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Interested Parties
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department
October 22, 2020

LONG TIED IN COMPETITIVE WA -03 RACE
Democrat Carolyn Long is in a statistical tie with
Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler with the
Congresswoman up by just 2 points (47% to 49%
with 5% undecided) in a DCCC Analytics poll of
425 likely general election voters conducted in
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District from
October 19th – 20th. Since the August primary,
this is the second poll showing this race within a
2-point margin and the third time where Herrera
Beutler has been unable to clear 50% illustrating
how vulnerable the incumbent is in this shifting
suburban district.

Congressional Match Up
60%
50%

47%

49%

Carolyn Long

Jaime Herrera Beutler

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

HIGHLY COMPETITIVE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT MOVING
AGAINST TRUMP AND REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump faces significant and growing opposition in this district with half of
voters disapproving of his job performance (50% disapprove, 44% approve),
making the national Republican brand distinctly unpopular. Joe Biden leads Donald
Trump by 2 points (45% to 43% with 12% undecided) which represents a 9-point
swing from when Trump won the district by 7 points in 2016.

LONG IS WINNING AMONG WOMEN AND INDEPENDENTS
WITH ROOM TO GROW
Women voters across the country are running away from Trump and Washington
Republicans and WA-03 is no different. Trump owns a -16 point net job approval
rating among women (40% Approve, 56% disapprove) and Long is winning women
by +9 points over Herrera Beutler (52% to 43%). Long is winning both modeled
Independents and self-identified Independents and is poised to win this swingy
Trump district.
Methodology: These results are based on a survey of 425 WA-03 likely November 2020 general
election voters, conducted by DCCC Analytics Department from October 19-20, 2020, using a
combination of live and automated calls. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%, with a larger margin of
error for demographic subgroups.
About the District: WA-03 is located in southwest Washington, spanning the Portland, OR and
Seattle, WA media markets, including the city of Vancouver and its suburbs. The district is a ruralsuburban mix (38.3% suburban, 37.3% rural, and 24.4% urban by registered voter population).

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