About Us Shortly after the tragic events of September 11, 2001, New Jersey’s legislature and Governor passed and signed the Domestic Security Preparedness Act, which created the Domestic Security Preparedness Task Force within the Office of the Attorney General. In 2002, the Governor created the Office of Counterterrorism (OCT) by Executive Order, which remained under the Attorney General. OCT provided New Jersey with a single agency to lead and coordinate New Jersey’s counterterrorism efforts with state, local, and federal authorities and with the private sector. OCT remained in place until 2006, when it was reorganized—again by Executive Order—into the New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness (NJOHSP), bolstering New Jersey’s resources for counterterrorism, critical infrastructure protection, emergency preparedness, training, and federal grants management. NJOHSP was tasked with coordinating counterterrorism and emergency response efforts across all levels of government, law enforcement, emergency management, nonprofit organizations, and the private sector. Mission NJOHSP leads and coordinates New Jersey’s counterterrorism, cybersecurity, and emergency preparedness efforts while building resiliency throughout the State. Core Values SERVICE. We put our State and its citizens first, and we put Mission before self. We take pride in being timely, agile, and relevant. TEAMWORK. We stand with and behind each other. We recognize that partnerships, both internal and external, are critical to achieving success. We cannot fulfill our Mission alone. EXCELLENCE. We take great pride in the quality of our work. We do every task, every project, every initiative, to the best of our ability. DIVERSITY. We strive to build a workforce that is as diverse as New Jersey’s citizenry. We pride ourselves on encouraging diversity of thought, perspective, and problem solving. 1 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment Foreword On Saturday, September 17, 2016, the citizens of New Jersey witnessed a horrifying event as visitors to Seaside Park in Ocean County were rattled by an explosion minutes before a US Marine Corps 5K run. The series of bombings that followed in New York City and Elizabeth were a stark reminder of the very real threat we face from individuals who want to disrupt our way of life. No longer was terrorism over there; it had arrived here in our backyard. But out of the terror came hope. From the members of the public who led Linden police to Ahmad Rahimi’s location as well as the site of other planted bombs, to the heroes who ultimately detained Rahimi at great personal risk, to the collaboration and mission focus that characterized the subsequent federal, state, and local investigation, we in New Jersey—once again—showed how resilient we are in the face of great danger. This event, combined with the horrific shooting in Orlando and other brutal attacks abroad in 2016, reminded us that the greatest terror threat we face is from homegrown violent extremism. This is largely because the violence some individuals are committed to carrying out is so difficult for homeland security and law enforcement to detect and deter. Add to this the dramatic rise in domestic terrorism across our country from race-based, single-issue, anti-government, and religious-based extremists, particularly against law enforcement and first responders, and it is clear our threat landscape has expanded dramatically in the last year. These circumstances dictate that the New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness (NJOHSP) redouble its efforts to produce finished intelligence that informs local action, invests more personnel and resources in strategic partnerships at the federal, state, and local levels, and directly engages the public in awareness campaigns that push the “See Something, Say Something” message. In the next year and beyond, we are committed to these actions—and as a result, the dedicated professionals at NJOHSP make this pledge to you: We will do everything we can to ensure that you and your families are safe and secure. But we cannot fulfill this pledge alone. We need your support and partnership. We are all responsible for keeping our communities safe, so please remember—if you see something, say something by reaching out to us at 1-866-4-SAFE-NJ (866-472-3365) or e-mail tips@njohsp.gov. Sincerely, Dr. Christopher Rodriguez Director, NJOHSP January 2017 (Photo: Michael Karas/Northjersey.com) Foreword 2 Table of Contents 4 What Groups Pose the Greatest Threat to New Jersey in 2017? Assessed Threat Level 6 What Did We Learn About Homegrown Violent Extremism in 2016? New Jersey and New York Bombings, September 17-19 Case Studies: Discerning Key Trends Anwar al-Aulaqi: Inspiring Jihadists Five Years After His Death Arrests in the Tri-State Area 12 How Is Domestic Terrorism Evolving? Rise in Deadly Assaults Against Law Enforcement White Supremacist Attacks in the United States, 2016 Sovereign Citizen Extremists Flouting Laws Fewer Militia Run-Ins With US Government Likely Anarchists Mobilizing Amid Civil Unrest Domestic Terrorism Publications in 2016 20 What Does 2017 Look Like for ISIS and AQAP? ISIS Losses in Iraq and Syria Could Spur More External Operations AQAP: Using New Jersey Bombings to Inspire Others Returning Jihadists Pose Low Threat 24 What Cyberterrorism Risks Do We Face? Threat Low Despite “Kill Lists” 26 What Can NJOHSP Do For Me? Security Starts With YOU 28 What Did NJOHSP Do in 2016? Notable Deliverables 30 How Does NJOHSP Define Terrorist Groups? 3 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment Assessed Threat Level High Homegrown Violent Extremists Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula Anarchist Extremists Black Separatist Extremists Moderate Islamic State of Iraq and Syria Militia Extremists Sovereign Citizen Extremists White Supremacist Extremists Al-Qa’ida Al-Qa’ida in the Indian Subcontinent Al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb Al-Shabaab Animal Rights Extremists Anti-Abortion Extremists Low Boko Haram Environmental Extremists HAMAS Hizballah Lashkar-e-Tayyiba Nusrah Front Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan Changes from 2016 Anarchist Extremists The threat from anarchist extremists increased from low to moderate in 2017. Last year, this group organized and directed counter-protests during white supremacist rallies and incited violence during anti-law enforcement and post-US presidential election protests. Anti-Abortion Extremists In 2016, NJOHSP began assessing anti-abortion extremists because of a nationwide increase in threats against abortion facilities in 2015, when an extremist killed three and wounded six at a Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado. Black Separatist Extremists The threat from black separatist extremists increased from low to moderate in 2017. Last year, extremists killed eight and injured 17 in response to perceived police brutality—compared to zero such incidents in 2015. 5 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment Case Studies: Discerning Key Trends Ahmad Rahimi An NJOHSP nationwide review of homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) in 2016 reveals common personal characteristics and tactics prior to an attack. These findings suggest that despite the inherent difficulties of detecting and deterring HVE activity, there are multiple disruption points along the path to an operation, including a heavy reliance on public reporting of suspicious behavior. The case studies below highlight these opportunities. Historical studies of HVEs across the United States show analogous trends. On September 17, Rahimi conducted a series of bombings in Seaside Park (Ocean County) and New York City, injuring 31. Most HVEs . . . Rahimi . . . Choose targets proximate to their residences and in areas of relative familiarity. Placed the bombs in locations easily accessible from his home in Elizabeth (Union County). Display troubling behavior observable to associates, friends, and family members. Displayed radical viewpoints to family members after trips to Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2011 and 2013-14. Although Rahimi’s father reported his son to local law enforcement, which led to a federal investigation, he later recanted concerns about Rahimi’s behavior. Are influenced by multiple terrorist organizations while adhering to Salafi-jihadism, an extremist interpretation of Islam. Cited deceased al-Qa’ida cleric Anwar al-Aulaqi and former Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) propagandist Abu Mohammad al-Adnani as inspirations for the bombings. Use easily acquired weapons. Built improvised explosive devices from materials purchased at local stores, using online instructions. Act alone or in small groups. Acted alone. What Did We Learn About Homegrown Violent Extremism in 2016? 8 Omar Mateen Abdul Artan On June 12, Mateen killed 49 and wounded 53 at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando. On November 28, Artan drove his car into pedestrians on Ohio State University’s campus in Columbus and then stabbed several people, injuring 11. Mateen . . . Artan . . . Conducted surveillance at Pulse prior to the attack. Attended classes at Ohio State University. Told co-workers in 2013 his family was linked to al-Qa’ida and that he was a Hizballah member. Did not display suspicious or terrorist-related behavior prior to the operation, according to family members; however, the federal investigation is ongoing. Watched videos of ISIS beheadings and Aulaqi. During the shooting, Mateen called 9-1-1 and identified himself as “Mujahideen,” an “Islamic Soldier,” and a “Soldier of God,” pledging allegiance to ISIS and citing the Boston Marathon bombers and a Florida resident who joined an alQa’ida group in Syria. Referenced Aulaqi in a Facebook post before the attack. Law enforcement officials suspect Artan may have read ISIS’s English-language magazine Rumiyah, which provides instructions on how to use a vehicle to inflict mass casualties. Legally purchased a semiautomatic rifle and a handgun two weeks prior to the shooting. Used his vehicle and a knife purchased the morning of the attack. Acted alone. Acted alone. 9 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment Domestic Terrorism Publications in 2016 January 14: Militia Standoff in Oregon www.njohsp.gov/analysis/militia-standoffin-oregon July 5: Mass Shootings in the US, January 2015 to June 2016 www.njohsp.gov/analysis/massshootings March 28: Podcast Episode 11: Mass Shootings - Defining a Phenomenon www.njohsp.gov/media/podcast-massshootings July 5: Podcast Episode 26: Domestic Terrorism Conference Recap www.njohsp.gov/media/podcast-dtconference April 18: Podcast Episode 14: One-on-One with Lauren Steinberg www.njohsp.gov/media/podcast-laurensteinberg July 18: Recent Attacks on Law Enforcement www.njohsp.gov/analysis/recent-attacks-onlaw-enforcement May 18: Oregon Standoff Bundle www.njohsp.gov/analysis/oregonstandoff May 31: Podcast Episode 20: Round Two with J.M. Berger www.njohsp.gov/media/podcast-jm-berger June 6: Podcast Episode 22: One-on-One with J.J. MacNab www.njohsp.gov/media/podcast-jj-macnab June 28: Podcast Episode 25: One-on-One with Thomas Brzozowski www.njohsp.gov/media/podcast-thomasbrzozowski 19 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment July 20: Washitaw Nation: Non-Violent in New Jersey www.njohsp.gov/analysis/washitawnation July 25: Podcast Episode 29: Sovereign Citizen Extremists www.njohsp.gov/media/podcast-sovereigncitizen-extremists September 26: Overlap Between Black Separatists and Moorish Sovereign Citizen Extremists www.njohsp.gov/analysis/overlap-betweenblack-separatists-and-moorish-sovereigncitizen-extremists AQAP: Using New Jersey Bombings to Inspire Others I n November 2016, al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) cited the bombings in New Jersey as a model for future attacks in the United States, the first time the group has highlighted New Jersey in its English-language magazine Inspire. This 16th edition of Inspire also noted the attacks in New York City and Minnesota, continuing AQAP’s longstanding trend of capitalizing on events it views as successful to motivate homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) in the West. In the same edition, AQAP referred to the New Jersey and Minnesota attackers—Ahmad Rahimi and Dahir Adan—as “heroes of the Lone Jihad” and declared their efforts as “a new form of operations and a new form of tactics.” AQAP uses Rahimi as an instructive case study on how to improve planning and execution in future terrorist operations. Inspire discusses the timing, targets, and methods Rahimi used, offering that a remote-controlled device is more effective than a timer because the operator has more control over detonation. The Seaside Park bomb, which was on a timer, detonated in advance of runners gathering for the start of the race. Despite no deaths in New Jersey or New York, Inspire claimed “the American citizen will definitely feel and live in a state of fear and instability,” and the United States was “exhausted by a single operation.” AQAP remains a persistent threat to the West because of its proven ability to incorporate, train, and deploy operatives abroad; the group also has maintained a territorial foothold in Yemen, giving it space to plan and finance operations. AQAP has not attempted to attack the United States since 2012, when a foiled plot against a US-bound airliner, conceived by the group’s chief bombmaker Ibrahim al-Asiri, was disrupted. The group last struck in the West in January 2015, when brothers Cherif and Sa’id Kouachi killed 12 and injured 11 at the offices of Charlie Hebdo in Paris after receiving weapons training in Yemen. AQAP’s Inspire magazine highlighting the bombings in New Jersey. While occupying the Yemeni port city of Mukalla from 2015 to April 2016, the group reportedly raided a city bank of $100 million and collected approximately $2 million per day in “taxes” on goods entering the port. AQIS: Threatening New Jersey In April 2016, a group claiming affiliation with al-Qa’ida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) threatened an NJOHSP official on Facebook. One month prior, a Bangladeshi proAQIS Facebook page urged militants in the United States to attack 10 US-based universities, including Princeton University (Mercer County). What Does 2017 Look Like For ISIS and AQAP? 22 Notable Deliverables T his data includes the combined efforts of NJOHSP’s four Divisions—Intelligence, Policy and Planning, Cybersecurity, and Administration—from July 2015 to June 2016. Category FY16 FY15 FY14 External Briefings 828 N/A N/A Written Publications 607 380 N/A Weekly Recipients of NJOHSP Publications 8,352 3,100 N/A In-Person Training and Exercises Delivered 257 186 203 NJLearn Training Completionsa 96,752 76,223 91,720 Critical Infrastructure Assessments 136 78 N/A NJCCIC Members 2,792 980 N/I Webinars and Podcasts 40 13 N/A Key N/A - This metric was not tracked systematically. N/I - New NJOHSP initiative. Footnotes a NJLearn is an NJOHSP-managed Learning Management System that develops and presents critical online training for sworn law enforcement and first responders in New Jersey. 29 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment Al-Qa’ida Al-Qa’ida is an Islamic extremist organization founded in 1988 by Usama Bin Ladin and other Arab foreign fighters who fought against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) AQAP is an Islamic extremist organization based in Yemen. It is al-Qa’ida’s most active global affiliate. Al-Qa’ida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) AQIS is an Islamist extremist group that aims to fight the governments of Pakistan, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka to establish an Islamic State. Al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) AQIM became al-Qa’ida’s North Africa affiliate in 2006. AQIM was formerly known as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, a splinter group of the Armed Islamic Group, both of which fought against Algeria’s secular government. Al-Shabaab Al-Shabaab is an Islamic extremist organization seeking to establish an austere version of Islam in Somalia. In addition to Somalia, the group operates in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Tanzania. Anarchist Extremists Anarchist extremists advocate violence in furtherance of submovements such as anti-racism, anti-capitalism, anti-globalism, and environmental extremism. Animal Rights Extremists The goal of animal rights extremists is to inflict economic damage on individuals or groups that believe all animals—human and non-human—have equal rights of life and liberty. Animal rights extremists are willing to conduct criminal activity to advance this ideology. Anti-Abortion Extremists Anti-abortion extremists are individuals or groups who believe abortion is unethical and that violence is justified against people and establishments providing abortion services. Anti-Government Extremists Anti-government extremists believe the US political system is illegitimate and force is justified to bring about change. This includes militia extremists and sovereign citizen extremists. Black Separatist Extremists Black separatist extremists are individuals or groups that seek to establish an independent nation for people of African descent. Boko Haram Boko Haram is an Islamic extremist organization based in northeastern Nigeria, which pledged allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria in March 2015. Environmental Extremists Environmental extremists view manmade threats to the environment as so severe that violence and property damage are justified to prevent further destruction. 31 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment HAMAS HAMAS, an acronym for Harakat al-Muqāwama al-Islāmiyya, or the “Islamic Resistance Movement,” was founded in 1987 by deceased Sheikh Ahmed Yassin as an offshoot of the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood. Hizballah Hizballah is an Islamic militant group based in Lebanon and allied with Iran. Homegrown Violent Extremists (HVEs) HVEs are individuals inspired by foreign terrorist organizations and radicalized in the countries in which they are born, raised, or reside. Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) ISIS, also referred to as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, the Islamic State, or Daesh, split from al-Qa’ida in 2014 and established its self-proclaimed “caliphate,” claiming authority over all Muslims. Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) LeT is an Islamic extremist organization focused on attacking and expelling Indians from Kashmir, a northern state in India that borders Pakistan and is home to a Muslim-majority population. Militia Extremists Militia extremists view the federal government as an existential threat to the rights and freedoms of Americans. They judge armed resistance to be necessary to preserve these rights. Nusrah Front The Nusrah Front—al Qa’ida’s affiliate in Syria, which is sometimes referred to as Levant Conquest Front or Jabhat Fateh al-Sham—is focused on overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Race-Based Extremists Race-based extremists seek to establish the superiority of one racial or ethnic group over others. This includes white supremacist and black separatist extremists. Single-Issue Extremists Single-issue extremists participate in a form of violent extremism which has its source in domestic political or economic issues. This includes animal rights extremists, environmental extremists, anti-abortion extremists, and anarchist extremists. Sovereign Citizen Extremists Sovereign citizens throughout the United States view federal, state, and local governments as illegitimate. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) TTP is an Islamic extremist organization seeking to overthrow Pakistan’s government and expel US forces from Afghanistan. White Supremacist Extremists White supremacist extremists believe in the inherent superiority of the white race. They seek to establish dominance over nonwhites through violence. 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment NJOHSP New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness