Representative Sample of 660 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.8 percentage points Fielded July 27 – 30, 2020 Toplines Q5 Mayor This August, there will be an election for Mayor of the City and County of Honolulu and Honolulu Prosecutor. In the August primary for Mayor, which one of the following candidates* are you most likely to support? Rick Blangiardi Colleen Hanabusa Keith Amemiya Kymberly Pine Mufi Hannemann None of these candidates Not sure 27% 15% 15% 12% 8% 9% 13% *Note: The order in which the candidates' names were presented was randomized. 1 2 Representative Sample of 660 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.8 percentage points Fielded July 27 – 30, 2020 Q6 Focus When choosing which candidate to support for Honolulu Mayor, which of the following is more important to you – choosing a candidate who will focus on keeping us safe, or choosing a candidate who will focus on getting the economy moving again? Safety Economy Not sure 44% 40% 17% Q7 Leadership When choosing which candidate to support for Honolulu Mayor, which of the following is more important to you – choosing a mayor with political leadership experience or choosing a mayor who has a fresh approach to governing? Experience Fresh approach Not sure 26% 55% 19% Q4 Caldwell Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell? Positive Negative Unsure Oahu 36% 38% 27% (Neighbor Islands) 35% 23% 43% (Total Statewide) 35% 33% 32% Representative Sample of 660 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.8 percentage points Fielded July 27 – 30, 2020 Crosstabs Q5 Mayor In the August primary for Mayor, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to support? Blangiardi Hanabusa Amemiya Pine Hannemann None Unsure Gender Male Female 29% 26% 10% 18% 15% 15% 14% 11% 10% 7% 11% 8% 11% 15% 100% 100% Age 18-49 Blangiardi Hanabusa Amemiya Pine Hannemann None Unsure 16% 9% 13% 17% 9% 13% 22% 100% 50 or older 31% 17% 16% 11% 8% 7% 10% 100% 3 Representative Sample of 660 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.8 percentage points Fielded July 27 – 30, 2020 Ancestry Blangiardi Hanabusa Amemiya Pine Hannemann None Unsure Blangiardi Hanabusa Amemiya Pine Hannemann None Unsure Blangiardi Hanabusa Amemiya Pine Hannemann None Unsure Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese 34% 27% 13% 26% 20% 18% 13% 17% 13% 24% 12% 26% 15% 14% 15% 11% 6% 18% 19% 8% 3% 10% 8% 13% 12% 8% 7% 4% 13% 7% 14% 12% 25% 2% 16% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% CollegeDeg College No college Degree degree 25% 27% 15% 15% 19% 10% 12% 15% 8% 10% 7% 11% 14% 12% 100% 100% Party Democrat Republican Independent 22% 34% 31% 25% 2% 8% 22% 7% 8% 10% 14% 19% 6% 10% 13% 3% 22% 10% 12% 10% 12% 100% 100% 100% 4 Other/Mixed Ancestry 29% 10% 8% 16% 9% 13% 16% 100% Representative Sample of 660 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.8 percentage points Fielded July 27 – 30, 2020 Blangiardi Hanabusa Amemiya Pine Hannemann None Unsure Blangiardi Hanabusa Amemiya Pine Hannemann None Unsure Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative 16% 25% 35% 29% 13% 5% 19% 20% 9% 18% 9% 15% 3% 14% 7% 3% 7% 18% 12% 12% 11% 100% 100% 100% Income Less than $50,000More than $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 27% 24% 30% 19% 16% 13% 12% 16% 18% 13% 16% 9% 8% 8% 6% 14% 7% 11% 7% 13% 14% 100% 100% 100% 5 Representative Sample of 660 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.8 percentage points Fielded July 27 – 30, 2020 6 Q6 Focus When choosing which candidate to support for Honolulu Mayor, which of the following is more important to you – choosing a candidate who will focus on keeping us safe, or choosing a candidate who will focus on getting the economy moving again? Keep safe Economy Unsure Gender Male Female 38% 48% 50% 32% 12% 20% 100% 100% Age 18-49 Keep safe Economy Unsure 45% 41% 14% 100% 50 or older 43% 39% 18% 100% Ancestry Keep safe Economy Unsure Keep safe Economy Unsure Other/Mixed Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Ancestry 50% 45% 22% 51% 45% 39% 40% 39% 53% 35% 32% 41% 11% 16% 26% 14% 23% 20% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% CollegeDeg College No college Degree degree 49% 39% 39% 41% 13% 19% 100% 100% Representative Sample of 660 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.8 percentage points Fielded July 27 – 30, 2020 Keep safe Economy Unsure Keep safe Economy Unsure Keep safe Economy Unsure Blangiardi Hanabusa Amemiya Pine Hannemann None Unsure Party Democrat Republican Independent 55% 31% 36% 29% 61% 44% 17% 8% 20% 100% 100% 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative 70% 44% 29% 20% 40% 62% 11% 16% 10% 100% 100% 100% Income Less than $50,000More than $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 50% 49% 40% 36% 35% 50% 15% 16% 10% 100% 100% 100% Focus Keep safe Economy Unsure 23% 32% 26% 21% 7% 17% 20% 11% 11% 13% 13% 8% 9% 11% 3% 4% 16% 8% 10% 11% 28% 100% 100% 100% 7 Representative Sample of 660 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.8 percentage points Fielded July 27 – 30, 2020 8 Q7 Leadership When choosing which candidate to support for Honolulu Mayor, which of the following is more important to you – choosing a mayor with political leadership experience or choosing a mayor who has a fresh approach to governing? Experience Fresh approach Unsure Gender Male Female 28% 24% 58% 54% 14% 22% 100% 100% Age 18-49 Experience Fresh approach Unsure 26% 54% 20% 100% 50 or older 25% 57% 18% 100% Ancestry Experience Fresh approach Unsure Experience Fresh approach Unsure Other/Mixed Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Ancestry 27% 28% 18% 24% 31% 22% 59% 57% 53% 59% 45% 57% 14% 15% 30% 17% 24% 21% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% CollegeDeg College No college Degree degree 29% 22% 58% 55% 13% 23% 100% 100% Representative Sample of 660 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.8 percentage points Fielded July 27 – 30, 2020 Experience Fresh approach Unsure Experience Fresh approach Unsure Experience Fresh approach Unsure Party Democrat Republican Independent 33% 16% 19% 46% 72% 64% 20% 12% 18% 100% 100% 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative 38% 26% 20% 44% 56% 67% 18% 18% 13% 100% 100% 100% Income Less than $50,000More than $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 23% 25% 26% 60% 64% 59% 17% 11% 15% 100% 100% 100% Leadership Blangiardi Hanabusa Amemiya Pine Hannemann None Unsure Experience 10% 34% 7% 13% 21% 2% 13% 100% Fresh approach Unsure 38% 18% 5% 17% 22% 5% 14% 8% 3% 8% 11% 15% 7% 30% 100% 100% 9 10 Representative Sample of 660 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.8 percentage points Fielded July 27 – 30, 2020 Q4 Caldwell (Oahu only) Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell? Gender Male Positive Negative Unsure 38% 38% 24% 100% 34% 37% 29% 100% 37% 42% 22% 100% 50 or older 36% 36% 29% 100% Age 18-49 Positive Negative Unsure Female Ancestry Positive Negative Unsure Positive Negative Unsure Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese 31% 49% 39% 33% 35% 39% 35% 31% 47% 29% 31% 16% 30% 20% 36% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% CollegeDeg College No college Degree degree 39% 34% 36% 39% 25% 27% 100% 100% Other/Mixed Ancestry 27% 41% 32% 100% Representative Sample of 660 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.8 percentage points Fielded July 27 – 30, 2020 Positive Negative Unsure Positive Negative Unsure Positive Negative Unsure Party Democrat Republican Independent 43% 24% 34% 28% 50% 47% 29% 26% 19% 100% 100% 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative 41% 41% 28% 30% 33% 50% 29% 26% 22% 100% 100% 100% Income Less than $50,000More than $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 37% 34% 39% 41% 37% 42% 22% 29% 19% 100% 100% 100% Caldwell Positive Negative Unsure Blangiardi 20% 36% 24% Hanabusa 18% 10% 17% Amemiya 17% 14% 13% Pine 12% 14% 11% Hannemann 12% 6% 8% None 7% 14% 6% Unsure 13% 8% 21% 100% 100% 100% 11 Representative Sample of 660 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.8 percentage points Fielded July 27 – 30, 2020 12 About the Poll Civil Beat surveyed a random sample of 975 registered voters statewide. Surveys were fielded from July 27 – 30, 2020, using a combination of interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling) and a survey administered online. Both the touch-tone and online version of the poll were conducted using random, probability-based sampling of registered voters in Hawaii. The touch-tone version was conducted by contacting landline telephones. The online version was conducted by texting cellphones and linking poll participants to an online survey optimized for smartphones. Questions in the telephone and online versions of the survey were nearly identical, other than differences necessitated by the different platforms. The text-to-online version of the poll replaces our former method of contacting cellphones via live call agents, but retains the same method to identify a randomly-selected subset of registered voters to contact. The new (text) method yielded a much higher survey completion rate and a more demographically diverse set of respondents than did the previous (cellphone) method. Approximately two thirds of the total sample completed the poll via landline and the other one third completed it via text-to-online. Results were adjusted for voter likelihood and also balanced for gender, age, ancestry/ethnicity/race, county and Congressional District of residence, and education (college degree attainment) to match the demographic parameters of registered voters statewide. The overall margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates and design effect (the effect of weighting results based on demographics) are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The adjusted margin of error, accounting for the design effect is +/- 3.8 percentage points. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result. The total sample included 660 registered voters on Oahu (margin of error +/- 3.8 percentage points). The adjusted margin of error for Oahu, accounting for the design effect is +/- 4.7 percentage points. Some columns may sum to totals slightly higher or lower than 100% due to rounding. The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with MRG Research, a public opinion research organization specializing in issues and candidate polling, message testing, and persuasive communications. Twitter: @MRG_Research