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New York Times Aug 2, 2001'

PrOQuest Historical Newspapers: The New York Times (1851-2007) with Index (1851-1993)

pg. A21 .

Sifting and winnowing

Twenty years ago. ExxonMobil believed that oil
prices would continue to rise. allowing us to
make money extracting oil from oil shales in
Colorado. We were very wrong. Similarly. the
U.S. government. confident that petroreum
could be economically produced from coal. cre?
ated the now defunct but hugely expensive
Fuels CorpOration. Oops. More re-
cently. regulators in California thought they
could mandate a revolution in transportation
with all-electric vehicles.
Oops again. 

There are numerous
examples of well-inten-
tioned research programs
for products nobody
wanted. regulatory man-
dates for advances that
proved unattainable. proi-
acts that seriously mis-
judged the costs of production.

Probably the least predictable aspect of
economic life is technology. including energy
technology.

in 1973. right after the first OPEC oil
shock. few would have predicted that US. en-
ergy use per dollar of GDP would deerease 40
percent by the year 2000. But that's what hap-
pened. Some said that energy was Such a ne-
cessity that the ordinary laws of economics
didn't apply.

True. there have been some special in-
centives for conservation. But energy conserva?
tion was mostly achieved by consumers who
wanted to save money and by businesses that
adopted new energy-saving technologies be-
cause they were profitable.

As we have learned. energy efficiency
sometimes mails from innovations in industries
that produce energy and sometimes in energy-
using industries; sometimes it comes from

 

Wise use of energy
comes from invest~
ments in new ideas

and approaches

 

changes in work practices or consumer behav-
ior: sometimes it requires large-scale capital in-
vestments. But ultimately. wise use of energy
comes from investments in new ideas and ap-
proaches.

Today, there are many technical innova-
tions on the herizon that may revolutionize the
production and use of energy fuel cells and
gasoline-electric engines for automobiles. natu-
ral-gas?to-quuid and clean-coal technologies.
next-generation nuclear
reactors. ethanol from
waste. crops. and im-
proved techniques to gen-
erate power using wind
and solar energy. What we
don't know is which of
these technologies, or oth-
ers yet unidentified. will
prove to be the best
choice.

After all. who in 1970 could have foreseen
the impact of innumerable applications of mi-
crocomputers in the energy industry. or the
huge improvements in turbine ef?ciency that
have made natural gas the fuel of choice for
new electricity generation?

That's why it's important that business
and government leaders not pretend that we
know enough to force our energy future to cen-
form to some predetermined vision. Nor should
some sources be subsidized. thereby masking
their true costs and true consumer preferences.

Future improvements can come from oii.
gas. coal. nuclear power. alternative energies
and conservation technologies. Governments
should encourage creativrty. competition and. to
cite words used a century ago by the Regents
of the University of Wisconsin. "that continual
and fearless sifting and winn0wing by which
alone the truth can be found.?

- ExonMobil'"

Please welt our Web 5:19 at wwexxonrrobil corn
1. 

Rift Mob-I Stagnation


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