Representative Sample of 699 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 1 Topline Q10 Prosecutor in the August primary, voters chose Steve Alm* and Megan Kau* as the two candidates who will run for Honolulu Prosecutor this November. If you vote for Honolulu Prosecutor in the upcoming election, which candidate are you most likely to support? Steve Alm Megan Kau Neither candidate Unsure Percentage among those who chose a candidate 58% 42% --- Totals 43% 31% 5% 21% *Note: The order in which the candidates' names were presented was randomized. Q11 Prosecutor Term Limits On Oahu, there are term limits for the Mayor and City Council members, who can each serve only two four-year terms in office. But there is no such term limit for Honolulu's Prosecutor. In November, there will be a question on the ballot that could revise the city charter to establish a limit of two terms for Prosecutor. How do you think you will vote on this ballot question? Will vote YES on term limits Will vote NO on term limits Won't vote on term limits Unsure 73% 11% 2% 14% Representative Sample of 699 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 2 Crosstabs Q10 Prosecutor in the August primary, voters chose Steve Alm* and Megan Kau* as the two candidates who will run for Honolulu Prosecutor this November. If you vote for Honolulu Prosecutor in the upcoming election, which candidate are you most likely to support? Prosecutor Alm Kau Neither Unsure Total Gender Male Female 41% 45% 37% 27% 4% 6% 18% 23% 100% 100% Prosecutor Alm Kau Neither Unsure Total Age Group 18-49 50 or older 36% 46% 26% 33% 9% 3% 30% 18% 100% 100% Prosecutor Alm Kau Neither Unsure Total Ancestry Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Other/Mixed 47% 49% 25% 50% 50% 35% 26% 33% 32% 32% 26% 32% 4% 3% 10% 3% 3% 7% 24% 15% 32% 15% 22% 26% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Representative Sample of 699 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 Prosecutor Alm Kau Neither Unsure Total No College College Degree Degree 46% 40% 30% 34% 4% 5% 19% 22% 100% 100% Prosecutor Alm Kau Neither Unsure Total Party Democrat Republican Independent 51% 31% 33% 24% 43% 45% 5% 8% 3% 20% 19% 20% 100% 100% 100% Prosecutor Alm Kau Neither Unsure Total Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative 47% 51% 32% 23% 29% 45% 7% 5% 3% 24% 15% 21% 100% 100% 100% 3 Representative Sample of 699 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 4 Prosecutor Alm Kau Neither Unsure Total Income Less than $50,000More than $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 35% 44% 48% 42% 30% 29% 7% 4% 5% 17% 22% 19% 100% 100% 100% Prosecutor Alm Kau Neither Unsure Total Prosecutor Primary Alm Kau Esser Other None/Not sure 86% 6% 45% 27% 10% 7% 86% 20% 37% 13% 1% 1% 11% 3% 13% 7% 7% 23% 33% 64% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 5 Representative Sample of 699 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 Q11 Prosecutor Term Limits On Oahu, there are term limits for the Mayor and City Council members, who can each serve only two four-year terms in office. But there is no such term limit for Honolulu's Prosecutor. In November, there will be a question on the ballot that could revise the city charter to establish a limit of two terms for Prosecutor. How do you think you will vote on this ballot question? Term Limits Support Oppose Won't vote on question Unsure Total Term Limits Support Oppose Won't vote on question Unsure Total Gender Male Female 78% 70% 16% 7% 1% 3% 5% 20% 100% 100% Age Group 18-49 50 or older 79% 71% 6% 13% 1% 3% 15% 13% 100% 100% Ancestry Term Limits Total Support Oppose Won't vote on question Unsure Other/ Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Mixed 79% 68% 66% 78% 49% 81% 9% 15% 9% 13% 16% 4% 1% 10% 100% 3% 14% 100% 3% 23% 100% 2% 7% 100% 3% 32% 100% 1% 14% 100% Representative Sample of 699 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 6 College Degree Term Limits Support Oppose Won't vote on question Unsure Total Term Limits Support Oppose Won't vote on question Unsure Total Term Limits Total Support Oppose Won't vote on question Unsure No College College Degree Degree 76% 76% 11% 10% 2% 1% 11% 13% 100% 100% Party Democrat Republican Independent 73% 80% 76% 12% 6% 13% 2% 2% 2% 14% 12% 9% 100% 100% 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative 71% 77% 78% 14% 10% 8% 1% 3% 1% 14% 10% 12% 100% 100% 100% 7 Representative Sample of 699 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 Term Limits Support Oppose Won't vote on question Unsure Total Term Limits Support Oppose Won't vote on question Unsure Total Income Less than $50,000More than $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 79% 78% 73% 9% 9% 16% 1% 2% 2% 12% 11% 10% 100% 100% 100% Prosecutor Alm Kau 70% 13% 3% 14% 100% 82% 12% 1% 5% 100% Neither Unsure 63% 68% 7% 6% 11% 1% 19% 25% 100% 100% Prosecutor Primary Alm Term Limits Total Support Oppose Won't vote on question Unsure 74% 10% 2% 15% 100% Kau Esser Other 80% 76% 57% 14% 10% 25% 2% 2% 2% 4% 12% 16% 100% 100% 100% None/ Not sure 66% 4% 5% 25% 100% 8 Representative Sample of 699 Registered Voters on Oahu Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 About the Poll Civil Beat surveyed a random sample of 988 registered voters statewide. Surveys were fielded from October 2 – 7, 2020, using a combination of interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling) and a survey administered online. Both the touch-tone and online version of the poll were conducted using random, probability-based sampling of registered voters in Hawaii. The touch-tone version was conducted by contacting landline telephones. The online version was conducted by texting cellphones and linking poll participants to an online survey optimized for smartphones. Questions in the telephone and online versions of the survey were nearly identical, other than differences necessitated by the different platforms. The text-to-online version of the poll replaces our previous method of contacting cellphones via live call agents, but retains the same method to identify a randomly-selected subset of registered voters to contact. The new (text) method yields a much higher survey completion rate and a more demographically diverse set of respondents than did the previous (call-agent) method. Approximately two thirds of the total sample completed the poll via landline and the other one third completed it via text-to-online. Results were adjusted for voter likelihood and also balanced for gender, age, ancestry/ethnicity/race, county and Congressional District of residence, and education (college degree attainment) to match the demographic parameters of registered voters statewide. The overall margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates and design effect (the effect of weighting results based on demographics) are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The adjusted margin of error, accounting for the design effect is +/- 3.9 percentage points. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result. The sample included 699 registered voters on Oahu (margin of error +/- 3.7 percentage points). The adjusted margin of error for Oahu, accounting for the design effect is +/- 4.6 percentage points. Some columns may sum to totals slightly higher or lower than 100% due to rounding. The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with MRG Research, a public opinion research organization specializing in issues and candidate polling, message testing, and persuasive communications. Twitter: @MRG_Research