OFFICIAL ITSE ONLY No Further Dissemination W'ithout Permission (U) VFC INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT 19-04 September 3 2019 Title: Criminal Environmental Groups Study and Adopt Militant Insurgent Strategies to Advance Goals in Virginia (U) Scope Note: This product examines how environmental criminal groups1i and their members study and implement militant insrn?gent tactics to advance their cause and what strategies could be effective to counter Tracked by SIN-02, SIN-03, SIN-07. (U) Executive Summary (U) Criminal Enviromnental Groups are using tactics that are regularly associated with insurgent organizations, regardless of their af?liation, to build support systems among citizens in the ommonwealth of Virginia and out of state criminal actors in order to negatively impact the construction of natural gas pipelines crnrently being built or are in the process of continuing construction. (U) Key Judgments Criminal Environmental Groups utilize insurgent tactics and strategies in order to gain support and impact pipeline construction in Virginia by utilizing provocation, intimidation, protraction, and exhaustion tactics. Criminal Environmental Groups will attempt to build local support through methods identi?ed by the ?Accidental Guerrilla Criminal Environmental Groups utilize insurgent tactics and strategies in order to gain support and impact pipeline construction in Virginia by utilizing provocation, intimidation, protraction, and exhaustion tactics. (U) Insurgent Co?opting Tactics and How They are Utilized by Criminal Environmental Groups in Local Issues. Since the establishment of al-Qa?ida in the 19803 dining the Soviet-Afghan War, the organization has considered itself to be the vanguard of the Islamic ommunity.iv After the war, the organization spread throughout the Middle East, A?'ica, The Caucus Mormtain Region, and Southeast Asia by latching onto local militias, organizations, and insurgent groups that had grievances with their respective established political orders. The United States had success in degrading al-Qa?ida?s capabilities after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, however, al-Qa?ida continues to operate by co-opting groups crnrently engaged in con?icts in the Arab Peninsula, West Africa, Syria, and Asia. Al- Qa?ida and other insrn?gent groups, regardless of ideology, utilize forn' identi?able tactics to achieve organizational 1 Envirormiental extremists view marmiade threats to the environment as so severe that violence and property damage are justi?ed to prevent further destruction. Groups such as the Earth Liberation Front (ELF) and Earth First! adopt a ?by any means necessary? approach. although violent tactics such as arson are considered a last resort. ELF considers acts of property destruction as ?non-violent? because no human beings or animals are intentional targets. This document is not designed to criminal environmental groups to al? Qa ?ida and associated movements. This document is to help policv makers, private partners, and law enforcement understand the current situation in order to develop informed decisions bv examining lessons learned in Iraq and Afghanistan and how they apply in a charged political environment in order to decrease the likelihood of escalating the situation and improve communitv relations. This is FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY information protected by Virginia Code Section 52?48, unless otherwise noted. Further dissemination of this information outside of your organization is prohibited unless written approval is obtained from the VFC prior to dissemination. Pursuant to Virginia Code Section anyone violating distribution restrictions may be prosecuted and may be prohibited from receiving future reports. Please contact the Virginia Fusion Center at (804) 674-2196 if you have any questions or need additional information. Page 1 of 10 OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission (U) VFC INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT 19-04 September 3, 2019 goals of delegitimizing governments or foreign powers: provocation, intimidation, protraction, and exhaustion. (U//FOUO) Criminal environmental groups have actively involved themselves in the local anti-pipeline movements throughout the Commonwealth of Virginia. Criminal environmental groups will likely continue to mirror insurgent tactics of provocation, intimidation, protraction, and exhaustion to improve their chances of success, gain support, and promote their political agendas. Understanding this will decrease the likelihood of exhausting valuable public and private resources before they occur. (U) Insurgent Tactics and Criminal Environmental Groups in the Commonwealth of Virginia (U) Provocation (U) Insurgent Groups: Insurgent groups use aggressive acts of violence, rhetoric, and demonstrations of power to provoke a government to respond to their actions.v Usually, these actions will require a forceful response that may further alienate an already isolated group of people. This results in increased instability that insurgent groups exploit to their advantage. For example, in 2004, al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI) detonated an explosive that destroyed the AlAskariya Mosque in Karbala, Iraq, one of the holiest sites in Shia Islam. This provoked the majority Shia country into responding violently to Iraq’s Sunni minority. This was precisely the intent of AQI, which wanted to divide the country by religious doctrines with AQI siding with the Sunni minority. (U//FOUO) Criminal Environmental Groups: Members of criminal environmental groups that appear at antipipeline rallies or pipeline construction sites may attempt to antagonize state and local law enforcement by acting aggressively toward officers, ignoring law enforcement commands, or commit violent acts to provoke law enforcement to utilize force. If an altercation occurs, it is highly likely the altercation will be published by criminal environmental group members to various forms of social media. In 2016, this occurred during at a protest against the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL). Security contractors for the pipeline construction allowed their K9 handlers to utilize their dogs to bite DAPL protestors, which resulted in more support for DAPL opposition actors.vi A similar response in Virginia could lead to growth in the number of criminal environmental actors opposing pipeline related construction, national media attention, and perceived vindication of claims of police harassment, regardless of how the event actually occurred. If this transpires, it may also destroy any cordial relations currently established with local organizations that oppose pipeline construction. (U) Intimidation (U) Insurgent Groups: When attempting to achieve an operational goal, insurgent groups will often intimidate the local population, business owners, and government officials. vii Insurgent groups intimidate civilians and government workers into compliance by use of force or threat of force against those who cooperate with the government or do not submit to the insurgent group’s form of rule. Verbal threats may also be used and are usually sufficient, if there has been historical use of violence associated with those threats. (U//FOUO) Criminal Environmental Groups: Individuals associated with criminal environmental groups have demonstrated their willingness to engage in intimidation tactics. A group targeted a State Water Control Board This is FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY information protected by Virginia Code Section 52-48, unless otherwise noted. Further dissemination of this information outside of your organization is prohibited unless written approval is obtained from the VFC prior to dissemination. Pursuant to Virginia Code Section 52-48(D), anyone violating distribution restrictions may be prosecuted and may be prohibited from receiving future reports. Please contact the Virginia Fusion Center at (804) 674-2196 if you have any questions or need additional information. . Page 2 of 10 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission (U) VFC INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT 19-04 September 3, 2019 member from the Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) during its deliberation of a permit necessary for the approval of the pipeline.viii An anti-Mountain Valley Pipeline banner was hung from the DEQ board member’s home during the time the board member was away for the deliberation. The individual(s) who hung the banner claimed responsibility on a website that is known to promote anti-pipeline and anti-government ideology. They claimed “this banner is an act of solidarity”, “we will resort to sabotage and we will defeat this symbol of domination, exploitation, global capital, and earth pillage”, ending with “fire to the prisons, fire to the pipelines, fire to the fascists.” (U//FOUO) Intimidation of local businesses has also been conducted by individuals associated with criminal environmental groups. A hotel in Augusta County, Virginia housing contracted construction workers for the pipeline, was targeted on social media in 2018. A post on their social media page indicated, “I hope that money lasts you for a lifetime because the people will be there every day making sure you never earn another dollar for the rest of your existence. What a disgusting and horrible agreement you just made.” ix With this type of intimidation, collaborative relationships between law enforcement and businesses, working with contractors or the energy companies may help identify criminal actors before violence or property destruction takes place. Criminal environmental groups and their members will likely continue to threaten private individuals or businesses for their association with pipeline activities, as they believe their actions are justified. x,xi (U) Protraction (U) Insurgent Groups: Insurgent groups, when affected by pressure from governments or military forces, will cease operations, displace, and regroup.xii Such groups then begin operations elsewhere, causing the redistribution of government and military resources to counteract their reappearance. The goal is to protract, or lengthen, the conflict in order to drain resources. The Taliban have used this tactic in Afghanistan after being decimated by the United States and coalition forces; the Taliban have reemerged in Afghanistan after the fighting began almost eighteen years ago and continue to attack coalition forces, thus lengthening the conflict and draining government resources. xiii xiv,xv,xvi (U//FOUO) Criminal Environmental Groups: Criminal environmental groups could utilize this same tactic by setting up camps throughout the Commonwealth along the pipelines’ projected routes. These camps, facing forced removal by law enforcement or their inability to sustain operations, may displace only to reestablish themselves elsewhere. This could lengthen the time necessary for contractors to complete their work, as well as divert local and state law enforcement resources. The tactic was seen in the Dakota Access Pipeline’s violent demonstrations when a camp was established in April 2016 and forcefully disbanded in February 2017.xvii The total economic impact on the federal government was over $1 million.xviii (U//FOUO) The Commonwealth of Virginia currently has one active camp in Montgomery County, the “Yellow Finch Camp”, which has been in operation since September 2018 and opposes the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP).xix This camp currently has the most activity due to the ongoing construction with MVP. The “Three Sisters Camp,” established in early 2018, was blocking the anticipated construction of Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) in Buckingham County. This camp is currently inactive and there is no known current activity, likely because the ACP is currently not in a phase of construction. xx,xxi The ACP is projected to run through West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina.xxii,xxiii This is FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY information protected by Virginia Code Section 52-48, unless otherwise noted. Further dissemination of this information outside of your organization is prohibited unless written approval is obtained from the VFC prior to dissemination. Pursuant to Virginia Code Section 52-48(D), anyone violating distribution restrictions may be prosecuted and may be prohibited from receiving future reports. Please contact the Virginia Fusion Center at (804) 674-2196 if you have any questions or need additional information. . Page 3 of 10 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission (U) VFC INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT 19-04 September 3, 2019 (U) Exhaustion (U) Insurgent Groups: Insurgent groups attempt to exhaust their enemies into compliance, submission, or withdrawal. xxvi Their goal is to impose such cost militarily, economically, and politically, that the government and its forces lose the will to fight. Osama bin Laden stated his goal for exhaustion by causing the United States to become mired in conflict in the Middle East, “[we will cause] America to suffer human, economic, and political losses without achieving for it anything of note…so we are continuing this policy of bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy.” (U//FOUO) Criminal Environmental Groups: It is likely criminal environmental groups will attempt to exhaust law enforcement and private business resources in order to cease or significantly disrupt pipeline construction operations. They will attempt to achieve this by creating camps and spreading extremist propaganda to residents affected by pipeline construction. These organizations will likely be unable to sustain operations and may suffer from exhaustion themselves. Therefore, these groups could be supplemented by outside contributors or by local sympathizers, but may ultimately be unable to effect pipeline construction to the point of exhaustion.xxvii This is FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY information protected by Virginia Code Section 52-48, unless otherwise noted. Further dissemination of this information outside of your organization is prohibited unless written approval is obtained from the VFC prior to dissemination. Pursuant to Virginia Code Section 52-48(D), anyone violating distribution restrictions may be prosecuted and may be prohibited from receiving future reports. Please contact the Virginia Fusion Center at (804) 674-2196 if you have any questions or need additional information. . Page 4 of 10 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission (U) VFC INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT 19-04 September 3, 2019 Criminal Environmental Groups will attempt to build local support through methods identi?ed by the ?Accidental Guerrilla (U) The Accidental Guerrilla and How it Relates to Environmental Extremist Activity (U) The Accidental Guerrilla describes the development cycle where individuals who would not regularly join an insurgent organization, end up supporting and ?ghting alongside one. x? There are four stages to this cycle: infection, contagion, intervention, and rejection. This cycle can also be applied to criminal enviromnental groups to understand how they utilize insurgent tactics to impact and affect local communities. Insurgent group establishes a presence in a remote, ungovemed or conflict-affected area 1 IN ECTIO Outside forces intervene to deal ACCIDENTAL CO NTAG IO with the group threat and disrupt the safe haven Insurgent group uses the safe 4 haven to spread violence and REJ ECTION ideology to other regions INTERVENTION 3 Local population reacts negatively, rejecting outside intervention and allying with the Insurgent group (U) KilcrIlen, David. The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst ofa Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.35. Figure 1.1 (U) Infection: The infection phase occurs when outside insurgent groups move in and exploit or co-opt local groups and their grievances.mm During this phase, insurgent groups establish a small presence and begin to build systems of support. This includes the development of local alliances with groups who may have similar goals or ideologies; the creation of intelligence and propaganda operations; establishing training curriculum, logistic operations, media production, and bases for operations. The infection phase also coincides with the use of intimidation tactics as the insurgent group lacks the ability to get the ?ll] approval of the local populace. Criminal environmental groups are currently operating in the infection phase of the Accidental Guerrilla A small groups of individuals have established camps to impede tree felling operations and have built intelligence gathering operations. Additionally, intimidation tactics have been used in an attempt to stop pipeline construction. This has occurred during DEQ deliberations, on social media posts targeting local businesses, and against pipeline construction security and workers. ?Xi" This is FOR OFFICIAL USE 0N1.) infonnation protected b1 Vn g1n1a Code Section 52? 48, unless other? we noted. Further dissemination at this intormatiou outside at I rails otab end ran: the VFC rior to dissemination. Pmsuant to Virginia Code Section 52- am one violating distribution testrictions ma) be prosecuted a11dama}robe proh1b1tedf10m rece11'1ng?1tute 1eports. Please contact the Virginia Fusion Center at (804) 674? 21 96 1f1' ou hm an1? questions or need additional information. Page 5 of 10 UNCLASSIFIEDHFOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission (U) VFC INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT 19-04 September 3, 2019 (U) Contagion: This is the most important phase within the Accidental Guerilla Syndrome cycle as the insurgent’s ideology spreads nationally or to the broader region and gains traction.xxxv In the past, insurgent groups have only been successful when all factors align, but global communication and social media make it easier to spread ideologies that may increase the susceptibility of the broader population either supporting or becoming sympathetic to the cause. Depending on the population and success of the insurgent group, it may or may not advance past this stage. (U//FOUO) The contagion phase show signs of developing in Virginia. This is evident by the spread of tree sitting, or the act of building tree houses to delay or impede tree felling operations2, throughout Virginia. Tree sitting has already shown to be effective in Roanoke County, Giles County, and at the Yellow Finch Camp in Montgomery County.xxxvi,xxxvii,xxxviii,xxxix If tree sits like these continue to develop, it may become more difficult for pipeline construction to continue and support for it may decrease. The contagion phase would increase in probability if law enforcement is perceived to be overly aggressive towards anti-pipeline actors. Further, if an environmental industrial disaster occurred due to pipeline construction it could bring additional attention. An example of such a disaster would be the 2014 North Carolina incident where coal ash spilled into the Dan River. Such an incident could significantly increase support for anti-pipeline activity as it provides the justification that energy companies, specifically those that use fossil fuels, contribute to the destruction of the environment.xl (U) Intervention: This phase occurs when outside forces, military, government, or coalition of governments, respond to the presence and actions of the insurgent group in a particular area, in an attempt to end the spread of ideology from the contagion phase.xli This intervention could range from multiple governments responding with military force, non-governmental organizations conducting humanitarian aid relief, or local indigenous militias. If an intervention is necessary, a heavy militarized response may reduce support of government and increase the insurgency’s popularity, because the insurgent group will claim to be defenders of the people. The insurgent group is able to do this because the insurgents’ identity is relative to the presence of another, forceful outside organization. If this situation develops, it becomes more difficult to stop the spread of the insurgent ideology. Therefore, it is essential to conduct a more local and less invasive intervention strategy. This is done in order to avoid local backlash and to keep the populace from supporting the insurgent group and eliminating the insurgent’s ability to gain political and military traction. (U//FOUO) Currently, state and local law enforcement in Virginia are active in the intervention phase by providing security for events related to the pipeline, responding to disturbances related to pipeline activity, logging suspicious activity reports for situational awareness, and cooperating with private partners and businesses to ensure public safety. Resource management of public safety agencies in areas affected by criminal environmental groups is important to ensure continuity in responses. Law enforcement officers of local police departments and sheriffs’ offices are often residents of the communities they serve and have connections to the public. With community policing, backlash is less likely to occur. It is not known if the local population will view the State Police as an outside forceful agency, attempting to impose its will on the local populace. 2 Individuals who sits in a tree, usually on a small platform built for the purpose of protecting a tree from being cut down. Supporters usually provide the tree sitters with food and other supplies. This is FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY information protected by Virginia Code Section 52-48, unless otherwise noted. Further dissemination of this information outside of your organization is prohibited unless written approval is obtained from the VFC prior to dissemination. Pursuant to Virginia Code Section 52-48(D), anyone violating distribution restrictions may be prosecuted and may be prohibited from receiving future reports. Please contact the Virginia Fusion Center at (804) 674-2196 if you have any questions or need additional information. . Page 6 of 10 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission (U) VFC INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT 19-04 September 3, 2019 (U) Rejection: If during the intervention phase, the local populace begins to reject governmental or outside intervention and aligns itself with the insurgent group, then the cycle has entered the rejection phase.xlii This occurs when the Accidental Guerrilla Syndrome begins to manifest itself within the population and the local inhabitants begins to take up arms against the intervention force. This could be for many reasons such as, the community does not like outside intervention into its affairs, the intervention forces have dishonored local culture or traditions, the forceful nature of the intervention alienates and persecutes average citizens, the intervening force is perceived to have caused more harm than good, or the customs and traditions of the intervention force are rejected by the society at large. Once this stage is reached, it will be even more difficult to sway the local populace away from the insurgent organization without a drastic change in strategy. (U//FOUO) The complete rejection of law enforcement within the Commonwealth is highly unlikely. However, local populaces affected by pipeline activity and the presence of criminal environmental groups could be swayed by intervention and tactics to the positive or the negative. Favorable relationships that exist among local governments, local law enforcement, and local populations may allow many incidents of civil disturbance to be mitigated without external intervention from non-local law enforcement. If it reaches this level, it is likely that criminal environmental groups have garnered more support, possibly national. This would put more strain on public safety resources and law enforcement. (U) Counter Insurgency Strategies: David Kilcullen’s Analysis of the Kunar Provence Road Project (U) The Kunar Road Project was the construction of a road in rural Afghanistan that helped connect major urban areas to one another. Kilcullen concluded this project, not the road, was the contributor to success of maintaining security on the roadway. It was the construction, community outreach, and process that helped improve security and political progress in the Kunar Province.xliii During construction however, United States and Afghan forces would be attacked by al-Qa’ida and the Taliban, construction equipment would be sabotaged, and threats would be made to the local populace.xliv To counter the insurgents’ activities, the combatant commanders developed a multi-layered plan designed to involve the community as much as possible. For example, each contractor would establish a “social organizer” who was responsible for engaging with tribal and community leader on construction issues and concerns.xlv To further improve relations, contractors working in a specific area could only hire locals from within a six mile radius, which was known as “10 Kilometer rule.” This created a sense of ownership while also increasing the probability that locals would not allow insurgent groups to attack construction efforts, as it directly impacted their lives and economic opportunities.xlvi For example, an improvised explosive device (IED) prematurely exploded when Taliban insurgents were attempting to place it under a culvert on the Kunar Road. Upon the explosion, local citizens came out of their homes to begin reconstruction efforts, to include providing coalition forces with information on who may have been trying to emplace the IED. This trend would continue as locals would voluntarily alert forces to IEDs emplaced throughout the route.xlvii The Kunar Road project was a success in terms of counterinsurgency operations; it separated the insurgents from their source of power, the population. It also resulted in increased economic opportunity along the road, removing support and the temptation to join al-Qa’ida or the Taliban for financial reasons. This is FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY information protected by Virginia Code Section 52-48, unless otherwise noted. Further dissemination of this information outside of your organization is prohibited unless written approval is obtained from the VFC prior to dissemination. Pursuant to Virginia Code Section 52-48(D), anyone violating distribution restrictions may be prosecuted and may be prohibited from receiving future reports. Please contact the Virginia Fusion Center at (804) 674-2196 if you have any questions or need additional information. . Page 7 of 10 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission (U) VFC INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT 19-04 September 3, 2019 (U) Utilizing the Kunar Province Road Model to Preserve Public Safety During in Pipeline Construction (U) Pipeline construction throughout the Commonwealth has been very polarizing. There are those who vehemently oppose it and will take overt criminal measures to delay and disrupt construction. It is unlikely that this will stop the construction of the pipelines, but it may cause a drain on valuable resources both private and public. Therefore, the Kunar Road Model may be an outline for when applying methods to community outreach, law enforcement engagement, and economic interactions. The following are techniques that may help achieve that goal. (U) Implement the “Social Organizer”: Private partners and law enforcement may benefit from the establishment of good working relations with the local non-criminal protest groups, local community groups and leaders, government leadership, and religious organization leaders. These group meetings may be used to inform the local community of actions being taken during pipeline construction. These meetings should also be used to listen to any problems the community has and work together to address grievances. This may help build trust among the community and give them a voice in pipeline construction. (U) Utilize Local Law Enforcement: As noted in the intervention phase, it is important to leverage local law enforcement because local police departments and sheriffs’ offices employ local residents, who have connections to the community. Backlash is less likely to occur, if responding law enforcement organizations are members of the community. However, State Police may be necessary if requirements exceed a local law enforcement agency’s ability to handle an escalated situation. Operational planning will benefit from an understanding of strategies documented herein. (U) Patronize Local Business Establishments: Patronage and use of local businesses by organizations involved in the pipeline construction may improve community relations, increase economic activity, and reduce potential for violent or criminal opposition. An example of this would be contracting local restaurants to provide lunch to pipeline workers each day. Additionally, patronage of a broad spectrum of localized businesses will help spread economic engagement across the community. It also makes it harder for individuals who oppose the pipeline, to threaten local establishments that provide services to pipeline workers, as they would have to threaten multiple businesses. This would further reduce the possibility that a community would support outside criminal entities or those who take a hardline approach to oppose pipeline activity, as it would affect multiple members of the community, families, friends, and employees. (U) Implement the “10 Kilometer Rule”: Private partners conducting pipeline operations may benefit from hiring local workers to assist in construction operations. As with the Kunar Province Road Project, this may provide local residents a sense of pride and connection to the project. These measures may also reduce support for individuals or groups who attempt to delay and disrupt operations, as such steps would negatively affect members of the community, resulting in their inability to work. (U) An implementation of a youth employment campaign for example, may also garner community support as economic opportunities in rural areas are often limited; private partners could implement a program where youth are hired to conduct tasks that do not require experience to perform. Even if such employment is not necessary to achieve the overall project’s goal, the cost of employing the community’s youth may be worth the increase in support from This is FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY information protected by Virginia Code Section 52-48, unless otherwise noted. Further dissemination of this information outside of your organization is prohibited unless written approval is obtained from the VFC prior to dissemination. Pursuant to Virginia Code Section 52-48(D), anyone violating distribution restrictions may be prosecuted and may be prohibited from receiving future reports. Please contact the Virginia Fusion Center at (804) 674-2196 if you have any questions or need additional information. . Page 8 of 10 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission (U) VFC INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT 19-04 September 3, 2019 the community. If such a project was implemented in local Virginia communities, families would not support outside groups, individuals, or local opposition groups that hinder their children’s economic and skill gaining opportunities, much like the Afghan communities that rejected the Taliban and al-Qa’ida in their attempts to delay and disrupt the Kunar Road project because it directly affected their livelihood. (U) Private partners may also benefit by identifying ways to continually employ individuals in local areas once pipeline operations are complete. This could include such employment as security, maintenance of pipeline facilities, lawn care, etc. (U) Avoid Indicators of Abandonment: Individuals and communities in rural areas where pipeline activity is occurring have experienced economic hardship in the past twenty to thirty years and populations have decreased as individuals emigrate in order to find economic prosperity in other areas of the Commonwealth.xlviii Development of a long term economic plan that includes local communities may also reduce opportunities for criminal or violent opposition actors to cultivate local support. This is FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY information protected by Virginia Code Section 52-48, unless otherwise noted. Further dissemination of this information outside of your organization is prohibited unless written approval is obtained from the VFC prior to dissemination. Pursuant to Virginia Code Section 52-48(D), anyone violating distribution restrictions may be prosecuted and may be prohibited from receiving future reports. Please contact the Virginia Fusion Center at (804) 674-2196 if you have any questions or need additional information. . Page 9 of 10 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission (U) VFC INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT 19-04 September 3, 2019 (U) End Notes i (U) New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness, Environmental Extremists, accessed August 1, 2019 ii (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.25,30-38 (U) Killer Bee Syndicate, Swarm: A roving caravan strategy for crushing snakes and other capitalist parasites iv (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 v (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.30 vi (U) AP/CBS, Guards accused of unleashing dogs, pepper-spray oil pipeline protesters, CBS News, September 5, 2016 vii (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.30 viii (U) Its Going Down, Virginia: On eve of ACP decision, banner dropped at board member’s home, December 12, 2017 ix (U) Stoney Creek Resort & Campground, Facebook, Reviews, January 6, 2018. x (U) Bray, M., Antifa: The Anti-Fascist Handbook. New York, Melville House Publishing, 2017 p.86,93,105,113,115,119,141,150,201 xi (U) ItsGoing Down, Pipeline fighter arrested after barricading themselves inside Mountain Valley Pipeline, May 6, 2019 xii (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009, p.31 xiii (U) Al Jazeera, US-Taliban talks for peace in Afghanistan: What we know so far, May 11, 2019 xiv (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.31-32 xv (U) Breitbart, Afghan Taliban’s top peace negotiator: ‘U.S. on the verge of defeat’, May 14, 2019 xvi (U) Lima Charlie, Sjoholm, J., Strike a deal with which devil? The many faces of the Taliban, March 22,2019 xvii (U) The Guardian, Wong, J., Police remove last Standing Rock protesters in military-style takeover, February 23, 2017 xviii (U//FOUO) Critical Infrastructure Protection Unit, Virginia Fusion Center 2018, Pipeline Brief, 2018, slide 9 xix (U) Appalachians Against Pipelines, Facebook, Accessed May 14, 2019 xx (U) Mountain Valley Pipeline, Accessed May 14, 2019 xxi (U) WVNews, Atlantic Coast Pipeline ruling not expected until August, May 12, 2019 xxii (U) Three Sisters Camp, Facebook, Accessed May 14, 2019 xxiii (U) Atlantic Coast Pipeline, Accessed May 14, 2019 xxvi (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.29 xxvii (U) Killer Bee Syndicate, Swarm: A roving caravan strategy for crushing snakes and other capitalist parasites xxx (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.34-38 xxxi (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.35 xxxii (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.35 xxxiv (U) Its Going Down, Virginia: On eve of ACP decision, banner dropped at board member’s home, December 12, 2017 xxxv (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.36 xxxvi (U) The Roanoke Times, Hammack, Laurence. A tree-sit protest of the Mountain Valley Pipeline has spread to Roanoke County, April 2, 2018 xxxvii (U) Roanoke Times, Bent Mountain tree-sitters remain despite trespassing charges, April 19, 2018 xxxviii (U) Earth First!, Monopod blocking Mountain Valley Pipeline sets record as it nears 3 rd week of occupation. April 9, 2018 xxxix (U) WFXR, New pipeline protester joins Yellow Finch tree sitters, April 4, 2019 xl (U) Greensboro News & Record, Wireback, T., Dan River coal ash disaster: Environmental impact could take years to determine, February 1, 2015 xli (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.37 xlii (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.37-38 xliii (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.71 xliv (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.88 xlv (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.89 xlvi (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.92,93 xlvii (U) Kilcullen, D., The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York. Oxford Press, 2009 p.100 xlviii (U) The Roanoke Times, Forman, Carmen. Population loss in Virginia’s Coalfield region projected to continue for decades, June 27, 2016 iii This is FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY information protected by Virginia Code Section 52-48, unless otherwise noted. Further dissemination of this information outside of your organization is prohibited unless written approval is obtained from the VFC prior to dissemination. Pursuant to Virginia Code Section 52-48(D), anyone violating distribution restrictions may be prosecuted and may be prohibited from receiving future reports. Please contact the Virginia Fusion Center at (804) 674-2196 if you have any questions or need additional information. . Page 10 of 10 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY No Further Dissemination Without Permission