DATE FILED: May 4, 2020 4:16 PM FILING ID: 9496BF76F4C96 CASE NUMBER: 2014CW3043 EXHIBIT A-3 TO RIO BLANCO WCD EXPERT DISCLOSURES May 1, 2020 1. Introduction The Rio Blanco Water Conservancy District (RBWCD) has filed an application for surface water right and storage water right in Colorado Division 6 water court Case No. 14CW3043. The application includes the proposed use of those rights for maintenance and recovery of federally listed threatened and endangered species. This report discusses the proposed Wolf Creek Reservoir, provides an analysis of the hydrology, physical habitat, biological conditions, and flow recommendations for the White River in Colorado and Utah. I have prepared this report for the Rio Blanco Water Conservancy District to summarize my analyses and opinions on the need for water storage in Wolf Creek Reservoir and subsequent release to benefit the endangered fish species in the White River in Colorado and Utah. 1.1. LIST OF DOCUMENTS AND INFORMATION RELIED UPON The information in this report is based on the following data sources: 1. White River Storage Feasibility Study, Phase 1 Report. W.W. Wheeler & Associates, Inc. Englewood, CO 80110, prepared for the Rio Blanco Water Conservancy District, May 2014. 2. White River Storage Feasibility Study, Final Report. W.W. Wheeler & Associates, Inc., Englewood, CO. Prepared for the Rio Blanco Water Conservancy District. March 4, 2015. 3. Application for Surface and Storage Water Right, Case No. 14CW3043. 4. Engineers’ Reply in Support of Motion to Intervene; Concerning the Application for Water Rights of: The Rio Blanco Water Conservancy District, Case No. 14CW3043. November 27, 2019. 5. Letter from Andrew Nicewicz Colorado Assistant Attorney General to Alan E. Curtis, White and Jankowski, LLC. November 22, 2019. Regarding Case No. 14CW3043. 6. Draft Review of Fish Studies with Interim Flow Recommendations for Endangered Fishes of the White River, Colorado and Utah. D.M. Anderson, T.W. Econopouly, J. Mohrman, T. Jones, M.J. Breen and T. Chart. November 5. 2019. W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 2 May 1, 2020 7. White River Base Flow Study for Endangered Fishes, Colorado and Utah, 1995-1996. Final Report. Project 65. Prepared for Upper Colorado River Basin Recovery Implementation Program, G.B. Haines, D. Irving, and T. Modde, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Vernal Utah, February 2004. 8. Flow Recommendations for the White River, Utah-Colorado, Draft Report. Prepared for Upper Colorado River Basin Recovery Implementation Program. Geomorphic analysis in support of a channel maintenance flow recommendation for the White River near Watson, Utah. J.D. Schmidt and K.L. Orchard, Department of Earth Sciences, Utah State University. And. Base Flow Recommendations for Endangered Fishes in the White River, Colorado and Utah, 1995-1996. D. Irving, B. Haines, and T. Modde. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Vernal Utah. August 2002. 9. The White River and Endangered Fish Recovery: A Hydrological, Physical and Biological Synopsis. Publication Number 00-37, Utah Division of Wildlife Resources, Salt Lake City, Utah. Final Report Sept. 1998, Updated and Edited Sept. 2000. L.D. Lentsch, B.G. Hoskins and L.M. Lubonudrow (1998). M.E. Anderson and A. Paschal, (2000). 10. Completion Report, Yampa-White Physical Habitat Study, C.G. Prewitt, B.A. Caldwell, W. Miller; in Colorado River Fishery Project, Final Report Yampa River, W.H. Miller, D. Archer, H.M. Tyus and R.M. McNatt, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Salt Lake City, Utah, April, 1982. 11. Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program. General information pages. https://www.coloradoriverrecovery.org 12. Stream Flow Needs of Rare and Endangered Fishes, Yampa River, Colorado. H.M. Tyus and C.A. Karp. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Vernal Utah. April 1, 1988. 13. Flow Recommendations for Endangered Fishes in the Yampa River. T. Modde and G. Smith, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. November 1995. 14. Management Plan for Endangered Fishes in the Yampa River Basin, Environmental Assessment. G. Roehm, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Denver, Colorado September, 2004. 15. Minimum Flow Recommendation for Passage of Colorado Squawfish and Razorback Sucker in the 2.3-Mile Reach of the Lower Gunnison River: Redlands Diversion Dam to the Colorado River Confluence, B.D. Burdick U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Grand Junction, Colorado. January 1997. W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 3 May 1, 2020 16. Movement, Migration and Habitat Preference of Radio-telemetered Colorado Squawfish; Green, White and Yampa Rivers, Colorado and Utah. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Colorado River Fishery Project, Salt Lake City, Utah, January 20, 1983. 17. Riverine Fish Flow Investigations, Federal Aid Project F-289-R6, R. Anderson and G. Stewart, Colorado Division of Wildlife, Fort Collins, Colorado, June 2003. 18. Determination of habitat availability, habitat use, and flow needs of endangered fishes in the Yampa River between August and October. T. Modde, W.J. Miller, and R. Anderson. Recovery Implementation Program Project #CAP-9, April, 1999. 19. Chapter 4: Habitat Use, W. Miller and T. Modde, in Determination of habitat availability, habitat use, and flow needs of endangered fishes in the Yampa River between August and October. T. Modde, W.J. Miller, and R. Anderson. Recovery Implementation Program Project #CAP-9, April, 1999. 20. An Evaluation of the Role of Tributary Streams for Recovery of Endangered Fishes in the Upper Colorado River Basin, with Recommendations for Future Recovery Actions. Project Number 101, Upper Colorado Endangered Fish Recovery Program, H.M. Tyus and J.F. Saunders, Center for Limnology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado. March 29, 2001. 21. Home-Range Fidelity and Use of Historic Habitat by Adult Colorado Pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus Lucius) in the White River, Colorado and Utah. D. Irving and T. Modde. Western North American Naturalist 60(1): 16-25, 2000. 22. Colorado Squawfish Habitat Use and Movement during Summer Low Flow in the Yampa River Upstream of Cross Mountain Canyon. Prepared for Colorado River Water Conservation District, Glenwood Springs, Colorado. W.J. Miller and D.E. Rees, Miller Ecological Consultants, Inc. Fort Collins, Colorado. December 17, 1997. 23. Colorado Squawfish Winter Habitat Study, Yampa River, Colorado, 1986-1988. E.J. Wick and J.A. Hawkins, Larval Fish Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado. February, 1989. 24. Fishes and Macroinvertebrates of the White and Yampa Rivers, Colorado. Final Report on a Baseline Survey Conducted for the Bureau of Land Management. C.A. Carlson, C.G. Prewitt, D.E. Snyder, E.J. Wick, E.L. Ames, and W.D. Fronk. Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado. February, 1979. 25. Distribution of Fishes in the White River, Utah. S.H. Lanigan and C.R. Berry, Jr. The Southwestern Naturalist 26(4):389-393, November 20, 1981. W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 4 May 1, 2020 26. Colorado Pikeminnow Habitat Use in the San Juan River, New Mexico and Utah. W.J. Miller and J.A. Ptacek, Miller Ecological Consultants, Fort Collins, Colorado, January 31, 2000. 27. Flow Recommendations to Benefit Endangered Fishes in the Colorado and Gunnison Rivers, C. W. McAda. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Grand Junction, Colorado, 2003. 28. Streamflow Needs of Rare and Endangered Fishes: Yampa River Interim Flow Recommendations, Final Report. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Region 6, Denver, Colorado. March 5, 1990. 29. Procedures for Releasing and Administering Water from Elkhead Reservoir to Augment Yampa River Flows for Endangered Fish. J. Mohrman and D. Anderson. Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program. October 3, 2017. 30. Final Programmatic Biological Opinion for Bureau of Reclamation’s Operations and Depletions, Other Depletions, and Funding and Implementation of Recovery Program Actions in the Upper Colorado River above the Confluence with the Gunnison River. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Lakewood, Colorado. December 1999. 31. Exhibit A – Scope of Work, White River Management Plan. December 19, 2019. 32. Sources of Water for Endangered Fishes in the Colorado River. News Release,U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Denver, Colorado. January 10, 2014. 33. Memorandum from Robert Muth to Erin Light providing the Rationale for Management of Water Releases from the Elkhead Reservoir Endangered Fish Pool to Augment August -October Base Flows in the Yampa River, Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program, April 3, 2008. 34. Final Programmatic Biological Opinion on the Management Plan for Endangered Fishes in the Yampa River Basin. Regional Director, Region 6, Fish and Wildlife Service, Denver Colorado. January 10, 2005. 35. Dedication of Elkhead Dam & Reservoir Enlargement in Northwest Colorado. News Release, Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program. Denver, Colorado. July 2, 2007. 36. Microsoft Excel spreadsheet created by W.J. Miller to calculate stream flow volume for each interim instream flow recommendation and wetted perimeter for riffles. W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 5 May 1, 2020 37. Evaluation of Instream Flow Methods and Determination of Water Quantity Needs for Stream in the State of Colorado, R.B Nehring, Colorado Division of Wildlife, September 1979. 38. Expert Report for Case No. 14CW3043, Water Division 6, May 2020. W.W. Wheeler and Associates, Inc. 1.2. Background on Instream Flow needs and Flow Recommendations for the federally listed Colorado Pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) and Razorback Sucker (Xyrauchen texanus) in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program (UCRRIP) was established in 1988 with the dual objectives of recovery of the endangered fishes and allow water development to proceed in accordance with federal and state laws (Figure 1). The UCRRIP Partners include the State of Colorado and Colorado Water Congress. The UCRRIP has set the objective of recovery of the endangered fishes not just to maintain the status quo. The objective will be met when the fishes are first downlisted to “threatened” and then delisted with removal from Endangered Species Act protection (Figure 2). One element of the UCRRIP is identification and protection of instream flows to restore river and floodplain habitat to benefit endangered fishes (Figure 3). Studies to identify appropriate instream flow needs in the Upper Basin have occurred in the mainstem Colorado, Green, Gunnison, Yampa and White Rivers at various times since the early 1980s. The studies included hydrologic data, geomorphology data, measurement of physical habitat in these rivers, computer simulations of the relationship between habitat and various levels of flow (Prewitt et al. 1982; Haines et al. 2004; Modde et al. 1999; Tyus and Karp 1988; Modde and Smith 1995; Schmidt and Orchard 2002, Burdick 1997). The results of these studies have been used to set appropriate instream flow regimes to benefit endangered fishes in the Upper Colorado River Basin. These flow recommendations have been an integral part of the Programmatic Biological W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 6 May 1, 2020 Opinions in the 15 Mile Reach (Colorado River upstream of the Gunnison River) and Yampa River (McAda 1999, Roehm 2004). 1.3. Sources of water secured to benefit endangered fishes in the Colorado and Yampa Rivers. Reservoirs in the Colorado River and Yampa River currently provide a portion of the flow volume specified in the flow recommendations for those rivers. Source of the water comes from multiple reservoir locations and multiple entities. The flow recommendations for those two rivers vary by season. The recommended flow regime specifies timing and volume to benefit spawning, rearing and winter habitats. The Coordinated Reservoir Operations in the Colorado River basin were established in 1995 and can provide additional water during peak runoff to benefit spawning endangered fishes. In years with high snowpack and potential extra water in the basin, the reservoir operators coordinate releases in spring to increase the peak flow in the 15 Mile Reach and benefit the endangered fishes. This coordinated release of water can provide a higher peak flow than the previous non-coordinated release during high snowpack years. Additional water (10825 acre-feet) for summer and fall releases to benefit endangered fishes was secured in agreements with water users and the Recovery Program in 2014. The 10825 water is released from Granby Reservoir and Ruedi Reservoir. Water to benefit endangered fishes in the Yampa River is leased by the Recovery Program from Elkhead Reservoir. The water was secured as part of the dam rehabilitation and enlargement of the reservoir completed in 2007 (US Fish and Wildlife 2007). The release procedures are laid out in a series of UCRRIP documents, which include Muth (2008) and Mohrman and Anderson (2017). The releases are generally made to maintain late summer and early fall stream flows at or above the recommended flows for that time of year. W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 7 May 1, 2020 Figure 1. Excerpt from UCRRIP website showing the date of establishment and purpose of the program. https://www.coloradoriverrecovery.org/general-information/about.html Figure 2. Excerpt for UCRRIP website showing the Recovery goal. https://www.coloradoriverrecovery.org/general-information/about.html W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 8 May 1, 2020 Figure 3. Excerpt from UCRRIP website listing the program element if instream flow identification and protection. https://www.coloradoriverrecovery.org/generalinformation/recovery-program-elements.html 2. Background on Endangered Fish and Flow Recommendations in the White River. 2.1. Hydrology The White River is a major tributary in the Green River basin. The flow regime still maintains a snowmelt hydrograph with peak flow occurring in late May and early June. These peak flows are most pronounced in wet and average years, however, there is a small peak flow in drier years (Figure 4). Until the construction of Taylor Draw Dam and Kenney Reservoir in the 1980s, the White River contained only direct flow diversion structures and no large impoundments. Taylor Draw Dam is a run of the river facility and still passes spring peak flows through the spillway. Anderson et al. (2019) conclude the following about the current flow regime: The current hydrologic regime of the White River includes the annual occurrence of relatively robust spring peak flows (Figure 7, and Appendix A) which, together with the W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 9 May 1, 2020 current magnitude and timing of base flows, have been adequate to provide and maintain habitat characteristics that sustain Colorado pikeminnow and razorback sucker populations. The flows referenced above include within and between year variation that has supported the aquatic community in the river. Current peak flows in wet hydrologic conditions exceed 3500 cfs and reach 1000 cfs in dry hydrologic conditions. Median peak flows exceed 2000 cfs at the Watson, Utah USGS gage (#9306500) (Anderson et al. 2019, Figure 4). The White River flow regime and resulting habitats are adequate to support the substantial populations of endangered and native fish species as discussed below. Spring peak flows provide the hydraulic forces required to create and maintain habitat as well as transport sediment from the upper river downstream through the lower river. These peak flows also provide spawning cues for species such as Colorado Pikeminnow. High spring flows and the shoulder flows preceding those flows inundate backwaters and embayments that are used by the endangered fish prior to spawning. Colorado Pikeminnow use the areas as staging locations prior to spawning. These areas are generally warmer than the mainstem river and also concentrate Colorado Pikeminnow prey, both of which are needed for reproductive maturation of the fish. W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 10 May 1, 2020 Figure 4. Hydrographs presented in Anderson et al. 2019. Distribution of flows (mean daily discharge) as measured by the USGS at the White River near Watson, Utah gage (#09306500) for the period 1923-2016 (missing 1980-1985). The traces illustrate 90% exceedance, 50% exceedance, and 10% exceedance values for each individual date over the period of record. Base flows are also variable by hydrologic year type. Summer base flows in wet years are greater than 500 cfs while flows in dry years can be as low as 100 cfs (Figure 4). White River summer base flows are noted to have decreased somewhat with the upstream consumptive uses for irrigation and municipalities. Irrigation return flows can be delayed as it either comes as overland flow from surface irrigation or as groundwater return. 2.2. Fish Studies to determine occurrence of fish species and habitat conditions in the White River in Colorado and Utah have been conducted for several decades. These studies have documented W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 11 May 1, 2020 the presence of endangered species, in particular Colorado Pikeminnow, since the 1970s (Carlson et al. 1979, Lanigan and Berry 1981, Miller et. al. 1983, Irving and Modde 1994, Lentsch et al. 2000). The White River has some of the highest catch rates of Colorado Pikeminnow in the Upper Colorado River Basin, which demonstrates importance of the White River to the recovery effort for that species. In addition to the endangered species these studies also document the other components of the biotic community including native and non-native fish species and macro-invertebrates. The studies document the presence of all trophic levels from primary producers to top level consumers. Native species, in addition to Colorado Pikeminnow, present include Roundtail Chub, Speckled Dace, Flannelmouth Sucker and Bluehead Sucker. These species are consumers of the primary and secondary producers, algae and macroinvertebrates, respectively. All of these fish species are potential prey items for Colorado Pikeminnow. Razorback sucker were undetected in the White River until more recent intensive monitoring including installation of Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag antenna arrays (Anderson et al. (2019). Razorback Sucker from larval to adult age classes have been collected in the White River since 2002 indicating the presence of suitable habitat for all life stages of that species. Razorback Sucker feed on algae and invertebrates similar to the Flannelmouth Sucker and Bluehead Sucker. Maintaining primary and secondary production is important to recovery of this species. 2.3. Movement and Migration Several researchers have studied the movement and migration of Colorado Pikeminnow captured in the White River. Miller et al. (1983) documented migration of adult Colorado Pikeminnow from the White River downstream to the Green River and migration from the Green River into the White River. Colorado Pikeminnow tagged in the White River were documented to move as much as 250 miles, which included a migration from the White River W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 12 May 1, 2020 downstream into the Green River and return. This same study documented the movement of Colorado Pikeminnow tagged in the Green River to an upstream location in the White River and return to the Green River. These movements occurred during the usual spawning period for Colorado Pikeminnow. The movement of the individual fish from the Green River into the White River may be an indication of potential spawning habitat in the White River. The usual period for spawning migrations is from June into early August. Irving and Modde (2000) report migrations of as much as 400 miles for Colorado Pikeminnow tagged in the White River. These migrations were from the White River into either the Green or Yampa Rivers and then back to the White River. The movement out of the White River usually occurs in June and early July. The fish return to the White River by August. This study also reported localized movements in the White River. Late summer movements were more localized, which would imply a home range area. This same type of localized movement was reported by Miller et al. (1983). Similar localized movement was reported for Colorado Pikeminnow in the Yampa River during August to October (Miller and Rees 1997, Miller and Modde 1999). Movements of these fish appeared to be associated with feeding in riffle habitats and movement between habitats after dark. A study in the San Juan River reported similar movement as previous studies in the Yampa and White rivers. Miller and Ptacek (2000) reported longer movement by Colorado Pikeminnow during the spawning period and shorter localized movement post-spawn in late summer. Movement by Colorado Pikeminnow during winter is not extensively studied. Irving and Modde (2000) report only small differences in fish locations from late fall until early spring in the White River. Miller and Ptacek (2000) report on small movements for Colorado Pikeminnow during a one-week observation period during February in the San Juan River. Wick and Hawkins (1989) studied Colorado Pikeminnow habitat use and movement in the Yampa River for two winters. They report Colorado Pikeminnow staying within the wintering area and movements of no W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 13 May 1, 2020 more than 0.3 miles. Most Colorado Pikeminnow stayed within a specific habitat complex with some local undirected movements. 2.4. Habitat Availability and Habitat Use Studies to characterize aquatic habitat conditions have occurred since the 1980s similar to those for fish studies. These studies have included habitat characterization by habitat type (e.g. pools, riffles, runs, backwaters, etc.) as well as studies to determine change in habitat with stream flow. The latter include studies of geomorphology (Schmidt and Orchard 2002) and studies of change in channel physical parameters of wetted width, depth and velocity (Haines et al. 2004). A complex suite of habitat types is required to support a fully functioning aquatic ecosystem. This includes habitat heterogeneity with a mix of riffles, runs, pools, low velocity habitats and a mix of streambed substrate types. These type of habitat characteristics are currently present in the White River. The amount of each habitat type varies by season and level of stream flow. Backwaters, embayments and floodplain habitat is more abundant during shoulder and high flows as these features are inundated with rising water. Pools, runs and riffles are dominant during the base flows. All of these habitats are used by Colorado Pikeminnow and other fish at various times of the year. Adequate flow and water depths are needed to allow production of food and to allow the passage and localized movement inherent in Colorado Pikeminnow behavior. Riffle habitat is important for primary productivity which provides the food base for higher trophic levels. Production in the riffles is highest when the greatest wetted area is maintained. Riffle wetted area was one of the key elements examined in the habitat study by Haines et al. (2004). Haines et al. (2004) determined the number of riffles with sufficient depth for passage as a function of discharge and also the amount of wetted area present as a function of discharge. A value of 30 cm was used a sufficient for unrestricted passage by Colorado W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 14 May 1, 2020 Pikeminnow. This was the same value as used in previous determinations of minimum flow for passage in the Gunnison River (Burdick 1997) and Yampa River (Modde et al. 1999). Anderson et al. (2019) summarized the results of Haines et al. (2004) in the following table. Table 1. Number of riffle cross sections with thalweg depth greater than 30 cm (Source: Anderson et al. 2019) and percent of total passable In parentheses. Flow in cfs 100 150 200 250 300 transects with riffle 35 43 45 46 47 thalweg depth > 30 (71) (88) (92) (94) (96) Number of 49 cm. Passage at riffles is important during the summer and fall base flow period for Colorado Pikeminnow. Habitat use studies have shown that Colorado Pikeminnow can move up to a few miles each day from a resting habitat to a foraging habitat (Miller and Rees 1997). The largest change in the percent of riffles passable occurs as flows increase from 100 cfs to 150 cfs. The wetted perimeter coverage also shows a similar response based on the graphs presented by Haines et al. (2004). The greatest loss of wetted perimeter coverage occurs as flow drop below the range of 200 to 150 cfs and lower. Maintaining wetted perimeter through the summer growth period for fish is important to provide adequate food supply to support the fish over winter. Greater wetted perimeter provides more area for macroinvertebrate production upon which small bodied fishes and Razorback Sucker feed. A robust community of small bodied and other fishes is needed to support Colorado Pikeminnow, which primarily forage on fish as they grow from juveniles to adults. A flow regime that restricts wetted perimeter below a somewhat typical baseflow can be detrimental to productivity and survival. Lower than normal base flows have also been shown to be advantageous to non-native species in the Green River basin (Anderson et al. 2019). W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 15 May 1, 2020 2.5. White River Flow Recommendations Studies completed from the 1980s through the early 2000s were conducted to determine the relationship between stream flow and habitat in the White River. Most recently, there is an ongoing effort to synthesize the available data and make updated flow recommendations for the White River (Anderson et al. 2019). The current effort combines biological data, physical habitat data and hydrologic data to recommend a suite of flows to maintain and benefit the endangered fishes in the White River. Haines et al. (2004) applied the physical habitat model RHABSIM to habitats in the White River downstream from Taylor Draw Dam in 1995 and 1996. This model was state of the science at the time. Newer more robust 2-dimensional hydraulic/habitat models are now the state of the science, however, this does not diminish the usefulness of the Haines et al. work. RHABSIM provides hydraulic data at each cross section for water width, wetted perimeter, water depth and water velocity. The State of Colorado uses several of these parameters (wetted perimeter, depth and velocity) to set minimum instream flows. The threshold values were first determined by Nehring (1979) and are still applied. The thresholds for these parameters vary by stream width (Table 2) and have been applied in many streams and rivers in Colorado. The method used by the State is R2Cross and based on data from riffle cross sections. April through October minimum flows are set when all three thresholds are met or exceeded. While specific data for an R2Cross analysis was not generated from the RHABSIM model, there are data that can be used as surrogates to calculate an approximate minimum flow similar to the R2Cross model. Haines et al. (2004) and Anderson et al. (2019) provide data on wetted perimeter, thalweg water depth, and velocity. W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 16 May 1, 2020 Table 2. Key flow parameters used to determine minimum flow requirements using the R2Cross method (from Nehring 1979). Stream width (ft) Average depth (ft) Average velocity Wetted Perimeter (ft/sec) (%) 1-20 0.2 or greater 1 50 21-40 0.2-0.4 1 50 41-60 0.4-0.6 1 50 to 60 61-100 0.6-1.0 1 70 or greater Based on the above parameters and the White River riffle width, the threshold values would be at the highest level in the parameter table. Haines et al. (2004) summarize the riffle water width coverage for 75% water coverage. The average discharge required for 75% water width across 42 riffles is 218.7 cfs. An analysis of the wetted perimeter graph in Haines et al. (2004) results in a similar flow value of 221 cfs (Table 3). The average depth threshold base on the average riffle width would be 1.0 foot. The flow value that meets this threshold in 88 percent of more of the riffles is 150 cfs or higher (Table 1). Haines et al. (2004) do not provide individual velocity values for each riffle at all flows simulated. They provide a summary for all riffles at a flow of 339 cfs, 424 cfs and 552 cfs. The mean velocities at 339 cfs (the lowest flow reported) range from 1.8 feet/second (fps) to 2.2 fps across all riffles. The mean depths at 339 cfs range from 1.2 feet to 1.3 feet (Haines et al. 2004). These values are higher than the R2Cross parameter threshold so the minimum flow for the depth and velocity criteria would be lower than 339 cfs and equal to or greater than the 70% wetted perimeter value of 221 cfs. The lowest possible summer minimum flow based on the data from Haines et al. using the State of Colorado criteria would be 221 cfs. W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 17 May 1, 2020 Table 3. Discharge that provides 70% wetted perimeter and total wetted width for individual White River riffle cross sections from visual estimates of graphs presented in Haines et al. 2004. W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 18 May 1, 2020 The interim flow recommendations (Anderson et al. 2019) vary by hydrologic year type, season and recurrence interval. Specific recommendations are made to address spring peak and shoulder flows intended for habitat maintenance, creation, and sediment transport (Table 4). Base flows recommendations are separated into irrigation season (Table 5) and non-irrigation season (Table 6). The logic for the recommended flows is to continue the inter- and intraannual variation in stream flow that currently supports the robust native fish and aquatic community in the White River, which will benefit the endangered fish. The water volumes needed to meet these flows ranges from near 60, 000 acre-feet (90% exceedance, wet year) to just over 8,000 acre-feet (100 % exceedance, dry year) at the USGS gage at Watson (Table 7). The shoulder flows and spring peak flows function to support and benefit preparation and migration for spawning fish. The irrigation base flows function to preserve and maintain the fish passage and stream productivity needed to maintain and improve conditions for the endangered fish. The USFWS state that the greatest change in riffle wetted perimeter and loss of depth for passage occurs at flow less than 150 cfs (Anderson et al. 2019). The non-irrigation season flows are intended for preserve over-winter habitat for all species including the endangered fish. Interim flow recommendations are intended to mimic the current flow regime in the White River at the Watson gage, which exists at the current level of water use in the basin. The draft interim flow recommendations were derived from a combination of hydrologic modeling and interpretation of gage data. Hydrologic modeling using the current baseline for the White River predicted zero flow days at the Watson gage. The gage data included a low flow in a dry year of 13 cfs. The USFWS lists the proposed instream flow at the 100% exceedance value in dry year of 30 cfs for the 139-day June 15-October 31 time period to avoid extremely detrimental conditions to the endangered species. The flow volume to meet the 30 cfs flow would require 8257 acre-feet of water, not accounting for transit loss or evaporation during the irrigation season. For comparison, a higher minimum flow of 150 cfs for 139 days that maintains riffle passage and productivity at the level prior to the greatest decline, would require 41,283 acre-feet of water at the Watson gage during the irrigation season. W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 19 May 1, 2020 Additional consumptive use is predicted based on future growth in the Whiter River basin, which would reduce streamflow downstream from those uses from those now reported for current conditions. The interim flow recommendations are a stepped function that results in a different flow exceedance value is the river is managed down to the recommendations (Figure 5). The ability to maintain and recover the endangered species would be impacted if flows are reduced from current conditions. Increased demand and consumption without augmentation in downstream river reaches could shift the hydrologic regime to a drier condition and less beneficial conditions for the endangered species. Maintaining the flow at a minimum of 150 cfs for all conditions shown in the shaded portion of Table 5 for Average, Moderately Dry and Dry year types would be more beneficial to the endangered fish. Table 4. Recommended spring peak and shoulder flows by hydrologic year type from Anderson et al. (2019). W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 20 May 1, 2020 Table 5. Recommended irrigation season base flows by hydrologic year type from Anderson et al. (2019). Table 6. Recommended non-irrigation season base flows by hydrologic year type from Anderson et al. (2019). W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 21 May 1, 2020 Table 7. Flow volume (acre-feet) required for each interim instream flow recommendation from Anderson et al. 2019. Figure 5. Flow duration curve for White River at Watson gage from June 15 to October 31 of four “dry” years as presented in Anderson et al. 2019. W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 22 May 1, 2020 2.6. Future White River consumptive and non-consumptive water demands and the Rio Blanco Water Conservancy District proposed storage water right. An ongoing effort is in place to develop a Management Plan for the White River as well as a Programmatic Biological Opinion (PBO) to address future water development in the basin. This same approach of developing a management plan and PBO has been applied on the Colorado, Yampa and Gunnison rivers. This approach fits with the dual goals of the UBCRRIP to recover the endangered fishes and allow water development to proceed according to federal and state laws. An estimate of future development and consumptive use as well as the amount of water needed to support environmental flows is part of this process. The scenarios include a range for projections from low levels of new demands to high levels of new demands. The Colorado Water Plan makes predictions for water use to the year 2050. The projections include predicted increases for Municipal & Industrial use and energy development. Energy development includes both Oil and Natural gas and Oil Shale. An increase in future water use could reduce the frequency and occurrence of the current flows. The Rio Blanco Water Conservancy District has made an application for storage water rights for Wolf Creek Reservoir that includes releases of stored water for maintenance and recovery of federally listed threatened and endangered species. The amount of water specified for endangered fish flows is 42,000 acre-feet (Wheeler 2015) but could range from 21,283 acre-feet to 208,850 acre-feet to meet the endangered fish augmentation requirements (Wheeler 2020). The total maximum long-term needs for M&I, Oil and Natural Gas, and Oil Shale is listed as 48,950 acre-feet (Wheeler 2015, Wheeler 2020). 3. Summary and Opinion The White River is a major tributary in the Green River basin. The endangered species that are found in the White River are part of a larger metapopulation within the Green River basin and its tributaries. The importance of the White River to the recovery of the endangered species is W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 23 May 1, 2020 noted in Tyus and Saunders (2001) and Lentsch et al. (2000). The White River currently supports all life stages of Colorado Pikeminnow and reproduction by Razorback Sucker was documented in recent years. The presence and increase in the numbers of these fish demonstrate the importance of the White River to recovery of these species. The current populations are the result of the habitat and flow conditions in the river with current levels of use. Colorado Pikeminnow use a wide range of habitats depending on season and activity. Some Colorado Pikeminnow also make long spawning migrations during summer from the White River to known spawning locations in other portions of the Green River basin. Colorado Pikeminnow also move within shorter river reaches during late summer and fall to feed in riffles. Some of these movements require passage through several riffles on a daily or weekly basis. Razorback Sucker feed on periphyton, algae and invertebrates and these prey items are generally found in or near riffle habitats. It is important for the recovery of the endangered species to keep these riffle habitats passable and productive. The USFWS state that research in the White River has shown that a flow of 150 cfs is the point at which the decline in riffle habitat and depth becomes greatest (Anderson et al. 2019). The flow regime in the river today still retains a relatively natural snow-melt runoff shape with inter- and intra-annual variation. These variations provide the range of conditions that maintain the habitat and support the aquatic species, including endangered species, in the river. Future water consumptive use, as projected, in the White River without augmentation would reduce the flow volume and potentially seasonal timing of flows to the detriment of endangered species. Fish monitoring data in the Upper Colorado River Basin under current conditions has shown that extreme low flows in dry water years favor some non-native species, such as Smallmouth Bass, and are not beneficial to native fish. The USFWS interim flow recommendations list a flow of 30 cfs should be the flow met 100% of the time in dry years. The USFWS acknowledges that this low flow while preventing complete drying of the river may result in increased non-native populations and result in less productivity and riffle passage. W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 24 May 1, 2020 The UCRRIP has the dual objective of recovery of endangered species and allow water development to proceed in accordance with federal and state laws. It is important to note the objective of “recovery” of endangered species is not to maintain the status quo (i.e. endangered status but avoid extinction). The UCRRIP identified several elements to recover the endangered fish. One of these elements is to identify, provide and protect instream flows to maintain and benefit endangered species. Identification and providing water to meet recommended instream flow regimes has occurred in the Colorado, Gunnison and Yampa rivers through the use of reservoir releases. Yampa River summer base flows are augmented with water specifically for endangered fish benefit from Elkhead Reservoir. In conclusion, it is my opinion that the interim flow recommendations for peak flows and shoulder flows are appropriate to maintain and benefit the endangered fish in the White River. The flows are typical of the magnitude and timing of the current peak and shoulder flow regime, which create and maintain habitat, provide spawning cues, and opportunities for migration. It is my opinion that separation of base flows into irrigation and non-irrigation seasons is appropriate. The endangered species use habitat differently in summer and winter, which require different levels of flow. Mid-summer is the time when migrating Colorado Pikeminnow return to the White River and passage over riffles is critical to the return to their home ranges. Summer and fall are the seasons when water temperature and food availability promote growth for aquatic biota, including the endangered fish, to prepare the species for the colder winter months. Movement through and within riffle habitat is critical for feeding and growth. It is my opinion that maintaining summer base flows at a minimum of 150 cfs is more likely to assist in recovery of the endangered species than the lowest flows specified in dry years. Fish passage and riffle wetted perimeter are substantially higher at 150 cfs than at flows of 100 cfs and lower. The hydrologic modeling and gage analysis show that the 150 cfs flow is not W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 25 May 1, 2020 available at all times, which would require augmentation of flows. Wolf Creek Reservoir would have water specifically available for release to benefit the endangered fishes. Further, it is my opinion that the projected additional future water consumption in the White River over current conditions would require augmentation of flows to meet the USFWS interim flow recommendations. The predicted long-term future non-irrigation uses are as much as 48, 950 acre-feet (Wheeler 2015, Wheeler 2020). Future water demands and use at that level would require a commensurate release to meet the interim flow recommendations. The Rio Blanco Water Conservancy District has applied for a storage right for Wolf Creek Reservoir that includes a specified use for maintenance and recovery of endangered fish that could offset the stream flow reduction due to future demands. It is my opinion that the best reservoir site for releases to benefit endangered species in the White River downstream from Taylor Draw Dam would be a location upstream of and close to Kenney Reservoir. The Wolf Creek Reservoir location meets these criteria. It is my opinion that the minimum flow in the White River to benefit endangered fishes is 150 cfs. A flow of 150 cfs keeps the majority of riffles passable by Colorado Pikeminnow and productive for food resources consumed by Colorado Pikeminnow and Razorback Sucker. It is my opinion that additional releases will be needed to meet these criteria in certain average, moderately dry and dry years. The water volume needed would range from approximately 21,000 acre-feet (50% exceedance dry year) to over 41,000 acre-feet (100% exceedance dry year) at the Watson Gage, not including transit loss and evaporation (Table 8). Table 8. Acre-feet volume required to meet the 150 cfs recommended minimum flow during irrigation season in average, moderately dry and dry years. W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 26 May 1, 2020 It is my opinion that the storage right for Wolf Creek Reservoir will needed for the additional releases to meet the recommended flows for maintenance and recovery of endangered fishes. W.J. Miller Expert Report Case No. 14CW3043 27