Millages Expiring in 2021 Rededication Proposal City of New Orleans August 17th, 2020 Contents 1. Fiscal Landscape Prior to COVID-19 2. Impacts of COVID-19 3. Expiring Millages Background 4. Proposed Millage Rates, Revenues, and Uses 5. Taxpayer Impact 6. Impacts to New Orleans Public Library (NOPL) 7. Timeline 2 1 FISCAL LANDSCAPE PRIOR TO COVID-19 Ongoing Financial and Operational Initiatives The Administration has already undertaken efforts to improve the operational and financial capacities of the City Financial Operational ▪ Shifting Pressures from the City’s operating to capital budget ▪ Maintaining core government services while managing emergency situations ▪ Diversifying the City’s revenue and funding sources → shifting one-time revenues to one-time expenses ▪ Transitioning to the Zero-Based Budgeting (ZBB) methodology ▪ Better management of reserve funding (Emergency Savings Fund) ▪ Implementing the City’s Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system ▪ Assessed and diversified the City’s investment portfolio ▪ Analyzing shift deployment structures for public safety agencies 4 IMPACTS OF COVID-19 Economic Impact of COVID-19 Significant economic impact is expected throughout 2020 and into 2021 LOUISIANA TAX REVENUES HAVE NOT YET RECOVERED FROM THE 2008 GREAT RECESSION ▪ US Real GDP declined 5.0% in Q1. ▪ US Real GDP declined 32.9% in Q2. - This represents the sharpest economic contraction in modern American history. LOUISIANA TAX REVENUE STREAMS IN PRIOR CRISES HISTORICAL YEAR OVER YEAR CHANGE IN GDP AND TAXES GDP Individual Income Tax Sales Tax Corporate Tax Excise Tax Other Tax Total Lost Revenue GREAT RECESSION (2009) POST KATRINA -4% -7% -12% -4% -9% -16% -13% -20% -28% -26% 24% -38% -1% -20% ▪ Louisiana Real GDP declined 6.6% in Q1. ▪ Louisiana Real GDP is expected to decline at least 10.5% in Q2. - Updated statistics will be released October. ▪ Unemployment Insurance (UI) Claims - Since reopening, the City has averaged 44K total UI Claims per week. 6 New Orleans is Uniquely Vulnerable and Could Struggle to Recover COVID-19 health vulnerability vs. Years until real GDP reaches Q1 2020 for selected peer cities 7 Sensitivity Analysis pr?thesiS-based sensitivity. Not meant in be a firm view. AS OF 13 APRIL 2020 . 255% ?5?55% .