MISSOURI STATE REPORT 08.30.2020 SUMMARY • • • • • • • • • Missouri is in the red zone for cases, indicating more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population last week, with the 10th highest rate in the country. Missouri is in the yellow zone for test positivity, indicating a rate between 5% and 10%, with the 12th highest rate in the country. Missouri has seen stability in new cases and an increase in test positivity over the last week. The following three counties had the highest number of new cases over the last 3 weeks: 1. St. Louis County, 2. Jackson County, and 3. St. Charles County. These counties represent 40.5% of new cases in Missouri. 62% of all counties in Missouri have ongoing community transmission (yellow or red zone), with 28% having high levels of community transmission (red zone). The high proportion of nursing homes with more than one new positive resident in the last week is concerning. 1.3% of nursing homes are reporting 3 or more residents with new COVID-19 cases per week over the last 3 weeks. Rural and urban counties in Missouri continue to have increases in cases and test positivity. Common sense preventive measures must be implemented to stop further spread. Missouri had 131 new cases per 100,000 population in the last week, compared to a national average of 88 per 100,000. Current staff deployed from the federal government as assets to support the state response are: 75 to support operations activities from FEMA; 7 to support operations activities from ASPR; 5 to support epidemiology activities from CDC; 2 to support operations activities from CDC; and 1 to support operations activities from VA. Between Aug 22 - Aug 28, on average, 92 patients with confirmed COVID-19 and 229 patients with suspected COVID-19 were reported as newly admitted each day to hospitals in Missouri. An average of greater than 95% of hospitals reported either new confirmed or new suspected COVID patients each day during this period.* RECOMMENDATIONS • • • • • • • • • Community transmission continues to be high in rural and urban counties across Missouri, with increasing transmission in the major university towns. Mask mandates across the state must be in place to decrease transmission. Bars must be closed, and indoor dining must be restricted to 50% of normal capacity in yellow zone and 25% of normal capacity in red zone counties and metro areas. Expand outdoor dining options. Community spread must decrease to protect vulnerable populations in nursing homes. University towns need a comprehensive plan that scales immediately for testing all returning students with routine surveillance testing to immediately identify new cases and outbreaks and isolate and quarantine. • Ensure both diagnostic and surveillance testing are rapid and comprehensive at all universities with students on campus. • Expand testing support to Historically Black Colleges and Universities that may have limited testing capacity. • Require all universities with RNA detection platforms to use this equipment to expand surveillance testing for schools (K-12, community colleges) and university students for their students and to support the community surrounding their universities. • University students with or exposed to COVID-19 should have access to quarantine and care sites on or near campus and not be returned home to multigenerational households where additional transmission could occur. • Ensure all universities can fully test, isolate, and contact trace. • Ensure all nursing homes, assisted living, and elderly care sites have full testing capacity in all towns with university students so staff can be aggressively tested weekly to prevent spread from students to residents through staff. Continue ongoing efforts to build and utilize contact tracing. Hire contact tracers and community health workers from within minority and underserved communities to ensure cultural competency to gain trust and buy-in from within the community. In red zones, limit the size of social gatherings to 10 or fewer people; in yellow zones, limit social gatherings to 25 or fewer people. Encourage individuals that have participated in large social gatherings, birthday parties, and family gatherings to get tested and isolate themselves from older family members and those with comorbidities. Nursing homes and public health (including epidemiology) must establish ongoing collaboration for real-time understanding of community transmission to prevent cases and deaths in nursing homes. Expand the protection of those in nursing home, assisted living, and long-term care facilities by ensuring access to rapid facility-wide testing in response to a resident or staff member with COVID-19 and the isolation of all positive staff and residents. Ensure social distancing and universal face mask use. In facilities with workers who tested positive, ensure all residents have been promptly tested and appropriate cohorting measures are in place. Conduct onsite infection prevention reviews at nursing homes with ongoing cases and deaths. Specific, detailed guidance on community mitigation measures can be found on the CDC website. The purpose of this report is to develop a shared understanding of the current status of the pandemic at the national, regional, state and local levels. We recognize that data at the state level may differ from that available at the federal level. Our objective is to use consistent data sources and methods that allow for comparisons to be made across localities. We appreciate your continued support in identifying data discrepancies and improving data completeness and sharing across systems. We look forward to your feedback. * Psychological, rehabilitation, and religious non-medical hospitals were excluded from analyses. In addition, hospitals explicitly identified by states/regions as those from which we should not expect reports were excluded from the percent reporting figure. This value may differ from those in state databases because of differences in hospital lists and reporting processes between federal and state systems. The data presented represents raw data provided; we are working diligently with state liaisons to improve reporting consistency. Continued feedback on improving these data is welcome. COVID-19 COVID-19 MISSOURI STATE REPORT 08.30.2020 STATE, LAST WEEK STATE, % CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS WEEK FEMA/HHS REGION, LAST WEEK UNITED STATES, LAST WEEK NEW COVID-19 CASES (RATE PER 100,000) 8,033 (131) +4.5% 21,585 (153) 288,743 (88) VIRAL (RT-PCR) LAB TEST POSITIVITY RATE 9.3% +1.0%* 9.6% 5.4% 46,456** (757) -19.9%** 177,236** (1,253) 5,305,529** (1,616) 46 (1) -45.9% 157 (1) 6,615 (2) 10.3% (17.9%) -1.2%* (-1.6%*) 6.7% (14.7%) 10.7% (18.6%) 4.0% +0.1%* 3.1% 5.0% TOTAL VIRAL (RT-PCR) LAB TESTS (TESTS PER 100,000) COVID-19 DEATHS (RATE PER 100,000) SNFs WITH ≥1 NEW RESIDENT COVID-19 CASE (≥1 NEW STAFF CASE) MOBILITY SNFs WITH ≥1 NEW RESIDENT COVID-19 DEATH * Indicates absolute change in percentage points. ** Due to delayed reporting, this figure may underestimate total diagnostic tests and week-on-week changes in diagnostic tests. DATA SOURCES – Additional data details available under METHODS Note: Some dates may have incomplete data due to delays in reporting. Data may be backfilled over time, resulting in week-to-week changes. Cases and Deaths: State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, the values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data is through 8/28/2020; last week is 8/22 - 8/28, previous week is 8/15 - 8/21. Testing: CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data through 8/26/2020. Last week is 8/20 - 8/26, previous week is 8/13 8/19. Public Health Laboratory data is inclusive of all updates processed through 8/28. Mobility: Descartes Labs. This data depicts the median distance moved across a collection of mobile devices to estimate the level of human mobility within a county. The 100% represents the baseline mobility level prior to the pandemic; lower percent mobility indicates less population movement. Data is anonymized and provided at the county level. Data through 8/27/2020. SNFs: Skilled nursing facilities. National Healthcare Safety Network. Data are reported separately for cases among residents and staff. Last week is 8/10-8/16, previous week is 8/17-8/23. COVID-19 MISSOURI STATE REPORT 08.30.2020 COVID-19 COUNTY AND METRO ALERTS* Top 12 shown in table (full lists below) LOCALITIES IN RED ZONE METRO AREA (CBSA) LAST WEEK COUNTY LAST WEEK 9 32 Springfield Columbia Branson Cape Girardeau Hannibal Maryville Sikeston Marshall Fort Madison-Keokuk Greene Jefferson Boone Franklin Taney Marion Nodaway Scott Newton Lincoln Camden Washington LOCALITIES IN YELLOW ZONE 15 St. Louis Kansas City Joplin Jefferson City Farmington Sedalia St. Joseph Fort Leonard Wood Kennett Poplar Bluff Rolla Warrensburg 39 St. Louis Jackson St. Charles St. Louis City St. Francois Jasper Cole Clay Cass Cape Girardeau Pettis Christian All Yellow CBSAs: St. Louis, Kansas City, Joplin, Jefferson City, Farmington, Sedalia, St. Joseph, Fort Leonard Wood, Kennett, Poplar Bluff, Rolla, Warrensburg, West Plains, Mexico, Moberly All Red Counties: Greene, Jefferson, Boone, Franklin, Taney, Marion, Nodaway, Scott, Newton, Lincoln, Camden, Washington, Perry, New Madrid, Miller, Saline, Crawford, Mississippi, Madison, Pemiscot, Ralls, Stoddard, Howard, Gasconade, Bollinger, Ste. Genevieve, Monroe, Andrew, Hickory, Oregon, Sullivan, Barton All Yellow Counties: St. Louis, Jackson, St. Charles, St. Louis City, St. Francois, Jasper, Cole, Clay, Cass, Cape Girardeau, Pettis, Christian, Pulaski, Dunklin, Buchanan, Callaway, Stone, Lawrence, Warren, Platte, Phelps, Cooper, Johnson, Butler, Howell, Webster, Polk, Benton, Audrain, Lafayette, Clinton, Dallas, Texas, Randolph, Morgan, Henry, Wright, Iron, DeKalb * Localities with fewer than 10 cases last week have been excluded from these alerts. Red Zone: Those core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) and counties that during the last week reported both new cases above 100 per 100,000 population, and lab test positivity result above 10%. Yellow Zone: Those CBSAs and counties that during the last week reported both new cases between 10-100 per 100,000 population, and a lab test positivity result between 5-10%, or one of those two conditions and one condition qualifying as being in the “Red Zone.” Note: Lists of red and yellow localities are sorted by the number of new cases in the last 3 weeks, from highest to lowest. Some dates may have incomplete data due to delays in reporting. Data may be backfilled over time, resulting in week-to-week changes. DATA SOURCES – Additional data details available under METHODS Cases and Deaths: State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, the values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data is through 8/28/2020; last week is 8/22 - 8/28, three weeks is 8/8 - 8/28. Testing: HHS Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and commercial labs) through 8/26/2020. Last week is 8/20 - 8/26. Public Health Laboratory data is inclusive of all updates processed through 8/28. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR COUNTIES IN THE RED ZONE Public Messaging • Wear a mask at all times outside the home and maintain physical distance • Limit social gatherings to 10 people or fewer • Do not go to bars, nightclubs, or gyms • Use take out or eat outdoors socially distanced • Protect anyone with serious medical conditions at home by social distancing at home and using high levels of personal hygiene, including handwashing and cleaning surfaces • Reduce your public interactions and activities to 25% of your normal activity Public Officials • Close bars and gyms, and create outdoor dining opportunities with pedestrian areas • Limit social gatherings to 10 people or fewer • Institute routine weekly testing of all workers in assisted living and long-term care facilities. Require masks for all staff and prohibit visitors • Ensure that all business retailers and personal services require masks and can safely social distance • Increase messaging on the risk of serious disease for individuals in all age groups with preexisting obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus, and recommend to shelter in place • Work with local community groups to provide targeted, tailored messaging to communities with high case rates, and increase community level testing • Recruit more contact tracers as community outreach workers to ensure all cases are contacted and all positive households are individually tested within 24 hours • Provide isolation facilities outside of households if COVID-positive individuals can’t quarantine successfully Testing • Move to community-led neighborhood testing and work with local community groups to increase access to testing • Surge testing and contact tracing resources to neighborhoods and zip codes with highest case rates • Diagnostic pooling: Laboratories should use pooling of samples to increase testing access and reduce turnaround times to under 12 hours. Consider pools of 2-3 individuals in high incidence settings and 5:1 pools in setting where test positivity is under 10% • Surveillance pooling: For family and cohabitating households, screen entire households in a single test by pooling specimens of all members into single collection device POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR COUNTIES IN THE YELLOW ZONE IN ORDER TO PREEMPT EXPONENTIAL COMMUNITY SPREAD Public Messaging • Wear a mask at all times outside the home and maintain physical distance • Limit social gatherings to 25 people or fewer • Do not go to bars or nightclubs • Use take out, outdoor dining or indoor dining when strict social distancing can be maintained • Protect anyone with serious medical conditions at home by social distancing at home and using high levels of personal hygiene • Reduce your public interactions and activities to 50% of your normal activity Public Officials • Limit gyms to 25% occupancy and close bars until percent positive rates are under 3%; create outdoor dining opportunities with pedestrian areas • Limit social gatherings to 25 people or fewer • Institute routine weekly testing of all workers in assisted living and long-term care facilities. Require masks for all staff and prohibit visitors • Ensure that all business retailers and personal services require masks and can safely social distance • Increase messaging on the risk of serious disease for individuals in all age groups with preexisting obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus, and recommend to shelter in place • Work with local community groups to provide targeted, tailored messaging to communities with high case rates, and increase community level testing • Recruit more contact tracers as community outreach workers to ensure all cases are contacted and all positive households are individually tested within 24 hours • Provide isolation facilities outside of households if COVID-positive individuals can’t quarantine successfully Testing • Move to community-led neighborhood testing and work with local community groups to increase access to testing • Surge testing and contact tracing resources to neighborhoods and zip codes with highest case rates • Diagnostic pooling: Laboratories should use pooling of samples to increase testing access and reduce turnaround times to under 12 hours. Consider pools of 3-5 individuals • Surveillance pooling: For family and cohabitating households, screen entire households in a single test by pooling specimens of all members into single collection device COVID-19 MISSOURI TESTING NEW CASES STATE REPORT 08.30.2020 TOP COUNTIES Top counties based on greatest number of new cases in last three weeks (8/8 - 8/28) DATA SOURCES – Additional data details available under METHODS Note: Some dates may have incomplete data due to delays in reporting. Data may be backfilled over time, resulting in week-to-week changes. Cases: State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, the values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data is through 8/28/2020. Testing: HHS Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and commercial labs) through 8/26/2020. Public Health Laboratory data is inclusive of all updates processed through 8/28. COVID-19 TOTAL DAILY CASES Top 12 counties based on number of new cases in the last 3 weeks DATA SOURCES – Additional data details available under METHODS Cases: State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, the values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data is through 8/28/2020. Last 3 weeks is 8/8 - 8/28. COVID-19 MISSOURI STATE REPORT 08.30.2020 CASE RATES AND DIAGNOSTIC VIRAL LAB TEST POSITIVITY DURING THE LAST WEEK NEW CASES PER 100,000 DURING LAST WEEK VIRAL (RT-PCR) LABORATORY TEST POSITIVITY DURING THE LAST WEEK WEEKLY % CHANGE IN NEW CASES PER 100K WEEKLY CHANGE IN VIRAL (RT-PCR) LABORATORY TEST POSITIVITY DATA SOURCES – Additional data details available under METHODS Note: Some dates may have incomplete data due to delays in reporting. Data may be backfilled over time, resulting in week-to-week changes. Cases: State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, the values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data is through 8/28/2020. Previous week is 8/15 - 8/21. Testing: HHS Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and commercial labs) through 8/26/2020. Last week is 8/20 - 8/26, previous week is 8/13 - 8/19. Public Health Laboratory data is inclusive of all updates processed through 8/28. COVID-19 National Picture NEW CASES PER 100,000 LAST WEEK VIRAL (RT-PCR) LAB TEST POSITIVITY LAST WEEK DATA SOURCES Note: Some dates may have incomplete data due to delays in reporting. Data may be backfilled over time, resulting in week-to-week changes. Cases: County-level data from USAFacts through 8/28/2020. Last week is 8/22 - 8/28. Testing: Combination of CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data and HHS Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and commercial labs) through 8/26/2020. Last week is 8/20 - 8/26. COVID-19 METHODS STATE REPORT 08.30.2020 COLOR THRESHOLDS: Results for each indicator should be taken in context of the findings for related indicators (e.g., changes in case incidence and testing volume) Metric Green Yellow Red <10 10-100 >100 <-10% -10% - 10% >10% <5% 5%-10% >10% Change in test positivity <-0.5% -0.5%-0.5% >0.5% Total diagnostic tests resulted per 100,000 population per week >1000 500-1000 <500 Percent change in tests per 100,000 population >10% -10% - 10% <-10% COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population per week <1 1-2 >2 Percent change in deaths per 100,000 population <-10% -10% - 10% >10% 0% 0.1%-5% >5% <-0.5% -0.5%-0.5% >0.5% New cases per 100,000 population per week Percent change in new cases per 100,000 population Diagnostic test result positivity rate Skilled Nursing Facilities with at least one resident COVID-19 case, death Change in SNFs with at least one resident COVID-19 case, death DATA NOTES • Some dates may have incomplete data due to delays in reporting. Data may be backfilled over time, resulting in week-to-week changes. It is critical that states provide as up-to-date data as possible. • Cases and deaths: County-level data from USAFacts as of 12:30 EDT on 08/30/2020. State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data are reviewed on a daily basis against internal and verified external sources and, if needed, adjusted. Last week data are from 8/22 to 8/28; previous week data are from 8/15 to 8/21. • Testing: The data presented represent viral COVID-19 laboratory diagnostic and screening test (reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, RT-PCR) results—not individual people—and exclude antibody and antigen tests. CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data are used to describe county-level viral COVID-19 laboratory test (RT-PCR) result totals when information is available on patients’ county of residence or healthcare providers’ practice location. HHS Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and commercial labs) are used otherwise. Some states did not report on certain days, which may affect the total number of tests resulted and positivity rate values. Because the data are deidentified, total viral (RT-PCR) laboratory tests are the number of tests performed, not the number of individuals tested. Viral (RT-PCR) laboratory test positivity rate is the number of positive tests divided by the number of tests performed and resulted. Resulted tests are assigned to a timeframe based on this hierarchy of test-related dates: 1. test date; 2. result date; 3. specimen received date; 4. specimen collection date. Resulted tests are assigned to a county based on a hierarchy of testrelated locations: 1. patient residency; 2. provider facility location; 3. ordering facility location; 4. performing organization location. States may calculate test positivity other using other methods. Last week data are from 8/20 to 8/26; previous week data are from 8/13 to 8/19. HHS Protect data is recent as of 12:00 EDT on 08/30/2020. Testing data are inclusive of everything received and processed by the CELR system as of 19:00 EDT on 08/29/2020. • Mobility: Descartes Labs. These data depict the median distance moved across a collection of mobile devices to estimate the level of human mobility within a locality. The 100% represents the baseline mobility level prior to the pandemic; lower percent mobility indicates less population movement. Data is anonymized and provided at the locality level. Data is recent as of 13:00 EDT on 08/30/2020 and is through 8/27/2020. • Hospitalizations: Unified hospitalization dataset in HHS Protect. This figure may differ from state data due to differences in hospital lists and reporting between federal and state systems. These data exclude psychiatric, rehabilitation, and religious non-medical hospitals. In addition, hospitals explicitly identified by states/regions as those from which we should not expect reports were excluded from the percent reporting figure. The data presented represents raw data provided; we are working diligently with state liaisons to improve reporting consistency. Data is recent as of 15:00 EDT on 08/30/2020. • Skilled Nursing Facilities: National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). Data report resident and staff cases independently. Quality checks are performed on data submitted to the NHSN. Data that fail these quality checks or appear inconsistent with surveillance protocols may be excluded from analyses. Data presented in this report are more recent than data publicly posted by CMS. Last week is 8/10-8/16, previous week is 8/17-8/23.