THE
CORONAVIRUS
ELECTION
Less Than 6 Weeks Until Voting
Begins
By Doug Sosnik
July 21, 2020

Doug Sosnik   1

 Americans Believe the Country is out of Control

 

Under control I Out of control I Some of both Not sure

All voters 15% 80%
Democrats 5% 92%

Independents

Republicans

GOP: Trump

GOP: GOP

Vote Trump

Vote Biden

Nat'l Guard in State

Nat'l Guard Not in State

 

60': 70': 80': 90': 100 :1
Source: News, 6/2/2020 Doug Sosnik 2

Americans Say the Coronavirus is Getting Worse
100
90
80

65%-Getting a Lot/Little Worse

70
60
50
40
30
20

23%-Getting a Lot/Little Better

10
0
Apr-20
Source: Gallup, 7/2/2020

Apr-20

May-20

May-20

Jun-20

Jun-20
Doug Sosnik   3

 Sharp Decline in GOP Satisfaction with the Way Things
are Going in the Country Today

Source: Pew Research Center, 6/22/2020

Doug Sosnik   4

 Overwhelming Number of Americans Believe that the
Country is on The Wrong Track
100
90
80
70

72%-Wrong Track

60
50
40
30

19%-Right Direction

20
10
0
Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Source: WSJ/NBC News, 7/17/2020

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20
Doug Sosnik   5

 Trump’s Job Approval Ratings have Remained Largely
Unchanged Since Taking Office
100
90
80
70

56%-Disapprove

60
50
40

42%-Approve

30
20
10
0
Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Source: WSJ/NBC News, 7/17/2020

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20
Doug Sosnik   6

 Trump’s Declining Job Overall Ratings Align Closely to his
Handling of COVID-19

Source: Johns Hopkins University, RealClearPolitics; 7/2/2020

Doug Sosnik   7

 Job Approval in First Term for Presidents Since 1980
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Week 1

Weeks into First Term
Week 20

Trump
Source: Gallup, 7/9/2020

Week 40

Week 60

Obama

Week 80

Bush 43

Fourth Year

Week 100 Week 120 Week 140

Clinton

Bush 41

Feb.

Reagan

July

Nov.

Carter
Doug Sosnik   8

 Trump v Biden Horserace

Biden has Maintained a Consistent Lead over Trump
100
90
80
70
60

51%-Biden

50
40

40%-Trump

30
20
10
0
Jul-19

Oct-19

Source: WSJ/NBC News, RV, 7/17/2020

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Jul-20
Doug Sosnik   9

 Wide Divides by Gender, Age, Education, and Race and
Ethnicity in 2020 Voter Preference
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Total

Men

Women

White

Black

Hispanic 18-29

Trump
Source: Pew Research Center, 6/22/2020

30-49

Biden

50-64

65+

Postgrad College Some
Grad
College

HS or
Less

Doug Sosnik   10

 Trump 2016 v 2020

Trump Loses Support Across Electorate Compared to 2016

Group

Donald Trump VS…
Clinton 2016

Biden 2020

Popular Vote

Clinton +2

Biden +11

White

Trump +20

Trump +7

Suburban

Trump +4

Biden +6

Men

Trump +12

Trump +2

Women

Clinton +13

Biden +23

White College Women

Clinton +7

Biden +28

White Non-College Women

Trump +27

Trump +10

White College Men

Trump +14

Biden +2

White Non-College Men

Trump +48

Trump +34

65+

Trump +7

Biden +1

Source: 2016 Exit Polls, WSJ/NBC News; 7/17/2020

Doug Sosnik   11

 2020 Presidential Map

Biden Currently has a Decisive Lead in Electoral College Voting

Solid D: 183 Votes

278

Votes

Likely D: 29 Votes
Lean D: 66 Votes

Toss Up: 91 Votes
Lean R: 44 Votes

169
Votes

Likely R: 48 Votes
Solid R: 77 Votes

Source: 270towin.com, 7/17/2020

Doug Sosnik   12

 Biden Leads Trump in Most Battleground States
State

Biden

Trump

Difference

Source

Arizona

49%

44%

Biden +5%

Ohio Predictive, 7/16

Florida

48%

42%

Biden +6%

CBS/YouGov, 7/12

Georgia

47%

45%

Biden +2%

Fox, 6/25

Iowa

43%

44%

Trump +1%

Des Moines Register, 6/15

Michigan

48%

42%

Biden +6%

North Carolina

47%

46%

Biden +1%

CNBC/Change Research,
7/15
CNBC/Change Research,
7/15

Ohio

45%

44%

Biden +1%

Quinnipiac, 6/24

Pennsylvania

50%

42%

Biden +8%

CNBC/Change Research,
7/15

Texas

45%

46%

Trump +1%

CBS/YouGov, 7/12

Biden +6%

CNBC/Change Research,
7/15

Wisconsin

48%

42%

Doug Sosnik   13

 Over 40% of Ballots in 2016 and 2018 were Cast
Before Election Day

Source: Thomas Wilburn/NPR, 6/4/2020

Doug Sosnik   14

 The 2020 Elections will See an Historic Level of
Early Voting

Source: National Conference of State Legislatures, Bloomberg; 7/21/2020

Doug Sosnik   15

 Preference for Control of Congress

Democrats have Decisive Advantage for Control of Congress
55

51%-Democratic-controlled
50

45

40

40%-Republican-controlled
35
Jun-16

Dec-16

Source: WSJ/NBC News, RV, 6/2/2020

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Doug Sosnik   16

 2020 Senate Race Ratings
Solid/Likely D

Lean D

Toss Up

Lean R

Solid/Likely R

Booker (D-NJ)
Coons (D-DE)
Durbin (D-IL)
Markey (D-MA)
Merkley (D-OR)
Open (D-NM)
Reed (D-RI)
Shaheen (D-NH)
Smith (D-MN)
Warner (D-VA)

Peters (D-MI)

Collins (R-ME)
Daines (R-MT)
Gardner (R-CO)
McSally (R-AZ)
Tillis (R-NC)

Ernst (R-IA)
Jones (D-AL)
Loeffler (R-GA)
Open (R-KS)
Perdue (R-GA)

Cassidy (R-LA)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Cotton (R-AR)
Graham (R-SC)
Hyde-Smith (R-MS)
Inhofe (R-OK)
McConnell (R-KY)
Moore Capito (R-WV)
Open (R-TN)
Open (R-WY)
Risch (R-ID)
Rounds (R-SD)
Sasse (R-NE)
Sullivan (R-AK)

Source: Cook Political Report, 6/18/2020

Doug Sosnik   17