SUMMARY • • • • • • • • GEORGIA STATE REPORT 10.04.2020 Georgia is in the orange zone for cases, indicating between 51 and 100 new cases per 100,000 population last week, with the 28th highest rate in the country. Georgia is in the yellow zone for test positivity, indicating a rate between 5.0% and 7.9%, with the 21st highest rate in the country. Georgia has seen a decrease in new cases and stability in test positivity over the last week. The following three counties had the highest number of new cases over the last 3 weeks: 1. Gwinnett County, 2. Fulton County, and 3. DeKalb County. These counties represent 19.1% of new cases in Georgia. 63% of all counties in Georgia have moderate or high levels of community transmission (yellow, orange, or red zones), with 19% having high levels of community transmission (red zone). During the week of Sep 21 - Sep 27, 8% of nursing homes had at least one new resident COVID-19 case, 22% had at least one new staff COVID-19 case, and 7% had at least one new resident COVID-19 death. Georgia had 77 new cases per 100,000 population in the last week, compared to a national average of 90 per 100,000. Current staff deployed from the federal government as assets to support the state response are: 41 to support operations activities from FEMA; 9 to support operations activities from ASPR; 2 to support testing activities from CDC; 27 to support epidemiology activities from CDC; 1 to support operations activities from CDC; 4 to support operations activities from USCG; and 1 to support operations activities from VA. Between Sep 26 - Oct 2, on average, 183 patients with confirmed COVID-19 and 240 patients with suspected COVID-19 were reported as newly admitted each day to hospitals in Georgia. An average of 94% of hospitals reported either new confirmed or new suspected COVID patients each day during this period. RECOMMENDATIONS • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Georgia has made progress and to sustain the gains, should continue the strong mitigation efforts statewide and continue mitigation efforts in university towns to decrease spread from universities to the local community. Mitigation efforts must continue to include mask wearing, physical distancing, hand hygiene, and avoiding crowds. Must increase testing statewide. Ensure all hospitals are aware that COVID-19 antivirals and antibodies work best when used early in the course of infection. Ensure universities and colleges continue rapid testing and contact tracing of symptomatic students as well as routine surveillance testing of students to find asymptomatic students, with quick turnaround times for results, and the rapid isolation of cases and quarantine of contacts; residential cases and contacts should not be sent home to isolate or quarantine unless necessary. Increase percent of students screened each week to 10% if test positivity of asymptomatic students is greater than 5%. For universities, would immediately consider antibody surveillance testing of both off and on campus students to establish asymptomatic infection rate during the fall. It is possible, based on the current number of symptomatic students, that 15-20% of all university students have been infected. This would provide data for the spring semester. Modeling the current total infections, impact on R1 (disease rate among those exposed), and the potential for immunization of high-risk faculty and staff may allow for increased students in classroom in the spring with full mask use. Use focused wastewater surveillance to detect cases early and direct diagnostic testing and public health interventions to those dorms or student areas. Track increasing test positivity, new cases, and new daily hospitalizations in university towns or counties with more than 5,000 students and react to any week over week increases with increased mitigation in those counties; surge community level testing. Abbott BinaxNOW arrived at Historically Black Colleges and Universities, ensuring rapid diagnosis and isolation of both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. In preparation for fall, continue to increase testing capacity by increasing the budget and capacity of public health labs and expanding flu immunizations. Implement the plan for increased surveillance for silent community spread by using the Abbott BinaxNOW or antigen tests. Establish weekly surveillance in critical populations to monitor degree of community spread among K-12 teachers; staff working at nursing homes, assisted living, and other congregate living settings; prison staff; and first responders as tests become available. All antigen positive results must be reported with both the number of positive results and total tests conducted; these must be reported as COVID cases. Ask citizens and students to limit friend and family gatherings to prevent recreating spreading events in homes, resulting in new cases and infection of those with comorbidities. Continued new nursing home staff cases must be controlled by contact tracing in the communities where the staff reside and aggressive community testing and containment in those communities. Expanded nursing home cases must be controlled with aggressive testing of all staff and isolation of positive residents. Specific, detailed guidance on community mitigation measures can be found on the CDC website. The purpose of this report is to develop a shared understanding of the current status of the pandemic at the national, regional, state and local levels. We recognize that data at the state level may differ from that available at the federal level. Our objective is to use consistent data sources and methods that allow for comparisons to be made across localities. We appreciate your continued support in identifying data discrepancies and improving data completeness and sharing across systems. We look forward to your feedback. COVID-19 COVID-19 GEORGIA STATE REPORT 10.04.2020 STATE, LAST WEEK STATE, % CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS WEEK FEMA/HHS REGION, LAST WEEK UNITED STATES, LAST WEEK NEW COVID-19 CASES (RATE PER 100,000) 8,123 (77) -17% 63,742 (95) 294,477 (90) VIRAL (RT-PCR) LAB TEST POSITIVITY RATE 6.0% -0.1%* 6.0% 4.6% 114,179** (1,075) -7%** 1,004,096** (1,501) 6,436,385** (1,961) COVID-19 DEATHS (RATE PER 100,000) 235 (2.2) -30% 1,567 (2.3) 4,935 (1.5) SNFs WITH ≥1 NEW RESIDENT COVID-19 CASE (≥1 NEW STAFF CASE) 8% (22%) -9%* (-9%*) 15% (28%) 9% (20%) 7% -1%* 6% 3% TOTAL VIRAL (RT-PCR) LAB TESTS (TESTS PER 100,000) MOBILITY SNFs WITH ≥1 NEW RESIDENT COVID-19 DEATH * Indicates absolute change in percentage points. ** Due to delayed reporting, this figure may underestimate total diagnostic tests and week-on-week changes in diagnostic tests. DATA SOURCES – Additional data details available under METHODS Note: Some dates may have incomplete data due to delays in reporting. Data may be backfilled over time, resulting in week-to-week changes. Cases and Deaths: State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, the values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data is through 10/2/2020; last week is 9/26 - 10/2, previous week is 9/19 - 9/25. Testing: CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data through 9/30/2020. Last week is 9/24 - 9/30, previous week is 9/17 9/23. Mobility: Descartes Labs. This data depicts the median distance moved across a collection of mobile devices to estimate the level of human mobility within a county. The 100% represents the baseline mobility level prior to the pandemic; lower percent mobility indicates less population movement. Data is anonymized and provided at the county level. Data through 10/1/2020. SNFs: Skilled nursing facilities. National Healthcare Safety Network. Data are reported separately for cases among residents and staff. Last week is 9/21-9/27, previous week is 9/14-9/20. COVID-19 GEORGIA STATE REPORT 10.04.2020 COVID-19 COUNTY AND METRO ALERTS* Top 12 shown in table (full lists below) METRO AREA (CBSA) LAST WEEK LOCALITIES IN RED ZONE LOCALITIES IN ORANGE ZONE LOCALITIES IN YELLOW ZONE 8 10 14 Rome Cornelia Vidalia Tifton Toccoa Summerville Fitzgerald Eufaula Augusta-Richmond County Savannah Gainesville Macon-Bibb County Valdosta Milledgeville Calhoun Jesup Thomaston Moultrie Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta Columbus Chattanooga Dalton Warner Robins Statesboro Jefferson Brunswick Hinesville St. Marys Waycross LaGrange COUNTY LAST WEEK 30 Floyd Walker Habersham Union Emanuel Stephens Tift Elbert Toombs Chattooga Burke Haralson 29 Hall Chatham Richmond Columbia Carroll Bartow Douglas Lowndes Baldwin Gordon Effingham Walton 41 Gwinnett Cherokee Forsyth Henry Bibb Whitfield Houston Clayton Bulloch Jackson Barrow Paulding All Yellow CBSAs: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Columbus, Chattanooga, Dalton, Warner Robins, Statesboro, Jefferson, Brunswick, Hinesville, St. Marys, Waycross, LaGrange, Bainbridge, Thomasville All Red Counties: Floyd, Walker, Habersham, Union, Emanuel, Tift, Stephens, Elbert, Toombs, Chattooga, Haralson, Burke, Ben Hill, Appling, Towns, Jefferson, Mitchell, Candler, Jenkins, Rabun, Montgomery, Pike, Charlton, Wheeler, Evans, Wilkinson, Warren, Twiggs, Hancock, Calhoun All Orange Counties: Hall, Chatham, Richmond, Columbia, Carroll, Bartow, Douglas, Lowndes, Baldwin, Gordon, Effingham, Walton, Fannin, Tattnall, Wayne, Upson, Screven, Monroe, Banks, Dodge, Butts, Jones, Pierce, Irwin, McDuffie, Hart, Colquitt, Berrien, Brooks All Yellow Counties: Gwinnett, Cherokee, Forsyth, Henry, Bibb, Whitfield, Houston, Clayton, Bulloch, Jackson, Barrow, Paulding, Coweta, Glynn, Newton, Bryan, Coffee, Camden, Troup, Liberty, Decatur, Franklin, Oconee, Spalding, Ware, Madison, Murray, Dawson, Grady, Thomas, Peach, Gilmer, Early, Oglethorpe, Harris, Bleckley, Lamar, Greene, Telfair, Worth, Turner * Localities with fewer than 10 cases last week have been excluded from these alerts. Note: Lists of red, orange, and yellow localities are sorted by the number of new cases in the last 3 weeks, from highest to lowest. Some dates may have incomplete data due to delays in reporting. Data may be backfilled over time, resulting in week-to-week changes. DATA SOURCES – Additional data details available under METHODS Cases and Deaths: State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, the values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data is through 10/2/2020; last week is 9/26 - 10/2, three weeks is 9/12 - 10/2. Testing: CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data through 9/30/2020. Last week is 9/24 - 9/30. COVID-19 GEORGIA TESTING NEW CASES STATE REPORT 10.04.2020 TOP COUNTIES Top counties based on greatest number of new cases in last three weeks (9/12 - 10/2) DATA SOURCES – Additional data details available under METHODS Note: Some dates may have incomplete data due to delays in reporting. Data may be backfilled over time, resulting in week-to-week changes. Cases: State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, the values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data is through 10/2/2020. Testing: CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data through 9/30/2020. COVID-19 TOTAL DAILY CASES Top 12 counties based on number of new cases in the last 3 weeks DATA SOURCES – Additional data details available under METHODS Cases: State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, the values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data is through 10/2/2020. Last 3 weeks is 9/12 - 10/2. COVID-19 GEORGIA STATE REPORT 10.04.2020 CASE RATES AND VIRAL LAB TEST POSITIVITY DURING THE LAST WEEK NEW CASES PER 100,000 DURING THE LAST WEEK VIRAL (RT-PCR) LABORATORY TEST POSITIVITY DURING THE LAST WEEK WEEKLY CHANGE IN NEW CASES PER 100,000 WEEKLY CHANGE IN VIRAL (RT-PCR) LABORATORY TEST POSITIVITY DATA SOURCES – Additional data details available under METHODS Note: Some dates may have incomplete data due to delays in reporting. Data may be backfilled over time, resulting in week-to-week changes. Cases: State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, the values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data is through 10/2/2020. Last week is 9/26 - 10/2, previous week is 9/19 - 9/25. Testing: CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data through 9/30/2020. Last week is 9/24 - 9/30, previous week is 9/17 - 9/23. COVID-19 National Picture NEW CASES PER 100,000 LAST WEEK NATIONAL RANKING OF NEW CASES PER 100,000 LAST WEEK National Rank NEW CASES PER 100,000 IN THE WEEK ONE MONTH BEFORE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 State ND SD WI MT UT IA NE ID AR OK MO KS WY TN MN KY AL MS AK NV IL IN TX SC NC DE RI GA LA WV FL NM CO OH MI MD VA MA CA PA NJ HI CT WA AZ OR NY DC NH ME VT DATA SOURCES Note: Some dates may have incomplete data due to delays in reporting. Data may be backfilled over time, resulting in week-to-week changes. Cases: County-level data from USAFacts through 10/2/2020. Last week is 9/26 - 10/2; the week one month before is 8/29 - 9/4. COVID-19 National Picture VIRAL (RT-PCR) LAB TEST POSITIVITY LAST WEEK NATIONAL RANKING OF TEST POSITIVITY LAST WEEK National Rank VIRAL (RT-PCR) LAB TEST POSITIVITY IN THE WEEK ONE MONTH BEFORE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 State MT UT ID SD OK NE WI MO NV KY AL IA KS SC ND MS TN TX AR VA GA OR IN NC MN WY FL IL LA DE WV AZ AK PA HI MI MD CO CA WA NM OH NJ CT NH RI NY MA DC ME VT DATA SOURCES Note: Some dates may have incomplete data due to delays in reporting. Data may be backfilled over time, resulting in week-to-week changes. Testing: Combination of CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data and HHS Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and commercial labs) through 9/30/2020. Last week is 9/24 - 9/30; the week one month before is 8/27 - 9/2. COVID-19 METHODS STATE REPORT 10.04.2020 COLOR THRESHOLDS: Results for each indicator should be taken in context of the findings for related indicators (e.g., changes in case incidence and testing volume). Values are rounded before color classification. Metric Dark Green Light Green Yellow Orange Red ≤4 5–9 10 – 50 51 – 100 ≥101 Percent change in new cases per 100,000 population ≤-26% -25% – -11% -10% – 0% 1% – 10% ≥11% Diagnostic test result positivity rate ≤2.9% 3.0% – 4.9% 5.0% – 7.9% 8.0% – 10.0% ≥10.1% Change in test positivity ≤-2.1% -2.0% – -0.6% -0.5% – 0.0% 0.1% – 0.5% ≥0.6% Total diagnostic tests resulted per 100,000 population per week ≥2001 1001 – 2000 750 – 1000 500 – 749 ≤499 Percent change in tests per 100,000 population ≥26% 11% – 25% 1% – 10% -10% – 0% ≤-11% COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population per week ≤0.1 0.2 – 0.4 0.5 – 1.0 1.1 – 2.0 ≥2.1 Percent change in deaths per 100,000 population ≤-26% -25% – -11% -10% – 0% 1% – 10% ≥11% New cases per 100,000 population per week Skilled Nursing Facilities with at least one resident COVID-19 case, death 0% 1% – 5% ≥6% Change in SNFs with at least one resident COVID-19 case, death ≤-2% -1% – 1% ≥2% DATA NOTES • • • • • • • Some dates may have incomplete data due to delays in reporting. Data may be backfilled over time, resulting in week-to-week changes. It is critical that states provide as up-to-date data as possible. Cases and deaths: County-level data from USAFacts as of 16:56 EDT on 10/04/2020. State values are calculated by aggregating county-level data from USAFacts; therefore, values may not match those reported directly by the state. Data are reviewed on a daily basis against internal and verified external sources and, if needed, adjusted. Last week data are from 9/26 to 10/2; previous week data are from 9/19 to 9/25; the week one month before data are from 8/29 to 9/4. Testing: The data presented represent viral COVID-19 laboratory diagnostic and screening test (reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, RT-PCR) results—not individual people—and exclude antibody and antigen tests, unless stated otherwise. CELR (COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting) state health department-reported data are used to describe county-level viral COVID-19 laboratory test (RT-PCR) result totals when information is available on patients’ county of residence or healthcare providers’ practice location. HHS Protect laboratory data (provided directly to Federal Government from public health labs, hospital labs, and commercial labs) are used otherwise. Some states did not report on certain days, which may affect the total number of tests resulted and positivity rate values. Because the data are deidentified, total viral (RT-PCR) laboratory tests are the number of tests performed, not the number of individuals tested. Viral (RT-PCR) laboratory test positivity rate is the number of positive tests divided by the number of tests performed and resulted. Resulted tests are assigned to a timeframe based on this hierarchy of test-related dates: 1. test date; 2. result date; 3. specimen received date; 4. specimen collection date. Resulted tests are assigned to a county based on a hierarchy of test-related locations: 1. patient residency; 2. provider facility location; 3. ordering facility location; 4. performing organization location. States may calculate test positivity other using other methods. Last week data are from 9/24 to 9/30; previous week data are from 9/17 to 9/23; the week one month before data are from 8/27 to 9/2. HHS Protect data is recent as of 11:17 EDT on 10/04/2020. Testing data are inclusive of everything received and processed by the CELR system as of 19:00 EDT on 10/03/2020. Mobility: Descartes Labs. These data depict the median distance moved across a collection of mobile devices to estimate the level of human mobility within a locality. The 100% represents the baseline mobility level prior to the pandemic; lower percent mobility indicates less population movement. Data is anonymized and provided at the locality level. Data is recent as of 16:47 EDT on 10/04/2020 and is through 10/1/2020. Hospitalizations: Unified hospitalization dataset in HHS Protect. This figure may differ from state data due to differences in hospital lists and reporting between federal and state systems. These data exclude psychiatric, rehabilitation, and religious non-medical hospitals. In addition, hospitals explicitly identified by states/regions as those from which we should not expect reports were excluded from the percent reporting figure. The data presented represents raw data provided; we are working diligently with state liaisons to improve reporting consistency. Data is recent as of 18:09 EDT on 10/04/2020. Skilled Nursing Facilities: National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). Data report resident and staff cases independently. Quality checks are performed on data submitted to the NHSN. Data that fail these quality checks or appear inconsistent with surveillance protocols may be excluded from analyses. Data presented in this report are more recent than data publicly posted by CMS. Last week is 9/21-9/27, previous week is 9/14-9/20. County and Metro Area Color Categorizations • Red Zone: Those core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) and counties that during the last week reported both new cases at or above 101 per 100,000 population, and a lab test positivity result at or above 10.1%. • Orange Zone: Those CBSAs and counties that during the last week reported both new cases between 51–100 per 100,000 population, and a lab test positivity result between 8.0–10.0%, or one of those two conditions and one condition qualifying as being in the “Red Zone.” • Yellow Zone: Those CBSAs and counties that during the last week reported both new cases between 10–50 per 100,000 population, and a lab test positivity result between 5.0–7.9%, or one of those two conditions and one condition qualifying as being in the “Orange Zone” or “Red Zone.”