THE DES MOINES REGISTER/MEDIACOM IOWA POLL
Study #2225
814 Iowa likely voters in the 2020 general election
Margin of error: ± 3.4 percentage points

SELZER & COMPANY
October 26-29, 2020
941 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district

Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.
(Based on general population contacts:) How likely is it you will vote in the November general election for president,
U.S. Senate and other offices—will you definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, or probably not vote, or
have you already cast a ballot in early voting?

n=941
n=803
n=801
n=800
n=803
n=801

Already voted
+ Definitely
vote

Already
voted

Definitely
vote

85

43

42

5

3

6

1

80
82
80
81
81

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

80
82
80
81
81

9
10
11
8
10

2
3
5
3
3

8
5
4
5
3

2
3
3

Oct-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Feb-19
Jan-18

Probably
vote

Might or
might not vote

Probably
not vote

Likelihood to vote at 1) roughly similar time in cycle as the September 2020 Iowa Poll and 2) final pre-election poll.
Already voted
+ Definitely
Already
Definitely
Probably
Might or
Probably not
vote
voted
vote
vote
might not vote
vote

Refused/
Not sure

Refused/
Not sure

Nov-16
Oct-16

74
74

25
7

49
67

8
11

5
5

11
9

2
1

Nov-12
Sep-12

84
79

35
n/a

49
79

6
12

2
4

8
5

1
-

Oct-08
Sep-08

87
73

25
n/a

62
73

5
11

2
6

6
9

1

(Based on likely voters:) How likely is it you will vote in the November general election for president, U.S. Senate and
other offices—will you definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, or probably not vote, or have you already
cast a ballot in early voting?

Oct-20
Nov-16
Nov-12
Oct-08

Already voted

Definitely
vote

Probably
vote

Might or
might not vote

51

49

-

-

-

-

34
42
28

66
58
72

-

-

-

-

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SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 1

Probably not
vote

Refused/
Not sure

 (If already voted in Q.1 ask:) In the election for president, for whom did you vote—[DEMOCRAT JOE BIDEN/
REPUBLICAN DONALD TRUMP], or for someone else? (Rotate candidate names.) (If already voted and not sure,
ask:) Do you just not want to tell, or do you not remember? (Then code “Mind is made up” in Q.2c and skip to Q.2d,
if applicable.)
(If definitely vote in Q.1, ask:) If the election for president were held today and the candidates were [DEMOCRAT JOE
BIDEN/ REPUBLICAN DONALD TRUMP], for whom would you vote—[JOE BIDEN/DONALD TRUMP], for
someone else, or would you not vote? (Rotate candidate names.)
(If definite voter names a candidate in Q.2a, skip Q.2b and ask Q.2c.
If definite voter doesn’t name a candidate in Q.2a, continue to Q.2b.)
(Ask only of definite voters AC=1 in Q.1 who do not name a candidate in Q.2a): Toward which candidate would you
say you are leaning, or support the most? (If respondent names a candidate in Q.2b, code as “Could be persuaded”
in Q.2c and do not ask. If respondent doesn’t name a candidate in Q.2b, code as “No first-choice candidate” in
Q.2c and do not ask.)
Q.2a
Choice

Q.2b
Leaning

Total

41
47
3
3
5

1
1
2
n/a

41
48
3
2
5

Joe Biden
Donald Trump
Someone else
Would not vote
Not sure/do not remember
Don’t want to tell (Already voted only)

Based on likely voters in the 2020 general election. Question language differed slightly in past polls.

Oct-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Mar-20

Not sure/
don’t
remember

Sample
size

Margin
of error

Joe
Biden

Donald
Trump

Someone
else

Would not
vote

Don’t want to
tell

n=814
n=658
n=674
n=667

±3.4% pts.
±3.8% pts.
±3.8% pts.
±3.8% pts.

41

48

3

-

2

5

47
43
41

47
44
51

4
9
n/a

1
n/a

3
3
8

n/a
n/a
n/a

(Based on likely voters in the 2020 general election.) Would you say your mind is made up to support that
candidate, or could you still be persuaded to support a different candidate?
Mind is
made up

Presidential race

Margin
of error

Oct-20
Oct-20
Oct-20

All
Biden supporters
Trump supporters

n=814
n=343
n=384

±3.4% pts.
±5.3% pts.
±5.0% pts.

94
98
95

4
2
4

-

2
n/a
n/a

Sep-20
Sep-20
Sep-20

All
Biden supporters
Trump supporters

n=658
n=301
n=315

±3.8% pts.
±5.7% pts.
±5.5% pts.

84
84
92

12
15
7

1
2
1

3
n/a
n/a

Jun-20
Jun-20
Jun-20

All
Biden supporters
Trump supporters

n=674
n=302
n=300

±3.8% pts.
±5.6% pts.
±5.7% pts.

75
80
87

20
19
11

1
1
2

4
n/a
n/a

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SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 2

Could be
persuaded

Not
sure

No firstchoice
candidate

Sample
size

 (Ask only of those who support Biden or Trump in Q.2a or Q.2b.) Which ONE of the following have you been
thinking about most in your decision to support [JOE BIDEN/DONALD TRUMP]? (Fill in answer to Q.2a or Q.2b.)
(Read list. Rotate).
His proposals for
the economy and
taxes

Oct-20
Oct-20
Oct-20

Biden or
Trump n=727
supporters
Biden
n=343
supporters
Trump
n=384
supporters

His
demonstrated
leadership

His ability to
restore what is
His vision for
good about
how to address
America
future challenges

His approach
to the COVID
pandemic

His approach to
Supreme Court
appointments

Other
(VOL)

Not
sure

23

19

22

7

9

4

10

5

7

20

26

11

18

3

11

5

37

18

19

4

2

5

9

5

(If already voted, ask:) In the election for U.S. Senate, for whom did you vote—[DEMOCRAT THERESA
GREENFIELD/ REPUBLICAN JONI ERNST], or for someone else? (Rotate candidate names.) (If already voted and
not sure, ask:) Do you just not want to tell, or do you not remember? (Then code AC=1 in Q.3c and skip to Q.3d or
Q.3e, if applicable.)
(If definitely vote, ask:) If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were [DEMOCRAT
THERESA GREENFIELD] and [REPUBLICAN JONI ERNST], for whom would you vote—[THERESA
GREENFIELD], [JONI ERNST], or for someone else, or would you not vote? (Rotate candidate names.)
(If definite voter names a candidate in Q.3a, skip Q.3b and ask Q.3c. If definite voter doesn’t name a candidate in
Q.3a, continue to Q.3b.)
(Ask only of definite voters who do not name a candidate in Q.3a:) Toward which candidate would you say you are
leaning, or support the most? (If respondent names a candidate, code as “Could be persuaded” in Q.3c and do not
ask. If respondent doesn’t name a candidate, code as “No first-choice candidate” in Q.3c and do not ask.)

Theresa Greenfield
Joni Ernst
Someone else
Would not vote
Not sure/do not remember
Don’t want to tell (Already voted only)

Q.3a
Choice

Q.3b
Leaning

Total

41
45
3
2
4
4

1
1
1
2
n/a

42
46
3
1
3
4

Based on likely voters in the 2020 general election. Question language differed slightly in past polls.

Oct-20
Sep-20
Jun-20

Someone
else

Margin
of error

Theresa
Greenfield

Joni
Ernst

n=814
n=658
n=674

±3.4% pts.
±3.8% pts.
±3.8% pts.

42

46

3

1

3

4

45
46

42
43

3
4

2
-

7
7

n/a
n/a

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SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 3

Would
not vote

Not sure/
Don’t
remember

Sample
size

Don’t want
to tell

 (Based on likely voters in the 2020 general election.) Would you say your mind is made up to support that candidate,
or could you still be persuaded to support a different candidate?
U.S. Senate race

Sample
size

Margin
of error

Mind is
made up

Could be
persuaded

Not
sure

No first-choice
candidate

Oct-20
Oct-20
Oct-20

All
Greenfield supporters
Ernst supporters

n=814
n=347
n=376

±3.4% pts.
±5.3% pts.
±5.1% pts.

89
93
92

7
7
7

1
1

3
n/a
n/a

Sep-20
Sep-20
Sep-20

All
Greenfield supporters
Ernst supporters

n=658
n=290
n=287

±3.8% pts.
±5.8% pts.
±5.8% pts.

75
83
87

14
16
13

1
2
-

9
n/a
n/a

Jun-20
Jun-20
Jun-20

All
Greenfield supporters
Ernst supporters

n=674
n=306
n=293

±3.8% pts.
±5.6% pts.
±5.7% pts.

68
78
74

23
22
24

1
1

7
n/a
n/a

(Ask only of those who support Joni Ernst; n=376.) Is your support for Joni Ernst more about your enthusiasm for
her as a candidate or more out of a desire for Republicans to keep control of the Senate?
Enthusiasm for
Ernst as a
candidate

Desire for
Republicans to keep
control of Senate

Other
(VOL)

54

6

35

Oct-20

Not
sure

4

(Ask only of those who support Theresa Greenfield; n=347.) Is your support for Theresa Greenfield more about
your enthusiasm for her as a candidate or more out of a desire for Democrats to gain control of the Senate?
Enthusiasm for
Greenfield as a
candidate
Oct-20

Desire for Democrats
to gain control of
Senate

Other
(VOL)

48

10

41

Not
sure

2

Which ONE of the following issues would you say is most on your mind as you think about how you will vote for
senator? (Read list. Rotate.)

Oct-20
Greenfield
supporters
Ernst supporters

n=814
n=347
n=376

Health
care

COVID-19
pandemic

The
economy

President Trump’s
performance in office

22
32
11

8
14
4

31
11
49

20
27
19

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SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 4

The Supreme
Court

8
9
7

Other
(VOL)

6
5
6

Not
sure

5
2
5

 Compared to:
Study #2224
803 Iowa adults,
including 658 likely voters in the 2020 general election
Margin of error: ± 3.5 percentage points for all Iowa adults
Margin of error: ± 3.8 percentage points for likely voters

September 14-17, 2020
Weighted by age, sex, and congressional district

Study #2216
801 Iowa adults,
including 674 likely voters in the 2020 general election
Margin of error: ± 3.5 percentage points for all Iowa adults
Margin of error: ± 3.8 percentage points for likely voters

June 7-10, 2020
Weighted by age, sex, and congressional district

Study #2212
800 Iowa adults,
including 667 likely voters in the 2020 general election
Margin of error: ± 3.5 percentage points for all Iowa adults
Margin of error: ± 3.8 percentage points for likely voters

March 2-5, 2020
Weighted by age, sex, and congressional district

Study #2183
803 Iowa adults,
including 659 likely voters in the 2020 general election
Margin of error: ± 3.5 percentage points for all Iowa adults
Margin of error: ± 3.8 percentage points for likely voters

February 10-13, 2019
Weighted by age, sex, and congressional district

Study #2168
801 Iowa adults,
including 656 likely voters in the 2020 general election
Margin of error: ± 3.5 percentage points
Margin of error: ± 3.8 percentage points for likely voters

January 28-31, 2018
Weighted by age and sex

About the Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted October 26-29, 2020, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des
Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 814 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they will definitely vote or have
already voted in the 2020 general election for president, U.S. Senate, and other offices.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 941 Iowa adults with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers
supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional
district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.
Questions based on the sample of 814 Iowa likely voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.4
percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19
times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.4 percentage
points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.

____________
SELZER & COMPANY
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