Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 Toplines Q5 Ige Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Hawaii's Governor, David Ige? Positive Negative Unsure 19% 56% 24% Q6 Green Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Hawaii's Lieutenant Governor, Josh Green? Positive Negative Unsure 66% 14% 20% Q7 Caldwell Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell? Positive Negative Unsure Statewide 28% 42% 30% Oahu only 30% 46% 24% Q8 Legislature Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Hawaii's State Legislature? Positive Negative Unsure 25% 45% 29% 1 Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 Q17 Covid-19, Effective Generally, do you think the state and local stay-at-home and quarantine orders have been effective or ineffective at reducing the spread of the Coronavirus? Effective Ineffective Unsure 71% 21% 7% Q18 Covid-19, Necessary Generally, do you think the stay-at-home and quarantine orders have been necessary or unnecessary? Necessary Unnecessary Unsure 77% 19% 4% 2 Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 3 Crosstabs Q5 Ige Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Hawaii's Governor, David Ige? Ige Positive Negative Unsure Total Ige Positive Negative Unsure Total Ige Positive Negative Unsure Total Gender Male Female 18% 21% 61% 54% 21% 26% 100% 100% Age Group 18-49 50 or older 10% 23% 69% 51% 21% 26% 100% 100% Ancestry Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Other/Mixed 23% 22% 28% 17% 17% 10% 54% 52% 51% 62% 60% 60% 23% 26% 21% 22% 23% 29% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% College Degree Ige Total Positive Negative Unsure No College College Degree Degree 19% 19% 59% 55% 22% 26% 100% 100% Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 Ige Positive Negative Unsure Total Ige Positive Negative Unsure Total Ige Positive Negative Unsure Total Ige Total Positive Negative Unsure Party Democrat Republican Independent 25% 10% 16% 48% 69% 69% 27% 21% 15% 100% 100% 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative 24% 18% 17% 50% 61% 68% 27% 22% 15% 100% 100% 100% Income Less than $50,000More than $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 24% 22% 13% 57% 58% 63% 19% 20% 24% 100% 100% 100% County_CD Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 19% 20% 17% 18% 30% 58% 55% 57% 57% 44% 23% 25% 26% 25% 26% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 4 Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 5 Q6 Green Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Hawaii's Lieutenant Governor, Josh Green? Green Positive Negative Unsure Total Green Positive Negative Unsure Total Green Positive Negative Unsure Total Gender Male Female 64% 68% 17% 12% 19% 20% 100% 100% Age Group 18-49 50 or older 58% 70% 21% 11% 22% 19% 100% 100% Ancestry Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Other/Mixed 70% 69% 62% 76% 43% 55% 12% 11% 17% 10% 40% 15% 18% 19% 21% 14% 17% 30% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% College Degree Green Total Positive Negative Unsure College Degree 64% 17% 19% 100% No College Degree 69% 11% 20% 100% Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 Green Positive Negative Unsure Total Green Positive Negative Unsure Total Green Positive Negative Unsure Total Green Total Positive Negative Unsure Party Democrat Republican Independent 74% 48% 61% 7% 32% 18% 19% 21% 21% 100% 100% 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative 72% 66% 53% 8% 13% 29% 20% 21% 18% 100% 100% 100% Income Less than $50,000More than $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 72% 67% 60% 9% 15% 20% 19% 18% 19% 100% 100% 100% County_CD Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 66% 65% 66% 78% 55% 15% 17% 14% 10% 7% 19% 19% 20% 12% 38% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 6 Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 7 Q7 Caldwell Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell? Caldwell Positive Negative Unsure Total Caldwell Positive Negative Unsure Total Caldwell Positive Negative Unsure Total Gender Male Female 29% 28% 46% 38% 25% 34% 100% 100% Age Group 18-49 50 or older 20% 32% 49% 38% 31% 30% 100% 100% Ancestry Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Other/Mixed 26% 32% 37% 24% 26% 29% 39% 37% 32% 48% 57% 45% 35% 31% 31% 29% 17% 26% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% College Degree Caldwell Total Positive Negative Unsure College Degree 30% 45% 25% 100% No College Degree 25% 40% 35% 100% Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 Caldwell Positive Negative Unsure Total Caldwell Positive Negative Unsure Total Caldwell Positive Negative Unsure Total Caldwell Total Positive Negative Unsure Party Democrat Republican Independent 36% 16% 21% 31% 57% 62% 34% 27% 18% 100% 100% 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative 28% 31% 22% 35% 47% 54% 37% 23% 25% 100% 100% 100% Income Less than $50,000More than $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 31% 31% 22% 38% 38% 53% 31% 31% 25% 100% 100% 100% County_CD Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 30% 32% 22% 27% 22% 47% 44% 33% 31% 31% 24% 24% 45% 42% 47% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 8 Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 9 Q8 Legislature Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Hawaii's State Legislature? Legislature Positive Negative Unsure Total Gender Male Female 28% 24% 51% 41% 21% 35% 100% 100% Legislature Positive Negative Unsure Total Age Group 18-49 50 or older 24% 26% 51% 43% 25% 31% 100% 100% Legislature Positive Negative Unsure Total Ancestry Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Other/Mixed 34% 26% 30% 24% 12% 16% 42% 44% 28% 51% 73% 49% 24% 31% 42% 25% 16% 35% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% College Degree Legislature Positive Negative Unsure Total No College College Degree Degree 26% 25% 49% 43% 24% 32% 100% 100% Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 Legislature Positive Negative Unsure Total Party Democrat Republican Independent 36% 8% 17% 33% 70% 59% 32% 23% 24% 100% 100% 100% Legislature Positive Negative Unsure Total Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative 36% 27% 13% 33% 48% 67% 31% 26% 20% 100% 100% 100% Legislature Positive Negative Unsure Total Income Less than $50,000More than $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 33% 25% 21% 40% 44% 55% 27% 32% 24% 100% 100% 100% Legislature Positive Negative Unsure Total County_CD Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 21% 23% 30% 41% 34% 47% 51% 50% 33% 27% 33% 27% 20% 26% 39% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 10 Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 11 Q17 Covid-19, Effective Generally, do you think the state and local stay-at-home and quarantine orders have been effective or ineffective at reducing the spread of the Coronavirus? Male Effective Effective Ineffective Unsure Total Effective Effective Ineffective Unsure Total Effective Effective Ineffective Unsure Total 66% 26% 8% 100% Female 76% 18% 6% 100% Age Group 18-49 50 or older 66% 74% 27% 19% 7% 7% 100% 100% Ancestry Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Other/Mixed 73% 75% 64% 73% 66% 68% 20% 20% 24% 22% 26% 22% 7% 5% 12% 5% 9% 11% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% College Degree Effective Total Effective Ineffective Unsure College Degree 69% 25% 6% 100% No College Degree 75% 19% 6% 100% Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 Effective Effective Ineffective Unsure Total Effective Effective Ineffective Unsure Total Effective Effective Ineffective Unsure Total Effective Total Effective Ineffective Unsure Party Democrat Republican Independent 86% 45% 55% 10% 44% 35% 4% 11% 9% 100% 100% 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative 85% 75% 49% 11% 19% 42% 4% 6% 8% 100% 100% 100% Income Less than $50,000More than $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 78% 72% 63% 14% 23% 30% 8% 5% 8% 100% 100% 100% County_CD Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 69% 68% 74% 81% 79% 24% 22% 19% 16% 15% 7% 10% 7% 4% 7% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 12 Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 13 Q18 Covid-19, Necessary Generally, do you think the stay-at-home and quarantine orders have been necessary or unnecessary? Necessary Total Necessary Total Necessary Total Gender Male Female Necessary 72% 82% Unnecessary 24% 14% Unsure 4% 4% 100% 100% Age Group 18-49 50 or older Necessary 69% 81% Unnecessary 27% 15% Unsure 4% 4% 100% 100% Ancestry Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Other/Mixed Necessary 77% 85% 67% 80% 68% 75% Unnecessary 19% 11% 29% 17% 27% 22% Unsure 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% College Degree Necessary Total College Degree Necessary 77% Unnecessary 18% Unsure 5% 100% No College Degree 77% 20% 3% 100% Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 Necessary Total Necessary Total Necessary Total Necessary Total 14 Party Democrat Republican Independent Necessary 95% 49% 54% Unnecessary 3% 48% 38% Unsure 2% 3% 8% 100% 100% 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative Necessary 96% 79% 49% Unnecessary 1% 19% 45% Unsure 2% 3% 6% 100% 100% 100% Income Less than $50,000More than $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 Necessary 84% 80% 68% Unnecessary 12% 18% 27% Unsure 4% 3% 5% 100% 100% 100% County_CD Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai Necessary 78% 75% 75% 82% 78% Unnecessary 18% 22% 19% 15% 19% Unsure 4% 3% 6% 4% 3% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Representative Sample of 988 Registered Voters in Hawaii Margin of Error +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded October 2 – 7, 2020 15 About the Poll Civil Beat surveyed a random sample of 988 registered voters statewide. Surveys were fielded from October 2 – 7, 2020, using a combination of interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling) and a survey administered online. Both the touch-tone and online version of the poll were conducted using random, probability-based sampling of registered voters in Hawaii. The touch-tone version was conducted by contacting landline telephones. The online version was conducted by texting cellphones and linking poll participants to an online survey optimized for smartphones. Questions in the telephone and online versions of the survey were nearly identical, other than differences necessitated by the different platforms. The text-to-online version of the poll replaces our previous method of contacting cellphones via live call agents, but retains the same method to identify a randomly-selected subset of registered voters to contact. The new (text) method yields a much higher survey completion rate and a more demographically diverse set of respondents than did the previous (call-agent) method. Approximately two thirds of the total sample completed the poll via landline and the other one third completed it via text-to-online. Results were adjusted for voter likelihood and also balanced for gender, age, ancestry/ethnicity/race, county and Congressional District of residence, and education (college degree attainment) to match the demographic parameters of registered voters statewide. The overall margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates and design effect (the effect of weighting results based on demographics) are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The adjusted margin of error, accounting for the design effect is +/- 3.9 percentage points. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result. Some columns may sum to totals slightly higher or lower than 100% due to rounding. The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with MRG Research, a public opinion research organization specializing in issues and candidate polling, message testing, and persuasive communications. Twitter: @MRG_Research