MEMO
TO:
DOUG COLLINS FOR SENATE
FROM :
BATTLEGROUND CONNECT
RE:
GA-Senate Statewide Survey
Date:
July 14, 2020

Methodology: This survey of 600 likely November 2020 general election
voters in Georgia was conducted from July 6th to 8th, 2020. All interviews were
administered via telephone by professional interviewers with respondents
contacted by both landline phone and cell phone. Interview selection was
random and interviews were stratified by county, race/ethnicity, age and
gender to correlate with current voter registration statistics and actual voter
turnout from previous even-year November general elections.
In order to qualify for this survey, voters had to have voted in at least one of
the last two even-year November generals and indicate that they are likely to
vote in the November 2020 general election. In addition, this respondent
pool was supplemented with newer registrants who either weren’t eligible to
vote or didn’t vote in the 2018 midterm or 2016 presidential, but indicated a
likeliness to vote in November (8% of likely voter universe).
This poll of 600 likely November 2020 general election voters has an
accuracy of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval. The error margin
increases for cross-tabulations. Totals may not add up to exactly 100% due to
rounding and refusals.

Findings
Our latest internal poll reaffirms what our numbers have been showing all
along as well as what the latest available public polling is showing –
Congressman Doug Collins is ahead of Senator Kelly Loeffler due to his
significantly better performance among Republican voters and is wellpositioned to be the Republican candidate for the January runoff.

1. Despite being outspent $15.7 million to ZERO on TV,
mail, and radio, Doug Collins has a nine-point lead on
the jungle general ballot test.
On the five-way “jungle general” ballot test, Congressman Collins leads with
26%. Senator Loeffler is 9-points behind Collins receiving 17%, followed by
Matt Lieberman at 15%, Raphael Warnock at 10%, Ed Tarver at 5%, 2%
voting for someone else and 26% Undecided.

 2. Doug Collins has a 19-point lead on Kelly Loeffler
amongst Republican voters
Since this is about winning the “primary within the general,” it is most
important to look at how Republicans are voting. Among Republicans,
Congressman Collins has a 19-point lead over Loeffler – 50% to 31%, with
19% Undecided. Among conservative Republicans, Collins’ lead widens to 25points – 55% to 30%. A Republican candidate needs to win about 55% of the
Republican vote to advance to the runoff and Collins is nearly at that mark
already.
In addition to leading among Republicans, Congressman Collins is winning
with Independent voters. Among Independents, Collins leads with 20%,
followed by 13% for Lieberman, 13% for Loeffler, 10% for Warnock and 7%
for Tarver with 33% Undecided. These numbers indicate that it is
Congressman Collins – not Senator Loeffler – who is demonstrating the ability
to broaden the Republican/Trump coalition with his lead among
Independents.

3. Despite aggregate spending on voter contact in
excess of $15 million, Kelly Loeffler has a weak image
rating and appears to have reached the point of
diminishing returns
Congressman Collins lead is driven by the fact that he is personally much
more popular than Senator Loeffler and unlike Loeffler has virtually no
negatives. Among all voters, Congressman Collins is a 25% Favorable to 16%
Unfavorable – a 9-point net positive. On the other hand, Senator Loeffler is
underwater – 25% Favorable to 30% Unfavorable.
With Republicans, Congressman Collins has a +45 net-positive image rating –
49% Favorable to only 4% Unfavorable. While Senator Loeffler is also a net
positive among Republicans, her favorables are 7-points lower than Collins
and her unfavorables are three times higher – 42% Favorable to 14%
Unfavorable. With Collins being more popular than Loeffler among
Republicans, he is much better positioned to beat her in November.
Furthermore, among Republicans who are favorable to both Collins and
Loeffler, Collins has a greater than two to one lead – 64% to 27%. This is the
most illustrative example of how Collins is winning the popularity contest
over Loeffler among Republicans.

4. Kelly Loeffler’s “stock sale” is problematic. 49% of
respondents indicated that they could not support
her under any circumstances because of the “stock

 sale”. Under the unlikely scenario that Kelly Loeffler
is the Republican nominee in the January runoff, the
stock sale would almost guarantee that Democrats
flip this seat.
After the ballot test, voters were then asked about the stock trades that
Senator Loeffler has come under criticism for. They were first read a
statement detailing the facts that she traded millions of dollars of stocks
before the coronavirus spread in the United States, that she was investigated
for these actions, but the Department of Justice and the Senate Ethics
Committee decided not to press charges. Voters were then given three
statements and asked which one they agreed with most. Only 16% said
these stock trades were not an issue and they will continue supporting
Loeffler. Another 18% said that while she may have done something
improper, it wasn’t illegal and they would still consider supporting Loeffler.
However, the prevailing response was the nearly half (49%) of voters who
said that what Loeffler did was wrong and because of this they cannot
support her. It is clear that this issue is a fatal flaw for Loeffler and a reason
why she continues to trail Collins and will have difficulty cutting into his vote.
This issue caps her vote and would undoubtedly put this Senate seat in
jeopardy for Republicans if she were to advance to the runoff.