GEORGIA STATE REPORT 07.14.2020 SUMMARY • • • • • Georgia is in the red zone for cases, indicating more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population last week, and the red zone for test positivity, indicating a rate above 10%. Disease trends are moving in the wrong direction in Georgia with record numbers of new cases occurring in urban, suburban and rural areas. Test positivity continues to increase. The number of tests has increased, but more testing is needed. The following three counties had the highest number of new cases over the past 3 weeks: 1. Gwinnett County, 2. Fulton County, and 3. DeKalb County. These counties represent 25.9 percent of new cases in Georgia. Georgia had 202 new cases per 100,000 population in the past week, compared to a national average of 119 per 100,000. The federal government has deployed the following staff as assets to support the state response: 122 to support leadership, administrative, operations, and logistics activities from HHS, USCG, VA, and FEMA; and 8 to support medical activities from VA. RECOMMENDATIONS • • • • • • • • • Protect those in nursing homes and long-term care facilities by testing all staff each week and requiring staff to wear cloth face coverings. Continue to vigorously investigate outbreaks and implement testing and intensified contact tracing. Move to community-led testing and work with local community groups to increase testing access. In high transmission settings, consider pooling specimens to test 2-3 persons at once to increase access and reduce turnaround times. For families and cohabiting households, screen entire households in a single test by pooling specimens. Provide clear guidance for households that test positive, including on individual isolation. In all counties with 7-day average test positivity greater than 10%, close bars, require strict social distancing within restaurants, close gyms, and limit gatherings to 10 or fewer people. Allow local jurisdictions to implement more restrictive policies. Mandate statewide wearing of cloth face coverings outside the home. Encourage individuals that have participated in large social gatherings to get tested. Increase messaging of the risk of serious disease in all age groups with preexisting medical conditions, including obesity, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Specific, detailed guidance on community mitigation measures can be found on the CDC website. The purpose of this report is to develop a shared understanding of the current status of the pandemic at the national, regional, state and local levels. We recognize that data at the state level may differ from that available at the federal level. Our objective is to use consistent data sources and methods that allow for comparisons to be made across localities. We appreciate your continued support in identifying data discrepancies and improving data completeness and sharing across systems. We look forward to your feedback. COVID-19 COVID-19 GEORGIA STATE REPORT 07.14.2020 STATE, LAST WEEK STATE, % CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS WEEK FEMA/HHS REGION, LAST WEEK UNITED STATES, LAST WEEK 21,210 (202) +20.6% 135,129 (204) 389,358 (119) DIAGNOSTIC TEST POSITIVITY RATE 14.8% +1.5%* 15.7% 9.6% TOTAL DIAGNOSTIC TESTS (TESTS PER 100,000) 72,355 (688) -3.3% 738,971 (1,113) 3,833,229 (1,172) COVID DEATHS (RATE PER 100,000) 137 (1) +65.1% 1,114 (2) 4,616 (1) MOBILITY NEW CASES (RATE PER 100,000) * Indicates absolute change in percentage points DATA SOURCES Cases and Deaths: State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, the values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data is through 7/10/2020; last week is 7/4 - 7/10, previous week is 6/27 - 7/3. Testing: State-level values calculated by using 7-day rolling averages of reported tests. Regional- and national-level values calculated by using a combination of CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data and HHS Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and commercial labs) through 7/8/2020. Last week is 7/2 - 7/8, previous week is 6/25 - 7/1. Mobility: Descartes Labs. This data depicts the median distance moved across a collection of mobile devices to estimate the level of human mobility within a county; 100% represents the baseline mobility level. Data is anonymized and provided at the county level. Data through 7/11/2020. COVID-19 GEORGIA STATE REPORT 07.14.2020 LOCALITIES IN RED ZONE METRO AREA (CBSA) LAST WEEK MOBILITY COUNTY LAST WEEK 30 Top 12 shown 94 Top 12 shown Atlanta-Sandy SpringsAlpharetta Columbus Savannah Augusta-Richmond County Brunswick Macon-Bibb County Valdosta Dalton Gainesville LaGrange Athens-Clarke County Douglas Gwinnett Fulton DeKalb Cobb Chatham Muscogee Glynn Clayton Bibb Whitfield Lowndes Hall LOCALITIES IN YELLOW ZONE 9 44 Top 12 shown Warner Robins Calhoun Vidalia Chattanooga Hinesville Toccoa Cornelia Thomaston Summerville Forsyth Houston Newton Paulding Coweta Gordon Fayette Walton Toombs Cook Stephens Habersham Red Zone: Those core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) and counties that during the last week reported both new cases above 100 per 100,000 population, and a diagnostic test positivity result above 10%. Yellow Zone: Those core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) and counties that during the last week reported both new cases between 10-100 per 100,000 population, and a diagnostic test positivity result between 5-10%, or one of those two conditions and one condition qualifying as being in the “Red Zone.” Note: Top 12 locations are selected based on the highest number of new cases in the last three weeks. DATA SOURCES Cases and Deaths: State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, the values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data is through 7/10/2020; last week is 7/4 - 7/10, three weeks is 6/20 - 7/10. Testing: HHS Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and commercial labs) through 7/8/2020. Last week is 7/2 - 7/8. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR COUNTIES IN THE RED ZONE Public Messaging • Wear a mask at all times outside the home and maintain physical distance • Limit social gatherings to 10 people or fewer • Do not go to bars, nightclubs, or gyms • Use take out or eat outdoors socially distanced • Protect anyone with serious medical conditions at home by social distancing at home and using high levels of personal hygiene, including handwashing and cleaning surfaces • Reduce your public interactions and activities to 25% of your normal activity Public Officials • Close bars and gyms, and create outdoor dining opportunities with pedestrian areas • Limit social gatherings to 10 people or fewer • Institute routine weekly testing of all workers in assisted living and long-term care facilities. Require masks for all staff and prohibit visitors • Ensure that all business retailers and personal services require masks and can safely social distance • Increase messaging on the risk of serious disease for individuals in all age groups with preexisting obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus, and recommend to shelter in place • Work with local community groups to provide targeted, tailored messaging to communities with high case rates, and increase community level testing • Recruit more contact tracers as community outreach workers to ensure all cases are contacted and all positive households are individually tested within 24 hours • Provide isolation facilities outside of households if COVID-positive individuals can’t quarantine successfully Testing • Move to community-led neighborhood testing and work with local community groups to increase access to testing • Surge testing and contact tracing resources to neighborhoods and zip codes with highest case rates • Diagnostic pooling: laboratories should use pooling of samples to increase testing access and reduce turnaround times to under 12 hours. Consider pools of 2-3 individuals in high incidence settings and 5:1 pools in setting where test positivity is under 10% • Surveillance pooling: For family and cohabitating households, screen entire households in a single test by pooling specimens of all members into single collection device POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR COUNTIES IN THE YELLOW ZONE IN ORDER TO PREEMPT EXPONENTIAL COMMUNITY SPREAD Public Messaging • Wear a mask at all times outside the home and maintain physical distance • Limit social gatherings to 25 people or fewer • Do not go to bars or nightclubs • Use take out, outdoor dining or indoor dining when strict social distancing can be maintained • Protect anyone with serious medical conditions at home by social distancing at home and using high levels of personal hygiene • Reduce your public interactions and activities to 50% of your normal activity Public Officials • Limit gyms to 25% occupancy and close bars until percent positive rates are under 3%; create outdoor dining opportunities with pedestrian areas • Limit social gatherings to 25 people or fewer • Institute routine weekly testing of all workers in assisted living and long-term care facilities. Require masks for all staff and prohibit visitors • Ensure that all business retailers and personal services require masks and can safely social distance • Increase messaging on the risk of serious disease for individuals in all age groups with preexisting obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus, and recommend to shelter in place • Work with local community groups to provide targeted, tailored messaging to communities with high case rates, and increase community level testing • Recruit more contact tracers as community outreach workers to ensure all cases are contacted and all positive households are individually tested within 24 hours • Provide isolation facilities outside of households if COVID-positive individuals can’t quarantine successfully Testing • Move to community-led neighborhood testing and work with local community groups to increase access to testing • Surge testing and contact tracing resources to neighborhoods and zip codes with highest case rates • Diagnostic pooling: laboratories should use pooling of samples to increase testing access and reduce turnaround times to under 12 hours. Consider pools of 3-5 individuals • Surveillance pooling: For family and cohabitating households, screen entire households in a single test by pooling specimens of all members into single collection device COVID-19 GEORGIA TESTING NEW CASES STATE REPORT 07.14.2020 TOP COUNTIES Top counties based on greatest number of new cases in last three weeks (6/20 - 7/10) DATA SOURCES Cases: County-level data from USAFacts. State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, the values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data is through 7/10/2020. Testing: HHS Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and commercial labs) through 7/8/2020. COVID-19 TOTAL DAILY CASES Top 12 counties based on number of new cases in the last 3 weeks DATA SOURCES Cases: County-level data from USAFacts through 7/10/2020. Last 3 weeks is 6/20 - 7/10. COVID-19 GEORGIA STATE REPORT 07.14.2020 CASE RATES AND DIAGNOSTIC TEST POSITIVITY DURING THE LAST WEEK NEW CASES PER 100,000 DURING LAST WEEK TEST POSITIVITY DURING LAST WEEK WEEKLY % CHANGE IN NEW CASES PER 100K WEEKLY CHANGE IN TEST POSITIVITY DATA SOURCES Cases: County-level data from USAFacts through 7/10/2020. Last week is 7/4 - 7/10, previous week is 6/27 - 7/3 Testing: HHS Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and commercial labs) through 7/8/2020. Last week is 7/2 - 7/8, previous week is 6/25 - 7/1. COVID-19 National Picture NEW CASES PER 100,000 LAST WEEK TEST POSITIVITY LAST WEEK DATA SOURCES Cases: County-level data from USAFacts through 7/10/2020. Last week is 7/4 - 7/10 Testing: Combination of CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data and HHS Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and commercial labs) through 7/8/2020. Last week is 7/2 - 7/8. COVID-19 Methods STATE REPORT 07.14.2020 COLOR THRESHOLDS: Results for each indicator should be taken in context of the findings for related indicators (e.g., changes in case incidence and testing volume) Metric Green Yellow Red <10 10-100 >100 <-10% -10% - 10% >10% <5% 5%-10% >10% Change in test positivity <-0.5% -0.5%-0.5% >0.5% Total diagnostic tests resulted per 100,000 population per week >1000 500-1000 <500 Percent change in tests per 100,000 population >10% -10% - 10% <-10% COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population per week <0.5 0.5-2 >2 Percent change in deaths per 100,000 population <-10% -10% - 10% >10% New cases per 100,000 population per week Percent change in new cases per 100,000 population Diagnostic test result positivity rate DATA NOTES • Cases and deaths: County-level data from USAFacts as of 13:00 EST on 07/11/2020. State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data are reviewed on a daily basis against internal and verified external sources and, if needed, adjusted. Last week data are from 7/4 to 7/10; previous week data are from 6/27 to 7/3. • Testing: CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data are used to describe state-level totals when able to be disaggregated from serology test results and to describe county-level totals when information is available on patients’ county of residence or healthcare providers’ practice location. HHS Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and commercial labs) are used otherwise. Some states did not report on certain days, which may affect the total number of tests resulted and positivity rate values. Total diagnostic tests are the number of tests performed, not the number of individuals tested. Diagnostic test positivity rate is the number of positive tests divided by the number of tests performed and resulted. Last week data are from 7/2 to 7/8; previous week data are from 6/25 to 7/1. CELR data is recent as of 00:30 EST on 07/12/2020; HHS Protect data as of 00:30 EST on 07/12/2020. • Mobility: Descartes Labs. These data depict the median distance moved across a collection of mobile devices to estimate the level of human mobility within a locality; 100% represents the baseline mobility level. Data is recent as of 13:00 EST on 07/11/2020 and through 7/11/2020.