Portland Voter Views of a Police Accountability Measure Key Findings from a Survey of Voters Conducted August 25-30, 2020 3 OPINION RESEARCH RESEARCH 220-5964 Methodology • 435 interviews with Portland voters likely to participate in the November 2020 election • Conducted August 25-30, 2020 online and via landline and cell phones • Margin of sampling error of +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence level • Due to rounding, some percentages do not add up to 100% 2 Election Context Three in five Portland voters now believe the city is on the wrong track. Would you say things in Portland are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that they are pretty seriously on the wrong track? Right Direction August 2020 July 2020 May 2020 Q1. 26% Don't Know 15% 33% 59% 16% 45% Wrong Track 50% 13% 42% 4 Nearly two-thirds have an unfavorable view of the Mayor. I would like to ask your impressions of some people and organizations in public life. As I read each name, please tell me whether your impression of that person or organization is generally favorable or unfavorable. Very Fav. Smwt. Fav. Heard of/Can't Rate Never Heard of/Don't Know The Black Lives Matter movement 53% Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty The Portland Police Bureau *The Portland Police Association *The Portland police union 24% 16% 13% 23% 22% 19% Mayor Ted Wheeler 6% Q2. *Split Sample Smwt. Unfav. 18% 20% 19% 17% 10% 9% 7% 15% 14% 11% 9% 26% 15% Very Unfav. 13% 17% 21% 20% 30% 35% 39% 42% Total Total Fav. Unfav. 76% 22% 46% 29% 45% 50% 31% 48% 31% 56% 26% 63% 5 Homelessness and the economy are top issues; police use of force is also a concern for most. Ext. Ser. Prob. Very Ser. Prob. Smwt. Ser. Prob. Homelessness The economic impacts of the coronavirus outbreak The cost of healthcare Police use of force against people of color Racial discrimination and prejudice The cost of housing The health impacts of the coronavirus outbreak Police use of force against Black people Police use of force against people with mental health challenges Police use of force against protestors Not Too Ser. a Prob. 69% Don't Know 24% 60% 27% 45% 32% 44% 31% 38% 33% 45% 76% 72% 16% 11% 72% 5% 71% 12% 70% 13% 6% 67% 16% 39% 28% 15% 41% 24% 19% 14% 5% 5% 87% 13% 13% 20% 26% 21% 10% 14% 28% 41% 37% 5% Ext./Very Ser. Prob. 93% 12% 23% 65% 59% Q6. I'd like to read you some problems that people have mentioned for Portland. Please tell me whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, somewhat serious problem, or not too serious a problem in Portland. Split Sample 6 Views of Portland Police and Racial Justice One-quarter have a close friend or family member who works in law enforcement. Do you have a close friend or family member who works in law enforcement? Yes, close friend 8% Yes, family member Yes, both 12% 4% No, neither Prefer not to answer Q22. Total Yes 24% 72% 4% 8 About one in five have participated in a protest in the last three months. Have you participated in a protest (HALF SAMPLE: against police violence) in the last three months? Protest Against Police Violence Protest 23% Yes No Don't know 21% 68% 9% Q8 Split A & Split B. 72% 8% Those who have protested are disproportionately progressives, men under 50, independent men, live East of 205, and – interestingly – have a family connection to someone in law enforcement. 9 Majorities support the protests – and nearly all do when “non-violence” is stipulated. In general, do you support or oppose (HALF SAMPLE: these protests) (HALF SAMPLE: nonviolent protests)? These Protests Strongly support 49% Somewhat support Somewhat oppose 18% 9% Strongly oppose Don’t know 1% Q9 Split C & Split D. 22% Total Oppose 31% Non-Violent Protests Total Support 67% 82% 10% 1% 7% Total Support 92% Total Oppose 8% 0% 10 Voters overall are split on whether the police have a positive relationship with residents – with sharp differences by ideology. Do you believe the relationship between the Portland Police Bureau and Portland residents generally is a positive or a negative one? Very positive 10% Somewhat positive 22% Mixed 27% Total Negative 22% 37% Somewhat negative 16% Very negative Don't know Q7. Total Positive 32% 3% Total Positive Progressive Liberal Moderate Conservative White Voters All Voters of Color Total Negative 63% 23% 42% 46% 23% 7% 69% 16% 30% 40% 20% 52% <$75,000 $75,000-$100,000 $100,000+ 25% 47% 29% 37% 41% 31% North Inner East Outer East West 34% 42% 28% 36% 30% 44% 38% 24% 11 Three in five believe police use of force has been inappropriate – this is especially true for younger voters and progressives. In general, do you think Portland police officers’ use of force such as using tear gas, batons, and violence during the protests has been appropriate or inappropriate? Very appropriate Somewhat appropriate Somewhat inappropriate 21% 14% 16% Very inappropriate Don't know Q10. 5% Total Appropriate 35% Total Appropriate 18-49 50-64 65+ Progressive Liberal Moderate Conservative White Voters Total Inappropriate All Voters of Color 43% 59% North Inner East Outer East West Total Inappropriate 68% 42% 55% 59% 36% 26% 11% 22% 50% 88% 30% 30% 88% 69% 46% 7% 65% 70% 35% 64% 35% 59% 25% 69% 53% 41% 12 Most Portland voters believe there is a systemic problem in policing. I am going to read you a pair of statements about this issue. Please tell me which statement comes closer to your personal opinion: There is an underlying, systemic problem in Portland’s police system that leads to repeated police violence and mistreatment of Black Portlanders and people with mental illness OR Police violence against Black Portlanders and people with mental illness is the result of actions by a handful of bad cops, and there is no systemic racial bias in Portland’s system of policing Both/Neither/Don't know Q11. 56% 31% 13% Answers to this question diverge sharply by ideology: 91% of progressives see a systemic problem, and 81% of conservatives say it is a handful of bad cops. 13 Given the choice, broad majorities prefer an independent board to investigate a wide array of potential complaints or incidents. I am going to ask you about several different kinds of potential complaints or incidents involving police and Portland residents. I’d like you to tell me which you would prefer to investigate it: the Police Bureau, or an independent board of Portland residents. Independent Board Deaths in police custody Complaints of discrimination against protected classes Violations of constitutional rights Police Bureau Don't Know 77% 19% 74% 70% 19% 23% 7% 8% Uses of deadly force 65% 22% 13% Complaints about use of force that results in injury 64% 23% 13% Complaints against police employees 62% 27% 11% Q12. 14 Views of the Measure Given measure language alone, more than seven in ten voters back reform – and two in five would “definitely” vote yes. Amends Charter: Authorizes new, independent community police oversight board. Shall Charter be amended to authorize new, independent community police oversight board to investigate complaints against Portland Police, impose discipline? Definitely yes 42% Probably yes 26% Undecided, lean yes Undecided, lean no Probably no 5% 1% 5% Definitely no Undecided Q3. Would you vote yes or no? 15% Total Yes 73% Total No 22% 5% 16 Nine in ten progressives and liberals support the measure, as do two-thirds of moderates. Support for the Measure by Ideology & Party Def. Yes Prob. Yes Und., Lean Yes Progressive Democrats 26% 17% Q3. Would you vote yes or no? 10% 7% 8% 11% 30% 33% 13% 8% 24% 10% 21% 60% 51% Independents Def. No 31% 32% 7% 6% 7% Prob. No 35% 60% Moderate Republicans Und., Lean No 52% Liberal Conservative Undecided 5% 7% 6% 10% 57% 20% 6% Total Yes Total No 96% 1% 92% 6% 66% 31% 15% 78% 87% 10% 62% 31% 23% 69% 17 Support is broad across lines of gender and age, though slightly muted among voters 65+. Support for the Measure by Gender & Age Def. Yes Prob. Yes Und., Lean Yes Men Women Undecided 48% Und., Lean No 20% 39% 30% Prob. No 8% 7% 18-49 43% 28% 8% 50-64 44% 24% 6% 65+ 37% Q3. Would you vote yes or no? 21% 6% 8% 7% Total Yes Total No 15% 76% 23% 15% 72% 21% 78% 17% 72% 23% 59% 35% Def. No 5% 12% 17% 23% 18 Voters with lower household incomes are slightly more supportive; white voters and voters of color are equally supportive. Support for the Measure by Household Income & Race/Ethnicity Def. Yes Prob. Yes Und., Lean Yes <$75000 $75,000-$100,000 $100,000+ White Voters All Voters of Color Q3. Would you vote yes or no? Undecided Und., Lean No 51% 45% 36% 45% 39% 24% 23% 29% 32% Total Yes Total No 5% 7% 8% 79% 16% 18% 71% 22% 17% 72% 26% 7% 8% 28% Def. No Prob. No 6% 6% 12% 79% 17% 9% 11% 8% 80% 18% 19 Voters in Outer East Portland are most supportive, with half saying they would “definitely” vote “yes.” Support for the Measure by Region Def. Yes Prob. Yes Und., Lean Yes Undecided Und., Lean No North 43% 23% Inner East 44% 24% Outer East West 50% 26% Q3. Would you vote yes or no? Prob. No 7% 31% 22% 8% 11% Total Yes Total No 21% 74% 22% 20% 72% 24% 84% 13% 57% 33% Def. No 7% 15% 17% 20 Nearly everyone who has protested says they would vote “yes” on the measure, as would two-thirds of those who haven’t. Support for the Measure by Relationship with Police & Protested Def. Yes Prob. Yes Police Have Positive Relationship Mixed Relationship Und., Lean Yes 21% 22% 37% Negative Relationship Q3. Would you vote yes or no? Und., Lean No 7% 28% 65% Have Protested Have Not Protested Undecided 13% Def. No 31% 5% 11% 16% 26% 56% 36% Prob. No 26% Total Yes Total No 50% 46% 70% 20% 95% 3% 29% 12% 97% 2% 6% 7% 20% 64% 29% 21 Voters strongly support key elements of the measure. I am going to read you some specific provisions included in the measure. Please tell me whether you support or oppose that provision. Strng. Supp. The Board will be staffed by a Director and experienced staff, including professional investigators Board membership will include representation from diverse communities, including those who have experienced systemic racism and historic over-policing The Board will have the power to subpoena documents, access police records, and compel witness statements, including from police officers Creates an independent Board of local residents to oversee Portland police Q4. Smwt. Supp. Don't Know 55% 63% 61% 52% Smwt. Opp. Strng. Opp. 24% 7% 10% 15% 16% 22% Total Total Supp. Opp. 79% 14% 5% 14% 78% 19% 5% 14% 77% 19% 16% 74% 22% 6% 22 There is slightly less enthusiasm for the funding and appointment provisions. Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. Don't Know Authorizes an independent body to impose discipline on officers, including firing 51% Current and former employees of law enforcement agencies and their immediate family members may not serve on the Board Board funding will be no less than 5% of the Police Bureau’s annual budget Board members would be appointed by approval of City Council 19% Strng. Opp. 17% 24% 35% 6% 12% 23% 9% 13% 5% Total Total Supp. Opp. 68% 25% 18% 64% 30% 16% 55% 22% 54% 36% 17% 7% 7% 18% 47% 31% Smwt. Opp. 24% Q4. I am going to read you some specific provisions included in the measure. Please tell me whether you support or oppose that provision. 23 After learning about measure elements, there is no overall change in support for the measure. After Elements Initial Vote Definitely yes 42% Probably yes Undecided, lean yes 26% 5% Undecided, lean no 1% Probably no 5% Definitely no Undecided 15% 5% Q3 & Q5. Would you vote yes or no? Total No 22% Total Yes 73% 44% 19% 7% 3% 4% 15% Total Yes 70% Total No 23% 8% 24 Messaging Support for the measure remains consistently at or above two-thirds as voters learn more. Initial Vote After Elements Total Yes 73% 70% 67% Total No 22% 23% 26% Undecided 5% 8% 7% Q3, Q5, Q14 Split C, Q14 Split D & Q16 Total. Would you vote yes or no? After After Negatives Positives Only Only After All Messages 72% 70% 22% 25% 6% 4% 26 Segmenting the Electorate by Intensity of Support v Consistent Definitely Yes: Voters who consistently indicated they would definitely vote yes on the measure. v Ever No: Voters who indicated they at any time that they would vote no on the measure. v Swing: Voters who do not fall into any of the other categories – remaining consistently undecided or switching positions. Consistent Definitely Yes 32% Ever No 29% Swing 39% The following slide shows demographic groups that disproportionately fall into one category or the other. 27 Demographic Profile of the Segments Consistent Definitely Yes 32% of the Electorate Liberal Democrats Democrats Ages 18-49 Democratic Men Progressive Progressive Democrats Swing 39% of the Electorate High School Educated Ages 18-29 Progressive/Liberal Independents Democratic Women Progressive Progressive Democrats Some College Education All Voters of Color Dads Ages 75+ Democrats Post-Graduate Educated Liberals Portland Region Outer East Women with No Children Moderate/Conservative Ages 30-39 Democrats Ages 40-49 Non-College Educated Women Four-year College Graduates Mode of Interview Phone Democratic Women Democrats Ages 18-49 Have Children at Home Women Ages 18-49 Ever No 29% of the Electorate Republicans Ages 18-49 Republican Men Conservatives Republicans Conservative Republicans Republicans Ages 50+ Moderate/Conservative Independents Republican Women Progressive/Liberal/Moderate Republicans Portland Region West Independent Women Independents Ages 18-49 Independents Ages 65-74 Moderates 28 Messaging in Support of a Measure (Ranked in Order of Effectiveness) *(TIME) Leaders in Portland’s Black community have been asking for this change for more than 30 years. The time is now: we need to hold police accountable to the people they serve. (STATS) An Oregonian review of 40 fatal Portland police shootings found those killed were disproportionately Black, and that half suffered from mental illness. None of the 65 officers who pulled a trigger were indicted by a grand jury, and none were ultimately disciplined. It’s time for oversight and accountability. *(STATUS QUO) The status quo is simply unacceptable. Portland Police investigate themselves – it’s no surprise that they never find wrongdoing. It’s time for the people who protect and serve to be accountable to the people, with citizen oversight and consequences for bad actors. (PUBLIC) This measure would require annual, public reporting of police complaints and how they are handled to a professional committee. By bringing these incidents to light, we can see trends and propose effective reforms. Q13. Here are some statements from people who support the measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote “yes” on the measure. *Split Sample 29 Messaging in Support of a Measure; Continued (Ranked in Order of Effectiveness) *(IPR) Currently, police investigations are handled by the Independent Police Review. IPR investigators are not allowed to talk directly to police officers under investigation. Until the federal government intervened, IPR threw out almost 60% of the complaints they received. They continue to refuse complaints of racial bias, or from people experiencing homelessness. This measure will give us a better system. (BAD APPLES) For too long, bad cops have gotten away with misconduct and tarnished the reputation of police officers doing their jobs. By identifying misconduct and holding those responsible accountable, it will prevent good cops from being hurt by their colleagues’ actions. (HOMELESSNESS) People experiencing homelessness represent a small fraction of Portlanders, yet one in every two arrests made by the Portland Police Bureau are of homeless people. The vast majority of the arrests, 86%, are for non-violent crimes. Arresting so many homeless people only adds to the city's homeless crisis, because it’s harder for people with criminal histories to find housing. This measure would help to change that. *(MODEL) These reforms would make Portland the national model for other cities looking to keep their police accountable to their communities. Q13. Here are some statements from people who support the measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote “yes” on the measure. *Split Sample 30 Among a set of highly persuasive messages, those focused on the long-standing demand for change and status quo stats are compelling. Very Convincing *Time 58% Stats 46% *IPR 44% Bad Apples *Model 25% 30% 26% 41% 35% 26% 77% 22% 51% Public 80% 22% 55% *Status Quo Homelessness Somewhat Convincing 32% 22% 31% 77% 76% 70% 72% 57% 57% Q13. Here are some statements from people who support the measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote “yes” on the measure. *Split Sample 31 Moderates are most persuaded by knowing that Black communities have demanded this change for 30 years. (Very Convincing) Target Statement Ideology All Consistent Ever Voters Progressive Liberal Moderate Conservative Definitely Swing No Yes *Time 58% 90% 72% 8% 81% 76% 55% 10% Stats 55% 86% 66% 6% 81% 74% 40% 5% *Status Quo 51% 85% 56% 6% 85% 53% 35% 4% Public 46% 74% 51% 7% 71% 62% 32% 7% *IPR 44% 69% 56% 4% 65% 60% 27% 8% Bad Apples 41% 55% 44% 20% 41% 51% 40% 32% Homelessness 35% 57% 40% 5% 65% 37% 18% 2% *Model 26% 48% 26% 0% 38% 42% 13% 2% Q13. Here are some statements from people who support the measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote “yes” on the measure. *Split Sample 32 The relative ranking of messages in support is similar across age groups. (Very Convincing) Age Statement All Voters *Time Region 18-49 50-64 65+ North Inner East Outer East West 58% 57% 65% 54% 59% 50% 75% 43% Stats 55% 61% 51% 41% 57% 52% 70% 34% *Status Quo 51% 61% 40% 33% 59% 45% 67% 23% Public 46% 47% 50% 37% 57% 36% 57% 30% *IPR 44% 46% 56% 25% 48% 39% 67% 17% Bad Apples 41% 38% 49% 39% 49% 35% 44% 35% Homelessness 35% 38% 37% 24% 40% 28% 47% 21% *Model 26% 34% 16% 11% 35% 25% 28% 15% Q13. Here are some statements from people who support the measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote “yes” on the measure. *Split Sample 33 Messaging Opposing the Measure (Ranked in Order of Effectiveness) (RUSHED) This measure is well-intentioned, but it was drafted hastily – in just a few weeks – with no time for public comment or review. We need to take the time to make sure police accountability reforms are effective – not just act because it’s the cause of the moment. (PROTESTORS) We should not meet the demands of the violent protestors who have taken to the streets for months now to cause disorder, looting and rioting. These are the same people who pulled a man from his truck and beat him unconscious. (AUDITOR) The City Auditor has said we already have robust systems to hold police accountable. We simply need to fund those properly – not create new bureaucracy and paperwork. (ILLEGAL) What this measure proposes is illegal – even if it passes, it will be tied up in courts for years, costing the City millions in legal fees with no change to police policies. Q15. Here are some statements from people who oppose the measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote “no” on the measure. 34 Opposition messages are less-persuasive overall, though asserting the measure was rushed is somewhat convincing. Very Convincing Rushed 27% Protestors Auditor Illegal Somewhat Convincing 24% 19% 16% 28% 10% 16% 19% 55% 34% 35% 35% Q15. Here are some statements from people who oppose the measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote “no” on the measure. 35 Negative messages resonate most with conservatives; a message critiquing protestors has some purchase with moderates. (Very Convincing) Target Statement Ideology All Voters Consistent Ever Progressive Liberal Moderate Conservative Definitely Swing No Yes Rushed 27% 18% 14% 56% 15% 27% 25% 53% Protestors 24% 6% 13% 61% 5% 13% 33% 70% Auditor 19% 1% 7% 55% 4% 7% 17% 67% Illegal 16% 10% 3% 40% 5% 10% 15% 45% Q15. Here are some statements from people who oppose the measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote “no” on the measure. 36 Negative messaging resonates more in West Portland, where voters are more skeptical of the measure to begin with. (Very Convincing) Statement All Voters Age Region 18-49 50-64 65+ North Inner East Outer East West Rushed 27% 26% 23% 36% 29% 27% 18% 41% Protestors 24% 21% 29% 30% 25% 24% 11% 45% Auditor 19% 17% 18% 27% 18% 20% 10% 32% Illegal 16% 15% 14% 21% 9% 23% 9% 25% Q15. Here are some statements from people who oppose the measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote “no” on the measure. 37 Messengers Voters find Black spokespeople believable on this measure, along with veterans and people with experience of police abuse. Here is a list of organizations that may take a position on the ballot measure we have been discussing. Please indicate whether you would trust each person or organization’s opinion about this measure or if you would be suspicious. Total Total Very Bel. Smwt. Bel. Never Heard of Don't Know/No Opin. Not Too Bel. Not at All Bel. Bel. Not Bel. The Oregon NAACP 43% 28% 10% 10% 7% 70% 18% Young Black protest leaders who grew up in Portland The Black Lives Matter movement A Portlander who has been abused by police 29% 39% 34% 31% 26% 39% 7% 10% 8% 7% 68% 10% 9% 8% 18% Veterans 20% 38% 24% Willamette Week newspaper 22% 35% 11% 14% The Oregonian newspaper Q17. Split Sample 13% 35% 16% 21% 16% 15% 65% 26% 64% 27% 58% 15% 15% 57% 28% 14% 48% 36% 9% 12% 39 They are largely unfamiliar with local faith groups and Rose City Justice. Very Bel. Smwt. Bel. Never Heard of Portland police officers Don't Know/No Opin. Not Too Bel. Not at All Bel. 28% 25% 27% 14% Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty 21% The Portland Police Association 11% The Albina Ministerial Alliance 14% 19% 20% Pastor Mark Knutson 5% 8% 36% 39% 10% 6% 18% 24% 6% 16% Rose City Justice 7% 16% Pastor LeRoy Haynes 7% 34% 31% 61% 9% 29% 13% 6% 9% 23% 15% 15% 7% 7% 7% 9% 14% 18% 37% 23% 61% 55% 40% 16% 21% 17% 22% Total Total Bel. Not Bel. 41% 52% Q17. Here is a list of organizations that may take a position on the ballot measure we have been discussing. Please indicate whether you would trust each person or organization’s opinion about this measure or if you would be suspicious. Split Sample 40 Swing voters’ most-trusted spokespeople are the same as those trusted by voters overall. (Total Believable) Statement The Oregon NAACP Young Black protest leaders who grew up in Portland The Black Lives Matter movement A Portlander who has been abused by police Veterans Willamette Week newspaper The Oregonian newspaper Portland police officers Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty The Portland Police Association The Albina Ministerial Alliance Rose City Justice Pastor LeRoy Haynes Pastor Mark Knutson All Consistent Voters Definitely Yes 70% 95% 68% 97% 65% 91% 64% 91% 58% 57% 57% 86% 48% 57% 41% 14% 40% 72% 31% 6% 29% 41% 23% 22% 15% 10% 9% 11% Target Swing Ever No 78% 71% 80% 69% 59% 64% 55% 38% 37% 18% 32% 38% 16% 10% 35% 34% 10% 30% 58% 18% 28% 75% 8% 72% 11% 2% 19% 6% Q17. Here is a list of organizations that may take a position on the ballot measure we have been discussing. Please indicate whether you would trust each person or organization’s opinion about this measure or if you would be suspicious. Split Sample 41 Along with other Black leaders, progressives especially trust Commissioner Hardesty. (Total Believable) Statement The Oregon NAACP Young Black protest leaders who grew up in Portland The Black Lives Matter movement A Portlander who has been abused by police Veterans Willamette Week newspaper The Oregonian newspaper Portland police officers Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty The Portland Police Association The Albina Ministerial Alliance Rose City Justice Pastor LeRoy Haynes Pastor Mark Knutson Ideology All Voters Progressive Liberal Moderate Conservative 70% 89% 83% 84% 23% 68% 94% 79% 58% 39% 65% 92% 87% 44% 9% 64% 84% 81% 63% 13% 58% 57% 48% 41% 40% 31% 29% 23% 15% 9% 70% 74% 49% 20% 65% 8% 38% 39% 16% 7% 60% 73% 73% 35% 47% 20% 38% 28% 9% 9% 56% 67% 58% 64% 25% 48% 32% 19% 9% 12% 67% 26% 16% 95% 11% 82% 16% 6% 34% 12% Q17. Here is a list of organizations that may take a position on the ballot measure we have been discussing. Please indicate whether you would trust each person or organization’s opinion about this measure or if you would be suspicious. Split Sample 42 Younger voters assign more trust to the BLM movement. (Total Believable) Statement The Oregon NAACP Young Black protest leaders who grew up in Portland The Black Lives Matter movement A Portlander who has been abused by police Veterans Willamette Week newspaper The Oregonian newspaper Portland police officers Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty The Portland Police Association The Albina Ministerial Alliance Rose City Justice Pastor LeRoy Haynes Pastor Mark Knutson All Voters 70% 68% 65% 64% 58% 57% 48% 41% 40% 31% 29% 23% 15% 9% 18-49 68% 68% 71% 65% 53% 49% 51% 32% 43% 28% 27% 29% 9% 8% Age 50-64 79% 71% 57% 77% 77% 80% 41% 46% 48% 27% 37% 17% 18% 19% 65+ 67% 67% 54% 50% 52% 60% 48% 64% 23% 44% 30% 12% 29% 3% Q17. Here is a list of organizations that may take a position on the ballot measure we have been discussing. Please indicate whether you would trust each person or organization’s opinion about this measure or if you would be suspicious. Split Sample 43 Residents of Outer East Portland are especially likely to trust Black leaders on these issues. (Total Believable) Region All Statement Voters North Inner Outer West East East The Oregon NAACP 70% 59% 66% 82% 66% Young Black protest leaders who grew up in Portland 68% 79% 67% 80% 47% The Black Lives Matter movement 65% 78% 62% 76% 35% A Portlander who has been abused by police 64% 60% 53% 77% 61% Veterans 58% 54% 53% 63% 58% Willamette Week newspaper 57% 54% 57% 74% 38% The Oregonian newspaper 48% 52% 46% 59% 27% Portland police officers 41% 51% 39% 31% 51% Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty 40% 44% 43% 48% 19% The Portland Police Association 31% 47% 28% 19% 40% The Albina Ministerial Alliance 29% 43% 25% 34% 15% Rose City Justice 23% 36% 21% 23% 16% Pastor LeRoy Haynes 15% 17% 17% 19% 6% Pastor Mark Knutson 9% 18% 10% 7% 5% Q17. Here is a list of organizations that may take a position on the ballot measure we have been discussing. Please indicate whether you would trust each person or organization’s opinion about this measure or if you would be suspicious. Split Sample 44 Conclusions 45 Conclusions ü The Portland Police Bureau accountability measure is well-positioned to pass in November 2020. § It begins with broad majority support, which remains consistent throughout an exchange of pro and con messaging. § This support is substantial across demographic groups -- with the exception of more-skeptical conservatives and West Portland voters. § Voters broadly support each policy component of the measure. § They believe a variety of incidents and complaints should be investigated by an independent board – not the Police Bureau. ü The most compelling messages lay out statistics about police bias and point out that Black leaders have been demanding this change for 30 year. ü The latter may be an effective counter to the opponents’ only relatively persuasive critique, that the measure has been rushed. ü Black leaders, veterans, people with direct experience of police violence, and local newspapers are trusted messengers. 46 Dave@FM3research.com Miranda@FM3research.com 1999 Harrison St., Suite 2020 Oakland, CA 94612 Phone (510) 451-9521 Fax (510) 451-0384