffered territorial and leadership losses in Iraq and Syria … To date, ISIS has lost more than 95 percent of its former territory since its peak in 2015, including its self-declared capital of Raqqa, Syria, in October. Additionally, in July, USbacked Iraqi forces defeated ISIS in Mosul, the largest city under its control, after a ninemonth battle. Last year, approximately 40 ISIS leaders— including external attack planners, propagandists, and battlefield commanders— were killed, according to US military officials. In May, US-led coalition forces killed the founder of ISIS’s news agency, and in January 2017, killed a senior ISIS propaganda official who helped establish Dabiq and Rumiyah— ISIS’s English-language online magazines. Official ISIS affiliates … reducing its ability to disseminate official propaganda … Since the loss of Raqqa, ISIS’s daily propaganda output decreased roughly 65 percent, according to a UK-based think tank. In October, for the first time in over a year, the group failed to publish Rumiyah, which was historically released during the first week of each month. … and forcing the group to rely on sympathizers and global affiliates to demonstrate its relevance. In late November, an ISIS supporter distributed a series of holiday-themed pictures, including an image encouraging an attack in New York City’s Times Square, which circulated on pro-ISIS Telegram channels and chat groups. The following month, Akayed Ullah detonated an improvised explosive device in the New York City subway, injuring three, claiming he “did it for the Islamic State.” ISIS claims to have a number of global affiliates and support groups in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, which continue to conduct operations in furtherance of the group’s ideology. For example, in October, militants killed four US soldiers in Niger. The attackers were assessed to be members of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, a pro-ISIS group, according to the Defense Intelligence Agency. The Manchester Concert Attack In May, ISIS claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing outside a concert arena in Manchester, UK. The device exploded as concertgoers were exiting the arena and moving into a connected train station, resulting in 22 deaths and more than 500 injuries, making it the deadliest terror attack in the UK since 2005. 2018 Threat Assessment 21 The Future of the al-Qa’ida Network Currently, al-Qa’ida is a decentralized organization allocating more autonomy to its affiliates, allowing the network to exploit local conflicts, and striving to appeal to a wider pool of recruits. In 2018… Al-Qa’ida (AQ) will continue to serve as the network’s religious authority and offer its followers strategic guidance, but will struggle to conduct attacks against the West. Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) will remain committed to attacking the West and releasing English-language propaganda encouraging lone-jihadist attacks. AQAP will continue to gain recruits from tribal factions in Yemen and benefit from government instability in the country. Al-Qa’ida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) will strive to mobilize Muslims in India and encourage attacks against the Indian government, where it has largely been unsuccessful. In the subcontinent region, AQIS will target Americans, foreign interests, military personnel, and law enforcement. AQIS will also continue to rely on the Taliban to provide safe havens for training camps in Afghanistan. Territory highlighted signifies area of operation, not control. 22 2018 Threat Assessment Al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) will focus on its regional operations in Mali, Mauritania, Libya, Tunisia, and Niger, and continue to target security personnel and facilities despite battlefield losses. The merger of AQIM and two local jihadist groups under the banner of Jama’at Nasr al-Islam Wal Muslim in March demonstrates the group’s desire to create a unified front against African coalition forces. AQIM will continue to finance its operations through kidnappingfor-ransom and other criminal activities. Al-Shabaab will target African Union Mission in Somalia forces, government bases, and soft targets, such as hotels and restaurants that foreign diplomats and government officials frequent. Funding for the group will come mainly from criminal activity, including the exploitation of the illicit charcoal trade and extortion of local populations and businesses. Nusrah Front will likely remain part of its current coalition, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham— focused on overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad—while attempting to establish an Islamic State in Syria. The future of Nusrah Front’s relationship with al-Qa’ida remains unclear. Territory highlighted signifies area of operation, not control. 2018 Threat Assessment 23 Al-Qa’ida Network: Propaganda Reflects Long-Term Strategy In 2018, the al-Qa’ida network will focus its propaganda efforts on regional conflicts, joint messaging to its followers, and strengthening solidarity among Muslims as a component of its long-term strategy. In 2017, al-Qa’ida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) encouraged its supporters to attack US interests in Pakistan, as well as Pakistani security forces in the region. Additionally, al-Qa’ida senior leadership released six speeches focused on the conflict in Syria. For example, in September, Hamza bin Ladin—a son of Usama bin Ladin—gave a speech calling for Muslims to unite under al-Qa’ida’s banner and to join the civil war in Syria. In February 2017, after the United States announced the death of Omar Abdul Rahman—known as the Blind Sheikh—al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Mahgreb issued a joint eulogy, the first of three joint statements between the groups. Furthermore, in September, AQAP and al-Shabaab issued coordinated statements after Burmese security forces attacked the Rohingya Muslim population, specifically calling on AQIS to aid them. Hamza bin Ladin In June, al-Qa’ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri released an audio message titled, “One Ummah [global Muslim community], One War on Multiple Fronts,” promoting the unity of Muslims regardless of nationality. In May, Qasim al-Rimi, the leader of AQAP, stated in a video, “We are a single united body. An American Muslim is the same as a Yemeni Muslim, and a Yemeni Muslim is the same as an Australian Muslim.” In 2017, the network released over 500 pieces of propaganda— including video messages, audio statements, online magazines, and testimonies—a 30 percent increase from the year before. Al-Qa’ida’s Goal Al-Qa’ida claims its long-term goal remains the creation of an Islamic state. The network views building a global capability of propaganda, people, and resources as essential to challenging Western influence in the Muslim world. Al-Nafeer Bulletin 24 2018 Threat Assessment As-Sahab Media Foundation publishes image of Ayman al-Zawahiri Global Islamic Media Front AQAP: Resilient Despite Turmoil in Yemen Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) remains committed to striking the West—through directed and inspired attacks—and maintaining a stronghold in Yemen, despite US counterterrorism operations and a civil war spanning more than three years. In 2017, the United States conducted over 120 airstrikes targeting AQAP strongholds, compared to 44 confirmed strikes in 2016 and 23 in 2015, according to a US-based think tank. In the 16th edition of Inspire, released in November 2016, AQAP cited the bombings Ahmad Rahimi conducted in New Jersey as a model for future attacks in the United States. This is the first time the group highlighted New Jersey in its Englishlanguage magazine. Following the 16th anniversary of 9/11, AQAP chief bomb-maker Ibrahim al-Asiri pledged his commitment to wage war against the United States, stating “America … roll up your sleeves for war as much as you can, for we by the power and strength of Allah, have rolled up ours. Expand the war as much as you want, for we are steadfast.” Since 2009, al-Asiri has plotted unsuccessfully to blow up airliners over the United States at least three times and likely remains active in Yemen. In April, AQAP published its fifth Inspire Guide, entitled “The British Parliament Operation in London,” praising the vehicle-ramming attack the month before. In May, AQAP released its first Inspire Address, a short video featuring AQAP leader Qasim al-Rimi, who emphasized that lone attackers in America “are situated in a place where [they] can harm our enemy. And so it is upon [them] to carry out that role.” Additionally, the 17th issue of Inspire magazine published in August, focused almost exclusively on the disruption of rail operations in the West. AQAP continues to garner support and recruits from local tribes in Yemen and maintains a close relationship with the larger al-Qa’ida network. To date, AQAP has recruited an estimated 4,000 followers, mostly from Yemeni tribes, according to the US Department of State. Additionally, the group still generates considerable revenue from its yearlong occupation of Mukalla—a port city in Yemen—which it held until April 2016. AQAP Leader Qasim al-Rimi Inspire Magazine Issue 17 released in August 2018 Threat Assessment 25 Hizballah Arrests Reveal Operational Presence in United States In June, federal authorities arrested Ali Kourani and Samer el Debek for material support to Hizballah’s Islamic Jihad Organization (IJO), demonstrating Hizballah maintains the capability to attack if the United States threatens the group’s vital interests—particularly its alliance with Iran. The IJO is Hizballah’s external terrorism unit responsible for attacks and intelligence gathering outside Lebanon and Israel. Hizballah relies on Iranian funding and serves as its global partner. In exchange, Iran provides an estimated $800 million annually and weapons to the group, according to a Western think tank. Kourani, of the Bronx, New York, described himself as a Hizballah “sleeper” agent—an individual placed in a country to gather information until instructed to conduct operations—and told authorities he was primarily tasked with surveillance. Over an eight-year period he collected intelligence on law enforcement, military, and aviation targets in New York City. Kourani and el Debek were not found with any weapons; however, both traveled to Lebanon multiple times to receive training in the use of firearms and explosives. El Debek, of Dearborn, Michigan, possessed a “high degree of technical sophistication” in bomb-making, according to the federal complaint. In 2010, the IJO reorganized and renewed its focus on coordinating with Iran to target American, Israeli, British, and Persian Gulf States’ interests internationally. This was driven in part by Iran’s concern over efforts to disrupt its nuclear program, including sanctions and assassinations. Hizballah has conducted contingency attack planning against Israeli, American, and allied interests worldwide and has pre-positioned explosive precursors for this purpose. Radicalization Timeline Ali Kourani 2000 2008 2009 2011 2009-15 Attended a 45-day Hizballah training camp Recruited to join the IJO Lied on a US citizenship application about his Hizballah affiliation and became a naturalized US citizen Attended an IJO training camp, received weapons training Conducted surveillance on US targets 26 2018 Threat Assessment HOW ARE TERRORISTS USING THE Cyberterrorism Threat Moderate; Use of Encryption, Dark Web, and Cryptocurrency Likely to Increase The New Jersey Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Cell (NJCCIC) assesses that the cyber threat to New Jersey posed by terrorist groups is moderate. We assess that terrorists will increasingly use encryption, the dark web, and cryptocurrencies for recruitment, to spread propaganda, encourage lone-wolf attacks, and facilitate their operations. Additionally, we assess that more technologically-capable actors will attempt, either successfully or unsuccessfully, to employ tactics used by state-sponsored hacking groups to conduct disruptive or destructive cyber-attacks. While terrorist groups and ideological hackers may not have previously possessed the capability to conduct sophisticated, coordinated cyber-attacks, the availability of potent hacking tools and unprotected networks greatly reduces the need for extensive technical skills to carry out successful cyber-attacks that could extensively disrupt or damage New Jersey’s critical infrastructure. Additionally, terrorists’ use of encrypted information and communications technology, the dark web, and cryptocurrencies will likely increase to aid in recruitment, to spread propaganda, to encourage lone-wolf attacks, in the planning and financing of their activities, and in the acquisition of weapons to conduct physical attacks against targets. In mid-2017, two large-scale disruptive and destructive cyber-attacks, WannaCry and Petya/ NotPetya, were conducted by nation-state actors and garnered global attention. These attacks exploited known vulnerabilities in widely-used software and leveraged supply chain compromise to greatly impact both direct and indirect targets, costing organizations hundreds of millions of dollars in damage and remediation costs and widely disrupting services including those provided by critical infrastructure. The tactics used in these attacks – exploiting well known vulnerabilities and targeting the supply chain – can be adopted by terrorists and used to develop disruptive and destructive cyberattacks. In 2018, we expect that most ideological hackers who are acting on behalf of, or inspired by, terrorist groups will continue to employ low-level cyber tactics that have minimal impact and pose limited to no threat to public safety. However, the widespread availability of formidable hacking tools along with millions of Internet-connected devices rife with vulnerabilities provides terrorists and other malicious actors with the means and opportunity to execute large-scale cyber-attacks causing significant damages. Challenges for Law Enforcement As encryption is increasingly becoming the standard for commercial off-the-shelf information and communications technology, terrorists and other criminals no longer need to possess advanced technical skills and knowledge to protect their communications from discovery and surveillance. This presents significant challenges to law enforcement, homeland security, and intelligence agencies’ efforts in identifying and disrupting terrorism plots before they reach the point of execution. Furthermore, dark web marketplaces are easy to access and can be used to purchase a variety of illicit goods, such as weapons. Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Monero, provide a nearly untraceable method of making illicit purchases, laundering money, and funneling funds. 2018 Threat Assessment 29 Removing Online Content Likely Limits Extremist Influence Social media companies have removed extremist content and suspended accounts, forcing extremists to move their Internet activities to less active platforms, limiting their potential influence. Since June, Google has removed 150,000 extremist videos and from August 2015 to February 2016, Twitter suspended over 636,000 accounts promoting terrorism. In October, Reddit, a social media platform, removed several neo-Nazi subreddits, or communities of interest, after updating its policy to suspend any content that “encourages, glorifies, incites, or calls for violence.” In 2015, Reddit banned numerous subreddits focused on hate speech, forcing many users to discontinue their interactions on the site. An analysis of 722 pro-ISIS Twitter accounts from February to April 2017 found Twitter removed 65 percent of accounts within 70 days of their creation, according to a European academic research network. These disruptions diminished ISIS’s “ability to facilitate and maintain strong and influential communities” online. In response to Twitter suspensions, ISIS supporters moved to Telegram—a messaging service that allows for encrypted communication—which has less than one-third of the users of Twitter. In 2016, a pro-ISIS media outlet expressed frustration over account suspensions and instructed followers to “return to Twitter and Facebook, for our missionary operations have greater reach on these platforms. Those we intend to reach are not on Telegram, rather we find them on Twitter and Facebook,” according to a terrorism research journal. How to Report Online Extremist Content Extremists will often post violent or threatening content on social media sites, such as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and Reddit. Below are instructions on how you can report extremist or illegal content. Facebook: To report a post or photo 1. Click . . . in the top right of the post 2. For friends click “Give feedback on this post” for non-friends click “Report” 3. Select the option that best describes the issue Twitter: To report a tweet 1. Click in the top right of the tweet 2. Select “Report tweet” 3. Select “It’s abusive or harmful” YouTube: To report a video 1. Sign in 2. Click . . . in the bottom right underneath the video Removal of Anwar al-Aulaqi Videos As of mid-November, YouTube removed almost 50,000 videos featuring radical cleric Anwar al-Aulaqi from its site. Aulaqi, an influential spokesperson for al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula, was killed in a US airstrike in 2011, but his teachings continue to inspire homegrown violent extremists in the United States, including the Fort Hood shooter in 2009, the Boston Marathon bombers in 2013, the San Bernardino shooters in 2015, and the Pulse nightclub shooter in 2016. 30 2018 Threat Assessment 3. Select the reason for flagging that best fits the violation in the video Reddit: To report a post 1. Sign in 2. Click report on the bottom right of the post 3. Select the appropriate description of the content HOW CAN WE WORK Security Starts with YOU NJOHSP’s Hometown Security Initiative is designed to train and educate Main Street owners and operators of facilities like restaurants, nightclubs, cafes, theaters, stores, and entertainment venues. Using the “Connect-Prepare-Train-Report” model, this initiative is intended to inform the public on global intelligence awareness, likely threat scenarios, protective security, and suspicious activity reporting. The program is being implemented statewide to increase community resilience, readiness, and overall security. 1-866-4-SAFE-NJ 2018 Threat Assessment 33 Suspicious Activity Reporting NJOHSP encourages the public, law enforcement, first responders, and our private- and publicsector partners to report suspicious activity that could be related to terrorism. In the last few years, reports in the tri-state area led to investigations that thwarted several terrorist plots. Here are a few incidents in which suspicious activity reporting helped uncover and disrupt possible attacks. Recent Success Stories Ocean County Incident: In May, a Point Pleasant Borough man was charged with plotting to build an improvised explosive device (IED) and detonate it in New York City in support of ISIS. The suspect, Gregory Lepsky, stated to authorities that he wanted to become a suicide bomber and “kill as many people as possible.” He claimed he joined ISIS after communicating with the terrorist group through social media and had purchased plane tickets to travel to Turkey. Success: Prior to Lepsky’s arrest, police submitted a suspicious activity report after a family member notified law enforcement that he had a weapon and was going to kill the family dog. During the course of the investigation, police discovered Lepsky had conducted research on how to construct an IED, specifically referencing the article “Make a Bomb in the Kitchen of Your Mom,” published in al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula’s English-language magazine, Inspire. Lepsky has been federally charged with attempting to provide material support to ISIS. Ocean and Union Counties Incident: In September 2016, IEDs were found at four locations in New Jersey and New York City. The first device exploded on September 17 in Seaside Park before the start of a charity run. The second explosion occurred on the same day in Manhattan, injuring 31. A third device was found undetonated a few blocks away. The following day, a fourth set of IEDs were found near the Elizabeth train station. Authorities arrested the suspect, Ahmad Khan Rahimi, after a shootout with police in Linden on September 19. In 2017, a federal jury convicted Rahimi of eight charges, including using a weapon of mass destruction, bombing a public place and interstate transportation of explosives. Success: Rahimi’s arrest was due to citizens reporting suspicious activity to local authorities. Four hours after law enforcement issued alerts with photos of Rahimi, a bar owner in Linden reported a man sleeping in the doorway of his establishment who resembled the suspect, leading to Rahimi’s arrest. The previous day, two men found a backpack containing a set of IEDs near the Elizabeth train station. They notified local police, who detonated the devices. Last year, Rahimi was found guilty in federal court. 34 2018 Threat Assessment How to Report Suspicious Activity Suspicious Activity Reporting NJOHSP encourages law enforcement, first responders, and our private- and public-sector partners to report suspicious activity. The “See Something, Say Something” campaign benefits families, friends, and neighbors by bringing suspicious behavior to the attention of law enforcement. Reporting suspicious behavior could potentially stop the next terrorist incident. Even if you think your observation is not important, it may be a piece of a larger puzzle. Public Engagement Suspicious activity reports (SARs) have led to investigations that thwarted several terrorist plots in the tri-state area. Read the Suspicious Activity Reporting Success Stories to learn how these reports helped detect and deter possible attacks. Information Sharing SARs are shared with law enforcement partners throughout the State. The New Jersey Suspicious Activity Reporting System is also linked to the FBI’s national system known as eGuardian, which partners with the Nationwide SAR Initiative to form a single repository accessible to thousands of law enforcement personnel and analysts nationwide. Report Suspicious Activity 1-866-4-SAFE-NJ (866-472-3365) tips@njohsp.gov njhomelandsecurity.gov/njsars “SAFE-NJ” Mobile SAR app is available on iTunes, Google Play, and Microsoft App Stores. 2018 Threat Assessment 35 New Jersey’s Disaster Behavioral Health System Community and business leaders, as well as ordinary citizens, should recognize that the primary motive of terrorists is to induce fear and create psychological, social, and economic disruption. Terrorism can undermine our sense of safety and erode trust in our ability to protect our communities and our trust in each other. The Disaster and Terrorism Branch (DTB) of the New Jersey Department of Health, is a multidisciplinary team comprised of behavioral health specialists, a law enforcement coordinator, and emergency response coordinators throughout the State. The Branch works on preparedness, response and recovery activities, and is the State authority responsible for coordinating the disaster behavioral health plan. New Jersey Department of Health Division of Mental Health & Addiction Services As a component of its recovery capabilities, the DTB administers New Jersey’s Disaster Response Crisis Counselor (DRCC) Program to ensure access to a well-trained and credentialed cadre of disaster counselors who can deploy to shelters, reception centers, family assistance centers and other designated areas to provide support and assistance. The DRCC program is open to individuals interested in providing emotional support to their communities and others around the state after disasters and violent events. More about the training and credentialing process can be found at www.njdrcc.org. The Disaster Mental Health Helpline In response to the September 11 disaster, a toll free Helpline was established through the Mental Health Association in New Jersey as a resource for persons seeking mental health services and information regarding other resources. The Helpline continues to be maintained and has been used to support the services of the Disaster and Terrorism Branch during times of declared disasters or incidents that significantly affect New Jersey’s communities. The Helpline has language access and 24 hour capability. (877) 294-HELP (4357) TTY (877) 294-4356 In September, the Disaster and Terrorism Branch joined NJOHSP’s podcast Intelligence. Unclassified. to discuss and bring awareness to the rarely talked about psychological impacts of terrorist attacks and other forms of mass violence. For more information on this and other topics related to counterterrorism, cybersecurity, and emergency preparedness, visit our website at www.njohsp.gov/podcast or subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, Google Play, or your preferred podcast application. 36 2018 Threat Assessment HOW DOES NJOHSP DEFINE Definitions Al-Qa’ida (AQ) - Al-Qa’ida is an Islamist extremist organization, founded in 1988 by Usama bin Ladin and other Arab foreign fighters who fought against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980s. It provides religious authority and strategic guidance to its followers and affiliated groups. Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) - AQAP is an Islamist extremist organization based in Yemen. It is al-Qa’ida’s most active global affiliate. Al-Qa’ida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) - AQIS is an Islamist extremist group that aims to fight the governments of Pakistan, India, Burma, Bangladesh, and to establish an Islamic state. Al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) – AQIM was formed in 2007 and is al-Qa’ida’s North African affiliate that aims to overthrow regional governments to institute an Islamic state. In March 2017, AQIM merged with several other regional groups to form Jama’at Nasr al-Islam Wal Muslim. Al-Qa’ida Network - The al-Qa’ida Network is a decentralized organization that relies on social ties and local relationships to share resources among the affiliates. Al-Shabaab - Al-Shabaab is an Islamist extremist organization founded in 2006 that seeks to establish an austere version of Islam in Somalia and also operates in Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda. Anarchist Extremists - Anarchist extremists advocate violence in furtherance of movements such as anti-racism, anti-capitalism, anti-globalism, anti-fascism, and environmental extremism. Animal Rights Extremists - Animal rights extremists believe all animals—human and non-human— have equal rights of life and liberty and are willing to inflict economic damage on individuals or groups to advance this ideology. Anti-Abortion Extremists - Anti-abortion extremists are individuals or groups who believe abortion is unethical and that violence is justified against people and establishments providing abortion services. Anti-Government Extremists - Anti-government extremists believe the US political system is illegitimate and force is justified to bring about change. This includes militia extremists and sovereign citizen extremists. Black Separatist Extremists - Black separatist extremists are individuals or groups that seek to establish an independent nation for people of African descent through violence and other criminal activity. Boko Haram - Boko Haram is an Islamist extremist organization based in northeastern Nigeria, which also conducts operations in Chad, Cameroon, and Niger. Domestic Terrorism - Domestic terrorism is violence committed by individuals or groups—including race-based, single-issue, anti-government, and religious extremist ideologies—associated primarily with US-based movements. Environmental Extremists - Environmental extremists view manmade threats to the environment as so severe that violence and property damage are justified to prevent further destruction. 2018 Threat Assessment 39 Definitions HAMAS - HAMAS, an acronym for Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiyya, or the “Islamic Resistance Movement,” founded in 1987, is an offshoot of the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood that aims to end the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory and establish a Palestinian state. Hizballah - Hizballah is an Islamist militant group based in Lebanon and allied with Iran. Homegrown Violent Extremists (HVEs) - HVEs are individuals inspired—as opposed to directed— by foreign terrorist organizations, and radicalized in the countries in which they are born, raised, or reside. ISIS - ISIS, also referred to as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, the Islamic State, or Daesh, is a Salafi-jihadist militant group that split from al-Qa’ida in 2014 and established its self-proclaimed “caliphate,” claiming authority over all Muslims. Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) - LeT is an Islamist extremist organization focused on attacking and expelling Indians from Kashmir, a northern state in India that borders Pakistan and is home to a Muslim-majority population. Militia Extremists - Militia extremists view the federal government as a threat to the rights and freedoms of Americans. They judge armed resistance to be necessary to preserve these rights. Nusrah Front - Nusrah Front is a member of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a Salafi-jihadist militant group in Syria, and is focused on overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In January 2017, the group broke official ties from al-Qa’ida. Race-Based Extremists - Race-based extremists seek to establish the superiority of one racial or ethnic group over others through violence or other criminal activity. This includes white supremacist and black separatist extremists. Salafi-jihadism - Salafi-jihadism is an extreme interpretation of Islam in which individuals draw inspiration from multiple foreign terrorist organizations. Single-Issue Extremists - Single-issue extremists participate in violence stemming from domestic political or economic issues. This includes animal rights extremists, environmental extremists, and anti-abortion extremists. Sovereign Citizen Extremists - Sovereign citizen extremists throughout the United States view federal, state, and local governments as illegitimate, justifying their violence and other criminal activity. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) - TTP is an Islamist extremist organization seeking to overthrow Pakistan’s government and expel US forces from Afghanistan. Terrorism - Terrorism is the unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives. White Supremacist Extremists - White supremacist extremists believe in the inherent superiority of the white race. They seek to establish dominance over non-whites through violence and other criminal activity. 40 2018 Threat Assessment WHAT PRODUCTS DID NJOHSP RELEASE IN 2017? Terrorism-Related Products International Terrorism Foreign Terrorist Propaganda - A Year in Review - http://bit.ly/2EjiOmB Children of the Caliphate - Young ISIS Returnees and the Reintegration Challenge http://bit.ly/2Fe6YLs Al-Qa’ida: Reasserting its Influence in Syria - http://bit.ly/2FcKAm1 Terrorist Organizations Continue Kidnapping Operations in Africa - http://bit.ly/2m5tfTd ISIS: Capable of Sophisticated Aviation Plot - http://bit.ly/2magXcY ISIS: Poised for Attacks in Europe and Australia - http://bit.ly/2CErxzn Counter-Jihad Movements and the European Far Right - http://bit.ly/2AE4B1g Attacks in Spain - http://bit.ly/2CT9QjC Hizballah: Recent Arrests Reveal Pre-Operational Planning - http://bit.ly/2COs0lx A Peek Inside the Caliphate - Examining Recent ISIS Propaganda - http://bit.ly/2CQ1UPX Extremists Poised to Continue Using Vehicles in Operations - http://bit.ly/2CSAMPP Al-Qa’ida Affiliates in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa - http://bit.ly/2AC5pDD Within the Pages of Rumiyah 11 - http://bit.ly/2CPZnpc ISIS: Continues to Withstand Leadership Losses - http://bit.ly/2m2AuLA Al-Qa’ida: Rise of Hamza Bin Ladin - http://bit.ly/2D8bcE4 Al-Qa’ida: Rebuilding Capabilities in Syria - http://bit.ly/2qDlwBe ISIS: Magazine Suggests Hostage Taking as a Tactic - http://bit.ly/2EjmTqM Rumiyah Issue 10 and the Rumored Death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - http://bit.ly/2CCMbQl New Propaganda Emphasizes Attacks at Large Gatherings - http://bit.ly/2CCpUlF London Vehicle and Knife Attacks - http://bit.ly/2AE74sy ISIS: Call for Ramadan Attacks - http://bit.ly/2EiZENq Manchester Suicide Bombing - http://bit.ly/2m4PPuZ AQAP: New Propaganda Emphasizes US Attacks - http://bit.ly/2EjgKuz Understanding Fidayin Attacks with Herbert Tinsley (START) - http://bit.ly/2AEbHTd ISIS: Paris Attack Highlights Threat to Law Enforcement - http://bit.ly/2mbViBf Analyst Roundtable Series - New Terrorist Propaganda - http://bit.ly/2qCWXEz 2018 Threat Assessment 43 Terrorism-Related Products ISIS Strikes Churches in Egypt - http://bit.ly/2maEDhj AQAP: Steadfast Intent to Target US Aviation - http://bit.ly/2qEJrjM Foreign Fighter Trends: Part One - Deputy Director Brian Dodwell (Combating Terrorism Center at West Point) - http://bit.ly/2CM6vSB Foreign Fighter Trends: Part Two - Amarnath Amarasingam (Institute for Strategic Dialogue) http://bit.ly/2D6pPrw ISIS Expands Weaponized Drone Program - http://bit.ly/2CTftyg ISIS: Deploying Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) - http://bit.ly/2D3Oug6 AQAP: Exploiting US Raid in Propaganda - http://bit.ly/2ADg1lV Al-Qa’ida Deputy’s Death Weakens Group in Syria - http://bit.ly/2CCaNso Foreign Fighters - America’s Returning Jihadists - http://bit.ly/2AEFMSJ Blind Sheikh’s Death Sparks Calls for Revenge - http://bit.ly/2mbdnzg Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula - A Persistent Threat to the West - http://bit.ly/2ACOjpg Rumiyah 6: A Further Signal of ISIS’s Decline - http://bit.ly/2FbXkct ISIS Preparing for a Difficult 2017 - http://bit.ly/2m8s7xU Domestic Terrorism New York City Subway Attack - http://bit.ly/2EbIJMZ Anti-Government Extremists: Lacking Explosive Expertise - http://bit.ly/2F8NVCq New York City Vehicle-Ramming Attack - http://bit.ly/2ABXG8B The Rise of #Vanguard #America - http://bit.ly/2D8cgYF HVEs: Radicalization Timeline and Trends - http://bit.ly/2mbMhbn White Supremacist Extremist Imagery - http://bit.ly/2AElPLH From Radicalization to Reconciliation, One Man’s Experience with White Supremacy (Part One) http://bit.ly/2CCZyQu From Radicalization to Reconciliation, One Man’s Experience with White Supremacy (Part Two) http://bit.ly/2qzdFoh Escalating Violence During Protests - http://bit.ly/2CP5N73 Vanguard America: Expanding Activities - http://bit.ly/2CBhLxI Patriotism, Dissent, and the Edge of Violence with Sam Jackson -http://bit.ly/2D8dpPX 44 2018 Threat Assessment Terrorism-Related Products Combating Domestic Terrorism with Thomas Brzozowski - http://bit.ly/2FbeNlf Avatars of the Earth - Eco-Radicals and CBRN Weapons - http://bit.ly/2CDcvcQ New Jersey: Family’s Report Thwarts Pressure-Cooker Bomb Plot - http://bit.ly/2Ekn6d4 Anarchist Extremists: Antifa - http://bit.ly/2tMN2gz The Face of White Supremacy in 2017 - http://bit.ly/2qyfCkI New Jersey: Anonymous Threats to Muslim Community - http://bit.ly/2CD6ehq Maryland: Father’s Tip Disrupts Possible Mass Shooting - http://bit.ly/2CPhGL0 White Supremacists: Rhetorical Shifts Unlikely to Deter Violence - http://bit.ly/2qz2iwM Vehicular Terrorist Attacks - Strategies for Safety and Survival - http://bit.ly/2ADI84m Anarchists: Targeting North Dakota Access Pipeline - http://bit.ly/2CRzy7U Environmental Extremists Vandalize Trump Golf Course - http://bit.ly/2m4I6gt Kansas Shooting: Possible Hate Crime - http://bit.ly/2FbgI9k Anarchist Extremists - A National Perspective - http://bit.ly/2qHvCBl Sovereign Citizen Extremists - Circumventing State Law - http://bit.ly/2CR5nxO Rise in Deadly Assaults Against Law Enforcement - http://bit.ly/2CP1Dg8 For more information on NJOHSP’s intelligence products, contact the Analysis Bureau at analysis@njohsp.gov. 2018 Threat Assessment 45 ohsp@njohsp.gov